Global stock markets hit their lows on March 9, 2009. Since then the MSCI World Index is up 71% . The rally is one year old.
Although FTSE 100 is hitting new highs (demand for commodities esp from China) , most other indices have seized since November 2009: reflecting a weakish economic recovery and serious concerns about the future (double dip recession, inflation, countries defaulting etc etc).
According to the people at Deutsche Bank, historically, a fantastic 12 months in the stock market has usually been followed by a “nothing to write home about period”: an average 3% decline since 1940 in the United States.
So it’s time to be cautious. Buy dividend stocks. I suggested it in Dec 2009 http://atans1.wordpress.com/2009/12/31/investment-strategy-for-2010/
Sumething ST guy suggested recently. So trumpets pls.
Back to the serious stuff. Today’s FT Lex pointed out that almost no new wagga came into the market: “… hardly anyone brought new funds to the rally and most leading indices remain below their peaks. In the US, for example, only a net $12bn was committed to equity mutual funds and ETFs over the whole of 2009, according to TrimTabs data, with only international equities receiving net inflows. Likewise professional money managers have only increased stock weightings again recently.”
And it concludes, “A year ago missing the bottom was the fear. After the mother of all rebounds, is the opposite fear niggling minds this weekend?”