atans1

Thailand & Philippines hip: Indonesia is history

In Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam on 02/08/2012 at 5:53 am

http://blogs.wsj.com/searealtime/2012/07/19/investors-look-to-thailand-philippines-as-indonesia-love-affair-fades/

http://blogs.wsj.com/searealtime/2012/07/11/indonesian-rules-dousing-u-s-investor-enthusiasm/

But Indonesia has a few things going for it:

– two major exports are recession-proof

    — lower cost producer of thermal coal and closer to China (tpt costs lower) than Oz means there will still be demand for its coal; and

    — palm oil cooking oil is the cheapest cooking oil;

– cheap labour attracting the likes of Foxcomm;

– last yr’s floods in Thailand are prompting MNC manufacturers to a “Thailand + one” strategy; and

– consumption now accounts for two-thirds of gross domestic product in Indonesia.

Malaysia is one of the most vulnerable Asian economies should a “perfect storm” of a disorderly debt default in Europe, a slowdown in China and the United States and rising tensions in the Middle East materialise, Roubini Global Economics said in a recent report.

The research firm, which predicted the 2008 global financial crisis, said Malaysia had the highest exposure to a pullout of capital as its euro zone and US bank claims amount to more than 25% of GDP.

The report said Malaysia was among the lowest ranked in terms of monetary and fiscal capacity to respond to a crisis, coming in ahead of only Thailand, Japan and Indonesia.

“Malaysia, Taiwan, South Korea and Vietnam appear to be the most exposed to a perfect storm through their trade and financial linkages, while South Korea, Australia, Vietnam and the Philippines … have the most policy space to offset such an external shock.”

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  1. In my humble view,Singapore is the most vulnerable S.E Asian economy should a “perfect storm” of a disorderly debt default in Europe, a slowdown in China and the United States and rising tensions in the Middle East materialise,China is he most vulnerable Asian economies Ex-SEA should a “perfect storm” of a disorderly debt default in Europe, a slowdown in China and the United States and rising tensions in the Middle East materialise.
    We shall know soon,I hope that I am wrong!

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