Ground is not sweet for an early 2020 GE

In Economy, Political governance on 07/01/2020 at 4:28 am

The advance estimate for GDP growth in 2019 is 0.7%. In general, economists are guessing that 2020 GDP growth will be around 1.4% based on the world economy doing slightly better than last year. True 1.4% is double  last yr’s figure, but its a guess and its from a low base and the effects will only be felt in late 2020 or 2021 (early next yr is the latest for GE), if the guess is accurate. And it presupposes that there’s no serious conflict in the Gulf that will disrupt oil supplies and that Trump and Xi cool their trade war.

 Analysts expect a “tepid recovery” for the Singapore economy in 2020, after advance GDP estimates released Thursday pointed to the worst growth performance for the city state since the global financial crisis in 2009.

… analysts say growth momentum is expected to pick up gradually in the coming quarters.“Despite the lacklustre growth performance, the economy is slowly getting out of the woods,” says Irvin Seah, a senior economist at DBS Group Research in a flash note [last week]

… forecasts that Singapore will register GDP growth of 1.4% in 2020, but notes that this is still below its “potential growth rate” of around 2.5%.“Signs of a turnaround are emerging, but recovery could be weak,” Seah says. “

Meanwhile at Oxford Economics,

economist Sung Eun Jung agrees that while the external outlook has improved, the risk of relations between US and China deteriorating again “remains substantial”.

“On the domestic front, labour market conditions are softening as firms are more cautious about hiring and unemployment rate has been rising steadily since last year,” Sung adds.

Like DBS, Oxford Economics is also maintaining a forecast of 1.4% GDP growth for Singapore in 2020 following the release of the advance estimates.“We still forecast a fiscal expansion in 2020, including some targeted measures to help offset the planned GST (goods and services tax) hike and support ailing industries,” Sung says.

The size of the victory in the coming GE (expected shortly after the Feb Budget ) will therefore depend on the Budget goodies (Why no GE in Dec 2019) and how cock the Oppo are (Is there really a better alternative to PAP 4G).

Reminder 1: Heng’s 4G team needs 65% of the popular vote: the pass mark for bragging rights that they have the people’s mandate.

Reminder 2: Not Fake News: S’poreans still very satisfied with PAP govt


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