atans1

Covid-19: Relaxation of lockdown not “exit” but “phase 2”

In Uncategorized on 04/05/2020 at 10:22 am

PM has said that our soft lockdown (He and his PAP govt call it “circuit breaker”) will be relaxed. About time too, I needed a haircut, when the announced the lockdown.

FT’s editor puts any relaxation of lockdown, in perspective:

All across Europe, governments are taking baby steps to ease lockdowns that have paralysed their economies for weeks, if not months. “Exit strategy” is probably the wrong phrase to capture what happens next. We are entering the second phase of the pandemic, which will be an uneasy halfway house between lockdown and any semblance of normality — overshadowed by the ever-present risk of a second wave of infections.

FT

She goes on

In the first wave, our lives and economies were put on pause while governments deployed massive fiscal and monetary stimulus.The next phase will not be easier. Governments will have to weigh the economic cost against the risk of further virus outbreaks. We could end up living in bubbles, with a limited number of people we can interact with. Many will continue to work from home, perhaps until a vaccine is found.

Markets may be shrugging off the new reality — that a V-shaped recovery is no longer on the cards. This week’s mass layoffs have made clear that in many sectors the pain is longer lasting. Whether it’s airlines, travel, hospitality or even retail, it will be months before a semblance of normality is restored. Don’t book your summer holidays yet.

Sadly she’s right.

  1. We’re now in the no-man’s land phase of war, like in 1916 or 1943, after the initial shock and awe. To reach 1918 or 1945, we’ll either need a vaccine or herd immunity, whichever comes first.

    Between now & then though, is probably the best time in decades to pick up good solid companies. The virus has shown us clearly what types of businesses have a long runway of earnings growth in the decades ahead.

    Bargains for residential properties will start appearing by end this year. Not sure of good long term prospects though. Prime properties will do well, but many others including so-called luxury condos may just have lackluster returns even in the long run.

    Oh & PAPies will get 75% easily in the coming GE.

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