Those cowards (like me) sat out August to November because thaz when historically major falls happen in the equities market. We looked like ball-less eunuchs we were as markets gained 5% and more after Fed annced QE II.
Those who bot in after the Fed annc. looked liked geniuses or at least proved that fortune favours the brave.
Well it seems we were all wrong. Aug – Oct are not always the only bad months. November could be too. And juz because Aug – Oct turned out better, it doesn’t mean clear skies ahead, with the wind behind us.
‘Tis labor lost thus to all doors to crawl,
Take thy good fortune, and thy bad withal;
Know for a surety each must play his game,
As from heaven’s dice-box fate’s dice chance to fall.
In this instance, no-one foresaw the roll of the dice whereby that the Germans would raise the issue of hair cuts for bond holders juz now. The eurozone countries had agreed to draw up rules for eurozone countries who needed to default by 2013.
The Germans started started two world wars in the 20th century. They now gunning to tame the investment community.
Update on 18 November 2010
Between Nov 5 -11 November, Merrill Lynch surveyed 218 US, European and Asian mutual retail and hedge fund managers managing a total of US$634 billion. In contrast to their pessimism when markets were depressed in the summer, the vast majority had become bullish on emerging and developed market equities and commodities.
They were dead wrong as of today.