atans1

Why MM and Sands differ on rampup?

In Casinos, Economy on 24/06/2010 at 7:48 am

Sands disagrees with MM’s view that it will take 3-5 years for its casino to get to full speed.

It is aiming for 150,000 visitors a day, and soon. And to beat analysts expectations. {Last sentence is an update on 24 June evening]

The message Marina Sands seems to be sending: it is for locals.

Unless I make very unreasonable assumptions (and assign high probabilities to otherwise improbable events) about immigration and the length of stay of tourists, I do not see how the majority of the 150,00 visitors to Marino Sands are ever going to be tourists.

Based on the 2008 tourist numbers (2009 was a bad year) there were only 10 million odd tourists a year and S’pore is aiming for 17m a yr visitors by 2015. Let me know if you can make the majority of 150,000 visitors tourists or FTs.

(If I assume that 120,000 of these visitors are tourists that stay a week here and visit the complex every day, this means Sands alone will bring in 6.2m visitors a year to S’pore.)

Perhaps that is why MM’s projections defer so much from Sands. He expects less local traffic than Sands.

Oh and if Sands says high rollers are coming, why the aim of 150,000 visitors a day? 150,000 sounds like the grind market, not high rollers.

Update on 16 July 2010. But Thomas Arasi, president and chief executive officer of Marina Bay Sands, gave a more conservative forecast. “We expect to attract over 70,000 visits a day and 18 million visitors a year after we are fully open,” he said.

For now, the casino alone attracts some 25,000 visitors daily and close to 500,000 visitors this month, one-third of which are Singaporeans, with two-thirds being foreigners. However, as LVS chief operating officer Michael Leven said, that is “a false number.”
“As we develop our business I think we’ll have around 20 percent of locals and 80 percent of foreigners,” he forecasted.
LVS officials expected the majority of visitors to come from three market segments, but they are also aiming at countries outside Asia.
The primary concentric-circle comprises Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia with the second being Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia and Laos. Finally, the third segment comprises Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, China, Korea, Japan, India and the Philippines. However, some Middle East and European countries are also potential markets for LVS resort in Singapore. “There is more than enough business for us to succeed here,” Adelson stated.

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