Not yet according to JPMorgan
Archive for the ‘Emerging markets’ Category
“What Myanmar needs now are more 7-11s, not more Walmarts,” said Lex Rieffel, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. He was quoted by FT.
She can now scout out Burma, next door.
Finally for this week, Myanmar launched its first debit cards on Friday, giving customers the chance to use plastic for shopping, dining and travel for the first time in the latest leap forward for its cash-dominated economy.
(Or “Kishore Mahbubani’s thesis about Asian power proven wrong again”)
It seems likely the long-term recessionary scenario as described by Mr Taylor, Mr Reinhart, and Mr Rogoff is what economies in the West are now experiencing. Within developed markets, the financial sector occupies a larger proportion of the general economy than ever before. In the 1990s and 2000s, the level of private debt on bank balance sheets far outweighed that held by sovereigns, despite a simultaneous increase in sovereign debt levels. Given the greater severity of recession Taylor concludes is likely following a period of both private and public debt accumulation, the damaging effects could go on for some time.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2012/09/financial-crisis Warning: very chim
Let’s see if the BRICs and other Asian economies can save S’pore from a recession or slow down like what a certain PAP apologist is implying about the days of ang moh and Jap tua kee are over: now China, India and Asian (ex Japan) tua kee. He got his balls blown-off over Standard Chartered!
For the last two years, Mr. Grant, a managing director based in Florida at a regional investment bank, has been predicting the bankruptcy of Greece and a cascade of chaos across the global economy, attracting quite a following on Wall Street in the process.
“Greece will be forced to return to the drachma and devalue, and the default will cause bank runs and money flowing into Germany and the United States as the only viable safe haven bets,” he declared the day before Sunday’s Greek elections, irrespective of which party would win. “Greece will default because there is no other choice regardless of anyone’s politics.” http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/06/18/one-wall-street-seer-says-the-greek-tragedy-is-near/?src=dlbksb.
This recession will hurt emerging markets (Mark Mobius is bullish on them especially Vietnam, a great favourite). And our nation-building constructive media are full of doom and gloom for S’pore if the Eurozone breaks up. Err whatever happened to the scolding that a PAP apologist, Kishore Mahbubani, gave the Lady for visiting Europe implying that she should have visited Asian countries first (he forget she visited Thailand). Well Asia may be rising but Europe is still very, very important. Anyway, he should realise that there is such a thing as gratitude, despite this, “Gratitude is a disease of dogs that is not transmittable to humans”. It was said by a French investment banker after he was ousted from chairmanship of Italian insurer with which he was associated for over 40 years.
Without European support of her cause, she would most likely be dead now. Asian countries didn’t care about her or her cause.
Emerging market guru and value investor Mark Mobius thinks Europe will emerge from its debt crisis intact and stronger than ever.
He believes emerging markets offer the best opportunities for investors. “The average growth this year will be five percent, compared to less than one percent in developed countries. They represent 34 percent of the world’s market capitalization and most people have very little, if anything, in emerging markets”.
His favorite developing economies are Vietnam and Nigeria
And a bull on US retailers.
And he has outperformed his peers!
(Or “The Achars are coming”)
First, there is IHH expected to list in July. Intetegrated Healthcare Holdings is the healthcare arm of Malaysia’s state investor. Its assets include Turkish hospital group, Singapore’s Parkway Holdings, India’s Apollo Hospitals Enterprise and Malaysia’s Pantai Hospitals and International Medical University. It presses all the right buttons: Turkey, India, M’sia and S’pore.
The listing of IHH in Singapore and Malaysia is expected to be the fourth-biggest initial public offering in S’pore’s history and Malaysia’s second-largest this year after the planned listing of Malaysian plantation group Felda Global Venture Holdings.
International Financial Corp, part of the World Bank Group, is planning to take part in the planned US$1.5 billion listing of IHH. Another cornerstone investor is the Pru’s Asian funds arm. UK’s Pru or the US Pru. I’m sure GIC or Temasek will be another cornerstone investor.
For those interested in Indian healthcare and yield there will be Religare Health Trust. India’s Fortis Healthcare, which is seeking to expand its clinical operations and cut debt, plans to raise about 20bn rupees (S$459m) by listing its hospital business in Singapore. Its listing is expected to be later than that of IHH.
“We are looking at this listing to de-leverage the balance sheet,” its CEO said anning the IPO last week. Fortis, which has about 15 hospitals and clinics that are part of this business, has a consolidated net debt of 50bn rupees, the CEO said. The company is looking to add about 2,500 hospital beds in three to four years, he added. Fortis, India’s No 2 hospitals chain after Apollo Hospitals Enterprise, said consolidated net profit jumped 41.34% to 415.4bn in its fiscal fourth quarter ended March.
Religare Health Trust has a mandate to invest in medical and healthcare assets and services in Asia, Australasia and emerging markets.
The IPO would be the second by an Indian company in Singapore after Indiabulls Properties Investment Trust raised US$165m (S$210.8m) in 2009. This has been a dog of a stock.
Reliance Communications is also planning to raise US$1 billion through a Singapore listing of its undersea cable business.
(Or “Why CIMB is buying a bank in the Philippines”)
Brokers have upgraded their full-year economic growth forecast for the Philippines after the government announced a surprising 6.4% growth in the first quarter (better than other countries in the region)
Example– Nomura now expects the economy to expand by 5.1% this year from an earlier 4.6%.
“[First quarter] GDP soared to 6.4%… beating expectations. This was led by high public sector spending and still-robust private consumption … We upgrade our 2012 GDP growth forecast to 5.1% from 4.6% as we believe these drivers will not only persist, but will also be augmented by faster increases in private investment owing to on-going reforms.”
Nomura noted that the country is also expected to improve its position in an annual competitiveness ranking, “The Philippines has fallen two spots to 43rd due to a weak ranking in the economic performance criterion, which we think is related to last year’s under spending by the government.”
As the Economist wrote a few weeks ago: Future prospects are indeed enticing: besides the unexploited mineral resources, business-process outsourcing is booming, already employing some 600,000 people. Remittances from all those Filipinos overseas have remained strong through economic crises. As costs rise in China, the Philippines is among places manufacturers eye as an alternative. Tourism has huge potential, recognised by the government’s nicely pitched campaign: “It’s more fun in the Philippines.”
The government has also started making some important reforms. In an effort to raise its revenues—at present a paltry 12% of GDP—it wants to jack up “sin” taxes on alcohol and tobacco. The bill enacting this made important progress in May when it passed a House of Representatives committee—a triumph over powerful tobacco and alcohol lobbies. It still has to pass the full House and the Senate, however.
But it remains sceptical: In fact, the Aquino administration has little concrete to show for its two years in power. The centrepiece of its programme, public-private partnerships to tackle the inadequate infrastructure which is such a hindrance to all the nation’s economic hopes, is only now stuttering to life after just one of the ten projects scheduled for approval last year saw contracts awarded. The pursuit of Mrs Arroyo and the chief justice is a distraction as well as a mission. Securing Mr Corona’s conviction might entail so many promises to senators that the point of the exercise—enhancing the government’s clean image—is lost.
Well CIMB for one is bullish. In early May, CIMB agreed to buy just under 6o% of the Philippines’ Bank of Commerce (BOC) for 12.2 billion pesos (M$881 million) in cash, a move analysts said gives it early mover advantage in a market with high-growth banking potential.
It got in into Indonesia on the cheap in 2002 before the ang mohs rediscovered Indonesia yet again. It bot into the government’s recapitalisation of a major local bank (Bank Niaga) that was nationalised after the 1997/1998 financial crisis.
The PBOC could be an encore.
Thailand’s recovering from late last yr’s floods. GDP up 11% Q on Q. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18141171.
But inflation is a problem that the govmin is trying hard to solve, not make sick jokes* like our finance and trade ministers (also governor and deputy governor of central bank). But then if Thais get angry, they riot, not juz bitch anonymous online abt it.
(BTW, the int’l manufacturing hub hard disk drive industry is now in Thailand http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-17299249. It was once here.)
Money will pour into Burma but the country is ill-prepared to cope with the resulting floods http://blogs.reuters.com/breakingviews/2012/05/18/myanmar-must-brace-for-post-sanctions-cash-deluge/
*Because more than half of the headline inflation rate of 5.2% came from higher COEs for cars and the effect of higher market rent on houses, most S’poreans would not be affected by inflation. The vast majority of Singaporeans who already own their homes and are not buying new cars would not feel the effects of these sharp increases. And the increase in prices of daily necessities and essential services such as food and clothing have actually been much more moderate at 3% or lower.
(Or “Why the Philippines is the country to watch”)
Last year, with more than 600,000 call centre workers, the Philippines officially overtook India as the world’s call centre capital.
If you phone up to book a flight, buy a theatre ticket or complain that water is cascading out of your washing machine, you’re now more likely to speak to a Filipino than an Indian.
The Philippines has a number of obvious advantages when it comes to call centres. Wages are low and most Filipinos speak English in an accent which, given the American colonial influence here, is easy for US customers to understand.
Filipinos also pride themselves on being approachable and friendly – a trait which is essential for speaking to strangers on the phone every day.
But its also high tech software that plays a big part.
But the Filipinos are ambitious. Going for Business Process Outsourcing
The Philippines may have more call centre agents, but India still has more BPO employees – and every year a great proportion of them work in the more lucrative and more skilled non-voice-based services.
Looking at the returns, it’s easy to see why the Philippines wants to follow India down this route. In 2010, India’s overall BPO revenue was $70bn, compared to just $9bn in the Philippines.
A move away from voice-based services will need more staff, more training and more hardware.
But Jojo Uligan, head of the Contact Center Association of the Philippines, is bullish about the future.
His projections show the Philippines more than doubling its BPO employees by 2016 – from about 600,000 to 1.3 million people. Take this projection with a latge pinch of salt, Filipinos love to talk big. But the trend is right.
Last Saturday, I blogged that it’s day in the sun may finally be coming.
Hopefully, for the poor, that day will become soon. These pixs brought back memories (I was a stockbroker in Manila in1996-1997, living off the fat of the land) of how poor the poor are in the Philippines, and how the rich and poor live literally beside one another.
If the government wants to make sure of the PAP retaining power, one gd way would be to organise school trips to the slums of Manila, and then lecture the impressionable minds abt the perils of too much democracy. Yes, of course taz a dumb way of summarising the reasons for the poverty there, but the young wouldn’t know.
With even my dogs knowing abt the Indonesian story, while investors are getting excited about Cambodia and Burma, rightly, and rediscovering Vietnam (later abt it in the week), the Philippines has been quietly (a surprise as Filipinos tend to be excitable, boastful and noisy) getting things right.
But some investors are aware and reaping the benefits. Last yr, the Philippines stk market was the 7th best performer (and I think tops, 2.% rise, in Asia: yup was a bad yr overall for Asian and global mkts), and so far this yr it is among the top 10 globally, up more than 20%.
The Philippines, after years of indebtedness, is a net creditor.
the country is getting its fiscal house in order. … The deficit has narrowed from a worrying 5-6 per cent a decade ago to a manageable 2 per cent …
the political situation is vastly improved. (The FT (recently) via Today.
Remember that Brazil is finally becoming the powerhouse it always had the potential to be after almost 100 yrs of disappointing investors regularly. But then Argentina has gone the other way. Bulls can only hope that Filipinos are more like Brazilians, even though they like the Argies have Spanish blood, rather than Portugese blood)
BTW, Temasek is Filipino-lite. When it was unfashionable to own shares in the Indonesia, it had major stakes in Danamon (now being sold to DBS) and BII (sold at very high valuation to
sucker MayBank) and in Indosat (sold at nice profit). It doesn’t own anything direct in the Philippines: no banks, no telcos.
Local banks presence is pretty light in the Philippines when compared to Indonesia. DBS has a 21.4% stake in BPI via its 40% stake in Ayala DBS where Ayala has the majority 60% stake. UOB seems to have a 2% stake in BDO Unibank which has juz called a massive US$1bn rights issue. OCBC doesn’t seem to have a presence in the Philippines. All three local banks have subsidiaries in Indonesia.
Singtel has major investments in the Philippines (via Globe 47% which it controls together with Ayala 32%) and in Indonesia. Global is the second largest telco in the Philippines.
Japan has agreed to write off more than US$3.7bn of debt owed by Burma and to resume development aid. The leaders of both countries also agreed to plan a special economic zone near Rangoon. This could give Japanese firms a head start in winning business in what is seen as one of Asia’s last frontier markets.
Hey could have been S’pore planing a SEZ with Burma! We are “old friends” of Burma. And GLCs and TLCs got experience of building biz parks in Vietnam and China. Come on Georgie Boy. Go broke deals between S’porean cos and Burmese ones and the government. Too comfortable, what with big fat pension? Or planning to reform PAP? Or planning to be president?
(Ya aware that three postings in row abt Northern ASEAN countries. But taz where the biz and investment opportunities are coming from in this region.)
State-owned Phnom Penh Water Supply Authority (PPWSA) started trading on April 18, while Telecom Cambodia and Sihanoukville Autonomous Port are preparing to go public.
“Cambodia is going to be a very attractive market as investors benefit from the nation’s economic development. Many inquiries are being placed for possible listings … dozens of companies will list their shares within five years. Listings of five-to-10 companies are possible a year.”
BBC report http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17738351
Burma is to get a new stock exchange, after the Tokyo Stock Exchange and Daiwa Securities received preliminary approval to help set one up.
Meanwhile, Cambodian brokers and wannabe investors, and foreign investors are preparing for the country’s first ever IPO.
While Myanmar’s natural resources of oil, gas and minerals are positive factors, there are “areas of concern”, Templeton portfolio manager Dennis Lim wrote in a note last week on chairman Mark Mobius’s blog.
Although Cambodia is “ideally located” to benefit from trade with Thailand, Vietnam and Laos, investors need to study corporate governance standards, he said.
“Weaknesses we’re especially mindful of in Myanmar are lack of a proper legal structure, the lack of a well developed banking system, and the lack of solid foreign exchange operations. In Cambodia, I would caution potential investors to monitor corporate governance standards to ensure investors are treated fairly.”
In Cambodia, state- owned Phnom Penh Water Supply Authority will have its IPO next month, making it the first to be traded on the stock exchange that opened last July without a single listed company.
The Cambodian government has said it wants to spur economic development by selling off state- owned companies and encouraging private enterprises to expand with new funding.
Mr Mobius, who oversees more than US$50 billion in emerging-market assets as executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, has said he’s watching the Cambodian railroad industry “with particular interest’”
Indonesia, whose natural resources include timber and coal, can benefit from increasing global demand for commodities as emerging markets invest in infrastructure, Mr Lim said. Thailand, which suffered its worst floods in almost 70 years in 2011, will have a sound economic recovery and has “positive’” long-term fundamentals, he said.
“For value investors like us, current valuations in Thailand generally remain attractive, though the potential growth obstacles do bear ongoing scrutiny”. He cited agriculture, tourism and offshore gas as drivers of growth.
Interesting, no mention of Vietnam which is now in the dog house because of high inflation and other problems.
Singapore’s stock exchange is a conduit through which Templeton can access new markets because of listings by some companies from the frontier economies, he notes.
Better read this first. [W]hat has been achieved so far in reforming the country in such a short period of time rests on the trust established between the slight, bespectacled former general and the charismatic daughter of Aung San, the country’s liberation hero.
Banyan goes on to point out that both of them are not in best of health and that the Burmese president has many enemies who want to push the clock back.
Cambodia will start trading on its stock exchange in April. It opened in July 2011 but there were no stocks to trade.
Also, buyers from Singapore completed the largest number of transactions as Indonesia witnessed a record year for M&A activity.The 12-month M&A activity for Indonesia ended 31 Jan, 2012, saw 78 transactions worth a total of US$9 billion being recorded, with Singapore-based companies completing nine transactions worth US$372 million, according to global risk management company Kroll and M&A intelligence service mergermarket.
The nine transactions completed by Singapore-based buyers were in a diverse range of industries, highlighting the investment potential in Indonesia. Two transactions were in the energy sector, the rest of the deals were in transportation, consumer food, real estate, construction, financial services, internet and e-commerce, and in other services.
Japan was the most prominent country in the South-east Asian nation’s M&A activity in terms of value and volume, with US$1.1 billion across six deals. The largest Japanese transaction of the year was Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance’s US$827 million, 50% stake acquisition in life insurance provider PT Asuransi Jiwa Sinarmas (Sinarmas Life Insurance), according to the report.
Deals by Asia-Pacific buyers accounted for 72% \of Indonesia’s M&A deal count while 28% of bidders were from outside Asia, with US bidders completing the most transactions,
Indonesia is expected to see continued strong M&A activity, particularly in the technology, media and telecommunications, financial services, energy and mining & utilities sectors.
But there are problems as highlighted by a corporate governance spat: Indonesian tycoons versus Nat Rothschild.
“Investing in emerging markets is always challenging for investors. Indonesia in particular requires deep local insight into the market and potential target companies, as various reforms continue to raise both opportunities and challenges for potential bidders,” said Kroll.
“Many investors interested in Indonesia tend to seek help from local third-party advisers or partners to assist with administrative functions during a transaction. However these intermediaries may not necessarily have sufficient understanding of global anti-corruption legislation. Overlooking such legislation can lead to costly violations for investors in their home markets … investors also need to be aware of other operational pitfalls that may impact their business such as the state of local infrastructure and the integrity of business partners. These risks often vary according to sector.”
Strikes could also be a problem http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17175833 despite the consumer boom.
Its booming economy also masks its problems with politcal governance and corruption. This is what ISEAS* says about the country in its inaugral ASEAN Monitor dated February 2012
Indonesia is in a period defined simultaneously by stasis and stability. It has yet to move into the next phase of its democratic consolidation, and it is unlikely to do so in 2012.
In fact, several indicators suggest an overall deterioration in earlier democratic achievements. First, the country’s judiciary and police are — and most likely will remain — notoriouslyunpredictable in upholding the rule oflaw. Second, large sections of the bureaucracy are in disarray; they will continue to perform poorly for theforeseeable future. Third, Indonesia’s main political parties have fallen increasingly into internal turmoil over positions of influence and finances.
Those problems and frictions are boundto persist in several important parties in the coming months.
Externally, Indonesia is expected continue playing a fairly minor role despite being the dominant power inSoutheast Asia. This is largely because of the strong emphasis on purely domestic political issues. As the next generalelection and the presidential electionapproach in 2014, all of Indonesia’s political parties will become increasinglypreoccupied with preparations for the polls and the selection of candidates. It must be remembered that an anti-porn bill was introduced in 2008, just before the general election the following year.
The coming months will tell if there is to be a similar populist legislative measure to win conservative votes this time. Overall, it is unlikely that Indonesia’s status as a stable yet static democracy will change substantially during 2012.
Key points: The current consumer boom in Indonesia will continue to mask its problems with corruption. And though Indonesia is less likely to be adversely affected by a global economic slowdownthan other regional countries, will global risk aversion stem the investment inflows it has enjoyed in recent years? Read the rest of this entry »
More than 50% of its profits come from emerging markets juz when emerging markets are losing their attractiveness to global investors.
Given Cit’s record of losing serious money by jumping into markets late (think sub-prime, and lending to finance LBOs, US property (in the 80s) and Latin America (in the 80s too), S,poreans should be concerned., given GIC’s 5%(?) odd stake in Citi,
The Fed notified financial institutions that passed a second round of stress tests that they can begin returning money to their shareholders, The results are confidential but already some US banks are saying they will raise dividends this year. Among them are Citi rivals JPMorgan and Wells Fargo. Citi says that only in 2012, will it consider raising its dividends, It got a lousy rating?
And I now know why the executive director of GIC is looking to increase US exposure. Read the rest of this entry »
The boss of PR, advertising and market research conglomerate, WPP, Martin Sorell has an interesting take on how the world economy can be compared to English footie.
“The world continues to move at very different speeds, both geographically and functionally. By means of explanation, perhaps an English football analogy is helpful.
“First, The Premier League consists of the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and the Next 11 (Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, South Korea, Turkey, Vietnam) or CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey, South Africa), along with new media (personal computer driven, mobile, video content, social networks).
“Second, The Championship, the United States, because of its size, immigrant, entrepreneurial culture and human and natural resources, along with an economically well-run and high value-added manufacturing export-led Germany and free-to-air television; third, League One, Western Europe, primarily the United Kingdom, France, Italy and Spain, along with newspapers and magazines; last, League Two, Japan, which has been stagnant for almost twenty years. Perhaps the United Kingdom, with its Coalition Government’s emphasis on deficit reduction and long-term growth will gain promotion to The Championship?”
They are scared of the political risks as inflation becomes a problem in emerging economies. And anyway, it’s time to take some winnings off the table.
Rioting by investors worked in this case. Mkt up 15%.
Fearing further widespread protests, the government … relaxed rules for the banks and for individual investors so that they could borrow more money against shares.
Police have baton-charged investors in the capital of Bangladesh after the country’s stock market saw its biggest one-day fall in its 55-year history.
Trading on the Dhaka Stock Exchange index was halted after it fell by 660 points, or 9.25%, in less than an hour.
The benchmark index had climbed by 80% in 2010 but has since recorded some sharp falls in the past month.
“Ten years ago, we probably had less than 20 percent exposure to the U.S. Now it’s in excess of 40 percent,” said Cindy Sweeting, a manager of the $16.7 billion fund [Templeton Growth Fund], which can invest in companies located anywhere in the world. “Many U.S. companies are well positioned globally, and valuations are about as attractive as they have been in a decade.”
Four American giants — Microsoft, Oracle, Amgen and Pfizer — were among the fund’s top five holdings as of Nov. 30. The fifth is Accenture, the consulting company that operates widely in the United States ….
A strong oil price and a strengthening US$.
StanChart shares have fallen 6% since last Thursday when it told the market that costs were rising and wholesale banking revenues weak.
For StanChart, growth is proving costly. The British bank with a strong focus on Asian emerging markets said last Thursday that it had another record year to look forward to, predicting further growth in its pre-tax profit for both the consumer and banking wings of its business. However, such growth comes at a high price, and costs for the bank have been growing faster than it would ordinarily allow.
Its finance director said the bank would try to slow cost growth next year until it draws level with income growth once again.
Reminder: Temasek has 19% of StanChart and the bank is one of its best picks ever.
Mkts are flying what with Aug- Oct passing without a mkt collapse and the Fed pumping money into the system. Time to join the party. I’ve sat on the sidelines so far this yr, so I’ll sit on my hands a bit longer. Must admit its hard not to want to do something.
The CEO of HSBC, said late last week, there were likely to be “some bumps in the road ahead” in developing countries, especially in China. Reminder: HSBC generates most of its earnings growth in Asia.
“Our latest data from emerging markets points to a slowdown in the rate of recovery,” he said in a statement. But the bank added that it still expected growth in the region to outpace that of the developed world for the foreseeable future.
He gave a positive outlook for the rest of the year, saying that “the global economy is in better shape than many expected a year ago.” But that “while fears of a double dip in the West may be overplayed, the passage from downturn to upturn is clearly taking longer than previous cycles.”
HSBC said pretax profit in the third quarter was “well ahead” of the period a year earlier, as reserves for bad loans reached its lowest quarterly level since early 2007. Its lending business in the United States accounted for the biggest share of improvements. Business in October was “in line with third-quarter trends,” HSBC said. HSBC does not give detailed earnings figures on a quarterly basis.
The investment banking unit of HSBC also reported a drop in trading. HSBC said performance of the business was “robust although trading activity was lower.”
(Updated on 13 October)
No not Temasek as predator. Remember it has 18% of StanChart.
But what abt JP Morgan? Top FT reporter Francesco Guerrera analyses
The international conundrum is more complex. JPMorgan earns some 75 per cent of its revenues in the US, a slow-growing, developed country. By contrast, Citi derives some 40 per cent of its revenues from Latin America and Asia, emerging economies with a bright future that are also HSBC’s stomping ground.
Those lenders’ competitive advantage is their ability to offer boring-but-lucrative commercial banking and cash management services to thousands of companies.
JPMorgan has a deep commercial banking network in the US – its most profitable business – but lags overseas.
The bank already works with more than 2,000 foreign companies but Mr Dimon would love to get that number to nearer 4,000 and do more with each of them.
To this end, JPMorgan is adding 250 bankers and $50bn in extra lending to lure foreign companies. But that could take decades and the bank might want to shorten the wait with bolt-on acquisitions (as its investment bank did with Britain’s Cazenove and RBS Sempra).
The recent moves by Heidi Miller, a veteran executive, to lead the international effort, and Doug Braunstein, a takeover specialist, to the role of finance chief, certainly point in that direction.
But, as my GPS intones when I get lost, “there is a better way” – in theory at least – and it leads to Standard Chartered.
A well-run, commercial and retail bank with strongholds in Asia, Latin America and Africa, StanChart could be the answer to Mr Dimon’s problems.
It would not come cheap – its valuation is well above JPMorgan’s – and a bid by Mr Dimon would trigger a war with HSBC and China’s ICBC, among others.
But JPMorgan’s good health affords its chief the luxury of time.
On 12 October 2010, StanChart was up 2% on rumours that JP Chase would bid.
Vietnam is a hot market among investors in frontier markets. It has a growing, and hard working and cheap work force, a large domestic market, and is liberalising its economic policies, welcoming foreign investors. Manufacturers are seeing it as a place to supplement or complement their China operations.Deficits are relatively modest, and it has not been in international financial markets long enough yet to rack up any serious i.o.u.’s.
But locals don’t trust the government.
What makes them nervous is the suspicion that the governing Communist Party will do anything to hit its economic growth target before a party congress early next year, even if that means letting inflation get out of control.
They are buying US$ and gold whenever they can.
So many dollars have been scooped up, in fact, that the country’s central bank, the State Bank of Vietnam, is at risk of running out, analysts warn. Any shock, like a double-dip global recession that hurts exports or foreign investment, and Vietnam could find itself without enough dollars to pay for crucial imports like fuel, they say.
“The question mark at this point is whether the dollars will come in,” said Ngiam Ai Ling, director of Asian sovereign ratings at Fitch Ratings in Singapore, which warned in March that it might cut Vietnam’s rating, already below what the agency deems investment grade.
NYT article on this and other problems, as well as what’s gd abt Vietnam.
Representatives of large US corporations, including General Electric, Johnson and Johnson and JPMorgan visited Cambodia to discuss the potential for future investment.
Few mths back, I heard Temasek is sniffing around too.
Note there is no stock market here yet. One was supposed to start last year.
The FT reports that Carrefour is planning to pull out of Thailand, M’sia and S’pore.
The pull-out is in its early stages. Carrefour is talking to bankers but has yet to decide how to proceed and, according to one person familiar with the situation, there have been no serious discussions yet with potential buyers …
Tesco, the UK retailer, is regarded as the most likely trade bidder for the Malaysia and Singapore assets, but Dairy Farm, the Singapore-listed retailer and Aeon, the Japanese retail group, could be interested.
Potential private equity bidders include CVC and Navis Capital, the Malaysia-based group. NTUC Fairprice of Singapore, which runs a supermarket chain, is seen as a potential buyer for the Singapore and Malaysia businesses, if they were to be sold separately.
Tesco is also a top contender for Thailand as is France’s Casino group. These two chains are the biggest in the country. Neither would comment.
Obama did it again. The ”Canceller-in-chief”, has again postponed his trip to Indonesia. If I were an Ondonesian, I’d be upset. Waz so difficult abt vistiing the Gulf, do a tv special, explain that you have already postponed one trip to Indonesia, http://atans1.wordpress.com/2010/03/20/our-neighbour-the-new-brazil/, and that a second postponement is an insult to the the new Brazil?
And Indonesia is impt — Mark Mobius says so.
Indonesia has a “good” outlook due to its resources and large population, putting the nation in a favorable position to attract investment, Templeton Asset Management Ltd.’s Mark Mobius said.
“Overall we have a positive take on investment opportunities there,” Mobius, who oversees about $34 billion in emerging markets as Templeton Asset Management’s Singapore-based executive chairman, wrote in his blog dated yesterday. “Indonesia has a young, growing population and Jakarta, the capital of Indonesia, is expected to be the largest city in the world within two decades.”
I don’t track Thailand so I was surprised to see this chart in the FT. I tot that with the events there, foreigners would be breaking down the walls in an attempt to exit the country.
FT went on to say, Investors do not wish to pull out of one of the most open and investor-friendly of east Asia’s fast-growing economies, where the government has, within the past month, raised its 2010 GDP increase forecast from a range of 3.3-5.3 per cent to 4.3-5.8 per cent.
In a note published on Beyond Brics, the Financial Times’s emerging markets hub, Standard Chartered Bank said the baht had been “remarkably stable during the political turmoil”, because the market had largely accounted for the unrest, and economic fundamentals were “relatively solid” in view of Thailand’s big foreign exchange reserves, substantial current account surplus and economic growth.
Could we see a delayed reaction? Or are those still in there the value investors. Time to check out the place?
Where is the dividing line between frontier and emerging markets? “It’s not very clear,” said emerging markets specialist Mark Mobius of Templeton. “Generally speaking, frontier markets are those that are relatively small and illiquid and have been pretty much ignored up to now.
‘Cambodia or Sri Lanka would be examples, along with Vietnam and Pakistan. But then you have other markets, like those in the Middle East which have not traditionally been part of emerging markets, such as Kuwait, Abu Dhabi and Dubai.”
By his definition, we have three around us: Cambodia, Sri Lanka and Vietnam.
Interested in Cambodia and Laos?
Frontier Investment and Development Partners says that investment in China’s neighbours has become an option for those interested in China itself, reports the FT. FIDP claims to be a private equity investor.
FIDP, which has offices in Singapore, Cambodia and Mongolia, has launched its Cambodia and Laos fund, and is due to start investing its first $50m (£32m, €37m) by July. The fund is “an extended China play”, designed to profit from exports to China as well as the shift of investor interest from west to east. It will focus largely on agriculture and infrastructure, seeking to benefit from China’s continued demand for raw materials and its desire for food security and the need to improve transportation links for trade
Both Cambodia and Laos boast swathes of undeveloped land and untapped reserves of resources. The discovery of oil reserves off the south-west coast of Cambodia has yet to be quantified and the potential for Laos to become a major source of hydropower using the Mekong river has also not yet been utilised. But … these countries are primed for rapid growth.
And as roads are built and an unbroken rail network is created across the region, the proximity to China of countries such as Cambodia and Laos will provide them with an additional advantage over commodity exporters further afield.
China has provided large sums towards developing infrastructure and transportation links in both countries. In March, a Chinese delegation to Cambodia pledged to expand commercial ties between the two countries, including an agreement between telecommunication companies Chinese Huawei Technologies and Cambodia’s CamGSM.
Standard Chartered expects Indian profits to exceed HK for the first time next year, Richard Meddings, finance director, told the Financial Times. Hard to believe as HK is its core market.
But then StanChart executives, including Peter Sands, the group’s CEO, were in Mumbai to announce that the bank had obtained regulatory approval to become the first foreign company to list on an Indian stock exchange.
So a little cynicism is in order?
Seriously, Temasek with 19% of StanChart, must be commended for investing in a bank that now has as its two major markets, HK/China and India. Makes up for that FT dominated mongrel, DBS. Time to strip DBS to a local retail bank, and rename it POSB? Who needs one Asian champ and one Asian chump?
When you think about it, Temask’s banking strategy (Asian prong: stakes in two major Chinese banks, StanChart, and in Asian banks in Indonesia, M’sia, Pakistan etc) worked. Where it went wrong badly was in its Western investment banking strategy buying into Merrill Lynch and Barclays and cutting its losses when the hedgies were buying.)
Moral of story, something Dr Goh could have warned them against: “Ang Moh tua kee” strategy does not work.
Temasek owns 19% of Standard Chartered. Standard Chartered has said that it made record profits and income in the first three months of 2010.The London-based bank, which operates mainly in Asia, said that it “remains in excellent shape”.
It did not release profit figures for the quarter, but the remarks in its trading update point to a strong 2010. “Overall, the group has had a very strong start to the year, despite margin headwinds and increasing competitive pressures”.
In the first half of 2009, Standard’s profits were a record US$2.84bn (£1.86bn), suggesting profits for the first quarter of that year of about $1.4bn.
The comment that it had “a record quarter in terms of both profit and income” for 2010 indicate it could beat these figures when it reports half-year results later in the year.
Wholesale banking, which includes advisory, trade finance and other investment banking business, saw client income rise by more than 20% on the first quarter of 2009 and contributed more than 80% of wholesale income, the bank said in its statement.
Wholesale banking has driven Standard Chartered’s growth in recent years and accounted for over 80% of group profit last year.
Another emerging market bear. GMO’s founder Jeremy Grantham has a good track record*. He called the recent crisis correctly in a timely manner. FT reports:
His candidates for potential bubbles are emerging markets and commodities. The former is a no-brainer: “it’s correct; they will have better GDP [growth]”. He does not think valuations will go as high as in Japan or on internet stocks, but a 50 per cent premium is possible. “Let’s say the market at 15 [price/earnings ratio] and these guys at 22.5.”
Should investors try to grab a piece of that, or steer clear? Mr Grantham would personally like to join in, “as an individual”. But he is not certain it is a good policy. The question is, “if you want to buy bargains, when do you knowingly overpay a bit, because you see a queue of people outside ready to buy?
“We haven’t settled that internally. We like the idea of exclusively playing the long-term winning bets. Why mess around with the secondary considerations?”
The question is even harder to answer with regard to commodities. The story here is “we’re running out of everything” but it is a long-run story beyond the time horizon of most clients. Investors can probably make money, “but the tricky problem is overpaying upfront. The price has shifted.Those with a genuine 10-20-year horizon “should own people who own the resources”, because there is no money in processing, only in ownership.
His GMO forecasts rank asset classes in order of expected real return, and Mr Grantham is particularly pleased with the 10-year forecast ending December 2009.
This had US Reits (real estate investment trusts) at the top of the list followed by emerging market equities, and the S&P 500 at the bottom in 11th place. In the event, emerging market equities did best, returning 8.1 per cent a year after inflation (the forecast was 7.8 per cent), Reits were third with 7.4 per cent (10.0 per cent), and the S&P was last with -3.5 per cent (-1.9 per cent). The ranking of the assets in between was almost spot on. The probability of getting that right by chance was 1 in 550,000, says Mr Grantham.
Thinking of starting to invest seriously in emerging markets? Standard Chartered warns of bubble in emerging markets. Extract from Guardian article:
Gerard Lyons, chief economist at Standard Chartered, said Asia was the main recipient of western capital, but there was also evidence of speculative activity in Latin America, Eastern Europe and Africa.
A combination of a prolonged period of low interest rates in the west and strong growth in emerging markets meant the money would continue to flow in. “The size of the flows could become more significant,” he added. “There is a significant risk, even though it is a consequence of economic success.”
The report noted that many countries did not have the capacity to absorb the capital inflows, with the result that the money boosted share and property prices, adding to inflationary pressures.
“The longer it takes to address this, the bigger the problem will be. Just as excess liquidity contributed to problems in the western developed economies ahead of the financial crisis, excess liquidity has the potential to cause fresh economic and financial problems across the emerging world.”
Massive flows of capital from emerging economies, especially those in Asia, helped to inflate the asset bubbles in the west that led to the financial crash of 2007. Standard Chartered said global liquidity flows had now reversed, with emerging economies now on the receiving end. Recipients included countries with current account surpluses such as China, and those running current account deficits such as Vietnam and India.
Lyons said China was the emerging economy investors were looking at for signs of trouble. “China is not a bubble economy but it is an economy with bubbles.” But he added that the problem was not confined to Asia, and that hedge funds were now looking at “frontier markets” in Africa.
While emerging markets needed foreign direct investment to help them grow, Standard Chartered said the influx of hot money was a big worry. “Although hot money is regarded as temporary, it persists until the incentive to speculate is eliminated.”
Oh and there is the Greek crisis. 2008, here we come again?