atans1

What should really frighten S’poreans

In Economy, Property on 03/09/2017 at 4:46 am

Think twice before u cheong property. Growth in global trade, a very dependent driver for our economy in the past, can no longer be reliably relied on to produce its regular fixes to the S’pore economy and the PAP’s popularity.

S’pore is highly dependent on global trade and global trade growth has slowed in recent years.

International trade has been growing below historic trends for the past five years. The 1.9 per cent growth recorded in 2016, according to the team at the [World Bank], was the slowest since the 2009 collapse in commerce that followed the global financial crisis.

FT in February this year

Martin Wolf of the FT earlier this year on the global trade slowdown

Between 1960 and 2015, world trade increased at an average rate of 6.6 per cent, in real terms, while output grew at an average rate of 3.5 per cent. Between 2008 and 2015, however, average annual growth of world trade was 3.4 per cent in real terms, while world output grew at 2.4 per cent. Not only has the growth of trade slowed, but the gap between trade growth and that of output also fell sharply.

And although growth in trade has picked up this yr, the slowdown could be secular, not cyclical

The man running the world’s biggest sovereign wealth fund says there’s every indication that global trade is suffering from something more serious than a temporary slowdown.

Yngve Slyngstad, chief executive officer of Norges Bank Investment Management, as the fund is known, says the heyday of cross-border trade is probably behind us.

Because

During a recent conference on globalization, the fund’s chief strategist, Bjorn Erik Orskaug, suggested the world might be at an “inflection point” in trade, with shallower value chains and less cross-border production. And then there’s the protectionist agenda some governments are pursuing.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-31/norway-s-980-billion-fund-reveals-bleak-view-on-global-trade

Taz why PM was trying so hard for TPP despite rowing in private with his siblings: TPP sucked but only cybernuts celebrate its demise

 

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  1. Taz why the PAP is rapidly closing down the civic space.

    • So u and I and Tay Kheng Soon will be treated Teo Soh Lung and her friends. I doubt it. The closing down of the civic space has partly to do with the succession and the PAP’s attempts to regain control the news flow (and hence the narrative). They’ll find the latter impossible without affecting the global city aspirations. Now if they were to turn their backs on this aspiration, Dr Tay and I will be in trouble if u can’t leave. LOL.

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