atans1

Whither global equity markets?

In Uncategorized on 23/07/2010 at 5:24 am

Three  divergent views from three brokers, and what fund mgrs are telling  me.

Credit Suisse is the most bullish.  It sees a strong recovery in the second half of this year and compares this yr to 2004, a disappointing first half followed by a great second half beginning in mid-August. Like in 2004, the catalyst will be a Chinese relaxation of tight monetary policy.

Citi, expects a weaker second half, but then says it wlll be a buying opportunity. Talk of having yr cake and eating it!

Merrill Lynch, believes that equity markets will not bottom out until year-end because markets will take until then to  realise that China is slowing down, and that their portfolios have too many bull stocks. It also has a series of technical indicators that point that way.

The fourth view increasingly held by investors, that brokers pitch their wares to is that it will be like 2002. A disappointing first half followed by a worse second half.

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