atans1

LUV-shaped recovery

In Economy on 01/02/2010 at 6:39 am

Forget abt L, U and V shaped recoveries.

Like Gaul, the world economy is now divided into three parts.

An L-shaped long-term low growth recovery in Europe; a U-shaped slow growth recovery in the United States; and a sharp “V” in emerging economies like India, Brazil and China.

As Singapore exports to all three, but esp to the first two (“ang moh tua kee”), we will have a “L” and “U” shaped recovery at the same time, depending on the sector.

Translated to listcos, those who export to the US (say Latitude. a furniture maker) will have gd prospects, while those that depend on Europe (can’t think of any) will stagnate.

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