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Posts Tagged ‘Tan Cheng Bock’

The financially savviest PE candidate of them all

In Financial competency, Political governance on 05/11/2011 at 4:08 pm

With the PM’s talk of a global financial crisis worse than that of 2008; and with three of the four presidential canidates having financial credentials (one an ex- banker, finance minister and SWF executive director; another an actuary and retired insurance CEO, and the third an “investment adviser”, I tot it would be fun to analyse their presidential election performance in terms of one indicator of financial savviness: see table below).

Tan Jee Say (the “investment adviser”, previously a senior civil servant with a background in economic policy, investment banker and fund manager, who, when he first entered politics this year, called himself an “investor”) was the most effective campaigner in $ terms in the presidential election. But among the four candidates, he flunked badly the first rule of high finance: “use other people’s money”. He had the most self-funding to do percentage-wise, 78.41%. He only got donations amounting to 21.59% of what he spent. TJS had the courage to spend what it takes to run an effective campaign, but he sure is no expert in using other people’s money.

The People’s Voice ,Tan Kin Lian (actuary and retired CEO of an insurer), wanted $2m a year in presidential salary, but was only willing to spend other people’s money, not his own to campaign. He was even trying to get donors to fund his deposit (Knew would lose deposit?).  But he ended up in second place to TJS when it came to self-funding, percentage-wise. Right attitude, incompetent execution.

Tony Tan has his presidential salary to console himself for having to spend the most (in absolute terms)  from his own pocket,$165070. His many endorsements (especially from the unions) didn’t result in much money. Could this show the meanness and insincerity of those S’poreans who “endorsed” him? Or that they are a bunch of cheap skates?

Tan Cheng Bock MD can console himself for his very narrow loss by congratulating himself for doing better than the financial experts. He outspent everybody else by a big margin, but did it largely on other people’s money. He spent $60424.65 of his own money, only 10.33% of his total campaign expenses. TKL spent more of his own money (in absolute terms) than TCB.

“Tan Cheng Bock Ho Say Le”.  Read the rest of this entry »

Who was the most effective campaigner in the 2011 PE?

In Political governance on 05/10/2011 at 8:34 pm

Table 1 below shows that the most effective campaigner dollar-wise is investnment adviser, Tan Jee Say. For each dollar he spent, he got 3.31 votes and he spent only 30 cents for each vote he got.

The most ineffective campaigner dollar-wise was ex-NTUC Income CEO, Tan Kin Lian. Taking into account his forfeited deposit of $48,000, for each dollar he spent he only got 0.88 of a vote, and he spent $1.14 for each vote he received.

As to the two Doctor Tans, Tan Cheng Bock’s numbers showed he was a lavish spender vis-a-vis the winner (and everyone else): see Table 2. He spent 42.7% of all monies spent (including TKL’s forfeited deposit) but only got 34.85% of all the valid votes cast. By contrast, Tony Tan spent 36.7% of all monies spent but got 35.2% of the valid votes cast. Table 2 below also shows how effective TJS spent his money. He spent only 11.85% of all monies spent but got 25.04% of all the valid votes cast. Read the rest of this entry »

The losing Tans: What they now doing?

In Political governance on 02/10/2011 at 7:07 am

As its Sunday, thought regular readers might like to read the gossip making the rounds of the chattering coffee-house classes. Take u/m with a large pinch of salt as its all based on hearsay, much of it secondhand.   

Dr Tan Cheng Bock is not planning to form a new party. He is believed to be advising  Benjamin Pwee and other SPP members who helped him in his recent presidential campaign. He is helping them plan the transition from brand Chiam, and how to get support in Western S’pore, his territory. Tony Tan came second in the West. Tan Jee Say and Tan Kin Lian were nowhere to be seen.

Hopefully,  the Chiams are onside on these issues. Otherwise, the SPP will die when Chiam departs from the stage. Mrs Chiam is a very capable grassroot activist. But she is no leader of a political party, few people are.

Tan Jee Say “has plans to build up a coalition of forces, reaching out to those dissatisfied with the ruling party. He did not give details as to which party he intends to join”. He is keeping open the possibility of setting up a new party. The rumour is that Michelle Lim and Dr Ang Yong Guan will resign from the SDP and join the new party. That they are not on the mgt commitee of the SDP is taken as a sign of them wanting to leave.

People close to Nicole Seah, celebrity superstar, and  Jeannette Chong Aruldoss both on the NSP mgt committee, deny that these two ladies will join the new party. But with the rumours of tension in the NSP leadership (most of the mgt didn’t turn up at the birthday party of the NSP’s Malay Bureau), the speculation is they may jump ship. Superstar Nicole has also been criticised by long-time NSP cadres for being TJS’s polling agent.

But if they jumped party again, they would look like fickle, airhead bimbos. They joined NSP from RP only before the May GE, and they had joined RP only last year.

People who know but don’t like TJS say that all this talk of unifying the Opposition shows he is trying to leave politics gracefully. But then, these same guys said he applied for the COE because he wanted to leave the SDP gracefully. They said he thought he wouldn’t get it but kanna played-out. But whatever the truth, he fought hard and wisely, unlike Tan Kin Lian who fought hard but not wisely.

TKL is still makes pronouncements on public issues on his FaceBook page and blog site. But less and less people are visiting the sites. People close to him say he still feels the hurt of being rejected by voters and losing $48,000 and more of his own money. They also say he is in denial abt his defeat, refusing to accept that his campaign was badly run, and hence accident prone. He still thinks he could have been president, but for the Yahoo! survey and TJS.

Easy & cost-free way of uniting S’poreans

In Political governance on 09/09/2011 at 7:07 am

The president and PM have called for unity.

 The PM for the fifth time. Read my take on his call.

Well since about 7,000 votes separated the winner of the presidential election from the runner-up, one easy and popular way of making the 35% of voters that voted for the runner-up happy and contented is for the PM and president to announce that one of them is offering to appoint Dr Tan Cheng Bock as a member of the presidential council. Remember the government and the president (at his personal discretion) can each appoint two persons to the council.

This will show the 35% of the electorate that voted for Dr Tan Cheng Bock that their views matter.

If the PM is wily, he will offer to appoint Tan Jee Say to the council, thereby making about another 25% of the electorate happy that the government recognises their voices. Whether it would be wise for TJS to accept is another matter.

The only reason why no offer will be made is that the PAP and the government (and the president has been in both) has a mindset that has problems distinguishing between “popular” actions and “popularism”. They seem to think that the words are synonymous. They hate “popularism” because by definition it is opposed to rule by the elite. Fair enough but then they think that being popular is being a populist.

Worse they think that the way to go is to do “unpopular” things. Witness LKY’s boast of not doing popular things to win elections, and Philip Yeo saying,”My greatest fear now is that the government is terrified of the people. You cannot have a system where the people are pampered.”

So while I hope Dr Tan will be appointed to the presidential council, I won’t hold my breath. As to Tan Jee Say being offered an appointment, pigs will fly first, even though there are advantages to the PAP and government offering him an appointment. Offering him an appointment, will be a poisoned chalice. He is damned either way. If he refuses, the label “confrontationalist” can be attached to him by the government and PAP. If he accepts, his ex-SDP pals will unfriend him for selling out.

As to PM’s “reinvented” PAP, I’ll acknowlege it when I see it.

“Divining tonite’s results”: where it all went wrong

In Political governance on 29/08/2011 at 6:45 am

This http://atans1.wordpress.com/2011/08/27/divining-tonites-results/, was written on the morning of 27th August. The predictions of the various percentages went badly wrong, but the conclusions (see below) didn’t.

But first where the divination methods let me down badly. The two Drs between them only got 70% of the votes cast , not the 85% divinated. They only got between them the 35% of the electorate that will vote for any donkey, so long as it is a PAP donkey, and 35 percentage points of the sheep (swing voters who constitute 45% of the total votes). TT must have got all the donkey votes and TCB all but 10 percentage points of sheep votes.

Anyway, did get it right that it was too close to call between the two Dr Tans.

Tot that the ass vote (20% of the electorate) would be be split between TKL and TJS. TJS got all the ass votes (any ass so long as it is an Opposition ass). To great surprise, 5 percentage points of the sheep supported him. Had tot that no sheep would vote for a former SDP candidate. But then Nicole Seah supported him. Young sheep adore her.

Right in thinking that TKL would lose his deposit, but didn’t expect any sheep to vote for him. But it would seem he got his votes (5% of the total votes)  from the sheep. Must be super daft sheep.

Very, very wrong in thinking that 5 percentage points of the asses would vote for Dr Tan Cheng Bock. They remained solidly in the TJS camp. Tot that not all asses were daft, was wrong.

Finally an even bigger majority, 65%, are not happy with PM, not the 50ish% predicted.

Conclusion

PM better wake up his his ideas. The majority of S;poreans are unhappy about the

– unjustified commuter fare rise;

– repeated failures to secure MRT carriages and depots;

– attempts to tell us how we should vote on 27 August;

– Central Mediation Centre’s and MinLaw’s refusal to tell FTs that they are guests here, not our overlords, and must tolerate our culture and eating habits; and

– continued fixing of the Opposition by the PA (a government agency of which he is the chairman).

The vast majority of S’poreans are too smart to buy into the Kin Lians and Jee Says of this world. They know when people talk rubbish.

The vast majority of S’poreans are conservatives.

Brand PAP is toxic.

Mandate for PM to carry on fixing?

In Political governance, Wit on 28/08/2011 at 8:33 am

If I were a PAP spin doctor (which regrettably I’m not, they pay very well while I only have my CPF and dividend income to live on), this is how I’d spin Tony Tan’s very narrow win over Cheng Bock (7,000 votes*) with only 35% of all the votes cast and Jee Say’s good showing (30%?)**.

During the 2011 General Election, the PAP only got 60% of the popular vote. The Opposition got between them 40%. During the presidential election, the two candidates that had only just resigned from the PAP, got between them 70% of the votes. This is 10 percentage points more than the PAP got during the GE.

Not only that, but Kin Lian, the PAP member who resigned several yrs ago when his job specification no longer needed him to be a PAP member, and who has since been attacking the party, did badly. He may even lose his deposit***. It could be spun that S’poreans don’t like PAP traitors espec9ally those that did well from being PAP members. He was CEO of NTUC Income for 30 yrs.

So the PM can reasonably argue that he has a mandate from 70% of the voters to use government agencies to fix the Opposition something the PA (where he is chairman) and the HDB did in Aljunied. And he can allow:

– every TLC, or, or government department or agency to raise their charges until the pips squeak;

– LTA and SMRT to get away with repeated failures to secure MRT carriages and depots; and

– Central Mediation Centre and MinLaw to continue telling FTs that FTs can be intolerant of our culture and eating habits.

Carry on as usual PM, 70% of S’poreans are on yr side. Sigh.

Update on 28August 2011 at 9.25am

*7,269 to be precise

**25%

***lost his deposit with only 4.9% of the vote.

Divining tonite’s results

In Political governance on 27/08/2011 at 7:04 am

(Update on 28 August 2011, 7.15am –My divination methods let me down badly. The two Drs between them only got 70% of the votes cast , not the 85% I expected.

I also got wrong the belief that the swing voters would not vote TJS, abt 10% seems to have done so. I was very wrong in thinking that 5 percentage points of the asses would vote for Dr Tan Cheng Bock. They remained solidly in the TJS/  TKL camps.

What I got right — TKL could lose his deposit, and my conclusions. It’s even worse for PM. Bigger majority, abt 65%, not happy with him, not the 50ish% I predicted.)

Assumptions

35% of the voters will vote for any donkey so long as it is a PAP donkey; 20% of the voters will vote for any Opposition ass if it is an Opposition ass; and the remaining 45% are the sheep who think they can think for themselves.

Predictions

The two doctors will between the two of them get 85% of the votes. The donkeys and mules will vote for either of them, and 5 percentage points of the asses will vote for Dr Tan Cheng Bock. The result will be a close one, with neither of the doctors getting an absolute majority of the total votes cast by the animals.  I hope TCB wins but it’s only a hope. Dr Tony Tan could win.

The remaining asses will vote for either Tan Jee Say or Tan Kin Lian. It is very highly probable that TKL will lose his deposit. But TJS could also lose his deposit.

Conclusion

PM better wake up his his ideas. The majority of S;poreans are unhappy about the

– unjustified commuter fare rise;

– repeated failures to secure MRT carriages and depots;

– attempts to tell us how we should vote on 27 August;

– Central Mediation Centre’s and MinLaw’s refusal to tell FTs that they are guests here, not our overlords, and must tolerate our culture and eating habits; and

– continued fixing of the Opposition by the PA (a government agency of which he is the chairman).

The vast majority of S’poreans are too smart to buy into the Kin Lians and Jee Says of this world. They know when people talk rubbish.

The vast majority of S’poreans are conservatives.

Brand PAP is toxic.

Why S’poreans must unite and send another message to PM

In Political governance on 26/08/2011 at 7:37 am

Since 27 August is only a few days after the 100th day of PM’s cabinet being sworn in, we should use that day to tell the PM that we will not tolerate the:

– unjustified commuter fare rise;

– repeated failures to secure MRT carriages and depots;

– attempts to tell us how we should vote on 27 August;

– Central Mediation Centre’s and MinLaw’s refusal to tell FTs that they are guests here, not our overlords, and must tolerate our culture and eating habits; and

– continued fixing of the Opposition by the PA (a government agency of which he is the chairman).

TJS and TKL supporters, please vote with yr minds, not yr hearts. Do you seriously think yr candidate can win?

You may hate Dr Tan Cheng Bock, but hold yr noses and vote for the Tan that swing voter mules (45%) are most comfortable with,  and who is not the preferred candidate of the PAP.

PAP supporters, by not voting for Tony Tan you will help those members of the CEC who want the party to change. Remember the PM has said he will work with the winner, but do you want the winner to be TKL or TJS? TCB was until recently one of the MIW.

Anyway Tony Tan is meant for bigger things (like returning to GIC). The presidency is too small for him.

S’poreans vote tactically. Vote for the Tan who the PAP doesn’t want to win but who is not a radical or a friend of the SDP and Dr Chee, or who is from the Dark Side, pretending to be the “People’s Voice”.

Vote for Dr Tan Cheng Bock, the guy who wants to unite us thru footie and multiracialim. OK even I  admit this is corny. But at the very least, he is not the candidate of choice of the PAP, or Dr Chee and the SDP, or of Goh Meng Seng or the NSP.

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