Elections: One scenario missing Doc

In Political governance on 20/07/2011 at 6:53 am

I read Dr Ang Yong Guan’s three scenarios for the presidential elections and was impressed with his reasoning and chart. I wished he could have analysed one another scenario with two variations:

Three persons given COE

(a) Tony Tan, Tan Cheng Bock and Tan Kin Lian

(b) Tony Tan, Tan Cheng Bock and Tan See Jay.

The puzzle for me is how well TCB would fare when he is the “moderate”. Would those who would otherwise vote for TCB because he is the moderate in a four-horse  race, vote for TT or TKL/ TJS to avoid allowing the person they dislike most getting in? My view is that he could lose his deposit: many of swing voters (estimated at 45% by IPS) would vote tactically.

BTW, Dr Ang if are you reading this, I would have preferred leaving a post on yr blog, But I’m a bit spastic in using the alternatives offered to me,


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