atans1

Divining tonite’s results

In Political governance on 27/08/2011 at 7:04 am

(Update on 28 August 2011, 7.15am –My divination methods let me down badly. The two Drs between them only got 70% of the votes cast , not the 85% I expected.

I also got wrong the belief that the swing voters would not vote TJS, abt 10% seems to have done so. I was very wrong in thinking that 5 percentage points of the asses would vote for Dr Tan Cheng Bock. They remained solidly in the TJS/  TKL camps.

What I got right — TKL could lose his deposit, and my conclusions. It’s even worse for PM. Bigger majority, abt 65%, not happy with him, not the 50ish% I predicted.)

Assumptions

35% of the voters will vote for any donkey so long as it is a PAP donkey; 20% of the voters will vote for any Opposition ass if it is an Opposition ass; and the remaining 45% are the sheep who think they can think for themselves.

Predictions

The two doctors will between the two of them get 85% of the votes. The donkeys and mules will vote for either of them, and 5 percentage points of the asses will vote for Dr Tan Cheng Bock. The result will be a close one, with neither of the doctors getting an absolute majority of the total votes cast by the animals.  I hope TCB wins but it’s only a hope. Dr Tony Tan could win.

The remaining asses will vote for either Tan Jee Say or Tan Kin Lian. It is very highly probable that TKL will lose his deposit. But TJS could also lose his deposit.

Conclusion

PM better wake up his his ideas. The majority of S;poreans are unhappy about the

– unjustified commuter fare rise;

– repeated failures to secure MRT carriages and depots;

– attempts to tell us how we should vote on 27 August;

– Central Mediation Centre’s and MinLaw’s refusal to tell FTs that they are guests here, not our overlords, and must tolerate our culture and eating habits; and

– continued fixing of the Opposition by the PA (a government agency of which he is the chairman).

The vast majority of S’poreans are too smart to buy into the Kin Lians and Jee Says of this world. They know when people talk rubbish.

The vast majority of S’poreans are conservatives.

Brand PAP is toxic.

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  1. I urge netizens to unite, please vote rationally and strategically for TCB as President!

  2. I no survey or fish for info.
    Got many smses to vote
    for Tan Jee Say.
    And I will as urged.

  3. Hi again Uncle Cynical, once again our predictions are quite different. Today Sporeans will vote without fear of getting lameduck MPs running our town councils. Has economic hardship driven more Sporeans to the fringe (hence the pathetic whining that is prevalent online), or is everything hunky dory in lalaland?

  4. [...] Election – The Sketch Times: Crash or Survive? – Thoughts of a Cynical Investor: Divining tonite’s results – Singapore Life & Times: Singapore must Win – THE GIGAMOLE DIARIES: The elected President [...]

  5. I got to defend the CMC comment, though I do not necessarily disagree with the other points to some degree.

    As a trained mediator, I find it very disappointing that people think mediators order people to reach decisions. We merely facilitate the conversation, and we do not let our personal prejudice get in the way. It really is for the 2 parties to reach a resolution. We do not force an outcome. If there is no outcome, then it is up to the parties to seek other avenues to dispute resolution.

    • From yr point of view as mediator you are correct. But CMC must see the bigger, national pix that FTs must fit in, not the other way round.

      And the original article made Ms Giam sound as pretty pleased with herself that she pressured the local family. We are then told that’s not true. Hey but Today is not TRE or even TOC. It is part of constructive, nation building MSM.

  6. My family’s vote for TJS.

  7. Eh…your thinking not very consistent leh… if TT and TCB shares 85% of the vote, it is a strong endorsement of the PAP brand.

    I agree with your assumptions, but I think TJS will claim most of the asses, while TT will collect all the donkeys. That leaves TCB and TKL splitting the sheep, but I expect TKL to get only a single digit percentage. Probably 40% TCB, 35% TT, 20% TJS and 5% for TKL.

  8. 聪明就好不要假聪明

  9. Smart is alright but don’t act smart.

    聪明就好不要假聪明

  10. i support your analysis.

  11. TCB is the “Chiam See Tong” of this elections. People like him because he will question and may propose an alternative. But he will not rock the boat.

  12. [...] of a Cynical Investor believes the results reflect the ‘unhappiness’ of Singapore voters over the country’s leadership PM better wake up his his ideas. The majority [...]

  13. [...] of a Cynical Investor believes the results reflect the ‘unhappiness’ of Singapore voters over the country’s leadership PM better wake up his his ideas. The [...]

  14. PAP saw its margin of survival plummet from 20% in the recent GE (60% ayes less 40% nays = 20% margin) to a razor-thin 0.34% (being the lead DTT had over TCB). 65% of Singaporeans also voted against DTT.

    Had the PM done the following before PE2011:-
    (i) reduced ministerial pay by 65%
    (ii) reduced Presidential pay by 60%
    (iii) pledged to solve flooding by 2015
    (iv) relieve the congestion on MRT & buses
    (v) made a quantative pledge on imposing a quota on foreign influx
    (vi) produced HARD EVIDENCE PROOF of what DTT’s kids really did during NS to rebut all the malicious smears circulating on internet blogs and chatrooms
    (vii) promised all Singaporeans that they would be able to withdraw their CPF special a/c and medisave during their lifetimes and not after

    then DTT’s votes may rise to 90% and storm into Istana as a clear victor. As it is, DTT’s pathetic 0.34% margin of victory (if you could call it that!) is now a clear indictment of the collapsing moral authority of the PAPists. Less than one-third of a percentage point LESS, and DTT might have lost. 65% of Singaporeans have also repudiated DTT as their president.

    DTT – should be aware of this:- If Your Excellency walk into a hall of Singaporeans you can expect 65% of them not to stand up for you. You better avoid uncontrolled public gatherings for awhile. Stick to PAPists-controlled occasions with all seats and bleaches stuffed with die die diehard PAPist loyalists.

    If I were the PM, I would take this very very seriously and hold a huge PAPist corporate retreat to have a proper honest soul-searching to see why this is so. There are lost opportunities aplenty.

    • You are assuming that there will be another GE. Make no such assumption.

      It would be sad if S’poreans refused to stand if president TT came into room. He deserves our respect for hisv service to S’pore, not like PAP MPs like Tin, Puthu and Dr Lim.

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