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Posts Tagged ‘Noble’

Commodity prices are close to the bottom of the cycle?

In Commodities, Indonesia, Malaysia on 10/04/2014 at 4:23 am

FT reported on April 3 that traders in an annual commodities seminar are getting bullish.

And this appeared earlier this yr

GROWTH has slowed in China, the destination of most of the world’s exports of iron ore, copper and other metals, as well as increasing quantities of oil and corn. Many analysts have declared that the China-driven commodities “supercycle” has run out of steam. But that may be premature. While global population growth is slowing, the number of people added each year is still increasing. Similarly, China’s economy will be 65% bigger in 2014 than it was in 2008. Macquarie, a bank, reckons that the growth of global demand for steel will slip to 3.1% a year between 2012 and 2018, compared with 3.3% in the previous six-year period, but that in absolute terms it will go from 45m tonnes a year to 50m tonnes a year. The same trend will apply to copper, aluminium, nickel, lead, zinc and tin. In terms of its impact on demand, Chinese growth of 7.5% today is the equivalent to 12% growth in 2008. On top of this there is growth from other Asian economies and the recovery of the American economy. The pace of increase in commodity prices may not match that of yesteryear, but the next upward climb looks set to start in 2014. See full article.

Related article:

Materials (Sector Equity)

  • The materials sector has fallen out of favour with investors in 2013, with the MSCI AC World Materials Sector index gaining just 0.3% (in SGD terms) last year.
  • Similar to the situation with the global financials sector in 2008/2009, massive write-downs have been undertaken by the sector; while this has reduced net asset values of resource companies, it also makes valuations (on a PB basis) more conservative.
  • As a beneficiary of a global economic recovery, we believe the conservatively valued materials sector may emerge as a “dark horse” this year.
  • Our recommended fund for global resources equities: First State Glb Resources

https://secure.fundsupermart.com/main/article/Idea-Week-Capture-Investment-Opportunities-2014-9073

SunT sometime back (sometime last yr) had a bullish piece. http://www.cpf.gov.sg/imsavvy/infohub_article.asp?readid={27464576-17202-5110879539} Either ahead of the the curve, too early or clueless. LOL. What do you think?

If palm oil, rubber and energy cheong gd for Indonesia, M’sia and Thailand (rubber), and for some SGX counters. Think Olam, Noble and the plantation stocks for starters. And think property developers: think esp CapitaLand. Exposure here and in China.

Noble: Time to cheong?

In China, Commodities on 08/04/2014 at 4:25 am

Well depends on whether COFCO will run the joint venture as a commercial entity.

The structure allows Noble to reduce its exposure to an underperforming business while sharing in any recovery. The prospect of a deal had already fuelled a 25 percent rally in Noble’s shares in the past month, lifting its market value to around $6.5 billion. The proceeds could be reinvested in Noble’s better-performing energy and resources businesses. And because Noble will no longer have to include the venture’s $2.5 billion of net debt on its balance sheet, its headline borrowings will roughly halve, according to Eikon.

For Noble investors, the lingering worry is whether or not COFCO, which is already China’s main wheat importer, will run the joint venture as a commercial entity. The involvement of China-focused private-equity group HOPU in the Noble deal offers some comfort. So does China Investment Corporation’s 14 percent stake in Noble, which it has owned since 2009. If China does decide to squeeze Noble, it shouldn’t do so too hard.

http://blogs.reuters.com/breakingviews/2014/04/02/noble-china-joint-venture-still-faces-market-test/

At a recent conference, Yusuf Alireza, the chief executive of Noble, talked business models: “None of us should be arrogant to assume one model is right and one model is wrong . . . from a Noble perspective, our core competence is in the middle part of the supply chain . . . We are not miners, we are not farmers, we are not a bank.”

Noble’s into base metals with a Latin beat

In Commodities, Energy, Logistics on 30/08/2012 at 6:41 am

The search for base metals will likely focus on major producing regions such as South America … It is also one of the few merchants still doing business in Venezuela, where the aluminum industry is in crisis.

Noble already has an array of iron ore and coal offtake deals and strength in alumina and aluminum through tolling deals. Last December, it signed a pact to supply a smelter in Azerbijan with alumina in return for aluminum output.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/26/noble-basemetals-expansion-idUSL2E8JHMDE20120826

Stock could fly again but its up against shume big mean boys. And is the founder still active in mgt? And if so gd or bad for co?

More bad news for Noble, Olam and Wilmar

In China, Commodities, Logistics on 21/05/2012 at 5:48 am

The FT reports that Chinese importers are requesting trading houses to defer shipments of commodities. Sometimes they have broken agreements by refusing to accept deliveries.

Commodities specifically mentioned are iron ore and thermal coal (Noble’s specialities), cotton (Olam speciality) and soyabeans (Wilmar is world’s boiggest crusher). No wonder the price of these stocks keep weakening.

BTW, until I read below, I didn’t realise Noble is a big player in coffee and cocoa (but revenue is “peanuts” compared to iron ore and energy).

http://seekingalpha.com/article/572831-commodity-trading-firms-bunge-and-noble-offer-investors-good-value

CIMB bearish on commodity supply chain stocks

In Commodities on 12/09/2011 at 7:07 am

CIMB doesn’t like commodity plays and has made negative comments abt midstream commodity supply chain players Mewah, Noble and Olam.

Not time to buy yet: Noble is trading at its eight-year historical mean, while Olam is trading at 1.5 standard deviations below its mean and Mewah is trading at 2.5 standard deviations below mean. Despite their more modest valuations, we believe it is too early to turn bullish on this sector. Consensus estimates do not appear to have fully reflected their earnings risks, in our view. Our FY12 earnings per share estimates for all three stocks are 4-46 per cent below consensus. Further downgrades by the Street may be de-rating catalysts.

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