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Posts Tagged ‘Tony Tan’

The financially savviest PE candidate of them all

In Financial competency, Political governance on 05/11/2011 at 4:08 pm

With the PM’s talk of a global financial crisis worse than that of 2008; and with three of the four presidential canidates having financial credentials (one an ex- banker, finance minister and SWF executive director; another an actuary and retired insurance CEO, and the third an “investment adviser”, I tot it would be fun to analyse their presidential election performance in terms of one indicator of financial savviness: see table below).

Tan Jee Say (the “investment adviser”, previously a senior civil servant with a background in economic policy, investment banker and fund manager, who, when he first entered politics this year, called himself an “investor”) was the most effective campaigner in $ terms in the presidential election. But among the four candidates, he flunked badly the first rule of high finance: “use other people’s money”. He had the most self-funding to do percentage-wise, 78.41%. He only got donations amounting to 21.59% of what he spent. TJS had the courage to spend what it takes to run an effective campaign, but he sure is no expert in using other people’s money.

The People’s Voice ,Tan Kin Lian (actuary and retired CEO of an insurer), wanted $2m a year in presidential salary, but was only willing to spend other people’s money, not his own to campaign. He was even trying to get donors to fund his deposit (Knew would lose deposit?).  But he ended up in second place to TJS when it came to self-funding, percentage-wise. Right attitude, incompetent execution.

Tony Tan has his presidential salary to console himself for having to spend the most (in absolute terms)  from his own pocket,$165070. His many endorsements (especially from the unions) didn’t result in much money. Could this show the meanness and insincerity of those S’poreans who “endorsed” him? Or that they are a bunch of cheap skates?

Tan Cheng Bock MD can console himself for his very narrow loss by congratulating himself for doing better than the financial experts. He outspent everybody else by a big margin, but did it largely on other people’s money. He spent $60424.65 of his own money, only 10.33% of his total campaign expenses. TKL spent more of his own money (in absolute terms) than TCB.

“Tan Cheng Bock Ho Say Le”.  Read the rest of this entry »

Who was the most effective campaigner in the 2011 PE?

In Political governance on 05/10/2011 at 8:34 pm

Table 1 below shows that the most effective campaigner dollar-wise is investnment adviser, Tan Jee Say. For each dollar he spent, he got 3.31 votes and he spent only 30 cents for each vote he got.

The most ineffective campaigner dollar-wise was ex-NTUC Income CEO, Tan Kin Lian. Taking into account his forfeited deposit of $48,000, for each dollar he spent he only got 0.88 of a vote, and he spent $1.14 for each vote he received.

As to the two Doctor Tans, Tan Cheng Bock’s numbers showed he was a lavish spender vis-a-vis the winner (and everyone else): see Table 2. He spent 42.7% of all monies spent (including TKL’s forfeited deposit) but only got 34.85% of all the valid votes cast. By contrast, Tony Tan spent 36.7% of all monies spent but got 35.2% of the valid votes cast. Table 2 below also shows how effective TJS spent his money. He spent only 11.85% of all monies spent but got 25.04% of all the valid votes cast. Read the rest of this entry »

Who is the Opposition Kingmaker?

In Uncategorized on 23/09/2011 at 7:00 am

Following this year’s two elections, I could reasonably argue that the core PAP vote (any donkey even if it is Tin Pei Ling, so long as it is a PAP donkey) is 35%, the core anti-PAP vote is 30% (any ass even an SDA ass, so long as it is an anti-PAP ass) and the remaining 35% are the Animal Farm sheep aka the swinger voters. 

(I’ve not used the term  “Opposition” because all the Opposition parties define themselves as being anti-PAP or its values.)

Given that the WP has five MPs and two NCMPS (while no other Opposition party has an MP, and the SPP has the only other NCMP) , one would think that the WP best presents the angry S’porean voter. I think not.

The WP has done well because it can attract enough swing voters with its moderation (or waffliness or BS, if I wanted to be unkind) while relying on the 30% of voters who are angry with the PAP. It does not have to appeal to these voters because the Opposition parties try to avoid three-way contests in the belief that such contests only benefit the PAP.

True, the PAP benefits most in such contests, But the WP benefits most among the Opposition parties in two-way fights. Its discipline, moderation and willingness to walk the ground between general elections, plays well to the sheep of Animal Farm.

The biggest loser is the SDP, the natural home of these angry voters. SDP supporters in areas not contested by the SDP, have no choice but to vote WP, SPP, NSP, and SDA and RP; or spoil their votes.

Think I exaggerate? I’ve been told by a usually reliable source that in the Aljunied GRC, Tan Jee Say polled a decent close second to Tony Tan. Tan Cheng Bock was nowhere. And look at the TJS rally, and even the booing of TT on Nomination Day. These bear the hallmarks of SDP activism; in the latter the Dark Side of SDP activism, not the mainstream SDP.

And remember Tan Kin Lian, who lost his deposit? He and his adviser, Goh Meng Seng, thought they had the angry vote stitched up, allowing them to focus on the swing vote. Then TJS got his COE and performed well in the presidential election. TKL could only get angry publicly with TJS.

True, TJS was not endorsed by the SDP but he had the active help of many of its activists, though the MSM and bloggers focused on the endorsement he got from Nicole Seah, the super celebrity. Incidentally, I was told that in Marine Parade, TCB was second to TT. So much for her endorsement.

My conclusion? The SDP is the kingmaker of the Opposition. Remember how the Communists destroyed David Marshall and the WP in the early 60s? They told their supporters not to vote for the WP.

It could happen again. The SDP could withdraw its support of the WP, and even field candidates to fight the WP if the WP doesn’t pay Danegeld to the SDP or move leftwards. But by doing either or both, it will lose its attractiveness to the sheep of Animal Farm. Not a sweet spot to be in, Mao.

 

“Divining tonite’s results”: where it all went wrong

In Political governance on 29/08/2011 at 6:45 am

This http://atans1.wordpress.com/2011/08/27/divining-tonites-results/, was written on the morning of 27th August. The predictions of the various percentages went badly wrong, but the conclusions (see below) didn’t.

But first where the divination methods let me down badly. The two Drs between them only got 70% of the votes cast , not the 85% divinated. They only got between them the 35% of the electorate that will vote for any donkey, so long as it is a PAP donkey, and 35 percentage points of the sheep (swing voters who constitute 45% of the total votes). TT must have got all the donkey votes and TCB all but 10 percentage points of sheep votes.

Anyway, did get it right that it was too close to call between the two Dr Tans.

Tot that the ass vote (20% of the electorate) would be be split between TKL and TJS. TJS got all the ass votes (any ass so long as it is an Opposition ass). To great surprise, 5 percentage points of the sheep supported him. Had tot that no sheep would vote for a former SDP candidate. But then Nicole Seah supported him. Young sheep adore her.

Right in thinking that TKL would lose his deposit, but didn’t expect any sheep to vote for him. But it would seem he got his votes (5% of the total votes)  from the sheep. Must be super daft sheep.

Very, very wrong in thinking that 5 percentage points of the asses would vote for Dr Tan Cheng Bock. They remained solidly in the TJS camp. Tot that not all asses were daft, was wrong.

Finally an even bigger majority, 65%, are not happy with PM, not the 50ish% predicted.

Conclusion

PM better wake up his his ideas. The majority of S;poreans are unhappy about the

– unjustified commuter fare rise;

– repeated failures to secure MRT carriages and depots;

– attempts to tell us how we should vote on 27 August;

– Central Mediation Centre’s and MinLaw’s refusal to tell FTs that they are guests here, not our overlords, and must tolerate our culture and eating habits; and

– continued fixing of the Opposition by the PA (a government agency of which he is the chairman).

The vast majority of S’poreans are too smart to buy into the Kin Lians and Jee Says of this world. They know when people talk rubbish.

The vast majority of S’poreans are conservatives.

Brand PAP is toxic.

Mandate for PM to carry on fixing?

In Political governance, Wit on 28/08/2011 at 8:33 am

If I were a PAP spin doctor (which regrettably I’m not, they pay very well while I only have my CPF and dividend income to live on), this is how I’d spin Tony Tan’s very narrow win over Cheng Bock (7,000 votes*) with only 35% of all the votes cast and Jee Say’s good showing (30%?)**.

During the 2011 General Election, the PAP only got 60% of the popular vote. The Opposition got between them 40%. During the presidential election, the two candidates that had only just resigned from the PAP, got between them 70% of the votes. This is 10 percentage points more than the PAP got during the GE.

Not only that, but Kin Lian, the PAP member who resigned several yrs ago when his job specification no longer needed him to be a PAP member, and who has since been attacking the party, did badly. He may even lose his deposit***. It could be spun that S’poreans don’t like PAP traitors espec9ally those that did well from being PAP members. He was CEO of NTUC Income for 30 yrs.

So the PM can reasonably argue that he has a mandate from 70% of the voters to use government agencies to fix the Opposition something the PA (where he is chairman) and the HDB did in Aljunied. And he can allow:

– every TLC, or, or government department or agency to raise their charges until the pips squeak;

– LTA and SMRT to get away with repeated failures to secure MRT carriages and depots; and

– Central Mediation Centre and MinLaw to continue telling FTs that FTs can be intolerant of our culture and eating habits.

Carry on as usual PM, 70% of S’poreans are on yr side. Sigh.

Update on 28August 2011 at 9.25am

*7,269 to be precise

**25%

***lost his deposit with only 4.9% of the vote.

Divining tonite’s results

In Political governance on 27/08/2011 at 7:04 am

(Update on 28 August 2011, 7.15am –My divination methods let me down badly. The two Drs between them only got 70% of the votes cast , not the 85% I expected.

I also got wrong the belief that the swing voters would not vote TJS, abt 10% seems to have done so. I was very wrong in thinking that 5 percentage points of the asses would vote for Dr Tan Cheng Bock. They remained solidly in the TJS/  TKL camps.

What I got right — TKL could lose his deposit, and my conclusions. It’s even worse for PM. Bigger majority, abt 65%, not happy with him, not the 50ish% I predicted.)

Assumptions

35% of the voters will vote for any donkey so long as it is a PAP donkey; 20% of the voters will vote for any Opposition ass if it is an Opposition ass; and the remaining 45% are the sheep who think they can think for themselves.

Predictions

The two doctors will between the two of them get 85% of the votes. The donkeys and mules will vote for either of them, and 5 percentage points of the asses will vote for Dr Tan Cheng Bock. The result will be a close one, with neither of the doctors getting an absolute majority of the total votes cast by the animals.  I hope TCB wins but it’s only a hope. Dr Tony Tan could win.

The remaining asses will vote for either Tan Jee Say or Tan Kin Lian. It is very highly probable that TKL will lose his deposit. But TJS could also lose his deposit.

Conclusion

PM better wake up his his ideas. The majority of S;poreans are unhappy about the

– unjustified commuter fare rise;

– repeated failures to secure MRT carriages and depots;

– attempts to tell us how we should vote on 27 August;

– Central Mediation Centre’s and MinLaw’s refusal to tell FTs that they are guests here, not our overlords, and must tolerate our culture and eating habits; and

– continued fixing of the Opposition by the PA (a government agency of which he is the chairman).

The vast majority of S’poreans are too smart to buy into the Kin Lians and Jee Says of this world. They know when people talk rubbish.

The vast majority of S’poreans are conservatives.

Brand PAP is toxic.

Why S’poreans must unite and send another message to PM

In Political governance on 26/08/2011 at 7:37 am

Since 27 August is only a few days after the 100th day of PM’s cabinet being sworn in, we should use that day to tell the PM that we will not tolerate the:

– unjustified commuter fare rise;

– repeated failures to secure MRT carriages and depots;

– attempts to tell us how we should vote on 27 August;

– Central Mediation Centre’s and MinLaw’s refusal to tell FTs that they are guests here, not our overlords, and must tolerate our culture and eating habits; and

– continued fixing of the Opposition by the PA (a government agency of which he is the chairman).

TJS and TKL supporters, please vote with yr minds, not yr hearts. Do you seriously think yr candidate can win?

You may hate Dr Tan Cheng Bock, but hold yr noses and vote for the Tan that swing voter mules (45%) are most comfortable with,  and who is not the preferred candidate of the PAP.

PAP supporters, by not voting for Tony Tan you will help those members of the CEC who want the party to change. Remember the PM has said he will work with the winner, but do you want the winner to be TKL or TJS? TCB was until recently one of the MIW.

Anyway Tony Tan is meant for bigger things (like returning to GIC). The presidency is too small for him.

S’poreans vote tactically. Vote for the Tan who the PAP doesn’t want to win but who is not a radical or a friend of the SDP and Dr Chee, or who is from the Dark Side, pretending to be the “People’s Voice”.

Vote for Dr Tan Cheng Bock, the guy who wants to unite us thru footie and multiracialim. OK even I  admit this is corny. But at the very least, he is not the candidate of choice of the PAP, or Dr Chee and the SDP, or of Goh Meng Seng or the NSP.

Tony Tan keeps getting saboed by the governing PAP

In Political governance on 23/08/2011 at 7:33 am

Since the constructive, nation-building local media and NTUC, have portrayed Tony Tan as the governing PAP’s preferred candidate, every time there is public unhappiness with the government, his popularity suffers.

And boy oh boy, the unhappiness with the government has grown since the May GE.

First was the request by the two tpt cos to raise fares. SMRT is a TLC while a statutory board owns 12% of Comfort Delgro. Approval was given for a rise, abt a third of the amount requested. The funny thing is that fare rises don’t take effect until October. So couldn’t the request and approval be made in September?

Then there is CurryGate. A constructive, nation-building newspaper told us that that a government appointed  meditaor had proudly boasted of “pressuring” a local Indian family to stop preparing or eating curry when the FT PRC neighbours were in. When there was a public uproar at the insensitivity of the mediator, the government denied the accuracy of the newspaper article.

But its response created another issue: why were the mediators even raising the issue with the local family? Surelyguests have to adapt to hosts, not the other way round?

Strike three is the repeatedly failure of SMRT to secure its train depots.

Then came strike four. PAGate:  in a nutshell, the HDB had the brazen nerve to lease some prime spots for grassroots events — apparently previously by the PAP-controlled Aljunied Town Council — to the People’s Association. This was done quickly after the General Elections, on 27 May and 13 June, and apparently without any announcement or publication anywhere. On 15 August, the PA informed Sylvia Lim, Chairman of Aljunied-Hougang Town Council, that “bookings by WP will not be allowed”. http://siewkumhong.blogspot.com/2011/08/leopards-and-spots.

The presidential election is fast turning into a referendum on the government’s actions since the GE in May. And there is a gd alternative to Tony Tan.  He too was a PAP MP (at a time when PAP  MPs were respected members of the community, unlike today), he has moderate and compassionate views and best of all he is no radical or self-appointed Voice of the People.

If Tony Tan is the preferred candidate, he should tell the PM that the PM is doing him no favours and that the PM can keep the presidency. At 71, he is too old to do NS or to lose a public election thru no fault of his own.

Are you OK Doc Tan?

In Political governance on 21/08/2011 at 3:01 pm

I’m wondering if Tony Tan realises that the president is only a security guard when it comes to guarding the reserves?

The speech he gave at the NTUC financial and business services cluster National Day observance ceremony on Friday morning, was a good one. He talked abt the worsening global economy and the uses that the reserves can play.  But it was the speech of a player, not a security guard. ://sg.news.yahoo.com/blogs/singaporescene/gov-t-prepared-economic-uncertainties-tony-tan-071802754.html

So maybe he is hinting to the PM that he would like to return to GIC where he can play a meaningful role in helping S’pore steer through the crisis. He has after all helped built up the reserves to the extent that Tan Jee Say can say spending S$bn of the reserves on Jee Say’s plans is “small change”.

I for one prefer him to return to GIC. The elected presidency is too small a role for him. It was too small for LKY, it is too small for Tony Tan. http://atans1.wordpress.com/2011/07/26/gic-not-reported-in-st-cna-or-today/ Link was inserted at 6.25 pm on 21 August 2011.

 

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