The problem is which direction. No-one has a clue.
As evidence, I cite the fact that the average share of “holds” across five major markets was 39% t. Now it is 60% (from FT)
The reason in my view is that analysts dare not make calls to buy or sell because of uncertainty abt the global economy and markets. Assumptions underlying a buy or sell may be undermined by market dynamics or by changing economic fundamentals.
Better to sit on the fence.
Another piece of evidence is that gold, government bonds and bonds are all strong. Gold is up because of fears of inflation caused by govmins printing money (quantatative easing). This shld mean weaker govmin bond prices but bond prices are strong because of the fear of deflation. Fear of deflation shld mean weaker equity prices but equity prices are strong because the view is that fear of deflation is leading govmins to print more money.
As to the historical relationship between gold and stocks http://atans1.wordpress.com/2010/10/07/equities-and-gold-go-opposite-ways/ . They go in opposite directions.
