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UBS bearish that StanChart has turned a corner

In Banks, Emerging markets, Temasek on 27/04/2016 at 10:32 am

It’s Shares jump despite fall in profit

Standard Chartered shares surged 10% in London after the bank — which generates almost three quarters of its revenue from Asia — reported a surprise decline in loan impairments and capital increased more than some analysts estimated.

Pretax adjusted profit fell 64 per cent to US$539 million (S$729 million) for the first three months of 2016, from US$1.5 billion a year earlier, said the London-based bank in a statement yesterday. Losses on bad loans fell 1 per cent to US$471 million in the quarter, well short of the US$650 million of impairments estimated by Mr Chirantan Barua, an analyst at Sanford C Bernstein. 

But there are still huge problems.

Revenue dropped 24 per cent in the quarter to US$3.35 billion, as income from every business unit declined.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-26/standard-chartered-profit-drops-64-as-revenue-misses-estimates

UBS expects the share price to fall to 430p within 12 months.

With many funds short or underweight at the start of the year, commodity prices regaining some poise, EM equities rallying and EM funds seeing a return to inflows, a rally is directionally easy to rationalise.

But the StanChart rally has happened against a ~60% fall in consensus profit forecasts for this year and 30% decline for next. Our estimates are unchanged and so is our view: we see great businesses within StanChart – predominantly Transaction Banking, Financial Markets and bits of Retail – but we think the headwinds of de-risking, deleveraging, and flat and low yield curves will combine with elevated loan losses to make life particularly difficult near term (we forecast a loss for this year), leaving the 8% ROE target for 2018 out of reach.

 

 

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  1. Well, it is a good time for StanChart’s biggest investor to sell.

    Regards, Ajith

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