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Archive for the ‘Property’ Category

Iskandar, answer to rising costs, Reits & other cost tales

In Economy, Malaysia, Property, Reits on 09/03/2014 at 4:16 am

“The government has underestimated the impact of high business costs on our future economy,” said Inderjit Singh (Ang Mo Kio), urging the government to set up a cost competitiveness committee to tackle the root causes of soaring costs before SMEs and MNCs relocate with jobs in tow. He also asked the government to reverse its land divestment policy, which he deems a key reason behind high industrial rents.

Companies are facing a “triple whammy” of rising rents and utility bills, growing wage costs, and a shortage of workers, said Mr Singh, himself a businessman. And this “chronic” cost issue does not affect SMEs alone. “The top management of some large MNCs here … have expressed their serious concerns about the unrelenting increases of the cost of doing business coupled with the unavailability of workers,” he said.

Iskandar’s industrial parks are a “huge threat”, he said. If Singapore’s SMEs are forced to move to Johor, MNCs may follow their SME suppliers and subcontractors. “The exodus may be larger than we imagine … We risk hollowing out our economy in the future, and I would like to sound an alarm that we are close to the tipping point.”…

Though he acknowledged that PIC and PIC+ would help with topline revenues growth, Mr Singh said: “We are just trying to do too many things too fast, and this is hurting many companies.”

Both he and nominated MP R Dhinakaran, who is also managing director of Jay Gee Group, pointed to rising industrial and commercial rents as a key culprit of the high costs of doing business in Singapore.

Citing Association of Small and Medium Enterprises president Kurt Wee’s comment at BT’s Budget Roundtable that rents rise as much as three-fold when leases are renewed, Mr Dhinakaran said: “In this economic climate, rental increases of this magnitude will be fatal for a large number of SMEs.”

Both Mr Singh and Mr Dhinakaran also linked the high rental costs to the government’s land divestment policy. “JTC was a landlord for 18 per cent of industrial property some 10 years ago, but today manages only 3 per cent of the market. This is a huge shift, and the government lost the ability to influence rental prices resulting in developers and investors making the money,” said Mr Singh.

“We have to reverse this policy, even if it means the government having to buy back some of the Reits. In any case, the biggest Reit players are government-linked entities like Mapletree and CapitaLand,” he added.

Denise Phua (Moulmein-Kallang) felt that certain cost increases – the restoration of CPF contribution rates for older workers, higher progressive wages for low-income earners and cost hikes due to tighter low-skilled foreign manpower policies – are justified, with “strong rationale”.

But she also said that business rents need “the touch of the State”, and asked the government to consider “cooling measures, especially for business rents”.

BT 5 March

Given that Ascendas (a GLC) is the biggest player in the industrial land arena: why do you think when the govt says this?

The government will intervene if it sees evidence of collusion or the abuse of market dominance by any landlord – including real estate investment trusts (Reits), said Minister of State for Trade and Industry Teo Ser Luck … in Parliament … calls for help with climbing business costs (and in particular, the affordability of business space) have grown louder both in and outside of Parliament in recent months.

Reits – some of which were formed after JTC and HDB divested space to private owners – have been blamed for shorter lease renewals and sharper spikes in rentals.

“We know that it has come up as an issue, many of you have raised it. We will monitor it,” said Mr Teo.

At the same time, he noted that “Reits are not necessarily the leading players in the rental space market, because they currently only own about 13 per cent and 16 per cent of retail and industrial rental spaces respectively. Like any other landlord, they have to compete in the rental market to attract tenants and cannot charge excessive rents”.

Mr Teo also said that rents for space are likely to moderate in the medium term, as the government has released a “significant amount of land”.

Over the next three years, about 145,000 square metres of new shop space will be completed each year. Over the same period, an average of 500,000 square metres of multiple-user factory space will come on-stream each year.

For the former, that represents more than double the average annual demand for such space in the last three years; for the latter, it is just under double.

(BT 7 March)

Silicon Valley S’pore style?

Entrepreneurship will also receive a boost, since by the end of this year, JTC will open two more blocks to incubate start-ups, as part of a cluster called JTC LaunchPad@one-north.

“It’s our answer to Silicon Valley,” said Mr Teo.

The risk Reit buyers bear

In Financial competency, Property, Reits on 25/02/2014 at 4:09 am

CapitaMall Trust recently sold retail bond offering paying 3.08% annually.

Its units trade at a yield of 4.55% as yet yesterday’s close.

The percentage difference (48%) between the two numbers is the willingness that holders of the units are willing to accept (whether they realise it or not) for the higher (but not assured) payout. If Reits, reduce their payouts, the price falls to compensate for the reduced yield. Even if the payout remains constant, high yielding shares are only a good investment if a falling share price does not undo the yield return.

As there are many other Reits that have better yields, reit investors should be mindful of the risk they are assuming in chasing higher yields.

FYI, I’m still a holder of Reits.

Relared posts:

http://atans1.wordpress.com/2014/01/09/why-owning-reits-in-a-rising-interest-rate-environment-may-make-sense/

http://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/11/14/where-reits-can-go-wrong/

CapitaMall Trust launches retail bond offering paying 3.08% annually – See more at: http://sbr.com.sg/retail/news/capitamall-trust-launches-retail-bond-offering-paying-308-annually#sthash.pEWiNljc.dpuf

S&P: Tough year for S’pore and regional banks

In Banks, Economy, Property on 20/02/2014 at 4:14 am

Lower economic growth prospects and tighter credit conditions could create a tougher operating environment for the banking sector here and in the region, said a report by Standard & Poor’s (S&P) late last week.

S&P expects S’pore’s GDP) growth to fall to 3.4 % this year, from 3.7% last year.

The report also notes that corporate and household indebtedness has been on the rise here. The situation could worsen this year, in anticipation of interest rates rising; higher borrowing costs amid rising. See DBS’s CEO’s tots below* and related post http://atans1.wordpress.com/2014/01/16/why-banks-tested-for-50-plunge-in-property-prices-and-other-wonderful-tales/

Related articles: The three local banks posted their reports last week too and for quick snap-shots (not the usual ST or BT fluff)

http://sbr.com.sg/financial-services/news/5-highlights-you-should-know-about-uobs-2013-results

http://sbr.com.sg/financial-services/news/find-out-what-badly-hurt-ocbcs-fy13-results

http://sbr.com.sg/financial-services/news/dbs-braces-itself-looming-30-35-drop-in-mortgage-loan-applications

Charts on banks’ loans etc

http://sbr.com.sg/financial-services/news/10-charts-prove-singapore-banks-mixed-finish-2013

Cheap way of owning UOB shares

http://atans1.wordpress.com/2011/09/05/haw-par-rediscovered-yet-again/

Update at 6.ooam:

South-east Asia’s three biggest lenders, DBS, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp and United Overseas Bank, have seen their share prices rise this week after posting solid results last Friday. Common trends in the fourth quarter were better margins, trade finance-driven loan growth, seasonally softer treasury earnings and no asset quality weakness, CIMB noted.

UOB has been the star performer this week, gaining 3.5 per cent, while OCBC has risen 2.3 per cent and DBS 0.4 per cent.

UOB, despite being the smallest of the trio, has been particularly impressive with its fee income and regional strategies, CMC Markets Analyst Desmond Chua told TODAY.

“In terms of fee income, it has performed relatively well while the market has been lacklustre, in part due to a higher interest outlook. Its diversification to grow in regional emerging markets has also helped it maintain loan growth despite weaker mortgage demand in Singapore,” he said.

“On the other hand, OCBC’s share price might have been affected by the prospect of its overpriced acquisition of Wing Hang Bank in Hong Kong while DBS hasn’t been able to impress with its fee-based revenue in recent times despite aggressively attacking this space,” he added.

UOB’s net interest margin, which is the highest among local banks at 1.72 per cent full-year, is another advantage for the lender, Voyage Research’s Deputy Research Head Ng Kian Teck added. “UOB has historically been good on this front, and it means the bank can churn the most value out of every dollar loaned — that’s what’s attracting the investors,” he said.

All three banks ended last year on a positive note, with their fourth-quarter net profit rising between 6 and 11 per cent on the back of strong growth in net interest income.

The banks have also continued to solidify their regional presence, drawing more revenue from overseas than before.

….

“Their return on equity is healthier vis-a-vis the other industries, which are facing greater margin pressure due to higher wages. But the banks have been able to control this issue better.”

CMC Markets’ Mr Chua is also bullish, saying: “I’m looking at the banking space being an outperformer this year even though interest rates are bound to rise. Their tactical diversification across this region allows them to tap into Indonesia’s emerging affluent segment, for example.

Update at 5.15pm:Can Singapore safely deflate its property market? http://www.cnbc.com/id/101409247

————————

*DBS Bank chief executive Piyush Gupta expects home prices to fall by 10-15 per cent this year – more than the 10 per cent forecast by property consultants – but says that this decline would not make a material impact on the bank’s loan book. Speaking at DBS’s Q4 results briefing, he said it is likely that the prices of high-end homes will slide 15 per cent, and that for lower-end ones, by 10 per cent.

As for the higher interest rates expected with the shrinking of monetary stimulus policy by the US, he said he was not expecting it to have any effect on DBS. “The Singapore portfolio is really driven on income considerations . . . As I’ve said before, the pressure will likely start coming when unemployment rises – more than when property prices change.” Singapore’s unemployment rate is now at a low 1.8 per cent.

Mr Gupta said: “All our stress tests in the past have shown that we can easily withstand a 20 per cent reduction in Singapore property prices without material impact on our portfolio. We stress-test (for a) 20 (per cent fall in property prices), but don’t expect it to happen; our stress tests are always calibrated to go off the charts. My own sense is that there will be a correction of 10-15 per cent.”

He noted that the market was already stabilising and that the froth was running off, but that if this continued, the government would roll back some of the macro prudential measures. Sales of new mortgages have plunged 30-35 per cent at DBS, and by 40-50 per cent at OCBC Bank as a result of the stricter loan rules.

Mr Gupta likened the Singapore property market to that of New York and London, where prices held up even during the financial crisis between 2008 and 2012. While prices in the rest of the US fell by about a third, prices in New York slipped by only 10 per cent. It was a similar situation in London, another city where the demand is not dependent on the state of the domestic economy.

Mr Gupta said he expects regional money buying properties here to also put a floor under prices. With the slower sales, DBS’s $49.1 billion mortgage book is likely to grow by $2 billion to $2.5 billion this year, down from $3.5 billion last year and $5 billion the year before that, said Mr Gupta.

OCBC Bank chief operating officer Ching Wei Hong said of the new mortgage sales having declined across the board: “That’s expected, given all the cooling measures that have been imposed. We’ve built up a healthy inventory level. The inventory drives the growth of (the loan) book, going into 2014 and 2015. Beyond 2015 H2 and 2016, if conditions remain the same, we’ll see a bit of tapering in that period.”

(BT article last Saturday)

Buying, renting or the Korean way?

In Economy, Financial competency, Property on 18/02/2014 at 4:23 am

Recently, the FT carried a commentary (behind pay-wall) on why a leading UK architect was renting, not buying (UK has a home-purchasing culture which one LKY imported and made S’porean for reasons explained below).

Here are two gd responses to the article:

– “People are obliged to borrow to buy property because they need a roof over their heads when they retire and do not want to be at the mercy of a landlord, who will increase the rent annually and reserve the right to serve notice three months after signing the annual shorthold tenancy agreement.” (a reader)

–”As everyone knows, buying property used to be like standing in front of a fruit machine that was jammed on three cherries. Wealth came pouring out. And as everyone also knows, that machine has now stopped dispensing cash. You can’t buy a house that will change your life like my grandmother did, nor buy a flat that makes you rich, like I did when I was only 23. Most people can’t afford to buy anything at all.” (Lucy Kellaway, an FT columnist)”

She also reminds, “It has nothing to do with money, and everything to do with culture, emotion and family.” The very reason why the PAP govt wants S’poreans to own their homes, never mind that most of them are buying 99-yr leases.

At the end of the day as she points out, buying “is a wise move” when property prices go up, “renting is smarter” when prices go down. So long as S’pore is a one-party state with the PAP in charge, property prices may keep on rising*. With WP or SDP in charge, what do you think?

—–

In Korea, there is an unusual rental system, known as jeonse, does not involve monthly rental payments. Instead, tenants provide landlords with a deposit, typically between a quarter and half of the property’s value, to invest for the duration of the lease. Property owners keep the returns and then repay the lump sum at the end of the tenancy … Tenants’ deposits financed landlords’ properties, interest-free, while pushing renters to pool savings: over time, the deposit would become their own home-purchase fund. For decades, monthly rental was synonymous with poverty.

Yet interest rates and property prices have sunk since 2008. To earn a decent return on their investments, landlords have been raising jeonse prices.

(http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21596566-landlords-are-having-ditch-century-old-rental-system-lumping-it)

Related article: This S’porean bot http://www.cpf.gov.sg/imsavvy/infohub_article.asp?readid={157655219-19866-5631219744}

Related posts

http://atans1.wordpress.com/2014/02/10/bring-back-super-mah/

http://atans1.wordpress.com/2014/01/16/why-banks-tested-for-50-plunge-in-property-prices-and-other-wonderful-tales/

http://atans1.wordpress.com/2014/02/11/property-khaw-must-be-doing-shumething-right/

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*But not in 2014:

DBS Bank chief executive Piyush Gupta expects home prices to fall by 10-15 per cent this year – more than the 10 per cent forecast by property consultants – but says that this decline would not make a material impact on the bank’s loan book. Speaking at DBS’s Q4 results briefing, he said it is likely that the prices of high-end homes will slide 15 per cent, and that for lower-end ones, by 10 per cent.

As for the higher interest rates expected with the shrinking of monetary stimulus policy by the US, he said he was not expecting it to have any effect on DBS. “The Singapore portfolio is really driven on income considerations . . . As I’ve said before, the pressure will likely start coming when unemployment rises – more than when property prices change.” Singapore’s unemployment rate is now at a low 1.8 per cent.

Mr Gupta said: “All our stress tests in the past have shown that we can easily withstand a 20 per cent reduction in Singapore property prices without material impact on our portfolio. We stress-test (for a) 20 (per cent fall in property prices), but don’t expect it to happen; our stress tests are always calibrated to go off the charts. My own sense is that there will be a correction of 10-15 per cent.”

He noted that the market was already stabilising and that the froth was running off, but that if this continued, the government would roll back some of the macro prudential measures. Sales of new mortgages have plunged 30-35 per cent at DBS, and by 40-50 per cent at OCBC Bank as a result of the stricter loan rules.

Mr Gupta likened the Singapore property market to that of New York and London, where prices held up even during the financial crisis between 2008 and 2012. While prices in the rest of the US fell by about a third, prices in New York slipped by only 10 per cent. It was a similar situation in London, another city where the demand is not dependent on the state of the domestic economy.

Mr Gupta said he expects regional money buying properties here to also put a floor under prices. With the slower sales, DBS’s $49.1 billion mortgage book is likely to grow by $2 billion to $2.5 billion this year, down from $3.5 billion last year and $5 billion the year before that, said Mr Gupta.

OCBC Bank chief operating officer Ching Wei Hong said of the new mortgage sales having declined across the board: “That’s expected, given all the cooling measures that have been imposed. We’ve built up a healthy inventory level. The inventory drives the growth of (the loan) book, going into 2014 and 2015. Beyond 2015 H2 and 2016, if conditions remain the same, we’ll see a bit of tapering in that period.”

(BT article last Saturday)

Property: Khaw must be doing shumething right

In Property, Public Administration on 11/02/2014 at 4:18 am

(And so is Paper General Tan)

Yesterday, I blogged about a HDB owner worried that he would lose money on his HDB flat and wanted assurances from govt that this wouldn’t happen.

When even a property mogul asks the govt to review restrictions, it’s clear that Khaw is getting something right. Last Saturday BT reported the following:

IT is time for the government to tweak some of its property cooling measures such as the additional buyer’s stamp duty (ABSD), given concerns over the global economy and signs that the property market here is slowing down, said Kwek Leng Beng, executive chairman of Hong Leong Group Singapore and property developer City Developments.

He suggested that the government consider lifting the hefty stamp duties imposed on foreigners when they buy property here, and replace it with a tax on sellers who offload their property three or four years after snapping it up.

“Everybody is attracting foreigners today to their countries. We should attract foreigners. But if . . . you penalise them by having to pay additional tax, then they (will) say you don’t welcome me.

“So why don’t you (the government) just say, if you sell within three years, four years, then I tax you. You come in (and buy property) I don’t want to tax. I think this is one way,” said Mr Kwek, who was speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the Real Estate Developers’ Association of Singapore (Redas) Spring Festival lunch yesterday.

The government can also consider lifting ABSD for locals – who are subject to the additional tax when they purchase more than one home – and permanent residents, he said.

“I don’t think there is a lot of speculation. The prices are high because developers have got no land stock . . . in the land bank. (At the same time) they have to survive, they cannot let business come to a standstill.

“So I think for some of these, we will (need to) have a dialogue with the government . . . I think the government has the bigger picture. We leave it to them. They are trying their best. They want a stabilised market. We will cooperate with them.”

Mr Kwek’s comments come amid signs that the housing market is slowing down. Statistics from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) showed that for the last three months of 2013, private home prices fell 0.9 per cent – the first quarterly drop in about two years. For the full year, URA’s overall private home price index ended 1.1 per cent higher – a smaller gain compared with the 2.8 per cent recorded in 2012.

And when developers talk like this you know that they are concerned that MoM is monitoring their work practices:

Besides working closely with the government to build a healthy property market, developers will also work closely with the government on the next phase of nation-building and real estate development to achieve a “distinctive, high-quality living environment for all”, said Chia Boon Kuah, president of Redas.

This means that construction activity will remain at high levels and continue unabated for several years, making it “ever more important to re-focus our collective attention on workplace safety and welfare of the some 30,000 migrant workers in our industry”, he said.

“As developers, we should support our contractors in showing duty of care for the health, safety and welfare of these workers. This enhances productivity, which, in the long run, translates into benefits for all.”

Last month, a worksite accident in Sentosa left one foreign worker dead and 10 others injured.

The death of the worker takes the number of fatalities at worksite accidents to nine in just over a month, prompting Acting Manpower Minister Tan Chuan-Jin to write on his blog that the recent spate of accidents was “not tenable”.

Developers and contractors should, therefore, “up the ante on workplace safety training and communication” and “recognise the contributions these workers make to our country”, said Mr Chia, who is also group president and chief executive of developer GuocoLand.

Redas would hold a forum to identify and discuss common causes behind construction workplace accidents, challenges to risk reduction and best practices, he said.

Two cheers each for Khaw, Mom Tan and of course their boss, the PM. Three cheers for each is a cheer too far.

two cheers for

British

used for saying that you think something is good but that it could be better

Bring back Super Mah?

In Political governance, Property, Public Administration on 10/02/2014 at 4:52 am

If the PM brings back Mah, the minister who made sure HDB prices rose in a recession*, this Forum writer should be very, very happy about. HDB prices not falling. But to be fair to this idiot KS S’porean, P Ravi has empathy for the sentiments expressed.Still that doesn’t excuse his sense of entitlement.

Can Govt ensure HDB flats keep their value over time?

There have been recent reports on the falling prices of Housing Board resale flats (“First HDB resale price dip since 2005″, Jan 25; and “Resale flat prices not yet at ‘steady state’”; last Sunday)

The number of resale transactions has fallen considerably and we are seeing some negative cash-over-valuation deals.

Despite this, National Development Minister Khaw Boon Wan says a “steady state” has yet to be reached and that home buyers should welcome the softening prices of HDB resale flats.

A few years ago, I took part in several flat balloting exercises as a first-time buyer. I was not successful and had to pay a steep price for a resale flat.

Then National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan had said flat owners would benefit from rising prices because their homes would become more valuable.

There is certainly a need to ensure flat buyers are not disadvantaged by overly high prices.

But it is equally imperative that due consideration be given to flat owners, so they will not suffer a loss in the value of their homes over time. Are there measures to ensure this will not happen?

Chan Kwang Ping

P Ravi on Facebook commenting on the above, “People cannot be faulted for buying a flat even when the price is high and it is the sellers’ market, because whatever the market condition, people still need a house to live in. When people’s retirement fund are stuck in the house they own, such sentiments are understandable.”

What do you think?

And do you think he he will vote for WP? Maybe as WP has promised that it will only be PAP’s co-driver, a co-driver that will let PAP do as its like (OK! OK! WP says will slap PAP if it makes mistakes. But it only gets worked up when NEA, PA and PAP make trouble for WP: not when PAP makes trouble for S’poreans.). Will he vote RP or NSP? Err I don’t think he that stupid.

Will he vote SDP? I hope so (even if I think that its policy of crawling to the Indons doesn’t work), but doubt it as SDP wants to cut the link between investment for retirement and public housing.  A laudable, rational aim, but a tough sell when so many S’poreans are taking 25 yrs to pay off 99-yr HDB leases (About 87% of S’poreans live in HDB flata). Besides these leases have been a gd investment on paper (but useless as security), so far. Hmm maybe SDP should stress these flaws.

Khaw should say, “Vote PAP leh”.

Related posts:

http://atans1.wordpress.com/2011/11/19/hdb-oversupply-again-by-next-ge/

http://atans1.wordpress.com/2011/06/01/consequences-of-khaws-hdb-policies/

http://atans1.wordpress.com/2011/10/27/hdb-affordability-and-market-based-land-costs-redefined/

——-

*http://atans1.wordpress.com/2011/04/30/property-prices-going-against-natural-laws/

Intellectual netizen hero critiques doom monger & govt policy

In Economy, Indonesia, Malaysia, Property on 18/01/2014 at 4:56 am

(Or “Are S’pore & other major Asean economies are doomed?)

Even though Singapore is no longer an emerging market nation, I consider its bubble economy to be part of the overall emerging markets bubble that I have been warning about due to its strategic role and location in Southeast Asia, which is also known as ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations). My recent reports on Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia show that the entire region is caught up in a massive bubble, and Singapore is benefiting from this bubble by acting as ASEAN’s financial center.

(http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2014/01/13/why-singapores-economy-is-heading-for-an-iceland-style-meltdown)

This piece and its sequel have been well publicised, and the central babk has critiqued the first piece (It would wouldn’t it?)

Readers may recall that Donald Low is a scholar who has liberal viewers despite being the Associate Dean (Executive Education and Research) at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy. He served fifteen years in the Singapore government and I’ve been told he was one of the fathers of Workfare (a scheme I support though I think it’s too mean). He critiqued the article on Facebook as regards S’pore. I’ve paragraphed hos comments to make it easier on the eye:

Donald Low’s FC

There’s a Forbes article on an impending crash in Singapore circulating widely on FB. I won’t dignify it by posting it but here are my thoughts about it: I read the article a while ago and wasn’t at all convinced with his line of argument. It’s just far too sweeping.

Above all, if you look at the usual triggers of financial crises, they are mostly non-existent in Singapore. We don’t have a large current account deficit – on the contrary, we have a huge current account surplus. We don’t have a large fiscal deficit – we run structural budget surpluses. And we don’t have an highly leveraged/indebted household or corporate sector.

On his point about a housing bubble in Singapore fueled by low interest rates, he is partially correct. But to claim that we are on the verge of financial collapse on account of that is utter nonsense. Our leverage ratios are still healthy and I suspect a large part of the run-up in housing prices in recent years is inadequate supply – a problem which has now been largely corrected. Will we see house prices fall this year? Yes, quite possibly. My guess is 10% but even if house prices were to fall 20%, I don’t think it will impact the health of our banks or even our households. There will be households that have negative equity, but as long as they have the cash flow to service their mortgages, it will not precipitate a financial crash.

But there is one argument from the article that is worth highlighting and which I mostly agree with. And that is booms which are led by real estate development and the financial sector are mostly illusory. They create the impression of economic dynamism without creating any real productive capacity in the economy (think back to Bangkok, KL and Jakarta just before the Asian crisis). They also distort and re-direct resources away from productive activities. Real estate and finance are inherently distributive, not creative, activities – they move money and wealth around, but they don’t produce any productive capacity and technological capabilities for the economy.

So when I argue that the Singapore government should look not just at the quantity of growth, but also the quality of growth, I have in mind not just equity and distributional considerations, but also the composition of growth. Is the growth coming from manufacturing and high value-added services, or is it dominated by real estate and finance? If it’s the latter, we have a structural problem.

Finally, I would also highlight that what this article reveals is the failure of government efforts to attract high net worth individuals to Singapore, to make Singapore a wealth management hub for the rich, and to bring in more billionaires even if they increase inequality. I think the costs to the economy and society of such efforts far outweigh their benefits. What productive capacity do property speculators and HNWIs who park their monies in Singapore help to create? So yes, we get a tiny wealth management industry that employs a few thousand people and manages several billion dollars. We can easily do without these ‘benefits’. Meanwhile, their costs in terms of raising property prices, the competition they create for positional goods, and their ostentatious lifestyles undermine our egalitarian norms and values. They also reduce the trust and mutual regard citizens have for one another, undermining their willingness to contribute to more redistribution. All in, I would say that the efforts to attract rich foreigners to Singapore are incredibly misguided.

Why banks tested for 50% plunge in property prices and other wonderful tales

In Economy, Property on 16/01/2014 at 4:23 am

Singapore banks are so well-buffered that they will be able to withstand even a 50 per cent plunge in property prices here if this were to occur over the next two years, say stress tests done by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). (BT late last yr)

I waz wondering when I read the above, why 50%?

Now I know: typical govt over-reaction:

BOTH public and private housing prices in Singapore have finally come down after a raft of government market curbs.

Prices in the once red-hot suburban private home market dropped in the fourth quarter of last year for the first time since 2009, new data yesterday showed. This dragged down overall private home prices.

Housing Board flat resale prices also tumbled in the October to December period, hard on the heels of a third-quarter decline.

This marked the first time public housing prices have slid for two straight quarters since 2005.

Consultants said weak demand for homes could mean that sellers will finally be at the mercy of home buyers this year, adding that a bumper crop of upcoming homes will swing things more heavily in favour of buyers.

http://www.cpf.gov.sg/imsavvy/infohub_article.asp?readid={417120496-19741-7479931115}

Well if property prices ever fell 50%, the PAP govt would be overthrown overnight. And the co-driver kicked out with it. mad Doc and his RI doctors will be in charge Actually it would be the end of the world as we know it.

But maybe the govt isn’t over-reacting: http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2014/01/13/why-singapores-economy-is-heading-for-an-iceland-style-meltdown/. Note that the article conveniently forgets that the banks have been stress-tested to survive even a 50% fall in property prices. Lots of other things wrong with the analysis that I’ll cover one of these days. But for now juz remember that one LKY was a regular contributor to Forbes. Taz the quality of their contributors? Oh, the central bank has come up with a rebuttal: read it in yesterday’s constructive, nation-building media.

Next tale: the cowboys were correct that the govt should restrict HDB sales to PRs:

The proportion of Permanent Residents (PRs) buying Housing and Development Board (HDB) resale flats has gone down in the last few months.

This comes after new rules to stabilise the HDB resale market were announced in August.

PRs now have to wait three years after obtaining their Singapore PR status before they are allowed to buy an HDB resale flat.

According to HDB, in the three months after the new rules were announced, PRs made up 12 per cent of all HDB resale transactions, with 528 units sold to them.

This is down eight percentage points from January to August, when PRs made up 20 per cent of all HDB resale transactions.

There were 2,581 resale flats sold during that period.

HDB also noted that the decrease is not unexpected, as there are now fewer PRs eligible to buy a resale flat.

It also pointed out the drop may not be solely due to the three-year waiting period. (CNA 23 december 2013).

Maybe PM should outsource policy decisions to the masses. Even IT operations are being done by the masses via crowdsourcing http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25714443.

Why owning Reits in a rising interest rate environment may make sense

In Financial competency, Property, Reits on 09/01/2014 at 4:46 am

When ST talks down Reits, as it has been recently, because interest rates are rising, it’s time think again. Remember its big-balls up when Reits were at their (with hindsight) their peak in May last yr?

Here’s some stuff that appeared in reference with US Reits but is applicable here: While REIT investors did an about-face following the Fed’s tapering announcement, some industry experts say all the attention surrounding interest rates and REITs is unfounded. “Ever since May 22, there’s been this discussion about the role of interest rates in REIT returns – and it’s a very strange discussion,” said Brad Case, VP of Research with the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts (NAREIT) in a recent interview with CoStar News. “Because the truth is, when interest rates go up, it usually means the economy is strengthening. That’s good news for REITs and means that returns will be strong.” In support of this statement, Case pointed out that REITs have performed well in 12 out of 16 periods of interest rate increases since 1995.

But be prepared that they underperform other types of “shares”

While there is controversy regarding the degree to which interest rates affect REITs, Affleck pointed out that investors need to consider more than just how REITs perform when interest rates change. “The relevant measure is not whether REITs have done well during interest rate increases, but how they performed relative to the broader market,” Affleck said. “On that count, the data are definitive – REIT performance relative to the broad market is inversely related to interest rate movements.” Affleck added that REITs outperformed the broad market – gaining 27% compared to a 20% gain for the S&P 500 – when interest rates fell from 3.5% in March 2011 to 1.5% in April 2013.

Juz take the payouts and bank them. But remember that Reits, unlike shares, pay out most of the income they get.When things go wrong (higher borrowing costs, lower rents), payouts suffer. No buffer, unlike comnpanies dividends. In the worse case, can end up having to subscribe to rights issues because Reits don’t have reserves to draw on in hard times.

Related post: http://atans1.wordpress.com/2011/12/12/primer-on-yields-of-reits-biz-trusts/

TRE readers are illiterate in economics and finance

In Economy, Financial competency, Property on 19/12/2013 at 4:51 am

Or at least many are. Let me explain.

TRE posted this piece of mine on Reits.

It provoked a long rant* from someone called Armchair Anarchist. His or her basic grumble against the govt was that interest rates should have been raised a few back to curb various ills including rising property prices. It received huge positive ratings. And there are no dissenting views, not one.

Last yr around this time, I met an old friend at a function. He was an ISD detainee (short while and it seems ’cause dad was Barisan partisan)) and a strike leader. He later got a MA in Econs and was in admin service (taz meritocracy at work in S’pore, TRE readers, at least 30 yrs ago) before becoming a wheeler-dealer.He was, and is a proud S’porean. No S’pore hater he.

We were discussing what Tharman would do in 2013 to control inflation and property prices given that he couldn’t use interest rates, and the policy of strengthening the currency slowly was not working to control inflation or property prices.

We knew that raising interest rates would only make things worse. Given that everyone (except TRE, TOC and TRS readers) think that S’pore is a safe haven, raising interest rates will result in more foreign money pouring in to take advantage of the better yield here. The currency will be pushed up and exports and services will become uncompetitive. Prices of  most properties (and other assets) will rise. FTs will be willing to accept lower wages, ’cause S$ worth a lot more in their home currencies.

The result: a recession, unemployment among locals, deflation and rising asset prices (except possibly for HDB flats and low end condos: S’porean PMEs default ’cause they lose jobs to FTs). He and I and others with access to credit would make a killing buy low-end condos and renting them out to FT PMEs.

Is this what TRE readers want for Christmas and Chinese New Year?

Are they that deft?

—-

*Armchair Anarchist:

S-REITs payouts lean towards the high side of the global REIT market (e.g. average dividend yield of around 6+% compared to less than 5% in Japan and Germany, 6% UK). If dividends are cut by 20-25%, the yield is still relatively attractive given the dearth of high yielding instruments in Singapore.

But I do find MAS’s warning rather strange. If they are indeed worried about such things as REITs and the health of the Singapore financial sector in face of a potential rise in interest rates, the MAS ought to have engineered such a rise in rates at least 2 years ago and taken the froth out of REITS, the property market and reduced the risk in Singaprean banks’s balance sheets. Why issue warning now that the Fed may begin to taper when the MAS ought to have acted long ago? The easy financing for real estate speculation and the rise in inflation are not new. These had been with us for a few years now and are clear warning signs that interest rates are too low and liquidity too plentiful in Singapore. Look at bank deposit rates and CPF ordinary account rates: we suffered from negative real interest rates when adjusted for the underlying inflation rate (CPI is too crude, PCE deflator is a better indicator). When real rates are negative, the ordinary savers suffered as the value of their savings are inflated away. But it is great for speculators and big companies because it provides a very cheap source of debt financing.

Seems to me, the MAS is probably basking in the reflected glory of superior GDP growth while sleeping on the job in terms of forecasting the real threat to the economy. Another bunch of over-paid, incompetent elites?

Rating: +25 (from 25 votes)

Armchair Anarchist:

I like expand a little bit more on MAS caution regarding rise in interest rates.

My view is MAS left it rather late in the day to caution and to act if necessary. Certain sectors will be hit, not least real estate which had several adrenalin shots that propel values ever higher. But, for our savings and long term investments, it is no bad thing if interest rates are going up. It is my conviction that not just exercising political repression, the govt also exercise financial repression. I said before our AAA-rating is absolutely great for GLCs and big companies but a total disaster for ordinary citizens who have to save and invest for retirement and the rainy day. The Govt incessant extraction of revenues from all sorts of economic activity (tax, COE, surcharges etc)result in persistent budget surplus because in their anti-welfare extremism, the govt do not spend much on social, health and infrastructure programmes. Therefore, our bond yields are artificially low because the govt do not really need to borrow. The govt actually pretend that our CPF rates are pegged to market but in effect the govt control the levers of the bond markets giving themselves a low financing rate. The effect is that we received bugger-all out of bank deposits, CPF and bonds. Singapore company dividends are lousy because whatever crap they pay is still higher than CPF and bond yields.

So let interest rates go up. At least it reverse the equation slightly in favour of the man in the street rather than have the Govt, the GLCs and the big companies indulged themselves in winner-takes-all.

Rating: +20 (from 20 votes)

Central bank cautions on Reits

In Property, Reits on 12/12/2013 at 6:02 am

[A] Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) report … warned that a rise in rates will hit Reits – and lower their dividends.

Reits own a portfolio of property and pay investors regular dividends out of their income – the property rentals received.

The central bank’s financial stability review noted that Reits need to distribute 90 per cent of any taxable income to unitholders.

So these vehicles have limited retained earnings and are dependent on capital markets and banks to meet their financing needs.

The MAS estimated that the ease with which Singapore-listed Reits would be able to pay their interest bills would fall markedly once interest rates headed north.

The median “interest cover” for Singapore-listed Reits would fall from 6.8 to 3.5 times if interest rates were to rise by 3 percentage points, the MAS estimated.

The interest cover is a ratio used to determine how easily a company can pay interest on its debt – the higher the ratio, the easier the interest can be paid.

The MAS also warned that higher interest rates would likely increase interest expenses and lead to lower dividend payouts. Reits might then appeal less to investors, capping their ability to raise more cash from capital markets.

On the bright side, the debt maturity profile of Reits is better now than before the global financial crisis in 2008 and 2009.

A smaller proportion of borrowings by Reits are due for refinancing in the next two years.

The MAS also issued a warning over the larger corporate sector.

“If interest rates were to rise from their currently low levels, firms’ debt-servicing burdens could increase significantly.”

http://www.cpf.gov.sg/imsavvy/infohub_article.asp?readid={1011063489-19666-9955500363}

Don’t blame govt if Reits tank after you buy buy.

Possible gd alt to Reits for the KS: http://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/10/03/temaseks-fab-5-spore-blue-chips/. While the yields are not as high, some pretty lowish in fact, they are not highly leveraged and have maintained steady pay-outs.  And think ComfortDelgro and even SMRT (fare rises leh)

Related post: http://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/11/14/where-reits-can-go-wrong/

What a 4-room HDB flat buys in Iskandar & KL.

In Malaysia, Property on 01/12/2013 at 4:28 am
Why it’s right to vote for the PAP if one has fully-paid up or even if 50% paid up,  landed, condo or HDB flat:
While Horizon Hills surrounds a golf course and is luxurious by Malaysian standards, homes cost far less than in Singapore. Four-bedroom houses in the 1,200-acre (487-hectare) development, popular with expatriates, are advertised online at $270 per square foot, compared with the $503 per square foot asked for a four-bedroom public-housing flat in Singapore’s central Bishan district.
The average price of a new 1,000-square-foot (93-square-meter) condominium in Singapore is between $800,000 and $960,000, according to London-based broker Savills Plc. A similar-sized place in Kuala Lumpur costs about $374,000, according to CBRE Group Inc.’s Malaysian unit. [[Less than 4-room HDB flat too.]
(http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-19/singapore-property-boom-fuels-malaysia-spillover-bubble.html)And property in Iskandar will only get cheaper:
Iskandar developers seen taking a big hitHeftier taxes, scrapping of easy financing will deter buyers, says RHB ResearchDEVELOPERS with substantial exposure to the Iskandar Malaysia region are expected to be the “worst hit” by recent property measures, as heftier taxes would deter short-term foreign purchasers who also account for a significant portion of residential sales in some areas, a research house has said.

At the same time, overseas developers are expected to be more cautious about land transactions as more punitive taxes could lead to higher landholding costs, said RHB Research.

CBRE data indicates that foreign buyers account for 54 per cent of total high-rise residential sales (by developers) in Nusajaya, and 39 per cent in Johor Baru and major suburbs.

But the new 30 per cent RPGT (real property gains tax) on foreigners who gain on disposals within the first five years of acquisition is likely to “wipe out short-term foreign speculators to a certain extent”, RHB observed in a real estate report dated yesterday. (Friday’s BT)

Related posts: http://atans1.wordpress.com/tag/iskandarland/

http://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/11/04/paps-view-of-us-40ers/

Where Reits can go wrong

In Property, Reits on 14/11/2013 at 5:20 am

Reits are back in fashion after the Fed delayed tapering. QE is still coming.

So bear in mind the following comments by Fitching Ratings (ST 10 October 2013):

Yet key risks remain, including high-leveraged Reits that borrowed more to take advantage of low interest rates.

Reits could also face refinancing issues if loans are not renewed or when asset values fall below what had been anticipated.

Rising supply could also hit industrial Reits, with more multi-user factory space coming onstream over the next two years.

This could depress rents and lower asset valuations, which would worsen the sector’s financial metrics, warned Fitch Ratings.

“This is particularly salient for the hospitality industry which is the most cyclical and leveraged of the Reits under Fitch’s coverage,” the agency stated.

http://www.cpf.gov.sg/imsavvy/infohub_article.asp?readid={412728214-19457-4491932987}

I’m still long Reits, have no intention of selling yet, but am not a buyer. http://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/07/08/why-im-not-selling-my-reits-yet/. Look at dividend stocks. KS people shld look at Temasek Fab 5  and compare their dividends with waz available from CPF or govt bonds or S$ fixed deposits.

Iskandar & related BT story suck

In Malaysia, Property on 10/11/2013 at 6:20 am

Trumpets pls for this recent post on Iskandar.

M’sians Double confirm now that S’poreans kanna screwed by the M’sian govt Budget measures and Johor’s proposed

Malaysia’s Iskandar Waterfront delays IPO on gov’t property steps -sources

* Postpones listing to Q4 2014, a year later than initially planned

* Concerned measures to rein in property prices will slow demand

* Not immediately clear if delay will impact Johor metropolis development

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/11/04/malaysia-iskandar-ipo-idUKL3N0IP1FE20131104

This story came out juz after a BT article on 4 November 2013, a few hours before the above appeared:

Jubilee: An interesting Iskandar play

THE property rush across the Causeway in the past couple of years has seen prices in Iskandar Malaysia double or even triple. Despite talk of a bubble, investors unwilling to jump onto the buyers’ bandwagon can still take bets on property developers themselves.

Jubilee Industries Holdings – formerly loss-making plastic injection mould producer JLJ Holdings – appears poised to be the latest intriguing Iskandar play on Singapore Exchange.

A proposed reverse takeover (RTO) announced in mid-October will see Singaporean businessman Dennis Ng inject Tenderside Ventures, a subsidiary of his Malaysian property development company Jewelstone Properties, into Catalyst-quoted Jubilee.

The deal gives a well-connected and established family a foothold in a listed entity in Singapore.

Mr Ng is executive director of United Malayan Land (UMLand), of which his father, Ng Eng Tee, is deputy chairman and also executive director.

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/premium/companies/others/jubilee-interesting-iskandar-play-20131104

Even NY & London getting less friendly to non-resident property owners

In Property on 03/11/2013 at 4:25 am

NY and London vie for the status of the world’s most global city. Yet even NY and the UK are showing signs of getting tired of too many FTs (where the “T” stands for “Talent” not “Trash”)

Plan to Tax the Rich Could Aim at Nonresidents “Ultrawealthy nonresidents who own property in New York City certainly make a ripe target for potential revenue,” James B. Stewart writes in the Common Sense column in The New York Times. “People who spend fewer than half the year in New York City don’t pay any city income tax, even if they generate much of their fortune in the city.”

Meanwhile in the UK,

The government is reported to be considering a tax for overseas investors buying UK properties, in a move to stop house prices rushing out of reach of homebuyers.

Sky News claims that the chancellor, George Osborne, is “actively investigating” charging capital gains tax (CGT) when foreign buyers sell UK homes, in a move that will bring their taxation in line with UK citizens.

Currently, only UK citizens and residents pay the tax, which is charged on profits made from the sale of any property that is not the owner’s main home. Basic rate taxpayers pay 18% of the profits, while higher rate payers hand over 28%.

http://www.theguardian.com/money/2013/oct/31/george-osborne-capital-gains-tax-overseas-buyers

 

The maths of salaries when mortgage rates rise 50%

In Financial competency, Property on 28/07/2013 at 10:22 am

Up to 9,000 Singapore private property owners could be forced to sell their homes if interest rates rise in the city-state, according to an analyst report published today.

On the back of news that up to 10 percent of Singapore households may have already over-leveraged their private property purchases beyond the new 60 percent limit that was recently imposed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), wealth management firm Religare Enterprises has cautioned its clients to avoid investing in Singapore property developers.

http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/property-management-news/2013/7/36279/analyst-9-000-troubled-units-could-be-on-market.

If debt servicing absorbs a third of your income when the rate is x% and the rate rises 50% to 1.5x%, it will absorb a half of your income. You will need a 17% pay rise just to maintain your non-debt spending and a 50% pay rise to return your debt servicing ratio to its previous level.

Think you will get this type of rise?

Taz why MAS is afraid, very afraid*.

(BTW, the MAS concern is a tight slap to the nation-building, constructive ST because on 3 July 2013, ST spun a rose tinted tale on a worrying statistic)

SINGAPORE households are among the most indebted in Asia relative to what they earn, according to a Standard Chartered report this week

Households had borrowings worth 151 per cent of their annual income last year, second in the region only to Malaysia, with debt at 182 per cent of income.

This is mainly because consumers here take on large dollops of property debt, amounting to 111 per cent of household income – the highest level in the region, Stanchart said.

On the bright side, households have a robust buffer of financial assets from high savings, so their debt levels are relatively low compared to these assets, the bank added.

“We are not concerned about household solvency in Singapore,” it said.

Thanks to low interest rates, the repayments that Singapore households make on loans are also among the lowest in the region as a share of income.

However, Stanchart warned that as rates rise, debt servicing may become more difficult for home owners who are over-leveraged, although current debt burdens are still manageable.

http://www.cpf.gov.sg/imsavvy/infohub_article.asp?readid={617222427-18073-5858065485} BT, gave a more sober reading of the same report http://www.cpf.gov.sg/imsavvy/infohub_article.asp?readid={617243129-18067-663266181})

Coming back to reality from STLand, StanChart is not the only one arguing that financial assets buffer S’poreans against over-leverage. While, rising household debt is a concern, it should also be viewed in context with the asset side of the balance sheet. If needed, they [borrowers] could draw down on deposits,” said Michael Wan, economist at Credit Suisse. http://www.cnbc.com/id/100882025

I suspect they are wrong for two reasons.

S’poreans may have financial assets, but some may have very tiny discretionary income to rely on for emergencies such as increasing mortgage payments. ST reported MAS as saying, One couple with a total monthly income of $6,000 were granted a new home loan of $400,000 on top of their existing debt, as they had a savings deposit of $90,000. But their total monthly loan repayments came to more than 90 per cent of their income. http://www.cpf.gov.sg/imsavvy/infohub_article.asp?readid={568402008-18352-5608736872}

That $90,000 will be smashed peanuts if the equity in their property turns negative or juz drops, and the bank asks them to top-up. And what happens if, in addition, they have to pay higher rates of interest on their debts? As I wrote above, if debt servicing absorbs a third of your income when the rate is x% and the rate rises 50% to 1.5x%, it will absorb a half of your income. You will need a 17% pay rise just to maintain your non-debt spending and a 50% pay rise to return your debt servicing ratio to its previous level.

Then too, financial assets unless they are bank deposits can depreciate too as interest rates rise (example bonds, or structured products predicated on low interest rates). And if the deposits are in foreign currencies, these currencies may lose value against the S$.

The only financial assets that matter then are S$ deposits, which brings us to Moody’s comments on the local banking scene. While Moody’s is concerned. I wouldn’t pay much attention to Moody’s concerns over the banking sector. Credit agencies are now overcompensating for being super bullish over US sub-prime and bank ratings. Netizens, especially TRE posters should think ST, when they “rate” credit agencies’ BS remarks.

S’pore’ banks are among the safest in the world. In fact too safe, for investors, I”ve argued http://atans1.wordpress.com/2011/06/30/ocbc-look-after-yr-shareholders-not-yr-creditors-or-regulators/. FTR, I have Haw Par shares which owns shares in UOB http://atans1.wordpress.com/2011/09/05/haw-par-rediscovered-yet-again/

To end, let me repeat, “If debt servicing absorbs a third of your income when the rate is x% and the rate rises 50% to 1.5x%, it will absorb a half of your income. You will need a 17% pay rise just to maintain your non-debt spending and a 50% pay rise to return your debt servicing ratio to its previous level.”

Can get this kind of rise, or not?

Why I’m not selling my Reits yet

In Financial competency, Property, Reits on 08/07/2013 at 5:14 am

I’ve been long Reits since 2008.

Despite the recent turbulence, I’m still not a seller because the global economy (and S’pore’s) faces four potential outcomes: a return to healthy growth (in which case Reit incomes should rise); a low-growth, low-inflation period in the doldrums (in which case the income appeal of Reits should help); a return of rapid inflation (as a real asset, property should offer some protection and Reits offer property and leverage); or a deflationary slump. Only in the last case would property suffer. Three-out-of-four sounds good odd for any racing man. And the last in S’pore is impossible to imagine. Easier to imagine a S’pore where the PAP doesn’t form the govt.

As to whether I’m a buyer http://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/05/21/s-reits-why-stay-away/. Look at dividend yielding stocks.

BTW, since http://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/05/28/bad-timing-st-article-on-reits/, I’ve been told the Reits index is down about 14%.

BTW2: Still looking at Comfort Delgro. http://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/06/17/when-raising-fares-sbs-smrt-govt-dont-have-this-problem/ explains why it looks interesting.

ST’s bearish on reits! Time to buy?

In Financial competency, Property, Reits on 10/06/2013 at 5:08 am

Fee-fi-fo-fum; I smell the blood of reporters and analysts that were bullish on reits. Be they alive or be they dead, I’ll grind their bones to make my bread.

ST has finally given up promoting reits (something I’ve been bitching about recently here and here), reporting: MAYBANK Kim Eng Research has gone against the long-prevailing view and downgraded Singapore’s red-hot real estate investment trust (Reit) sector amid a period of increasing price volatility.

Reits have come under heavy selling pressure the past fortnight amid fears the golden days of low interest rates may be ending.

The FTSE ST Reit Index, which tracks the sector, dropped 1.68 per cent yesterday and is down 8.2 per cent since May 22, when the United States Federal Reserve’s chairman raised the possibility of ending its money-printing.

http://www.cpf.gov.sg/imsavvy/infohub_article.asp?readid={309678777-17695-45587420}

Gee, less than a month and two bullish stories, ST is now reporting bearish news on reits. Even when I waz an equities salesman, I didn’t change my views so fast. ST Money Desk practicing to be salespersons.

But before rushing into reits, think. The prices of reits were helped by institutional equity investors* buying them for the yield. Now those who chased yields in the equity markets may switch into cyclicals and defensives, if they think the yield party is over. If so buying into reits may face a stampede out of reits, and then relative underperformance.

*Remember, bond investors don’t buy reits. They stick to bonds, moving to junkier bonds for yield. When cautious, they sell the junk and buy US govt bonds.

Time for ST to stop promoting Reits

In Financial competency, Property, Reits on 03/06/2013 at 5:53 pm

Opps ST nearly did it again. On Saturday, an ST headline screamed: “Buying opportunity after Reits rout”. http://www.cpf.gov.sg/imsavvy/infohub_article.asp?readid={498059457-17610-6138972043}. Market overall was off 24.6 points (0.74%), while the reits’ index was off a marginal 1.1 point.

Could have been worse. The last time ST promoted reits, ““It was no different in Singapore, where the benchmark Straits Times Index sank 61.2 points or 1.8 per cent to 3,393.17, its worst one-day plunge in percentage terms since its 2.2 per cent reverse on May 7 last year” (“Markets tumble amid US, China fears”: ST headline. Didn’t have the balls to tell us, reits here were off about 5%”http://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/05/28/bad-timing-st-article-on-reits/

On a more serious note, ST shld not be promoting reits. True the yields are better than most plays, but reits are leveraged plays. Now is not the time to be bullish on reits.: http://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/05/21/s-reits-why-stay-away/

I’m still long but I got in in 2008 and 2010. I’ve been riding the run and collecting the payouts to pay for my expenses.

 

Bad timing! ST article on Reits/ Will mkts continue rising?

In Financial competency, Humour, Property, Reits on 28/05/2013 at 5:29 am

On 22 May ST screamed “Reits look like good bets to yield-hungry investors”

The opening para read “SINGAPORE real estate investment trusts (Reits) are among the hottest assets in town to own”.

http://www.cpf.gov.sg/imsavvy/infohub_article.asp?readid={332593593-17481-7717667817}

On 23 May, Japan’s stock market fell by about 7%. “It was no different in Singapore, where the benchmark Straits Times Index sank 61.2 points or 1.8 per cent to 3,393.17, its worst one-day plunge in percentage terms since its 2.2 per cent reverse on May 7 last year” (“Markets tumble amid US, China fears”: ST headline. Didn’t have the balls to tell us, reits here were off about 5%*. They have since recovered slightly.

Fee-fi-fo-fum; I smell the blood of reporters and analysts. Be they alive or be they dead, I’ll grind their bones to make my bread.

For what’s it’s worth, I repeat my take first expressed here http://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/05/21/s-reits-why-stay-away/. But I’m not selling, yet, juz collecting the distributions, and watching to sell.

Update after first publishing: Juz read in FT that while the Topix index is down 10%, reits there down 1%. Seems investors want to own real assets, given that Japan wants to raise inflation.

Update, Update: However, there are three good reasons why stock markets, a few blips aside, will continue to grow for some time: central banks are scared; there is lots of money waiting to be invested; and returns on all other assets are low … Strapped to these three rockets, the market can still soar. Of course, Spain could yet go bust or China grind to a halt. There could be a natural disaster, an act of terrorism or war. History tells us a bust is waiting down the track, but while the world economy recovers and governments and central banks maintain their pledge to keep printing money, we should expect prices to rise.
Phillip Inman from Guardian

 

S-Reits: Why stay away

In Property, Reits on 21/05/2013 at 5:33 am

Here are gd reasons not to come into S-Reits or to buy more.:

http://www.fundsupermart.com/main/research/viewHTML.tpl?articleNo=8173

Time to get real on retail Reits, and S-Reits generally?

In Financial competency, Property, Reits on 16/05/2013 at 3:35 pm

Ong Kian Lin, an analyst with Maybank Kim Eng, wrote in a note dated March 22 that the recent S-Reit rally was not due to strong fundamentals but fuelled by inflated asset values from quantitative easing by the US Federal Reserve and ample liquidity.

He noted how retail and office property prices have gone up but rentals have been slow to catch up.

A Colliers International report reflected this divergence. As at the end of the first quarter of 2013, retail property rents in its areas of study have fallen from the previous quarter while capital values went up.

While maintaining a positive outlook for the retail and retail Reit sector, Savills’ Mr Cheong noted signs of trouble in that retail sales figures are trailing growth in areas such as tourist arrivals, population and inflation.

Retail sales fell 2.7 per cent in February. Tourist arrivals last year was 9.1 per cent higher than the year before. The consumer price index rose 3.5 per cent in February from a year ago. Total population growth was 2.5 per cent between 2011 and 2012.

The demand seen in the market right now is due to sentiment still being buoyant, Mr Cheong feels.

“At the moment it’s still rising, but it’s a binary issue. You cannot go and push to the tipping point, you push to the tipping point, everybody will bolt for the door like a fire in a cinema or retail mall. If everyone bolts for the door, everything will be vacated.”

NUS’ Prof Sing said retailers have increasing choices of malls. And the risk is that with greater choice, consumers may drift away from traditionally popular malls, leading to a downward spiral.

“When this happens, tenants will also start to move out. This cycle will continue, because you (as a manager) cannot pull in the crowd, I (as a retailer) cannot afford to pay such a high rent, I have to move out from the mall. So you put in another tenant that is not as good, so fewer people will come.”

Prof Sing and Knight Frank’s Mr Png said they are watching the Jurong East area, with several commercial and retail developments due for completion.

Retailers also have to cope with tighter foreign manpower policies.

“Much as the government would like to talk about productivity you find that retailers, the services business, is still very labour intensive,” Mr Png said.

http://www.cpf.gov.sg/imsavvy/infohub_article.asp?readid={4798875-17374-4688516258}

Err the issue of inability to raise income could also apply across the board to office and industrial reits too, given the economic slow down. Price rises can only depend on yields going down. FTR, I own various Reits.

DBS still loves Reits

In Property, Reits on 02/05/2013 at 5:24 am

It prefers those with stronger earnings growth potential and/or have potential to deliver earnings surprises. Preferred S-Reits are Perennial China Retail Trust (PCRT), MGCCT and Cambridge Industrial Trust based on their upside potential.

PCRT is seen as attractive due to its valuations and earnings visibility as operations are ramping up at its malls. New development assets are also completed and seen generating cashflow. Target price is around $0.84.

MGCCT offers investors “an attractive opportunity to own iconic, best-of-breed commercial assets”. The trust has resilient cashflow with strong organic growth drivers. The target price at $1.18.

As for Cambridge, its completed acquisitions and asset enhancement initiatives (AEIs) are expected to contribute positively. Its target price is seen around $0.93. I personally am not comfortable with Cambridge because it lacks a tai kor.

It advises investors who benefited from price gains in Mapletree Industrial Trust, AReit, Suntec Reit and Parkway Life Reit shares, to consider selling these.

Property: Tharman is wrong that measures are working?

In Property on 19/04/2013 at 6:45 am

Colin Tan has a regular column on Friday in Today. Unlike the other property “experts” that appear in the local media, his take is always slightly different from the govt spin. Take this week’s http://www.todayonline.com/business/property/cooling-measures-or-market-booster

Based on the new private home sales data for March, the seventh round of the Government’s property market cooling measures must definitely qualify as an own goal, as a colleague put it. Instead of cooling the market, the latest curbs unveiled in January actually boosted it as buyers turned up in droves.

Tharman was quoted by today’s ST as saying: “Property prices remain high but they are moving in the right direction”, and that govt had no plans for additional measures.

I’m sure prices will soar now that buyers know no more curbs coming.

 

S-Reits remain “betterst’ in region

In Property, Reits on 07/03/2013 at 10:31 am

S-Reits delivered the region’s highest dividend yield as at the end of last month, the latest month-end Asia Index Report produced by the FTSE Group has noted.

The FTSE ST Reit Index and the FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Singapore Reits Index ranked highest in terms of dividend yield and lowest in terms of volatility, relative to their regional counterparts.

.

$100 chicken if food tracked house prices?

In Property on 13/02/2013 at 7:16 am

Reading the u/m, got me doing some very simplistic calculations on the back of an envelope, and using some very simplistic assumptions, it would be plausible and reasonable to argue that  a chicken here would cost at least $100 if its price kept pace with the rise of the cost of a three-room HDB flat since the early 1970s.Maybe Coyote Chee’s economists could do a study? No point asking s/o JBJ. He now trying to be half-past six lawyer like dad, wanting to argue in person that the govt breached the constitution in funding the IMF.

If the price of food had risen as quickly as the price of houses over the last 40 years, we would now be paying more than £50 for a single chicken, according to the housing charity Shelter.

The charity says that since the early 1970s, house prices have risen far faster than grocery bills.

In 1971 an average home in Britain cost less than £6,000.

Forty years on, it had shot up to £245,000. BBC article

 

When ST headline is bullish, time to sell?

In Financial competency, Property, Reits on 11/02/2013 at 9:33 am

In SunT, the headline screamed,”Market risks ‘seem less threatening this year’”. Oh, dear. If ST reporters and editors are getting less cautious, isn’t this a contrarian sign. Maybe? But to be fair the forecast was made by a UOB Asset Management executive.

So far, as well documented here, I’ve been emphasising buying stocks with sustainable dividends or payouts, decent yields (slightly above our 5% inflation rate), with the possibility of capital appreciation. I’ve been long on smaller cap S-Reits that have tai-kors with money for several yrs. I’m not a buyer at these levels, but neither am I a seller. I’m a nervous holder. Until you cash out, the profits can evaporate. Taz why good, sustainable yields are important. But that means taking on more risk: Reits are not a play safe investment. Their gearing and the requirement to pay out 90% of their earnings, could result in investors coughing up in rights issue more than they got in payouts. Taz the reason for my nervousness.

Stocks on my watch list are SBS and SMRT. But they’ve been on my to buy watch list for three years already.

 

 

 

S-Reits: Gd analysis

In Property, Reits on 06/02/2013 at 6:21 am

The reason for the highest yield spread for SReits against other markets is due to the proportion of industrial, healthcare or emerging market REITs within the index.

In the case for Singaporean industrial properties, these are leasehold interests so the yield profile against Japanese assets is always going to be higher. Did’nt know that abt Jap assets

Hotels, Indonesian/Indian healthcare/retail properties trade at higher yields than office & retail properties.

So basically although the SReit index trades above its peers – there is a reason for it! And should not imply that SReits are cheap.

A reader made this comment on http://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/01/10/s-reits-cheong-all-the-way-says-ocbc-sec/

Book PM could cite in validation of “Growth, ‘cheong’ all the way”

In Economy, Humour, Political economy, Political governance, Property on 01/02/2013 at 7:37 am

In “Planet of Cities”, by Shlomo Angel*, a professor of urban planning at New York University, argues that cities must prepare themselves for rapid growth, citing New York and Barcelona: In the 19th century both cities decided to prepare themselves for rapid growth. In 1811 New York’s city council approved a plan which allowed all of Manhattan to be built up and included the island’s now famous street grid. In 1859 Barcelona followed suit with a similar concept to expand the city nine-fold.

Err PM not planning to increase the population that much.

And on why working-age population matters:

http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2013/01/demography-0

Netizens, pls realise that the intellectual underpinnings are there for the White Paper. It’s the conventional wisdom. Raving, ranting and screaming will do no good.

Nothing will, not even the ballot box: “A vote for the WP is a vote for the continuance of PAP policies” says WP Low. So lie back and enjoy being raped. Think of the value of your property when you cash out and move on overseas.

Reputations: Be mean & laugh

In Humour, Political governance, Property on 16/01/2013 at 5:30 am

Here’s an intermission from the antics of Mad Dog (or is it Coyote?) Chee and the S’pore Indian Party as the SDP should be renamed: I mean with both potential candidates being Indians of great credentials (I know Dr PaulA and have a lot of respect for him) and from privileged backgrounds*,  in a predominantly Cina area, what was the SDP SIP thinking? The PAP fields a poor Teochew boy made good, and rumour has it that Low was looking around for another Teochew lang. Unfortunately after Staggy Yaw, none in WP are suitable. Chee and gang must be idealistic mad dogs if they believe that race doesn’t matter in S’pore. It does unless the hegemon decides otherwise.

As to the withdrawal, I’ll blog on it after thinking about what Morocco Mole and Secret Squirrel told me. Anyway I had analysed that the SDP wanted some goodies and that WP should agree: http://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/01/13/when-mad-dog-meets-tua-kees/

Here’s my “Tak boleh Tahan” riposte to various things I’ve read, in the last few days, on the internet. You you find them as entertaining as the Mad Dog’s antics. Or is he a coyote?

Law prof’s “academic integrity”

When prof Tey Tsun Hang  was charged for corruption in that he persuaded his student to pleasure him in return forgiving her better grades, he proclaimed loudly his “academic integrity”. I tot he was going to defend himself by saying that “I didn’t screw her”: all first-world academic codes of conduct frown on professors screwing their students. Well, we now know that his definition of “academic integrity” excludes sex with students. Bit like Bill Clinton’s definition of sex: it excluded a certain action between gal’s mouth and his organ.

And as to his alleged persecution because he criticised the judiciary (http://www.tremeritus.com/2013/01/11/sex-charge-an-academic-persecution-of-law-professor/), so it’s OK for a professor to have sex with his student, so long as he criticises S’pore judges. ERr what about minors?

BTW, if Alex Au had posted this link, I’m sure his friend, the AG, would have written to him that the piece was in contempt of the judiciary. But as it appeared in TRE, the voice of the masses, one can only speculate that the AG doesn’t want to soil his hands http://atans1.wordpress.com/2011/12/11/why-i-miss-tr/. Or AG doesn’t believe that TRE carries any cred with reasonable, thinking S’poreans, it “is a bearer of rumours, rubbish and nonsense”. Or that it will soon close down because “TRE readers are losers, houseflies and maggot’s young”, who are not willing to keep the site going by donating money. http://www.tremeritus.com/2013/01/15/tr-emeritus-a-bearer-of-rumours-rubbish-and-nonsense/

Jos talks cock again

From CNA:

Singapore can possibly take a leaf out from other jurisdictions to look at how they curb rising property prices. Member of Parliament for Holland-Bukit Timah GRC, Christopher De Souza, said this includes learning from Hong Kong and Australia … he prefers the Australian model. He said: “What the Australian model does is prevent foreigners from buying anything except new developments in Australia, and then hold on to that and eventually if they want to sell, to sell only to an Australian citizen.

“This allows the local population to set a correct pricing mechanism, which I feel is a good alternative for Singapore.”

Minister of State for Finance Josephine Teo said Singapore already has such restrictions on the entire HDB market and executive condominiums.

Currently, foreigners are not allowed to buy HDB flats and they are also barred from buying units in executive condominium developments that are less than 10 years old.

Hello Jos: What about the restriction that can only be sold to citizens? Not here is it. If she doesn’t ak PAP MP, thinbk she will listen to what Opposition MPs are saying?

Related post: http://atans1.wordpress.com/2012/10/26/jos-too-is-talking-cock/

Will Mrs change mind?

‘After saying for days that he was seriously considering contesting the single seat ward of Punggol East, Reform Party chief Kenneth Jeyaretnam has now said he is “90 per cent likely to go ahead”.’ (ST a few days ago): yesterday he said he was running.

There are allegations that his wife wears the pants in that household, and that she was finally persuaded that he should run.

Will she change her mind, now that SDP has withdrawn? Her heloo will be whipped by Ah Lian.

Ong Yee Kung is soiled

This ST reporter speculated that Ong was not PAP’s candidate in PE because he was part of the losing team in Aljunied http://www.singapolitics.sg/views/why-was-it-not-ong-ye-kung. Err ever tot that his roles in SMRT and NTUC, coupled with local drivers’ unhappiness and the strike by FT drivers made him toxic. Meritocracy? What meritocracy? http://atans1.wordpress.com/2012/12/10/meritocracys-feet-of-clay-ong-ye-kung/

SDP doing shumething right?

And finally coming back to Chee. SIP SDP must be doing shumething righr to warrant this bitch from ST journalist. Maybe the Dark Side was worried that the Jedi SDP will expose the weakness of the PAP clones? That the WP needs the SDP to provide the base for the clones to reach out to the moderate sheep.

http://www.singapolitics.sg/views/sdps-win-win-win-strategy-lose-lose

Sadly, we won’t know if this thesis is correct.

BTW reading these two pieces by two ST ladies, it is reasonable to speculate if ST’s newsroom is now the in-place for S’pore’s airheads, now that SIA has raised the education qualifications for its waitresses in the sky. Not that the ST ladies would have qualified on the looks front. Even Auntie Sylvia looks better. But then she’s now got $15,000 a month pin money to spend on clothes and accessories, like Kate Spade Tin. Happy shopping gals.

—-

*Heard a story that SDP was finding it difficult to choose because both of them want to defer to the other. Smart boys, if story is true. Losing to Ah Lian is bad for the reputation of any smart man.

S-Reits: “Cheong all the way” says OCBC Sec

In Property, Reits on 10/01/2013 at 7:41 am

Especially industrial Reits ’cause of the 7% yields.

“Looking into 2013, we believe S-REITs would likely retain their shine, underpinned by three key drivers. First, the sector offers the highest yield spreads among its peers in other major markets. Second, S-REITs are likely to be in favour amid the uncertain macroeconomic outlook, given their defensive low beta nature. Lastly, the outlook and financial position of S-REITs are generally positive, which should translate to firm performances going forward.”

S’pore Biz Review

I wouldn’t be a seller, but I sure am not going to add to my exposure to Lippo-M, AIMSAMP or Fraser Commercial, or to buy any other reit. But watching like a hawk to find a reason to sell.

Stock ideas for M’sia and Indonesia

In Indonesia, Malaysia, Property on 13/10/2012 at 9:24 am

Playing the property game

http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmarketsdaily/2012/10/08/fund-managers-finding-opportunities-in-emerging-market-real-estate-plays-including-cement/?mod=BOLBlog?mod=BOL_article_full_blog_em

FCT, Suntec: Cheong all the way say brokers

In Property, Reits on 11/10/2012 at 6:00 pm

OCBC Investment Research raised its fair value on Frasers Commercial Trust (FCT) to S$1.31 from S$1.23 while maintaining its “Buy” call. The interest savings arising from the early refinancing of a S$500 million loan facility and stronger rental income after the acquisition of direct tenant leases at China Square Central are also positives, OCBC Investment said. And after selling KeyPoint for S$360 million (US$292.7 million), FCT is likely to sit on net proceeds of S$357.8 million and book in a gain of S$72.8 million. Frasers is likely to use the bulk of the sale proceeds to redeem half of its series A convertible perpetual preferred units and reduce its existing debt, OCBC said.

DBS Vickers says, “We continue to like FCT due to its stable income profile and the positive impact coming in from its management execution, as evident in Causeway Point’s enhancement strategy. Thirdly, given that it’s trading above book, we see opportunities of inorganic growth.” What the last means is that FCT can issue new units to acquire properties. 

Then there is Suntec REIT, with DBS Vickers citing its attractive yield and the positive earnings impact in the medium term from its asset enhancement initiatives.

Maybank Kim Eng, which earlier this week upgraded its rating on the REIT to “Buy” from “Hold”, while increasing its target price to S$1.66 from S$1.42, agrees citing as positives the progress of refurbishment work at Suntec Mall and Convention Centre and the near complete occupancy of its office portfolio against the negative of  a looming supply glut.

FYI1, AIMS AMP Capital Industrial Reit portfolio value has risen by 5.6 per cent, said the Reit on Tuesday. Based on the new valuation made on September 30, 2012, the Reit’s portfolio is now valued at S$965.7 million. Its previous valuation was on March 31, 2012.

FYI2,Bloomberg reported last month that the local REIT market has led the global league table so far this year, returning an average 37 per cent. That is twice the gains in the United States, United Kingdom and Japan, according to Bloomberg data, and better than Australia, which advanced 24 per cent.

A natural topic for national conversation

In Political economy, Property on 11/10/2012 at 5:49 am

An article in SunT ST last week on farming on the rooftops of HK reminded me that I had written in My S’pore: A greener & more pleasant land about using the roofs of our HDB blocks and other high-rise buildings to create a greener S’pore using examples from Switzerland. I also added, “This being S’pore, we could use HDB roof-tops to be self-sufficient in basic veggies, and range-free eggs.”

Well not only are the Hongkies now farming on the top of high rises, but I have since learnt that the Americans were already doing it for some yrs now: The idea to grow more food within city limits has spread in recent years along with increased awareness about the quality of our food and where it comes from. Advocates say urban farms can also provide important green-space and, when built on roofs, help reduce energy use and storm-water runoff. In dense cities like New York, with high real estate prices, rooftops represent enticing, unused space. Several cities, including New York and Seattle have revised zoning and building codes to help encourage the practice.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/19/us-farms-urban-idUSBRE86I0U120120719?type=smallBusinessNews

Maybe Khaw can get his planners to see if leasing out the roofs of HDB blocks to wannabe farmers can help lower the cost of the HDB flats to S’poreans?

And this is a natural topic for our National Conversation (Ya silly pun, I accept). It is a non-political topic of conversation for the S’pore of 2030.

Only SDP and NSP activists, Ravi the lawyer, KennethJ, Goh Meng Seng and TJS will strain out gnats to find a political angle to this issue. LOL.

Related link: Parks along abandoned railway tracks in the sky (NY) and on the ground (England)  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-19872874

Bearish news for First Reit?

In Indonesia, Property, Reits on 31/08/2012 at 9:59 am

Background info

Lippo Karawacial is First Reit’s financial sponsor: “On 11 December 2006, Lippo Karawaci became the first company in South East Asia to list a Healthcare REIT on the Singapore Stock Exchange with Indonesian assets. Assets in the First REIT includes the Siloam Hospitals Lippo Village, Siloam Hospitals Kebon Jeruk, Siloam Hospitals Surabaya, Siloam Hospital Cikarang, Mochtar Riady Comperhensive Center and The Aryaduta Hotel and Country Club Karawaci, and four Singapore based properties.”

http://atans1.wordpress.com/2012/07/20/first-reit-nav-revision-bonus/

Now the bearish news

One of the sources told Reuters that first-round bids were below expectations, but the sale process will continue to give the buyers an opportunity to bid higher. It wasn’t clear how much the bidders had offered for the stake in the first round.

 Blackstone, Bain Capital, KKR & Co and Dubai’s Abraaj Capital have been shortlisted for the second phase of an auction of a fifth of private Indonesian healthcare operator Siloam in a deal that could fetch as much as $300 million, sources said.

Seller PT Lippo Karawaci is seeking a valuation of more than 20 times Siloam’s forward core earnings for the stake, they said, declining to be named as the discussions were private. Siloam is the country’s biggest private hospital firm.

“Lippo may be back in the market next year if the valuation disparity is too big,” said one of the sources.

Lippo plans to sell a minimum 20 percent of unit Siloam Hospitals for between $200 million and $300 million, but could increase the stake to 49 percent if the price is right. It hired Bank of America Merrill Lynch to run the auction, sources have told Reuters earlier.

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2012/08/27/business/27reuters-lippo-privateequity.html?_r=1&src=busln&nl=business&emc=edit_dlbkam_20120827

So there may be no revision of First Reit’s NAV http://atans1.wordpress.com/2012/07/20/first-reit-nav-revision-bonus/

Might even be revised downwards. But Global buyout firms are keen on Indonesia’s consumer and healthcare sectors despite steep valuations, as they are betting on the country’s fast-growing economy.

Indonesia has one of the world’s lowest healthcare spending-to-GDP ratios, but its rising middle class – which represents more than half of its population of 240 million – is expected to sharply increase its medical spending and drive growth in the sector over the coming years.

“The healthcare sector still continues to remain the darling of private equity. Even with rich valuations it is easy to find bidders for this sector,” said Krishna Ramachandra, head of corporate finance and investment funds at law firm Duane Morris & Selvam LLP.

But a growing number of investment banks are advising clients that south-east Asian rivals such as Malaysia and Thailand now look more enticing than Indonesia. Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse say the Indon economy is overheating. Barclays is relaxed abt the “problems”.

Questioning the conventional wisdom on 50-yr loans

In Financial competency, Financial planning, Humour, Property on 17/08/2012 at 5:23 am

When netizens like Ryan Ong and the readers of TRE, the government, and the constructive, nation-building media agree that 50-yr mortgages are bad for the borrowers and S’pore, I had no alternative but to think about the issue. Surely, they can’t all be right. A waste of my time as I’m unlikely ever to want, or to get approved for such a loan: I’m past 55. But then, I got plenty of time.

Let’s start with the most blindly obvious fact. The very long period, more than half the average life span of a S’porean*.

– “Borrowers could easily get stuck … if the market crashes”. This was written by an apprentice of the Dark Side (which confusingly in the context of S’pore belongs to the the Men in White) in yesterday’s ST.

– Or that interest rates can go up beyond our wildest imaginations. Well according to the government, a 30-yr mortgage on a 99-yr lease is “affordable”. So waz another 20 yrs?

– Anything can happen (PAP loses power and Gerald Giam leader of WP becomes PM?).

Seriously, the deified Lord Keynes said the only reasonable response to the question “What will interest rates be in 20 years’ time?” is “We simply do not know”. And he was talking only about 20 yrs. The point I’m trying to make is that even the 20-yr standard mortgage is problematic and risky. So don’t over exaggerate the risk for 50-yr mortgages, when 20-yr mortgages are already risky.

(BTW, roughly 20 yrs after Keynes made that remark that, Britain was fighting the Third Reich: it was losing. Any intelligent nation would have surrendered. After all, the Fourth Reich rules the Eurozone on which Britain depends for its propsperity.)

Next, we are told that the interest payments are “humongous”. True. But has anyone done the sums to see if someone had bot a bungalow in the mid-1950s on a 50-yr mortgage (didn’t exist then: in fact mortgages were for very short periods only, and only available to rich people), would he or she have made money in the mid-2000s? Would the cost of repayments be worth it? I think, we know the answer. http://atans1.wordpress.com/2012/01/08/what-grace-fu-cant-afford/

I’m not saying that history will repeat itself. We are unlikely to have a competent PAP government bullying ruling us for another 50 yrs (And the PAP stated getting incompetent 21 yrs ago). And anyway, men like Dr Goh Keng Swee are  dead, or retired like Ngiam Tong Dow and one LKY.

What about nothing left in the CPF account for old age? Seriously, does anyone think that the cash put aside in the account will be worth much?

What I’m not saying is that a 50-yr mortgage is good for borrowers, or S’pore. What I’m saying it that it’s juz the logical extension of a 20 or 30-yr mortgage. Its cons are equally applicable to a 20 or 30 yr mortgage. Does anyone who takes out these mortgages expect to continue financing the mortgage for said period? No, the plan always is to refinance on better terms a few yrs after taking out the mortgage. Same for 50-yr one too. The interest rate and other risks are similar, juz magnified.

The issue in taking out a mortgage is not affordibility but one’s risk profile, reasonably and rationally considered. But thinking rationall and reasonably is not easy.

Interesting post: Some useful number crunching http://www.investinpassiveincome.com/further-comments-on-the-50-year-loan/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+InvestingInPassiveIncomeAssets+%28Investing+In+Passive+Income+Assets%29

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*82.2 for a male S’porean and 85.6 for a female.

Far East Reit refuses to increase yield

In Property, Reits, Uncategorized on 06/08/2012 at 6:30 am

Here I prophesised that Far East Reit would be forced to increase the expected yield on its trust from a niggardly 6-6.5%.

Well Morocco Mole (sidekick to Secret Squirrel) tells me that the Reit, which owns hotels and serviced residences in Singapore has not changed its pricing, despite CDL’s yield of 6ish% and Ascendas Hos of almost 8%.

So don’t subscribe if you are hoping for a pop in the price on listing day. CDL looks a better yield play. Got public track record.

Related post: http://atans1.wordpress.com/2012/07/30/ascendas-hospitality-trust-surprises/

Ascendas Hospitality Trust surprises

In Property, Reits on 30/07/2012 at 6:31 am

Ascendas Hospitality Trust (A-HTrust) closed at its issue price last Friday. Considering that the public offer was about 6.9 times subscribed and yields projected at 7.9% (FY13) and 8.0% (FY14), while CDL’s is 6% (admittedly that is trailing) and strong demand for the placement, I expected the securities to close higher.

Maybe it’s the structure? The A-HTrust is a ‘stapled security’ comprising the Ascendas Hospitality Business Trust (80%) and the Ascendas Hospitality Real Estate Investment Trust (20%).

Mr Tan Juay Hiang, chief executive, Ascendas Hospitality Trust, said earlier last week: “The REIT structure does allow unit holders and investors to enjoy a more tax efficient structure. And the business trust will allow the platform to look at the potential development projects, unlike the REIT there is a limitation. So on a staple securities basis, it does provide quite a fair bit of benefits for unit holders and investors.”

Maybe it’s  because the trust said it’s looking at acquisitions to grow the value of its assets going forward. Rights issueS, more debt?

Maybe because as analysts said there are downside risks to hospitality trusts as the tourism market is highly sensitive to global downturns. Projections could go wrong.

Maybe it shouldn’t have allotted an additional 73.4 million securities to the placement tranche of its initial public offering in Singapore as part of its overallotment process?

Update on 31 July: Another reason could be that the assets are outside S’pore and investors place a premium on S’pore based assets. The reverse of the govt’s “FTs are betterest” policy.

Anyway, means the coming Far East Reit got to redo its sums again about being cheapskate http://atans1.wordpress.com/2012/07/24/far-east-reit-cheapskate/

Keep an eye on A-HTrust. Could be worth adding to portfolio for yield and capital appreciation. I like the combi of biz trust and Reit, though not sure if it will work in practice. Got to research the issue.

Two S’pore buy-outs in trouble?

In Property on 26/07/2012 at 12:44 pm

Buy-out companies are tapping non-traditional funding avenues to overcome difficult IPO and bank loans markets? TPG Capital, which has around US$52bn in assets under management globally, is considering an expensive high-yield bond for precision engineering firm United Test & Assembly Centre. TPG had in June 2011 looked at an S$500m IPO.

KKR, which has around US$62bn in assets under management globally, became the first private equity fund to use a high-yield bond to refinance a buyout loan in Asia when it took out a US$300m  five-year bond for Singapore technology company MMI International, in February this yr. KKR had in March 2011 looked at an IPO exit for MMI worth S$1bn (then US$785.7m).

In April, it spun that it was planning an IPO for MMI worth  raise between US$400m to US$500m. The IPO was expected to take place in the third quarter. More.

Given market conditions, not likely.

Far East Reit: Cheapskate

In Property, Reits on 24/07/2012 at 7:50 am

Far East Reit which owns hotels and serviced residences in Singapore, is being marketed at a yield of 6-6.5% Compares unfavourably about 7.9% offered for Ascendas Hospitality Trust (at issue price: expect it to fall to 6ish level when trading starts i.e. price moves up) and 6% for CDL Hospitality Trust

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/20/us-fareast-reit-ipo-idUSBRE86J04L20120720

Bet you the yield will have to be improved (giving room for some capital gains) for the institutions.

FCOT: Great insight!

In Property, Reits on 29/06/2012 at 6:31 am

“FCOT sold a S$10 mil yielding KeyPoint for S$360 mil and bought a S$10 mil yielding Caroline for S$113 mil!”

http://www.investmentmoats.com/money-management/reit/frasers-commercial-trusta-reit-worth-looking-out-for/

Effectively it’s get the same yield but reducing the capital used by 31%, releasing the balance of 69% for hopefully more proftable use. Great financial engineering. F&N’s chairman should tell his sis-in-law at Temasek to pay F&N and FCOT to teach Temasek financial engineering.

And great insight by Investment Moats: worthy of a Buffett.

Bad PR by FCOT. It should enhance shareholder value be publicising its financial egineering skills.

Though must point out that the returns in Caroline’s case are in A$. Nevertheless …

But given that FCOT was gifted the Alexandra Technopark by F&N when F&N was trying to salvage its investment in FCOT during the financial crisis, there’s a danger that FCOT may have to return the favour. I was surprised that F&N shareholders did not kick up a fuss as the valuation then looked rather low, even taking into account the crisis. But then the property is “peanuts’ in relation to F&N’s assets. So there’s a gd chance that F&N would not ask FCOT for a favour.

As to the best use of the Keypoint money, redeem the convertibles in full: increasing leverage. Rely on F&N’s balance sheet: maybe pay it a fee for “renting”. Worst case: rights issue again. But then I’m a bit of a gambler (like the cowboys and cowgals at Temasek), even if I invest in Reits for the yield. Some habits die hard.

Katong property more valuable than Hawaiian island

In Property, Uncategorized on 21/06/2012 at 7:17 pm

So the the Katong home of the late Liem Sioe Liong, one of Indonesia’s richest men, is valued at approximately S$100 million, according to a report in Indonesia’s TEMPO Interactive. The property is 86,000 sq ft.

It was reported yesterday that the billionaire boss of technology giant Oracle is to buy 98% of the Hawaiian island of Lanai. Larry Ellison’s successful bid is unknown, but the asking price for the 141 sq mile (365 sq km) was said to be between US$500m and $600m http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-18529739.

Reminded me that in the late 1980s, the grounds of the Imperial Palace in downtown Tokyo was said to be worth all the land in California. Australia sold part of the land its embassy was on and paid off half of its foreign debt.

Cambridge Reit

In Property, Reits on 06/06/2012 at 1:59 pm

Almost no coverage from analysts, so this might interest http://sreit.reitdata.com/2012/05/25/cambridge-dmg-4/

The yield is great, the gearing levels are ok but the lack of a big, conservative brother scares me. In times like this, need a big, stodgy brother like F&N, Keppel, or AMP; or effectively zero gearing (Lippo trusts). I consider CapitaLand too racy for me despite it’s a TLC.

Saizen Reit

In Japan, Property, Reits on 06/06/2012 at 1:28 pm

 This article (“Residential properties have been the most popular among investors based on its stable return,” said Ishinabe. “Since last year, investors have expanded their interest into other types of properties such as office buildings and commercial facilities.”) on two bulls in Jap commercial property despite supply a’coming reminded me of u’m post on Saizen Reit that tot me the basics of this residental property Jap Reit. 

http://singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.com/2012/05/saizen-reit-to-buy-or-not-to-buy.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+ASingaporeanStockmarketInvestorassi+%28A+Singaporean+Stockmarket+Investor+%28ASSI%29%29

 

Test needed to ask questions at co. meetings

In China, Corporate governance, Financial competency, Humour, Property on 04/06/2012 at 5:01 am

(Or “Shume really stupid shareholders” or “Why SGX shld pay Mano Sabnani to conduct courses on asking sensible qns at AGMs and EGMs”)  

Sometime back, the media reported that some daft shareholders (same people as those who complained at DBS AGM that DBS paid 50% premium over Bank Danamon’s share price to get controlling stake? I mean these people never ever heard of a premium needed to secure a controlling block?) abt CapitaLand’s China exposure and share price since 2008 or 2007 at its AGM.

Don’t they read the int’l media?

Example from BBC Online:”China has, thus far, avoided the much-feared hard landing,” said IHS Global’s Ren Xianfeng.

“Expect no major property meltdown or construction bust. Expect no deflationary spiral or banking crunch.”

Analysts said that given the steadiness of the property market, policymakers were likely to continue to ease their policies to boost growth.

Ting Liu of Bank of America-Merrill Lynch forecast that China’s economy was likely to grow at an annual rate on 8.5% in the second quarter, up from 8.1% in the first three months of the year.

And on the share price: don’t they realise that equity markets have had a choppy ride since 2008. And that China-related stocks have been the target of bear raids and that CapitaLand is an obvious target to short given that the stock is liquid and shares can be easily borrowed

In case anyone doesn’t understand the reference to Mano, he asks vv intelligent questions at AGMs and EGMs. Only one I can bitch abt is at K-Reit EGM when he queried the price paid for Ocean Towers from its parent. Shumething like Ocean Towers seldom gets sold at mkt price, except perhaps in distressed sale. Kanna pay premium.

How times have changed since the late 70s (Moral suasion)

In Corporate governance, Political governance, Property on 01/06/2012 at 6:39 am
Someone wrote in to Voices as follows
 
Property developers countering govt policy
 
The extra stamp duty of 10 per cent was introduced in December to curb excessive foreign investment in private residential property. This cooling measure has failed. New private home sales last month were the strongest in nearly three years.One possible reason is the increasingly common practice by property developers to absorb the extra stamp duty as part of their marketing strategy, visibly offered as a carrot to potential buyers in their advertisements of property launches.If a government policy could be circumvented this easily, then it has lost its effectiveness. The Government should make it illegal for property developers to absorb any stamp duty.
 
In the late 1970s, never mind making it illegal for property developers to absorb any stamp duty: someone would call up the developers offering this deal and tell them that what they were doing was “not in the national interest”, and please scrap the offers. Developers would listen to the polite request to behave responsibly in obeying the spirit of the law rather than the letter of the law because no developer wanted the tax authorities going thru their books if they decided to follow the letter of the law.
 
How times have changed since when I started work. For the better or the worse in this instance, I am uncertain.
 
 

Reits R financial engineering

In Financial competency, Property, Reits on 17/05/2012 at 10:52 am

Reits have a new tool to juice up returns: perpetual securitiesor perps. Could “leverage up” without “debt”. Shld not technically use the word “bonds” even though they are effectively bonds.

http://www.todayonline.com/Business/Property/EDC120504-0000036/Perpetual-bonds–A-boon-to-Singapore-REITs

Could be burps if shumething goes wrong.

The central bank is worried that retail investors may not understand perps*. I’m worried reit managers may be seduced by investment bankers to use perps indiscrimately. Us investors get shafted. So invest in reits where the sponsor is big, stodgy and conservative (like F&N, or AMP), and has a big stake in reit.  If sponsor doesn’t meet the first criteria, think long and hard. I did in case of LMRT, and bot in.

Update: Comments on ST article abt central babk’s stance.

———————————–

*Bankers said MAS officials had voiced their concerns over retail holdings of perpetual bonds during at least two informal meetings in recent weeks.

The central bank’s scrutiny is preliminary and there is no suggestion of any wrongdoing on the part of the banks or companies involved in the recent flurry of perpetual bond issues. But the discussions show that the regulator is worried individual investors may be taking on too much risk without a full understanding of the product.

http://www.todayonline.com/Business/EDC120515-0000049/Perpetual-bond-rush-causes-alarm-in-Spore

MIIF & FCT: Useful updates

In China, Property, Reits on 17/05/2012 at 6:51 am

Never summed up the courage to buy MIIF because although it is a China infrastructure play, yirld is super, and MIIF is net cash, its underlying investments are up to their eyebrows in debt: could affect MIIF’s payouts, NAV and price. But chk out for yrself  http://www.investmentmoats.com/money-management/dividend-investing/amfraser-have-some-seriously-optimistic-cash-flow-projections-for-miif/

For the working stiffs who got cashflow from day jobs. Not for retiree who gambled his cashflow.

 CIMB likes Frasers Commercial Trust I own shume.

Update: DBSV likes FCT too http://sreit.reitdata.com/2012/05/18/fcot-dbsv-3/

Ascendas India: DBS is bullish

In India, Property, Reits on 08/05/2012 at 6:06 pm

http://sreit.reitdata.com/2012/05/02/a-itrust-dbsv/ (Ya I know technically it’s not a Reit, but it looks like one.)

So am I. )))). BTW, the Indian rupee has strengthened after the government said on Monday that it would delay proposed laws targeting tax avoidance by one year.

But five things wrong with the Indian economy.

Gd Reit table

In Property, Reits on 07/05/2012 at 7:06 pm

http://mystocksinvesting.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Singapore-undervalued-REIT-stock-comparison-5-May-2012.png

Thanks to complier.

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