Whither global equity markets?

In Uncategorized on 23/07/2010 at 5:24 am

Three  divergent views from three brokers, and what fund mgrs are telling  me.

Credit Suisse is the most bullish.  It sees a strong recovery in the second half of this year and compares this yr to 2004, a disappointing first half followed by a great second half beginning in mid-August. Like in 2004, the catalyst will be a Chinese relaxation of tight monetary policy.

Citi, expects a weaker second half, but then says it wlll be a buying opportunity. Talk of having yr cake and eating it!

Merrill Lynch, believes that equity markets will not bottom out until year-end because markets will take until then to  realise that China is slowing down, and that their portfolios have too many bull stocks. It also has a series of technical indicators that point that way.

The fourth view increasingly held by investors, that brokers pitch their wares to is that it will be like 2002. A disappointing first half followed by a worse second half.


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

%d bloggers like this: