Great point on City Harvest Church

This appeared on TRE

LIONS:

May 21, 2013 at 11:41 pm  (Quote)

As poor as the churh’s mouse.

now,we have ‘AS RICH AS CITY HARVEST’?

Singa’s FT replacement?

Shir Sultan, or the Lion King, from Kabul is believed have applied to replace Singa. Kabul-based, Shir Sultan. is employed to visit schools in the Afghan capital to spread the message of keeping Kabul clean and green says the BBC.

So if he comes here, the govt can have one mascot for two campaigns: courtesy. and a clean and green environment. And it will reassure employers that S’pore still prefers FTs to locals.  That taz productivity!

Watch out Productivity Bee. Shir Sultan can multi-task as the Lion of Productivity.

See how fit and tall Shir Sultan looks. Not fat and short, like Singa and the (un)Productive Bee.

But let’s not cry for Singa or the Bee. Remember ex-public servants like Goerge Yeo, Mah Bow Tan, Wong Kan Seng are enjoying their pensions. So will Singa and the Bee. And do remember that while Singa did a good job until the FTs came flooding in, Bee has never ever done anything for productivity but was kept on like Raymond Lim, Mah Bow Tan, GCT and Yaacob.

Related post: http://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/05/17/singas-resignation-the-hard-truths/

Town Council Debate: Cocks posturing & preening

Yes,yes Aunties’s not a cock but she sure behaved like Khaw and  Dr Teo. All these three, and the other supporting speakers didn’t try to bother to explain what the facts were. They juz tried to slime the other side, hoping that some mud would stick. No one drew blood.

I won’t bother to go into detail critcising what the PAPpies said as Sg Daily has done a gd job over the last few days providing links to a critique of the PAP’s position and its attacks on the WP. All I will say is that it confirms my view, many yrs ago, that the idea of town councils would come to haunt the PAP. It wasn’t even a gd idea at the time. Ah well, another black mark to Goh Chok Tong and one Lee Hsien Loong and their team.

I’ll juz make some points about what I found astounding about the WP’s position and netizens’ views.

I find it really strange that the WP thinks its OK for it to give a contract to its supporters but that it is wrong for the PAP to give a contract to a PAP linked company. The distinction escapes me. To me, “It doesn’t matter if a cat is black or white, so long as it catches mice”. (Deng Xiaopin).

The other point is Auntie telling Dr Teo to report the WP to the CPIB if he had evidence of wrong-doing. Err Auntie, why so more PAP than the PAP? Imagine if when Auntie first made her allegations, those many noons ago, the PAP had said the same to her. I mean she, WP and netizens would be bitching at the PAP for trying to hide something. And rightly so. So why like that Auntie?

Which brings me to the point that netizens are so anti-PAP that they unthinkingly cheer the WP’s position on

– it’s OK to give contracts to supporters, but not party-affiliated organisations; and

– trying to win the argument by telling other side to report the matter to the CPIB.

While the PAP has the 120% support of the constructive, nation-building media, netizens are 99.9% anti-PAP. Here’s a tot for the PAP: if the local media were less servile to the PAP, would the internet be a less hostile place to the PAP. Could the hostile environment on the internet be a reaction to the power of the PAP over the local media.

To end, it would be nice if both sides respected the other side so that we the public can learn the truth of the allegations. Here’s an interesting excerpt on the benefits of respecting one’s opponent, though the author readily admits it’s damned difficult,:

Just how charitable are you supposed to be when criticising the views of an opponent? If there are obvious contradictions in the opponent’s case, then you should point them out, forcefully. If there are somewhat hidden contradictions, you should carefully expose them to view – and then dump on them. But the search for hidden contradictions often crosses the line into nitpicking, sea-lawyering and outright parody. The thrill of the chase and the conviction that your opponent has to be harbouring a confusion somewhere encourages uncharitable interpretation, which gives you an easy target to attack.

But such easy targets are typically irrelevant to the real issues at stake and simply waste everybody’s time and patience, even if they give amusement to your supporters. The best antidote I know for this tendency to caricature one’s opponent is a list of rules promulgated many years ago by social psychologist and game theorist Anatol Rapoport.

How to compose a successful critical commentary:

1. Attempt to re-express your target’s position so clearly, vividly and fairly that your target says: “Thanks, I wish I’d thought of putting it that way.”

2. List any points of agreement (especially if they are not matters of general or widespread agreement).

3. Mention anything you have learned from your target.

4. Only then are you permitted to say so much as a word of rebuttal or criticism.

One immediate effect of following these rules is that your targets will be a receptive audience for your criticism: you have already shown that you understand their positions as well as they do, and have demonstrated good judgment (you agree with them on some important matters and have even been persuaded by something they said). Following Rapoport’s rules is always, for me, something of a struggle…

http://www.guardian.co.uk/books/2013/may/19/daniel-dennett-intuition-pumps-thinking-extract

S-Reits: Why stay away

Here are gd reasons not to come into S-Reits or to buy more.:

http://www.fundsupermart.com/main/research/viewHTML.tpl?articleNo=8173

Hongkie FTs more classy

Honk Kong-based throughbreds thrashed our FTs at a Kranji race meet. The results were so overwhelming that even our constructive, nation-building local media had to report the unvarnished truth: “Hong Kong horses sweep the top prizes at Kranji” http://www.todayonline.com/sports/hong-kong-horses-sweep-top-prizes-kranji

Hong Kong got the Talent Throughbreds, we got the Trash Throughbreds?

Same old story. SIGH.

 

How many more chances do the law-breaking M’sian FTs want?

So Lim Kit Siang of the PAP DAP is calling “Give M’sians arrested in S’pore a second chance”? Anwar’s gang wants to cause problems here, like what they are doing in M’sia? (“Pro-Pakatan Rakyat groups have vowed to overthrow the Barisan Nasional government this year through a massive street rally”)*

Since our police had already used a light touch on M’sian FTs who broke the laws on public demonstrations here, “Apa lagi Kit Siang mahu?”

Despite the police warning that it would take action against illegal demonstrations by FTs, some M’sian FTs ignored the police warning and 21 were arrested on Saturday 11th May. (Bet you these FTs  tot that  since DAP was conceived as PAP Clone, they can do what they like here because it is a PAP govt here. And anyway, because Kit Siang is a devotee of one LKY, sure can chum siong. Taz how politics and cronyism works in KL. And the irony is that the protestors want to change the system.)

Well the police had already shown a light touch with the first demonstration at the same spot (Merlion Park) on Wednesday, 8th May. There were on that day about 100 protestors according to the local media, but only nine (9%) were arrested and then warned by the police.

To show that S’pore is not a place for FTs to “import their domestic issues from their countries into Singapore and conduct activities which can disturb public order, as there can be groups with opposing views”, the police should have rounded up all the protestors on that day and deported all of them.

Back to the 11th May protest: the constructive, nation-building media did not give the numbers who protested on Saturday. Were the 21 arrested, only 9% of those who protested illegally: same proportion like Wednesday? Again they were only warned.

To be fair to the police,  those who took part in both demonstrations will have their passes to remain here revoked. The police should have arrested all the protestors on Saturday, and deported all of them.

Apa lagi mahu? Show some gratitude that the police used the light touch, Kit Siang.

Here’s some interesting (and valid bar one) comments from TRE readers on”the light touch”:

– you can take the foreigner out of their country but you cannot take their country out of the foreigner. why is the pap gahmen granting equal if not more privileges to new citizens and prs compared to true blue singaporeans in terms of subsidized housing, scholarships and cushy jobs?

– hey Must be charge for the illegal assembly. We are having different ethic all over the region in this tiny country, if the recalcitrant Malaysian are to let go with a slap on the wrist, next the Pinoys will start protesting here with the issue back home,then the Bangladeshi,then…depot them & charge hard!

– They should do their protest in JB. Not in Singapore’s soil. They come to earn a living so that is all to it. Why bring grieviences here? And some even begin to talk of Malaysia’s politics at work places.

Malaysian PR and work permit holders most of them are trouble makers. They are neither this nor that….sort of person. Cursing malaysia when they are here…back in their country curse Singaporean for being stupid etc…

I’ve worked with them for decades and the earlier batches were ok when they came… work hard marry our women and raises up family. And personally I have met their children and they performed NS and adapt to our system well. Mixed with other races and all that. But the same cannot be said by the recent batches of them. Ungrateful lot…shooo shooo shoo back to malaysia….true blue local born Singaporean don’t give a shit to Malaysia’s politics! whether Anwar be the PM of Malaysia or PM of Sungai Buloh or rot wherever pls when you come to work place don’t bring your shit politics here in Singapore

And here’s another reason to be tough: possible M’sian Chinese and Indian interference in S’pore’s politics.

And police investigate Singapore Writers and those mentined here

 “Is this a political website or one about writing & Singapore Writers? Why is it always posting about Malaysian politics?

 Singapore Writers: Good question. Thanks! This is a space for writers. And not only are lots of our better senior writers and veteran paid-up members like Catherine Lim, Ranjan Nair etc etc with Malaysian backgrounds but our rising stars like Serene Wee, Nat Sim etc are also from Malaysia (though they studied in SG).

 So important to keep abreast with political developments …”

 SG Writers is full of commentators, like this from Rajan Nair [TRE reader alleges that he is based in KL, being a S’porean-born PR who went home to avoid NS.]

“Some time around the late 1980’s the PAP lost its bearing and started to accumulate reserves for the sake of accumulating. Which was why they introduced an elected President with executive powers to “protect” the reserves in case a future non-PAP Govt squanders it away …

Note the president of Singapore Writers is an ex-RI rugby captain**in the 60s who stood as a WP candidate alongside  JBJ, Francis Seow in the 1998 GE. A quick check of Facebook shows that Rajan Nair , Serene Wee and Nat Sim are always criticising S’pore (not juz the PAP but TJS, TKL, WP, SDP etc) via Facebook. Gals, if S’pore so bad, pls go home: Rajan Nair moved on from here, join him. And M’sia too is bad, migrate.

—

*Anwar’s PKR is very friendly with our very own SDP. PKR, PAS and PDAP are members of PK, the opposition to the BN govt.

**Know him. Played rugby with him in the mid 70s during NS. Smart guy (He waz guy credited for thinking up the by-election strategy for the 1991 GE).but prone to conspiracy theories, and now thinks St Andrews is better school than RI. Still a political animal, despite his protestations. Last yr, he tried unsuccessfully to turn a celebratory function of ex-ST journalists, into a bash-the-PAP session. He failed. And rightly so: they were there to celebrate a strike comrade’s book, not play politics.

Related posts on the strike book:

http://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/02/03/wanted-expertise-on-organising-a-legal-strike/

http://atans1.wordpress.com/2012/11/26/when-devan-nair-was-jedi/

Estonia doing it, S’pore still talking about it

The inventors of Skype came from Estonia. More importantly, the economy there is using IT to leverage its productivity. Not like S’pore where FTs are thrown at any problem.

Estonian schools are teaching children as young as seven how to programme computers.

Estonia’s e-revolution began in the 1990s, not long after independence. Toomas Hendrik Ilves, then the country’s ambassador to the United States, now Estonia’s president, takes some of the credit … He read a book whose “Luddite, neo-Marxist” thesis, he says, was that computerisation would be the death of work.

The book cited a Kentucky steel mill where several thousands of workers had been made redundant, because after automatisation, the new owners could produce the same amount of steel with only 100 employees.

“This may be bad if you are an American,” he says. “But from an Estonian point of view, where you have this existential angst about your small size – we were at that time only 1.4 million people – I said this is exactly what we need.

“We need to really computerise, in every possible way, to massively increase our functional size.”

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22317297

Asean round-up

Global loan growth for HSBC: gd indication of relative economic growth rates. Asean and China is the place to be.

M’sias economic output for the first quarter grew a lower-than-expected 4.1%, dragged down by weak exports.Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had projected a median growth of 5.5%. More headaches for Najib. Well he can tell himself that the problems will not be his to resolve. Badawi must be chuckling to himself. This appeared before the elections http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/specialreports/malaysiadecides/news/najib-should-not-be-forced-to-resign-bad/661854.html

Indonesia’s IPO market is enjoying its busiest fiscal second quarter ever. Indonesian electronics retailer PT Electronic City became the 10th company to commit to selling shares to the public. Electronic City is reportedly planning to sell the equivalent of 25% of the company raising US$150 million in part to help open new stores.

Singa’s resignation: the Hard Truths?

I read this very good take on Singa’s resignation from TRE http://www.tremeritus.com/2013/05/16/an-open-letter-to-singa-of-singapore-kindness-movement/. It links the growing incivility here to the govt’s decision to flood S’pore with FTs and to have 6.9 people here by 2030.

But maybe the piece missed the point about Singa’s resignation. Maybe, the growing incivility meant that his job was at risk?

As two TRE readers pointed out:

Jeremy Chen:

Actually, they are replacing him with some new mascot. I think it’s a Bengali Tiger. But in view of his long service, they told him better to resign than to be retrenched. Looks nicer.

lampard chee:

the new mascot for our kindness movement is giant panda !!!

nowaday , sing is like little china , everywhere you go you will see ah tiong and ah tiong only … when you switch on TV , go to work , in the train , in the bus , super market , hawker center etc etc  …

They have a point. If Singa is not meeting his KPI of getting S’poreans to be more civil , so perhaps time to employ a FT who costs less? After all, Singa, as a senior public servant, must be earning millions. And maybe if he is replaced by an FT that is paid more, at least it’s an FT, not a S’porean in a senior post.

But let’s be fair, maybe he resigned because like true blue S’poreans like Gilbert Goh and Team TRE, he was fed-up with the effects of the govt’s policy of FTs by the container-load: rising public property prices, sagnating real wages and crowded public transport: all leading to greater incivility. Worse, he had to educate S’poreans to accept these conditions: in the name of courtesy and graciousness.

Here’s looking forward to Singa joining Gilbert Goh and friends at the next protest. Talking of GG, could he pls deny that Danny the SDP teh tarek loving bear was denied a speaking slot at both rallies because GG refused to believe that bears were native to S’pore, even if Danny did NS.

Related post: http://atans1.wordpress.com/2010/12/04/what-the-sdp-bear-tells-us-abt-ourselves/

Time to get real on retail Reits, and S-Reits generally?

Ong Kian Lin, an analyst with Maybank Kim Eng, wrote in a note dated March 22 that the recent S-Reit rally was not due to strong fundamentals but fuelled by inflated asset values from quantitative easing by the US Federal Reserve and ample liquidity.

He noted how retail and office property prices have gone up but rentals have been slow to catch up.

A Colliers International report reflected this divergence. As at the end of the first quarter of 2013, retail property rents in its areas of study have fallen from the previous quarter while capital values went up.

While maintaining a positive outlook for the retail and retail Reit sector, Savills’ Mr Cheong noted signs of trouble in that retail sales figures are trailing growth in areas such as tourist arrivals, population and inflation.

Retail sales fell 2.7 per cent in February. Tourist arrivals last year was 9.1 per cent higher than the year before. The consumer price index rose 3.5 per cent in February from a year ago. Total population growth was 2.5 per cent between 2011 and 2012.

The demand seen in the market right now is due to sentiment still being buoyant, Mr Cheong feels.

“At the moment it’s still rising, but it’s a binary issue. You cannot go and push to the tipping point, you push to the tipping point, everybody will bolt for the door like a fire in a cinema or retail mall. If everyone bolts for the door, everything will be vacated.”

NUS’ Prof Sing said retailers have increasing choices of malls. And the risk is that with greater choice, consumers may drift away from traditionally popular malls, leading to a downward spiral.

“When this happens, tenants will also start to move out. This cycle will continue, because you (as a manager) cannot pull in the crowd, I (as a retailer) cannot afford to pay such a high rent, I have to move out from the mall. So you put in another tenant that is not as good, so fewer people will come.”

Prof Sing and Knight Frank’s Mr Png said they are watching the Jurong East area, with several commercial and retail developments due for completion.

Retailers also have to cope with tighter foreign manpower policies.

“Much as the government would like to talk about productivity you find that retailers, the services business, is still very labour intensive,” Mr Png said.

http://www.cpf.gov.sg/imsavvy/infohub_article.asp?readid={4798875-17374-4688516258}

Err the issue of inability to raise income could also apply across the board to office and industrial reits too, given the economic slow down. Price rises can only depend on yields going down. FTR, I own various Reits.

Todds, even yr beloved, trusted FBI contradicts you

I juz read that the Todds threw a tantrum making more accusations against the police. Even this believer of the tendency of our police to do incompetent things (Example) thinks the Todds’ are going to far, now that a FBI report contradicted them

The external hard drive accessed by the Singapore Police Force (SPF) three days after American engineer Shane Todd was found dead in his Singapore apartment in June last year was identical to the one the Todd family handed over to the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) to examine in March this year, according to a report by the FBI.

 At the ongoing coroner’s inquiry into Mr Todd’s death, the court heard yesterday that the FBI had come to this conclusion after the SPF had officially asked the FBI on March 19 this year to confirm whether the two external hard drives were, in fact, one and the same.

 The FBI’s report appears to conflict with allegations made by the Todd family in a Financial Times report earlier this year, where his parents Richard and Mary said that they found the hard-disk drive at Mr Todd’s apartment themselves and kept it.

 According to the SPF, Sergeant Khaldun Sarif took the Seagate hard drive back to the Central Police Division after he was called to the scene of Mr Todd’s death on June 24, 2012. After viewing the hard drive on the night of June 27, 2012, he gave it to Mr Todd’s parents on June 28, 2012. (BT 15 May 2013).

Interestingly, they still do not deny the implication of the FBI report that they lied:

Their claim that they had found the hard disk drive has been central to their claims that their son did not take his own life. As I wrote here, I was about to stop reading the FT story and bitch to the FT that a reputable paper like the FT had better things to do than print the rantings of grieving parents. I didn’t because I next read that they claimed that had found the drive which implied that the police had missed it. The claim put things in a different light: our police could have cocked up, like over the Suntec beatings (Incidentally, we still don’t know the result of the police disciplinary action against the investigator. Can a PAP MP or Mrs Chiam ask? WP MPs presumably too busy handing out contracts to supporters)

As they had then wanted the FBI to supervise the investigations of our police (which annoyed me), the FBI finding that the drive given to them by the parents, is the same as the one the police gave the Todds, tells us they misrepresented the facts.

Sergeant Khaldun Sarif was generous to the Todds, yet they behaved like vicious snakes towards him. He could have played it by the book and retained the drive. He handed it to the parents and look at what they did. They claimed to have found it to give credence to their claims that their son was murdered, putting him in a bad light: that as investigator he had missed the drive.

The Todds are bad or mad: that’s the conclusion any reasonable person would draw from the FBI report. Grief over the death of their son is one thing, trying to fix  Sergeant Khaldun Sarif or blame others is another. But would bad people lie about the origins of the drive, and handed it over to the FBI? So grief may have driven them mad, and they tot that they found the drive?

 

Life insc buyers deprived of huge savings!

The following report from Monday’s ST deserves the widest possible publicity because it shows how buyers of life insurance here have been deprived of the opportunity to buy less expensive life insurance: they could have saved as much as $20,000 when buying a $1m life plan.

FUNDSUPERMART’S move to sell insurance products on its online platform at a 50 per cent rebate off the lifetime commission sparked some unhappiness among industry players who saw it as a price war tactic.

Four days after launching it on April 30, Fundsupermart took down the offer, and has stopped selling insurance products since.

On its insurance webpage, which has been removed, Fund- supermart said it was introducing the distribution of protection products as a value-added service to its customers.

“More importantly, clients who are on the search for transparency on the commissions they pay for purchasing insurance can find this here,” it added.

There were also two examples stating that the 50 per cent commission rebate translates into savings of $2,000 for a $1 million term plan. For the same sum assured, the savings for a whole life plan could be more than $20,000.

The calculations were aggregated across three insurance providers, based on the profile of a 40-year-old, non-smoking male.

The Straits Times understands that Fundsupermart initially intended to continue with this model but later revised it to a one-month promotion, before pulling the plug completely.

A check with Tokio Marine, NTUC Income and Manulife, whose products Fundsupermart was distributing, found that individual financial advisory firms are free to employ different business models.

http://www.cpf.gov.sg/imsavvy/infohub_article.asp?readid={4798875-17383-3900371789}

According to the report, financial advisers (what insurance sales persons call themselves,nowadays, for various reasons) bitched to Fundsupermart: The Association of Financial Advisers (Singapore) said in an e-mail statement that when the advertisement was published on Fundsupermart’s website, the association expressed its members’ concern to Fundsupermart, “noting that the tone and language used in its postings could be detrimental to the reputation and professionalism of other financial advisers”. [Err wondering what reputation and professionalism? What can be lower than the reputation and professionalism of life insc sales persons? Used car dealers? Juz kidding leh.

The industry body, representing nearly half of the financial advisory firms here, added: “We are glad that it has taken our views into consideration and has decided to withdraw the advertisement.

Hopefully some human rights or other kay poh activists will kick up a fuss, though I’m not holding my breath: They focus on things like ISA, capital punishment, FT workers rights and other things fashionable with ang moh social activists, not with the concerns of median S’porean wager earners.

So here’s hoping Tan Kin Lian of Fisca will organise a protest or write to the press to highlight the loss of this scheme; or for Uncle Leong to get Mrs Chiam to ask in parliament that the the competition authorities investigate whether there was undue pressure to remove the offer. Note that the agents’ trade union emphasised that “All financial advisers are free to offer their competitive deals to their customers. We believe that in such an environment, consumers will ultimately benefit in terms of both quality of advice and pricing.” Ya right, so how come no one offers to give such big rebates, and why the bitch to Fundsupermart when it cut its commission rates?

Doesn’t smell right, does it?

Meanwhile, three cheers to ST for highlighting this issue.

Failed at Olam, now trying luck at StanChart

 

Carson Block Is Shorting Debt of Standard Chartered

 

 

Carson Block, the short-seller who runs Muddy Waters LLC, said he’s betting against the debt of Standard Chartered Plc (STAN) (STAN) because of “deteriorating” loan quality, triggering a 13.5 percent jump in the cost of insuring against losses on the debt of the British lender.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-12/carson-block-says-he-s-shorting-standard-chartered-debt.html

Somehow I don’t expect StanChart to go berserk like Olam, “Carson Block is outside of the bank and does not have access to the bank’s loan files,” said Jim Antos, a Hong Kong-based analyst at Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd. “He has very little ammunition in his gun to shoot at Standard Chartered at this point. He’s got one example of a large loan that appears to be something that possibly would not have been prudent to book.”

Why gd GDP growth but “peanuts” pay increase

Since I wrote “PM, this can’t be right? 5.9% GDP but 0.4% wage increase?”, I’ve read something that illustrates that it’s the distribution of GDP growth that matters, not GDP growth by itself. Hopefully someone who reads this blog and has personal access to PM will forward to him this extract from an Economist blog.

To see how the distribution of growth affects incomes, imagine a country of just ten people, with one earning $1,000 a month, another earning $2,000 a month, and so on up to the tenth, who earns $10,000 a month. Between them, these ten people earn $55,000 a month. Now suppose that in a year the economy grows by a modest 1.8%, so that there is an extra $1,000 to go around each month. If the richest person captures all that growth, it will give him a 10% pay boost. But he will hardly feel it, because he is already rich, and the average pay rise across the entire population would be just 1%. But if the poorest resident got all the extra money, his income would double. That would make a huge difference to his life—and the average pay rise in our little country would be a whopping 10%, far higher than the meagre overall growth rate. In general, the more of the $1,000 that goes to those on lower incomes, the bigger the average pay rise it causes, and the more impact it has. (Emphasis is mine)

What has happened here is that between 2000 and 2011, the earners of the median wage (those only getting 0.4% real wage increases) have not been getting most of the average 5.9% GDP growth. It went to those above the median wage: hence the ever rising COE prices and private property prices. The latter, meant that under Minister Mah HDB prices (remember the land cost) went up affecting the median wage earners, and the poor.

It also meant that increasing GDP via FT inflows was not in effective helping the median wage earner. The benefits of GDP growth went to the above median earners.

Finally what it means is that S’pore can have slower growth that benefits the poorer and median wage S’porean: provided the distribution of GDP growth is tilted towards the below median and median earners, away from the above median earners.Pigs would fly first.

Related post: http://atans1.wordpress.com/2012/08/13/inflation-why-the-misleading-picture-minister-media/

Keep using the platform Sports Council

The Marina Bay floating platform was meant to be a temporary structure until the Sports Hub was completed. But it was reported in ST today that it will be staying put for at least a while longer. The Singapore Sports Council (SSC) – which owns and manages the platform – told ST that it is “considering retaining the facility for recreation, sports and community use”, even after the hub is completed.”

Keep using it until it becomes to expensive to maintain SSC. It’s something different.

Hope it gets used “permanently”. Thanking SSC in anticipation.

AsiaOne pix

M’sia: stagnating, festering economy ahead

M’sia’s not a gd place to invest in is the conclusion to be drawn from the election results. Najib is likely to be replaced by someone who is less willing to make the nec economic reforms[See Update]. And why should he politically? The status quo benefits UMNO barons, and even a stagnating festering economy can be milked for many yrs to come. Anyway, the vast majority Chinese voters were not satisfied with Najib’s actions and promises, so why take risks.

UMNO (and I agree with this analysis) sees what the Chinese did as taking sides in a Malay civil war between Anwar* and UMNO for the goodies that come with power. Nothing wrong with the Chinese trying to take advantage of this situation to get rid of racial discrimination, but they got to live with the consequences now that Anwar lost.

The consequences will be a stagnating economy, UMNO hostility and having to dance to Anwar’s tune. Note that immediately after the election, Lim Kit Siang said he accepted the results, while Anwar was bitching. Well DAP soon fell in line with Anwar, despite it having more seats in parly than Anwar.

Update: http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21576654-elections-may-could-mark-turning-point-never-ending-policy and two of u/m charts gives some reasons why reforms are needed: PMETs are leaving, workers are not skilled, high govt debt and underperforming. (Note charts from FT were pre 5 May)

—

*PAS had to take Anwar’s side because both the religious leaders of PAS and the younger activists (young, Malay PMETS) have a problem with UMNO’s corrupt culture. PAS supports Anwar through gritted teeth. He is not trusted. PAS has more respect for the DAP because it like the PAS hates corruption. The sooner PAS becomes a moderate Muslim party along the lines of the ruling Turkish party, the better for M’sia. The young Muslim professionals in PAS are trying hard to change the party, and thankfully the ruling PAS old guard are old.

Is MU a short?

By conventional financial yardsticks, the club is grossly overvalued at $3bn (£1.9bn) while also carrying £368m of debt. Now that the most reliable asset is giving up front-line duties, the stock deserves to be a double “sell.”

The valuation issue is basic: revenues were only £320m last year and half that sum was paid straight out as salaries. At the operating level, profits were only £44.9m. That entire sum was then consumed by finance costs of £49.5m, leading to a pre-tax loss of £4.7m. Naturally, there was no dividend …

Ferguson kept the club in the Champions League every season and collected trophies. In doing so, he made the Glazers’ optimistic financial assumptions work.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2013/may/10/man-utd-alex-ferguson-bt-co-op

For the record, I admire Moysie’s track record at the Toffees and respect MU for choosing him, not not some European super star manager management consultant who only know how to spend money to win trophies. MU bought homegrown talent, not FT.

Indonesia: Export woes slow economy

Indonesia’s economy grew at 6% in the first three months of the year, its slowest pace in more than two years, as exports slowed.The expansion was slower than the 6.1% reported in the previous quarter, compared to the same period the year before.Last week, the statistics bureau said exports had fallen the most in seven months in March.Analysts said the declining expectation of the global recovery led to a further weakening of global commodity prices.

Its government has set a 2013 growth target of 6.8%.

A few weeks ago, the CEO of Astra (the dominant vehicle distributor) said he expected slower sales, in a FT interview.

BTW, no Asean round-up this week.

PM, this can’t be right? 5.9% GDP but 0.4% wage increase?

For incomes to rise, the economy must grow, Mr Lee said in his May Day message, making clear the centrality of economic growth which has been disputed by some who are worried about foreign workers and inequality, according to the local media. This is a repeat of, “Everyone would like their lives to become better and one important way of doing that is to make sure your pay goes up, especially with low-income workers. And for the pay to go up, the economy has to grow,” he had said in April. 

So I’m looking forward to hear what the govt has to say about Uncle Leong’s assertion that he estimated that from 2000 to 20111, the real growth in the median wage excluding employer’s CPF contribution was only 0.4%per annum., (FYI, Singapore’s economy grew at an average of 5.9% annum from 2000 to 2011*), After all, the govt was quick to counter his comments about the rent increases on Ubin.

Somehow, I doubt that the govt would contradict him because in a paper sometime ago, the Dept of Statistics  reported that between 2000 and 2011, real wages increased by 1.6% pa including employer’s CPF contribution. Uncle Leong juz took out the employer’s CPF contribution.After all, this money is not easily accessible, given the restrictions on the use of CPF money.

More interesting than Uncle Leong’s comments is that the NTUC minister (Zorro Lim) said:

“Wages can still go up despite slower economic growth.

‘This, provided that Singapore continues to get its policies right, said labour chief Lim Swee Say” on Saturday 27 April, ST reported.

True, this doesn’t contradict what PM said, but does imply that the link between wages and economic growth isn’t as clear cut as what PM says it is. And that it is also dependent on govt getting “its policies right”. But what if it gets its policies wrong (like HDB flats**, public tpt** and FTs by the truck-load).

We suffer while ministers earn their salaries and are protected from being sacked for incompetency, until the voters show their anger, and the ministers “resign”?

————

*

Year	GDP%
2000	9
2001	-1.2
2002	4.2
2003	4.6
2004	9.2
2005	7.4
2006	8.6
2007	8.5
2008	1.8
2009	-1.3
2010	14.8
2011	5.2

(Dept of Stats)

**To be fair policies in these areas have undergone U-turns. But S’poreans are suffering from Mah’s and Raymond Lim’s goof-ups. I make no comment on the FT policy because I’m not sure if the govt is walking the talk until I see more numbers. Also after the 2008 M’sian GE, there was a influx of FTs from M’sia, afraid that the Malays would take out their parangs like in 1969. Given the 110% support that the Chinese gave the DAP in the recent election, and the failure to PK to defeat BN, I’m sure the Chinese are feeling vulnerable again.. Will they try to come again, and will the govt allow them in despite its promise to cut back on FT inflows?

Would this ever happen in a local school?

Would a teacher allow it? Would any student think of it?

A teenager whose self-made Iron Man suit became an online hit has said the experience has inspired him to undertake a career in costume … “Last year my tech teacher said, ‘you come up with an idea’ and I didn’t really want to make a table, so I thought, ‘why not?

Archie Whitehead, 17, from Welwyn Garden City, spent 300 hours making the suit for his school project.

 He said he had received offers from US fans to buy his suit, but said his main aim was to go to university and improve his craft.

 ”I would really love to do this as a career,” said the Iron Man fanatic.

 ”I know the majority of the studios are based in America, so whether or not I could go there, we’ll see.” …

Alongside the offers to buy the suit, movie fans have also emailed him to see if he would make them bespoke Iron Man costumes – a decision, he said, he would make after his exams.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-22436253

Er Lee did not pick-up dog’s faeces: shows contempt for law and neighbours

ST reported Er Lee as saying “My dog has a habit of going out, maybe because she was a stray dog. We don’t have the habit of confining her as we want her to be as comfortable as possible”. TRE report

As someone who has owned dogs for over 50 years, I was appalled to read this. Not only is this in breach of an AVA rule (“All dogs must be properly confined within the owner’s premises”), but it also shows contempt for her neighbours. When the dog runs out, can she guarantee her dog doesn’t pass faeces?

Not picking up a dog’s faeces when walking a dog is an offence, and rightly so. Faeces left in the open are a health and pollution hazard.

I’m sure Er Lee would argue that “Not my fault. Dog ran out.” But why did she leave the gate open, and not confine the dog? We sometimes leave the gate open but when we do, we always ensure the dog is always in the house and the steel door is closed. BTW, all my dogs were strays. I keep them confined but walk them regularly.

Whatever it is, we should give ST two cheers for reporting the story. It highlights that PAP MPs too can be irresponsible, law-breaking citizens. Irresponsibility and criminality, are not confined to social activists or opposition party members or activists. PAP MPs too do these things, notwithstanding PM’s (and his dad’s) boast that the strictest criteria are used. Ot maybe rules less strict for FTs?

 

HPH Trust: Cost of strike settlement

Port workers in HK agreed to a pay increase of 9.8%, after initially demanding a hike of more than 20%. This works out to an increase of 5.6% to the costs of HPH Trust.

Earlier post: http://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/04/25/hph-trust-time-to-buy/

Can now focus on analysing the revenue prospects. Watch this space.

Revisited: Shld consumer financial products be regulated like drugs?

Recently, shumeone by the name of Steve Wu (Wu Chee Wah of Foxtrot in SAFTI in 1974?) has been ranting about the 1990s DBS/POSB* deal on TRE. This reminded me that in 2008, 2009 (remember minibonds and DBS HN5?) he was one of those calling for Tan Kin Lian and other experts to certify that financial products are safe for consumers. TKL and GMS too called for this, so he was in good, even if not intellectually sound, company. (Sorry  GMS, couldn’t resist that jibe. Buy you a MacCafe coffee when you next in town.)

Pharmaceutical firms must convince the health authorities that their product is safe and valuable before it can be marketed. Likewise consumer financial products must face a process similar to that for new medicines is what they argued.

This in turn reminded me that last yr I read a piece arguing why this analogy is wrong. Drugs can be tested empirically via tests in the laboratory and field studies in the physical world. Financial products CANNOT be tested beforehand because the only laboratory is the market, and how does one conduct field studies in such a situation?

It’s tempting to see the harm financial products can cause and liken it to medication which, if not thoroughly tested, can also serious illness or death … New drugs can be tested in trials and in a lab. There is no equivalent for financial products. The only laboratory is the market. To effectively balance efficiency and safety, a good regulatory system should observe financial products closely in the wild and only then determine which pose a threat.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2012/04/financial-innovation

Actually, the piece gives other reasons, that I think are rather weak.

There are no short cuts to buying any financial product. Actually there are two short cuts: don’t trust what an insurance agent, or bank staffer says is one . And go ask Tan Kin Lian or Uncle Leong. Pay their fees if necessary.

——

*I hope he realises that

– Temask got paid in DBS shares;

– foreign brokers were complaining that non-Temasek were being diluted because the price at which the shares were issued gave Temasek a double dip (cheap shares for over priced asset);

– he innocently misreps the deal by focusing on NTA valuations. POSB’s profitability and deposit base were shrinking because the govt had removed POSB’s unique selling point: interest on. POSB a/c exempt from income tax (all interest from banks got exempted from incometax). Our three local banks are trading around 1.3x trailing book value while the leading M’sian and Indon banks would consider, anything less than 2x book value sissy stuff: they are growing more rapidly in terms of assets, profits etc; and

– DBS didn’t think much of its acquisition. For many yrs after the acquisition, it was running down or at best ignoring the brand. Only when true blue S’porean banker, Peter Seah, became DBS chairman did it start taking advantage of S’poreans’ love of the POSB brand.http://atans1.wordpress.com/2010/06/18/dbs-why-is-it-reviving-posb/

–

DPM Teo gives FT MP three tight slaps.

The S’pore National Olympic Council (headed by DPM Teo) gave the ping-pong association and its president, FT MP Lee Bee Wah, three tight slaps by rejecting three of their selections for the coming Asian Youth Games. Only an RI boy made it because he met its criteria. Two of the rejects were Sports School students.

Lee Bee Wah’s association tried repeatedly to fix the selection process in favour of Sports School students despite SNOC’s repeated objections. It failed and ST reports that its CEO is bitching about SNOC’s decision. What did he expect? That its M’sian-born MP was more tua kee than SNOC’s administrators? The result is that the association and Ms Lee have lost a lot of face.

Well done DPM Teo and SNOC. Thanks for showing that meritocracy is not a dirty word here, unlike in M’sia.

Update: Juz read in ST that FT MP’s recently adopted dog has gone missing. Tak boleh tahan her? So decide better to risk being culled by roaming the streets?

SMRT/ LTA: Another PR problem round the corner?

Questions have been raised over the health impact of high levels of tiny airborne metal particles discovered in a European underground train system.

Millions of people travel on underground urban transit systems in cities across the world.

Researchers at Southampton University say metal in the air thrown up by trains running on metal tracks could pose a health risk.

Airborne particles small enough to be inhaled are known to damage health.

They increase the risk of developing asthma, lung cancer or cardiovascular disease.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-22404446

Related post: http://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/05/05/smrt-can-still-wait/

 

Cramers tips for younger US investors

They include pharma; social media, the cloud, mobile, and the web; and gold

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100674767?__source=ft&par=ft

NParks hates greenery? Doesn’t talk to other govt agencies?

I was sad to read this in Sat’s BT

THE Moove Media cows started grazing on Singapore’s landscapes again yesterday and will continue to do so until May 26. Moove Media, the advertising arm of ComfortDelGro Corp, has teamed up with the National Parks Board (NParks) to launch a “Happy Cows, Happy Hearts” campaign to celebrate Singapore as a City in a Garden, as well as to promote graciousness and kindness.

All 600 cows – which are made using recycled plywood and printed using eco-solvent ink – carry a red heart on their backs. They will be displayed alongside over 1,000 30-inch-wide red hearts made up of fibreglass in about 50 locations including Raffles Place, Orchard Road, Esplanade – Theatres on the Bay, Fort Canning, Braddell and Sengkang.

Surely there are better, more imaginative ways to celebrate 50 yrs of  the “greening”* of S’pore than by putting up 600 artificial cows in parks? True, it didn’t cost NParks any money. And true, it would not be practical to have 600 cows or even 600 goats or sheep grazing our parks. But surely the irony of celebrating S’pore as a Garden City with artificial cows must have occurred to the mgt of NParks?

It could have got corporate sponsors to pay it to plant a few “instant” trees around Speakers’ Corner to give shade to those using the corner. And that would have had the additional adv of scoring points with those who want to lessen the place’s capacity.

Or seriously, what about a commemorative roof top garden, along the lines of those roof top gardens built by the HDB (see below). And paid by corporate sponsors? This could showcase the imaginative way S’pore is developing the Garden City theme to cope with 6m people.

Oh I forgot, NParks doesn’t talk to other govt departments. NParks didn’t talk to the police recently. It asked Gilbert Goh to apply for a police permission for his May Day protest because of “foreign participation”, even though he clarified that there were no foreigners organising, or speaking at the protest.

“When contacted by Yahoo! Singapore, a member of the Singapore Police Force (SPF) said that foreigners can attend and watch the protests at Hong Lim Park without a need for permit. There will only be a need for permit should there be foreigners organising or speaking at the protest.” (Yahoo! report)

Currently, Singapore has more than 50 hectares of rooftop greenery islandwide in public and private buildings such as housing estates, schools and shopping centres.

Mr Khaw said this puts Singapore among the leading cities doing it.

Besides creating a green oasis for residents looking down from higher floors, the rooftop greenery provides space for community interaction and helps to cool down the surroundings.

Residents could enjoy the use of community gardens, foot reflexology paths and study corners at these MSCP rooftop features, Mr Khaw said.

He cited Jurong East and Dover Crescent as examples of how rooftop greenery is helping residents relive the kampung spirit, where neighbours get together to plant flowers, herbs and vegetables.

Mr Khaw said that the HDB has plans to implement nine hectares of rooftop greenery in existing MSCPs within the next few years.

(From CNA report several months ago)

He also talked of experimenting with vertical plant growth i.e. on the sides of HDB buildings. That would be something.

Related post: http://atans1.wordpress.com/2012/06/19/my-spore-a-greeneer-more-pleasant-land/

——-

*It was in 1963 that one LKY started the first annual planting tree planting campaign. http://atans1.wordpress.com/2010/12/10/lest-we-forget-mms-responsible-for-our-greenery/ Enhancing property values, must have been one of the aims.

M’sia: Surprised BN didn’t raise this

Coming the way of MAS and AirAsia, if PAS and its secular buddies come into power?

NO RED lipstick, no red nail polish. These are the new rules for flight attendants on Turkey’s national carrier, Turkish Airlines (THY). The ban has provoked a furore among secular Turks, who fret that under the ruling, Islam-rooted Justice and Development (AK) party, Ataturk’s cherished Republic is hurtling towards religious rule.

… stirred similar controversy in February when it proposed new “chaste” uniforms for attendants. These included ankle-length caftans for women and silver-brocade coats for men. Secular Turks howled in indignation and, in the event, the designs were scrapped. Claims of creeping Islam did not, though, alter the carrier’s decision to ban alcohol on most domestic flights and on flights to eight destinations in Africa and the Middle East. And last year management eased bans on the Islamic-style headscarf for ground service personnel (though not for cabin crew.)

http://www.economist.com/blogs/gulliver/2013/05/turkish-airlines

M’sia: Why God is not taking sides

But first, what doesn’t get reported on internet or in S’pore media: the M’sian govt reported that a Pew Research Center poll showing that 82% of Malaysians were “satisfied with the way things are going in the country”, up from 76% in 2007. Pew is a respected US polling outfit.

Can’t stop laughing at this prayer going round internet asking M’sians to pray, “Dear God if you are there/ Is it too much to ask/For a leadership /With honesty, integrity and conviction /To create a brighter future”

Problem is that neither leader has honesty, integrity and conviction. One’s a product of the BN system. The other has betrayed his Muslim comrades in 1982 when he joined UMNO, the then UMNO Deputy president in the early 199os to take that post , and then Dr M in the late 1990s when he tried to be PM. After he was sacked, overnight he called for “Roformasi”.

If Nik, one of the Lims or Mrs Anwar were PK’s de facto leader, then there would be a leader with  honesty, integrity and conviction. But taz not the case.

 

 

 

SMRT: Can still wait

SMRT’s FY2013 profit missed expectations as cost inflation outpaced revenue growth. Margin pain will persist until SMRT moves to a more sustainable business model. Until then, not only are profits at risk, so are dividends.

Dividend payout was cut to 45 per cent versus its previous 60 per cent policy. FY2013 core net profit met only 92 per cent of our and consensus estimates. We cut our FY2014-15 EPS estimates by 21 to 27 per cent and introduce FY2016. Our target price (discounted cash flow, weighted average cost of capital 6.5 per cent) falls to $1.26. CIMB April 30.

The last target price I saw, six months ago I think, put it at 1.33. Not sure whose.

Buying for yield requires co to have a sustainable business model, something that SMRT admits it doesn’t have. Keep on watching.

 

M’sia in three charts, PAS on hudud and UMNO self-sabo

From FT.

Letting in the professed limb choppers

In 2009 the DAP left the Kedah state government over a series of measures that were seen to curtail non-Muslim rights in the state. This included Azizan’s failure to stop the demolition of a pig slaughterhouse as well as the state government’s decision to raise housing quota for bumiputras from 30% to 50%. Several measures such as the attempt to ban women from performing on stage during Chinese New Year and turn Kulim town into a “no-alcohol” district, did not go down well with many non-Muslims.*

—

Dr. Harun Din, the deputy spiritual leader of PAS has stated unequivocally that the hudud laws will be implemented if the PR were to take over government.

Many ulama in PAS are envisioning the formation of the hudud belt in northern Malaysia if PAS can wrest Perlis and Terengganu while maintaining control over Kedah and Kelantan. This vision is diametrically opposed to the DAP’s vision of a secular state with a more moderate Islam being the dominant strand.*

Self-sabo

The above problems PK has in Kedah should see the return of BN there.

However the likely choice of Mukhriz Mahathir as the next chief minister of Kedah has resulted in disgruntlement amongst some UMNO leaders in the state. UMNO in Kedah seems to be divided into the pro-Mahathir and anti-Mahathir factions.*

(*Mohamed Nawab Mohamed Osman is a Research Fellow with the Malaysia Program and Contemporary Islam Program at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.)

Update: On Asean round-up this week.

1.5% GDP growth this yr?

Yesterday it was announced that the manufacturing sector continued to expand last month, though at a softer pace, in line with expectations of a gradual and modest recovery as global economic uncertainties continue to linger.

Factory activity in April, as measured by the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), was at 50.3, a marginal dip of 0.3 point from the previous month but still above the 50-point line that divides expansion and contraction.

The slight decline resulted from slower growth in new orders and new export orders, said the Singapore Institute of Purchasing and Materials Management (SIPMM), which compiles the monthly figures. (Today)

BT reported last week that DBS cuts growth rate from 3.2% to 2.5% but Credit Suisse reiterates forecast of 1.5%, http://www.cpf.gov.sg/imsavvy/infohub_article.asp?readid={27464576-17231-7047640680}

As I’ve blogged before, a major issue for S’pore (and M’sia and Penang in particular) is the decline in PC sales. Last month, IDC,  a research firm, said that in the first quarter of 2013 worldwide PC sales fell by 13.9% to 76.3m units, their steepest decline since 1994, when records began. People have been slow to buy PCs with Windows 8, Microsoft’s latest operating system, but they are still buying tablets or smartphones. S’pore and M’sia are major organisms in the PC ecosystem. They are for all intents and purposes no-existent in the Android (Google) and Apple ecosystems.

And the bright spot in PC sales is not much help for HP and Dell which sources stuff from M’sia and S’pore. In China, not only are PC sales still rising; they are evenly split between desktops and portable notebooks, which globally make up 64% of the market. China overtook America in sales of personal computers (PCs) last year, to become the world’s biggest PC market. According to IHS, a research firm, shipments to China amounted to 69m units, against 66m to America.

The biggest player in the PC space in China is Lenovo, a home-grown company that bot IBM’s PC biz.

Will S’poreans be protesting about caste discrimination soon?

If you go to TRE, there are plenty of postings claiming that our S’porean Tamils are being oppressed and bullied by FT Indians who claim that they are higher caste than our true-blue S’porean Tamils:expecting them to look up to and respect the FTs. I don’t know the truth of these allegations (as there is plenty of “noise’ and wind on TRE*). And it is a fact (not a Hard Truth) that most of the Indian FTs who come to work in the IT industry are ethnic Tamils.

The number of non-Tamil, “whiter”** Indians are “peanuts”.

But before we dismiss these comments as xenophobic comments:

– There was a Nepalese lady who joined SPH in the early noughties. She went to a senior SPH editor (Tamil Indian by origin) and said to him, “I’m a high caste Brahmin. What caste are you?” And this guy was more senior than her! Everyone in the newsroom was stunned because caste had never ever been an issue.

– Caste discrimination is to be outlawed in the UK, Business Secretary Vince Cable has announced in what is a U-turn on previous government policy.

Campaigners had said legislation was needed because thousands of people suffered abuse and prejudice because they were considered low caste.

They said existing laws offered no protection and said caste divided society unfairly, with those at the bottom expected to do dirty, poorly paid work while also being expected to – and forced to – look up to and respect higher castes. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22267147

“Caste discrimination has been going on for decades (in Britain). What we have found is that it has actually increased over the last decade or so because of social media and people have gone back to their previous caste identities.”

So it does exist in the UK, a very liberal society. What are the odds of it happening here where there is a wide spread perception among locals and FTs that the govt prefers FTs to locals?

When true blue Singaporeans complained (and produced evidence) that they were being discriminated by employers who wanted FTs, the govt treated these complaints as “noise”. Well post 2011 elections, things are different. Recently MoM Tan has implicitly admitted that there is problem when he said MoM had taken action against such employers. And PM just on May Day said that, companies must have a S’porean core. Would he have said if he didn’t accept that there are employers who discriminate against locals, preferring FTs?

Hopefully our govt will be more pro-active and vigilant in combating caste discrimination should there be evidence of it here. The issue of job discrimination against locals was allowed to fester because the govt behaved like blind and deaf frogs. It only got real after losing votes for itself and Tony Tan in 2011.

For the sake of social harmony (and the self-interest of the PAP), let’s hope the govt is alert to the possibility and evidence of caste discrimination.

—

*My pieces get republished there.

**My Tamil and Indian Muslim friends tell me that the “whiter” ethnic Indians are usually high caste. The darker one is, is usually taken as a mark of coming from a lower caste.

Johor: Will PK’s racial tactic work? & the case for race-based preference

In the 2008 GE, Johor remained a BN stronghold. It won 25 of the 26 federal seats, and 50 of the 56 state seats. This time round, DAP’s Lim Kit Siang is talking of winning 19 federal seats. Why? He smoking ganja? His and PK’s unstated reason is the “Chinese” factor. As I’ve blogged before, about 70% of the Chinese polled in M’sia will support PK (even if it means supporting a PAS candidate who wants to chop off limbs and segregate the ladies from the men at supermarket checkouts): they are that angry with UMNO and BN. And Johor has a sizable Chinese population in many seats.

But an ISEAS* Fellow predicts that BN will remain a BN stronghold on the federal and state level (PK doesn’t seem to expect to win the state). The Chinese vote will go the PK way, but the Malays will still, just, vote UMNO and its allies. Malaysian Elections – The Battle for Johor.

And surprisingly for a publication that is forever grumbling against race-based preference policies (see its take on M’sia) in a blog posting that otherwise reaffirms its grumbles, a staffer wrote in the context of the US:

For all its shortcomings, affirmative action is one of few tools that has helped to disrupt this feedback loop [Of inequality begetting more inequality] over the past few decades. Elite schools practicing affirmative action produce more black and Hispanic graduates who find success in their fields and engage in greater civic activity with individuals of all races. But in states prohibiting racial preferences, minority enrollments at selective colleges have shrunk while white students have seen only a trivially small gain in their prospects for admission. The percentage of students of colour in graduate programmes has dropped 12% overall in four states that have banned affirmative action, with declines as high as 26% in engineering. Race-neutral attempts to admit more minorities—measures like the top 10% plan at the University of Texas, which was supplemented by the race-conscious provision now under judicial scrutiny—also have difficulty matching the outcomes of affirmative action. If the Supreme Court draws a line in the sand against the consideration of race in university admissions next month, it will likely burnish, not erase, the colour lines that still divide the American landscape.

—-

*While ISEAS is a stat board funded by the S’pore govt, its researchers who analyse M’sia are in the main pro-Anwar M’sians. Hence this analysis is interesting, even if writer is ang moh.

DBS still loves Reits

It prefers those with stronger earnings growth potential and/or have potential to deliver earnings surprises. Preferred S-Reits are Perennial China Retail Trust (PCRT), MGCCT and Cambridge Industrial Trust based on their upside potential.

PCRT is seen as attractive due to its valuations and earnings visibility as operations are ramping up at its malls. New development assets are also completed and seen generating cashflow. Target price is around $0.84.

MGCCT offers investors “an attractive opportunity to own iconic, best-of-breed commercial assets”. The trust has resilient cashflow with strong organic growth drivers. The target price at $1.18.

As for Cambridge, its completed acquisitions and asset enhancement initiatives (AEIs) are expected to contribute positively. Its target price is seen around $0.93. I personally am not comfortable with Cambridge because it lacks a tai kor.

It advises investors who benefited from price gains in Mapletree Industrial Trust, AReit, Suntec Reit and Parkway Life Reit shares, to consider selling these.

These Hongkies must wish NTUC represented them

The striking port workers say their real wages have fallen in the past 17 years, while their working conditions have worsened. They say many work 24-hr shifts without toilet or lunch breaks, FT reports.

S’pore needs FTs like these! PSA should bring them in, and offer them 18-hr shifts without toilet or lunch breaks. Our port workers do 8-12 hr shifts with toilet and lunch breaks in-between. Throw in the right to buy “subsidised” HDB flats, and they will be be forever grateful to the PAP, unlike our present port workers who loved JBJ.

Bet you this piece doesn’t get republished in TRE. It shows S’pore in a gd light!

Related post: http://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/04/25/hph-trust-time-to-buy/

 

M’sia: Self sabo is the problem for BN & PK

About a third of the seats on the peninsula will have more than two contestants. “Independents” (largely those not nominated to stand by BN or PK ) are contesting

A few weeks ago, Najib said that BN could win a 2/3s majority if there wasn’t “internal sabotage”. He was talking of passed-over candidates at the state and federal level taking revenge by trying to ensure that the BN candidates selected in their place lost to the opposition. This has always been a problem for BN because of the goodies available to office-holders: hence the jealousy and willingness to support the opposition.

PK had problems  in deciding how to allocate seats among PAS, PKR and DAP, and self-sabo may be a major problem, outside Kelantan and Trengganu, both PAS strongholds. Interestingly in the analysis of “independent” analysts I’ve heard speak on the chances of PK winning the election, this issue had never been raised. But they were confident that within the BN ranks, there would be self-sabo.

And interestingly while the DAP and PAS seem to be disciplined internally, there are signs that Anwar’s PK is having problems BN style.

Two cheers for Azmoon Ahmad for publicising 1 May rally

The chairman of AMP deserves the thanks of Gilbert Goh and friends, and all those who call for “Think S’porean First” for the publicity for the rally. By asking Nizam Ismail to “disassociate himself from the AMP” if he was planning to speak at the rally, according to this TRE report, he (Azmoon) ended up helping publicising the 1 May rally more widely.

When the local media reported him as “emotional and close to tears”, maybe he was feeling low because he knew he wasn’t long for the cushy job of AMP chairman. Surely the Sith Lord is upset that an Imperial Storm Trooper (Non Combat) saboed the Dark Side’s attempts to keep news out of the rally out of the pages of our constructive, nation-building media? And of having to explain why PAP MPs are more equal than others when it comes on serving on non- political organisations. And that the govt still practices the Hard Truth of withholding funding of those who fall out of line. [This last sentence added after first publication at 7pm]

As to Azmoon’s comments about “attacks”, err waz wrong with Nizam telling S’poreans why he resigned? In fact, if the local media carried the official spin of why he resigned before he went public (I’m not too sure which came first because the dates of the various articles have confused me), then he is more than justified to explain his position. Juz countering the spin.

Nizam is walking his talk of being transparent and open.

Which bits of world are growing faster or slower

Does SAF really value those who serve NS?: TRE readers respond

TRE republished this and Danny related his experiences both with the SAF and SCDF (who seems to be as dysfunctional as SAF) over his eligibility for a medal (Juz realised I never got one for reservist). The issue was resolved in his favour because he had all his records. I’d hate to have served with such an “on” guy.

Still when it came to vouchers he got short-changed by SCDF. He finally wrote to the PMO who must have shoved a few grenades up some asses. Justice was done. But he shouldn’t have had to complain to PM; given that his records were juz (OK 10 months ago) updated by SCDF and SAF.

I was given NS45 $80 voucher and that bcos I did not complete my NS till age 40.Problem is I did. They don’t have my record? Well, 10 months earlier when I wrote to Army (NS) Centre regarding my entitlement to medals but was old by an officer that I was not eligible for it. On probing further, they said that they had handed my records to SCDF when I was transfered there after my Army unit standown. Calling SCDF (NS) Centre, they claimed that I had only 1 ICT during my term in SCDF thus not entitled to any medals n that I should go back to the Army (NS) to claimed from them n that SCDF did not had my Army records. I was pushed around! On further call to Army (NS) n threaten to go public, the officer claimed that they don’t have my NS records. Bloody hell, they lost my NS records but conveniently lied to me that I was not eligible! Then mindef (NS) told me that unless I can shows or provides evidences n records of my reservist trg, I will not be able to claimed/entitled to any medals! Fucking shit! So I am guilty till I can proof I am innocent? Fart them!

Luckily I still had all my records after ROD for 28 years! KNNCCB,after submit in my records only they emailed me saying I am entitled to just 1 medal! This was bcos to Army (NS) n SCDF, I did not come my reservist up to aged 40! Farting shit! They only interested only the nos of years trg in their own formation and did not take into consideration my combined Reservist training in both SCDF n Army! This is nothing compare to what follows: After having proof and they claimed they had updated my record, the trouble came during the NS45 vouchers. I was given $80 voucher n again claimed I did not complete my full term. I called the Officer which handled my “medal entitlement case” n she promised she will look into it. Days & weeks passed,I wrote in saying that if they wouldn’t get back to me I will go to different avenue to appeal. Since SCDF under Home Affair n Army under Mindef and they seem don’t talk to each other , I have no choice but write to someone who is incharged of both these stupid ministries! I wrote to PM Lee HL and received an email saying that the matter will be look into by SCDF! Back to square one! Two weeks later, an SCDF Asst Director (NS) called to said that its an oversight and I will be given an extra $20 n a year Hometeam Club menbership!! I told him to I wanted it in black & white and also told him that I am more interested in those Reservist (nos in thousands)who had the same problem as me but were shortchanged! He claimed that they are looking into it and assured me that these people will be informed n their entitlement adjusted. My friend, same case as me, will swit n see (2 weeks time) if they will really adjust his entitlement. If not, I will call this AD and gave him a piece of my mind n go public. Anyone out there same case, pls leave amsg…thks.

Then there is this post that alleges that National Service Resort & Country Club allows FTs to join, crowding out those who serve from chalets and other goodies.

whyliketat1:

April 26, 2013 at 10:17 pm  (Quote)

Does SAF value those who serve NS ?

Let get the answer from NSRCC. Read on and you will find the answer NO.

National Service Resort & Country Club (NSRCC) is a golf and country club set up to recognise the contributions of operationally ready NSmen to Total Defence. Its membership is open to NSmen who have performed national service, as well as full-time NSmen.

The first Committee to Recognise the Contributions of Operationally-Ready NSmen mooted the idea of setting up a premium but affordable golf resort for NSmen. The club was officially opened in March 1994 as SAFRA Resort & Country Club. It was later renamed National Service Resort & Country Club (NSRCC) to better reflect the composition of its membership that comprises NSmen from the Army, Navy, Air force, Civil Defence and the Police Force.

http://www.nsrcc.com.sg/about-the-club/national-service-resort-country-club

Now, it even open for Non-Citizen who did not serve national service.

Bungalow and it facilities is open for non-citizen booking. No wander member got difficulty in getting a unit. http://www.nsrcc.com.sg/bungalow/booking-information

I don’t understand why NSRCC need to open our club to Non-citizen.

The club is set up to recognise the contributions of operationally ready NSmen to Total Defence. Its membership is open to NSmen who have performed national service, as well as full-time NSmen and their family. This is spelled out clearly at the website.

Dear MG Ng Chee Meng, President of NSRCC, you owe all Singaporean an explanation.

A gentle reminder, you are only appointed to over see the club. This club does not belong to you. I believe the money used to setup and running of this club is from the tax payer.

You are also an army trained man, same as any NS men, your life long mission is to protect the country and Singaporean.

Please keep a place for Singaporean.

If the PAP wants to win back disaffected voters, it had better realise that because it has been in power since 1959, dumb or lazy bureaucratic actions gets blamed on it. Maybe it’s co -driver should remind it of this too. Otherwise S’poreans may prefer SDP: The Real Deal, Mad Dog and elites notwithstanding

Gd Point on govt

But everything the government do is to serve its own purpose. We are lucky if one of its purposes happen to coincide with ours. It is not the same as saying the government exists to serve the people.

The chap who put this up on his Facebook wall is one Donaldson Tan, chief editor of New Asia Republic, a wannable TOC, that never took off. He is also a tech entrepreneur.

Wall St wants to party

The American economy grew at just a 2.5% annual pace in the first quarter, it was reported on Friday . While that is up from a 0.4% performance in the fourth quarter of 2012, it came in below expectations for growth at or just above 3%.

But the DJ was up marginally because of the  3.2% rise in consumer spending during the first quarter is the fastest rate since the fourth quarter of 2010.   Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of US economic activity and  it grew at a pace of 1.8% in the fourth quarter of last year.

Home construction also rose further keeping the market focused on looking at the bright side and not on the industrial production and employment numbers that came out earlier in the month.

Related post: http://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/04/27/fourth-yr-in-a-row/

Fourth yr in a row?

In each of the past three years the global economic recovery (read that of the US) started with a burst of momentum, only to swoon over the spring and summer. Likewise stock markets.

There are now signs of a repeat,what with

– weak US jobs numbers for March;

– US manufacturing sector grew at its slowest pace in six months during April, a survey has suggested; and

– the American economy grew at just a 2.5% annual pace in the first quarter. While that is up from a 0.4% performance in the fourth quarter of 2012, it came in below expectations for growth at or just above 3%.

Asean round-up

Thai banks are warily watching for signs of a credit bubble, even as they make record profits on robust loan growth on the back of a strong economy.

Bangkok Bank, Thailand’s largest lender by assets hasraised its loan-loss reserve coverage to 203.3% of non performing loans (NPLs) in the first quarter, more than double the central bank’s minimum requirement.

The Bank of Thailand has cautioned banks on rising household debt in South-east Asia’s second biggest economy, and expressed concern that cheap home loans could cause a steep rise in prices similar to that seen in Singapore and Hong Kong.Thai banks say there are not worried about a property bubble, but concede there is a possible excess supply of condominiums along Bangkok’s mass transit routes.

Fresh from leveraging up to buy a stake in insurer Ping An (he borrowed US$5.5bn), Dhanin Chearavanont is borrowing US$6 billion to finance a takeover of Siam Makro. Combining the Thai cash-and-carry group with his 7-Eleven convenience store chain makes sense. He co-founded Siam Makro with Dutch group SHV in the late 1980s, but was forced to sell out in 1998 when the Asian crisis left his empire overextended (soon to be repeated?). Sentimentality aside, the combined business should also be in a stronger position to expand into neighbouring Southeast Asian countries such as Laos and Myanmar.

The reunion is expensive. The offer price of 787 baht per share is 75% above where Siam Makro was trading at the beginning of January, and values the business at 53 times last year’s earnings. The advantage is that both Siam Makro and CP All, Mr Dhanin’s partially listed Thai retail company, currently have no debt.

“No business as usual if opposition wins Johor: Anwar”. So too said Lim Kit Siang. This means Iskandar will be affected.

“Leaders of Indonesia & Singapore discuss ways to boost close ties” Err what about the forest fires that come round this time every yr for decades? I’m bullish on Indonesia but taz despite its dysfunctional govt.

Does SAF really value those who do NS?

There has been plenty of spin in the local media about how much SAF cares about us (example that “safety is a core value”). Well here are three instances in the last few weeks that contradict the spin.

“Combat medics are not fully equipped to handle asthma attacks among Singapore Armed Forces servicemen, a Coroner’s Inquiry into the death of Private (Pte) Dominique Sarron Lee heard”, I read on Tuesday in Today. The death happened during training.where the training team knew smoke grenades were going to be used. Surely the necessary eqpt could have been indented for the medic on duty?

And then there is this:

Defibrillators for all SAF camps soon

The Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) is planning to put automated external defibrillators in all camps from June this year.

The potentially life-saving devices will be kept in common areas for easy access in emergencies, such as when a serviceman suffers a heart attack.

These include “high human traffic” areas in camps and military bases where physical training is conducted, said the Ministry of Defence.

http://www.asiaone.com/News/Latest%2BNews/Singapore/Story/A1Story20130401-412691.html

When I read the above, I was shocked to learn that external defibrillators were not standard equipment in SAF camps*. In developed countries, they are standard equipment in factories, and increasingly in offices. And they are standard equipment in the military.  After all as, “The SAF’s Chief of Medical Corps, Colonel (Dr) Kang Wee Lee, said having easy access to the defibrillators will improve a first responder’s ability to administer basic life support, and is in line with international best practices.”

And to round-off my rant about the uncaring, boh chap, tidak apa attitude bof the SAF, here’s something trivial by comparison to the above but telling in its own way of the way SAF treats us, PRspeak notwithstanding.

Last week, I got my package of vouchers from SAF. I only got $80 and not the $100 that was touted in the local media as the standard. Was I surprised? No, because I had read on TRE that Mindef had told someone “From our records, you have not completed any ICT before reaching statutory age.” It went further to state that “Should you have any documentary proof that you had attended ICT, …please send it to us …”.

I don’t know how many of us were affected by the inability of Mindef to keep proper records, but I find it insulting that Mindef did not keep proper records. Every time anyone goes for reservist training, he is paid a sum based on his civilian pay, or on his NS pay (for those who didn’t want to give or couldn’t give civvy pay details). Where are these records? And where are the copies of the  notices, ordering S’poreans to attend in-camp training?

Worse is the tot that Mindef could be trying to save money by not bothering to check its records properly. After all $20 multiplied by say 100,000 is not “peanuts”.

Never mind, come the next GE, I’m sure no matter how much goodies the govt throws at us at our expense, there will be S’poreans who remember the SAF’s institutionalised uncaring attitude, and attribute it to the PAP.

—

* To be fair to SAF:”Medics already carry the devices to all training activities with risk of drowning or heart trauma. These include physical fitness tests, route marches and river-crossing exercises.”

Dr M has a point about racial division.

Dr M has been getting a lot of stick on his comments that M’sia is becoming more racially divided. Well he has point going by the data contained ISEAS analysis on M’sian election Malaysia’s GE13- A Tale of Two Manifestos. Two-thirds of the Cina polled are against the BN. There are decent majorities of Malays and Indians in favour of BN.

Either the Chinese are racists, or as is more likely, not enough goodies for the Chinese, or they are plain greedy (most likely?).

Update on 26 April: Evidence of racism http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=474361509301974&set=a.198955503509244.49839.186134701457991&type=1&theater ?

Thanks to you know who ))))

HPH Trust: Time to buy?

Is it worth a buy? HPH Trust has fallen 4% since the strike in HK. Its handling capacity is back above 80%, having fallen to below 50% when the strike began. But the gap between oits wage offer (7%) and the strikers’ 20% demand, is big. And even its 7% offer adds 4% to total costs calculates CLSA.

And there is China’s slowdown and competition.

Nah let’s wait to see the terms of the settlement. Remember buy this for yield, not capital appreciation.

Faith Community Baptist Church alleges AG gagging order

AG has been getting a lot of stick from netizens about its warnings to various netizens. While AG clearly has the law on its side, and is using the light touch rather than a rattan cane, I think it is a PR disaster for the govt and the administration of justice. Even some netizens deploring the AG’s actions tell me that most of the offending comments were looney and fact free. I don’t know as I never read them.

With the above in mind, I hope the AG throws the book at the Faith Community Baptist Church, locks up those responsible, and then throw away the key if the following allegation is false.

In a story on 377A, the BBC reported “The Faith Community Baptist Church said it could not comment to the BBC, citing an order by the Attorney-General’s Chambers.”

Order? What order? I checked around and even AGC insiders are surprised that they issued such an order.

The closest one insider could think of  is this media release from AG in January: Sub Judice Reminder on Public Comments for and against the “repeal” of section 377A,Penal Code.

Unless, the church can show that it has received an order from the AG, it should be prosecuted for making AG sound like the secret police of Nazi Germany or the USSR or China: I leave the details of what law to use to the discretion of the AG in his wisdom.

A church purporting to believe in and teach Christian values should not misrepresent the truth or slime “Caesar” (the state) juz because it is convenient and politick to do so. Especially when it knows that its words will be reported round the world, not juz S’pore. And by a respected media organisation that carries int’l credibility: not SPH or MediaCorp.

And this church has form in misrepresenting facts. The same BBC story said: Senior pastor Lawrence Khong of the Faith Community Baptist Church is one vocal advocate against any change in the law.

In his statement when former prime minister Goh Chok Tong was at his church in January, he said that “the repeal of similar laws have led to negative social changes, especially the breakdown of the family as a basic building block and foundation of the society”.

“It takes away the rights of parents over what their children are taught in schools, especially sex education.

“It attacks religious freedom and eventually denies free speech to those who, because of their moral convictions, uphold a different view from that championed by increasingly aggressive homosexual activists,” he added.

Waz the proof of these allegations? Juz look at the USA, UK, Oz and NZ: all have decriminalised homosexuality and what he claims hasn’t happened.

If the AG takes the Faith Community Baptist Church to ask for saying that it cannot comment because of “an order by the Attorney-General’s Chambers”, I’ll be on the AG’s side.

Where are the app developers from RI & other elite schools?

In the last few days, education seems to be a hot topic if one goes by the reports in our local media: all part of the NatCon. I’m sure the Media Bahru will soon be putting its spin on the issues reported by Media Tua.

Well I’ll raise here an issue that doesn’t seem to fit in with a sub narrative that our elite schools are (or not) producing the kind of S’poreans we need.

In the UK, where private schools are the elite schools, students from the elite schools are producing world-class apps

… interviewed Nick 13 months ago … he came from a successful, wealthy family who had opted to give him a private education.

A day after Nick started counting his millions [Yahoo! bot his app which summaries news articles], an email dropped in my inbox about another teenaged developer.

Schoolboy Tom Humphrey has launched an app designed to help language learning by combining dictionary definitions with digital translation tools. He also happens to go to Eton College. [UK's most elite school. Costs about S$60,000 a year in fees]

Meanwhile teenager Nina Dewani, who was interviewed by the BBC last month after designing a password-prompting app, attends a private school in St Albans.

It could be a coincidence, but these young people join a long line of tech entrepreneurs who attended private schools and found fame for their creations.

Sir Tim Berners-Lee went to an independent school, as did Bill Gates (although he later dropped out of Harvard to set up a software company), while child prodigy Mark Zuckerberg had a tutor who helped him start writing software.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-22032013

Well, where are the world-class app developers from our elite schools? Let alone tech entrepreneurs.

Or is apps development reserved for this school: School of Science and Technology aims to nurture students to be innovative.

A student there “is pitching his business idea of an app which helps busy working parents remember their baby’s feeding schedule.”

Sports School students represent S’pore in ping-pomg, and SST students pitch uses of to-be-developed apps. Err who develops the apps? Poly students? Technical Institutes’ students?

My serious point is that if the students of our elite schools are not doing cutting-edge things that their counterparts in the West are doing, there must be something seriously wrong with the education system? A topic worthy of NatCon: “Where are the app developers from RI & other elite schools?”?

BTW, any comments about “exam factories” will be spammed. Taz a dumb comment to a complex and serious issue. In the UK and US, the elite private schools get more than their fair share of students into elite unis. In fact, critics complain they take away places from students from state schools.

Great Recession and Not-So-Great Recovery: “Cat in the tree” analogy

The Nobel Prize winner George Akerlof of the University of California – had a vivid analogy for the state of uncertainty the economics profession now faces.

“It’s as if a cat has climbed this huge tree – the cat of course is this huge crisis. My view is ‘oh my God the cat’s going to fall and I don’t know what to do’.”

Another one of the organisers, David Romer also of the University of California, picked up the analogy: “The cat’s been up the tree for five years. It’s time to get the cat down from the tree and make sure it doesn’t go back up.”

The trouble for the economics profession is, according to the last of the conference hosts and another Nobel Prize winner, Joseph Stiglitz: “There is no good economic theory that explains why the cat is still up the tree”.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22223249