Attended a seminar last week on M’sian politics:
– It was analysed that Najib’s lack of confidence in achieving a two-thirds majority was the reason he kept postponing the elections. If he doesn’t get a two-thirds majority, Muhaddin would replace him as UMNO leader, even if BN won again, as widely expected. UMNO kingmakers expect any UMNO leader to deliver a two-thirds majority for BN.
(Note that CIMB’s CEO is Najib’s brudder, so if he goes, CIMB will have a new boss even if the current CEO is the best man for post. I’ve blog on this before, somewhere: type CIMB in Search). To the victors, the spoils.
– Although the Opposition is likely to win a maximum of 6 seats in Sarawak (out of 31) and 8 in Sabah (out of 25), Borneo is a problem for BN because if PR won a substantial number of seats in Malaya, and would command a majority if combined with BN’s Borneo seats, BN parties in Borneo (even UMNO Sabah) would have the excuse to switch if the terms were right. Victory for BN in Borneo was meaningless if it suffered serious reverses in Malaya.