atans1

Well timed warning for merry hols, going into 2014

In Financial competency on 03/12/2013 at 6:42 am

I have never seen the sell-side predict a recession. There are a number of reasons for that but key among them is the personal career risk of calling a recession and being wrong. Both the sell-side and the buy-side tend to do much better when the economy and markets are doing well so who wants to be a party-pooper.

(Perpetual but respected bear)

He and another have gd points on why a recession is coming. Pls read http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2013/11/economics-and-markets-1 if thinking of cheonging market esp reits or when reading broker reports or ST stories about 2014 prospects.

For S’pore; remember first half of 2014 is the last possible time PAP govt can make us pay and pay and not suffer the consequences in next GE: https://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/11/30/2014-last-chance-for-govt-to-increase-prices/

And here’s a great quote from the Economist that applies to Tharman as he tries to keep inflation under control while keeping a lid on property and COE prices: THE role of central bankers is often compared to that of a sober adult who has to take away the punch bowl just as the party starts getting a little too rowdy. But what happens when the party as a whole is pretty glum apart from a small group of hooligans in the corner? Take away the booze then and you ruin the party for everybody else. Instead the answer is to pay particular care to who gets another drink.

The Economist was talking about the British situation where the economy is slowly recovering (faster than even the US) but residential property prices are flying again.

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  1. HK/Asia’s richest man Li Ka-shing :”I won’t take risks to earn every last penny,”
    Li Ka-shing laughs off disinvestment rumors – China.org.cn
    http://www.china.org.cn/business/2013-11/29/content_30746999.htm
    On the other hand,the super successful people in a closed society proclaim:”The best is yet to be”
    头脑风暴 2013:2014中国楼市 涨还是跌? 131201 http://v.youku.com/v_show/id_XNjQyNDI4OTg0.html

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