atans1

Be afraid, very afraid/ PAP doomed, like USSR commies?

In Currencies, Economy on 18/04/2016 at 2:52 pm

S’pore is facing serious economic problems. And who knows, it could lead to political change?

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Going the way of the USSR?

Recently Chris K posted on Facebook It was when the mobilisation of labour and capital have completely ran its course [in the USSR] that the troubles of the 1980s began. In this Singapore is also following the same path. Th PAP says they know this has to change but the flesh is weak even if the spirit is willing.

(Related post: http://utwt.blogspot.sg/2012/02/myth-of-paps-miracle-paul-krugman.html)

The logical conclusion of this view is that the PAP like the the Soviet Communist Party is doomed.  Question of time.

Os the 2015 GE, the high water mark for the PAP? Could the Lee row be an omen?

Where Chris K and I agree is that if property prices fall 20%, it’s bye-bye PAP.

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Did you know that the last time MAS  adopted a flat stance on the currency was in 2009 in  a recession. We not yet in recession so the move is pre-emptive. But this means the govt is afraid, very afraid.

Until now, the central bank had adopted a policy of what it had called a “modest and gradual appreciation” of the currency. Keeping the Singapore dollar flat is a move previously associated with recessions: significantly, the MAS last took this position in the middle of the global financial crisis in October 2008.

On the face of it, Singapore has no immediate reason for concern. Its fiscal surplus and low unemployment make it seem an economic paradise to policymakers elsewhere. Nevertheless, the man on the street has been experiencing deflation for several months now, a predicament not unfamiliar in other parts of the developed world. In February, the government forecast that prices would range from flat to down 1 percent this year. The central bank’s preferred measure of inflation, which excludes rent and transport costs, remains below 2 percent.

Singapore is also showing signs of stress. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the economy did not grow at all in the first quarter compared with the final three months of last year. Though manufacturing output rose after six consecutive quarters of contraction, this was due to a temporary increase in pharmaceutical production. In the dominant services sector, economic activity shrank by 3.8 percent from the fourth quarter of last year.

With the stock market in the doldrums and property prices falling, local bank DBS predicts growth of just 1.5 per cent this year, and says a downward revision could be on the cards. For all the outward calm, Singapore has plenty to worry about.

http://blogs.reuters.com/breakingviews/2016/04/14/singapore-joins-global-battle-against-deflation/

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  1. No worries man. -20% fall in pty markets is peanuts lah. Prices fell much much more during AFC and dumbass Sinkies continued to vote in PAP.

    As for the big deal about neutral NEER being like in 2008 — big fucking deal. Actually PAP’s playbook during real recession is to devalue NEER, not neutralise it. I.E. what happened during AFC and SARS. And it’s about time to devalue SGD anyway. Too many fucking Sinkies spendthrifting their SGD thinking it’s their God-given right to have strong currency to holiday and fuck around in JB, Batam, Japan, Korea, Europe, etc.

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