Asean round-up

Global loan growth for HSBC: gd indication of relative economic growth rates. Asean and China is the place to be.

M’sias economic output for the first quarter grew a lower-than-expected 4.1%, dragged down by weak exports.Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had projected a median growth of 5.5%. More headaches for Najib. Well he can tell himself that the problems will not be his to resolve. Badawi must be chuckling to himself. This appeared before the elections http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/specialreports/malaysiadecides/news/najib-should-not-be-forced-to-resign-bad/661854.html

Indonesia’s IPO market is enjoying its busiest fiscal second quarter ever. Indonesian electronics retailer PT Electronic City became the 10th company to commit to selling shares to the public. Electronic City is reportedly planning to sell the equivalent of 25% of the company raising US$150 million in part to help open new stores.

M’sia: stagnating, festering economy ahead

M’sia’s not a gd place to invest in is the conclusion to be drawn from the election results. Najib is likely to be replaced by someone who is less willing to make the nec economic reforms[See Update]. And why should he politically? The status quo benefits UMNO barons, and even a stagnating festering economy can be milked for many yrs to come. Anyway, the vast majority Chinese voters were not satisfied with Najib’s actions and promises, so why take risks.

UMNO (and I agree with this analysis) sees what the Chinese did as taking sides in a Malay civil war between Anwar* and UMNO for the goodies that come with power. Nothing wrong with the Chinese trying to take advantage of this situation to get rid of racial discrimination, but they got to live with the consequences now that Anwar lost.

The consequences will be a stagnating economy, UMNO hostility and having to dance to Anwar’s tune. Note that immediately after the election, Lim Kit Siang said he accepted the results, while Anwar was bitching. Well DAP soon fell in line with Anwar, despite it having more seats in parly than Anwar.

Update: http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21576654-elections-may-could-mark-turning-point-never-ending-policy and two of u/m charts gives some reasons why reforms are needed: PMETs are leaving, workers are not skilled, high govt debt and underperforming. (Note charts from FT were pre 5 May)

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*PAS had to take Anwar’s side because both the religious leaders of PAS and the younger activists (young, Malay PMETS) have a problem with UMNO’s corrupt culture. PAS supports Anwar through gritted teeth. He is not trusted. PAS has more respect for the DAP because it like the PAS hates corruption. The sooner PAS becomes a moderate Muslim party along the lines of the ruling Turkish party, the better for M’sia. The young Muslim professionals in PAS are trying hard to change the party, and thankfully the ruling PAS old guard are old.

Indonesia: Export woes slow economy

Indonesia’s economy grew at 6% in the first three months of the year, its slowest pace in more than two years, as exports slowed.The expansion was slower than the 6.1% reported in the previous quarter, compared to the same period the year before.Last week, the statistics bureau said exports had fallen the most in seven months in March.Analysts said the declining expectation of the global recovery led to a further weakening of global commodity prices.

Its government has set a 2013 growth target of 6.8%.

A few weeks ago, the CEO of Astra (the dominant vehicle distributor) said he expected slower sales, in a FT interview.

BTW, no Asean round-up this week.

M’sia: Surprised BN didn’t raise this

Coming the way of MAS and AirAsia, if PAS and its secular buddies come into power?

NO RED lipstick, no red nail polish. These are the new rules for flight attendants on Turkey’s national carrier, Turkish Airlines (THY). The ban has provoked a furore among secular Turks, who fret that under the ruling, Islam-rooted Justice and Development (AK) party, Ataturk’s cherished Republic is hurtling towards religious rule.

… stirred similar controversy in February when it proposed new “chaste” uniforms for attendants. These included ankle-length caftans for women and silver-brocade coats for men. Secular Turks howled in indignation and, in the event, the designs were scrapped. Claims of creeping Islam did not, though, alter the carrier’s decision to ban alcohol on most domestic flights and on flights to eight destinations in Africa and the Middle East. And last year management eased bans on the Islamic-style headscarf for ground service personnel (though not for cabin crew.)

http://www.economist.com/blogs/gulliver/2013/05/turkish-airlines

M’sia: Why God is not taking sides

But first, what doesn’t get reported on internet or in S’pore media: the M’sian govt reported that a Pew Research Center poll showing that 82% of Malaysians were “satisfied with the way things are going in the country”, up from 76% in 2007. Pew is a respected US polling outfit.

Can’t stop laughing at this prayer going round internet asking M’sians to pray, “Dear God if you are there/ Is it too much to ask/For a leadership /With honesty, integrity and conviction /To create a brighter future”

Problem is that neither leader has honesty, integrity and conviction. One’s a product of the BN system. The other has betrayed his Muslim comrades in 1982 when he joined UMNO, the then UMNO Deputy president in the early 199os to take that post , and then Dr M in the late 1990s when he tried to be PM. After he was sacked, overnight he called for “Roformasi”.

If Nik, one of the Lims or Mrs Anwar were PK’s de facto leader, then there would be a leader with  honesty, integrity and conviction. But taz not the case.

 

 

 

M’sia in three charts, PAS on hudud and UMNO self-sabo

From FT.

Letting in the professed limb choppers

In 2009 the DAP left the Kedah state government over a series of measures that were seen to curtail non-Muslim rights in the state. This included Azizan’s failure to stop the demolition of a pig slaughterhouse as well as the state government’s decision to raise housing quota for bumiputras from 30% to 50%. Several measures such as the attempt to ban women from performing on stage during Chinese New Year and turn Kulim town into a “no-alcohol” district, did not go down well with many non-Muslims.*

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Dr. Harun Din, the deputy spiritual leader of PAS has stated unequivocally that the hudud laws will be implemented if the PR were to take over government.

Many ulama in PAS are envisioning the formation of the hudud belt in northern Malaysia if PAS can wrest Perlis and Terengganu while maintaining control over Kedah and Kelantan. This vision is diametrically opposed to the DAP’s vision of a secular state with a more moderate Islam being the dominant strand.*

Self-sabo

The above problems PK has in Kedah should see the return of BN there.

However the likely choice of Mukhriz Mahathir as the next chief minister of Kedah has resulted in disgruntlement amongst some UMNO leaders in the state. UMNO in Kedah seems to be divided into the pro-Mahathir and anti-Mahathir factions.*

(*Mohamed Nawab Mohamed Osman is a Research Fellow with the Malaysia Program and Contemporary Islam Program at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.)

Update: On Asean round-up this week.

Johor: Will PK’s racial tactic work? & the case for race-based preference

In the 2008 GE, Johor remained a BN stronghold. It won 25 of the 26 federal seats, and 50 of the 56 state seats. This time round, DAP’s Lim Kit Siang is talking of winning 19 federal seats. Why? He smoking ganja? His and PK’s unstated reason is the “Chinese” factor. As I’ve blogged before, about 70% of the Chinese polled in M’sia will support PK (even if it means supporting a PAS candidate who wants to chop off limbs and segregate the ladies from the men at supermarket checkouts): they are that angry with UMNO and BN. And Johor has a sizable Chinese population in many seats.

But an ISEAS* Fellow predicts that BN will remain a BN stronghold on the federal and state level (PK doesn’t seem to expect to win the state). The Chinese vote will go the PK way, but the Malays will still, just, vote UMNO and its allies. Malaysian Elections – The Battle for Johor.

And surprisingly for a publication that is forever grumbling against race-based preference policies (see its take on M’sia) in a blog posting that otherwise reaffirms its grumbles, a staffer wrote in the context of the US:

For all its shortcomings, affirmative action is one of few tools that has helped to disrupt this feedback loop [Of inequality begetting more inequality] over the past few decades. Elite schools practicing affirmative action produce more black and Hispanic graduates who find success in their fields and engage in greater civic activity with individuals of all races. But in states prohibiting racial preferences, minority enrollments at selective colleges have shrunk while white students have seen only a trivially small gain in their prospects for admission. The percentage of students of colour in graduate programmes has dropped 12% overall in four states that have banned affirmative action, with declines as high as 26% in engineering. Race-neutral attempts to admit more minorities—measures like the top 10% plan at the University of Texas, which was supplemented by the race-conscious provision now under judicial scrutiny—also have difficulty matching the outcomes of affirmative action. If the Supreme Court draws a line in the sand against the consideration of race in university admissions next month, it will likely burnish, not erase, the colour lines that still divide the American landscape.

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*While ISEAS is a stat board funded by the S’pore govt, its researchers who analyse M’sia are in the main pro-Anwar M’sians. Hence this analysis is interesting, even if writer is ang moh.

M’sia: Self sabo is the problem for BN & PK

About a third of the seats on the peninsula will have more than two contestants. “Independents” (largely those not nominated to stand by BN or PK ) are contesting

A few weeks ago, Najib said that BN could win a 2/3s majority if there wasn’t “internal sabotage”. He was talking of passed-over candidates at the state and federal level taking revenge by trying to ensure that the BN candidates selected in their place lost to the opposition. This has always been a problem for BN because of the goodies available to office-holders: hence the jealousy and willingness to support the opposition.

PK had problems  in deciding how to allocate seats among PAS, PKR and DAP, and self-sabo may be a major problem, outside Kelantan and Trengganu, both PAS strongholds. Interestingly in the analysis of “independent” analysts I’ve heard speak on the chances of PK winning the election, this issue had never been raised. But they were confident that within the BN ranks, there would be self-sabo.

And interestingly while the DAP and PAS seem to be disciplined internally, there are signs that Anwar’s PK is having problems BN style.

Asean round-up

Thai banks are warily watching for signs of a credit bubble, even as they make record profits on robust loan growth on the back of a strong economy.

Bangkok Bank, Thailand’s largest lender by assets hasraised its loan-loss reserve coverage to 203.3% of non performing loans (NPLs) in the first quarter, more than double the central bank’s minimum requirement.

The Bank of Thailand has cautioned banks on rising household debt in South-east Asia’s second biggest economy, and expressed concern that cheap home loans could cause a steep rise in prices similar to that seen in Singapore and Hong Kong.Thai banks say there are not worried about a property bubble, but concede there is a possible excess supply of condominiums along Bangkok’s mass transit routes.

Fresh from leveraging up to buy a stake in insurer Ping An (he borrowed US$5.5bn), Dhanin Chearavanont is borrowing US$6 billion to finance a takeover of Siam Makro. Combining the Thai cash-and-carry group with his 7-Eleven convenience store chain makes sense. He co-founded Siam Makro with Dutch group SHV in the late 1980s, but was forced to sell out in 1998 when the Asian crisis left his empire overextended (soon to be repeated?). Sentimentality aside, the combined business should also be in a stronger position to expand into neighbouring Southeast Asian countries such as Laos and Myanmar.

The reunion is expensive. The offer price of 787 baht per share is 75% above where Siam Makro was trading at the beginning of January, and values the business at 53 times last year’s earnings. The advantage is that both Siam Makro and CP All, Mr Dhanin’s partially listed Thai retail company, currently have no debt.

“No business as usual if opposition wins Johor: Anwar”. So too said Lim Kit Siang. This means Iskandar will be affected.

“Leaders of Indonesia & Singapore discuss ways to boost close ties” Err what about the forest fires that come round this time every yr for decades? I’m bullish on Indonesia but taz despite its dysfunctional govt.

Dr M has a point about racial division.

Dr M has been getting a lot of stick on his comments that M’sia is becoming more racially divided. Well he has point going by the data contained ISEAS analysis on M’sian election Malaysia’s GE13- A Tale of Two Manifestos. Two-thirds of the Cina polled are against the BN. There are decent majorities of Malays and Indians in favour of BN.

Either the Chinese are racists, or as is more likely, not enough goodies for the Chinese, or they are plain greedy (most likely?).

Update on 26 April: Evidence of racism http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=474361509301974&set=a.198955503509244.49839.186134701457991&type=1&theater ?

Thanks to you know who ))))

Asean round-up

M’sia too will suffer because of drop in PC sales juz like S’pore http://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/04/11/when-economy-slows-not-nec-its-cause-ft-supply-ltd/ because Penang too is part of the Mircosoft ecosystem. And it too is not part of the Apple or Google ecosystems.

“BN will win big”

David Goh a geomancer got the election day right saying May 5 is the only date in the 60-day window designated as a “war day. He also predicted that the National Front will win the elections, regain federal seats in the states of Selangor and Kedah and secure more state seats in the opposition stronghold of Penang compared to 2008. Bernama.

I hope that all those who say Anwar will be the next PM realise that the Muslim Brudderhood M’sia (aka PAS) has said that the position is undecided and that it should go to the strongest party after the GE, if PK wins. If that party is the Brudderhood (as is likely), and DAP and Anwar’s gang gang up against PAS, BN may still form the governing party.

Asean round-up

Bangkok SkyTrain Fund Raises $2.1 Billion in I.P.O. The offering, by an infrastructure fund controlled by the rail operator BTS Group, priced at the top of its marketed range, and ranks as the biggest ever new listing by a Thai company.

DEALBOOK

Burma has shortlisted 12 international consortia, including one led by Singapore Telecommunications, for the final stage in its telecommunications licence tender, the Wires report.

Other shortlisted applicants are a consortium comprising China Mobile and Vodafone Group, India’s Bharti Airtel, MTN Dubai, Jamaica’s Digicel Group, Japan’s KDDI Corp and Sumitomo Corp, Malaysia’s Axiata Group, Norway’s Telenor, Millicom International Cellular, Qatar Telecom and Vietnam’s Viettel Group.

Seems Temasel’s teco didn’t make it.

The shortlisted applicants can now formally bid for the two licences, each with initial terms of 15 years. Bids must be submitted by June 3, and the winners will be announced by June 27.

SMEs like Iskandar http://www.todayonline.com/business/ocbc-expects-sme-loans-iskandar-triple

What happens in PK wins GE but Johor remains UMNO heartland.

PMs Lee & Najib didn’t read Tocqueville?

Well Najib certainly didn’t because he said recently, “We have in the last four years proven that whenever we make pledges, we have fulfilled our pledge”, and “unveiled a manifesto on Saturday pledging bigger cash handouts, millions of new jobs and lower taxes and crime, as he seeks his first mandate in looming national polls.”

If he had, he would not have said these things because of the dangers of rising expectations: people simply expect more.

Alexis De Tocqueville is famous particularly in the US for Democracy in America. But he also published The Old Regime and the Revolution in1856. In it he talked of the dangers of rising expectations.He argued that revolutions often took place not in times of despair but under improving conditions:

experience teaches us that, generally speaking, the most perilous moment for a bad government is one when it seeks to mend its ways….Patiently endured for so long as it seemed beyond redress, a grievance comes to appear intolerable once the possibility of removing it crosses men’s minds.*

As for our PM, I doubt if he read Tocqueville**. Because if he had, he wouldn’t have said on Saturday, the Singapore society is in a different phase now, no longer a teenager but more of a young adult — with a different growth rate, anxieties and issues. “What changes do we need to make? Not just policy changes, but changes in our philosophy, in our approach, in the way we define the compact, the balance between the individual and the society, between what the person does, and what is the State’s responsibility.

“I think we need to consider this carefully and think about how we will move (forward), so that we can meet the challenges of this new phase.”

He is setting us up for expectations that he and the PAP can never ever fulfill. One reason he can never ever fulfill our expectations is the attitude that he and the other PAP leaders know best (witness the Population White Paper). They know that only they can plan ahead (Mah Bow Tan planning the supply of HDB flats, and Raymond Lim planning tpt infrastructure to cope with immigrants by the cattle-truck load) , that they are infallible in policymaking (“Stop at two” and limiting the supply of home-grown doctors), and only they are able to ignore pressure groups and populism.

Another reason is that there are critics like Dr Chee, E-Jay, Gilbert Goh and Ravi who will never ever be satisfied. And nowadays they have the social media and internet to publicise their unhappiness and dissatisfaction.

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*When I first came across this many yrs ago, it struck a chord. I did “History” for O and A levels, and it had struck me that the colonial powers could never ever satisfy the aspirations of the local elites in Indonesia and Malaya. Whenever, they conceded anything, the response was always, “More”. The best way of maintaining power it seemed was to “shoot the trouble-makers”, something the British, Dutch and other colonial powers did in the 19th century. In the 20th, they became more squeamish (lost their empires), and left the shooting to the USSR (Hungary 1956) and China (1989 and in Tibet).

**This is sad as I’m sure LKY had read Tocqueville because he was always trying to ensure that S’poreans didn’t have rising expectations of anything. He always wanted us to be aware of the fragility of life. He admitted, a few yrs ago, that the reason why the size of the reserves and the returns on the reserves had to kept a secret from S’poreans was his fear that we would expect more to be spent on ourselves, if we knew how wealthy S’pore was. At the peak of his mental powers, he would never have said this because by saying it he was saying that there was plenty of money that could be spent.

Thinking about it, he and the PAP must love s/o JBJ, Chris Balding, and the many readers of TRE would are forever bitching that the reserves have been squandered: they are doing LEE’s work in trying to keep expectations low. And hate Tan Jee Say for saying that S$60bn of the reserves is “small change”. No wonder, he hasn’t been rewarded for helping ensure that Tony Tan became president.

Asean round-up

Indon IPOs: Private-equity firm PT Saratoga Investama Sedaya, and Indonesia’s biggest taxi operator Blue Bird Group, have picked underwriters to prepare their initial public offerings (IPOs) as they seek to raise money ahead of a 2014 general election.

Burmese telco update: Telecoms will be among the first industries to be liberalised under Burma’s reformist government, which hopes to place mobiles into the hands of between 75% and 80% of its 60 million citizens by 2016, up from an estimated 6% today.

If take-up is high, the entire mobile market in Burma – renamed Myanmar by the ruling military junta – could be worth $10bn (£6bn) a year, with networks generating $7.3bn of those revenues, research by Ericsson found.

Foreign companies are eager to partake in what has been described as a mouthwatering opportunity, and by Thursday’s deadline 22 bids had been submitted.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/apr/04/vodafone-china-mobile-burma-telecoms

SingTel and Temasek are also trying their luck. but LKY’s remarks about “stupid” generals (a few yrs ago) can’t be helpful.

Iskandar: Some issues are beginning to surface as highlighted in a recent Business Times article which said that investors are not getting assurances in black and white on issues like land zoning, mortgage loan quantums and Bumiputra employment quotas, among others.

Foreigners investing in Iskandar might do better if they can understand that most policies in Malaysia are instituted by politicians of the day. When the politician leaves, a new policy replacing the old one is to be expected. When doing business in Johor, one has to factor in such risks.

Remember that Putrajaya, the state administrative capital of Malaysia, is still struggling after more than 20 years in the making. When Iskandar was mooted in 2006, authorities were confident about getting funds from Middle Eastern investors. Obviously, that plan didn’t work out and the focus is now back to Singaporean investors.

http://www.tremeritus.com/2013/04/01/perils-of-investing-in-iskandar-malaysia/

Thailand is the “Detroit of the East”. And it is Japanese carmakers in particular that use the country as a manufacturing hub. In 2012 production reached 2.45m vehicles of which 1m were exported. This made Thailand the 7th largest car exporter globally.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/schumpeter/2013/04/thailands-booming-car-industry

Eat yr hear out Dr M. Remember, he started Project Proton because he wanted to kick-start M’sia into becoming a leading vehicle manufacturer.

Pinoys ahoy: Over 10m Filipinos, equivalent to about a quarter of the country’s labour force, live or work abroad, permanently or temporarily, legally or illegally, in over 200 countries. Their remittances are equivalent to 8.5% of GDP, helping the country to plug its trade deficit and amass over $80 billion of currency reserves. As a result, the Philippines has become a net creditor to the rest of the world … , not just a net supplier of labour.

These impregnable external finances are one reason why Fitch, a ratings agency, awarded the Philippines its first ever investment-grade credit rating on March 28th.

http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21575812-archipelago-has-never-been-more-creditworthy-ratings-heaven

What PM should learn from M’sian voters

It’s not juz a growing economy and the goodies that win elections:

… robust economic growth of 5.6% in 2012, poverty virtually eliminated, inequality reduced and 400 legal cases against corruption initiated. And he was able to announce that a scheme to give cash handouts to poorer households will become an annual event.

All should be set fair, you might think, for Mr Najib’s ruling coalition, the Barisan Nasional (BN), to romp home again at the election, as it has done in every ballot since independence in 1957.

… the outcome is in doubt, for the first time in Malaysia’s history. (Last but one issue of Economist).

When people get tired of the governing party or parties, no amount of GDP growth, goodies or appeal to self-interest will change their minds. They can be that daft. I mean if PAS becomes the strongest party in the PK, I’m sure Chinese and Indian women would be forced to wear tudungs. Remember too Anwar made his name in politics as a Muslim activist, not as a secular activist. Yet Indian and Chinese wimmin support PK because they support the DAP and Anwar’s party.

Seriously, there has always been been a large minority of M’sians who don’t like UMNO and its BN allies. What has changed is that a large number of voters who regularly voted for the BN got tired of the growing corruption in M’sia. Despite being given a ringing endorsement by the votes after Dr M stood down, Badawi was seen as overall ineffective especially in combating corruption. Came 2008, there was a swing against BN: it lost its two-thirds majority in parliament which enabled it to amend the constitution at will, and lost the plurality of votes on the peninsula, and lost a few states.

UMNO replaced Badawi with Najib, who has been throwing money at the electorate. But because he hasn’t done much on getting rid of corruption (and getting rid of pro Bumiputera policies, always a sore point among minorities), BN remains unpopular: unpopular enough to lose on the peninsula. And if the peninsula falls, the barons in the East (BN’s stronghold)will switch sides, even though one is an UMNO leader, and the other is a BN baron.

The issue of corruption got voters moving from BN to the Opposition. In S’pore, if the PAP, continues bulldozing its way on, and misrepresenting its “FTs are betterest” and “6.9m or bust”  policies”, it will lose votes even if continues throwing our money on making life more comfortable for us. S’poreans would say, “About time, so no need to be grateful. And it’s our money leh”.

So it’s all about immigration. It’s all about the 15,000 — 25,000 new citizens, and PRs by the container-load that the PAP wants so that S’pore will have 6.9m people in 2030.

(Someone by the name of Victoria posted on TRE: “I am sick and tired of all these alt sites who will twist every story involving foreigners just to incite intolerance, hatred and xenophobia. There is really no need for such gutter politics to paint PAP in a bad light. The hard truth is either we want more foreigners or we don’t want foreigners at all.”

Well, Victoria, I for one am sick and tired of the PAP govt and the constructive, nation-building media asserting that FTs and 6.9m population are to compensate for S’poreans refusal to breed. I have yet to see any chart illustrating why a TFR of 1.2 needs to be compensated for by bringing in FTs so that population reaches 6.9m. Remember that the replacement rate is 2.1.)

The one thing that PM has in his favour is that S’pore doesn’t have a charismatic scoundrel, turncoat and opportunist that M’sia has in Anwar Ibrahim. Mr Anwar once served as deputy prime minister but fell out with former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad in 1998. He was caught trying to take Dr M’s job.

For the absence of an Anwar, PM should be grateful, though we may not. In S’pore, we have the likes of Tan Kin Lian, Tan Jee Say, s/o JBJ, and Mad Dog Chee clowning around. WP Low has characteristically stood aside, affirming that he is only a co-driver, not an aspirant driver. he is too modest. While he is certainly no Anwar, he is a cut above the two Tans, Mad Dog and s/o JBJ. He is no clown. He is a serious, systematic chap who knows his limits. Sadly, he has limited aims for the WP.

Another reason for PM to be grateful.

Related post: http://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/03/01/rebuilding-trust-the-pap-way-one-step-forward-two-steps-back/

The April Fools joke is on the govt

Private daily newspapers are being sold in Burma for the first time in almost 50 years, as a state monopoly ends.

Sixteen papers have so far been granted licences, although only four were ready to publish on Monday.

This is another important milestone on Burma’s journey away from authoritarian rule, the BBC’s Jonathan Head reports from the commercial capital, Rangoon (BBC report on 1 April).

Yet our president has the cheek on 1 April to say. “We want to see Myanmar succeed, and are prepared to do whatever is within our means to support this transition towards democracy and steady development.”

“Where Myanmar goes, S’pore doesn’t dare follow” is what he should be saying.

Update at 10.20 — Forgot to mention that people don’t need a licence to protest: peaceful demonstrations are not an issue.

Asean round-up: The dark side

Strikes  for higher wages a regular occurrence in Indonesia: workers and businesses unhappy http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21840416

Muslims attacked in central Burma: Mosques and other Muslim buildings have been attacked by crowds of Buddhists in towns on the road from Rangoon to Pyay, about 200km (125 miles) to the north … A state of emergency is in force in the central town of Meiktila, where some 40 deaths have been reported … At least 12,000 Muslims are thought to have fled their homes in the unrest …

The conflict is the worst since violence in Rakhine state last year, where nearly 200 people were killed and tens of thousands forced from their homes.

The conflict that erupted in Rakhine involved Buddhists and Rohingya Muslims, who are not recognised as Burmese citizens. Scores of Rohingyas have fled what they say is persecution in Burma in recent months.

The Burmese government will use force if necessary to stop “political opportunists and religious extremists” from fomenting hatred between faiths, President Thein Sein has warned. BBC reports

Numbers show GCT & Lee Jnr messed up?

This chart shows all the economies that maintained 6% growth or faster over 30 years. S’pore’s run of 7ish% growthended in 1994, when GCT was PM and Lee Jnr was Deputy PM and in charge of the economy. Going by the things our PM is doing now, maybe GCT held him back? Or LHL has repented? And the changes he is initiating, is his way of saying, “Sorry”?. How about a claw-back of ministerial salaries? Esp of PM’sand DPM’s? If it happens to bankers, it can happen to ministers: after all ministers’ salaries pegged to bankers among others.

Asean round-up

Airbus has won a record order for 234 A320 planes worth 18.4bn euros (US$24bn) from Indonesia’s Lion Air.The order trumps last year’s record order for 230 Boeing planes – also from Lion Air.

Last Saturday, Bloomberry Resorts Corp’s was opened by Philippine President Benigno Aquino.

Big casino operators will be scrutinising the Philippines’ debut as Asia’s newest top-end gambling destination this weekend to see if Manila can deliver on promises of better profit margins and lower costs than global betting capital Macau, says Reuters.

They also want to know whether Bloomberry Resorts Corp , whose shares have climbed 40% in the last six months on hopes of quick returns, can overcome national security concerns and flawed infrastructure to bring in VIPs from China to place bets at its US$1.2 billion Solaire casino resort.

Its rivals are Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd and Genting Hong Kong Ltd, with their respective local partners Belle Corp and Alliance Global Group Inc.

“There are high rollers coming in to play … I am expecting at least 1-1.5 billion pesos (US$25 million to US$37 million) to be wagered tomorrow night,” Cristino Naguiat, head of local regulator the Philippine Gaming Corp (Pagcor) told reporters.

The advantage that the Philippines has is that junket operators are welcomed, unlike in S’pore. Junket operators have a reputation for laundering money, and ties with organised crime.

Bangkok skytrain operator BTS Group Holdings Pcl has received commitments worth $850 million from 20 cornerstone investors for Thailand’s biggest initial public offering, a source with direct knowledge of the plans told Reuters on Friday.

The investors in the infrastructure fund IPO include insurer AIA Group Ltd, hedge fund Azentus Capital Management and global asset managers Fidelity and Capital Research and Management, added the source, who was not authorized to speak publicly on the matter.

BTS on Friday week filed a prospectus for the up to $2.1 billion IPO, but the document did not include the names of the cornerstones.

The fund will likely yield between 6-6.2%, Reuters reported.

PT Matahari Department Store (LPPF)’s owners raised 12.7 trillion rupiah (US$1.3 billion) selling stock in the Indonesian retailer, Bloomberg reported.

CVC and Lippo Group sold 1.167 billion shares at 10,850 rupiah. The shares were initially offered at 10,000 rupiah to 11,250 rupiiah

The sellers, seeking to capitalize on investor optimism about consumer spending in Indonesia, asked for as much as double the median valuation among department stores in emerging Asia, price-to-earnings data compiled by Bloomberg show T(he shares were offered for as much as 28 times Matahari’s forecast 2013 earnings). Jakarta’s stock benchmark is up 11.3 percent this year and hit a record high earlier this month.

Temasek GIC is a cornerstone investor despite selling some shares too.GIC also committed to buy a 1.8% stake in the share sale as a cornerstone investor at the same time as its private equity arm was one of the main selling shareholders. Temasek too was a cornerstone investor. There were 15 cornerstone investors each with less than 5%.

(Update: Last para amended and expanded on 24 March 2013.

Asean is impt

According to its latest figures, more than 50% of its [Asean's] total trade in 2011 took place within the Asean member nations or with China, Japan and South Korea.

The US and EU accounted for less than 25% share.

And analysts project Asean to be an even bigger driver of regional growth in the coming years.

IHS Global Insight has forecast the combined gross domestic product (GDP) of the ASEAN bloc to rise from $2.3 trillion in 2012 to $10 trillion by 2030.

“Asean will become another locomotive of Asian growth,” says IHS Global Insight’s Mr Biswas.

At the same time, some analysts point to another trend which they say is playing a key role in driving consumer demand in other, relatively smaller Asian nations.

“As wages rise in China, many companies are setting up factories in other countries such Vietnam and Cambodia,” explains Mr Rein of the China Market Research Group.

Mr Rein explains that as firms set up facilities in those countries, more people are finding new and in some cases better-paying jobs.

“That is creating a whole new middle class in those countries, with more disposable incomes,” he says …

There are fault lines emerging in the political situation in various countries,” says Mr Biswas of IHS Global Insight.

“A lot of Asia’s future momentum will depend on stronger regional political co-operation.”

At the same time, analysts say that while the region’s economies have become less dependent on the US and EU, they have become increasingly reliant on China.

They warn that a sharp slowdown in the Chinese economy was likely to have a big impact on the region’s overall growth.

There had been fears of a big decline in China’s growth last year. While those fears have abated for now, analysts say it is a threat that nations need to be wary of.

“It is a fairly minimal risk, but it is a risk you have to account for,” says Mr Rein of China Market Research Group.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21737875

Asean round-up

When elections are pending

Malaysia’s Armed Forces Fund Board will pay the highest dividend in its history after posting its best ever results.

The fund – Lembaga Tabung Angkatan Tentera (LTAT) – has declared a 16% dividend with a record RM759.3 million (S$305 million) payout for its financial year ended 2012, reported Malaysia’s Business Times.

LTAT posted a record income of RM907.4 million last year, up 5.5% from the previous year, and targets earnings to breach RM1 billion this year.

“The 16 per cent dividend is the highest ever payout since LTAT’s establishment 40 years ago,” Defence Minister Ahmad Zahid Hamidi said.

The security forces also got gd pay rises this year.

UK Pru is now Asian

Two-thirds of the Prudential’s outperformance can be explained by its extraordinary rate of growth in Asia – the profits and cash from the regon are turning out better, and arriving more quickly, than expected http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2013/mar/13/asia-growth-prudential. In Asean, Pru is big in S’pore and M’sia, and expanding in Indonesia. I think it bot something last yr in Thailand. Unlike S’pore, there is ample room to expand life insc coverage in the other three countries.

BTW, the UK-based insurer that is big in Asia is headed by an African. It’s a globalised world.

HSBC lords it over its peers in Asia

StanChart also does well in Asia (wholesale banking profits in Asia rose 10% over 2010-12). but it is a minnow compared to these banks.

And investment banks are looking increasingly for deals in Asean region. In the IPO league table in 2012with KL at 5th place and HK at 4th. SGX with two FTs leading it was nowhere.

M’sia: Banking & politics

CIMB has a very gd CEO who made the bank a regional player bigger than DBS by managing to pick-up a controlling stake in an Indon bank during the 2007 financial crisis at a song (usually foreigners get screwed in Indonesia), and the rest is history. Everyone else is now playing catch-up including MayBank.

Sadly, if BN does not win a two-thirds majority in the coming general elections, he will out on the street. As the election result is expected to be close, CIMB executives are assuming whoever wins, he will go. He is the younger brudder of the PM, and if BN does not win a two-thirds majority, he will be defenestrated, and younger brudder will follow.

But it’s always like that in M’sia. The CEOs, and controlling shareholder (unless it is a govt agency) are always vulnerable when there is a change of PM, or when there is an unsuccessful attempt to replace a PM.

Asean round-up

The Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group “is among banks considering a purchase of TPG Capital’s $1.6 billion stake in Indonesia’s PT Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional, two people with knowledge of the matter said,” Bloomberg News reports.

• BLOOMBERG NEWS

A bid by Malaysian low-cost carrier, AirAsia, to set up an airline in India has won approval from the Indian government.

It would be the first foreign company to try to capture the rising demand in India’s aviation sector.

AirAsia India would be a joint venture with the well-known Tata Group, based in Chennai in South India.

India’s aviation industry, which has suffered major losses, was opened to foreign investment last year.

The government now allows foreign companies to own up to 49% of a local airline.

AirAsia, which is Asia’s largest low-cost carrier, will make an initial investment of 800m rupees ($15m; £10m) and will own 49% of the new airline, while Tata Sons will have a 30% stake. Part of BBC report

S-Reits remain “betterst’ in region

S-Reits delivered the region’s highest dividend yield as at the end of last month, the latest month-end Asia Index Report produced by the FTSE Group has noted.

The FTSE ST Reit Index and the FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Singapore Reits Index ranked highest in terms of dividend yield and lowest in terms of volatility, relative to their regional counterparts.

.

Thailand downgraded by US broker

Morgan Stanley downgraded Thailand equities to ‘underweight’ from ‘equal weight’, reflecting its expensive valuation and overbought technical indicators. It’s been up 12% in US$ terms this yr, 9% in the local currency.

The downgrade put Thailand into the broker’s list of underweight-rated countries in Southeast Asia, including the Philippines. The broker had ‘equal weight’ for Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia.

“Thailand is expensive in terms of all the valuation measures we use in the model: P/B, Z-Score of P/E, and dividend yield,” Morgan Stanley said in its Asia/Global Emerging Markets report dated Feb 27.

“Thailand has outperformed the MSCI EM by more than 8 per cent YTD 2013, which makes its technical factors like price reversal and RSI unattractive,” it said.

—

Not enough interesting ASEAN news this week for the usual Asean round-up.

Asean round-up

The Philippine unit of Macau casino company Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd  said on Tuesday it plans to sell up to 1 billion shares as it prepares to develop a $1 billion casino-resort project with local partner Belle Corp.

Melco, run by Australian billionaire James Packer and the son of Macau gambling tycoon Stanley Ho, bought a 93% in Manchester, a formerly illiquid stock with investments in pharmaceutical and real estate businesses. Melco paid Manchester shareholders 1.3 billion pesos for the backdoor listing.

Melco and Belle, controlled by the Philippines’ richest man, Henry Sy, formalized their partnership in October.

Belle plans to build an integrated entertainment resort complex called Belle Grande Manila Bay, which features a 30,000-square-metre casino in a sprawling gaming complex being developed near Manila Bay. Melco will operate the casino.

There are three other groups with casino licences in the Philippines.

Financier Nathaniel Rothschild has lost his bid to oust the current board of coal mining giant Bumi, the company he helped to found.

Chairman Samin Tan survived a vote to remove him but informed the board he was stepping down.

Mr Rothschild had wanted to rejoin the company and expel 12 of the 14 board members, including the chief executive and chairman.Allegations of financial irregularities at Bumi’s key Indonesian operating subsidiary, PT Bumi Resources – in which it owns 29% alongside the Bakrie family – first emerged in September 2012 , after Mr Rothschild received information from a whistleblower.

Thailand’s economic growth exceeded expectations in the last three months of 2012 as it continued to recover from the previous year’s devastating floods.

Gross domestic product surged 18.9% in the October-December period, from a year earlier. Most analysts had forecast a figure close to 15%.

Compared with the previous quarter, the economy grew by 3.6%. But inflation is a concern.

Indonesia: Opportunities always there in infrastructure

Indonesia is the single most preferred destination for Singapore-based companies planning to venture overseas in the next six months, according to the BT-UniSIM Business Climate Survey. Indonesia overtook China – the destination of choice for the past two years – which slipped to second place while Malaysia rounded off the top three.

As flooding in Jakarta highlighted the dismal state of Indonesia’s infrastructure, a potential US$200 billion pipeline of power plants, water systems and toll roads presents “huge opportunities” for the region’s banks, engineering companies and law firms, says the country’s agencies charged with reaching out to private investors that can help deliver projects.

“The opportunity is very big,” said Emma Sri Martini, president director of state-owned PT Sarana Multi Infrastruktur (SMI), which was set up in 2009 to plan and help finance projects with public money and find private sector backers.

Private investment will play an important role in building the transport, electricity and other services the country will need to maintain economic growth, expected to accelerate to 6.3 per cent in 2013, the World Bank said in December. Spending on fuel subsidies – a popular vote winner that cost about US$20 billion in 2011 – rivals amounts earmarked for infrastructure this year.

Asean-round up

In Thailand – up 7.5% since the New Year – the market has been helped by a raft of initial public offerings and a boom in cross-border takeovers by Thai companies.

But the Stock Exchange of Thailand is also becoming a hub, connecting its securities trading with that of Malaysia and Singapore, and helping Laos develop its fledgling equity and bond market.

It has also signed a memorandum of understanding to help Burma do the same. FYI, the Laos market, tiny and illiquid, is up 17% in the last five weeks.

The Philippines has for decades resolutely defied the expectations that have been heaped upon it since the end of the Marcos era, and underperformed with monotonous regularity.

However, the fundamentals do look convincing now: low inflation of about 3-3.5%, growth estimated at above 6% through to 2016, strong consumption, election spending and rising foreign investor interest.

The economist Nouriel Roubini, who predicted the 2008 financial crisis (and got the recovery dead wrong by continuing to maintain a determinedly gloomy attitude to the world economy ever since), had surprising comments for the Philippines earlier this month, predicting 7% growth and praising its economic success based on fiscal and governance reforms.

He even predicted the rating agencies would grant it an investment grade rating – a stamp of approval for foreign investors. At present, the country’s rating is a notch below investment grade.

By contrast the economy in Vietnam is now in the doldrums and experts pointing to decades of economic mismanagement as the cause. Many Vietnamese are now saying their trust in the government has gone. Sounds familiar?

Another exciting year is in store for initial public offerings (IPOs) in Malaysia. A recent report by HwangDBS Vickers Research identified close to 30 companies that may be floated on the Malaysian bourse this year.

Among the biggest IPOs set for this year are Malakoff Corp Bhd, Iskandar Waterfront Holdings Sdn Bhd, the power assets of 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB), AirAsia X and possibly Westports Malaysia.

Corporate bonds issuance hit nearly RM124 billion (S$49.7 billion). A record amount of nearly RM146 billion was raised through corporate bonds and IPOs, an 89% jump over the RM77.2 billion raised in 2011, going by capital market statistics released by the Securities Commission.

The corporate bond market raised 73% more than the RM71.2 billion raised in 2011; it was the highest amount raised to date, with sukuk issuances amounting to RM97.5 billion or 79% of total bond issuances.

The increase in government-guaranteed assurances boosted growth in private debt securities (PDS) and 2013 issuances are expected to be even higher.

DBS: Why it needs to buy Temasek’s stake in Danamon

Indonesian lenders the most profitable among the 20 biggest economies in the world, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The average return on equity, a measure of how well shareholder money is reinvested, is 23 percent for the country’s five banks with a market value more than $5 billion … Returns in Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest economy, are driven by net interest margins, the difference between what banks charge for loans — an average of 12 percent, according to the central bank — and what they pay for deposits. The average margin for the country’s big banks is 7 percentage points, the highest of the 20 economies … Indonesia’s high net interest margins have prompted banks such as DBS Group Holdings Ltd. in Singapore, where the figure averages 2 percent, to look at acquisitions. DBS, Southeast Asia’s biggest lender, made a $6.8 billion bid in April for 99 percent of Bank Danamon and is awaiting regulatory clearance.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-04/world-s-most-profitable-banks-in-indonesia-double-u-s-returns.html

UOB and OCBC have an easier time because of their relatively large M’sian contributions to earnings. Malaysia is generous to its banks.

DBS’s core markets of S’pore and HK are very competitive and mature markets.

Asean round-up

Carlsberg has signed a joint venture to brew and market its beers in Burma. Carlsberg will own 51% of the joint venture with local firm Myanmar Golden Star (MGS) Breweries.

Foreign banks could enter Burma with majority-owned joint ventures with local banks as early as April, FT reports, followings news of a cabinet reshuffle and announcements on reforms to attract foreign investment.

The Indonesian economy, the biggest in Southeast Asia, slowed in the last three months of 2012, dragging down full year growth.The economy grew by 6.2% last year, down from 6.5% in 2011.http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21333607

 

ASEAN mkts leading the world

In January, Thailand and Indonesia are the world’s best equity markets. M’sia is 4th and S’pore is 7th.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2013/02/daily-chart-0

And the voters of Punggol East still vote against the PAP? Are voters deft?

Not in constructive, nation-building ST, Today or Singapolitics

This appeared in BT yesterday. Surprised it did not appear in ST or Today or in Singapolitics. Yaacob, Lawrence, PM: rather than CoCs for netizens, juz make sure SPH and MediaCorp editors earn their thirty pieces of silver ++, by printing independent “validation” of PAP Hard Truths.

M’sia’s minimum wage law may result in food inflation

Another consequence is higher outflow of money

… Food inflation and the outflow of money are the likely consequences of the implementation of the minimum wage law, which came into force four weeks ago.

From Jan 1, employers must pay a minimum wage of RM900 (S$366) a month in Peninsular Malaysia and RM800 a month in Sabah, Sarawak and Labuan.

In an interview with Malaysia’s Business Times recently, Malaysia Employers Federation (MEF) executive director Shamsuddin Bardan estimated that foreign workers, on average, send back some RM700 each month, which is half of their take-home pay, including overtime claims.

“With a conservative estimate of two million foreign workers here, that works out to be RM1.4 billion flowing out of Malaysia to their home countries every month …

Asean round-up

Problems Chinese and British investors face.

Chinese investments in Burma

U/m extracted from BBC report:

– China has nearly $14bn of interests in Burma – one third of all foreign investment in the country

– About US$13bn of that has been invested since 2008

– Most investments are in hydro-electric power, oil and gas, mining, jade and teak

– Critics say a US$2.5bn project for twin oil and gas pipelines from the Bay of Bengal to western China will provide China with cheap energy while Rangoon continues to suffer power cuts

– In 2011 Burma halted a hydropower project, the Myitsone dam on the Irrawaddy river, which would have created a reservoir bigger than Singapore.

– There is a major row between villagers and a mining project that the Chinese have an investment in. The copper mine, is a joint venture between China’s Wanbao company – a subsidiary of the arms manufacturer, Norinco – and the business arm of the Burmese military,People have badly hurt protesting against the US$1bn expansion of thr copper mine.

Corporate governance row continues in Indonesia

Coal miner Bumi has said it is unable to substantiate claims of potential financial and other irregularities at its Indonesian operations.

Bumi is facing a battle for control after agreeing to a shareholder vote that will decide the future of the majority of its board members.The vote will take place in February, at a date to be named.

Nathaniel Rothschild, co-founder of Bumi, had demanded the vote in an attempt to return to the firm’s board. Mr Rothschild wants to oust 12 of the 14 board members and bring in new ones in an effort to turn the firm around.

He had quit the board last year amid a row with Indonesia’s Bakrie family.

Bumi owns a stake in key Bakrie assets and there have been tensions between the two over potential irregularities at one of the Bakrie firms.

The dispute revolves around Bakries’ Indonesian firm PT Bumi Resources, in which Bumi owns a 29% stake.

Mr Rothschild had called for a radical clean-up at the firm in 2011, leading to relations between the two being soured. Last year, Bumi began an inquiry into what it said were “potential financial and other irregularities” at the firm.

Then, the Bakrie family offered to buy back its assets from Bumi for an estimated $1.4bn (£870m) and split from the firm.

However, Mr Rothschild said the proposal was “not in the interests of minority shareholders” and resigned from the board.

The deteriorating relations between the two key shareholders have stoked fears about the future of the firm and hurt its share price. Its shares have plunged more than 65% in the past 12 months.

Bumi has also been hurt by a drop in coal prices, which has hurt its earnings and forced it to review its expansion plans.

HSBC on Asean in 2013

“India, Indonesia and Vietnam stand to benefit most as they have large labour forces and strong domestic markets,” says HSBC on MNCs moving on from China because of rising wages and an appreciating yuan.

It also highlighted in a report last month political jockeying ahead of a presidential election in Indonesia in 2014; uncertainty over the outcome of a general election expected in Malaysia soon (the Opposition alliance is tot to have a chance of winning despite the strange combi of Islamists, connected to the Muslim Brudders in Egypt, who want to chop off heads and limbs, and a moderate Malay party, and a secular Chinese, Indian party)) ; and simmering political tensions in Thailand.

This puts netizens preoccupation with Punggol East in perspective: doesn’t matter in ASEAN context. And, dare I say it, in the local context too. Either PAP wins, or PAP Lite wins.

Asean round-up

Almost about the telco market in Burma, but there’s more after this Burmese stuff.

Taiwanese smartphone company HTC has become the latest to enter the largely untapped Burmese market, as the country opens up to foreign firms. HTC launched its smartphones in Burma on Monday. The phones will come with a Burmese language on-screen keyboard, which the company says is the most advanced available. Burma has one of the lowest mobile phone ownership levels in the world: in 2011, only 3% of the population had a mobile phone.

HTC is not the first smartphone maker to try to tap into the Burmese market. Samsung and Huawei lead the market with their low-cost devices. However, HTC is hoping to attract consumers with what it calls one of the most advanced Burmese language keyboards in the country.

Burma is also planning licence four more telco operators: invitations have been made to tender for two. The existing is govt-owned.

The expected bidders are: Russia’s VimpelCom, among the world’s top 10 mobile network operators in terms of subscribers; Telenor of Norway, a major shareholder in VimpelCom; Vietnam’s VNPT-Fujitsu, a joint-venture between Vietnam and Japan’s Fujitsu; Malaysia’s Axiata; and Digicel, the largest mobile operator in the Caribbean.

Local listco and mobile phone distributor mDr Ltd has incorporated a subsidiary in Burma. Itholds a 51% stake in MDR Myanmar while its local partners, Be-Well (Myanmar), Be-Well Corp and Avitar Enterprises, will hold 20, 20 and 9% respectively.

The new company, with a paid-up and issued capital of US$50,000, will provide after-sales services of telecommunication devices to consumers. It will also be involved in the mobile devices and accessories distribution and retail businesses via its provision of exclusive consultancy and retail franchisee procurement services to Myanmar-based Golden Myanmar Sea Co Ltd (GMS).

Thailand: a cheong too far? http://blogs.reuters.com/breakingviews/2013/01/16/thailands-unsustainable-boom-is-piling-up-risks/

Indon private equity firm on a roll: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-15/saratoga-seeks-consumer-deals-with-480-million-war-chest.html

Flooding caused by days of heavy rain has hit parts of the Indonesian capital, Jakarta, forcing businesses to close and blocking roads. Areas including the central business district (CBD) were inundated and traffic was grid-locked as residents struggled to move around the city.

Meanwhile there is a water shortage just south of KL.

Asean round-up

Gd news for SE Asia. China has reported better-than-expected trade data, adding to optimism that growth in the world’s second-largest economy may be rebounding.Exports, a key driver of expansion, rose 14.1% in December from a year earlier. Most analysts had forecast a figure closer to 4%.Imports also rose, climbing 6% and indicating stronger domestic demand.

The US has filed a complaint with the World Trade Organization (WTO) against Indonesia’s restrictions on imports of horticultural and animal products. BBC report. Other agricultural exporters like Australia and Thailand have been unhappy about Indonesia’s restrictions too.

Thailand is considering measures to help companies cope with the country’s rise in the minimum wage (35% up from level of last year), but has rejected business warnings of job losses, factory closures and a shift by some manufacturers to neighbouring countries

Thailand’s central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.75% on Wednesday, as expected, saying the global economy continued to recover while growth this year could be higher than thought and inflation was stable.

The International Monetary Fund has warned that a credit boom in Cambodia poses a threat to economic growth. Banks have been cutting interest rates to win customers and private sector credit has increased by almost a third in the past 12 months, the fund said.

A $US200m deal with Masan Group by KKR is the largest by a private equity firm so far in Vietnam. It comes in addition to an earlier $159 million investment by KKR. Masan is Vietnam’s leading fish, soya and chilli sauce producer. As well as sauces Masan makes instant foods such as noodles, cereals and coffees. The firm estimates that 90% of local households use its products.http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20954875

Japan was in talks with the Philippines on Thursday to enhance maritime co-operation amid their separate territorial rows with China.

“We talked about the challenges that we appear to be facing in view of the assertions being made by China,” Philippine Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario told reporters after meeting with his Japanese counterpart, Fumio Kishida, in Manila.

Part of the co-operation may include 10 new patrol vessels from Japan to boost the Philippine coast guard, as well as communication equipment, Mr Del Rosario said.

ASEAN country of 2012 & 2013

Burma continued along its reform path in 2012, holding elections that returned Aung San Suu Kyi to parliament. The Lady was allowed to travel abroad for the first time in 24 years; Barack Obama became the first American president to visit Burma. But the good news was marred, however, by deadly ethnic rioting between local Buddhists and Rohingya Muslims in Rakhine state.

If the reforms continue, great for the country and investors and bizmen.

Privately owned newspapers are to be allowed in Burma from April 2013 for the first time in almost 50 years, the government announced late last week

Jappo banks step up presence in ASEAN region

This week:

– Mitsubishi UFJ (MUFJ), Japan’s biggest bank, bought a 20%  stake worth US$743m  in state-owned VietinBank, the largest-ever merger or acquisition deal in Vietnam’s banking sector. The deal aims to boost “support for Japanese companies operating in Vietnam”, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ president Nobuyuki Hirano said, and to tap South-east Asian markets; after seeing its profits tumble this year, like other Jappo banks.

The Japanese bank last month reported profit in the six months to September dived 58 per cent year on year to US$3.6 billion, due partly to declines in stock holdings.

VietinBank, or Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Industry and Trade, said State Bank of Vietnam will still own the majority of its shares. For the record, it is Vietnam’s second largest bank by asseys.

– SMFG said it plans to expand its consumer finance business to target the growing middle classes in South-east Asia.

The new Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere?

BANZAI!

No ASEAN round-up this hols week.

Indons no “hue” UK governance rules

UK Takeover Panel is asking questions of Bakries and another Indon investor in Bumi for time being can only vote 29.9% of their shares.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/dec/19/nat-rothschild-bumi-resume-conflict

 

Asean round-up

“President Thein Sein of Burma is The Straits Times’ inaugural Asian of the Year. Mr Thein Sein, 67, was chosen by top editors of this newspaper for his role in making his country oosening political and economic controls in Myanmar. This has led to democracy icon and Nobel Peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi taking a seat in Parliament, the lifting of Western sanctions and a surge of investor interest in the once-reclusive nation.”

Constructive, nation-building ST at its best. LKY’s remarks about Burmese generals (they are stupid) and PM’s public row with the Burmese govt few yrs back means that TLCs, GLCs and ordinary S’porean cos are finding it difficult to get the goodies in Burma, unlike the Thai, US, Brit, EU companies. So ST trying to improve relations. BTW, the Lady’s team has no time for S’pore too. S’pore upset both sides. George Yeo’s fault.

The Teletubbies, 24-hour news and Doctor Who are being introduced to Burma as the BBC launches three pay-TV channels there next January.

KKR has achieved its goal of raising $6bn for its new Asia fund making it the largest such regional fund.

AirAsia is eating SIA’s lunch

(And that of every other Asian legacy airline like Cathay, Qantas, Thai and MAS)

When SIA sold to Delta its 49% stake in Virgin Atlantic for US$360, which it has owned since 1999, it said it was selling because of increased competition in its local market, where it wants to keep its focus.

In the same week, last week, AirAsia announced a US$9bn order for 100 A320 planes. AirAsias’s order is for 64 of the A320neo (new engine option) and 36 of the A320ceo (current engine option) aircraft.

M’sia Boleh!

Background info on SIA sale, so I don’t get dumb comments

http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/12/11/singaporeairlines-virgin-sale-idINDEE8BA09V20121211

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20576420

Asean round-up

The government in Burma has apologised to Buddhist monks for the injuries sustained during a police operation outside a copper mine two weeks ago.

Indons love their Blackberries (still): now they can transfer money to one another using their Blackberries. Maybe some rich Indon should save RIM, Blackberries’ manufacturer.

The BTS Group, a Thai elevated-railway operator, is looking to raise at least US$1.5 billion through an I.P.O. of its infrastructure fund, “which would make it the country’s largest-ever I.P.O.,” WALL STREET JOURNAL 

Iskandar getting desperate: want our SMEs. One time, see our SMEs no ak. Only wanted MNCs, TLCs and Arabs.

Malaysian billionaire Quek Leng Chan, who owns 75% of the HK-listed Guoco Group, offered to take the company private for about US$1.1 billion, WALL STREET JOURNAL 

 

Good-bye Kra canal, Hello Thai-Burmese highway

Burma and Thailand want to build a highway linking a to-be built port in Burma to a port in Thailand. This will enable cargo to by-pass the congested Malacca Straits.

Will this remain a dream like the Kra canal, then the Kra oil pipeline? I suspect not as there are benefits for Thailand and Burma.

Might even attract TLCs: there will be a need for industrial and logistic parks.

As for the Straits of Malacca as a shipping lane? Well the development of the US inter-continental port, highway rail system to move containers from the West Coast to the East, hasn’t affected the traffic using the  Panama Canal. It is being enlarged to take bigger ships.

Asean round-up

The Philippines economy grew 31.5% more than forecast in the third quarter, boosted by increased consumer and government spending and a recovery in exports.

Following violent anti-govt protests at the weekend, Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, on Wednesday, easily survived a no-confidence vote. She was accused her of failing to crack down on corruption.

The actions against this protest shows that the changes in Burma are still a work-in-progress. The protest also highlights China’s growing image problems amid intensifying local opposition to its extensive natural resources and infrastructure projects. In fact, one of the reasons why the generals opened up was their fear of Chinese domination.

“Najib said the 13th general election would be the decisive point for the future of the country and the people should be able to judge for themselves the advantage of choosing BN over the opposition.” (CNA). Actually what he means is that it determines his wife’s position as FLOM: First Lady of M’sia. LOL. She gets heself called FLOM, even though she is not the queen. Non-parisan analysts don’t expect Bn to lose power, but neither do they expect BN to regain its two-thirds majority in parliament, UMNO’s holy grail. If Najib can’t deliver this, there will be a new PM.

Why it’s a gd time for Najib to call a GE

Monday’s newspapers reported that Najib was hinting on Sunday that he would an election in December. Tuesday’s papers quoted analysts as saying it was a bad idea because the rains will make campaigning dificulty.

The analysts are missing the point. The sooner he calls an election the better for him because when the Chinese and Indian and more secular Malays watch CNN, Al Jazeera or BBC, they will see how the Egyptians are repenting (see pics) the election of a member of the Muslim Brotherhood as Egypt’s president. The Arab spring overthrew a president who ruled like a pharaoh. The Brudderhood president has just assumed pharaohnic powers: a decree, issued last week, said

– no authority could revoke presidential decisions;

– judges cannot dissolve the assembly drawing up a new constitution; and

– the president is also authorised to take any measures to preserve the revolution, national unity or safeguard national security.

Is this what change Muslim Brudderhood style is what about is a question relevant to M’sian voters.

By voting for DAP and PKR (Anwar’s gang) the Indians, Chinese and secular Malays know that they could be strengthening the hand of PAS, a branch of the Muslim Brudderhood, a party that has just called for the choppin- off of limbs as punishment for certain crimes.  The scenes in Egypt should remind them that they want change, not chaos or an Islamic dictator. BN’s message should be simple: better the corrupt devils you know, rather than chaos or an Islamic despot.

EPL available in Burma

Burma’s SkyNet has bought TV rights for the English Premier league football games. It will show all the matches in the next two seasons.

Wow I didn’t realise that the Burmese too follow EPL teams.

 

Asean round-up

This week, shares in Universal Entertainment, a Jap co fell on reports that one of its affiliates made illegal payments to an associate of the former head of the Philippine gaming regulator.

Last Tuesday, it was reported that Thailand’s economy has slowed in the third quarter after weak global demand dented exports to the US and Europe.Gross domestic product increased by 3% in the three months to the end of September from a year earlier. That is down from 4.4% in the second quarter. Analysts expect growth to pick up in the coming months as domestic demand offsets weaker foreign sales. Thailand’s GDP increased by 1.2% when calculated on a quarter-on-quarter basis, slightly more than many analysts had forecasted.

Carrefour sell Indonesian Operations for US$672.7m. Another French biz bites the dust in region. French car makers rarely sell cars in the region, and major French banks have ceased providing US$ trade financing.

And fly AirAsia at yr own risk? The M’sian authorities have renewed its safety licence for only six months, instead of the usual one year. More probably, shaking mgt for money? Elections are coming.

And talking of elections, Indian and Chinese voters will be most “daft” to vote for PK. While Anwar’s gang and DAP are secular parties, PAS is a branch of the Muslim Brudderhood. Not only do the Brudderhood want to cut-off limbs and ban partying, but in Egypt it has just reinstated a regime based on a presidency that  has the powers of a pharaoh: something that secular Egyptians died to overthrow just over a year ago.

Indons buys S’pore telco biz

Indonesian private equity firm Northstar Group is expanding into take-private deals, agreeing to buy a majority stake in Singapore-listed Nera Telecommunications and offering to buy the entire company for around US$146m

Norway’s Eltek ASA said it has agreed to sell its 50.1% in Nera to Northstar, part-owned by TPG Capital, a major US private equity firm for S$88.8 m  (US$72.6 mn) or S$0.49 a share. Northstar will extend the same offer for the remaining shares in a mandatory unconditional cash offer.