What HK tycoons did to assuage China’s anger

Last September, following a prediction that came true, I doubled down on the prediction stakes:

My next prediction is that before 1 October, the tycoons will make a huge gesture and, for them expensive, on cheap housing to placate Beijing

HK: Trumpets pls/ Next prediction

(The Chinese state media outlets were criticising Hong Kong’s tycoons for the lack of affordable housing in the territory.)

On 25 September, this story appeared

New World donates almost a fifth of its farmland reserves towards building public homes to ease Hong Kong’s housing woes

• New World Development will donate 3 million square feet of farmland to Hong Kong’s government and toward charity for building public homes
• The first part of the donation, comprising 28,000 square feet of land next to the Tin Shui Wai subway station, will be turned into 100 three-storey homes measuring 300 square feet each by 2022

https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3030317/new-world-development-donates-3-million-square-feet-farm-land-ease-hong

Adrian Cheng had announced that the New World Development would donate 3m square feet of land (a lot of land: fifth of the co’s reserves) to the government and charitable groups for subsidised housing developments. “We are very concerned about [Hong Kong’s] housing problem,” Mr Cheng said. His late grandfather founded New World Development, a ports, property and retail conglomerate.

Rival groups including Mr Li’s CK Asset Holdings and Lee Shau-kee’s Henderson Land then signalled their willingness to make similar land grants or ramp up their charitable activities. Mr Li’s charitable foundation also announced HK$1bn ($129m) in grants for small business owners affected by the protests.

These gestures appear to have appeased China. The rioters also helped the tycoons, by rioting for freedom. Pressure from Beijing on the tycoons lessened after a new wave of violent protests began in early October which continued through mid-November.  The rioters came out over the Christmas, New Year holidays.

 

 

What the Hongkies are hoping for by keeping up the protests

S’poreans, in general, take the view, that Hongkies are wasting their time protesting against China’s attempts to make HK more like S’pore in terms of political governance: Two cities, two systems

They should juz push for a massive HDB programme (When home ownership is less than 50%?) and other economic goodles.

Well

The hope was that eventually a Mikhail Gorbachev-like figure would appear in China who would allow universal suffrage in Hong Kong, Mr Chan says. “We don’t want to fight on the street. Why do we come out? Because the institution is not workable.”

FT

Wish them well. And remember this story. Given time, things can change.

Many years ago in a far away country a wise old teacher was in trouble with his King. The King sentenced the teacher to death, but listened to the teacher’s appeal.

The teacher pleaded for the King to give him five years in which to teach the King’s horse to talk. The King liked to own unusual things and a talking horse would certainly be unusual and after considerable thought said “yes”.

A friend of the teacher said to the teacher “Why did you make such a rash promise? You know no one has ever taught a horse to talk.” The teacher said in reply: “Sometime before the end of five years:

1. The King might change his mind and pardon me.

2. The King might forget that he sentenced me to death.

3. The King might die.

4. I might die.

5. I might teach the horse to talk.

In any event, I gain five years.”

https://naomistanford.com/2009/02/09/teaching-the-horse-to-talk/

Note that in other versions of the story, the “wise old teacher” is a con-man or trickster.

When home ownership is less than 50%?

There be riots?

The high cost of housing in HK

Li [a taxi driver in HK] was amazed at how “cheap” apartments in Singapore are. He lives with his parents in a one-bedroom apartment that is worth HK$6.5 million (US$830,000). He cannot afford to move out and, with his fourteen-hour days, has neither the time nor money to date.

https://sudhirtv.com/2019/11/15/a-longform-on-hong-kong-vs-singapore/

mostly due to the lack of an HDB type building programme because the property tycoons have in the past successfully lobbied against massive public housing programmes in HK.

One cheer for the PAP’s housing policy?

Public housing: a brickbat, two cheers & constructive suggestions

Hong Kong to resume subsidising housing

means that home ownership has fallen below 50% of the population.

In Singapore, home ownership is above 90%.

 

“This was the plan which we had from the very beginning, to give everybody a home at cost or below cost and as development takes place, everybody gets a lift, all boats rise as the tide rises,” LKY

He believed that owning a home gave S’poreans a sense of equity, that they own a part of the city, making them care more for the community. He also felt that home ownership would give Singaporean families an asset and a means of wealth accumulation.

———————

Wealth accumulation? What wealth accumulation?

Why 30-year old HDB flats difficult to sell/ Why PAP rule will end in 2029.

Older HDB flats: How much value is lost in under 2 yrs

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Now I.m not that stupid to think that the riots in HK could have been prevented by an HDB type policy and other economic measures aimed at reducing inequality. HK people are faced with a threat to their ang moh type freedoms: Honkies behaving like spoiled brats adopted by ang mohs (Cont’d)

But more public housing could have eased tensions: Bread and circuses.

Still not too late, if HK and Chinese govts are smart. But they don’t seem to be that smart. But maybe they are worried that a massive HDB type programme will cause unhappiness with those with mortgages to service? A massive HDB-type programme will result in lower values for existing private residential homes.

You might be interested in

Why our housing valuations look decent?

If LKY were alive, PAP govt wouldn’t publicly admit that HDB leases end worth nothing

HK riots not that violent meh

I’ve KPHBed (HK: Int’l media coverage shows PAP got point on media?) that the ang moh media (including my favourites, FT, Economist and BBC: yup I’m an anglophile) exaggerate the severity of the violence (especially police “brutality” in HK).

Only two people have died despite

Rules of engagement that in July were consistent with best international practice—rubber bullets fired only below waist height, tear-gas used to disperse not to kettle—have been thrown out of the window. Beatings at the time of arrest have become commonplace, sometimes escalating to frenzy. On November 11th an unarmed protester was shot in the stomach at point-blank range. And all this with impunity. Officially, only one officer out of over 30,000 has as yet been suspended for any action against a protester.

and

[P]rotesters have vandalised (or, in protest slang, “renovated”) state banks, Hong Kong’s biggest bookseller (which is owned by the Liaison Office) and restaurants with sympathies assumed to lie with the Communist Party. Rioters now set fires not only on the streets but inside buildings. On November 6th a pro-establishment politician with known links to the triads in Yuen Long was stabbed in broad daylight. People fear being attacked simply on the basis of being Mandarin-speaking mainland Chinese. Nihilism is trumping romanticism: “If we burn, you burn with us”, a rebel slogan from the climax of the Hunger Games saga, has gained currency. Earlier this month it was given awful form when a bystander confronting protesters was doused with something flammable and set on fire (he survived).

So I’m glad that the Economist owned up in an article (above quotes also from said article to show up its reporting):

The violence of the Hong Kong protests, and of the response to them, is hardly remarkable by international standards. Much worse has happened in Baghdad, Beirut, Santiago and Tehran over the past months.

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2019/11/21/hong-kong-stares-into-the-abyss-amid-growing-violence

I’m not saying that the violence from both sides in HK is reasonable. It is unreasonable but let’s keep things in perspective especially police violence.

Many years ago when I was a student in the UK, I watched a Panorama documentary showing the French riot police at work and in training. They were a bunch of thugs with the sheriff’s badge.

Another Panorama documentary I watched years later about the UK miners’ strike in the 80s, showed that even ordinary policemen can get carried away when confronted with violent, angry crowds. I remembered the scenes where the police beat their plastic shields with their truncheons like Roman legionaries, before charging. Tribalism at work.

Related post: HK protests: Surreal moments

 

Buying STI ETF is buying into HK

I’ve always told young people who want to invest in local shares to buy into one of the two STI ETFs if they believe that the PAP govt is doing a decent job and will continue doing a decent job, and if they believe that it will continue ruling S’pore. A coalition of the Spastics (Mad Dog, Lim Tean and Goh Meng Seng) will ruin S’pore.

But with the troubles in HK, I’ve had to modify that advice by telling them that because the STI Index has a heavy HK component, they have to think about HK’s problems and its long term future.

I tell them that around 13% of the STI Index (by mkt cap) is made up cos in the Jardines Group. Jardine and Matheson (and Sassoon) were the original narco drug barons. Jardines Group is still very HK-based: Dairy Farm, Jardine Matheson, and HK Land. All these cos are in STI, as is Jardine C&C*. See table for the HK exposures of the Jardines Group: SGX-listed stocks that have serious HK exposure. Note that Mandarin Htls is part of Jardines Group.

I’ll end with a link to the constructive, nation-building BT, defending the heavy presence of Jardines in STI Index: https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/are-there-risks-to-having-too-many-jardine-units-in-the-sti. Note a far cry from its snide remarks in 2010. See STI ETFs — Are there values there?.

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*Jardine C&C is big in Indonesia: Impt of Indonesia to Jardine’s and other local listcos

 

HK protests: Surreal moments

Once-peaceful pro-democracy demonstrations are transforming into violent confrontations. Neither side is willing to back down.

In the darkness, there’s black comedy.

Professionals protest during their lunch-break, then return to work.

Every day this week bankers and professionals have taken to the streets during lunch-breaks, blocking traffic

Economist

But nearby

masked protesters nearby smash traffic lights and set fire to bins.

Economist

And so

“I’ve been tear gassed a few times, but never when I was outside my office – popping out to get my lunch,” says one trader at HSBC.

BBC

When things were a lot less violent, FT reported (a few months ago)

Many of the radicals are wealthy and highly educated. When they scatter to avoid police they often escape in luxury cars. Polling among protesters consistently shows that economic factors are less important to them than ideas.

And

The movement is also cool and deeply romantic for young people who believe they are fighting for the future of their city. Many young couples in full battle gear can be seen hand in hand on the barricades.

HK: Int’l media coverage shows PAP got point on media?

Once-peaceful pro-democracy demonstrations have morphed into violent confrontations with neither side seems willing to back down. Int’l media puts the blamel largely on the HK authorities, especially the police.

Did you know that the Hongkie police are really very well behaved, restraint?

The Economist, no friend of the Honkie authorities and policesaid:

Hong Kong is a relatively modest user [of tear gas]. In the first five months of protests, its police fired nearly 6,000 rounds of tear-gas. Data are sketchy, but that seems a fairly modest figure—far fewer, for example, than were used on just one day in Paris last December against gilets jaunes (yellow-jacket) protesters.

https://www.economist.com/international/2019/11/12/banned-in-warfare-is-tear-gas-too-readily-used-to-control-crowds

Funny the ways of ang moh media. Very hard on gilets jaunes protesters. But very supportive of the Hongkie hooligans: HK: What MSM and alt media don’t tell us.

So maybe PAP got point on int’l media having their own agendas with objectivity being set aside if it doesn’t fit the agenda or narrative being peddled? Ang moh coverage of HK riots shows that the PAP govt has a point on its need to as its running dog, a constructive, nation-building media to help it fix the Oppo: Fixing the Oppo: Constructive, nation-building media and academics at work

Related articles

Why S’poreans don’t trust the constructive, nation-building media

TOC now part of constructive, nation-building media?

Every govt needs its own media outlets to tell its narrative? Cannot rely on ang moh media tell both sides of the story?

 

 

SGX-listed stocks that have serious HK exposure

DBS got almost 20% exposure (no surprise), while OCBC has only 9% exposure (surprise, tot more). UOB doesn’t even make the list (surprise, surprise). Surprise that that Wing Tai and iFast got that much HK exposure.

Honkies behaving like spoiled brats adopted by ang mohs (Cont’d)

In Honkies behaving like spoiled brats adopted by ang mohs, then abandoned,I quoted an FT reader who wrote:

As someone aptly described to me, to BJ, Hong Kong is like a kid who was adopted by western parents when she was young and now rejoining the birth family. But then she doesn’t want to rejoin, she thinks she’s too good for them. She wants to go back to the adopted family, who has left. BJ sees all these in her eyes, and will promote the other kids. HK has fallen out of favour.

My friend Chris Kuan has a better description

Geezer got it wrong, Its more like one of those sob Chinese dramas from the old days. Child brought up by angmoh after being given up by parents. After grown up, parent demand child to be returned and child is kicking and screaming, wanting to remain with the person who brought him up.

What Chris left out is that ang moh told kid they had to return to their real parents albeit with promises from the real parents that the kid could be like ang moh for another 50 years.

Whatever Hongkie kid prefers ang mohs. And in 2018 Hongkies love PAP govt, diss their govt.

HK attracts better quality FTs.

Hongkie FTs more classy

Hongkie FTs more classy cont’d

HKCon for HK? Imitating our NatCon?

Remember our National Conversation? And remember how skeptical I was of NatCon?

Many (self included) think that NatCon is Wayang. But could it be even more cynical? Is NatCon’s aim  to distract us from the govt’s mismanagement of the economy. This unworthy tot struck me when I read DBS’ analysis of the S’pore economy last week.

NatCon: More cynical than Wayang?

“Dialogue in the Dark (DiD) is a social enterprise that aims to educate the public on the experience of blindness, ” writes MSF S’pore (Kee Chui Chan’s ministry)

Tot it should be appropriated as a description of NatCon.

NatCon: Dialogue in the Dark

The door-to-door survey of 4,000 Singaporeans was conducted by the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) between November last year and February. It was carried out to validate the issues brought up in the 660 OSC sessions held over the past year …

[OSC committee Chairman and Education Minister Heng Swee Keat] noted that overall, the participants at the OSC sessions wanted the assurance that housing, healthcare and public transport will remain affordable.

Govt needed NatCon + survey to find these things out?

Norwegian PM Jens Stoltenberg spent an afternoon working incognito as a taxi driver in Oslo, he has revealed.

Mr Stoltenberg said he had wanted to hear from real Norwegian voters and that taxis were one of the few places where people shared their true views.

NatCon: PM should have tried driving a cab

Well a M’sian-born ethnic Indian living in HK (Seems he worked here too) wants to start a conversation that suspiciously sounds like NatCon the Hongkie way.

As for providing a platform for people to speak up, local businessman Chandran Nair, who runs independent think tank The Global Institute for Tomorrow, is touting his “Let’s Talk Hong Kong” project, which he hopes will provide a network of independent and neutral platforms “to bring the community together and find solutions”.

“Many are concerned about being involved in any way but I keep stressing that we are not taking sides and will be neutral,” he said, on the hunt for partners to raise funds and get started.

“Despite what people say, there is a positive path for Hong Kong after the protests. The first step on that path is dialogue: not just as a mechanism to narrow the political divide or share frustrations, but as a way to build real public understanding and trust across different social groups in the city.”

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3033770/there-silent-majority-hong-kong-yearning-speak-out

Let’s wish him luck.

Coming back to NatCon, the PAP govt will say its a great success. It won 70% of the popular vote in 2015. In 2011 it “won” only 60% of the popular vote.

HSBC: West not tua kee

In fact ang moh sui jee.

HSBC recently came up with a worse than expected set of results. Despite a US China trade war (HSBC is world’s largest trade financier and China’s the wotld’s workshop) and HK riots, its Asian businesses performed in line with analysts’ expectations.

Ang moh countries under-performed as usual but disappointed the already low expectations

HSBC’s cost-to-income ratio is 104% in Europe, compared with 43% in Asia, where it generates nearly 90% of its profits. The bank makes only a quarter of its lending in Britain, yet the country generates 35% of its non-performing loans … Its $98bn of risk-weighted assets allocated to America produce only $527m in annual profit.

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2019/10/28/as-profits-dwindle-hsbc-plans-a-radical-overhaul

Ang mohs are expensive, useless deadbeats. The only Asian country in HSBC’s empire like ang moh land is Ah Neh Land.

Related posts

HK: Why HSBC can still smile: Money withdrawn from mainland banks are deposited into Hang Seng Bank. Majority-owned by HSBC but has its own listing and distinct identity and brand. Google up images of its branches. More on Hang Seng Bank: HSBC, Superman and another Cina superhero.

Why HSBC is really Hongkong Bank

 

 

HK: Why HSBC can still smile

In Why HSBC is really Hongkong Bank

I wrote

I’m very surprised that BoC is a distant second in terms of deposits. I tot the gap was much narrower. And this was in 2018. I’m sure BoC lost a lot of deposits.

Well since then, there have been reports that BoC branches have been targeted by the rioters, as have the branches of other mainland controlled banks.

Sure HSBC is suffering because HK is its biggest and most profitable market

But the attacks and withdrawals from the Chinese banks must bring a smile to the quai lows at Hongkong Bank.

 

 

Honkies behaving like spoiled brats adopted by ang mohs, then abandoned

(I hope FT doesn’t sue me for this copy and paste.)

This is a thread in an FT article on HK. Doesn’t Passeby’s first two paragraphs remind you of the typical S’porean response to the unrest in HK?

Passerby
I wish the parents of the teenager rioters lose their job and have to tell their rioter children they can no longer afford school and data plan and food for them. And these spoiled brats have to actually go out and live life and earn money. Yeh, maybe then they would appreciate a little more having stability in the society and the economic benefits the motherland China provides.

But then it would be too late, as this is not some kind of game. Macau is setting up their stock exchange. Shenzhen is taking over HK. Hong Kong will forever have lost its lustre.

As someone aptly described to me, to BJ, Hong Kong is like a kid who was adopted by western parents when she was young and now rejoining the birth family. But then she doesn’t want to rejoin, she thinks she’s too good for them. She wants to go back to the adopted family, who has left. BJ sees all these in her eyes, and will promote the other kids. HK has fallen out of favour.

The cost of these few months is immeasurable, and irrecoverable.

Hong Kong burns, and no one else burns with Hong Kong.

The responses were pretty good too

concerned n america
Maybe the HK kid sees the Muslim Uigher kid Getting their organs harvested and clearly doesn’t want to rejoin the evil family.

Aloha
@Passerby

Deep in the psyche of every Wumao is this shame that they have to justify and defend the death of hundreds of unarmed college students in Tiananmen in 1989 with jobs and economic growth. That if the Chinese Communist Party has not shot those protestors, their lives would somehow be worse off. That is the argument they have to repeat to themselves and to others.

South Korea had also had its ‘Tiananmen’ and people also died. But South Korea have confronted the past and is able to talk about it. Consider that South Korea is a country smaller than some Chinese provinces and what it has achieved economically. It’s a lie that the Chinese communist party wants people to buy in: that only the Chinese communist party can provide stability and economic growth.

Also no more Hong Kong means no more Chinese communist party members able to hid their ill gotten money off shore from mainland China.

Related posts:

Stop being fascinated with HK riots, look closer home

Financial aspects of protests

Attempt to bring down HK’s financial system fails: yet again

Why HSBC is really Hongkong Bank

China says it needs HK as a financial centre

Two cities, two systems

Singapore and Hong Kong have long offered rival political models. Singapore, put crudely, is an illiberal democracy; Hong Kong a liberal autocracy. One has a freely elected government but strict laws limiting, for example, public protest and some political debate. The other has a chief executive “elected” by a few hundred officials, a partially elected and weak legislature, but robust traditions of freedom of speech and assembly. Singapore has been pointing, discreetly, to its relative stability. On October 4th the foreign ministry advised Singaporeans to “defer non-essential travel” to Hong Kong.

https://www.economist.com/asia/2019/10/10/singapore-stands-to-gain-from-hong-kongs-troubles?fbclid=IwAR0v8guoxejGop67vdUO8Q7I5h_tqQfl6GU-R-sbIf0ysKxJJMJDGPBjQUs

HK still top dog vis-a-vis S’pore: China says it needs HK as a financial centre

Got this  right: HK: Who Beijing really blames for the protests and riots

Got this wrong: but HK’s CEO has announced that govt will seize back unbuilt land from tycoons to build public housing. This was a no-no since colonial days.

HK: Trumpets pls/ Next prediction

How Beijing and HK celebrating today

In Beijing, to celebrate the 70th anniversary of China’s liberation by the CCP, there is a big military parade presided over by Xi,

In HK:

[I]mages of Mr Xi will be glued on to walkways so that protesters can stamp on him as they pass by.

FT

Btw, FT’s great coverage of HK: HK: What MSM and alt media don’t tell us

Thicker than even blood: The PAP way is the CCP way.

 

China says it needs HK as a financial centre

OK, OK not China but the constructive, nation building People’s Daily: Xi’s answer to our ST.

In an editorial on September 16, the paper said that HK was irreplaceable for China because of its importance as an offshore renminbi trading hub, its rule of law, its role as a risk and wealth management centre and its place as one of the freest economies in the world.

Well you heard it from China’s ST, not from some CIA funded ang moh running dog ang moh media like the FT or Economist or NYT who have also said this. As by the way as does once cybernut hero Chris Kuan.

Why isn’t Terry Online’s Service taking stuff from him. Secret Squirrel tells me it’s because he tells it as it is. Terry only wants stuff that puts the PAP govt in a bad light, even if it means faking the facts: Why TOC’s Danisha Hakeem is a menace to the credibility of alt media. Btw, he’s a S’porean.

Sorry coming back to HK.

Financial aspects of protests

Attempt to bring down HK’s financial system fails: yet again

Why HSBC is really Hongkong Bank

Tourism is 40% down because mainlanders are not coming and Swiss cos are affected.

HK: Trumpets pls/ Next prediction

I got this right.

Last week, in HK: Who Beijing really blames for the protests and riots, I wrote

Morocco Mole (Secret Squirrel’s side-kick) says that his second cousin twice removed in the CCP Central Committee says that Xi is planning to make these tycoons make big public donations (billions of dollars) to the HK govt which will use the money to do things like build cheap (not “affordable”) public housing. Remember you read of this first here.

On Saturday, the People’s Daily (China’s ST) demanded that the HK tycoons show their sincerity instead of “hoarding land for profit and earning every last penny”. All in all, there were separate editorials in three major constructive, nation-building state-owned media outlets attacking the property tycoons. They all suggested that HK authorities seize undeveloped land and use it to build more housing. Fyi, they are so powerful that the HK govt was planning to reclaim land from the sea to build public housing on, because the tycoons did not want building on vacant land state land.

My next prediction is that before 1 October, the tycoons will make a huge gesture and, for them expensive, on cheap housing to placate Beijing and, hopefully, the protesters. Remember that 1st October is an important date in Xi’s calender.

On that day, Beijing will be hoping to project an image of national strength and unity with a military parade through the city to mark 70 years since the founding of the People’s Republic of China.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/09/14/asia/china-hong-kong-october-1-intl-hnk/index.html

And the HK protesters are planning a big do to spoil Xi’s big day in Beijing. They aim to grab the attention of the ang moh media who live by “If it bleeds, it leads”, preferring to showing scenes of violence rather than boring march-pasts of of tanks and missiles.

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Financial aspects of protests

Attempt to bring down HK’s financial system fails: yet again

Why HSBC is really Hongkong Bank

Tourism is 40% down because mainlanders are not coming and Swiss cos are affected.

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Meanwhile, both sides are aware of the 800-pound gorilla in the room: US Cavalry riding to rescue HK from chief Xi?

Finally, Who is the superhero of protestors and short-sellers?

HK: Who Beijing really blames for the protests and riots

Chinese officials and their running dogs have publicly blamed the West (CIA. MI6, etc etc) for instigating the ang moh tua kee Hongkies.

The int’l press meanwhile have been highlighting that the local tycoons had been assuring Beijing that all was well: focusing on the big picture economic numbers and gliding over or misrepresenting awkward data like the declining affordability of housing*. They also reported that Beijing officials were privately grumbling about being misled by local tycoons.

So it was interesting that when the Economist and the NYT recently interviewed Ren Zhengfei, Huawei’s founder: he said he thinks that Honkie tycoons were “too greedy”

Asked about the unrest in Hong Kong, the Huawei boss voices aloud a criticism that other members of the mainland elite normally voice in private: that the tycoons who dominate the former British colony have been too greedy over the years. “The issue in Hong Kong has been caused by extreme capitalism. The four major families have made enormous amounts of money,” he says, detailing how the same few property magnates control the economy down to its humblest newspaper kiosks and coffee shops. “A lesson we are learning from the current situation in Hong Kong is that the divide between the rich and poor shouldn’t be too large,” he says.

https://www.economist.com/china/2019/09/12/huaweis-founder-defends-deng-xiaopings-chinese-model

Morocco Mole (Secret Squirrel’s side-kick) says that his second cousin twice removed in the CCP Central Committee says that Xi is planning to make these tycoons make big public donations (billions of dollars) to the HK govt which will use the money to do things like build cheap (not “affordable”) public housing. Remember you read of this first here.

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*Bit like grassroot leaders telling PM and his millionaire ministers that the grumblings of people like me between 2007 and the calling of GE 2011 was “juz noise” and didn’t reflect reality: voters were happy with the PAP. As PM admitted, he and his ministers realised the truth during the campaigning and he apologised: BG Yeo wants to lead Opposition within the PAP?.

Eat yr heart out, HK doomsters, hedgies

The Chinese are buying HK shares. Better still state-owned cos are suspected to be doing much of the buying at the behest of Xi.

Since the start of the year, net purchases of Hong Kong stocks by mainland Chinese investors had reached almost HK$160bn ($20bn) by the close of the market last Friday. This is almost double net inflows of HK$82.7bn for all of 2018. The buying was made through stock connect programmes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges.

Related posts:

Attempt to bring down HK’s financial system fails: yet again

Hedgies con trick unravels

US Cavalry riding to rescue HK from chief Xi?

Or to be a lot more accurate, will the US Congress pass “Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act”?

The proposed bill would allow the US government to place sanctions on Chinese officials who “suppress basic freedoms” in Hong Kong and would require it to regularly certify the city’s “high degree of autonomy” in order for it to continue to enjoy preferential trade and investment policies not available to mainland China.

Last weekend, there was the usual massive peaceful protest followed by small scale but very violent riots. HK protesters were marching, asking the US congress to pass the above act. Many of the marchers, from elderly retirees, young families and students, carried US flags, or placards bearing the face of Donald Trump to call on the him to support them.

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How Hongkies justify flying US flag

The US flag is about freedom and bravery,” said one, a 30-year-old who gave his name as Peter. “It’s not about supporting the US government, it’s about the value behind the flag no matter who the US president is at the time. The flag and the freedom doesn’t change.

Quote from FT

Tun manufacturing another row to stir his anti-PAP S’porean fans?

Btw, carrying placards with The Donald’s face on them is a smart way of currying his favour. He can tell Xi, “I’m more popular then you in Hong Kong.”

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The US Congress will return this week after its summer recess. The Hong Kong bill has widespread bipartisan support.

China’s leaders must either respect Hong Kong’s autonomy and rule of law or know that their escalating aggression will inexorably lead them to face swift, severe and lasting consequences from the United States and the world. Today, that choice is theirs.”

Marco Rubio, a former US presidential candidate and co-sponsor of the bill.

Another example of the Americans’ attitude: Americans and Chinese lay down the law to HK

 

 

 

 

 

Attempt to bring down HK’s financial system fails: yet again

A wannabe leader (Intern in ang moh hedgie that is short HK and China?) in the protest movement tried to cause chaos in HK’s financial system, the FT reported.

A few weeks ago, a protester called for massed cash withdrawals and currency conversions into US$: to try to cause problems for local banks. The HK$ has been pegged to the US$ since the early 1980s, and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority allows it to move within a narrow trading band against the US$.

“Converting to a foreign currency (like the US dollar) also protects yourself, so if the currency peg goes pear-shaped you won’t be left holding Hong Kong dollars,” the person wrote. Despite photos appearing on social media showing large stacks of banknotes withdrawn by people, the HK$ finished trading only a little weaker.

Nothing further was heard.

What the guy was trying to get Hongkies to do do, was what hedgies tried to do to HK in the 1998 but failed.

Even George Soros lost money.  After successful short attacks on the currencies of Thailand and Malaysia, he launched a dual assault on Hong Kong’s currency and stock market. The HKMA was forced to spend about HK$120bn (U$15.1bn) fending off Mr Soros and other short sellers. HKMA made a lot of money, not only on the currency but on HK shares. Btw it monetised its share holding by creating an ETF: https://www.hkma.gov.hk/eng/key-information/insight/20091112.shtml

Ang moh hedgies got taken to the cleaners.

How the peg works

Since 1983, the linked exchange rate system is a unique type of exchange rate regime used for the Hong Kong dollar to be pegged with the United States dollar at a fixed rate of HK$7.80 = US$1. In this unique linked exchange rate system, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) authorises the three note-issuing banks (HSBC, Bank of China and Standard Chartered) to issue new banknotes provided that they deposit an equivalent value of United States dollars with the HKMA.

In practice, in the unique linked exchange rate system, the exchange rate of HK$7.80 = US$1, is strictly controlled by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority in the foreign exchange market by controlling supply and demand of Hong Kong dollars in order to influence the exchange rate being fixed. By this arrangement the HKMA guarantees to exchange United States dollar into Hong Kong dollars and vice versa, at the rate of 7.80. When the market rate is below 7.80, the banks will convert United States dollar for Hong Kong dollars from the HKMA, Hong Kong dollars supply will increase, and the market rate will climb back to 7.80. The same mechanism also works when the market rate is above 7.80, and the banks will convert Hong Kong dollars for United States dollars.

By this arrangement, the Hong Kong dollar is backed by one of the world’s largest foreign exchange reserves, which is over 7 times the amount of money supplied in circulation or about 48% of Hong Kong dollar M3 at the end of April 2016.^[14]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_dollar

Here’s pice on why attempts to destroy peg fail: https://investors-corner.bnpparibas-am.com/investment-themes/emerging-markets/hong-kong-dollar-peg/

Fyi, it was an ang moh who devised the peg scheme.

My coverage of HK matters that most ang moh, and our constructive, nation-building media MSM miss covering

Interesting, relevant, little known facts about HK’s general strike

HK: Inconvenient truths for China and West/ FT PAP missed

HK protestors prove George Orwell’s point

Why Hongkies sang ‘Sing Hallelujah to the Lord’

HK demonstrations: What I’d like to know

How Xi can hurt HK the non violent way

HK: Who is the superhero of protestors and short-sellers?

Reminder to those who republish my pieces with my permission. If you suka suka take things out without my coconsent, you no longer have permission to republish the piece.

HK protests affect Swiss cos

The protests have led to share price falls for Swiss watchmakers Richemont and Swatch Group. They had fallen after previous unrest in 2014 but then recovered.

It’s all about tourists (especially from the mainland) buying their stuff: Why ang moh luxury brands lick Chinese p***ies.

HK: Who is the superhero of protestors and short-sellers?

All indications are that the first day of the second general strike since the 1967 Cultural Revolution riots was a damp squib despite protestors disrupting train services causing major rush hour traffic delays and many students boycotting classes (Great excuse to take the day off),.

Time for the Head Prefect to call a press conference? She always gets HK people more upset and

instead of steadying markets, Ms Lam’s press conferences have tended to correlate with sharpening falls on the Hang Seng, which finished the month more than 7 per cent lower.

FT

Why HSBC is really Hongkong Bank

Yesterday, HSBC took out advertisements, in five Cantonese-language newspapers. The bank said it was deeply concerned about the recent events and “condemned violence of any kind”, saying the rule of law is vital to maintaining Hong Kong’s status as a financial centre. “That is why we fully support the ambition to resolve the present situation peacefully.”

Why is it so concerned?

These three charts show why HSBC is really Hongkong Bank (It once used this name), and the last two charts also show that it’s the people’s bank in HK. All of which explains the ads and what an HSBC spokesman said recently: “We respect that our employees have their own personal views on political and social matters. Our priorities are the safety of our employees and supporting our customers.”

A 34-year-old HSBC bank employee said the bank had not officially sanctioned the strike on Monday but some managers had told staff verbally they would not be penalised for not coming to work.

FT

Interesting, relevant, little known facts about HK’s general strike

 

Remember that HSBC includes the Hang Seng Bank which has a lot of branches serving the people: the takeover of Hang Seng Bank was the start of HSBC becoming a global bank: HSBC, Superman and another Cina superhero. I’m very surprised that BoC is a distant second in terms of deposits. I tot the gap was much narrower. And this was in 2018. I’m sure BoC lost a lot of deposits.

 

 

 

Wh

 

Chaos can be good for S$, PM, PAP

I kid u not.

HK$ rose against US$ despite the protests and riots that created economic uncertainty. Hmm maybe Mad Dog in power could be good for S$.

Hongkie 2014 protest hero couldn’t open Hongkong Bank account

Came across something I wasn’t aware of in a response to the following question on Quora

What are the chances the protesters in Hong Kong are paid?

 Ken Morgan, lives in Hong Kong (2019-present) responded

It’s entirely possible.

My evidence is based on Joshua Wong.

If you recall back in 2016 he tried to open a HSBC bank account. Despite the name Hongkong Shanghan Banking Corporation HSBC is a UK registered bank that came about during the opium wars. A clue to this is why it’s HSBC and not HKSBC.

He went to the press and said it was Beijing’s influence that made them reject his bank account.

Except he was refused a bank account because he would not reveal the source of his money. Why do you have to be transparent about your source of money? Well anti money laundering laws have been put in place everywhere. He tried to deposit a very large sum of money and refused to tell the bank where he got it from.

You have to ask yourself where did the money come from?

You also have to ask how did he get his hands on it?

As a teenager I didn’t have much let alone £200K.

I googled “Joshua Wong + HSBC” and there were two SCMP stories on this incident.

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/1933597/hong-kong-activist-joshua-wong-accuses-hsbc-political

https://www.scmp.com/business/article/1934760/joshua-wong-wasnt-mistreated-hsbc

Hey Heng, HK annced help package for economy

Where’s ours? U waiting for election is it?

Remember the govt recently cut its growth forecast

Taking into account the global and domestic economic environment, as well as the performance of the Singapore economy in the first half of the year, the GDP growth forecast for 2019 is downgraded to “0.0 to 1.0 per cent”, from “1.5 to 2.5 per cent”, with growth expected to come in at around the mid-point of the forecast range.

MTI

HK has cut its 2019 growth forecast to between 0-1%, from 2-3%.

The HK govt announced a US$2.4bn economic support package on Thursday in a bid to ease headwinds.

Financial Secretary Paul Chan said it would include subsidies for businesses and the underprivileged as well as higher salary tax rebates. He stressed that the package was not in response to escalating political protests in the territory.

Interesting, relevant, little known facts about HK’s general strike

Strike brings Hong Kong to a standstill as political crisis deepens

Transport network crippled and flights cancelled as police clash with protesters

FT Headline

It went on

Advertising and banking employees joined construction and retail workers to take part in Hong Kong’s first general strike in half a century, showing how anti-government sentiment is now building among professionals.

There were the usual clashes and the use of tear gas by the police.

Here’s some facts that are not well known but relevant in analysing the situation in HK

There hasn’t been a general strike [in Hong Kong] since the 1960s when the Beijing-controlled unions called the strikes,” Antony Dapiran. He has written a book on the history of dissent in HK. So if the West is really behind the protests as Beijing alleges, cannot isit? Juz retaliating ler.

A HK conglomerate (Secret Squirrel tells me HK Special Branch tells him it’s the Jardine Group) said via an unofficial but authoritative spokesperson that employees who choose not to come to work on Monday could count it as a “work from home”. Seems Swire Group also had a similar policy. Both are British Hongs.

The local HK conglomerates (Cheung Kong, Hutch etc) juz said nothing as they hope not to upset Beijing, the HK govt, or their HK employees.

An HSBC spokesman said: “We respect that our employees have their own personal views on political and social matters. Our priorities are the safety of our employees and supporting our customers.”

A 34-year-old HSBC bank employee said the bank had not officially sanctioned the strike on Monday but some managers had told staff verbally they would not be penalised for not coming to work.

FT

Remember that HSBC includes the Hang Seng Bank which has a lot of branches serving the people: the takeover of Hang Seng Bank was the start of HSBC becoming a global bank: HSBC, Superman and another Cina superhero.

StanChart, Citi etc kept quiet hoping not to upset Beijing, the HK govt or their employees.

Btw, HSBC’s retail business holds billions of dollars in deposits in HK, and has a leading position in mortgages: both may suffer if instability worsens.

Americans and Chinese lay down the law to HK

The Americans were very aggressive, while the Chinese were very wishy washy, mouthing platitudes.

The American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong (AmCham members represent sectors ranging from financial services to logistics and tech) has called on the government to take immediate action to restore business confidence in HK, including a complete withdrawal of the controversial bill that would have enabled extraditions to mainland China.

It suggested the government restore confidence by “formally and completely” withdrawing the extradition bill “to remove any room for continued public doubt” among other measures, it said in a statement.

What I found funny was that this statement was sent following a survey of its members. Only 12% responded to the survey according to the FT yet

“A clear majority of our membership surveyed over the past week said the government needs to address the underlying causes of the protests and not simply to paper over the cracks of social instability with a short-term law-and-order fix,” said AmCham President Tara Joseph.

(BBC report)

Meanwhile, the Chinese comments were pretty mild.

“We hope that… people will stand firm in defence of the rule of law,” a spokesman for the government’s Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office said.

Adding “We call on the general public of Hong Kong to be aware of the grave nature of the current situation.”

He condemned “the evil and criminal acts committed by the radical elements” in Hong Kong.

“We noticed he Hong Kong government has earnestly reflected on its inadequacies over its work on the extradition bill, and Carrie Lam said on July 1 she would change her governing style to be more open and tolerant in listening to Hong Kong people’s feedback.”

HK has seen eight consecutive weekends of protests.

HK: Inconvenient truths for China and West/ FT PAP missed

As the letter to the Editor of the Economist (see below) points out

— “The promise of universal suffrage as the ultimate aim appears in the Basic Law”, HK’s “constitution” that was approved by Beijing. One in the eye for China for being that stupid. Another in the eye for now changing it’s mind. Why pretend in the first place?

— The British only took “action to return power to the people until they learned that there would be no hope of extending British rule beyond 1997”: “Perfidious Albion” as the French would say. Saboing China isit? Planting a bomb and hoping it would explode after they left?

To be fair to the British Foreign Office, the mandarins there were appalled by the decision of Chris Patten (last governor of HK but the first British politician to hold that post) endorsed by the British cabinet to give the HK people democratic rights which the British had long withheld from them.

The mandarins like the Chinese leaders thought that HK would be returned to China on an “as is” basis. The clock on political and social changes had stopped at the time the Sino-British joint declaration on the future of Hong Kong was agreed upon, unless both sides agreed to changes. But Patten saw a loophole in the declaration, and sensed that China did not want to make HK people more fearful of China by publicly kicking up a huge fuss about giving the HK people democratic rights previously denied to them.

The letter is from a pro-China member of LegCo. She was the Secretary for Security and tried to pass some really draconian laws but the Hongkies demonstrated and the laws never passed.

I must take issue with “China’s chance” (June 22nd), which ascribed the recent turmoil in Hong Kong to China’s alleged suppression of Hong Kong’s freedoms and reluctance to grant the territory universal suffrage in electing its chief. China has gone much further than Britain in democratising Hong Kong. The promise of universal suffrage as the ultimate aim appears in the Basic Law, Hong Kong’s mini-constitution, not in the Sino-British joint declaration on the future of Hong Kong. Nor did the British overlords take action to return power to the people until they learned that there would be no hope of extending British rule beyond 1997.

It is naive to suggest that universal suffrage will solve all Hong Kong’s problems. Its people, especially the young, are deeply angered by the acute housing and land shortage, the widening wealth gap, worsening living conditions and the narrowing opportunities for upward mobility because of competition from a rising China. Hong Kong, however, is not unique in experiencing deep divisions because of growing disparities.

Universal suffrage to elect the city’s leader, with groups fighting on opposing ideological or socioeconomic platforms, would serve only to amplify the existing schisms. Britain’s recent political polarisation among Remainers and Leavers is a cautionary tale for those who have romantic illusions about democracy. Our city’s priority must lie in tackling deep-rooted social and economic problems with a view to improving the livelihood of our people.

regina ip
Member of Hong Kong’s
Legislative Council
Hong Kong

Maybe PAP govt should have offered her a job in the civil service after she resigned as Secretary for Security. She’s their kind of FT: what with her dismissal of universal suffrage, and emphasis on security and keeping the masses contented. But she really has talent, and has a mind of her own, like many Hongkies.

Related posts:

How Xi can hurt HK the non violent way

HK demonstrations: What I’d like to know

How Hongkies organised leaderless protests

An excerpt from a BBC report. I recommend that real anti-PAP warriors read the report to pick up tips.

Many of the calls to protest are made anonymously, on message boards and in group chats on encrypted messaging apps.

Some groups have up to 70,000 active subscribers, representing about 1% of Hong Kong’s entire population. Many provide updates and first-hand reports relating to the protests, while others act as a crowdsourced lookout for police, warning protestors of nearby activity.

There are also smaller groups made up of lawyers, first aiders and medics. They provide legal advice and get supplies to protesters on the front lines.

Demonstrators say the online co-ordination of protests offers a convenient and instant way to disseminate information. The chat groups also let participants vote – in real time – to decide the next moves.

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-48802125

HK: What MSM and alt media don’t tell us

Both by our constructive, nation-building media and alt media. Both focus on faking the news to further their pro-PAP and anti-PAP agendas respectively.

I got these four great insights on the situation HK from the Financial Times.

Inside, it was chaos. An alarm was ringing, papers were scattered over the floor, the walls were covered in anti-government graffiti. On closer inspection, though, it was a finely calibrated act of provocation; protesters had vandalised the emblems of power but had been careful to leave libraries and cultural artefacts untouched. They’d even left money in the fridge to pay for drinks they’d consumed.

Louise Lim on what she saw inside the the thrashed LegCo

PAP BS that the violence was mindless. No wonder there was wide-spread approval of what the thrashers did.

The police’s reasoning for allowing the storming

Police defended their withdrawal from the Legislative Council complex, saying a decision was made on safety grounds to avoid possible “physical encounters” with protesters in a confined space. The force said protesters had used “poisonous and inflammable chemicals” to attack police officers during the day and if they had attempted to ignite these chemicals inside the building, the consequences would have been “unimaginable”.

One could be sceptical of the reasoning, but I never saw this reported here. Why?

This from an FT reader on the uselessness of the Chinese propaganda machine in HK

“It’s simply amazing that foreign powers can exert such an influence on this generation of Hong Kong youngsters who are often criticised for their poor command of English. The whole CCP propaganda machine in Hong Kong that has received limitless funding for the last 22 years, should be summarily dismissed for gross incompetence!!”

Gives the lie that our constructive, nation-building media imply: that the HK people are ang moh tua kees.

And last but not least, this illustration sums up the situation:

HK: LegCo thrashing not PRC black ops

Further to HK: Frustration, Carrie’s gambit or PRC black ops?, where I voiced tots that the  thrashing of LegCo could have been a PRC black ops operation (“Peanuts” mob and police “cooperation”), it’s now clear that it was more the result of the frustration of some useful idiots and a head prefect’s gambit that the useful idiots accepted. We’ll have to watch and wait to see who wins.

Hong Kong protests: Parliament ‘never represented its people’

On the night of 1 July, hundreds of protesters forcibly broke into Hong Kong’s parliamentary Legislative Council building.

Pro-democracy activist Joshua Wong, who did not take part, explains why protesters felt that action was necessary.

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-asia-china-48824110/hong-kong-protests-parliament-never-represented-its-people

With useful idiots as Joshua Wong (He reminds me of our very own Mad Dog, now thankfully under sedation by RI doctors from the SDP), Xi doesn’t need to send in the PRC armed police.

 

HK: Frustration, Carrie’s gambit or PRC black ops?

Here is what a protester who was part of group that thrashed LegCo said

“Some people might say this is wrong but to us it is a necessary evil,” said one man wearing a gas mask, who identified himself only as Henry, as protesters threw eggs inside the Legislative Council, Hong Kong’s de facto parliament. “One million of us marched peacefully, two million of us marched peacefully and yet the government didn’t listen to us.”

FT report

Police inaction has led to suspicions that the break-in was encouraged* (Wilder speculation has the break-in attributed to PRC operatives and the usual “useful idiots”**)

At around midday, dozens of demonstrators broke off from the main protest and made their way to LegCo.

They effectively besieged the building, as a large crowd of several hundred watched from a distance, before eventually smashing their way through the glass facade.

Inside, they defaced the emblem of Hong Kong in the central chamber, raised the old British colonial flag, spray-painted messages across the walls and shattered furniture.

At about midnight outside the building, protesters clad in plastic helmets and brandishing umbrellas retreated from a baton charge by riot police, who quickly overcame their makeshift barriers.

Within an hour, the streets around the building were clear of everyone except the media and police.

BBC

Watch these

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-asia-48834050/inside-hong-kong-s-parliament-after-protesters-were-evicted

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-asia-china-48821664/hong-kong-protesters-removed-from-hk-parliament-building

Related posts:

HK protestors prove George Orwell’s point

Why Hongkies sang ‘Sing Hallelujah to the Lord’

HK demonstrations: What I’d like to know

---

*Why did Lam remove the guards, inviting in the provocateurs?

**Were these protesters provocative agents of Communist China?

 

 

How Xi can hurt HK the non violent way

His government is trying to create a “Greater Bay Area” an area that includes Hong Kong, Macau and mainland cities in the fast-growing Pearl River Delta, a region with a population of 70m and which has a GDP around that of Australia.

Hong Kong would be the main financial centre for the area and China would “steadily expand the channels for mainland and Hong Kong residents to invest in financial products in each other’s market”.

Well it could sacrifice some economic and financial efficiency by not making HK the main financial centre. It could promote financial activities in other cities.

Let the Hongkies see if they can eat and drink ang moh ideals: Why Hongkies sang ‘Sing Hallelujah to the Lord’

HK protestors prove George Orwell’s point

The announcement by Hong Kong’s chief executive Carrie Lam that she was suspending the proposal surprised many China-watchers, who had assumed that President Xi Jinping in Beijing would be reluctant to back down and lose face. The fact that Mr Xi decided to hit the pause button suggests that the Chinese president and the Hong Kong government have collectively realised that the greatest risk facing them now is not perceived weakness, but chaos and violence on the streets of Hong Kong that could have significant domestic and international repercussions.

FT Gideon Rachman

Emphasis mine

Well George Orwell did write

Since pacifists have more freedom of action in countries where traces of democracy survive, pacifism can act more effectively against democracy than for it. Objectively the pacifist is pro-Nazi.

“No, Not One”, Adelphi (October 1941)

A few yrs later, he elaborated further about the uselessness of pacifism or civil disobedience where democracy is absent (emphasis mine)

[Gandhi] believed in “arousing the world”, which is only possible if the world gets a chance to hear what you are doing. It is difficult to see how Gandhi’s methods could be applied in a country where opponents of the regime disappear in the middle of the night and are never heard of again. Without a free press and the right of assembly, it is impossible not merely to appeal to outside opinion, but to bring a mass movement into being, or even to make your intentions known to your adversary. Is there a Gandhi in Russia at this moment? And if there is, what is he accomplishing? The Russian masses could only practise civil disobedience if the same idea happened to occur to all of them simultaneously, and even then, to judge by the history of the Ukraine famine, it would make no difference. But let it be granted that non-violent resistance can be effective against one’s own government, or against an occupying power: even so, how does one put it into practise internationally? Gandhi’s various conflicting statements on the late war seem to show that he felt the difficulty of this. Applied to foreign politics, pacifism either stops being pacifist or becomes appeasement. Moreover the assumption, which served Gandhi so well in dealing with individuals, that all human beings are more or less approachable and will respond to a generous gesture, needs to be seriously questioned. It is not necessarily true, for example, when you are dealing with lunatics. Then the question becomes: Who is sane? Was Hitler sane? And is it not possible for one whole culture to be insane by the standards of another? And, so far as one can gauge the feelings of whole nations, is there any apparent connection between a generous deed and a friendly response? Is gratitude a factor in international politics?

http://www.orwell.ru/library/reviews/gandhi/english/e_gandhi

Related posts:

Keeping power in a one-party state

Would this happen in a one-party state?

Did Hali ask Xi for this app when they met?

“There is freedom of speech, but I cannot guarantee freedom after speech”

 

Why Hongkies sang ‘Sing Hallelujah to the Lord’

I refer to HK: See the people walk, Hear the people sing.

Hallelujah to the Lord” became the unofficial anthem of crowds protesting against a controversial proposed law that would allow people accused of crimes in China to be extradited to the mainland not because the protesting Hongkies are Christians, or are ang moh tua kees or because CIA and MI6 operatives taught the organisers of the protesters the song in boot camp.

And definitely not because the protesters want to annoy Grandpa Xi and the other Chinese leaders who are all atheists.

Maybe it could to shame and irritate his head prefect in HK? After all Carrie Lam was once head prefect in a convent school and this song could be to remind her that as a devoted Roman Catholic she should not be the HK running dog of the atheistic Chinese Communist Party?

Here’s why according to BBC

For Christians in Hong Kong, the hymn is a sign of faith but also of their concerns that it’s not only political but also religious issues that are at stake, should the bill ever pass.

And

The hymn was picked up by other protesters – soon even non-Christians were singing it.

Because

“People picked up this song as it is short and easy to remember,” Edwin Chow, 19, acting president of the Hong Kong Federation of Catholic Students, told the BBC. “There’s only one line: ‘Sing Hallelujah to the Lord’.”

Also

The protesters said they sang it hoping it would have a calming effect on police, and would help diffuse tensions.

This was especially needed after police had earlier fired tear gas and shooting rubber bullets towards protesters.

Finally

The song also acted as a political shield, of sorts.

“According to the law, any religious assemblies in public areas are not considered as illegal, so if people sing hymns together, it could actually work as a protection and guarantee that [they] stay safe,” said Mr Chow.

“Therefore people started to sing this song to protect themselves.”

Btw, in case Terry Xu or Mad Dog is thinking of starting up a church, this loophole doesn’t exist in S’pore. Related post: Seelan Palay: Sylvia Lim was right

 

 

HK: See the people walk, Hear the people sing

IT WAS PROBABLY the largest political protest ever staged in Hong Kong. It may have been the biggest in China’s history. Organisers reckon that about 1.9m people joined the demonstration on June 16th. Even during the unrest in Tiananmen Square three decades ago, no single protest approached that scale.

Economist

They sang in English, “Do you hear the people sing?” and “Sing Hallelujah To The Lord”.

Organisers say two million people have turned out for a demonstration in Hong Kong, the latest large protest against a controversial extradition bill.

But what did the protests look like on the ground?

We collated images taken within a short time of each other that show the extent of the crowds in Hong Kong on Sunday.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-48655634

(Do look at the photos to see the scale of the protests.)

Which version would our Protection against Online Falsehoods and Manipulation say is fake? Grandpa Xi heard the Hongkies sing or Not fear of the people singing but fear of US growling made Xi chicken-out?

But maybe both reflect different facets of a very complicated situation.

What do u think?

HK demonstrations: What I’d like to know

How many of the protesters are mainland tourists or long term residents of HK from China.

The crowds are massive, no doubt about it. And Hongkies are really upset, no doubt about it: Not fear of the people singing but fear of US growling made Xi chicken-out.

But I’m curious about whether there are substantial numbers of mainlanders in the crowds, who are there really to protest against Xi.

The tourist numbers from China are staggering, fyi,

From January to November last year, about 58.6 million tourists visited Hong Kong, up 10.7 per cent from the previous year. Among them, 45.9 million were mainland tourists, an increase of 14.2 per cent from the same period in 2017.

In November, the number of mainland day trippers jumped 40.3 per cent year on year to a record 2.9 million, and accounted for 86.5 per cent of the city’s total of same-day arrivals.

Alan Au, a member of a Hung Hom community group, said it was common to see 300 mainland tourists blocking the streets as they waited for coaches in some parts of the district.

SCMP in January 2019

Not fear of the people singing but fear of US growling made Xi chicken-out

Further to this, Grandpa Xi heard the Hongkies sing, the truth seems to be a lot more complicated.

No, people power didn’t make Xi’s head prefect in HK suspend, as she claimed. rather than withdrawn the extradition bill, arguing the amendment was well intended but had been poorly communicated to the stupid ang moh tua kee Hongkies.

It all has to with America being the tua kee capable of destroying HK’s economy and damaging China. (Today, HK contributes a  mere 3% of China’s GNP, down from 20% in 1997 but when winter’s arrived in the form of an economic slow down and a trade skirmish with the US, every little bit helps.)

[T]he US, began eyeing the territory as another possible stick with which to beat Beijing in the trade war. Congress on Thursday introduced a bipartisan Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act that could remove the city’s unique trading privileges with the US if the government did not uphold its freedoms.

FT

As the BBC reported

US lawmakers have introduced a bill to amend the Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992. The amendment requires the US Secretary of State to “issue an annual certification of Hong Kong’s autonomy to justify special treatment” by the US.

“The bigger issue is probably that the global perception of Hong Kong as a separate part of China is under threat. And that includes official recognition of Hong Kong as a separate customs, immigration, tax and legal jurisdiction,” said David Webb, editor of Webb-site.com and long-time resident of Hong Kong.

“If Hong Kong loses its separate status then, for example, all of the duties that America has applied to Chinese exports would apply to Hong Kong exports. And any prohibitions on transfers of high grade technology to China would apply to Hong Kong as well.”

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48618585

The U-turn is a humiliation for Xi and Beijing. The people of HK will suffer.

Related post: Keeping power in a one-party state

 

Grandpa Xi heard the Hongkies sing

And backed off.

His head prefect in HK emphasised she had suspended rather than withdrawn the bill, arguing the amendment was well intended but had been poorly communicated to the stupid ang moh tua kee Hongkies. Ms Carrie Lam, Hong Kong’s chief executive, was the head prefect in her HK convent school, really.

This song is not allowed to be streamed in China, but the Hongkies sang it as they protested and won a victory that they did not expect to win.

Do you hear the people sing?
Singing the songs of angry men?
It is the music of the people
Who will not be slaves again!
When the beating of your heart
Echoes the beating of the drums
There is a life about to start
When tomorrow comes!

Will you join in our crusade?
Who will be strong and stand with me?
Somewhere beyond the barricade
Is there a world you long to see?

Then join in the fight
That will give you the right to be free!

Do you hear the people sing?
Singing the songs of angry men?
It is the music of the people

Who will not be slaves again!
When the beating of your heart
Echoes the beating of the drums
There is a life about to start
When tomorrow comes!

Will you give all you can give
So that our banner may advance
Some will fall and some will live
Will you stand up and take your chance?
The blood of the martyrs
Will water the meadows of France!

Do you hear the people sing?
Singing the songs of angry men?
It is the music of the people
Who will not be slaves again!
When the beating of your heart
Echoes the beating of the drums
There is a life about to start
When tomorrow comes

The bad news is that the students and others who supposedly sang this song in 1848 were killed in the French predecessor of Tiananmen.

But it’s a famous victory still for the Hongkies. So let’s give them three cheers. And hope for the best.

S’pore: 0, HK: 1

Anheuser-Busch InBev filed on Friday to list a minority stake (probably 15%) in Budweiser Brewing Company APAC, in what will be one of the biggest floats in Hong Kong’s history, if an IPO happens

Budweiser Brewing Company APAC, part of the AB InBev group and the largest beer company in Asia Pacific by sales value.

Chinese miss out on two of life’s greatest pleasures

One is enjoying diary products like fresh milk, butter and cheese because of lactose intolerance:

Approximately 65 percent of the human population has a reduced ability to digest lactose after infancy. Lactose intolerance in adulthood is most prevalent in people of East Asian descent, affecting more than 90 percent of adults in some of these communities.

Lactose intolerance – Genetics Home Reference – NIH

https://ghr.nlm.nih.gov/condition/lactose-intolerance

The other is not being able to enjoy booze by having a combination of genes that puts us off drinking alcohol. It causes an unpleasant reaction and makes them feel unwell.

Further to Fake news on alcohol and stroke, if you did not read the BBC article I referenced there, you’d have missed something the bit about alcohol intolerance:

East Asian countries are useful places to study the effects of alcohol.

Many people with Chinese ancestry have a combination of genes that puts them off drinking alcohol. It causes an unpleasant reaction and makes them feel unwell.

As a result, there is a wide variation of alcohol intake in China – one in three men doesn’t drink and very few women do.

But by comparing the health outcomes of drinkers and non-drinkers according to their genetic profile, scientists say they have been able to assess – with much more certainty than before – the direct effects of alcohol on stroke risk, distinct from any other factors.

Western populations don’t possess these genes, so it would be impossible to carry out a similar study here.

And most studies are observational, which makes it’s difficult to judge which factor is causing what effect.

Dr Iona Millwood, study author and senior epidemiologist at the University of Oxford, said: “Our genetic analyses have helped us understand the cause and effect relationships.”

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-47817650

No wonder, we Chinese compensate for these defects by eating sea slugs, chicken claws, sharks’ fin and other exotics.

 

HSBC: another view

Further to HSBC: Looking vulnerable, the view from an institutional broker, here’s another view from the Investors Chronicle, a respected retail investor magazine.

It says “Buy: HSBC”

HSBC’s progress is encouraging. That bodes well for the maintenance of its dividend, which was last cut in 2009.

showing the retail emphasis on sustainable dividend. (Think: Hyflux is warning of investing in high dividend yield stocks.)

It says HSBC’s Asia pivot makes it a natural victim of US-China trade rows. Chairman Mark Tucker blamed market weakness during the fourth quarter for lower-than-expected revenue for 2018: must have financed large share purchases on margin.

Combined with a 6 per cent rise in adjusted operating expenses as the lender seeks to expand across the northern China and Pearl Delta areas, this resulted in negative adjusted “jaws” – the difference between the rates of change in revenue and costs — of 1.2 per cent.

In its global banking and markets business, economic uncertainty and reduced primary issuance led to lower adjusted rates and credit revenue. But this was partially offset by stronger demand for securities services and global cash management liquidity.

Retail banking and wealth management were much stronger, posting an 8 per cent rise in net operating income. That business benefited from a 9 per cent rise in lending and improved deposit margins due to rising interest rates.

But mortgage lending grew in the UK and Hong Kong, although margins shrank.

Higher lending and adverse foreign exchange movements across business lines also resulted in an increase in adjusted risk-weighted assets, which reduced the common equity tier one ratio to 14 per cent from 14.5 per cent in the prior year. However, the return on tangible equity improved by 1.8 percentage points to 8.6 per cent, with management reiterating its target to grow that figure to over 11 per cent by 2020.

Expected credit losses were slightly higher than loan impairment charges in 2017: blame Brexit and trade rows. Credit quality in the UK will get worse.

Analysts at Shore Capital expect adjusted net tangible assets of 732 cents (US) a share at the December 2019 year-end, up from 701 cents at the same time in the previous year.

HSBC: Looking vulnerable

Because investors are likely to be disappointed: slower revenue growth, no share-buy back and dividend yield could go up (share price falls).

JPMorgan Cazenove, a leading UK broker, downgraded HSBC to “underweight” from “neutral” with a 620p target on the back of the bank’s full-year results on Tuesday. Among the broker’s concerns was a rise in funding costs as Hibor — a measure of lending costs between banks in Hong Kong — underperforms Libor, the equivalent UK rate.

Although we rate HSBC’s management highly and view the group on the right strategic path long term, we believe that revenue growth pressures (partly as a result of the changed outlook for US rate hikes, a widening Libor-Hibor gap and macro uncertainty) alongside cost investment needs could weigh on the [return on tangible equity] outlook for longer than we previously thought.”

With HSBC unlikely to deliver an 11% on tangible equity by 2020, its premium valuation of 1.2 times book value looked exposed, JPMorgan said. It added that while HSBC no longer had a capital surplus, but investors continued to expect a share buyback this year.

The dividend of 51 cents (US) should remain stable over the medium term but the yield of 6% (in line with other UK banks) might move higher (i.e. because share price falls) because of the the uncertainties faced,

HO Ho Ho: What Temasek forgot when it bot into StanChart

There’s an FT report that Temasek is putting pressure on StanChart to shape up. It’s tired of being reminded that under the current CEO, the share price has fallen 40%. Worse, share price is roughly at half of Temasek’s entry point 13 years ago.

 

Temasek forgot when it bot into  StanChart that StanChart did not and still does not have have a major, thriving, prosperous market that it dominates.

Although it’s smaller than the supertanker of HSBC, it doesn’t have the engine of Hong Kong that HSBC does, so it’s taking every bit as long, if not longer, to reform. But we’re still very supportive.

(Hugh Young, head of Asia Pacific at Aberdeen Standard Investments, which holds a stake of about 5 per cent in the bank talking to the FT)

It also does not a client like the Lis.

The story of how two Chinese gentlemen made Hongkong Bank great is told in HSBC, Superman and another Cina superhero.

 

Hongkies can’t spell/ 2018 was not a gd yr for Cathay

2018 was a bad year for Cathay, and not only financially.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-45572275

Dr Goh’s HK counterpart had similar views on MRT and other major issues

Remember Khaw saying this?

It was a very different era. Finance was tight, so we really had to scrutinise every dollar of spending.

The government of the day thought very hard if we could really afford an MRT line. It took months to think through and debate through this major strategic decision.

It was not easy. Some of you who are younger might not remember.

But I remember, as a civil servant, the big debate which was televised on the options – an all-bus system or an MRT system.

There were proponents for the MRT, as a city without MRT is almost impossible. But there were others who were extremely worried whether we can really afford it.

So sometimes today we spend money as if money comes easily. We forget that it was not too long ago. So when there are people who criticise the North-South and East-West Lines on why we did not do this and that, we were simply short of cash.

http://www.todayonline.com/singapore/comparing-singapores-newest-and-oldest-mrt-lines

He left out the elephant in the room: Dr Goh Keng Swee. He wasn’t convinced that an MRT would be cost effective. Hence the scrutiny the project underwent, even after the cabinet (sans Goh) had agreed to build it.

A contemporary of his, Sir John Cowperthwaite, HK’s financial secretary (17 April 1961 – 30 June 1971) had earlier opposed the building of the MRT system in HK, citing the cost: despite the traffic jams in the streets. Construction only began after he retired.

Here’s more on Sir John Cowperthwaite, who came to HK as a British civil servant in 1945. He should be interesting to S’poreans because he had views, some like that of Dr Goh, some unlike, on how to have a prosperous, thriving economy in a small state.

Like Dr Goh, he was for

Low taxes, lax employment laws, absence of government debt, and free trade are all pillars of the Hong Kong experience of economic development.

And

No deficit government financing, which could merely push costs to a future generation and make the territory vulnerable to financial upheaval.

[…]

Public housing would be funded, but only for tiny flats; reservoirs would be built, but users would be charged.

[…]

Requests by industry for subsidies were routinely rejected.

Architect of Prosperity: Sir John Cowperthwaite and the Making of Hong Kong

https://www.economist.com/news/books-and-arts/21729983-sir-john-cowperthwaite-most-unlikely-things-bureaucrat-hero

Sounds like a PAPpy?

But throughout the 1960s, Cowperthwaite refused to implement free universal primary education, contributing to the relatively high illiteracy rate among today’s older generation in HK.

And he really believed in the importance of the private sector, unlike the PAP (not excluding Dr Goh) who talked the talk of the importance but the private sector,  but who made sure GLCs dominate the local economy.

“I myself tend to mistrust the judgment of anyone not involved in the actual process of risk-taking.” This faith was rewarded. As industries such as cotton spinning, enamelware and wigs declined and Cowperthwaite declined to offer assistance, businesses shifted their attention to promising areas such as toy and electronics production, and then finance. Migrants found work in the expanding industries, becoming a cog in a productive engine rather than merely a cost.

(Economist review)

But he allowed private sector cartels to continue to dominate the HK economy. In his time, it was the Hongs (Jardines, Swire and other ang moh Hongs) and the big banks (HSBC and StanChart).  A tradition continued today with local property cos controlling the property mkt (no massive affordable public housing), and Cheung Kong, Jardines and Swire having a big share of the retail mkt, and HSBC and Bank of China dominating the finance sector.

 

 

Creating shareholder value the HK way

Real dedication by CEO and founder: he died.

CEC International Holdings, the owner of a successful Hong Kong retail chain focused on snacks and drinks imported from across Asia, saw its share price more than double in value on Monday following the death of its founder and chief executive.

(FT on Tueday)

Why?

The jump also came after the chair of retailer Best Mart 360 told local newspaper Apple Daily he was interested in acquiring CEC for less than HK$1bn. Monday’s jump took CEC’s market capitalisation to HK$1.27bn.

(FT on Tueday)

At time of writing shares are 10% off Monday’s close.

HoHoHo: StanChart disappoints, again

On Tuesday (London time), StanChart reported half-year operating income of US$7.6bn, 6% more than in the same period last year. The stock dropped 3.5% trading because operating income was below expectations. Blame higher IT spending: costs in general have outgrown revenues by a whole percentage point. Not good.

FT’s Lex

StanChart investors must be counting on costs soon falling, relative to revenues. The hope should be for a leaner and cleaner bank ready to grow at the bottom of the next cycle.

adding

Shares in HSBC, another London-listed bank with an Asian focus, have climbed 63 per cent in the past two years, compared to 13 per cent at StanChart.

 

 

S’poreans and mainlanders are the real Chinese

Honkies and Taiwanese are not,

We and mainlanders don’t believe in renting short term (99 yr leases are not short term rental leases no matter what Goh Meng Seng and other cybernuts think)

Hongkies love PAP govt, diss their govt

TOC, The Indians and other cybernut pubkications don’t report: “Hongkongers admire Singapore more than own city”

In a University of Hong Kong Public Opinion Programme poll asking 502 Hongkongers how they feel about different governments, the Lion City came out on top in a list of 14 places.

In contrast, Hong Kong was ranked 11th and Canada slipped to 2nd, from 1st in August last year. The US was at the bottom of the list of places that included regions in Greater China and other countries

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/community/article/2156855/hong-kongs-love-affair-singapore-continues-residents-give

Note that the piece not written by any of the ex-ST constructive, nation-building journalists in the SCMP newsroom. They now rather bite the hand that once fed them well. Once a Judas, always a Judas.

Anyway grass ia always greener on the other side. Juz ask Goh Meng Seng who even thinks that the cost of housing is lower in HK. Can you believe that? But then he’s a cybernut who helped the PAP’s preferred candidate win in 2011 PE. With enemies like him, how can the PAP ever lose?

 

HoHoHo: More money for Budget

Soon, Temasek will be contributing a bit more to the Budget.

“StanChart restarts dividends as profit returns” is the FT’s headline on the turnaround in StanChart. It stopped paying dividends several years ago.

And there’s still plenty of room for it to improve

[D]espite stellar economic growth in Asia, which accounts for over two-thirds of underlying pre-tax profit, the group is still destroying economic value. Return on equity, at 1.7 percent or 3.5 percent excluding exceptional items, is still far below the group’s cost of equity, which is probably more like 10 percent. Costs are rising, even as the group clamps down on loan losses.

After years of retrenchment, Winters needs turbocharged revenue growth and restraint on costs to hit his modest medium-term target for an ROE of 8 percent. Suppose operating costs grow just 2 percent annually, with flat loan losses and restructuring charges and taxes at 30 percent. StanChart would need 7 percent annual revenue growth to fulfil its aim by 2020, according to a Breakingviews calculation. That is more than double last year’s rate and at the top of the bank’s projected 5 to 7 percent range.

https://www.breakingviews.com/considered-view/stanchart-shareholders-pay-winters-a-compliment/

If things work out at StanChart (and elsewhere), maybe GST increase can be delayed? Dream on, pigs will fly first.

Update at 7.30am Chris K responded:

News like this does not impact the NIR Temasek delivers the budget becos the contribution is based on expected real returns over the long run.

I responded:

So long as no transparency shows how flakely is NIR. It’s want the PAP administration says it is.

FT description of Hongkies

Hong Kong has long had a lively retail investor scheme. Hong Kongers do not care much for games of chance, like roulette or lotteries. They prefer wagers on games of skill like horseracing, mahjong – and leveraged equity trading. Warrants are a preferred vehicle. But the uncomfortable reality is that spikes in warrant trading volume are an excellent sell signal. An increase in retail trading activity often presages a market fall.

FT: Letter from Lex

Why our housing valuations look decent?

I was fooling around with this https://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2018/02/daily-chart-5 and among other things compared S’pore property valuations with that of HK. Something didn’t seem right about the S’pore valuations when I remembered some Bloomberg stuff I saw in 2016.

This is something cybernuts don’t tell us, especially the one who jets in from HK on his private jet to lecture us on why life in HK is a lot better in HK and why we must all sing “The East is Red” and even the Malays and Indians must be Chinese patriots.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Because of public housing, housing here is a lot more affordable.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-06/singapore-crushing-hong-kong-in-race-to-bring-down-home-prices

Now if the PAP administration were a lot less obssesed about “stealing from the reserves” and “market pricing” (Market pricing? Market market pricing when the state is the largest player in the market what with its control of supply?), housing here could be a lot more affordable.

Coming back to local property prices, if u had keyed in S’pore in the Economist’s interactive model, like I did, you would have seen that valuations (historical and present) here are pretty decent. I suspect public housing data is included. Even if this is not, the public sector housing affects the private sector valuations.

 

 

HO HO HO: How Shi**y is StanChart?

In 2016, when China as a country grew at close to 7 per cent, StanChart’s revenue across greater China and north Asia declined by 15 per cent. While Southeast Asia GDP grew by nearly 5 per cent, StanChart’s revenue there shrank by 5 per cent. And in Africa and the Middle-East, another fast-growing region, the bank’s revenue was down 4 per cent. StanChart’s full-year numbers for 2017 have yet to be published, but at the last count its ROE was running at about 5 per cent …

Today’s FT

Job mkt for NTU maths grads

But first contrasting HK and S’pore in one sentence:

Tycoons are as synonymous with the story of modern Hong Kong as founding prime minister Lee Kuan Yew is with Singapore.

FT

But thinking about it, both share a common preoblem resulting from this contrast.

The article then goes on to analyse why young Hongkies are unhappy with the legacy of these tycoons. They dominate the HK economy, stifying the aspirations and creativity of the young. Even a tycoon’s heir can feel so frustrated that he has to enter the family business, in order to get on.

Sounds like the legacy that Harry left us. Because of Hard Truths, TLCs and other GLCs dominate our economy, stifling the aspirations and creativity of the young.

And the job market ain’t that good even for elite local grads.

Recently I spoke to a friend whose daughter, an NTU maths scholar, is just about to join a big local bank’s data mining development team on a one year internship (very decent pay). So far so good.

But the catch is that out of the previous cohort of NTU maths grads who finished their internships, only 3 out of 10 manage to get permanent jobs, some continuing on a yr to yr contract. They are told it’s the economy.

Meanwhile LKY’s son rows with his siblings and fixed the presidency so that a presidency reserved only for Malays, has none of the three declared candidates having an i/c saying “Malay”. As I wrote here:

The PAP’s candidate and a candidate who speaks Malay badly both have i/cs saying “Indian” while the third person has one saying “Pakistani”. Even for me who knows about the thin culture line between Malays and some Indian Muslims* am shocked that there isn’t someone with an i/c saying “Malay” willing to stand. Don’t want to be regarded as selling out to the PAP isit? Or unlike “Indians” and “Pakistanis” feeling piseh to stand in a presidency reserved only for “Malays”.

Go to tech city: No masterplans or highly paid technocrats

It juz has smart entrepreneurs that want to make money.

A few days later than promised because the temptation to pour scorn on Hali’s BS was too great. I had promised to talk about a place that even Silicon Valley envied; a place that grew without master plans drawn up by highly paid “technocrats”.

The “predominant epicenter of high-tech design and manufacturing in the world” is Shenzhen http://www.bbc.com/capital/gallery/20170809-inside-chinas-skyscraper-capital Shenzhen shows how a high-tech hub can develop without master plans or MNCs . It was a low-cost manufacturing centre for HK businesses that juz kept on moving up market without master plans being drawn up by bureaucrats. Granted its economic zone status was granted by fiat but then HK and S’pore were similarly kick started.

Shenzhen has risen to become the predominant epicenter of high-tech design and manufacturing in the world. Variously called the “world’s factory,” “the new Silicon Valley,” and the “maker’s dream city,” Shenzhen has a complete ecosystem that contains everything needed for all stages of electronics production all in one place. This has turned the city into a staging ground for large high-tech companies, rising startups, and independent innovators from all over the world looking to get their stuff made as efficiently as possible. Tech giants like Huawei, ZTE , and Tencent all got their starts here, and many more companies seem to be on the way up.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadeshepard/2016/07/14/a-look-inside-shenzhens-high-tech-empire/

And Shenzhen’s growth has benefited HK which despite its political problems outperforms S’pore. Once Shenzhen provided HK manufacturers with low-cost facilities, now Shenzhen’s manufacturers use HK to provide services like finance, insurance etc.

 

Finally HSBC pleasantly surprises

Just before the CEO retires. As Guardian says:

HSBC’s tale also shows what can happen when a big international bank stops shooting itself in the foot and avoids scandal. The cleanup of HSBC – forced by past scandals, notably the £1.2bn fine in the US for money-laundering offences plus tax avoidance scams in Switzerland – is finally delivering for shareholders.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2017/jul/31/hsbc-shows-what-happens-when-a-bank-stops-shooting-itself-in-the-foot

And from NYT Dealbook

HSBC plans to buy back up to $2 billion in shares after its performance proved better than expected in the second quarter.

The London-based bank has been overhauling its operations, shedding tens of thousands of jobs, selling underperforming businesses and shrinking its global investment banking business. And as its prospects have improved, it has announced $5.5 billion in share repurchases since the second half of last year.

Profit was up to $3.9 billion in the second quarter, from $2.5 billion the year before.

The bank is also headed toward a change of leadership. Mark Tucker, the chief executive of AIA, will replace Douglas Flint as chairman in October. Mr. Tucker will have to find a chief executive to replace Stuart Gulliver, the chief executive, who plans to retire.

Waz this BS about China’s influence growing?

Uncle Redbean, Goh Meng Seng (Remember this adviser of wannabe-president TKL?) and other China tua kee nuts keep dissing the PAP administration for not kow-towing to Xi. They say S’pore should lick China’s ass because China is the coming hegemon. After all PM’s dad licked US’s ass and more.

To put things in perspective: if Hongkies are not happy with China, what does this show about China’s influence in the wider world? It can’t even influence opinion in HK to like it.

Hong Kong finds Beijing flunking soft-power test

China is flunking the soft-power test with Hong Kong. President Xi Jinping will visit the city to commemorate the 20-year anniversary of its triumphant return to Chinese control. But Beijing’s grip over hearts and minds in Hong Kong is weakening. That is a problem, since this a primarily ethnically Chinese, ruthlessly pragmatic city – people who one would expect to be sympathetic.

…

In Hong Kong, China has revealed an unfortunate pattern duplicated in other countries: a preference for working with elites, popular or not; a willingness to use money – or force – to silence criticism; disregard for the rule of law when it doesn’t suit current needs; and a general disdain for the carrot when the stick will do.

The irony is that Beijing is spending as never before on “soft power,” a phrase best simplified as “convincing other people to like you, and to want what you want.” It is rolling state television stations out across Africa, buying newspapers in Australia and radio stations in the United States. The Confucius Institutes, an unapologetic propaganda effort, subsidize pro-China education around the world.

But this hasn’t drowned out headlines from Hong Kong. For all the spending, Pew Global Research polls show negative views of China have increased in recent years. Beijing can throw money around all it wants, but if even Hong Kong won’t buy the message China is selling, it is hard to see it travelling well elsewhere.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-politics-breakingviews-idUSKBN19J0C3

Charts that show Hongkies are getting, feeling “less Chinese”. http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/HONGKONG-POLL/010020KY1EB/index.html

No point listing in HK

KPM Holdings, a Singapore sign-maker, closed down 44% yesterday as microchips had a second day of falls.

List here and falls also the same leh.

LKY talked cock on UBS/ Ang mohs that really invest for long term

GIC’s sale of at a loss of part of its stake in UBS reminded me that one Harry Lee boasted that S’pore was even more long term than Buffett: it had a 30 yr horizon. Well he said that in 2007 or 2008 after GIC bot UBS and Citi and Temask bot Barclays (sold) amd Merrill Lynch (disappeared), so it turns out he was talking cock: like on being a good friend of China? He was a running dog of the US going by the quality of the US crowd versus that of the PRC crowd at his funeral.

Now this is serious long term

— Jardines (controlling shareholder of Hongkong Land where the land in Central now resides) first bought freehold land in Central in 1901, and

— HSBC has owned its nearby site since 1866.

And that’s nothing. The Duke of Westminster has properties in central London dating from the 17th century.

HK, S’pore compared

Despite what a S’porean Oppo politician living in HK says, life here is surely better (The quotes about HK and Hongkies come from http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-38623439)

Hong Kongers enjoy free speech and a free press, but don’t have the right to democratic elections – meaning they can readily discuss what makes them unhappy, but have limited political means to change things.

We happier because we don’t enjoy free speech and a free press and so not frus (sans cybernuts like Oxygen) that our free but unfair elections can never change things. So why does Mad Dog Chee keep on banging his head against the wall? He doesn’t read his own analysis of S’pore isit? And what weed is he giving to smart people like Dr Paul to follow him? Police must investigate.

Hong Kong often ranks as having the least affordable housing in the world – and this “affects young people’s family planning, and their choice of future careers,” Dr Wong says.

Our public housing is affordable We got PAP looking after us from cradle to grave via the HDB system. More on this one of these days. Even TOC (writer Chris Kuan contributing) says “The reply by Housing Development Board (HDB) on resale prices and Lease Buyback Scheme (LBS) sums don’t seem to add up to resale buyers overpaying.” https://www.theonlinecitizen.com/2017/04/28/hdb-reply-on-resale-prices-and-hdb-lbs-example-show-resale-buyer-are-not-overpaying/

The LBS is value fot money, is what Chris K wrote. Err wondering if Terry knew what he was publishing: a pro PAP piece?

Jennifer grew up in a public estate with her parents and brother – but says after her brother got married, the small two-bedroom flat became extremely cramped.

“For almost a year, I had to sleep on a sofa in the living room.”

Not having a room meant she struggled to sleep properly after a long day at work, especially after her brother and his wife had their first baby.

We got more room for sex.

According to one study, Hong Kong’s young people are the unhappiest they have been in a decade – and the least likely, of all age groups, to agree with the statement “life is really worth living”.

Other surveys find that 60% of those aged 18-29 want to emigrate, and 80% are unhappy with the political situation.

If Hong Kong’s youth appear particularly unhappy, it might be because of the territory’s unusual situation. It’s technically one of the richest territories in Asia, but also has one of the worst wealth gaps.

We not that bad.

As my FB avatar pointed out to Chris Kuan when I read his LBS piece,

Glad to see u realise that the faith of the 70% in PAP is not misplaced. LOL. Seriously, bet u a lot of the cybernuts following u on FB will stop following u …

Btw, anyone knows what happened to that Oppo politician living in HK who used to tell us that everything in HK is a lot better than in S’pore. He gone AWOL? Or MIA? Or in detention in China?

DBS HK info leak affects clients here too

A DBS customer here I know says that he had getting overseas calls asking him to take out loans from DBS. He was surprised to get the calls and when he asked how he got on the call list, the line went dead, only for another call to come later.

Telemarketers contacted DBS clients to try to get them to borrow from the bank, with the employees and the call center splitting commissions, Apple Daily reported, without citing a source for its information. Some employees were sales staff who were authorized to sell loan products in branches or on the street but not by cold calling, it said.

Some DBS staff allegedly bribed department managers to get client data, including names and contact details, Apple Daily reported.

More from https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-09/hkma-expresses-concern-after-report-of-dbs-arrests-in-hong-kong

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority expressed concern after a newspaper said DBS Group Holdings Ltd. staff were arrested in a probe connected with an alleged leak of customer data.

The city’s Independent Commission Against Corruption began investigating after the data were supplied to a telemarketing center in mainland China, Apple Daily reported.

The Singapore-based DBS disputed the newspaper’s report that more than 20 current and former staff had been arrested, but wouldn’t specify a number.

 

 

 

Gd Cantonese description of our parliament?

‘Rubbish Council’

The word rubbish also sounds like legislative in Cantonese so obviously….

In HK, the Legislative Council (LegCo) is the body that passes and rejects laws, and approves the government’s budget. It’s HK’s parliament.

Some call it “Rubbish Council” (punning on how the words “legislative” and “rubbish” sound similar in Cantonese), arguing the legislators are all talk and no action. BBC Online

Like in S’pore, major constitutional changes, including changes to the voting system, need to be passed by a two-thirds majority in the council (parly here). Pro-Beijing parties always win more seats but the “democrat” lobby always have at least 24 seats so they can veto changes they disagree with. And they’ve used this power repeatedly

In the latest LegCo elections on Sunday, the “democrat” lobby retained its veto power. They now have 30 seats.

Here the PAP can suka suka change the constitution because it has more than two-thirds majority, courtesy of 60- 70% of the voters.

Even if LegCo is Rubbish Council, the “democrat” lobby has a veto on constitutional changes.

Funny Goh Meng Seng and Uncle Redbean don’t praise the Hongkies for being smart enough to ensure that the pro-Beijing parties and China can be thwarted.

FYI, going in for cataract surgery on the right eye later today. After the final post op check-up (left eye) on Monday was offered an op on Tuesday on the right.

Why HSBC owed UK one cont’d

As I reported earlier many shareholders were disappointed that HSBC decide to remain HQed in the UK, and not retuen to HK.

Then it emerged that in 2012 Mr Osborne, the then UK Chancellorm interceded in the US Justice Department’s investigation into HSBC over money laundered through its American branches by Mexican drug lords. The DoJ was considering bringing charges on top of the fines it imposed on the bank, Britain’s biggest, but Mr Osborne argued that this would destabilise a “systemically important financial institution” and lead to “contagion”.

Now NYT Dealbook tells us more about how this intervention affected the DoJ’s decision to go easy on the maeco-bank

A BANK TOO BIG TO JAIL If you’ve ever wondered why the 2008 financial crisis generated almost no criminal prosecutions of large banks and their top executives, you should read the congressional report, “Too Big to Jail,” Gretchen Morgenson writes in Fair Game.

The report examines the Justice Department’s settlement with HSBC in 2012 after accusations that it laundered nearly $900 million for drug traffickers and processed transactions on behalf of countries subject to United States sanctions. It shows how regulators and prosecutors turned a potential criminal prosecution of HSBC into a watered-down settlement that insulated its executives and failed to take into account the full scope of the bank’s violations.

The bank and its American Subsidiary, HSBC Bank USA, agreed to pay almost $2 billion under the settlement, striking a deferred prosecution arrangement that remains in place. Under such deals, the government agrees to delay or forgo prosecution of a company if it promises to change its behavior.

The report concluded that the Justice Department’s leadership overruled an internal recommendation to prosecute HSBC, citing concerns “that prosecuting the bank ‘could result in a global financial disaster.'”

Peter Carr, a spokesman for the Justice Department, said it was “committed to aggressively investigating allegations of wrongdoing at financial institutions, and, along with our law enforcement partners, holding individuals and corporations responsible for their conduct.”

The facts outlined by prosecutors were damning enough to raise questions about why the bank had not been subject to harsher treatment and fueled the view that large financial institutions are not only too big to fail, but also too significant to be prosecuted criminally.

“The fact that so many of these cases are settled rather than going to court means we don’t get an airing of facts and challenges of facts,” said Edward J. Kane, a professor of finance at Boston College and an authority on regulatory failures. The report should be viewed as “evidence of an abuse of the regulatory system,” he added. “And unless proven otherwise, this is just the tip of the iceberg.”

S’pore, Asean on risky list

Indonesia and PinoyLand head the list, HK is a pretty safe place.

CrossBorder Capital said its Emerging Markets Risk Index fell sharply in May and is now at its lowest level since 2012, having peaked in early 2015.

This measure is based on three components: financing risk, which measures the ability of EM entities to roll over their debt; forex risk, driven by the quality of liquidity in a country and how dependent it is on central bank money; and exposure risk, which flashes a warning sign if a high proportion of investment in a country is in risk assets such as equities and corporate debt, rather than lower-risk government bonds and cash.

FT

2047 financial problem in HK

From NYT Deal book

Expiration Date on China’s Promises Stokes Unease in Hong Kong Housing Most banks have yet to formulate mortgage policies beyond 2047, when an agreement guaranteeing the city a high degree of autonomy runs out.

• NYT »

I’m sure Uncle Redbean and Goh Meng Seng will scold the banks foer being afraid. They look forward to the day when Chinese “rule of law” prevails in HK.

 

How come HK got minimum wages but more competitive?

Don’t PAP ministers insist that minimum wages will destroy the S’pore economy?

These tots crossed my mind when I read the headline:

Singapore Loses to Hong Kong in Race for Most Competitive

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-09/singapore-loses-to-hong-kong-in-race-for-most-competitive

But after reading the report, more nuanced tots came to mind.

One tot: S’poreans want to restrict the flow of FTs but this it seems makes S’pore less competitive.

Singapore’s stricter rules on hiring foreign labor, which adds to business costs.

“The key difference between the two territories is Singapore’s restrictions on importing foreign labor, and their policy of boosting labor costs to discourage companies from being dependent on foreign labor,” said Brian Tan, an economist at Nomura in Singapore. “When you push labor costs, that’s going to have an effect on competitiveness.”

… Hong Kong’s labor market as more competitive than in Singapore, with the China-controlled territory improving from 2015 on scores such as working hours, skill levels, unemployment legislation and immigration levels.

Hong Kong also leads Singapore on business efficiency, including productivity and here PAP administration can’t blame the plebs management practices, according to IMD.

Next, there seems to be a disconnect between what the local PMETs (and even this retiree) feel and the “experts” say: FT policy to us is not restrictive what with FTs being allowed to become drivers and barbers.

Another tot:“It’s not just the economy, stupid,” says a poster by the Brexit campaign in the UK.  And one of its charismatic leaders surely is right when he says, “We need to value people’s quality of life and standards of living and not just national GDP figures.” (But Brexit would say these rhings. The conventional economic wisdom is that the UK is doomed economically if it leaves the EU.)

Coming back to HK’s liberal FT policies: HK is Goh Meng Seng’s paradise on earth. Funny he doesn’t laud HK’s liberal immigration policies. He’s got his family there but thinks he is entitled to lecture us on the failings of the PAP. Surely the PAP in doing the popular thing (restricting FTs) is doing the wrong thing, and HK , GMS’s paradise on earth, the right thing?

Juz remember for S’poreans now:“It’s not just the economy, stupid. and”“We need to value people’s quality of life and standards of living and not just national GDP figures.”

 

HK gives finger to Soros

NYT Dealbook

Stocks have been surging since February, helped by promising corporate earnings in the United States, the recovery of oil prices and indications of restraint on interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve.

There may be question marks over many parts of Hong Kong’s economy, but stocks there seemed to have shrugged all that off. The Hang Seng index rose 1.8 percent on Thursday, while the MSCI Hong Kong Index closed at its highest point since Nov. 24. Optimists say concerns over monetary tightening from the Federal Reserve and the weakening renminbi have eased, and the shares are too cheap to pass up, Bloomberg News reports.

But George Soros is warning markets that China’s financial system is at risk and the rise in credit will be the downfall for world’s second biggest economy.

Speaking at an Asia Society event in New York on Wednesday, Soros said the similarities between the credit markets in China “eerily resemble” to those of the United States in 2007 before the financial crisis.

Recent stimulus packages in China have seen sharp rises in asset prices – namely in the housing and construction sector, but Soros believes these have been fueled by excessive lending to underperforming industries.

“Most of the money that banks are supplying [in China] is needed to keep bad debts and loss-making enterprises alive,” Soros said.

Read more: George Soros Worried about China’s Financial System | Investopedia http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/042116/george-soros-worried-about-chinas-financial-system.asp#ixzz46i1T5WmU
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HSBC: End in sight

HSBC Chief Said to Leave in Two Years Stuart Gulliver, HSBC’s chief executive, will step down in two years, and the bank has already started compiling a list of possible internal successors, The Sunday Times reports, citing senior sources.

• THE SUNDAY TIMES

NYT Dealbook

Naving him as CEO since 3011 is like us kanna Mah Bow Tan and Raymond Lim and Taacob at the same time.

Here’s an interesting tot from FT reader on executive salaries

“Chief executives are agents for owners, the shareholders. They should be treated the same way as football club managers. Your team performs badlly and you are promptly sacked. Preferably they should have only one or two year’s contracts, to be ended on expiry without compensation.”
By Brian Reading on Four ways to bring galactic executive pay back down to earth

 

HK$, M$ do well against US$

HSBC: Cut ang moh, Indian layabouts

People and assets.

HSBC’s so-so results prompts th=hs analysis. Results fr 2015 were flat after an expected US$1,9bn  4Q pre-tax profit turned into a loss of US$858m.

As at August 2015, Asia accounted for 69% of HSBC’spre-tax profits. And HK, China is where the money is minted.

Well these show that ang mohs and Indians: people and assets are lazing in the sun.

 

Yes India is in Asia but look at the number of Indians employed, more than the Honkies. HK is the place that HSBC makes its money, not india but there are more Indians working for HSBC than Hongkong people.

Related post: StanChart’s very own Little India.

Update at 10.45 am: http://blogs.reuters.com/breakingviews/2016/02/22/hsbc-shares-weighed-down-by-fear-of-future/

Update at 4.30pm; From NYT Dealbook: HSBC’S FOURTH-QUARTER LOSSES HSBC, Britain’s largest bank by assets, posted a loss of $1.33 billion for the three months ending Dec. 31,Chad Bray reports in DealBook. It had posted a profit of $511 million in the fourth quarter of 2014. Before taxes, the bank posted a loss of $858 million.

The bank also revealed in its earnings statement that it was under investigation by the Securities and Exchange Commission over its hiring practices in Asia. Several banks are under scrutiny after the commission opened an inquiry into whether JPMorgan Chase hired the children of powerful officials to help win lucrative business contracts.

HSBC did not give any further details on the investigation.

Its results were weighed down by restructuring costs, provisions for legal and regulatory matters, loan impairment charges and provisions for credit risk.

The bank is in the process of reshaping its operations, shedding tens of thousands of jobs, selling underperforming businesses and shrinking its global investment banking business.

“China’s slower economic growth will undoubtedly contribute to abumpier financial environment, but it is still expected to be the largest contributor to global growth,” Douglas Flint, the HSBC chairman, said in a news release.

Where S’pore trumps HK

Goh Meng Seng keeps on harping on how good life is in HK compared to S’pore. His daughter’s schooling and healhcare costs are cheaper* there. HK is Heaven, S’pore is Hell he implies.

Funny he doesn’t tell us that this is the 6th yr in a row that HK tops this index. It’s not uncommon for entire families to live in spaces less than 50 sq m. Btw, there are no  “cage homes” — tiny bunks stacked atop each other and enclosed by metal grating — here.

Nothing heard on thr issue of housing affordability in HK by Memg Seng who prefers to talk cock about the golden dinar.

The PAP administration can do more to bring affordbility levels to those at the end of the 90s, early noughties: 15- 20 yrs of paying mortgages not the present 25 yrs. But hey let’s not pretend that S’pore isn’t too bad.

And remember GMS’s silence on HK people critical of China diappearing. They on his UFO? (He believes in the UFOs, having claimed to have seen one (or was it in one?)

—————————————————-

*Err Value for money or not he doesn’t say. He focuses on the cost. Btw, he can’t persuade his wife to stay here but wants us to vote him into parly?

Data centre security: HK v S’pore

Parachutist extraordinaire, (Three GEs, three different parties, three GRCs and a diminishing share of votes) Goh Meng Seng is at it again, dissing S’pore in favour of his adopted home. HK. Where everything is better.

Here’s one area where S’pore is tops according to a HK newspaper.

The city-state’s financial regulator has set up a test for centres looking to host sensitive data from banks, called a threat vulnerability and risk assessment (TVRA).

In order to pass, the centres must weather severe natural disasters and even attacks from rocket-propelled grenades.

Intruders to one of these heavily guarded units should beware of the “mantraps”. This type of security door will lock down upon detecting a breach, trapping within bewildered, defenceless data burglers.

The test also has an equally stringent cyber security assessment in place to ensure the centres can keep most hackers out.

…

It could just be a marketing element from the regulator. But if it is, it’s a good one,” Krupal Raval, senior vice president for finance at Digital Realty, told the South China Morning Post in an interview. “From a banking perspective, we see more activity in Singapore. That’s because [regulators] are more proactive in reaching out.”

By “reaching out”, Raval means that the Monetary Authority of Singapore is signalling to banks and other financial institutions they can safely outsource sensitive data operations. The TVRA is the monetary authority’s stamp of approval on the centres at a time when a data breach on banks can spell out massive fines and a loss of reputation.

Digital Realty is one of the world’s biggest data centre companies, with major hubs in both Hong Kong and Singapore.

The 177,000 square-foot facility in Singapore has passed the TVRA test, something that the company said has attracted the interest of financial institutions looking to outsource sensitive financial data from clients.

Not so for Hong Kong, however. Digital Realty operates an even larger centre in the Tseung Kwan O industrial estate. It has a tier-III rating from the Uptime Institute, which is mainly concerned with how much time the plant must be shut down in order to be maintained.

While Raval says that site is just as secure as the one in Singapore, banks are less likely to outsource in Hong Kong without a financial regulator’s thumbs-up on the centres. Financial institutions in Singapore can outsource data operations only to centres that have the TVRA. Hong Kong regulators do not have an equivalent assessment. Spokespeople at the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau said they could not answer questions on the topic.

“It would be an opportunity for Hong Kong going forward,” Raval said of instituting a similar test. And a missed opportunity for the time being as companies holding sensitive client data search for safer but cheaper ways to do their businesses.

Banks have traditionally built expensive in-house data centres to reduce the risk of breaches. Offering regulator-approved choices for outsourcing the work presents an attractive option for financial firms moving to Asia.

The stringent regulations for data centres were just part of Singapore’s digital competitiveness. The 15 submarine fibre optics cables connected to the city have boosted connectivity and lowered costs, says Clement Goh, South Asia managing director at Equinix.

“As such, a multitude of companies are not just flocking to Singapore but choosing to headquarter their businesses here,” he says. Equinix is another one of the world’s biggest data centre companies with centres in both Hong Kong and Singapore. “This definitely gives us a competitive edge over our other counterparts in the region without such regulatory measures in place.”

http://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/1880844/singapore-mantrapping-away-hong-kong-financial-competitiveness?utm_source=outbrain&utm_medium=outbrain&utm_campaign=Outbrain-SG-business&utm_term=48752606

Good move by Yaacob’s sis

She was the deputy editor of ST and earlier this yr joined the SCMP in HK. Great timing. Alibaba will pay HK$2.06bn (US$266m; £175m) for SCMP.

Alibaba Buying South China Morning Post, Aiming to Influence Media The Chinese Internet giant said the deal was fueled by a desire to improve China’s image and offer an alternative to the biased lens of Western news outlets.

• NYT » | WHEN THE SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST WADED INTO CONTROVERSY | READ IN CHINESE

(NYT Dealbook)

Given her role* in ST as a cheerleader, class-monitor and enforcer for the PAP administration in ST, she’ll fit in very well under the new regime in HK. Her husband, Cherian George, a vocal social activist here (calling for a free press here is his obsession) but now lecturing on media (because of his obsession) in a HK uni, must be a happy man.

His wife can put her well-honed skills to good use in the service of Alibaba  to improve China’s image and offer an alternative to the biased lens of Western news outlets.

The couple must be oprning the champers.

——-

*She was a major-general in the Imperial Stormtroop Paper division and a padawan Sith Lord.

HK has an edge over us in IOT

“For IoT [internet of things], we see Hong Kong as much more advantageous than other places like Singapore because of its proximity to Shenzhen and the ease with which you can rapidly develop prototypes,” the FT quotes VXC David Chen . He helped investee co Hanson Robotics, move from Texas to Hong Kong’s Science Park

China really tua kee

Related post: http://www.bbc.com/news/business-34344926

 

HSBC’s 1979 gift keeps paying for itself

Li ka-shing accounted for 70% of HSBC’s global M&A advisory work in 2015 according to the FT.

HSBC sold him its stake in Hutchison Whampoa at a very special “For you only” price in 1979. This gave him face and showed that HSBC was aligning itself with the Chinese tycoons not the ang moh houses like Jardines. The then Oz CEO of Hutch said he could have gotten a better price for the stake. He was told by HSBC to mind his own business because he was an employee. HSBC had hired him to turn round Hutch which he.

Long term greed.

Shareholders need to find a new Sandberg and Purvis combination, with John Bond assisting. We know the damage (think sub-prime and Safra) that Bond can do when not supervised by adults. But I’m to harsh. During his tenure, HSBC had a one-for-one bonus and the ex-bonus share price almost reached the cum price. And there was a deeply discounted share issue to pay for the losses in the US.

But at the very least we need a  home-grown John Cryan*. Off with Gulliver’s head.

Gulliver sucks, like Anshu Jain and has to go. Capital markets investment bankers are not usually rational, cold and deep thinkers

As Lex rightly pointed out a few weeks ago, Hongkong Bank is trying to cut fat and grow muscle. Us sporty fatties know that this is real hard work and often fails. Taz why we are still fatties. Gulliver failed to trim fat and is lousy at PR (When Blatter said he couldn’t be expected to know everything at FIFA, I tot of Gulliver’s remarks on managing HSBC.). And now he wants to cut fat and grow muscle?

Failed in cutting costs and now wants to do something even hardEer? Pigs are likely to fly first. Or i’ll lose some serious fat and put some muscle.

He’d likely cut muscle and grow fat. Maybe expansion into the industrial heartland that is the Pearl Delta estuary isn’t the greatest idea? “Poll shows 25% of foreign businesses plan China job cuts,” is the top FT headline on my PC screen.

—-

*And if there’s no-one homegrown do what the Germans did, go find someone and put the chap in charge of the board’s audit committee. Great hands-on experience and sreep learning curve.

I always believe that in most cases there is always someone inhouse in a company with a strong corporate culture who can do the CEO’s job: the problem is finding the guy and the board having the balls to appoint the “unknown”.

PRCs spend more here than in HK

Casinos

PM must be doing shumething right, right?

Keep on banging yr balls in frustration Goh Meng Seng and his felow cybernuts, some of whom are so frus with the PAP that they blame the parents of the dead children for the deaths, sneering at their stupidity, as these cybernuts see it, for allowing the children to go to Sabah. More on this tom.

Singapore is sitting atop the world as the best city for FDI, ranking first globally in 2014 for the amount of greenfield inward investment it attracted. The city-state received two-and-a-half times more investment than its main rival, Hong Kong.

Also the top-ranked destination city in 2013, Singapore has strengthened its lead over London and Shanghai since then. According to figures from fDi Markets, an FT data service, 390 companies announced or launched 409 greenfield projects in Singapore last year, totalling an estimated $11bn in capital expenditure. London attracted 334 projects at $7bn, and Shanghai, 245 projects at $8bn. Hong Kong, the sixth-ranked city based on number of projects, received 162 projects at $5bn.

… Beijing, Bangalore, Dubai, São Paulo, Kuala Lumpur and Mexico City join S’pore , HK and Shanghai on the list.

FT

HSBC: Desperately seeking home-grown John Cryan

As a long suffering Hongkong Bank shareholder (But to be fair, I was there when John Bond called a bonus issue and the share price post bonus issue almost reached the pre bonus share price and I was there when the bank called for a massive deeply discounted during the crisis rights issue), who is the inhouse John Cryan*?

John Cryan the incoming UBS boss is rational, cold, deep thinker and no show-off – (NYT Dealbook).

Hongkong Bank needs a rational, cold, deep thinker who is not accident-prone.

Gulliver sucks, like Anshu Jain and has to go. Capital markets investment bankers are not usually rational, cold and deep thinkers

As Lex rightly points out, Hongkong Bank is trying to cut fat and grow muscle. Us sporty fatties know that this is real hard work and often fails. Taz why we are still fatties. Gulliver failed to trim fat and is lousy at PR (When Blatter said he couldn’t be expected to know everything at FIFA, I tot of Gulliver’s remarks on managing HSBC.). And now he wants to cut fat and grow muscle?

Failed in cutting costs and now wants to do something EVEN hardER? Pigs are likely to fly first.

He’d likely cut muscle and grow fat. Maybe expansion into the industrial heartland that is the Pearl Delta estuary isn’t the greatest idea? “Poll shows 25% of foreign businesses plan China job cuts,” is the top FT headline on my PC screen.

—-

*And if there’s no-one homegrown do what the Germans did, go find someone and put the chap in charge of the board’s audit committee. Great hands-on experience and sreep learning curve.

I always believe that in most cases there is always someone inhouse in a company with a strong corporate culture who can do the CEO’s job: the problem is finding the guy and the board having the balls to appoint the “unknown”.

HSBC should return to its roots

No not as a narco-bank for the modern day equvalent of the Jardines, Mathesons and Sassons who were the drug barons of the early 19th century smuggling opium into China

https://atans1.wordpress.com/2012/07/29/hsbc-doing-gods-work/#comments

https://atans1.wordpress.com/2012/12/23/hsbc-great-customer-shareholder-service/

It should remember that the HS stands for Hongkong and Shanghai and that it was once known as Hongkong Bank (when it was kicked out of China) https://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/04/02/hsbc-london-greater-china-bank/#comments

HSBC should focus on its jewel in the East

Here’s a good idea that (almost certainly) will not be announced by HSBC at its big strategy day on Tuesday: split the bank in two, and let only the Asian business base itself in Hong Kong.

UBS analyst John-Paul Crutchley is the author of the inspired demerger idea, which starts by arguing that “taking the accumulated baggage of the last three decades home may not be the best course of action”.

Baggage may seem a harsh description of the non-Asian parts of HSBC, including its UK retail banking operation, but Crutchley reckons the Hong Kong Asia-Pacific bank accounts for 80% of HSBC’s market valuation while deploying less than half the equity. It is the jewel. Indeed, the analyst reckons HSBC’s share price could be twice the current 619p if the group had decided in the 1980s to stick with its Asian franchise and not pursue all the deals and acquisitions elsewhere.

That observation illustrates the fact that HSBC management’s head-scratching over where to base the bank is something of a sideshow. Dodging the full impact of the UK bank levy by redomiciling the whole shebang to Hong Kong might save $1bn a year. But, even if one assumes such a saving is worth $12bn in today’s money, that’s only the equivalent of 44p on the share price. The bigger question is: what’s the best way to manage this vast sprawling group?

A demerger is not a cure-all but it would deliver a few advantages. The Hong Kong end could concentrate on combating increased competition from Chinese banks. Rump HSBC could be more vigorous in allocating capital to the parts of the business generating better returns. And, since regulators are piling heavier capital and compliance costs on very big global banks, both bits might benefit from being part of smaller organisations.

It’s an idea HSBC is highly unlikely to adopt. But a dose of bold thinking is arguably exactly what it needs to awaken a slumbering share price. Flogging the Brazilian and Turkish operations – Tuesday’s likely highlights – probably won’t be enough to excite shareholders.

From Guardian

HK ahead of us, Switzerland, M’sia behind us

HK people are more pragmatic than Singkies

Every year, thousands of one and two-year-olds in Hong Kong attend interviews to try to get into pre-school. Teachers, experts and tutors have been telling Helier Cheung what parents should expect.

http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-32308422

In S’pore, the parents unable to get their kids into good pre-schools and who have then to go to the PAP Foundation-run pre-schools, will, anonymously, be venting online their anger at the PAP administration. The cybernuts infesting TRE’s comments section will cheer these parents on.

When TRE republished https://atans1.wordpress.com/2015/04/29/cheapo-acs-mum-cant-sleep-over-50-donation/ the cybernuts agreed that this mum was right to be upset: ACS should not ask parents for money. Everything should be free.

Govt sees StanChart as risky?/ LKY’s 30-year investments revisited

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority says that it “takes a positive attitude should HSBC consider relocating its headquarters back to Hong Kong”, where it is the largest bank.

HSBC WEIGHS MOVE FROM LONDON HSBC was established in Hong Kong 150 years ago and moved its headquarters to London in 1993. Now it is considering a return trip. Citing changes in regulation, HSBC says it will study whether to relocate its headquarters out of London, reports Chad Bray in DealBook.

A big part of the issue is Britain’s bank levy, which was instituted in 2010 to help pay for the government’s financial crisis bailouts. While all banks operating in Britain pay the tax, Mr. Bray writes that “The levy hits British-based banks particularly hard, however, as they are taxed on their global balance sheets.” HSBC’s announcement could become a political issue as Britain nears a general election on May 7.

(NYT’s Dealbook)

Hongkong Bank is a HK quitter. It moved to UK in 1993, juz before PRC regained HK in 1997. But all is forgiven.

Both HK have S’pore have similar sized economies (about US$300bn in GDP).

HK is willing to be lender-of-last-resort to HSBC a bank with US$2,6 trillion in assets, despite HSBC being almost 9 times bigger than HK’s GDP.

Yet the S’pore authorities, it’s clear from hints in the FT, are unwilling to have StanChart HQed here (only 1.1 trillion in assets), despite Temasek being the largest single shareholder (which will benefit from reduced tax: HSBC shares were up 6% in HK yesterday), and despite many of StanChart’s operations being run from here.

The PAP administration is afraid of another of Temasek’s investments blowing up? After all StanChart is not as safe as our local banks: https://atans1.wordpress.com/2015/03/25/stanchart-not-as-solid-as-local-banks/

It also has weaker capital ratios than HSBC and the big US banks. So weak that the new CEO is expected to call for yet another massive rights issue.

Remember LKY and his bank investments that are forever? OK 30 yrs leh) Even longer than Buffett’s investments, he once said

In 2007/2008, our SWFs’ bot into UBS (GIC), Citi (GIC) and Merrill Lynch (Temasek) in a big way that ST characterised then as showing S’pore was a tua kee investor.

We lost serious money in two of the 30-yr investments by 2009.

— Estimate of Temasek’s realised losses on ML and Barclays:

https://atans1.wordpress.com/2010/08/04/swee-say-said-that-gd-temasek-lost-billions/

— Estimate of GIC’s loss on UBS as at 2011:

https://atans1.wordpress.com/2011/07/26/gic-not-reported-in-st-cna-or-today/

(BTW, Temasek’s 2012 purchase of Credit Suisse mandatory bonds:

https://atans1.wordpress.com/2012/07/22/third-time-lucky-temasek/)

 

 

 

Wanted: PRC princeling to be SGX’s CEO

The Singapore Exchange (SGX), Bank of China (BOC) and BOC International (BOCI) are extending their collaboration on renminbi (RMB) initiatives and joint marketing initiatives. (CNA today)

And yesterday SGX denied “market rumours” in news reports that it will establish a stock trading link along the lines of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect.

What this tells us is that SGX (and S’pore: Remember who PRC sent to LKY’s funeral: an unranked politburo member; this despite LKY’s and the PAP administration’s self-serving claims that he had great personal ties with the last two presidents. None of them turned up did they?) doesn’t have any serious China connections.

So SGX should make it a priority that its next CEO has the best possible China connections. As US banks are now wary of employing princelings (could run foul of US anti-corruption laws) with the right connections, SGX should have an easier time finding one with the right connections.

SGG has a lame duck ang mog FT  CEO, an Indian FT as president and Indon FT as head techie. (By the way all these are people where the “T” stands for “Trash”.) Why didn’t it even try to get a PRC FT? Taz how screwed up SGX is.

Why such a trading link is so impt:

A stock trading link with China will make it easier for Chinese investors to buy Singapore-listed shares.

The Hong Kong-Shanghai Stock Connect got off to a slow start when it was launched late last year. In recent weeks though, a surge of investments from mainland China has propelled Hong Kong stocks, including those of many smaller-cap firms, to multi-year highs. (CNA)

 

HSBC, Superman and another Cina superhero

(Or “HSBC and the right Chinese tycoons”)

HSBC is traditionally Li’s go-to bank for financing deals with its dominant local presence and a dedicated team to cover Li’s companies earned US$136 million in fees.Goldman Sachs has emerged as Li’s favored bank, pulling in an estimated $220 million in fees from Li’s two main companies Hutchison Whampoa and Cheung Kong Holdings since 2000.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/25/us-likashing-fees-idUSKBN0KY0YR20150125

Do remember that HSBC’s fees are on top of the interest it gets on its loans to these cos.

HSBC sold him Wharf once upon a time (the ang moh MD of wharf was angry as he said he could have arranged a better price) and both never looked back.

Which reminds me of the man who laid the foundation that made HSBC a global bank. Lee Quo-wei, the former chairman of Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Bank Ltd died on 12th August 2013, age 95

After joining Hang Seng Bank in 1946, Mr Lee was among those who transformed Hang Seng into the second-largest Hong Kong-based lender from a money-changing shop founded 13 years earlier. He helped Hang Seng end a bank run in 1965 with a capital injection from Hongkong & Shanghai Banking Corp, now HSBC. Four years later he was part of the team that created the Hang Seng Index.

Mr Lee was appointed executive chairman of Hang Seng Bank in 1983, according to a statement from current chairman Raymond Ch’ien. He retired in 1998, becoming honorary chairman and later honorary senior adviser.

If Hongkong Bank did not buy Hang Seng (at a good price from Hongkong Bank’s perspective, Mr Lee used to say to HSBC’s ang moh executives), HSBC, would not have become so entrenched into the HK economy. Look at StanChart and taz the best HSBC would have become.

As a shareholder of HSBC, I thank him.

Btw, It may be hard to imagine but once upon a time Bangkok Bank, OCBC were the rising banks while StanChart and HSBC were seen as the relics (albeit still powerful and rich) of colonialism.

Change a’coming at StanChart

The Sunday Telegraph reported that Temasek and Aberdeen (between them they hold 30% of StanChart) had told chairman Sir John Peace that he must find a replacement for Mr Sands within months or stand down himself.

FT reports the bank is looking to replace Peter Sands this year and has hired a headhunter to look for a successor ASAP. It says that Temasek and Aberdeen hold him responsible for not responding fast enough to a reversal of StanChart’s fortunes.

Double confirm StanChart’s rogue bank & PAP apologist is a fool

Remember a “PAP is always right” man KPKBing when StanChart was charged that the reulator was a “rogue regulator”. StanChart then made the dean of LKY School look dumb, really dumb, by pleading guilty.

Double confirm that StanChart is a rogue bank and the PAP apologist is a fool because now: The management of Standard Chartered is facing renewed pressure after being placed under fresh scrutiny by US regulators.

Two years after being fined more than £400m for breaching US sanctions towards Iran, the bank revealed that a two-year deferred prosecution agreement (DPA) that was imposed at the time was being extended for three years.

The US authorities are now investigating whether Standard Chartered breached its sanctions rules beyond 2007, the period when the previous offences for which the bank was penalised took place.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/dec/10/standard-chartered-management-us-regulators-investigation-sanctions

Looks like Santa didn’t bring Ho a nice Christmas present, giving her a turd instead. Juz look at share price chart from FT. [Chart added at 11.30 am]

Meng Seng would be KPKBing if this happened here

Seriously, I doubt S’poreans would be so tolerant of the u/m. GG would go red in the face and GMS would call this a trespass on our sovereignty. Well at least we know that GMS’s sojourn in HK hasn’t made him as friendly to the Pinoys as the Hongkies he so admires.

A COMMUNAL sit-in of sorts blocks the streets of Central, the main financial district of Hong Kong. The assembled crowd is peaceful. Some play cards or paw at their smartphones. Others lie under umbrellas, catching up on sleep. While the world in recent weeks has come to know the alliance of electoral-reform advocates who call themselves Occupy Central, this is something different. And it has been going on for years.

These participants are foreign domestic helpers, called “amahs” locally. There are about 320,000 of them in Hong Kong, almost exclusively female and mainly from the Philippines and Indonesia. Many spend their single day off each week sitting on flattened-out cardboard boxes, acquired from trolley carts pulled around by local entrepreneurs. Some build elaborate temporary houses with room partitions and outer walls. Anywhere else in the world this cardboard city would raise eyebrows, but not in Hong Kong.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/analects/2014/11/hong-kongs-domestic-helpers

S’pore property more expensive than Swiss city/ What Goh Meng Seng doesn’t tell us about HK

Prime International Residential Index – Square meters US$1m will buy

• Monaco 15
• Hong Kong 21
• London 25
• Singapore 33
• Geneva 35
• New York 40
• Sydney 41
• Paris 42
• Moscow 43
• Shanghai 46

Source: Knight Frank

Related posts:

https://atans1.wordpress.com/2014/06/04/swiss-cost-of-living-in-s-terms/

https://atans1.wordpress.com/2012/02/27/spore-despite-fts-an-expensive-place-to-make-pancakes/

GMS likes to tell us online the ways in which HK is a better place than S’pore. It’s gd to get the perspective of someone who jets between HK and S’ore and who is raising a family there while working there.

But he never tells us this

We are not among these cities ’cause of our “affordable” public housing that is causing debt problems for younger S’poreans. It’s so affordable that GMS sold his flat to help fund his bid for a S$15,000 monthly salary. He knew he could get a second bite at the cherry if he needed to?

Whatever it is, we do know that GMS has the money to raise a family in a city where housing is very “unafforable”. He FT in HK?

StanChart directors to push for chief’s succession plan

Above is FT’s headline for today.

Ho, Aberdeen, Blackrock and L&G baring their fangs? TRE ranters and other anti-PAP paper activists, pls note that Temasek has been pushing for a succession plan for some time.

But they can rejoice ’cause  sharesclosed at £9.39 on Friday – down from £18 less than two years ago.

They will be celebrating.

Related:

https://atans1.wordpress.com/2014/10/29/lousy-set-of-results-from-stanchart/

https://atans1.wordpress.com/2014/10/31/stanchart-gives-ho-more-problems/

 

StanChart gives Ho more problems

Is StanChart a rogue bank?

Standard Chartered Plc (STAN) fell for a fourth consecutive day in London after U.S. prosecutors reopened investigations to determine whether the bank, which entered into a deferred prosecution agreement in 2012, withheld evidence of Iran sanctions violations.

The U.S. Justice Department, Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance Jr. and Benjamin Lawsky, superintendent of New York’s Department of Financial Services, are all reopening their original inquiries into the London-based lender to determine whether it intentionally withheld information from regulators before the 2012 settlements, according to two people briefed on the matter, who asked not to be identified because the probes are confidential.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-30/standard-chartered-bank-of-tokyo-said-getting-new-review.html

Temasek wants clear succession plan at StanChart

https://atans1.wordpress.com/2014/10/29/lousy-set-of-results-from-stanchart/

Lousy set of results from StanChart

Standard Chartered has announced a 16% fall in operating profit because of a restructuring of its South Korean business and an increase in bad loans.

The Asia-focused lender said pre-tax profits fell to $1.5bn (£930m) in the July-to-September quarter compared to the same period a year ago.

Standard Chartered also warned full-year earnings would fall because of weak trading activity.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-29797961

FT reports that some of the major shareholders have been pressing for the CEO to be sacked if things don’t improve soon. It also reports that Temasek  is “pressing for a clear plan of succession”.

. 

 

 

Parking problems in HK, S’pore might benefit

No not a shortage of parking lots in Admiralty or Mong Kok caused by the heloos of Roy and FT  H3.

There is a shortage of moorings for superyachts. There is nowhere left to park them in HK, the Economist reported sometime back.

Still got space here, though the waters around S’pore are pirate-infested. Blame the Indon navy for that. Sadly our navy not like the Royal Navy in the 19th century. Keppel and other naval captains went around attacking pirate ships and their dens.

Roy’s & New Citizen H3 should go to HK

And observe, research and analyse how the students and other protesters are doing things in such a way that caused a Mainland Chinese official visiting Hong Kong to say, “It’s so amazing they can organise such an orderly, peaceful and self-disciplined protest.” (FT).

As at the time of writing, these protestors have behaved in such a way no-one can reasonably fault their behaviour even though what they are doing is technically, illegal: they don’t have permission to protest.

A walk among the tens of thousands clustered around the Admiralty district in Hong Kong feels more like attending a music festival than a protest. The demographic of those calling for representative elections in 2017 is mostly twentysomething or younger – some are in school uniforms. Volunteers hand out snacks, drinks, and goggles to defend against pepper spray, though there has been no sign of any since the first day’s ruckus. Volunteers shepherd new arrivals away from overcrowded areas; others hand out home-made flyers on how to remain calm if provoked.

Anyone can be violent, but keeping protest this calm requires strategy. According to many non-violence theorists, the only way to confront a muscular government like China’s is to train, plan, stay calm and kill the enemy with kindness.

http://blogs.reuters.com/breakingviews/2014/10/01/hong-kong-harmony-hits-beijings-worst-fears/

But somehow going by TOC’s video* showing at the very least showing Roy, H3 and friends shouting their slogans in front of special needs kids, I suspect that the lessons the HK protesters can teach S’poreans will be lost on them and their very vocal defender of their actions Goh Meng Seng (who is in HK). Too bad because

What’s most impressive is that the orderliness is basically self-generated. While some training had taken place beforehand, much of the co-ordination among the protesters has been ad hoc, with more experienced protesters conducting on-the-spot education, according to one organizer. Supplies are requested via social networks and Google Docs. Meanwhile, the crowds have the element of surprise on their side. Protests were still spreading to previously untouched areas today, including the high-end shopping district Tsim Sha Tsui, a magnet for mainland tourists.

Thankfully we have Cherian George there. He can perhaps observe, research and analyse, and then teach teach S’poreans how to ensure that social movements can be emotionally charged but peaceful, disruptive but harmonious.

If that happens, the govt and the administrators will rue the decisions that forced him to move on to HK. Cometh the our, cometh the man.

———-

*Recommended viewing by H3 and Roy to support their view that they didn’t “heckle” the special needs kids. My view is that they are trying to be pedants. The usage of the word “heckle” has evolved to encompass their actions.

This is a neutral report of the scene: When Yahoo Singapore visited Hong Lim Park just before 5pm on Saturday, Ngerng and Han were leading about 100 protesters in circles around a large tented area where people attending the YMCA event were seated, waving large and small Singapore flags and chanting “Return our CPF!” and “PAP, vote them out!” through microphones connected to speakers placed on the outskirts of the YMCA event area.

At at least one point, Ngerng and Han led the group of protesters near the front of the permanent stage at Hong Lim Park, where performances by various youth groups, including one by special needs children, were taking place.

The performance of the special needs group appeared to be disrupted by the sound of the protesters’ chants, and the song the children were dancing to was stopped and restarted after the protesting group moved to a mound at the back of the lawn.

-https://sg.news.yahoo.com/police-investigate-cpf-protest-march-at-hong-lim-park-004904810.html

Dispersing crowds the Hongkie way/ Govt thinks Hongkies are stupid?

… Hong Kong’s health authorities have warned of “pollution risks” and advise the general public to reduce time outdoors.

The South China Morning Post observes that air pollution threat “had been low due to less traffic since the demonstrations began”.

However, the Post notes that the Environmental Protection Department has changed its health risk forecast to “high” and “very high” in the city on Tuesday, due to “different sources of pollution”.

Protesters interviewed by the paper, however, insist that the poor weather will “not undermine the protesters’ determination to seek democracy”.

“I don’t think rain and bad air quality will dampen or deter protesters’ will and confidence,” one said. “We have raincoats ready to hand out. We also have big umbrellas for protesters to share.” (BBC Online)

Btw, wonder if Roy and New Citizen 3H are going to HK, joining Goh Meng Seng, in researching the protests. After all Roy and 3H went to do research in Norway. What Norway has in common with S’pore except big SWFs is beyond me.

Uniquely HK way of protesting (Updated at 4.05pm)

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-29423147

 

Tourism potential of Indon, Vietnam & Burma

Number of foreign visitors received in 2013

• Thailand – 26.5 million
• Malaysia – 25.7 million
• Hong Kong – 25.6 million
• South Korea – 12.1 million
• Japan – 10.3 million
• Indonesia – 8.8 million
• Vietnam – 7.5 million
• Myanmar – 2 million

I’m surprised that Indonesia has only 8.8m visitors given the popularity of Bali.

Still Mynamar is the place to invest in the tourism biz. Opportunities there from recent BBC article.

S’poreans: 11th in lying on hols experience

Chinese are number 1. lie to friends and family about the marvellous time they had,The survey didn’t give a reason for why the Chinese exaggerate the most about their holidays, but the status of being able to afford to go abroad, ensuring you keep one step ahead of the Wangses, may be a factor. Another explanation could be that the Chinese tourist is a relatively recent phenomenon who could learn a thing or two about complaining from travel-hardened European and American holiday-makers  Economist

Both reasons are likely to apply to the sheep Singaporeans too.

In Asean, Thais are ahead of us. Interestingly, Hongkies, who many locals think are BS artists don’t exaggerate that much. But then they have a reputation for being gd at complaining.