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Posts Tagged ‘Mapletree’

Lesson for our SWFs

In Corporate governance, GIC, Temasek on 17/02/2011 at 9:18 am

I’ve ranted at how Temasek and GIC allowed investment banks to short change them (and us) in two IPOs:  the share prices traded way above IPO price on listing,

Well it’s nice to see that the Indonesians screwed the investment banks over the Garuda IPO, the share price falling 20% below IPO price, with the underwriters stuck with abt half of the shares,

Now I’m not saying that our SWFs should play that rough with the investment banks — there will be adverse consequences for Garuda when it tries to raise more money and the Indonesian authorities when they try to sell other companies — but our SWFs should try to keep the premiums to around 5%. It’s hard, but they shld try.

CitySpring Infrastructure Trust: a TLC dog with fleas

In Infrastructure on 08/12/2010 at 5:21 am

As regular vistors to this blog will know, I’m a sucker for yield and NAV plays. So I was starting to think abt CitySpring Infrastructure Trust which offers a prospective yield of abt 7%. It is also a Temasek-linked trust and could possibly be trading at a discount to NAV.  An investing sweet spot.

Fortunately before I even got to reading up the basic data on the trust, I chanced across a Kim Eng Eng Research report dated 30 November, which called the trust a ” sell”.

To forestall a credit rating downgrade of the three bonds issued by Basslink, CitySpring Infrastructure will set aside A$20 million (S$25.4 million) in an escrow account for this asset before next January. Although this move may resolve the CreditWatch placement by Standard & Poor’s (S&P), a capital structure plan involving an equity cash call seems inevitable in our view. So, while the forward yield of 7.1 per cent based on the previous DPU guidance appears compelling, there is no denying the risk of dilution.

… The bonds, worth a total of A$866 million, face a potential ratings downgrade that will trigger a cash lock-up at Basslink and affect CitySpring’s distribution policy … CitySpring will still need to submit a capital structure plan that will satisfy S&P’s stringent risk assessment. It plans to do so by next September. As one of the options, Basslink’s cash flow may be applied to reduce debt … A capital structure plan involving an equity recapitalisation seems highly possible in our view, given the presence of other debt obligations, such as the $142 million corporate loan due in August 2011 and the $130 million City Gas loan due in 2012. Even if Basslink continues to pay a distribution, unit-holders’ yield may still suffer a dilution.

We cut our DPU forecasts for FY March 2012 and onwards from 4.2 cents to three cents to factor in the removal of Basslink’s contribution. Our TP is lowered to $0.52, reflecting our assumption of a capital injection of $100 million to reduce gearing. Downgrade to ‘sell’.

Looks like the perfect storm. And I’ve found out that it’s last reported NAV is 0.34cents.

But I’ll monitor the trust, waiting for the capital raising exercise which I agree must come. It might then be like AIMAMP industrial reit or Fraser Commercial* — gd yields and discount to NAV to compensate for the overhang of units created by the rights issue. BTW, for waz it’s worth, I read in Monday’s ST that OCBC’s reit analyst and DBS’s  head of asset-backed structured product like industrial and office reits.

Investors in the Mapletree s-reits may want bear in mind that this trust was once a high-flying investment trading way above NAV, and giving gd yields. Until it the managers went walkabout in Oz Outback. Being part of the Temasek stable doesn’t mean that one can “close eyes and buy and hold”.

*office and malls (here and in Oz)

Calling all Muslims

In Property, S'pore Inc, Temasek on 01/12/2010 at 5:57 am

Sabana Reit needs yr help.

This is the first Shariah-compliant reit listed on the Singapore exchange (SGX), and the world’s largest listed Shariah-compliant reit by total assets. Looks like analysts were wrong to expect Sabana to attract Middle Eastern investors saying there are not many such Shariah-compliant REITs in Asia ( M’sia has three, and this is all it seems). Either they got no money, or there are more attractive investments elsewhere or in more lucrative products.

At yesterday’s closing price of 0.97  its first yr projected yield is now slightly more than the 8.22% at the IPO price of price of 1.05.

But it trades only at a “peanuts” 2 cents  above NAV of 0.99 in cash. But the properties to be injected in will only give an NAV of the 0.99.

For the time, being this infidel prefers AIMSAMP industrial reit which trades at a yield of 9.5% and an 18% discount to last published NAV. True gearing is at 35% versus Sabana’s 25%,: but the former has big Aussie insurer AMP as big brother, and the latter can only “borrow” from a limited number of “lenders” and via complicated structures. And I don’t have enough info to make judgements on its big brothers.

BTW looks like Temasek’s Mapletree industrial reit  has beaten this Shariah-compliant industrial reit performance-wise in IPO terms. They IPOed within weeks of each other recently.

Moral of the tale for pious folk of any religion: God may rule in heaven but on SGX, investors prefer to invest in a Temasek-linked reit, rather than a religious-compliant reit. The blasphemous (not I) may want to shout, “Harry rules OK” or “In S’pore, God takes advice from MightyMind”.

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