Still in denial that recession can be avoided?

In Economy on 17/10/2016 at 3:57 pm

The authorities are waiting for a recession to happen before they act to mitigate its effects, say the govt and its running dogs allies in the media and academia and private sector.

Chris K, a cybernut hero (though he’s no nut) has been KPKBing (on FB) that in the West, the authorities start their mitigation measures before a recession hits. The only defence that the PA govt and central bank can make is that a recession may not happen.

Well given the following signs, does the PAP govt and its running dogs seriously expect that we won’t have a recession? So why not start the mitigating measures?

1 Exports in Singapore fell a disappointing 4.8 per cent in September, after flat growth the previous month, according to latest figures released by International Enterprise (IE) Singapore on Monday (Oct 17).

Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) were hit by a decline in both electronic and non-electronic exports.

Electronic shipments fell 6.6 per cent, following a 6 per cent decline the previous month. The contraction was largely due to ICs (-6.3 per cent), disk drives (-55 per cent) and parts of PCs (-22.4 per cent), IE Singapore said.

Non-electronic exports contracted 4 per cent, in contrast to a 2.7 per cent expansion the previous month. The decline was led by structures of ships and boats (-99.9 per cent), civil engineering equipment parts (-47.6 per cent) and petrochemicals (-6.5 per cent).

Overall, shipments to seven of Singapore’s top 10 markets fell, with Malaysia, Indonesia and the US leading the decline. Bucking the trend were exports to Hong Kong, the European Union and South Korea, which rose between 9.9 per cent and 23.8 per cent.

2 The Singapore dollar fell to a seven-month low on Friday (Oct 14), as a disappointing growth report card and a dovish policy statement from the central bank fuelled concerns over the outlook of the economy.Gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter grew by a slower-than-expected 0.6 percent on-year, compared with forecasts of 1.7 per cent from a Reuters poll. Economic growth also contracted 4.1 per cent on a quarter-on-quarter basis, well off expectations for 0.3 per cent growth.


But fortunately Tharman, Hng Kiang and a Lee will spare us comic routines on inflation because

global food markets were likely to remain “generally well balanced” in the year ahead, as prices for most internationally traded agricultural commodities were “relatively low and stable”.


3 Retail sales in Singapore fell 1.1 per cent in August compared with the previous year, with all sectors except motor vehicles in the red, according to figures released by the Department of Statistics (SingStat) on Friday (Oct 14).

And this is really terrible news

4 While manufacturers have been under siege for some time on the back of flagging global trade, economists are also becoming concerned about the service sector. “The drag from (weak external demand) has now permeated into the core of the Singapore economy,” said Ms Ling.

The service sector has now logged three consecutive quarters of quarter-on-quarter contraction. The last time this happened was during the global financial crisis, said ANZ economist Ng Weiwen.

“(This reinforces) our view that tough times are here to stay for Singapore, with growth running the risk of remaining stuck in low gear,” he added.

A prolonged service sector slowdown will lead to more layoffs going into next year, given that the sector employs 72 per cent of the workforce, noted UOB economist Francis Tan. “We should be prepared for worse to come,” he added.

The only sector that logged an uptick in output in the third quarter was construction, which grew 2.5 per cent over last year.

Government forecasters expect growth to come in at the lower end of 1 per cent to 2 per cent this year.


  1. Blood is about to pour on the streets. Good.

    Job losses are what’s gonna drive the nail into the property coffin. You’ll be seeing an acceleration of mortgagee sales in 2017 and 2018. A severe property slump is what’s needed for a prolonged recession that will cleanse the S’pore economy.

    Currently most of my cash is in London & Dublin Dividend Aristocrats & Dividend Achievers funds. (US-based funds much cheaper & more liquid, but got 30% withholding tax on dividends KNN) Hell of a run over the last 5 years. Time to tighten the stops. Maybe will redeploy some cash into downtrodden Sinkie properties late-2017 or 2018.

  2. The only uptick is in construction ? Guess that’s how they intend to mitigate.

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