atans1

Might as well vote for the Donald?

In Uncategorized on 03/11/2016 at 3:45 pm
Some economists believe that whatever the result of the election, a few longer-term signs point to markets taking a hit.
“Given that we’ve had a financial crisis of some sort about every eight years or so for the last several decades, it is hard to believe that we will go through the next four years without a hiccup,”

From NYT’s Dealbook

By Amie Tsang
Let’s say Donald J. Trump were elected president. How would markets and the economy react?
A Trump presidency, if nothing else, means uncertainty. And markets hate uncertainty.
So the first thing some investors would do is sell, right?
In reality, Andrew Ross Sorkin writes, it is hard to predict what markets would do. Some economists believe that whatever the result of the election, a few longer-term signs point to markets taking a hit.
“Given that we’ve had a financial crisis of some sort about every eight years or so for the last several decades, it is hard to believe that we will go through the next four years without a hiccup,” Mr. Sorkin writes. “If merger activity is a gauge of the market’s cycle, the recent spate of deals suggests we’re closer to the ninth inning than the first.”
It is also hard to track the immediate consequence of the election on the broader economy, no matter who wins. Big investments like blast furnaces and buildings are probably affected, one economist notes, but coffee and doughnut sales? They are probably safe.
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