atans1

Redrawing electoral boundaries in the East

In Political governance on 13/03/2015 at 6:21 am

(Map added on 14 March 4am)

I won’t be too surprised if bits of Moulmein-Kallang GRC, and Joo Chiat SMC are merged into Marine Parade GRC. Reminder: PAP retained Joo Chiat by about three hundred votes, so merging it into Marine Parade would mean that there is one less SMC it could lose. Moulmein is a pretty safe PAP area.

Also expect Potong Pasir SMC to be merged into Bishan-Tao Payoh GRC. I think the PAP’s victory in Potong Pasir in the last GE means that the PAP administration’s promise not to merge Potong Pasir into a GRC no longer stands. Again this will mean a SMC is not lost. Bishan, like Marine Parade and Moulmein is safe PAP territory.

Wonder if safe PAP areas from other GRCs will be transferred into Aljunied GRC to dilute the WP vote? Bit risky as it affects safe PAP areas.

Things can really go wrong for the PAP.

When Opera Estate was transfered to Joo Chiat SMC and some bits of Joo Chiat transferred to Marine Parade, it was seen as ensuring that the East Coast GRC would be made safer (Opera Estate was inhun territiry) and moving troublemakers from Joo Chiat. Well Joo Chiat was almost lost.

And George Yeo’s Aljunied problems started when before 2006 GE, the ward Hwee Hwa was looking after was transferred from Marine Parade to Aljunied. It was tot to be a safe PAP area: turned out to be nest of anti-PAP Indian vipers.

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  1. It is time to put a stop to gerrymandering. LKY has tried, in ways that many find unacceptable, to take the politics out of politics. It is an idea that I believe to be correct if done in the national interest. As De Gaulle once said, the reason he took control of France because politics had become too serious to be left in the hands of politicians. That said, LKY could not resist his urge to dominate and control, even from his grave, as Lim Kim San advised him against when he proposed the elected Presidency.

  2. Gerrymandering is a two-sided sword – it can cut both ways. By pumping pro-PAP voters into opposition wards, it can dilute the opposition. But at the same time, the PAP is also diluting its own stronghold. This will have a homogenizing effect of making its GRC/SMC about 55%/45% pro-PAP. With unhappiness, disgruntlement and dissatisfaction of government performance, that slim margin can be easily eroded. In wanting to win all wards by gerrymandering, they may end up losing big. Al-Junied is only the Pioneer Generation. More are on the way – akan datang.

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