“Divining tonite’s results”: where it all went wrong

In Political governance on 29/08/2011 at 6:45 am

This, was written on the morning of 27th August. The predictions of the various percentages went badly wrong, but the conclusions (see below) didn’t.

But first where the divination methods let me down badly. The two Drs between them only got 70% of the votes cast , not the 85% divinated. They only got between them the 35% of the electorate that will vote for any donkey, so long as it is a PAP donkey, and 35 percentage points of the sheep (swing voters who constitute 45% of the total votes). TT must have got all the donkey votes and TCB all but 10 percentage points of sheep votes.

Anyway, did get it right that it was too close to call between the two Dr Tans.

Tot that the ass vote (20% of the electorate) would be be split between TKL and TJS. TJS got all the ass votes (any ass so long as it is an Opposition ass). To great surprise, 5 percentage points of the sheep supported him. Had tot that no sheep would vote for a former SDP candidate. But then Nicole Seah supported him. Young sheep adore her.

Right in thinking that TKL would lose his deposit, but didn’t expect any sheep to vote for him. But it would seem he got his votes (5% of the total votes)  from the sheep. Must be super daft sheep.

Very, very wrong in thinking that 5 percentage points of the asses would vote for Dr Tan Cheng Bock. They remained solidly in the TJS camp. Tot that not all asses were daft, was wrong.

Finally an even bigger majority, 65%, are not happy with PM, not the 50ish% predicted.


PM better wake up his his ideas. The majority of S;poreans are unhappy about the

– unjustified commuter fare rise;

– repeated failures to secure MRT carriages and depots;

– attempts to tell us how we should vote on 27 August;

– Central Mediation Centre’s and MinLaw’s refusal to tell FTs that they are guests here, not our overlords, and must tolerate our culture and eating habits; and

– continued fixing of the Opposition by the PA (a government agency of which he is the chairman).

The vast majority of S’poreans are too smart to buy into the Kin Lians and Jee Says of this world. They know when people talk rubbish.

The vast majority of S’poreans are conservatives.

Brand PAP is toxic.

  1. I would look at it this way. 35% solidly pro-PAP. >30% solidly opposition. <35% swing voters or moderates. (Some of the 35% could be from opposition camp voting "strategically." So sold opposition supporters could be larger than 30%.) It shows a worse case scenario for a PAP defeat with only 35% support. It is definitely not comforting to PAP. So expect PAP to move to the center (fast) in the near future.

    Anyway, why are pro-PAP "donkeys" and pro-opposition "asses"? It shows your personal bias.

  2. Best possible result for PAP. Legal & authorised mandate for them to accelerate on past policies and slow down on the post-GE “sayang-the-people” firefighting mode. Expect another 1,000,000 foreigners and more pro-GDP measures over the next 5 years. PAP will probably wait until 2015 to do something to appease the masses.

  3. The New President with wealth of experience in Polictics, Finance Managements, on how a Govenment should Govern with moral society, moral ethics, and most importantly moral authority.
    PA right under PM’s nose does not understand what is moral and ethic, but have abuse Publics’ right to utilize State Land which was lease to P.A.
    With PA’s top excecutive having abused his Authorities on the leasing of State Land leased to PA, mabybe without the PM’s knowing, by telling lessee who to invite and who not to invite before PA can lease the land. This is the biggest JOKE of the Century.
    Another Joke is a member of CDC telling off Indian family not to cook and not to eat curry also, and she was quite contented of what she is doing, that have caused half the countrys’ population to be furious with the CMC’s member decision.
    Since the President of the Country have the over riding power of appointment of Chief Excecutives, can the Peoples’ President be kind enough to sent message across to the SMRT of what is expected of their Top Excecutives. Not to expectation with so much spend on security.
    Since the President have expressed that he will cared for the PEOPLE OF SINGAPORE and with his over riding Powers reverse the decision of the PTC’s on the fares increase of the Buses and MRTs. Increase of Fares is not Justified.

  4. […] Close of polls – Where Bears Roam Free: Tan Jee Say, the spoiler – Thoughts of a Cynical Investor: “Divining tonite’s results”: where it all went wrong – The Logic of Faith: PAP! Why you no provide leadership! Or, How the PAP can yet help themselves […]

  5. Your estimation of asses was too low. I agreed with you, so I was wrong too. We really have 25% “hardened” asses and they all rather let TT win than not vote for TJS. You are too prejudiced against TJS to see this. This puts you in the sheep category. Or donkey. My estimate for TT and TKL was spot on, but we both overestimated the number of sheep, which resulted in me overestimating TCB’s performance.

    I agree this is not a good result for the government. If the TJS’s 25% keeps growing, there will be more George Yeos in the next GE, even without a strong opposition candidate.

    • Na

      I’d rather subdivide the 45% sheep into two

      35% are NZ sheep — contented because gd pasture

      10% are desert or African sheep — angry and unhappy because poor grazing ground. Have to walk from place to place.

      5%age points of each voted for the TJS and TKL.

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