atans1

Property is not a cheong says Nomura

In Economy, Property on 01/11/2016 at 2:05 pm

Don’t believe the hype about a Singapore property pick-up, Nomura said, as it addressed some “half-truths” …

Not touched bottom yet leh despite

Singapore’s private residential property prices dropped 1.5 percent on-quarter in the third quarter, according to government data, marking 12 straight quarters of declines and the largest quarterly drop since 2009, during the global financial crisis.

[T]he first “half-truth” about the market’s next step was that the city-state’s private home sales had seen strong gains.

Second: signs of a demand pickup for prime luxury properties were overstated.

The third half-truth was that unsold inventory was low, especially in the suburbs.

Another myth was that the vacancy rate for private residential property had finally reached the peak.

[I]t was a half-truth to expect that the prime luxury segment had reached a pricing bottom. It noted that unsold inventory in the core central region was equivalent to more than 100 months of demand, with 76 percent more completions slated for the coming 18 months than in the previous 18 months.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/23/singapore-property-market-shows-superficial-signs-of-recovery-but-problems-run-deeper.html

And don’t forget that the economy’s really weak, even if it’s not yet in a recession.

Those who think property has bottomed out should consult M Ravi’s doctor.

Update at 4.30pm: CNA reports

Following surprisingly downbeat growth figures in the third quarter, a number of economists have cut back their expectations for Singapore’s economy, with DBS being the latest to do so.

In a report released on Tuesday (Nov 1), Mr Irvin Seah, a senior economist at DBS Bank, wrote that he now expects the city-state to log economic growth of 1.2 per cent this year, down from a previous forecast of 1.5 per cent.

For 2017, Singapore’s gross domestic product (GDP) will likely expand 1.3 per cent, given that the sequential decline in the latest GDP figures has lowered the growth trajectory, wrote Mr Seah. This is another marked downgrade from the economist’s long-standing forecast of 1.9 per cent.

After the GDP report, OCBC said a downgrade in its full-year growth forecast was “inevitable” and cut its full-year growth forecast for 2016 to 1.3 per cent, from 1.9 per cent. UOB similarly slashed its estimates to 1.4 per cent, from 2.2 per cent.

Economists at Citi were among the most pessimistic. Even after taking into account the likelihood of a rebound in fourth quarter GDP growth on a seasonally adjusted annualised basis to 2.6 per cent, Singapore’s economy will likely eke out a meagre 1.0 per cent GDP growth for the whole of this year, a step down from previous estimates of 1.5 per cent.

Despite the downgrades, these estimates still remain within the Government’s forecast range of 1 to 2 per cent for 2016.

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  1. Aiyo even a dumbass like me can see that the property cycle will bottom in 2018. Singapore will have another 1.5 years of misery. Actually can be quite good as deflation makes many things cheaper. Except for luxury Swiss goods or even US-made semi-crap as MAS will start devaluing the SGD soon.

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