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Archive for the ‘Financial competency’ Category

When QEIII slows

In Financial competency on 18/06/2013 at 5:45 am

“Defensive” stocks (those that do not move with the business cycle, like food) are the most vulnerable.

When investors began to expect there would be a reduction in the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing bond-buying programme towards the end of this year, from monthly purchases of $85bn a month to perhaps $65bn. the perception that the rate of money creation might fall by around a quarter has seen bond yields rise by more than a third and the US 10-year yield is now firmly lodged above 2% (circa 2.2% the last time I looked).

By historical standards 2% is still very low. But the yield shift from circa 1.5% to circa 2.2% is dramatic.

The best analogy is with an earthquake deep under the sea, which causes powerful waves in all the world’s oceans or, in this case, in all the world’s markets.

(BBC analyst)

ST’s bearish on reits! Time to buy?

In Financial competency, Property, Reits on 10/06/2013 at 5:08 am

Fee-fi-fo-fum; I smell the blood of reporters and analysts that were bullish on reits. Be they alive or be they dead, I’ll grind their bones to make my bread.

ST has finally given up promoting reits (something I’ve been bitching about recently here and here), reporting: MAYBANK Kim Eng Research has gone against the long-prevailing view and downgraded Singapore’s red-hot real estate investment trust (Reit) sector amid a period of increasing price volatility.

Reits have come under heavy selling pressure the past fortnight amid fears the golden days of low interest rates may be ending.

The FTSE ST Reit Index, which tracks the sector, dropped 1.68 per cent yesterday and is down 8.2 per cent since May 22, when the United States Federal Reserve’s chairman raised the possibility of ending its money-printing.

http://www.cpf.gov.sg/imsavvy/infohub_article.asp?readid={309678777-17695-45587420}

Gee, less than a month and two bullish stories, ST is now reporting bearish news on reits. Even when I waz an equities salesman, I didn’t change my views so fast. ST Money Desk practicing to be salespersons.

But before rushing into reits, think. The prices of reits were helped by institutional equity investors* buying them for the yield. Now those who chased yields in the equity markets may switch into cyclicals and defensives, if they think the yield party is over. If so buying into reits may face a stampede out of reits, and then relative underperformance.

*Remember, bond investors don’t buy reits. They stick to bonds, moving to junkier bonds for yield. When cautious, they sell the junk and buy US govt bonds.

Quadruple confirm: Public servants don’t do cost-benefit analysis

In Financial competency, Humour, Public Administration on 04/06/2013 at 5:12 am

Former NUS law professor, Tey Tsun Hang, was sentenced to a 5 months’ jail term and ordered to pay a penalty of $514.80 by the court yesterday. He was convicted of corruptly obtaining gifts and sex from former student Darinne Ko.

Last week, the former chief of the Singapore Civil Defence Force (SCDF), Peter Lim Sin Pang, was convicted by a District Court for corruption. He was on trial for abusing his position to obtain sexual favours from Ms Pang Chor Mui in return for favorable consideration of her company’s tender bid for business.

Also last week, the Ministry of Home Affairs said disciplinary proceedings against the former chief of the Central Narcotics Bureau Ng Boon Gay would remain suspended until a final outcome in the criminal proceedings. Mr Ng was acquitted of corruption charges in February. Mr Ng was accused of obtaining sexual favours from IT sales manager Ms Cecilia Sue in return for furthering the business interests of her two employers. The MHA spokesperson also said that the prosecution was studying  the written grounds of decision and assessing whether to file a Petition of Appeal.

Even though Gay was acquired, all three public servants paid a high price for being a bit (very cheap actually) cheap when it came to sex. In return for a few freebie trysts, they ended up spending very serious money on lawyers , and damaging their reputations and earning capabilities. I mean who will want to employ two soiled police scholars and an academic who proclaimed his academic integrity* when he was charged?

Then there was ex-Speaker of Parliament, “Mangoes for Laura” Palmer. True he wasn’t charged and never paid lawyers’ fees, but the guy was castrated in public: within a few hours he fell from “tua kee” to zero you-know-what.

Obviously, they didn’t do cost-benefit analysis. If they had been, they could have realised that the costs of being cheap on sex was higher than if they had paid for it. They would have realised that paying for sex was less risky for their careers and reputations. Based on legal fees of $500,000 a case (and I’m being conservative given the size of the legal teams), even if each man charged had sex 100 times (and the reports indicate that the frequency wasn’t that high), the cost would be $5,000 a session. And these were with aunties! Not slim, tall Vogue model-types.

If these senior public servants, didn’t use cost-benefit analysis on such an impt, personal matter, what are the chances that public servants use cost-benefit analysis when analysising or making decisions for us the masses? Yup, highly unlikely.

Anyway, these four cases illustrate the ancient Chinese saying of, “Kill a cock to frighten the monkeys”. Here four cocks were “killed’ to remind public servants that free sex is not a benefit of service. Never mind, public servants can afford to pay for sex, juz like they can afford to buy $5m to S10m apartments from a TLC, even when the TLC expresses concerns that it can sell some of these apartments. And if the MDA chairman and CEO may have problems with their personal cost-benefit analysis (what with QE possibly being reversed, with knock-on effects for S’pore property, and KepLand’s remarks on selling its apts), can ministers and the public trust that the MDA has done its cost-benefit analysis on its new media regulations? It could be telling that the Manpower minister replaced MDA’s CEO at a Talking Points programme on the issue of new media regulation? BTW, where was the water engineer**, Yaacob?

Note (Last three lines added two hrs after first publication, after reading FT etc)

——

*I tot he was going to deny that he ever had sex with his student. It has been part of Western academic tradition since the times of the Greeks that sex with students was taboo. There was a lewd Roman joke that Socrates never had sex with Plato despite both being gay because Plato was Socrates’ pupil. The Romans didn’t do gay sex.

**See the * at end in link on what I mean by “water engineer”.

Time for ST to stop promoting Reits

In Financial competency, Property, Reits on 03/06/2013 at 5:53 pm

Opps ST nearly did it again. On Saturday, an ST headline screamed: “Buying opportunity after Reits rout”. http://www.cpf.gov.sg/imsavvy/infohub_article.asp?readid={498059457-17610-6138972043}. Market overall was off 24.6 points (0.74%), while the reits’ index was off a marginal 1.1 point.

Could have been worse. The last time ST promoted reits, ““It was no different in Singapore, where the benchmark Straits Times Index sank 61.2 points or 1.8 per cent to 3,393.17, its worst one-day plunge in percentage terms since its 2.2 per cent reverse on May 7 last year” (“Markets tumble amid US, China fears”: ST headline. Didn’t have the balls to tell us, reits here were off about 5%”http://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/05/28/bad-timing-st-article-on-reits/

On a more serious note, ST shld not be promoting reits. True the yields are better than most plays, but reits are leveraged plays. Now is not the time to be bullish on reits.: http://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/05/21/s-reits-why-stay-away/

I’m still long but I got in in 2008 and 2010. I’ve been riding the run and collecting the payouts to pay for my expenses.

 

Bad timing! ST article on Reits/ Will mkts continue rising?

In Financial competency, Humour, Property, Reits on 28/05/2013 at 5:29 am

On 22 May ST screamed “Reits look like good bets to yield-hungry investors”

The opening para read “SINGAPORE real estate investment trusts (Reits) are among the hottest assets in town to own”.

http://www.cpf.gov.sg/imsavvy/infohub_article.asp?readid={332593593-17481-7717667817}

On 23 May, Japan’s stock market fell by about 7%. “It was no different in Singapore, where the benchmark Straits Times Index sank 61.2 points or 1.8 per cent to 3,393.17, its worst one-day plunge in percentage terms since its 2.2 per cent reverse on May 7 last year” (“Markets tumble amid US, China fears”: ST headline. Didn’t have the balls to tell us, reits here were off about 5%*. They have since recovered slightly.

Fee-fi-fo-fum; I smell the blood of reporters and analysts. Be they alive or be they dead, I’ll grind their bones to make my bread.

For what’s it’s worth, I repeat my take first expressed here http://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/05/21/s-reits-why-stay-away/. But I’m not selling, yet, juz collecting the distributions, and watching to sell.

Update after first publishing: Juz read in FT that while the Topix index is down 10%, reits there down 1%. Seems investors want to own real assets, given that Japan wants to raise inflation.

Update, Update: However, there are three good reasons why stock markets, a few blips aside, will continue to grow for some time: central banks are scared; there is lots of money waiting to be invested; and returns on all other assets are low … Strapped to these three rockets, the market can still soar. Of course, Spain could yet go bust or China grind to a halt. There could be a natural disaster, an act of terrorism or war. History tells us a bust is waiting down the track, but while the world economy recovers and governments and central banks maintain their pledge to keep printing money, we should expect prices to rise.
Phillip Inman from Guardian

 

Stk mkts were hitting new highs, so what?

In Financial competency on 27/05/2013 at 6:14 am

Markets are off their recent highs.

There are gd reasons to be concerned abt the ability of equity markets to continue going up. But their hitting new highs should not be one of them. This explains why.http://fatasmihov.blogspot.sg/2013/05/lets-get-real-about-stock-market.html

Gd summaries of waz driving mkts and the risks http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22620262 andhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21696467

Time to get real on retail Reits, and S-Reits generally?

In Financial competency, Property, Reits on 16/05/2013 at 3:35 pm

Ong Kian Lin, an analyst with Maybank Kim Eng, wrote in a note dated March 22 that the recent S-Reit rally was not due to strong fundamentals but fuelled by inflated asset values from quantitative easing by the US Federal Reserve and ample liquidity.

He noted how retail and office property prices have gone up but rentals have been slow to catch up.

A Colliers International report reflected this divergence. As at the end of the first quarter of 2013, retail property rents in its areas of study have fallen from the previous quarter while capital values went up.

While maintaining a positive outlook for the retail and retail Reit sector, Savills’ Mr Cheong noted signs of trouble in that retail sales figures are trailing growth in areas such as tourist arrivals, population and inflation.

Retail sales fell 2.7 per cent in February. Tourist arrivals last year was 9.1 per cent higher than the year before. The consumer price index rose 3.5 per cent in February from a year ago. Total population growth was 2.5 per cent between 2011 and 2012.

The demand seen in the market right now is due to sentiment still being buoyant, Mr Cheong feels.

“At the moment it’s still rising, but it’s a binary issue. You cannot go and push to the tipping point, you push to the tipping point, everybody will bolt for the door like a fire in a cinema or retail mall. If everyone bolts for the door, everything will be vacated.”

NUS’ Prof Sing said retailers have increasing choices of malls. And the risk is that with greater choice, consumers may drift away from traditionally popular malls, leading to a downward spiral.

“When this happens, tenants will also start to move out. This cycle will continue, because you (as a manager) cannot pull in the crowd, I (as a retailer) cannot afford to pay such a high rent, I have to move out from the mall. So you put in another tenant that is not as good, so fewer people will come.”

Prof Sing and Knight Frank’s Mr Png said they are watching the Jurong East area, with several commercial and retail developments due for completion.

Retailers also have to cope with tighter foreign manpower policies.

“Much as the government would like to talk about productivity you find that retailers, the services business, is still very labour intensive,” Mr Png said.

http://www.cpf.gov.sg/imsavvy/infohub_article.asp?readid={4798875-17374-4688516258}

Err the issue of inability to raise income could also apply across the board to office and industrial reits too, given the economic slow down. Price rises can only depend on yields going down. FTR, I own various Reits.

Life insc buyers deprived of huge savings!

In Financial competency, Financial planning on 15/05/2013 at 5:02 am

The following report from Monday’s ST deserves the widest possible publicity because it shows how buyers of life insurance here have been deprived of the opportunity to buy less expensive life insurance: they could have saved as much as $20,000 when buying a $1m life plan.

FUNDSUPERMART’S move to sell insurance products on its online platform at a 50 per cent rebate off the lifetime commission sparked some unhappiness among industry players who saw it as a price war tactic.

Four days after launching it on April 30, Fundsupermart took down the offer, and has stopped selling insurance products since.

On its insurance webpage, which has been removed, Fund- supermart said it was introducing the distribution of protection products as a value-added service to its customers.

“More importantly, clients who are on the search for transparency on the commissions they pay for purchasing insurance can find this here,” it added.

There were also two examples stating that the 50 per cent commission rebate translates into savings of $2,000 for a $1 million term plan. For the same sum assured, the savings for a whole life plan could be more than $20,000.

The calculations were aggregated across three insurance providers, based on the profile of a 40-year-old, non-smoking male.

The Straits Times understands that Fundsupermart initially intended to continue with this model but later revised it to a one-month promotion, before pulling the plug completely.

A check with Tokio Marine, NTUC Income and Manulife, whose products Fundsupermart was distributing, found that individual financial advisory firms are free to employ different business models.

http://www.cpf.gov.sg/imsavvy/infohub_article.asp?readid={4798875-17383-3900371789}

According to the report, financial advisers (what insurance sales persons call themselves,nowadays, for various reasons) bitched to Fundsupermart: The Association of Financial Advisers (Singapore) said in an e-mail statement that when the advertisement was published on Fundsupermart’s website, the association expressed its members’ concern to Fundsupermart, “noting that the tone and language used in its postings could be detrimental to the reputation and professionalism of other financial advisers”. [Err wondering what reputation and professionalism? What can be lower than the reputation and professionalism of life insc sales persons? Used car dealers? Juz kidding leh.

The industry body, representing nearly half of the financial advisory firms here, added: “We are glad that it has taken our views into consideration and has decided to withdraw the advertisement.

Hopefully some human rights or other kay poh activists will kick up a fuss, though I’m not holding my breath: They focus on things like ISA, capital punishment, FT workers rights and other things fashionable with ang moh social activists, not with the concerns of median S’porean wager earners.

So here’s hoping Tan Kin Lian of Fisca will organise a protest or write to the press to highlight the loss of this scheme; or for Uncle Leong to get Mrs Chiam to ask in parliament that the the competition authorities investigate whether there was undue pressure to remove the offer. Note that the agents’ trade union emphasised that “All financial advisers are free to offer their competitive deals to their customers. We believe that in such an environment, consumers will ultimately benefit in terms of both quality of advice and pricing.” Ya right, so how come no one offers to give such big rebates, and why the bitch to Fundsupermart when it cut its commission rates?

Doesn’t smell right, does it?

Meanwhile, three cheers to ST for highlighting this issue.

Revisited: Shld consumer financial products be regulated like drugs?

In Financial competency on 08/05/2013 at 5:53 am

Recently, shumeone by the name of Steve Wu (Wu Chee Wah of Foxtrot in SAFTI in 1974?) has been ranting about the 1990s DBS/POSB* deal on TRE. This reminded me that in 2008, 2009 (remember minibonds and DBS HN5?) he was one of those calling for Tan Kin Lian and other experts to certify that financial products are safe for consumers. TKL and GMS too called for this, so he was in good, even if not intellectually sound, company. (Sorry  GMS, couldn’t resist that jibe. Buy you a MacCafe coffee when you next in town.)

Pharmaceutical firms must convince the health authorities that their product is safe and valuable before it can be marketed. Likewise consumer financial products must face a process similar to that for new medicines is what they argued.

This in turn reminded me that last yr I read a piece arguing why this analogy is wrong. Drugs can be tested empirically via tests in the laboratory and field studies in the physical world. Financial products CANNOT be tested beforehand because the only laboratory is the market, and how does one conduct field studies in such a situation?

It’s tempting to see the harm financial products can cause and liken it to medication which, if not thoroughly tested, can also serious illness or death … New drugs can be tested in trials and in a lab. There is no equivalent for financial products. The only laboratory is the market. To effectively balance efficiency and safety, a good regulatory system should observe financial products closely in the wild and only then determine which pose a threat.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2012/04/financial-innovation

Actually, the piece gives other reasons, that I think are rather weak.

There are no short cuts to buying any financial product. Actually there are two short cuts: don’t trust what an insurance agent, or bank staffer says is one . And go ask Tan Kin Lian or Uncle Leong. Pay their fees if necessary.

——

*I hope he realises that

– Temask got paid in DBS shares;

– foreign brokers were complaining that non-Temasek were being diluted because the price at which the shares were issued gave Temasek a double dip (cheap shares for over priced asset);

– he innocently misreps the deal by focusing on NTA valuations. POSB’s profitability and deposit base were shrinking because the govt had removed POSB’s unique selling point: interest on. POSB a/c exempt from income tax (all interest from banks got exempted from incometax). Our three local banks are trading around 1.3x trailing book value while the leading M’sian and Indon banks would consider, anything less than 2x book value sissy stuff: they are growing more rapidly in terms of assets, profits etc; and

– DBS didn’t think much of its acquisition. For many yrs after the acquisition, it was running down or at best ignoring the brand. Only when true blue S’porean banker, Peter Seah, became DBS chairman did it start taking advantage of S’poreans’ love of the POSB brand.http://atans1.wordpress.com/2010/06/18/dbs-why-is-it-reviving-posb/

Cramers tips for younger US investors

In Financial competency on 06/05/2013 at 7:17 am

They include pharma; social media, the cloud, mobile, and the web; and gold

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100674767?__source=ft&par=ft

Great Recession and Not-So-Great Recovery: “Cat in the tree” analogy

In Financial competency on 23/04/2013 at 5:19 am

The Nobel Prize winner George Akerlof of the University of California – had a vivid analogy for the state of uncertainty the economics profession now faces.

“It’s as if a cat has climbed this huge tree – the cat of course is this huge crisis. My view is ‘oh my God the cat’s going to fall and I don’t know what to do’.”

Another one of the organisers, David Romer also of the University of California, picked up the analogy: “The cat’s been up the tree for five years. It’s time to get the cat down from the tree and make sure it doesn’t go back up.”

The trouble for the economics profession is, according to the last of the conference hosts and another Nobel Prize winner, Joseph Stiglitz: “There is no good economic theory that explains why the cat is still up the tree”.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22223249

Splitting the CEO and Chairman roles: It’s complicated …

In Corporate governance, Financial competency on 21/04/2013 at 6:20 am

if the firm is having performance problems; it’s not so helpful if everything is running smoothly. Our study showed that CEO-chairman separation tends to reverse a company’s performance: Low-performing firms benefit from a separation event, while high-performing firms suffer.

It also matters how the firm chooses to separate its top jobs. For the company to see this reversal of fortune, it has to go through what we call a “demotion” separation, whereby the CEO remains the same, but a new, independent chairman is appointed to oversee him or her.

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-11-01/splitting-the-ceo-and-chairman-roles-it-s-complicated

Rowe Price: Father of “growth” investing

In Financial competency on 16/04/2013 at 5:34 am

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/financial-theory/09/thomas-rowe-price.asp?utm_source=coattail-buffett&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=WBW-04/11/2013

MSM, less triumphalism when puffing up GIC, Temasek

In Financial competency, GIC, Media, Temasek on 09/04/2013 at 6:16 am

Pls remember what someone who manages more $ than GIC, Temasek says abt performance

Clearly the ability of the investor to adapt to the market’s “four seasons” should be proof enough that there was something more than luck involved? And if those four seasons span a number of bull/ bear cycles or even several decades, then a confirmation or coronation should take place shortly thereafter! First a market maven, then a wizard, and finally a King. Oh, to be a King.

 But let me admit something. There is not a Bond King or a Stock King or an Investor Sovereign alive that can claim title to a throne. All of us, even the old guys like Buffett, Soros, Fuss, yeah – me too, have cut our teeth during perhaps a most advantageous period of time, the most attractive epoch, that an investor could experience. Since the early 1970s when the dollar was released from gold and credit began its incredible, liquefying, total return journey to the present day, an investor that took marginal risk, levered it wisely and was conveniently sheltered from periodic bouts of deleveraging or asset withdrawals could, and in some cases, was rewarded with the crown of “greatness.” Perhaps, however, it was the epoch that made the man as opposed to the man that made the epoch.
PIMCO’s Bill Gross

Spotting mkt turning pts

In Financial competency on 21/03/2013 at 10:26 am
“The idea that a bell rings to signal when investors should get into or out of the stock market is simply not credible. After nearly 50 years in this business, I do not know of anybody who has done it successfully and consistently.” — John Bogle founder of Vanguard which “is the world’s largest mutual fund company, with about $2 trillion invested in the U.S. in more than 170 index, active, and exchange-traded funds.”

Investment banking horror stories

In Financial competency on 05/03/2013 at 4:42 am

In the end, an adviser would say the client, no matter how foolish, is in charge. And that was the problem. The Bakers, who had built a $600 million business from scratch, appear to think that their advisers should have saved them from themselves and that they could negotiate a better deal than Goldman Sachs. That was a mistake.

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/01/29/lessons-for-entrepreneurs-in-rubble-of-a-collapsed-deal/

The charges against … should put Wall Street on notice that the government will try to police markets that require trust among the participants in the absence of transparent price information. The defense of caveat emptor, or let the buyer beware, will not necessarily protect against criminal charges for fraud.

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/01/30/a-warning-to-wall-street-about-misleading-clients/

Update

So why not, for example, put a ceiling on salaries and let clients reward good service, just as they do in restaurants? That could allow banker pay to shrink to a more realistic level.

The U.S. restaurant business even provides a model of sorts. The Fair Labor Standards Act lets an employer pay waiters below minimum wage as long as they earn a certain amount a month in tips. If the combined total remains below the minimum wage, the restaurant has to make up the difference.

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/03/01/tip-bankers-like-waiters/?nl=business&emc=edit_dlbkpm_20130301

Why Muddy Waters’ attack on Olam failed

In Financial competency on 26/02/2013 at 10:41 am

Olam is not listed in US and subject to SEC scrutiny.

“Muddy Waters Secret China Weapon Is on SEC Website”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-19/muddy-waters-secret-china-weapon-is-on-sec-website.html

The success of Muddy waters in destroying Sino-Forest (also not listed in US) made it guilty of hubris?

Xmen and others Temasek-haters: Ang moh not always tua kee if they bet, bitch against Temasek. They may juz be plain wrong, like Muddy Waters and Balding.

PAP must read these

In Financial competency, Humour on 21/02/2013 at 2:33 pm

For one LKY

One must always be wary of spurious correlation! http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2013/02/correlations

For PM, cabinet ministers and their civil service minions

“As nations become wealthier, it is harder for them to sustain high rates of growth. That doesn’t mean that the United States is in decline, or even stagnating. When a nation is as rich as ours, it can realize larger absolute gains than it did in the past and larger gains than other nations even if it has lower growth rates. That’s because a growth rate of, say, 2.5 percent represents a larger increase in absolute wealth the richer an economy becomes. In 1900, a 2.5 percent increase in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita would have translated into about $150 in today’s dollars for every man, woman, and child in the United States. In 2010, it would have been roughly $1,200, reflecting the fact that in the aggregate, we are about eight times wealthier than we were 110 years ago.3 By focusing too much on growth rates and too little on absolute increases in wealth, we have failed to appreciate the magnitude of economic gains in recent decades.”

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2013/02/growth

No such thing as a “safe” investment

In Financial competency on 21/02/2013 at 6:10 am

Savers looking for ways to earn the kind of income once reliably available from traditional investments, will end up buying “unsafe” products.

Let’s hope the authorities are more vigilant now that the FT that was responsible for products like “minibonds” has moved on. What annoys me is that while MAS found that banks like DBS had failed to appreciate the risks to customers, it only slapped them lightly. In the UK, heavy fines are levied and banks are expected to reimburse customers, even sophisticated ones http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21423831.

.”UBS’s conduct fell far short of what its customers deserved”.

FOR SAVERS, RISKY INVESTMENTS TURN SOUR Americans whose stock portfolios lost money in the financial crisis have turned to speculative investments promoted by aggressive financial advisers – leading to steep losses and accusations of fraud. “Those alternative investments have now had time to go sour in big numbers, state and federal securities regulators say, and are making up a majority of complaints and prosecutions,” The New York Times’s Nathaniel Popper reports. “Last Wednesday, Mr. Galvin’s office ordered one of the nation’s largest brokerage firms, LPL Financial, to pay $2.5 million for improperly selling the real estate bundles, known as nontraded REITs, or real estate investment trusts, to hundreds of state residents from 2006 to 2009, in some cases overloading clients’ accounts with them.”

Brokers promoting bad investments to unsophisticated investors is nothing new. But while the easy prey used to be people looking to get rich quick, the pool has widened to include savers looking for ways to earn the kind of income once reliably available from traditional investments. Regulators are warning investors that the dangers are unlikely to recede, given the Federal Reserve’s pledge to keep interest rates near zero and the push among financial firms to earn more revenue from so-called alternative investments marketed to retail investors.”

When ST headline is bullish, time to sell?

In Financial competency, Property, Reits on 11/02/2013 at 9:33 am

In SunT, the headline screamed,”Market risks ‘seem less threatening this year’”. Oh, dear. If ST reporters and editors are getting less cautious, isn’t this a contrarian sign. Maybe? But to be fair the forecast was made by a UOB Asset Management executive.

So far, as well documented here, I’ve been emphasising buying stocks with sustainable dividends or payouts, decent yields (slightly above our 5% inflation rate), with the possibility of capital appreciation. I’ve been long on smaller cap S-Reits that have tai-kors with money for several yrs. I’m not a buyer at these levels, but neither am I a seller. I’m a nervous holder. Until you cash out, the profits can evaporate. Taz why good, sustainable yields are important. But that means taking on more risk: Reits are not a play safe investment. Their gearing and the requirement to pay out 90% of their earnings, could result in investors coughing up in rights issue more than they got in payouts. Taz the reason for my nervousness.

Stocks on my watch list are SBS and SMRT. But they’ve been on my to buy watch list for three years already.

 

 

 

Why the economists got it wrong in 2007-2008

In Financial competency on 23/01/2013 at 5:27 am

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2013/01/brief-history-macro

MAINSTREAM macroeconomics has a pretty poor reputation these days, both among the public at large and among economists in other fields. This is hardly surprising. There is little consensus on even the most basic questions in macro …

Now, several groups of economists are trying to rebuild macro, often melding previously discarded ideas with sophisticated new mathematical and computational techniques … I want to look more at the history of the field.

Reading SPH, MediaCorp investment “advice”?

In Financial competency, Media on 20/01/2013 at 6:38 am

Watch this then. American-centric but fully of useful insights on the problems of the advice we get http://www.economist.com/blogs/prospero/2013/01/finance-guru-bubble

Sadly, the view here is that teaching financial competency to kids is not a solution to financial illiteracy.

How to get poor

In Financial competency, Financial planning on 15/01/2013 at 5:30 am

Ways to destroy yr net wealth: Don’t overspend for one thing.

Don’t waste time reading 2013 forecasts

In Financial competency on 08/01/2013 at 6:01 am

They got most things wrong in the major markets. As you know, events in these markets affect smaller markets.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-04/almost-all-of-wall-street-got-2012-market-calls-wrong.html

Investment advice for 2013

In Financial competency on 03/01/2013 at 5:05 am

The old adages about investment – run profits, cut losses, keep costs down, reinvest dividends, stay invested – survive for a reason. They have been proven right, year in, year out.

Stay invested, or increase exposure, in equities esp in stocks that consistently payout good dividends.

Think about investing in Jappo equities, and soft commodities’ plays (Olam?). Olam’s debt looks tempting.

Update: Interesting point. Richard Bookstaber once attributed the evolutionary success of the cockroach to coarse decision rules: it ignores most of the information around it and responds only to simple signals. Investors do something similar when confronted with hopeless complexity. They boil it down to a binary question: disaster/no disaster. Then they ignore all the idiosyncratic inputs and ask: what does experience suggest the probability of disaster is?

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2013/01/markets-and-cliff

How S’pore can win Nobel Prizes, and pushy parents’ kids ace exams cheaply

In Financial competency, Humour on 12/12/2012 at 5:17 am

(Or “Uniquely S’porean: Correlation = Hard Truth)

Forget about spending money on R&D or attracting FT researches. Or spending money on tuition.

The govt should juz give S’poreans lots of free chocolates, and parents top up the govt’s supplies to their kids.

I kid you not. Look at this chart: The Swiss who eat lots of chocs are runaway winners when it comes to winning Nobel Prizes. So do the Danes, Austrians, Norwegians and Brits.

Graph showing countries' chocolate consumption per head and Nobel Laureates per 10 million people

“When you correlate the two – the chocolate consumption with the number of Nobel prize laureates per capita – there is an incredibly close relationship,” Franz Messerli of Columbia University says.

“This correlation has a ‘P value’ of 0.0001.” This means there is a less than one-in-10,000 probability of getting results like these if no correlation exists.

Link here and here.

My serious point is that juz because there seems to be a correlation (like 48% of druggies are Malays) doesn’t mean that we should get worked up. This is something that the Malay MP who highlighted the issue and ST who headlined it should appreciate. And so should the ladies who bitched about the ST report, who I criticised. Article

There may be cause and effect somewhere in a correlation, but there may be not. This is a genuine Hard Truth of Science.

Maybe the PAP and the ST should send its MPs and journalists (including the Deputy Editor who tried, but failed, to talk sense on the issue of Malay druggies) to a course in stats and causation. And the PAP should include one LKY in the course.

FTs running SGX wanted this turd

In Corporate governance, Financial competency, Uncategorized on 11/12/2012 at 6:40 am

Earlier this year F1 annced that it would list here. It then pulled back its listing citing market conditions. This could have been true as markets were volatile when it pulled its IPO. But F1 is now shown to be in one big legal mess.

On its face, the investment by CVC Capital Partners in Formula One seems like a winner. But thanks to recent lawsuits, “this enormously rewarding investment may now be in jeopardy,”Steven M. Davidoff writes in the Deal Professor column. A firm that was a competing bidder for Formula One, Bluewaters Communications Holdings, recently sued CVC, the bank BayernLB and Bernie Ecclestone, the Englishman who built the racing business. The claims are over a payment that has already been a source of legal headaches. Bluewaters says the payment was to “steer the sale of Formula One to CVC,” Mr. Davidoff writes, and the firm is “claiming at least $650 million in damages, the lost profit it would have earned had it bought Formula One.”

Well investors and S’pore have been spared this dog with fleas. No thanks to the CEO and COO of SGX, FTs all. And they are advertising in FT, six other posts hoping to get more FTs to keep them company.

And this despite S’pore slipping further down the IPO league tables, with KL at 5th place and HK at 4th. There are no FTs in KLSE.

Buffett talks to NYT

In Financial competency on 09/12/2012 at 7:05 am

Enjoy ))). Love the bit about starving broker: I was one. Broker that is, not starving.

And he thinks short-selling is hard. He gave it up many yrs ago. I’m sure Olam would like to prove him right.

Two simple diversification strategies

In Financial competency on 02/12/2012 at 5:25 am

a native diversification strategy for those who do not know what the future holds (which means all of us). A 50% bonds/50% equities split would have worked well over the last 20 years, but would have been disastrous in the stagflationary 1970s. So he suggests a four way split – 25% equities, 25% government bonds, 25% cash and 25% gold.

The annual return from this strategy would have been highly respectable – 5% real since 1971, compared with 5.5% in equities and 4% in government bonds. But the volatility is much lower – the maximum drawdown was 20% in the early equities, compared with 50% (twice) for equities and 40% for government bonds. Investors would have found it easier to sleep at night.

And

similar naive strategy, involving just equities, bonds and cash; one took the expected return from the three asset classes and dividend the portfolio accordingly. The expected return on bonds and cash is the current yield; the expected return on equities was the dividend yield plus nominal GDP growth. So if cash yielded 4%, bonds 5%, equities 3% (with nominal GDP growing at 4%), expected returns were 4/5/7. The three returns added up to 16, so one put 4/16 in cash, 5/16 in bonds and 7/16 in equities. The beauty of this system is that it made you rebalance when asset classes looked expensive; at the time (back in 2005), it also had a record of low volatility.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2012/11/asset-allocation

The Link between Chinese Philosophy and Financial Gains

In Financial competency on 13/11/2012 at 5:24 am

Zen, I-Ching and Taoism, and investing.

Signs of being an opium smoker investor.

God’s a Jew, and polls aggregators face same bitch as fund indexers

In Financial competency, Humour on 12/11/2012 at 10:29 am

Because he’s not a Christian, Catholic or Mormon. And Muslims don’t matter in US elections. In fact Pakis voted for Romney.

Aggregators got it right. And the bitching sounds familiar. Could be an “active” fund mgr speaking: “If we don’t do the polling these aggregators have nothing to put into their model, [but] they sit back and take the benefit of our hard work and our toil.

Already the number of state polls conducted this year was lower than last time. If everybody decides they’re just going to aggregate in the 2016 presidential election they’ll have no polls left to aggregate.”

Finally: “So I think as an industry we really have a little issue here about the virtues of doing original polling versus just sitting back and taking other peoples’ polls and putting them in models.”

Horrible possibility: if the geeks are right about Ohio, might they also be right about climate?

 Daily Beast writer David Frum (@DavidFrum) examines the consequences of the 2012 election. Namely, if the statistical analysis so accurately predicted the winner of a tough swing state, might statistical analysis be correct on climate change predictions? (via BBC)

LKY gets kicked in the balls

In Financial competency, Footie, Humour on 08/11/2012 at 10:28 am

“I’ve seen their property values going up, five times, 10 times, 15 times, 20 times,” our MSM reported him as saying recently.

This is what the SDP said in response, “Yes, and what for? To feel rich? Under the SDP Plan, Singaporeans don’t just have to feel rich. They can have their NOM flats and not be indebted for the rest of their lives. They can have financial security and lead fulfilling lives.” http://yoursdp.org/news/sdp_responds_to_lee_kuan_yew_on_housing/2012-11-07-5435

No comment about about SDP’s plans (this is what ST reported “experts” say): thinking about it. But it sure got great PR people team. Maybe PAP or govt should offer them jobs? MP Baey should recruit them for his firm? Can’t be good for H&R’s local and Asean practice that SDP is running rings round PAP and govt? The Dark Side can offer serious money, unlike the SDP. Unless of course, the rumours of CIA funding are not true. An SDP groupie assures me that CIA funding rumours are juz rumours. SDP as poor as Anglican church mice. Catholic church mice got serious money, what with Tony Tan (the president, not Hazel Poa’s hubbie) and George Yeo as members. Goes without saying that Methodist mice got $. Think Ng Eng Hen and wife (SingHeath CEO), and TJS’s in-laws.

Even pros don’t read to fine print

In Financial competency, Uncategorized on 06/11/2012 at 5:14 am

So the call for more transparency and disclosure is BS!

Sophisticated investors are supposed to read the documents. We all know that retail investors don’t often take the time to read disclosure, but the securities laws are based on the idea that information is filtered into the markets through disclosure to sophisticated investors who then set the real price of the security … If sophisticated investors can’t be bothered to read the documents and act on them, then we have a real gap in the entire disclosure regime and asset pricing generally.

Unfortunately, this is what the evidence from the C.D.O. market before the financial crisis shows. And because of this, the idea that requiring still more, better or clearer disclosure is likely to be unfruitful in many cases … Until we better understand how sophisticated investors process and read disclosure, regulators should be wary of trying to solve the problem by simply requiring more disclosure.


S-Reits: start thinking of taking profits?

In Financial competency, Reits on 03/11/2012 at 7:03 am

The demand for S-reits is resulting in falling yields.

But the demand is underpinned by macroeconomic uncertainties that are expected to linger, and the fact that S-Reits’ yield spread remains one of the highest in the world, when compared to other major Reit markets, said Credit Suisse in a report issued on Thurday.

“In our view, S-Reits still offer an attractive investment proposition given yields of 5-6 per cent on average,” said Credit Suisse.

The weighted-average yield for S-Reits trading above US$1 million per day is at 5.5%, which implies that a further yield compression of 50 basis points should easily translate into about 10% share price appreciation, offering a total return of about 15%, added Credit Suisse.

The only problems, I have about trimming my portfolio is that that I hold “risker” Reits, and the payouts could increase.

But it’s “watch and watch” from now one.

MFA is not as productive as its US, UK counterparts?

In Financial competency, Humour, Political governance on 31/10/2012 at 6:04 am

I came across the above table in a Special Report on India in the Economist. Tharoor was using this data to show that India was shortchanging itself diplomatically because it had about the same number of diplomats as S’pore. From my perspective, it is not productive that S’pore, a little red speck, has one diplomat for 6,000 S’poreans. Even the hegemon makes do with only one diplomat for every 16,000. people. It isn’t only SMEs that contribute to the productivity gap.  And the British, supposedly overstaffed, have one fat toff per 10,000 people.

No wonder the photo in ST of one George Yeo shows a rather thin man. No more living off the fat like his diplomats?

Wonder what our Asean neighbours’ per capita numbers are? I’m sure that they have numbers  closer to that of China or India than to the US.

Yes, yes, I left out the fact that the population of S’pore is “peanuts” compared to the US etc, and that there is likely to be an absolute minimum number of diplomats needed for efficiency, but if ministers and the local media regularly boast about S’pore’s per capita numbers, I’m juz using the same stick: to beat the BSers.

Finally, I wonder if our NS men are given the same line I waz given yrs ago. When I waz doing NS in the mid 70s, I waz told that we, had to fight, to buy time for our diplomats, to get the UN, USA etc to intervene. In the early 80s, I attended a course with some senior diplomats. I told them what I was tot. They rolled their eyes and said if the SAF had to go to war, MFA had already failed. No point asking US, UN for help.

Given one LKY liked to annoy the neighbours regularly, maybe MFA was doing a good job?

Apple’s in-house fund mgr

In Financial competency on 27/10/2012 at 9:51 am

Managing US$120bn from near Las Vegas

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/oct/26/apple-investment-manager-braeburn-capital

 

Why the powerful (and investors) regularly screw up

In Financial competency on 27/10/2012 at 5:01 am

“a disorder of intelligence” http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-19842100s/health-19842100.

Applies to investment decisions too.

Dow Jones Divergence

In Financial competency on 20/10/2012 at 5:08 am

A bullish call http://www.cnbc.com/id/49451687. But maybe it’s a bearish signal? When the DJI goes up and DJ Tpt does the other way or flat, it used to be a signal that DJI is toppish.

Oldies use yr CPF acct as savings, fixed deposit account

In Financial competency, Financial planning on 16/10/2012 at 5:28 am

See the low interest rates available in mkt. You get 2.5% minimum with CPF*.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporebusinessnews/view/1225421/1/.html

*Terms and conditions apply.))))

Three ways to invest indirectly in Apple

In Financial competency on 10/10/2012 at 6:34 am

Came across this link (Remember the German panzers smashed their way thru Western Europe and almost conquered Russia by using the “Indirect Approach”)

http://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0812/3-ways-to-indirectly-invest-in-apple.aspx?partner=ntu12&utm_source=newstouse&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=NTU-8/22/2012#axzz280TEhPob

But why you may not want to buy Apple http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-19834594. Remember the Germans still lost because they got the basics (the strength of Russia and the US, and the defiance of the British wrong.

Trading on superstitution

In Financial competency, Humour on 06/10/2012 at 6:07 am

Only a Chinese boy would combine stock market trading with mum’s superstitutions.

http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20120731-bulls-bears-and-black-cats/1

The mind of a con man and his victim

In Financial competency, Uncategorized on 04/10/2012 at 6:26 am

Given the news about police raids on a gold trading firm, this sounds topical: http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/08/20/examining-the-ponzi-scheme-through-the-mind-of-the-con-artist/?nl=business&emc=edit_dlbkam_20120821

Another interesting Cramer tactic

In Financial competency on 25/09/2012 at 5:04 am

Monitoring stocks that make new highs, then pull back. Then buy BUT he advises doing homework on why it shouldn’t fall further.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/48614526/page/4/

Jap stocks cont’d trading below book value

In Accounting, Financial competency, Japan on 17/09/2012 at 7:06 am
On Wednesday last week ”the broad Topix index closed at 0.89 times book value, a whisker away from its widest discount to the MSCI World for five years, and near its lowest level relative to the S&P 500 for almost eight years,” reported the FT.
 
What is cheap can stay cheap. But do remember that in the 1950s and 1960s, a few ang mohs bot Jap stocks because they were very cheap by Western standards. They became investment legends.

Gd news for Temasek on Chesapeake

In Energy, Financial competency, Temasek on 13/09/2012 at 7:18 am

This investment has been problematic for Temasek http://atans1.wordpress.com/?s=Chesapeake

The shares closed at US$19.89. Temasek owns bonds that are convertible at US$27 (issued when stock was around 23-25).

It has many problems but the most pressing problem it spends more than it makes. It expects to spend roughly US$14bn on capital expenditure, acquisitions, interest, dividends and taxes this year, against about US$3bn in operating cash flow.
 
So it has to sell.  This year, the company has reached agreements to sell US$11.6 bn worth of properties (including the ones reported below). It is aiming to raise a total of about US$13 bn to US$14 bn. S’poreans can only hope it succeeds.

The Chesapeake Energy Corporation said on Wednesday that it had agreed to a series of asset sales (US$6.9bn) as part of an effort to reduce its considerable debt burden.

Buy super blue chips BUT

In Financial competency, Financial planning on 08/09/2012 at 5:59 am

leverage up to the eyeballs for super. super returns.

Taz the unstated premise of modern portfolio theory.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2012/09/inefficient-markets

 

Long term investor while trading a stock

In China, Financial competency, Temasek on 04/09/2012 at 7:00 am

Jim Cramer’s “trading round a position”. Got to try it. Locks in profits.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/48614527?__source=ft&par=ft

Maybe Temasek is trading round its position in the Chinese banks it holds, given that China will not be pleased if it sells out of them. http://atans1.wordpress.com/2012/05/03/temasek-rebalancing-its-chinese-bank-portfolio/

Wilmar: Doing deals with what?

In Commodities, Financial competency on 29/08/2012 at 6:26 am

(Or “Why analysts are talking rubbish” or “Bond issue coming up”)

Analysts are telling Wilmar to do deals to get its share price up. Remember they have been fans of Wilmar and need the share price to recover to look gd. 
http://www.sfgate.com/business/bloomberg/article/Wilmar-Deals-Loom-With-Stock-at-65-Discount-to-3817390.php

This Kuok wants to do deals. Its in his blood.

But the analysts forget one thing. How is Wilmar going to finance its deals. Not thru a share issue: because as they are pointing out the shares are “super cheap”. Borrowing more money ain’t that easy because co has net debt of US$12.5bn on a market captalisation of US$19bn. True got gd cash flow and interest cover. But it would need brave bankers. Not many around nowadays as the irrational French frogs are nursing losses.

Err what a bond issue aimed at the retail investor? Why not call DBS? Reason: http://atans1.wordpress.com/2012/08/27/dbs-screws-its-customers-again-and-again/

Three cheers for CJ

In Banks, Financial competency on 19/08/2012 at 5:57 am

Chief Justice Chan Sek Keong said in a written judgment: “In the light of the many allegations made against many financial institutions for ‘mis-selling’ complex financial products to linguistically and financially illiterate and unwary customers during the financial crisis in 2008, it may be desirable for the courts to reconsider whether financial institutions should be accorded full immunity for such ‘misconduct’ by relying on non-reliance clauses which unsophisticated customers might have been induced or persuaded to sign without truly understanding their potential legal effect on any form of misconduct or negligence on the part of the relevant officers in relation to the investment recommended by them.”

http://www.todayonline.com/Singapore/EDC120817-0000042/Non-reliance-clauses–Time-to-reconsider?

Related posts:

http://atans1.wordpress.com/2012/08/17/hong-leong-finance-sues-morgan-stanley-for-deception-selling-investments-designed-to-fail/

http://atans1.wordpress.com/2011/04/01/helping-retail-investors-the-hk-way-and-the-spore-way/

http://atans1.wordpress.com/2010/08/06/what-abt-high-notes-sm-goh/

http://atans1.wordpress.com/2011/11/04/sporeans-get-justice-in-us/

Hong Leong Finance sues Morgan Stanley for deception, selling investments designed to fail

In Financial competency, Media on 17/08/2012 at 8:52 am

(I’m reporting this as our constructive, nation-building media only reported this story very briefly when it became public last week. Wonder why?)

“Morgan Stanley secretly, deceptively and wrongfully invested the investors’ principal in very risky underlying assets,” according to the complaint.

The investments were described to Heong Leong as synthetic collateralized debt obligations based on the performance of major corporations and sovereign nations with high credit ratings, according to the complaint.

Morgan Stanley instead tied the notes to much riskier investments in real estate-related companies and troubled Icelandic banks, including Glitnir Bank HF and Kaupthing Bank HF.

Morgan Stanley issued the notes through a special-purpose entity it controlled called Pinnacle. Italso positioned to profit when the notes failed because it had entered into swap transactions with the noteholders through another affiliated entity, Morgan Stanley Capital Services Inc.

“When Morgan Stanley’s ’rigged’ underlying assets failed, money from customers was transferred to MS Capital,” Hong Leong said in the complaint.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-06/morgan-stanley-sued-by-singapore-firm-over-pinnacle-notes.html

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