atans1

When Mad Dog meets Tua Kees

In Humour, Political governance on 13/01/2013 at 8:49 am

Or “Chee, Sylvia & Low should resume taking their medicine”

While I don’t agree with everything this TRE piece said about Dr Chee, I must say I agree with, “We wait for Dr Chee’s next move. All this is more entertaining than reality TV, if it were not so tragic.”

I’m wondering if he has stopped taking his “anti-wacko” pills (What say you Drs Ang and Paul?). His behaviour increasingly resembles that of Ravi when he stopped taking his medicine. And I’m someone who thinks SDP should contest Punggol East if Sylvia, Low and the other WP leaders continue their tua kee ways.

For the future development democracy in S’pore, there is a need to prove or disprove the thesis that the SDP is carrying the WP. A three-way or more fight will prove or disprove this thesis in a PAP bastion. The PAP  won by 11 percentage points over the combined WP and SDA share of the voters. Taz a solid majority that is impossible to overturn even in a straight fight. So why not turn it into a test of strength between the Wackos and the PAP clones?

Who can mobilise the hard core anti-PAP votes?

“Happy” responded an anti SDP rant to this republishing on TRE saying, among many other things, “The SDP should garner around 20% of the votes. They too know this. However this is what they would like the WP to know should they not want to compromise. There is actually more for the SDP to gain than the WP should the results turn out as such. 8) The WP will be made to realize the reality that their 40% margins were due to one party fights in most areas. The SDA is not a credible party in the eyes of the people.”

Based on the 2011 presidential election, Happy would seem to have underestimated the hard core anti-PAP vote which ranges from 25-30% (25% that voted for Tan Jee say and 5% for Tan Kin Lian). The “Always PAP” is 35% (they voted for Tony Tan), while the remaining 35% that voted for Dr Tan Cheng Bock are the discerners, “pick and choose”, moderates, “swingers” or people who don’t do religion. It is many in this 35% that the WP are able to persuade to vote for WP.

But these votes are insufficient without the block vote of the hard core ant-PAP voters. The “chop” system ensured that the WP gets this block vote in the areas it contests, even if these voters do not like the WP. They vote WP because they hate the PAP more.

As the PAP is unlikely to lose Punggol East in a straight fight with any opposition party (what with a margin of 11 percentage points over the combined SDA and WP vote), the contest is a good way of showing the WP that it needs the SDP more than the SDP needs the WP. The WP Aljunied MPs want to keep their $15,000 allowances and the life-styles it allows them to lead.  They can do this in the next GE only if they play ball with SDP, according to Happy’s thesis.

And he could be right. In the 2011 presidential election, I’ve been reliably informed, that Tony Tan won 40ish % of votes in the Aljunied area, and TJS came in a close second. Dr Tan was nowhere near. This shows the power of the anti-PAP vote in Aljunied GRC. It also shows the depth of feeling against the PAP: even Dr Tan is haram. What more near-clones like the WP?

Tua Kee WP

So Low, Sylvia and other WP leaders: don’t be tua kee. Be the humble WP pre the Aljunied win. What I find strange about the WP’s arrogance  is that juz after the 2011 GE, when talking to a WP leader (not Low or Sylvia), he was fretting over the loss of the anti-PAP vote, if the SDP decided to play rough. He said the WP needed these votes, while it tried to attract the moderates. Have the WP leaders forgotten to take their “humility” pills, since then?

The WP shouldn’t take the risk that the SDP is right about the votes it can mobilise. If the SDP is wrong, the consequences for the SDP is less devastating than the consequences for the WP if the SDP is right. Whither PritamS’s dreams of being a cabinet minister in a coalition with the PAP?

Cut a deal

The WP should talk to the SDP, offering not to compete in Tanjong Pagar GRC, in return for SDP not contesting Punggol East. Remember

– “Pride goeth before destruction, and an haughty spirit before a fall.”

– “A man’s pride shall bring him low: but honour shall uphold the humble in spirit.”. Remember the humblessness displayed by Low, not the arrogance of JBJ and son.

And Dr Chee should start retaking his “I’m a rational man” pills, and double the dosage. Or least pretend to. He may be a coyote, doing crazy things for rational game theory reasons, but public perceptions matter. And to the public, brought up on US cartoons, not the fundamentals of game theory, the coyote is mad. This doesn’t matter to the hard core PAP haters, but it matters to the moderates. I’m one of the moderates but I’m from RI, and I know the basics of game theory. Besides, I got an affection for wackos with balls.

Otherwise SDP and WP, “A plague a’ both your houses!”. No wonder the PAP rules OK.

Related post:

http://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/01/11/punggol-east-be-gracious-generous-wp/

——

*RI boys got 65% of the votes in the 2011 PE. It also shows that RI can produce a clown, brawler and gentleman operative, all with brains and balls. Eat yr heart out Saints, and other RI haters and self-haters. RI rules OK. And remember Mad Dog Chee, and Tua Kee Auntie and Low never went to RI. LOL, is all one can do with the antics of these politcans.

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  1. Dr Chee is a very talented man,LTK is less talented but better at playing chess,both started around the same time as leaders of their political parties,LTK went from 1 seat to 6,7 and even more seats,Dr Chee started with 2 and now zero,I vote for LTK as far as chess is concerned.we have to wait and see how this chess play out,we are all blessed as we are mere spectators,TCSS only.With the absence of our Master chess player,LTK is the winner.

  2. So now we see how Dr Chee plays chess in his coming back .Play well till 2016 when PAP formally disappears!
    SDP withdraws from Punggol East by-election in shock move – Yahoo!
    sg.news.yahoo.com/sdp-withdraws-from-punggol-east-by-election-in-shock-move-082525479.html

  3. why is this blog becoming like the local sites to air political grievances ?

    • Because like PAPy Puthu, “I’m invested in S’pore”. Got to protect, grow my investment. Increasingly the issues around safeguarding and protecting my investment centre around the goofs of the govt, which is PAP.

  4. There is the saying: If you can’t beat them, join them. Grow your investment by tucking under their wings if one feels the heat being on the bickering side ?

  5. You see, there you go. I’m here on your site because of your title “… investor”. I’m not here to keep reading all the bickering and name calling. Since you are an average smart person writing sensible investment views, then you should just keep to it. There are already plenty of local political “feedback” sites, to which we have already read their views.

    To my earlier point: if one feels being squeezed out of a good investment here, then go somewhere else – capital mobility. Otherwise, read in between the lines of what is being said and or announced, study the trends, keep an open mind and leverage local knowledge to better one’s investment here.

    • Wah Lan, You really tua kee. My blog, don’t charge you, yet you want to tell me what to write. If not happy that I not writing what you want to read, feel free to stop visiting.

  6. Addition, if you are convinced some stocks are worse off because of your political views, then go short. Easy. No need to keep yelling and shouting fire when you are not even rushing out the door yourself.

    • So now you trying to advise me how to advise. Yr assumption that must play their stocks, either long or short. Ever tot there is life outside the PAP universe?

  7. Geez.. Get a job mate.

    • Your assumption is that I do what I do ’cause I frustco. Ever tot there are some of us who don’t need to work, and who don’t believe in happiness thru work.We like sitting under the mango trees.

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