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Archive for the ‘Indonesia’ Category

Buying STI ETF is buying into HK

In Financial competency, Hong Kong, Indonesia on 18/11/2019 at 4:17 am

I’ve always told young people who want to invest in local shares to buy into one of the two STI ETFs if they believe that the PAP govt is doing a decent job and will continue doing a decent job, and if they believe that it will continue ruling S’pore. A coalition of the Spastics (Mad Dog, Lim Tean and Goh Meng Seng) will ruin S’pore.

But with the troubles in HK, I’ve had to modify that advice by telling them that because the STI Index has a heavy HK component, they have to think about HK’s problems and its long term future.

I tell them that around 13% of the STI Index (by mkt cap) is made up cos in the Jardines Group. Jardine and Matheson (and Sassoon) were the original narco drug barons. Jardines Group is still very HK-based: Dairy Farm, Jardine Matheson, and HK Land. All these cos are in STI, as is Jardine C&C*. See table for the HK exposures of the Jardines Group: SGX-listed stocks that have serious HK exposure. Note that Mandarin Htls is part of Jardines Group.

I’ll end with a link to the constructive, nation-building BT, defending the heavy presence of Jardines in STI Index: https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/are-there-risks-to-having-too-many-jardine-units-in-the-sti. Note a far cry from its snide remarks in 2010. See STI ETFs — Are there values there?.


*Jardine C&C is big in Indonesia: Impt of Indonesia to Jardine’s and other local listcos

 

S’pore: Bottom of class in Asean

In Economy, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam on 09/11/2019 at 4:47 am

Don’t believe me? Look at this table where MNCs relocating from China are going to.

To be fair, S’pore’s a developed city-state while the rest of Asean are third-world countries: including M’sia.

Btw, table also shows that PeenoyLand and Indonesia are “shithole” countries as far as manufacturing investments are concerned. Infrastructure problems, poor governance and bad labour and other laws ensure that MNCs don’t relocate there despite cheap labour and in Peenoy’s case, the use of some kind of English.

Asean experts in infowars

In Indonesia on 13/10/2019 at 10:48 am

(Two excerpts from a very long BBC article)

No, the Asean experts in infowars are not our our very own Terry’s Online Channel or Kirsten Han and PJ Thum minister who are minister Shan’s demons (Praying for minister Shan), but the Indonesian govt.

Indonesia’s Papua province has become the focus of a well-funded social media campaign using bots to promote a pro-government agenda, the BBC has found.

A long-running Papuan separatist movement has flared in recent months, sparking fresh calls for self-rule.

But with access to the region heavily restricted, social media has become a key source for the foreign press.

One expert told the BBC the apparently co-ordinated campaigns were seeking to skew international views of Papua.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-49983667?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.com/news/world/asia&link_location=live-reporting-story

Here’s how it’s done

[A] network of automated fake accounts spread across at least four social media platforms and numerous websites which could be traced to a Jakarta-based media company, InsightID.

The bots would jump on to hashtags being used by groups supporting independence, such as #freewestpapua, so they swamped negative reporting with positive stories about investment in the region, a process known as “hashtag hijacking”.

This technique was also used on Facebook. One such message, in English, said Indonesia had invited the UN to Papua to assess the situation. But the UN has complained that, despite an agreement more than a year ago, an official visit has still to take place.

The company pushed out content on Facebook with paid ads targeting users in the US, UK and Europe.

“The risk of a campaign like this, in a place with so little access to truly independent media, is it skews the perceptions and understanding of the international community in a way that doesn’t reflect reality,” says ASPI cyber researcher Elise Thomas.

“That appears to be the goal, one which someone is willing to spend hundreds of dollars and many months to achieve.”

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-49983667?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.com/news/world/asia&link_location=live-reporting-story

Related post:

Indonesian riots prove minister’s point on zero tolerance of racist remarks?

And since the post’s publication:

A new wave of violence has hit the restive Indonesian region of West Papua after hundreds of protesters, mostly high school students, set fire to several buildings in a town on Monday.

At least 23 people died in the regional capital Wamena, some of whom were trapped inside burning buildings.

The protests were reportedly triggered by a teacher’s racist comments – an allegation the police called a “hoax”.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-49806182?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.com/news/world/asia&link_location=live-reporting

Stop being fascinated with HK riots, look closer home

In Indonesia on 06/10/2019 at 4:53 am

Alt media and social media is fascinated with the HK riots. They want something like that to happen here isit?

Meanwhile, they ignore the riots in Jakarta where unpopular legislative changes have brought tens of thousands of demonstrators onto the streets

The protests were triggered by bills hurried through in the final days of the parliamentary session, before a new cabinet is appointed and Widodo gets sworn in for a second term. They include an effort to introduce a criminal code outlawing sex outside marriage, among other things, and changes to limit the powers of the country’s ranti-corruption commission, known by its Indonesian initials as the KPK.

What happens in Indonesia also affects us, ang moh tua kees and anti-PAP cybernuts.

 

Neighbouthood’s in a pretty good place

In Indonesia, Malaysia on 29/09/2019 at 5:11 am

The Philippines, Indonesia and Thailand are in a position to loosen fiscal and monetary policy, according to Pictet.

As is Tun’s M’sia, going by Pictet’s analysis.

Haze: Clearing land without burning is very expensive

In Environment, Indonesia on 23/09/2019 at 11:26 am

Yesterday, the haze got worse. It was also the day I read an article in the Economist. Sharing what it wrote.

It just makes financial sense to clear land by burning it (Me rather than Economist):

Preparing land for plantations without using fire costs around [US]$300-400 a hectare, says Herry Purnomo of the Centre for International Forestry Research, which is based in Indonesia, whereas burning costs [US]$30.

https://www.economist.com/asia/2019/09/19/burning-forests-are-blackening-the-skies-of-south-east-asia

Btw, got to add to US$30, the cost of bribes:

In theory, using fire to do this is illegal, but the local officials who should stop it are easily bought off.

Clearing land by other means is juz dumb human thinking at work, Mr Spock would say (My tot: not Economist’s).

And that’s not all. Indonesian govt helps make cost of burning lower. The Indonesia govt doesn’t bother to collect fines it imposes on burners:

as of February, some [US]$220m in fines owed by plantation companies involved in past fires remained unpaid.

Because so cheap, so no wonder

In one district, according to Doni Monardo of the National Disaster Mitigation Agency, 80% of the fires appear to be intended to convert forest into palm-oil plantations.

Loos like nothing changed from 2015: Indon false pride and BS.

And btw, lol, Haze: PAP govt cares, they really do. So vote wisely especially if you are thinking of voting for Lim Tean’s gang.

He wants us to go to war with Indonesia. He wants us to deal directly with the Riau authorities. Indonesian govt would rightly see this as an infringement of its sovereignty. But then Lim Tean like this:n Whatever happened to Lim Tean’s defamation video? And his jobs rally? To be fair, sometime in early 2019, he delivered his video. It was BS and more than two yrs late.

Indons thrash us, Viet Kong catching up

In Indonesia, Vietnam on 15/09/2019 at 10:46 am

Where’s M’sia and Thailand?

China: “Do unto others as you would have them do unto you”

In Indonesia, Vietnam on 07/09/2019 at 4:21 am

The United States should learn how to behave like a responsible global power and stop acting as a ‘school bully’. As the world’s only superpower, it needs to shoulder its due responsibility, and join other countries in making this world a better and more prosperous place. Only then can America become great again.

Chinese’s official Xinhua news agency said recently about the US imposition of more tariffs.

Bit rich of China to say this because the same could be said of China in its relations with Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia over its territorial disputes with these countries. Example: this is what happened when a Peenoy who loves licking Xi’s ass raised PinoyLand’s dispute with Xi

Duterte admitted on Wednesday, September 4, during a press conference in Malacañang that he fully expected Xi to reiterate their rejection of the arbitral ruling and he had no alternative strategy for such a scenario.

‘Yan ang problema nitong mga yawa na ito sige tanong, ‘Go to China’ ganon. Nandoon na nga ako ilang beses na eh. Baka sabihin pa ni Xi Jinping, ‘Putang ina sampalin kita. Ilang beses na kita sinagot? Sinabi ko na sa iyong amin ‘yan.’ Kasi kung ako tanungin mo, ganon ang sagutin kita,” said Duterte,

(That’s the problem with these foolish critics who keep saying, ‘Go to China.’ I was there many times already. Maybe Xi Jinping will say, ‘You son of a bitch, I’ll slap you. How many times have I answered you? I already said that sea is ours.’ Because if you ask me that question, that’s how I would answer you.)

Xi, according to Duterte, responded to his “reiteration” of the arbitral award by saying, “We will not budge.”

https://www.rappler.com/nation/239397-duterte-knew-raising-hague-ruling-west-philippine-sea-with-xi-futile

Sci-fi? U$20bn plan to power S’pore with Oz solar

In Energy, Indonesia, Infrastructure on 06/09/2019 at 1:27 pm

What is this Oz man smoking?

‘Just a matter of when’: the $20bn plan to power Singapore with Australian solar

The desert outside Tennant Creek, deep in the Northern Territory, is not the most obvious place to build and transmit Singapore’s future electricity supply … The developers say it will be able to provide one-fifth of the island city-state’s electricity needs, replacing its increasingly expensive gas-fired power …

Sun Cable’s chief executive, David Griffin, is bullish about the possibility of his company helping power Singapore from the outback in less than a decade.

He says the project will use prefabricated solar cells to capture “one of the best solar radiance reserves on the planet”. But he says the major transformation that makes the farm possible is the advent of high-voltage, direct-current submarine cable, which he describes as the “greatest unsung technology development”. Sun Cable’s underwater link to Singapore will run 3,800km.

“It is extraordinary technology that is going to change the flow of energy between countries. It is going to have profound implications and the extent of those implications hasn’t been widely identified,” Griffin says.

“If you have the transmission of electricity over very large distances between countries, then the flow of energy changes from liquid fuels – oil and LNG – to electrons. Ultimately, that’s a vastly more efficient way to transport energy. The incumbents just won’t be able to compete.”

Sun Cable’s backers believe Singapore, as a well-regulated electricity market that runs mostly on gas piped from Malaysia and Indonesia and shipped as LNG, is ripe for competition.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jul/14/just-a-matter-of-when-the-20bn-plan-to-power-singapore-with-australian-solar?fbclid=IwAR0hyiT_gNgXdKpA2CeSweuQCyrpKyIPO6TINQcm4K4tfJnuMhyfNXfJLak

Coming back to “What is this Oz man smoking?” He’s smoking what TRE’s Oz-based funder and grave dancer, and his fellow anti-PAP cybernuts are smoking. Oxygen and the other cybernuts are shouting themselves hoarse that the Spastics’ League will defeat the PAP at the next GE.

But there’s still hope for Oxygen and his fellow cybernuts. After the PAP wins the next GE convincing: Sci-fi story predicts S’pore after next GE?. 

I’ll end with this which helps explain why cybernuts are the way they are:

Change blindness refers to the phenomenon in which viewers fail to detect (sometimes surprisingly dramatic) changes to a visual scene. One way of demonstrating this effect is through a procedure called a “flicker paradigm” in which two very similar scenes alternate, with a few discrepancies between them. Detecting changes in a flicker paradigm is such a surprisingly difficult task that when a team of psychologists led by Ronald Rensink first tried to publish research on the topic in the mid-90s, their results were initially rejected by peer reviewers as impossible. In other words, the fact people could be change blind was so counterintuitive that even visual scientists were inclined to doubt the reality of the phenomenon.

Today, change blindness is an established part of cognitive psychology. Scientists have even introduced the term change blindness blindness to refer to the fact that people tend to be ignorant of their change blindness.

https://atans1.wordpress.com/wp-admin/post.php?post=47371&action=edit

 

 

Temasek’s US$800m investment in obscure Google unit

In Indonesia, Temasek on 05/09/2019 at 1:19 pm

In 2017, Verily secured U$800m from Temasek in exchange for a “minority stake” (Que the usual KPKBing from TOC and other cybernuts). Funny, they very quiet when earlier this year, Silver Lake (tua kee private equity tech investor) and Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan (tua kee savvy investor) invested US$1bn for “minority stakes” in Verily.

What is Verily?

Verily is Alphabet Inc.’s research organization devoted to the study of life sciences. The organization was formerly a division of Google X, until August 10, 2015, when Sergey Brin announced that the organization would become an independent subsidiary of Alphabet Inc.

Wikipedia

It made $ in 2016: https://www.vox.com/2016/4/13/11586102/verily-alphabet-profitable. Nothing heard since then.

It is, often through partnerships with healthcare companies or universities, using health data for clues that might predict and prevent diseases. Tools it uses include search, AI, cloud services and other such high tech stuff.

 

Indonesian riots prove minister’s point on zero tolerance of racist remarks?

In Indonesia, Political economy, Public Administration on 27/08/2019 at 10:53 am

If a racist rap video was allowed to remain online, it could normalise offensive speech and such attacks against other races could become mainstream, said Law and Home Affairs Minister K Shanmugam.

Speaking at the CNM Leaders Summit organised by the National University of Singapore’s Department of Communications and New Media on Thursday (Aug 22), Mr Shanmugam expanded on why the Government acted to remove the rap video by YouTuber Preetipls and her brother Subhas Nair, which came in response to a controversial “brownface” advertisement.

Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/preetipls-subhas-nair-rap-video-normalised-offensive-speech-11834928

Constructive, nation-building CNA

Well the following article from the BBC about violent protests in West Papua province is evidence that he isn’t talking cock about the probability of violence when there’s official tolerance of racist language. Racist taunts aimed at a group of students from West Papua in Java have sparked violent protests in Indonesia’s West Papua.

What happened in Java last weekend

The groundswell of anger that has fuelled the latest demonstrators was sparked by an incident in the Javanese city of Surabaya at the weekend.

After accusing Papuan university students of damaging an Indonesian flag during Independence Day celebrations, nationalist groups surrounded their boarding house and goaded them with racist taunts, calling them “monkeys”, “pigs” and “dogs”.

Police in riot gear then stormed the dormitory to force the students out. Authorities said the students were briefly questioned before being set free.

This resulted in violent protests in West Papua

The area’s largest protests in years saw numerous buildings torched – including a jail and a market – and resulted in the Indonesian government deploying thousands of additional security officers to an area which is already the country’s most heavily militarised.

The internet has also been shut down to “restore security”, according to the Indonesian government.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-49434277

But it’s more than racist taunts. Papuan students in Java, told BBC Indonesian they are often made to feel like second-class citizens.

“I have been turned away from student boarding houses and told that they will not receive boarders who are Papuan students,” said Benfa, a Papua student in Yogyakarta.

“We face discrimination and racism daily,” Aris Yeimo, from the Papuan student union, added.

Coming back to the spark that started the riots (the racial taunts),  a few Indonesian politicians are showing some sensitivity. The governor of East Java province apologised for the racism in Surabaya, and President Joko Widodo announced plans to visit Papua. But better not to have allowed the taunts in the first place?

Related post:

Brownfacegate: Did you know Shanmugam also said this?

Typical Chinese reaction to “brownface” ad/ Cina also can get upset

Brownfacegate: The inside story?

S’pore, Indonesia doing well in unicorn breeding

In Indonesia on 26/08/2019 at 3:00 pm

A unicorn is a privately held startup company with a current valuation of US$1 billion or more.

S’pore’s got two: Grab (the mobility platform that wants to conquer SE Asia) and Trax (Computer vision technology for use in retail industry: FT builds tools for bricks-and-mortar retail)

Whatever, we are doing pretty well in unicorn breeding. We’ve got two, while Japan has only three.

But then Indonesia has four  Go-Jek, Tokopedia, Traveloka, and Bukalapak.

Go-Jek is a mobility platform that also wants to rule SE Asia. Tokopedia and  Bukalapak are e-commerce businesses Traveloka provides airline ticketing and hotel booking services online.

Akan Datang: really bad haze

In Environment, Indonesia on 26/08/2019 at 4:26 am

Could be like the one in 2015: Haze, 9/11 & TOC or the one in 2013: P Ravi’s reposting: What the govt should have done.

Indonesia is experiencing the worst annual fire season since 2015 and it’s comparable to the Amazon fires: “Whether or not the situation can be contained will become clear in the coming weeks,” BBC

As fires rage in Brazil’s Amazon rainforest, the south-east Asian nation of Indonesia is witnessing a similarly devastating ecological tragedy unfold.

The dry season has arrived in Indonesia – home to some of the world’s oldest tropical forests – bringing with it its worst annual fire season since 2015.

Close to 700 hotspots have been identified in fire-prone regions in Sumatra, Kalimantan and the Riau islands.

Prevailing winds carrying smokes and dust particles have picked up, blowing towards Malaysia and Singapore.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-49444325?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.com/news/science_and_environment&link_location=live-reporting-story

And the usual Indon BS

Military planes, ready with water jets, comb the skies above Kalimantan and Sumatra in search of impending fire.

Btw, the area where the new capital will be is within the areas where there are annual fires

Indonesia is pressing ahead with plans to move its capital from the traffic-choked city of Jakarta to the island of Borneo. The precise location has not yet been revealed – nor has a timeline – but President Joko Widodo formally launched the scheme in parliament on 16 August.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-49406700

 

Chaos can be good for S$, PM, PAP 

In Currencies, Emerging markets, Hong Kong, Indonesia on 20/08/2019 at 4:45 am

I kid u not.

HK$ rose against US$ despite the protests and riots that created economic uncertainty. Hmm maybe Mad Dog in power could be good for S$.

S’pore bidding for 2032 Olympics?

In India, Indonesia, Malaysia on 14/08/2019 at 7:22 am

Malaysia and Singapore are reportedly considering a joint bid,

In a story about Indonesia’s planned bid, the NAR reported the above. It also reported that India was planning a bid and the idea of a North-South Korea bid has also been floated.

It says that India would pose the greatest threat to Indonesia succeeding.

Some Asean currencies are a cheong

In Currencies, India, Indonesia on 06/08/2019 at 5:15 am

We know how the S$ has been performing against US$. But did you know that some Asean Currencies have strengthened against US$? And the Indian rupee? Tell that to the Nairs and maybe they’ll be less uptight about not being Chinese in S’pore: Brownfacegate: Did you know Shanmugam also said this?

At one time local Chinese chauvinists called S’pore either the 3rd or 4th China (depending on whether they excluded HK from China: it was then a British colony). One Harry Lee locked them up but he made sure that Chinese kids had to study Mandarin.

Why Sino-US Cold War is great for our economy

In China, Economy, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam on 22/07/2019 at 5:37 am

It’ll do for our economy what the Vietnam War did for HK and our economies: spur economic growth

Further to Will the last US MNC leaving China switch off the lights, the charts below show almost nothing is made in America. Almost everything is made in China, and almost the rest in Asean i.e. countries like Vietnam, Indonesia and M’sia.

As the regional trading, financial heart and hi-tech manufacturing centre (Think Ang moh manufacturer employs more people here than in China and planning to employ a lot more) of Asean, we’ll benefit (Think Ang moh who bot S$73.8m flat).

Bang yr balls Oz-based TRE cybernut and funder “Oxygen”. Left S’pore a long time ago but still hates S’pore and wishes us ill. But still has CPF account. Used to evade Oz tax, it’s alleged by Secret Squirrel.

But of course short term we suffer: “Only cold spell coming, but not Winter,” says Heng. 

Vote wisely. Remember: IMF affirms support for PAP policies.

 

 

Temasek, GIC got this right in our backyard

In GIC, Indonesia, Internet, Temasek on 22/06/2019 at 6:01 pm

Indonesia is really the place to be in e-commerce.

And Temasek is there: Indonesia: Temasek, Google & McKinsey singing from the same page

As is GIC via Bukalapak: an e-commerce unicorn: https://techcrunch.com/2019/01/18/bukalapak-raises-50m/

Btw, Go-Jek where Temasek has a stake has big plans in Thailand and Vietnam, as does Grab (where Temasek also has a stake).

 

 

HoHoHo: Bad news for Go-Jek and Grab

In Indonesia, Malaysia, Temasek, Vietnam on 11/05/2019 at 5:32 am

Uber’s shares sank almost 8 per cent below their offer price on Friday, giving the ride-hailing company a disappointing market value of below $70bn — a far cry from the $100bn valuation it had until recently hoped to achieve.

FT today

Meanwhile Lyft which was valued at U$22.4bn at its IPO closing price (up 9% from its offer price). By May 7th, the day it reported results for the first quarter as a public company, it was worth only US$17bn. Lyft’s share price fell by another 11% the next day.

These performances have

left investors questioning the appetite for unprofitable car-booking companies that have relied on a flood of private capital to fund heated expansion and competition.

FT

As Economist says

Both firms have enough cash to continue to burn money for years, but public investors expect a rapid path to profitability. Making it into the black will require either raising prices or reducing the cut of bookings passed on to drivers. The former will be hard; in many markets ride-hailing competes with other cheap modes of transport, such as buses, bicycles and riders’ own cars.

Think Grab and Go-Jek, and Temasek that has invested in them. Grab and Go-Jek are also losing money.

Btw, in 2018 according to an article in the Tiền Phong newspaper, GIC realised a 60% loss over 4 years after it sold 5.4 million shares in Vietnamese taxi operator Vinasun.

 

Jialat for M’sia and Indonesia/ Even a Chinese M’sian minister is stupid

In Indonesia, Malaysia on 05/05/2019 at 5:12 am

A pair of Scottish entrepreneurs are aiming to go global with their hope to replace palm oil using coffee waste.

Scott Kennedy and Fergus Moore said they came up with a unique way to extract oil from used coffee grounds which had a wide range of uses.

Palm oil is found in many household products, but environmentalists say demand for it is devastating rainforests in Asia.

Manufacturers are now under pressure to find an alternative.

“About 60% of a cafe’s waste is about coffee grounds.

“The most exciting part for us is that they have all the same components as palm.

“Palm oil’s in the news for all the wrong reasons. It’s really exciting for us that we could potentially provide a local and more sustainable alternative to all the industries that are currently using palm oil.”

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-48023412

In a sign of how nervous the M’sian govt is of criticism of palm oil, a M’sian minister criticises ‘sensationalised’ signs on palm oil at Singapore Zoo.

https://www.todayonline.com/world/malaysian-minister-criticises-sensationalised-signs-palm-oil-singapore-zoo

And she’s Chinese and from DAP. I tot only stupid, balls-carrying Malay ministers from Bersatu criticise S’pore. Didn’t realise got such people from DAP.

 

 

Indonesia: Temasek, Google & McKinsey singing from the same page

In Indonesia, Internet, Temasek on 05/04/2019 at 1:18 pm

Only Indonesia is outpacing India digitally, according to McKinsey.

No wonder Temasek sees a bright future for e-commerce in the region.

In a report in November [2018], Google and … Temasek calculated the value of south-east Asia’s internet economy at $72bn in 2018.

Previous reports by the pair have predicted a regional internet economy worth $200bn by 2025, but last year they raised that projection to closer to $240bn.

“… south-east Asia’s internet economy hit an inflection point in 2018. Powered by the most engaged mobile internet users in the world, industries like ecommerce, online media, online travel and ride-hailing grew at an unprecedented rate,” they wrote.

“Investors have taken notice, pouring record amounts of funds into the region — now it’s time for everyone else to pay attention.”

FT

Temask has stakes in Indonesian start-ups Go-Jek and Warung Pintat (retail tech start-up). Grab where Temasek has an investment is a rival to Go-Jek in Indonesia.

PAP needs strong Chinese economic growth

In China, Economy, Indonesia, Malaysia on 07/11/2018 at 10:54 am

Looking at chart, it’s no wonder our finance minister is really worried if Trump paks China really hard. S’pore’s very dependent on Chinese growth because China is an integral part of Asian supply chains.

South Korea, Taiwan, S’pore, M’sia, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines have all benefited from the rise of China as a manufacturing power, especially since the global financial crisis.

Singapore assessing 2019 forecasts amidst escalating trade spat: Finance minister

Singapore has already witnessed a slash in business investments amidst the looming trade wars.

Finance minister Heng Swee Keat thinks that Singapore may have to look out on its economic growth projects for 2019 amidst the escalating US-China trade tensions that have pumped up uncertainty for business investments.

“In the short run, the impact is not fully felt yet,” with Singapore retaining its growth forecast for this year at 2.5% to 3.5%, Heng said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “But any trade tension that sets back globalization will affect everyone, including the countries that are directly involved, but also collateral damage right across all economies.”

Heng acknowledged that the Lion City had already witnessed the effects of the trade war through increased uncertainty and reduced investment by businesses, noting that next year’s situation will depend on how the situation will unfold in the next few months.

The ‘global production frontier’ being diminished could allow a prolonged trade war to severely disrupt the global supply chain thereby hitting countries with long-term growth challenges, the minister said.

“Our priority areas remain for economic restructuring,” Heng explained. “The other big area is looking at infrastructure development” with urbanization being a major trend in Asia.

Here’s more from Bloomberg.

 

Asean “No friend” China, Trump triumphant

In Indonesia, Malaysia on 26/10/2018 at 4:21 am

In August, M’sia’s PM when in China cancelled several multi-billion dollar projects, including the East-Coast Rail Link and two gas pipelines, talking about runaway costs and affordability.

Less noisily, Burmese officials announced in June that they are reviewing and trying to revise down costs for a US$9bn China-backed port. And there’s more: Indonesia, Bangladesh and Thailand have quietly turned away Chinese financing for new ports, rails and plants. According to Fitch Solutions, this year alone, nearly 38 projects have been cancelled or suspended, up from just 12 in 2016.

Looks like no Belt for Xi’s Road and Belt dream.

Trump must be happy.

Indonesia wasted aid money to detect tsunami

In Indonesia on 03/10/2018 at 4:29 am

Remember a few yrs ago, it was reported that S’pore funded systems to detect or monitor forest fires in Riau were not maintained by the Indonesian authorities?

Well it now seems a tsunami warning system was not repaired or maintained by the Indonesian authorities.

Talking about the recent Palu tragedy (“The number of people known to have died in Indonesia in Friday’s earthquake and tsunami has risen to 1,347, disaster response officials say.”) the BBC reported

Could more lives have been saved?

It’s possible, as Indonesia does actually have a more advanced tsunami warning system, including a network of 21 buoys which would have dispatched advance warnings based on data gathered by deep sea sensors.

However none of these buoys – donated by the US, Germany and Malaysia after the devastating 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami that killed nearly a quarter of a million people – are working. Some have been damaged by vandals and others have been stolen.

A replacement system has been delayed due to a lack of funds.

Because of this the BMKG predicts post-earthquake tsunamis using a modelling system based on the earthquake depth and magnitude.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-45663054

Sad.

“Government in general, any government anywhere, is a thing of exquisite comicality to a discerning mind.”
―from NOSTROMO (1904)

Go NE Asean, Young S’porean

In Indonesia, Vietnam on 25/09/2018 at 4:31 am

A report by worldwide management consulting firm McKinsey & Company released on Sept 14 found that eight out of 18 of the world’s best-performing emerging economies — including Cambodia, Laos, Indonesia and Vietnam — are in South-east Asia. These economies averaged at least 3.5%  annual per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth over 50 years, or 5 per cent annual growth over 20 years.

But be warned Cambodia and Laos is bandit country: you can get killed by unhappy biz rivals. Vietnam is a lot safer.

Indonesia? A country of the future. But it has always been like that.

Our fragile neighbours

In China, Emerging markets, India, Indonesia, Malaysia on 18/08/2018 at 11:31 am

Think the woes in Turkey are irrelevant to us? Far away Muslim country.

Well look at this table https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/breakingviews/1/951/1238/index.html

If Turkey goes, M’sia (6th with Turkey as Number 1) and Indonesia (8th) are likely to get into trouble.

As could Thailand (15th), India (10th), China (12th) and S Korea (14th)

Peenoys give the lie to the importance of press freedom

In Indonesia, Media, Vietnam on 01/08/2018 at 4:54 am

In Prosperity with S’porean, Chinese characteristics I quoted the typical ang moh view that

The case for a free press rests not only on classical liberal principles but also on hard data. Cross-country studies show strong and consistent associations between unfettered media, vibrant democracies and limited corruption.

Peenoy Land has a very free press, couresy of American rule, but look at how poor its people are compared to four other Asean countries, three in which press freedom is an expensive luxury. Only Indonesia has a free press.

S$ currencies tua kee

In China, Currencies, Indonesia on 26/06/2018 at 4:09 am

As emerging mkts currencies are sold off, Sino and Indo currencies remain steady versus Trump’s $.

M’sia: Time to buy?

In China, Emerging markets, India, Indonesia, Malaysia on 21/06/2018 at 4:28 am

M’sian mkt being ignored. One of least crowded emerging markets. Thailand and China look vulnerable because everyone’s there. Indonesia, Pinoy Land, Taiwan, Korea and India are in between. 

Must be cheap skate cybernuts visting Johor

In Indonesia, Malaysia, Tourism, Vietnam on 18/06/2018 at 4:14 am

Diagram shows that M’sia is even worse than Vietnam in not fleecing tourists: must all those freeloading TRE, TOC readers and other cheap skates taking adv of weak ringgit. Tun will not be happy. 

M’sian economy: a safe haven in emerging mkts storm

In Currencies, Emerging markets, Indonesia, Malaysia on 11/06/2018 at 5:40 am

Tun should chill out on his fears for the M’sian economy. His fiance minister and Najib  are right about how gd the economy is: Either Tun or his Cina finance minister is wrong: OK, OK vis-a-vis other emerging mkts.

Remember the Taper Tantrum of 2013? Back then, the talk was of the Fragile Five (sometimes known as the BIITS): Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey and South Africa:  these large emerging markets had large current account deficits.

Well the tantrum is back with India, Indonesia, Turkey, Pakistan and the Philippines recently raising their official interest rates but despite Tun’s KPKBing M’sia is in great shape. True getting rid of GST is not a great idea but with oil in the US$70s , there’s room for compacency: Mahathirnomics/ Luck of the devil.

Juz tell that to the foreigners selling M’sian equities.

When CIA bombed Indonesia

In Indonesia on 01/05/2018 at 11:04 am

This

Charles Chong says historian Thum had ‘engineered’ support for himself, points to ‘coordinated attempt’ with ‘foreign actors’ to subvert parliamentary process

and the sebsequent KPKBing by the ang moh tua kees (“witch hunt”) reminded me of documented foreign interference in the affairs of SE Asian countries in the 1950s.

The story of an almost forgotten episode in the histories of the CIA and Indonesia. The CIA’s airforce was supporting rebels in Sulawesi.

http://www.warhistoryonline.com/guest-bloggers/pby-catalina-26-invaders-p-51-mustangs-cia-rebel-air-force-attacking-indonesia-1958-m.html

The CIA was also active in supplying arms to the Acheh rebels at the other end of Indonesia.

This was happening around the time the British detained people like Devan Nair and Lim Chin Siong here for subversion.

Then there was the incident related in Why PAP (and PMs) sue and sue a year later here. Might not be the CIA directly but weren’t the KMT friends of the CIA? 

“Just because you’re paranoid doesn’t mean they aren’t after you.”

― Joseph Heller, Catch-22

Allah also against Uber?/ Our “religion”

In Indonesia on 24/04/2018 at 6:06 am

In Indonesia Uber “has been outmanoeuvred by Go-Jek’s Go-Car, launched in 2016” says the FT.  It’s also ahead of Grab, co-founded by a cross-wearing M’sian Christian, now living in S’pore: Real reason why Uber lost to Grab.

Indonesia is impt because it’s 2/3 of the regional market according to the FT. But can Allah help out in other SE Asian countries?

Excluding Vietnam (Jesus and Buddha), M’sia (Allah got competition with Jesus, Buddha, Guan Ying, our Harry and the Hindoo gods), the Philippines (Jesus and Durterte), Singapore (Hard Truths) and Thailand (Buddha) have varying prohibitions on motorbike ride-hailing, Go-Jerk’s strength (Allah likes motorbikes?), FT points out.

 

Oversea Chinese not real Chinese

In China, Indonesia, Malaysia on 29/03/2018 at 8:55 am

And when the Javanese helped the Chinese in Java

When the Dutch took over Indonesia in the 1700’s, they segregated Chinese merchants and workers that otherwise lived among the Indonesians, culminating in the 1740 Batavia massacre where Chinese were targeted for death. While the Dutch embassy to the Qing dynasty apologized for the East India’s company’s murder of ethnic Chinese, the Qing Emperor told them that any Chinese who leaves Qing territory is no longer Chinese, so he didn’t care. The only people willing to help the Chinese were the Javanese they lived with, leading to the Java War (1741–43) against Dutch rule.

The rest of the Quora article which talks about the Chinese coming in SE Asia before the 19th century migrations.

Ask the Indonesians/Malaysians


In the 1200’s, the Yuan dynasty’s fleet invaded Java but was repelled by the Singhasari kingdom, which in turn benefited from captured Chinese technology such as better ships. A century later the Ming dynasty would send their treasure fleets through Southeast Asia in a mission of peaceful trade, with some Chinese muslims staying behind to join the Muslim communities of Southeast Asia.

The Ming dynasty eventually established a peaceful relationship with the Muslim Malacca sultanate, with thousands of Fujian Chinese immigrating there. When Malacca fell to Portugal, the Ming dynasty responded with a boycott of Portuguese goods (only trading with Malaysians), even executing Portuguese envoys/bandits (sources vary), the Ming dynasty already had previous problems with Portuguese pirates. Relations with Portugal would improve over time though.

When the Dutch took over Indonesia in the 1700’s, they segregated Chinese merchants and workers that otherwise lived among the Indonesians, culminating in the 1740 Batavia massacre where Chinese were targeted for death. While the Dutch embassy to the Qing dynasty apologized for the East India’s company’s murder of ethnic Chinese, the Qing Emperor told them that any Chinese who leaves Qing territory is no longer Chinese, so he didn’t care. The only people willing to help the Chinese were the Javanese they lived with, leading to the Java War (1741–43) against Dutch rule.

 

Ho Ho Ho: Google agrees with Temasek

In Indonesia, Internet, Private Equity, Temasek on 31/01/2018 at 7:31 am

Years ago, Temasek (along with big private equity firms KKR and Sequioa) invested in Indonesian unicorn Go-Jek. The company provides ride-hailing, food delivery and e-payment services.

Well now, Google has invested in Go-Jek as it seeks to further tap Indonesia’s growing internet economy. Google said on Monday it had chosen to invest in Go-Jek as “there was still more we can do to support and participate in Indonesia’s growth”, noting the country is home to the world’s fifth-largest population of internet users. It did not disclose the size of the investment.

Cybernuts should remember that Temasek and Ho Ching don’t always get things wrong (HO HO HO: How Shi**y is StanChart?).

In fact, Temasek (and GIC) like other professionally run SWFs (Think the Arabs but not the Chinese. Think the Chinese investment in Noble House that will be almost wipewd out.) often get investments more right than wrong.

Another deal Temasek (and GIC) got right: Xiaomi’s IPO will make anti-PAPpyists frus.

Only In Indonesia

In Indonesia on 15/01/2018 at 2:09 pm

Floor collapses at Jakarta stock exchange, Reuters quotes unconfirmed reports.

Dozens of people were seen running from the Indonesia Stock Exchange in central Jakarta on Monday, Metro TV showed, after unconfirmed reports of a collapsed structure, possibly a floor, inside the building.

The director of the stock exchange, Alpino Kianjaya, declined to comment on the incident …

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/15/floor-collapses-at-jakarta-stock-exchange-reports-say

Ho Ching doesn’t rest

In Banks, Indonesia, Temasek on 27/12/2017 at 8:47 am

PM and wife may be on hols but MUFG and Temasek have just done a deal that hopefully (Indon regulators willing) would see the Japanese bank acquiring a 73.8% stake in Bank Danamon from its largest existing shareholder, Temasek (Temasek wants to be rid of it’s stake after the Indons blocked a merger with DBS Indonesia.)

the Japanese bank will buy 19.9 percent from Singapore state investor Temasek Holdings [TEM.UL] for 15.875 trillion rupiah ($1.17 billion), a deal it expected to close within a few days.

MUFG will then raise the stake to 40 percent, pending regulatory approval, between the second and third quarters of 2018.

MUFG said after that, it sought approval to hold at least 73.8 percent in Indonesia’s fifth-largest bank by offering to buy out other shareholders in addition to acquiring shares from Temasek.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mufg-m-a-bank-danamon/japans-mufg-seeks-majority-of-indonesias-bank-danamon-idUSKBN1EK11H

HoHoHo: Rogue bank and the Indon military

In Banks, Indonesia, Temasek on 09/10/2017 at 5:49 pm

NYT is the first media publication to report that the inquiry StanChart faces involves clients with links to the Indonesian military.

Standard Chartered Faces Inquiry Over $1.4 Billion Transfer by Indonesians

By CHAD BRAY

The London-based bank told regulators about the issue after the money was moved in 2015 by clients with links to the military.

NYT Dealbook

Achtung if got money in Indon, M’sia and India

In Currencies, Emerging markets, India, Indonesia, Malaysia on 21/12/2016 at 5:38 pm

Nomura says Indonesia, Malaysia and India could be next to implement capital controls.

2017: Put on yr parachutes and crash helmets

In China, Currencies, Indonesia, Malaysia, Property on 21/12/2016 at 7:08 am

Jeremy Cook, chief economist at payments provider World First, said a combative US and a strong dollar would put pressure on Singapore, South Korea and other parts of the EM universe that have relied on US funding and a free and easy trading environment, as well as Indonesia and Malaysia.

The president-elect represents “an almost existential risk to trade”, said Mr Cook.

FT

The good news for S’poreans will be that things will also be bad for Indonesia and M’sia: they are unhappy when neighbours do better. In the past these countries had often provided some relief for the S’pore economy, when other drivers were not working. Not next year though.

Ah well, expect more bitter tots from that very bitter man, TJS.  And S’poreans should worry about servicing their mortgages and jobs.

Every penny counts, so stop drinking BS

Obama ate dog, snake and grasshopper

In Indonesia on 15/10/2016 at 6:06 am

Is Obama really Chinese? No, he spent his childhood in Indonesia

When he was six, his mother took him to Indonesia, where she had married a local man. There she began what became her magnum opus: a study of peasant blacksmiths on Java. It was a typical anthropological project, an attempt to understand how another tribe sees the world.

Obama ate dog, snake and grasshopper, learnt Bahasa Indonesian, and got used to children throwing stones at his black skin. Aged 10, he returned to Hawaii, where he was born, to live with his grandparents but he continued visiting his mother in Indonesia. He rarely discusses his Indonesian years, presumably because most US voters don’t like their leaders foreign, but this formative experience as a cultural outsider makes him almost unique among US presidents.

An FT writer

Eating more wheat

In Indonesia on 05/10/2016 at 3:59 pm

When I was young, LKY had the “Eat more wheat campaign” to break the rice bowls of the Teochew rice merchants. He didn’t like them momopolising the rice trade with Thailand. He said they were gourging S’poreans.

Well it seems the Indons took his advice to eat more wheat. As for the Peenoys, they as usual imitate ang mohs.

Wheat

 

The next row with Indons

In Environment, Indonesia on 21/09/2016 at 4:45 am

Haze is Indonesia’s retaliation for helping Google avoid Indon taxes

Taz the line that the Indon VP or Indon minister will take soon.

Because Google uses S’pore as tax haven to avoid paying Indon taxes, Indons will keep on burning and killing 2,200 S’poreans a year*, a senior Indon official is sure to say. Never mind a lot more Indons are killed by haze.


Btw, expect the cybernuts from The Idiots – S’pore (or TISG) and TRE to start screaming that the PAP govt is allowing S’poreans to die so that Google can make money. And they’ll cheer on Indonesia as they cheered on Pinoy chief gangster for dissing S’pore.

——————————————————————————————————

This is what CNA, part of the constructive, nation-building media reported

Indonesia plans to pursue Alphabet Inc’s Google for five years of back taxes, and the search giant could face a bill of more than US$400 million for 2015 alone if it is found to have avoided payments, a senior tax official said.

Most of the revenue generated in the country is booked at Google’s Asia Pacific headquarters in Singapore. Google Asia Pacific declined to be audited in June, prompting the tax office to escalate the case into a criminal one, Hanif said.

“Google’s argument is that they just did tax planning,” Hanif said. “Tax planning is legal, but aggressive tax planning – to the extent that the country where the revenue is made does not get anything – is not legal.”

The tax office will summon directors from Google Indonesia who also hold positions at Google Asia Pacific, Hanif said, adding that it is working with the Indonesian police.

Already Google  has come under scrutiny from Australian authorities for paying tax in Singapore on advertising revenue generated in Australia, where the corporate tax rate is 30%.

Btw, Indons are saying Nasi Goreng is not a S’porean dish. http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-37408343


*A study that estimates there were 2,200 premature deaths in Singapore due to the 2015 haze crisis is “not reflective of the actual situation”, the country’s Ministry of Health (MOH) said on Monday (Sep 19). The study by researchers from Harvard and Columbia universities in the US also said there were more than 100,000 premature deaths caused by transboundary haze from Indonesian forest fires. 

CNA

 

 

 

 

 

Palm oil prices keep on falling

In Commodities, Indonesia, Malaysia on 14/07/2016 at 1:23 pm

S’pore, Asean on risky list

In Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia on 06/07/2016 at 1:54 pm

Indonesia and PinoyLand head the list, HK is a pretty safe place.

CrossBorder Capital said its Emerging Markets Risk Index fell sharply in May and is now at its lowest level since 2012, having peaked in early 2015.

This measure is based on three components: financing risk, which measures the ability of EM entities to roll over their debt; forex risk, driven by the quality of liquidity in a country and how dependent it is on central bank money; and exposure risk, which flashes a warning sign if a high proportion of investment in a country is in risk assets such as equities and corporate debt, rather than lower-risk government bonds and cash.

FT

M$, rupiah: Here we go again

In Currencies, Emerging markets, Indonesia, Malaysia on 28/06/2016 at 1:39 pm

El Nino: End in sight?

In Environment, Indonesia on 21/04/2016 at 10:30 am

Grass is greener here for Asean FTs?

In Economy, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam on 05/03/2016 at 9:53 am

Look at the ptoblems they have getting jobs ar home.

In Asean, S’pore, M’sia are creditor friendly

In Indonesia, Malaysia on 04/03/2016 at 2:30 pm

Bye-bye haze, welcome rain

In Commodities, Environment, Indonesia on 22/02/2016 at 7:25 am

This month has been unseasonably wet even by pre El Nino norms. Well it seems this report that El Nino is coming round earlier this yr is wrong.

The latest thinking is that El Niño passes its peak while La Niña is possible this year.

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-35612558

What is La Nina?

Whatever, VivianB will be not screaming at the Indons this yr. There’ll be lrss hot air coming from the Indons. And Mad Dog Chee can brown-nose the Indons without upsetting S’poreans like me.

VIIPs are Asean

In India, Indonesia, Uncategorized, Vietnam on 06/02/2016 at 6:58 am

This lumps together Vietnam, India, Indonesia, and the Philippines for their similar economic and demographic prospects. It serves as a catchall for a number of relative bright spots in Southeast Asia as investors into the region look beyond China’s long shadow.

La Nina and commodities/ Can you still smell the haze?

In Commodities, Environment, Indonesia, Malaysia on 09/01/2016 at 6:12 am

Map: effects of La Nina on commodities

I can still smell the haze i.e, the fires are still burning but at a much lower level of intensity, enabling the Indon authorities tp pretend that they’ve stopped the fires.

The haze season will begin in Feb

Indons can’t BS us in 2016

In Environment, Indonesia on 01/01/2016 at 1:07 pm

We got a spy in the sky.

Singapore’s TeLEOS-1 satellite, now in orbit some 500km above the Equator, takes pictures with a 1-metre resolution when it passes the neighbourhood once every 100 minutes or so.

http://kementah.blogspot.sg/2015/12/singapores-teleos-1-satellite-can-serve.html

Meanwhile in Indonesia, the haze and mirrors’ game continues: http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35203609

“The strongest El Nino weather cycle on record” is happening right now http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-35159826

Haze: Season begins in Feb 2016

In Environment, Indonesia, Uncategorized on 22/11/2015 at 1:08 pm

Not in Aug/ Sept as is traditionally the case.. Or even like a few yrs back in May.

Enjoy the haze-free environment. Not that long more before next season begins.

This is what i posted a few weeks ago

The Indons tell us the fires will cease by the end of Neovember: rains are late this yr leh. What they don’t tell us: Louis Verchot of the Centre for International Forestry Research warns that El Niño may yet induce a second burning season, next February and March. Lax laws are part of the problem. Even more serious are official incompetence and corruption, which have allowed plantations to keep spreading on land that is supposed to be off-limits. A regional treaty designed to combat the haze was drawn up in 2002 that was full of grand promises but lacked teeth.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2015/11/daily-chart-3

Haze: Help? What help?

In Environment, Indonesia on 10/11/2015 at 4:55 am

A new law introduced in Singapore this year that aims to drag Indonesia’s fire-starters through its own courts may make more difference. Retailers in the city-state have already stopped selling products made by some firms under investigation.

(Economist)

But otherwise our fire fighting team has returned and no new team is going out.

The Singapore team helping to fight haze-causing fires in Indonesia returned Saturday afternoon (Oct 24) after more than 10 days in Palembang.

The return marks the completion of the Singapore Armed Forces’ two-week deployment, as requested by Indonesian authorities.

A total of 40 SAF and Singapore Civil Defence Force troops were deployed on Oct 10.  A Chinook helicopter with a 5,000-litre heli-bucket was also deployed. Over the two weeks, it had discharged more than 400,000 litres of water and extinguished more than 50 hotspots in Sumatra.

(CNA)

This blog has been pretty critical about the Indon officials false pride and BS but if S’pore has not offered to send another team and another to help, then our help is really “peanuts” and not worth accepting in the first place.

More than 20,000 firefighters are battling blazes across its jungles and peatland. So our one-time help of 40 fire-fighters and some eqpt is “peanuts” by any standard,

But maybe we did offer to send another team (and then another), but the Indons refused our help?

But then I’m sure that our ministers would have made that fact public.

Next haze season begins in Feb 2016

In Environment, Indonesia on 08/11/2015 at 10:50 am

The Indons tell us the fires will cease by the end of Neovember: rains are late this yr leh. What they don’t tell us: Louis Verchot of the Centre for International Forestry Research warns that El Niño may yet induce a second burning season, next February and March. Lax laws are part of the problem. Even more serious are official incompetence and corruption, which have allowed plantations to keep spreading on land that is supposed to be off-limits. A regional treaty designed to combat the haze was drawn up in 2002 that was full of grand promises but lacked teeth. 

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2015/11/daily-chart-3

Haze: Why Indons getting serious

In Environment, Indonesia on 31/10/2015 at 11:06 am

A few days ago I wrote Haze: Huge Indon U-turn within a week

The Indon govt was changing its mind on calling a state of National Emergency despite saying it wasn’t on the cards a few days earlier.

The reason?

“Lately, clouds of haze have been drifting into the outskirts of Jakarta, Indonesia’s capital, which normally escapes the smelly fumes. Cynics will wonder whether that helped persuade Mr Widodo to come home early,” Economist.

Widodo had cut short a US trip to deal with haze.

Haze is hitting the elite where it hurts, their home town and the place where upset people can make a difference.

 

Chinese pearls in Indonesia

In China, Indonesia, Infrastructure on 31/10/2015 at 5:06 am

China Communications Constructionis currently in the process of finalising a $2.5bn deal with the Indonesia Port Corporation to upgrade 30 ports in East Indonesia 70% financed by the China Dev Bank

 

Haze: Huge Indon U-turn within a week

In Environment, Indonesia on 29/10/2015 at 5:23 am

The British have a saying, “A week is a long time in politics.”

Yesterday CNA reported, Indonesia is considering declaring a national emergency over fires that have been smouldering across the archipelago for weeks, sending haze drifting across much of Southeast Asia, the vice president said on Tuesday.

The government would intensify efforts to contain the fires that have caused pollution levels across the region to spike to unhealthy levels, and forced school closures and flight cancellations, Vice President Jusuf Kalla said.

“The problem is too big,” Kalla said in an interview at his office in Jakarta.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/indonesia-considers/2221238.html

But on 21 October, Companies will benefit if haze problem declared national disaster: Indonesian minister

The annual haze problem in Indonesia is about injustice, Indonesia’s coordinating minister for politics, law and security Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan said.

“When a company controls 2.8 million hectares of land, where is the justice? Then there are those that own 600,000 hectares of land but own not a single fire extinguisher,” he said in an interview in the Oct 25 issue of Tempo, an Indonesian weekly news magazine.

He explained authorities’ reluctance to declare the haze problem a national disaster, even though air pollution levels in some Indonesian cities have reached hazardous levels at more than 2,600 API.

“Should the government be dousing fires all the time? If we call it a national disaster, they will benefit from it,” he said, referring to land concession owners. “They have 500 million pounds sterling in London banks, but they demand that we douse the flames.”

(CNA)

The plantation owners could use  any declaration of a national emergency to declare force majeure on palm oil deals, even financing deals entered into with banks.

Haze: Only Indon officials do this

In Environment, Indonesia on 25/10/2015 at 4:23 am

Int’l conference of ministers in haze-ridden Padang.

Only Indon officials can be so cock. I assume that when this conference was scheduled, they tot the haze season would be over.

Correspondents … likely to be discussed at the talks is smoke from illegal forest burning in Indonesia that has blighted the air across much of South East Asia for several weeks.

Julie Bishop takes morning run before attending Indian Ocean Rim Association meetings in Padang, West Sumatra, Indonesia, 23 October 2015

Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop will hand on the chair of the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) to Indonesia at a meeting in West Sumatra.

IORA consists of 20 coastal states bordering the Indian Ocean and has been chaired by Australia since 2013.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-34612083

 

Haze: Indon govt protecting plantation cos

In Environment, Indonesia on 23/10/2015 at 4:48 am

Our govt has officially requested Jakarta to provide S’pore with the names of those companies that are causing the fires. This would allow S’pore to take legal action against those responsible for the haze that has covered us, M;sia and now southern Thailand.

But Indonesia’s Coordinating Minister for Politics, Law and Security Luhut Pandjaitan has given us us the finger on the issue (and in so doing tells us that the plantation cos are being protected), despite Indonesian officials regularly blaming S’pore-based (and M’sian based) cos for the fires.

Speaking to the media here after delivering a public lecture on Monday (Oct 19), he said Jakarta might consider releasing the names of the companies after they have gone though the legal process in Indonesia*.

Jakarta has said it is not yet ready to officially disclose names of plantation companies responsible for the forest fires in the country that caused the haze in the region.

Indonesia’s Coordinating Minister for Politics, Law and Security Luhut Pandjaitan said releasing the names would create uncertainty within the country.

He added that the Indonesian government also do not want to create an uncertain situation within the country because of this. “Moving forward, they know that they are going to get punished by the government. I think this is very important.

“But next year, we have already given them a clear message: We are going to revoke their licence, no question about that. That I can assure you. They understand that fully.” 

(CNA)

So it seems that the companies are to be given yet another chance to avoid being named and shamed, and prosecuted here. Did money cdhange hands ?

Related post: Another Indon goof https://atans1.wordpress.com/2015/10/19/haze-indons-forgot-about-el-nino/

——————————–

*Legal process, what legal process? He said: “Well, we are not protecting (plantation companies). Like I mentioned earlier, we have not officially submitted the names to the court. So how can we disclose them to the public? It’s unfair. We’ll wait for the court’s final decision.” 

How can courts decide if the names are not officially submitted? So Kafkaesque    of, relating to, or suggestive of Franz Kafka or his writings; especially :  having a nightmarishly complex, bizarre, or illogical quality <Kafkaesque bureaucratic delays>

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/kafkaesque

Did money change hands?

 

Haze: Indons forgot about El Nino?

In Indonesia on 19/10/2015 at 5:31 am

Update on 22 October: There is little possibility of rain before the end of November, said Indonesia’s Coordinating Minister for Political, Legal and Security Affairs.

When TRE republished https://atans1.wordpress.com/2015/10/09/haze-indon-officials-that-cock-meh-double-confirm/ TKSS reminded of how the yearly wayang ends: the rains come and everybody is happy.

CI, it is quite obvious the games played.

We are in mid October which is the transition between mother nature’s season of south west and north east monsoon. In another month or so the North east monsoon takes over and rain will douse fires

Indonesians are probably thinking why not for PR, they don’t do it the rains will.
They already have a few months when fires were most productive in cleaning lands*.

Sadly TKSS and the Indon officials forget that we are likely not to see the usual weather pattern. The weather should be a lot cooler and rainier  by now but it isn’t. I’ve got two fans on and am bare-bodied as I write this at 5.00am.

The dry spell is likely to continue for a lot longer than usual. Remember that last November — January were pretty dry. This November — January could be worse.

The only good thing we can look forward to is that El Nino is followed by La Nina. and a couple of once-in-a-century floods in the space of a few months. Here’s hoping :a Ninacomes earlier than expected.

Related article https://atans1.wordpress.com/2015/10/04/haze-la-nina-riding-to-the-rescue/

————————————

*He goes on: Map co-ordinates will lead to identification of culprits which will destroy those bureaucracies – income in Province and Capital. Just wondering how much monies are used to grease the system by plantation owners to have their annual bonfires?

It is up to Political Leaders of those affected countries to get Indonesia to the table and start the process of enforcement. Laws can be enacted with regimes of fines and even confiscation of land by Indonesia.

BUT IS THERE A RESOLVE TO DO IT?

Haze: Indon officials that cock meh? Double confirm

In Environment, Indonesia on 09/10/2015 at 5:32 am

Further to this https://atans1.wordpress.com/2015/10/03/haze-indon-officials-that-cock-meh/, I’ll let my fellow Facebookers speak for me on the u-turn in Indon policy

“Jakarta accepts foreign help to fight raging forest fires” ST today. Finally. Why didn’t they accept such offers weeks back when it was offered and when the situation was already hazardous? Was it pride or what? And here, neighbours numbering millions have been suffering due to the Indonesian government’s previous stance! Hopefully there will be some relief in the near future.”

“At last! They also accepted Russian help. If Russia did not offer assistance I doubt that their foolish pride would have allowed them to accept Singapore’s offer. But now that a huge country and P5 member is helping them it has become acceptable to accept an insignificant offer from a tiny neighbour. Another factor may be the impending ASEAN Summit which also entails meetings with Dialogue Partners. Their lack of capacity has been all too evident and they would have wanted to avoid criticism from world leaders.
‘In today’s ST page A6 there is a story about how the Indonesian government pressured major palm oil firms to roll back no deforestation pledges they made at the UN. I think this is actually a more important story than Jakarta’s belated acceptance of foreign assistance because it reveals something of the thinking and priorities of this Indonesian government.”

To the second comment, I’d add that there is a newspaper that a senior Indon official claimed that it turned down S’pore’s help initially because it didn’t want S’pore to claim credit for solving the problems.

Using that line of reasoning, one can assume that Indon officials will refuse to divulge the name of S’pore-based cos that it thinks is causing the haze. Doesn’t want S’pore to claim the credit for prosecuting them.

Which brings me to Terry Xu’s constructive suggestion to the S’pore govt.

“Zenata Putera, co-founder of local NGO, P.M Haze, said that while Indonesian authorities have said that there is a lack of information regarding the plots of land which companies own, NGOs have noted that such information is in fact available. He also said that it would be easier to work with the NGOs to resolve the haze-related issues than to go through the bureaucratic process.
What the Singapore government could probably do is to engage with the NGOs in Indonesia and to work out a plan to monitor errant companies. It could also help provide jobs for villagers who would be willing to work as firefighters and watchmen of the plantations to prevent fires or to testify against companies who run foul of the law.
The Singapore government has a duty to address the annual issue and to stop pushing the blame to “uneducated” villagers and companies that are almost never prosecuted in any way. The residents of Singapore deserves a better answer than being urged to bear with it and told that things are beyond our control.”

http://www.theonlinecitizen.com/2015/09/is-spore-helpless-about-the-haze-not-really/

What Terry Xu is saying is this, “By-pass the Indonesian govt, work with the Indon NGOs to identify the criminals”

Good suggestion but following it will get the Indon govt further upset with us. Indonesia is so protective of its sovereignty that it refuses to provide the map co-ordinates of the areas where it alleges S’pore cos are breaking its law, when our govt wants the info to prosecute the alleged burners.

In dealing with the haze problem, there no win-win possiblities, only a choice of lesser evils.

Haze: La Nina riding to the rescue?

In Environment, Indonesia on 04/10/2015 at 4:25 am

So the Indon officials say they don’t need our help despite the VP sayinfg S’pore should help and despite firefighters saying they lack eqpt. Allah is sending in La Nina earlier than expected.

Coming in 2016, El Nino’s other half: heavy rains among other things.

Map: effects of La Nina on commodities

Haze: Indon officials that cock meh?

In Indonesia on 03/10/2015 at 4:32 am

Indonesia has enough resources to fight the forest fires that are causing the haze in the region, and does not need the assistance offered by Singapore at this time, Indonesian officials told a Singapore delegation on Thursday (Oct 1). CNA

Strange as

— Tot Indon VP told S’pore to help, not juz bitch: OK he said Indon was open to help, but that implies that it needs help. So officials now saying he talk cock king?

— These fire fighters say they don’t have the resources to put out the fires in their area http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-34341012

Haze, 9/11 & TOC

In Indonesia, Political governance on 28/09/2015 at 5:18 am

PM got really lucky on 9/11? Or did the 9th Immortal* use his newly acquired powers to fix the weather? Imagine if 9/11 was as hazy as last Friday (Schools had to be closed and in the morning, the Pollutants Standards Index,PSI, hit 341- the highest level this year.). PM would most probably not have got the 10 point swing that had the anti-PAP cyberwarriors like Constance Singham choking on their venom from their fangs https://atans1.wordpress.com/2015/09/16/social-activist-feminist-in-denial/. A five point swing would have been more likely, something which I tot probable based on my analysis that East Coast and Marine Parade would not fall, but Aljunied would repent

In the run up to 9/11, if the weather had been like that in the last week TOC (WP’s Hammer Online) would be pushing the line that the haze is almost all the fault of the PAP administration: like it did on Friday

The Singapore government has a duty to address the annual issue and to stop pushing the blame to “uneducated” villagers and companies that are almost never prosecuted in any way. The residents of Singapore deserves a better answer than being urged to bear with it and told that things are beyond our control.”

http://www.theonlinecitizen.com/2015/09/is-spore-helpless-about-the-haze-not-really/

I’ll go into what the Hammer Online TOC wants the govt to do one of these days. But until then bear in mind that anti-PAP cyberwarriors accused the govt of using salt to induce rain juz before F1. When the govt denied this, TOC said the govt was being less than open because the M’sians and Indons might have used salt to induce rain (Wow everything blame PAP isit?). Btw, TOC and the anti-PAP cyberwarriors didn’t use the the word “salt”. They used the term “sodium chloride”. To make the seeding sound more “sinister”?

It’s stories like this that “double confirm” the PAP administration’s assertion that TOC is indeed “political” and worthy of being hantamed, left, right and in the balls. When it was “gazetted” yrs ago, I tot the action unfair: now I’m not so sure.(Disclosure: I helped out at TOC when Ravi was chief editor,)

TOC doesn’t respect the decision of 70% of voters to support the PAP? It like, Dr Chee, wants the 30% to rule over the 70% isit?

“At home, anger at the current political situation is palpable [Huh? OK on TRE] and some have resorted to action [TRE cybernuts are shoutong obscenities and cursing their fellow S’poreans? Nothing unusual there.] . If the PAP is content to label this group of citizens as the ‘noisy minority’, … For these people, the prospect of being unable to bring about political change through the ballot box* only makes the PAP’s claim of legitimate power sound dangerously vacuous.”

https://atans1.wordpress.com/2015/09/23/will-the-real-sdp-dr-chee-pls-stand-up/

(He forgot that over the years this 30% of voters have been able to get the support of swing voters in Hougang, Aljunied and Punggol East. Juz because the SDP can’t win, doesn’t mean that others can’t. Go ask the WP. Yes, it’s an uneven field, but winning is not impossible. Takes time, patience and maturity: virtues that Dr Chee may not have.

Yes the minority has rights, but so does the 70%. Democracy is not about majoritism, but neither is it about dictatorship by the minority.

Here’s an extract (emphasis mine) from a BBC article that Doc Chee and TOC should bear in mind when demanding that the views of the 30% must prevail (because the 30% agrees with their “right” views?)

Clem Attlee’s Labour government had a massive Commons majority and an undoubted mandate, but had only 16 peers in the Lords. Theoretically, their Lordships could have frustrated Attlee at every turn, throwing out or wrecking every bill in their programme, but that would have risked retaliation in the form of outright abolition – so, instead, a deal was struck.

Peers would not oppose measures promised – “foreshadowed” – in the government’s manifesto, and therefore assumed to have the endorsement of the electorate, at second or third Reading. In other words, the government would get the legislation it had promised to voters, and therefore would not have to get bogged down in an Asquith-style struggle with the Lords – Addison was a veteran of the Asquithian Liberal Party, and would doubtless have preferred not to repeat its epic battles with peers.

Cranborne spelled the new doctrine out in the debate on the King’s Speech in July 1945:

“Whatever our personal views, we should frankly recognise that these proposals were put before the country at the recent general election and the people of this country, with full knowledge of these proposals, returned the Labour Party to power. The government may, therefore, I think, fairly claim that they have a mandate to introduce these proposals. I believe it would be constitutionally wrong, when the country has so recently expressed its view, for this House to oppose proposals which have been definitely put before the electorate.”

He reserved “full liberty of action” on legislation not included in an election manifesto.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-34340715

———————————

*Funny that no-one has accused LKY of using his unearthly powers to transform Oppo votes into PAP votes. But Uncle Redbean comes close.

The final result was just too incredible and unbelievable. This must be the biggest mystery of this GE. It was like a strange event in the Bermuda Triangle that defied all logic and reasons. How could a SDP team that was technically superior or at worst equal to the PAP team lost so badly?

Call it a miraculous win for the PAP team. The other mystery must be the near loss of the WP team in Aljunied GRC. The voters could not switch camp just like that, and without a big crisis. The AHPETC was no crisis but a red herring. The voters of Aljunied were not so daft not to see it to affect their voting decision.

Yes, the truth is stranger than fiction.

http://mysingaporenews.blogspot.sg/2015/09/the-sdp-team-that-could-not-have-lost.html

I’m sure that he, like Goh Meng Seng, believes that UFOs are aliens visiting.DSC_0029 DSC_0080

 

 

 

 

M’sia: Why Cina & Kelang bitching

In Indonesia, Malaysia on 26/09/2015 at 1:02 pm

And why the Malay ultras think that they are ingrates.

BN wastes reserves defending ringgit

Big Asean stk mkt falls

In Indonesia, Malaysia on 25/09/2015 at 1:15 pm

Global-stock-markets-chart

Remember MayBank Kim Eng says Thailand and S’pore mkts most resilient in region.

M’sia’s not that bad, Worry about Indonesia

In Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam on 19/09/2015 at 4:37 am

Here’s another analysis coming to the same conclusion

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2015/09/capital-freeze-index

Idonesia is 4th after some real dogs Venezuela, Turkey and Ukraine. Yikes, it might be a another real dog.

M’sia is way down even below PinoyLand. Thailand is juz better than M’sia while Vietnam is really safe by the standards of the others. Safer than Saudi Arabia.

When Fed raises rates, regional currencies will tank

In Currencies, Indonesia, Malaysia on 17/09/2015 at 2:00 pm

 

Ringgit, Rupiah got a lot more room to fall?

In Indonesia, Malaysia on 22/08/2015 at 6:20 am

Assuming if M’sia and Indonesia decide like Russia to keep government revenues the same in local currency terms, this would suggest that the Indonesian rupiah and Malaysian ringgit are both somewhat overvalued, even after falling to 17-year lows.

They would need to let their currencies weaken (in percentage terms) against the dollar by as much as the oil price has fallen. The Saudis (and other Arabs) do things differently. Because  they have foreign reserves that will last for years they peg their currency to the dollar.

Only in Indonesia

In Indonesia on 22/08/2015 at 4:12 am

The Badminton World Federation (BWF) has apologised after the old fascist-era Spanish national anthem was played for gold medallist Carolina Marin at the world championships in Indonesia.

Marin successfully defended her world title in Jakarta on Sunday against India’s Saina Nehwal.

But the version of Spain’s Royal March played at the medal ceremony was the one dating back to Gen Francisco Franco’s far-right dictatorship.

Report from BBC earlier in the week

Holiday in M’sia, Indonesia

In Currencies, Indonesia, Malaysia on 15/08/2015 at 4:54 am

Against US dollar.

Malaysia’s ringgit and Indonesia’s rupiah both slid to 17-year lows, after falls of 2 per cent and 1.4 per cent respectively, while the currencies of India, Colombia, Taiwan, Chile, Vietnam, Turkey, Mexico, Brazil and Singapore all ended the week 1-2 per cent softer. FT

But these currencies depreciate against S$ too.

M’sia: Tak boleh? Indonesia not far behind?

In Currencies, Indonesia, Malaysia on 04/08/2015 at 12:59 pm

Asia currencies main

Exports slump in Asean: Will affect S’pore

In Economy, Indonesia, Malaysia, Property on 01/08/2015 at 4:47 am

http://im.ft-static.com/content/images/c38feea2-3207-11e5-8873-775ba7c2ea3d.img

For starters, a lot less tourists from Indonesia. And upper end properties will continue to be in dolddrums.

IPO that is not coming to SGX

In Indonesia on 18/07/2015 at 4:37 am

Philip Morris International has hired investment banks, including Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse and JPMorgan Chase, to sell over US$1 billion worth of shares in its Indonesian operation,

As it’s Ramadan, think Hijaber

In Indonesia, Malaysia on 04/07/2015 at 4:47 am

The buying power of trendy fashion-conscious Muslim women M’sia and Indonesia according to the FT.  It should add in S’pore too.

Think Indonesia is still the next big thing?

In Commodities, Corporate governance, Emerging markets, Indonesia on 14/06/2015 at 6:08 am

Rothschild Exits Investment in Indonesian Coal The British financier Nathaniel Rothschild’s five-year foray into Indonesia’s coal sector has come to an end after his investment vehicle, NRH Holdings, agreed to sell its 17.2 percent stake in Asia Resource Minerals, the London-listed company formerly known as Bumi, for 23.2 million pounds, or $35.3 million.

NYT Dealbook

It would be “the first and last time” he would get involved in Indonesia. He described the Asian country as “ungovernable”.

As the FT reported, he ended his quest to regain control of the miner, which he founded along with Indonesia’s Bakrie family in 2010, when the company was known as Bumi. He is estimated to have lost about £80m through the investment.

Instead he has agreed to sell his shares to an investor group backed by another Indonesian family, the Widjajas. Their £135m bid is now being backed by Asia Resource’s board. The company was once worth £3bn.

Widjajas 1 Jewish boy 0

Bakries 0 Jewish boy 0

Even M’sian successful tycoons have serious problems navigating Indonesian corporate jungles: think AirAsia.

 

HK ahead of us, Switzerland, M’sia behind us

In Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia on 07/06/2015 at 4:06 am

Chart: Top 20 investors, 2014

Plenty of gas around us

In Energy, Indonesia, Malaysia on 06/06/2015 at 5:06 am

Govt’s plan to be a lNG trading hub is a no-brainer.

World's top LNG producers

 

Eat yr hearts out Pinoys, Dr M

In Indonesia, Malaysia on 23/05/2015 at 5:13 am

Our economy in absolute terms is bigger than PeenoyLand. And we only slighly smaller than M’sia. Only Thailand and Indonland bigger than us in absolute terms.

Lucky us: Indonesia’s economy bigger than UK, France or Italy

In Economy, Indonesia on 09/05/2015 at 4:55 am

FT PRC does us proud

In Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam on 07/03/2015 at 5:07 am

This S’pore-based co was founded by Forrest Li, an American educated PTC. A foreign talent indeed.

Since starting in 2009, Garena has rapidly expanded into multiple product lines. It started off creating software that linked people up for multiplayer games, then ventured into game distribution.

In 2010, it launched a mobile social network called Garena+, and more recently unveiled a couple of chat apps (BeeTalk is one) and a payment network called AirPlay. It has even launched its own venture capital firm to invest in startups. Garena has invested in Redmart, an online supermarket in Singapore.

The company claims to have 17 million monthly active users on the PC and 11 million on mobile. Most of its users come from Southeast Asia, but it has expanded into Taiwan and Hong Kong as well. It made S$31 million (US$22 million) in revenue in 2012, growing three times from the year before, according to Garena’s financial documents. In 2014, its annual revenue reached US$200 million.

The company is said to have become the top games publisher in Southeast Asia after itreceived an investment from Chinese internet giant Tencent, which also gave Garena an exclusive license to distribute League of Legends in the region.

According to the Financial Times, the OTPP investment values the company at over US$2.5 billion. Garena wouldn’t confirm the valuation figure.

https://www.techinasia.com/garena-raises-money-ontario-teachers-pension-plan/

It has reecently raised a new round of funding, led by The Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan (OTPP) with participation from existing investors.

FT reported:

In China, e-commerce sales make up more than 10 per cent of total retail sales, according to RHB, a Malaysia bank. That compares with only 1 per cent in the 10 countries of Asean, of which Indonesia is the largest, followed by Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia.

RHB says there are “no clear dominant regional [Asean] players at the moment” but that the market is “about to take off” given rapid growth in internet penetration and the adoption of mobile technology by young people among the 620m Asean population.

UBS, the Swiss bank, says that most internet traffic in Asean comes from mobile devices as the traditional PC has been circumvented by the arrival of 3G services.

Garena is among a new group of regional online gaming and e-commerce companies that have moved rapidly into Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Myanmar with mobile-based applications for gaming and messaging. They include OffGamers, Asiasoft and Nasdaq-listed MOL, a Malaysian group.

Internet-based retailers have also made inroads, including Lazada.com, which has said it aims to be the Amazon of Southeast Asia.

 

 

Smelling the haze

In Indonesia, Uncategorized on 14/02/2015 at 6:07 am

Don’t know about you, but I could smell the haze in the early morning. today. First time in February, though there vwere quite a number of days in January that I smelt it.

Smell disappears after the sun starts shines.

Indonesia it seems is still burning. Or is it the smoke from Parly? Plenty of smoke from both sides these last few days.

Other problems for M’sia, Thailand/ Bull pt for Indons, Pinoys and Viets

In Indonesia, Malaysia on 18/01/2015 at 4:24 am

Malaysia … have to cope with lower tax revenue from energy, minerals and other commodities. In Thailand, the central bank is hoping for a lift in public spending to revive growth; but the military-backed government is finding it hard to spend the 2015 budget.

Thailand will need monetary stimulus this year. 

—–

Relatively young countries like Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines drag down the average age.

http://blogs.reuters.com/breakingviews/2015/01/16/asias-big-demons-debt-deflation-demographics/

 

Three Asean mkts in top 10 performing mkts of 2014

In Indonesia on 03/01/2015 at 4:40 am

Global markets 1

The Pinoys should go home if they really are proud of their country. Maybe coups are gd for the stock market (Egypt, Thailand)

StanChart credit rating downgraded! First time in 20 years!

In Banks, India, Indonesia, Temasek on 29/11/2014 at 10:20 am

But no need to panic or curse Temasek*: Standard & Poor’s says bank is going through times but it still among world’s most creditworthy commercial lenders.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/nov/28/standard-chartered-credit-rating-downgraded

It has some big exposures to heavily indebted clients, such as India’s Ruia brothers, who control the Essar Group, and Indonesian billionaire Samin Tan.

Honest mistakes.

—-

But the facts won’t stop Philip Ang, TOC’s and TRE’s star analyst, from cursing and ranting: he’s so bad that in a piece on a GIC, London investment, he left out the rental yields out of his calculation because he said that the income was “peanuts” (my word, not his). Well commercial property yields are a gd 6%, and have been as high as 8% in some yrs recently.

 

Haze: VivianB has the luck of the devil

In Environment, Indonesia on 22/11/2014 at 7:57 am

Despite, me being able to smell the haze almost every evening* for the last few days, the anti-PAP paper warriors and do usual do-gooders have been quiet. The air pollution readings must be OK even if the haze is present. I don’t usually bother to check the readings because high levels are a health hazard only if there is “prolonged exposure”, something which the PAP administration refuses to highlight. Kinda dumb I think to let the usual suspects to get away with propogating rubbish. wake up Yaacob and earn yr salary.

For that I suspect the wet weather (usual around this time of the yr) has a lot to do with the lack of noise.

—–

*And this morning too. Update at 8.12am.

HORRORS: S’pore next to bottom in Asean ranking?

In Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam on 08/11/2014 at 7:18 am

 

Real GDP growth forecasts

 

The Thais can blame the political problems there. Govt here blames the “deft” locals for insisting that govt cuts back on its uber liberal immigration policy? To be fair, we’ve the only developed country in Asean, so lower growth rates are par for the course. Tell that to TRE ranters and other anti-PAP paper warriors: they blame the PAP for everything that isn’t “right” here. .

 

Asian economies GDP chart

Things go better with Coke in Indonesia

In Indonesia on 08/11/2014 at 4:44 am

Coca-Cola to Buy Stake in Indonesian Unit for $500 Million. Coca-Cola will come to the aid of its Australian affiliate Coca-Cola Amatil by taking a 29 percent stake in a struggling Indonesian business for $500 million, Reuters reports. The deal effectively values the Indonesian unit at $1.7 billion.

Chart: Quenching Indonesia's thirst

Parking problems in HK, S’pore might benefit

In Hong Kong, Indonesia on 23/10/2014 at 4:33 am

No not a shortage of parking lots in Admiralty or Mong Kok caused by the heloos of Roy and FT  H3.

There is a shortage of moorings for superyachts. There is nowhere left to park them in HK, the Economist reported sometime back.

Still got space here, though the waters around S’pore are pirate-infested. Blame the Indon navy for that. Sadly our navy not like the Royal Navy in the 19th century. Keppel and other naval captains went around attacking pirate ships and their dens.

Elections before 9/8/15?

In Economy, India, Indonesia, Political economy on 21/10/2014 at 6:13 am

Conventional wisdom is that the next GE will be held after the 50th anniversary celebrations of S’pore’s independence which will be a celebration of all things PAP. So the Oppo parties are not gearing up for an early GE (end of this yr or before Aug 9 next yr.)

And this piece of news doesn’t disturb the narrative:With the January 2017 deadline for the next General Election looming closer, the Elections Department (ELD) has been calling up public servants for training to be election officials, as part of the electoral process … , the ELD said in an emailed statement: “ELD prepares and organises the Public Service to conduct elections in Singapore. Amongst other work, ELD selects and trains public officers on an ongoing basis to perform election duties during an election.” (CNA 17 October)

There have been early training sessions before with no elections following. The conducting of training sessions is a lousy leading indicator.

But think about the economic prospects of S’pore  and the training could be a sign of early elections.

No govt wants to hold a general election in a recession or when a a recession is likely. Already the growth rates for this yr and next yr have had to be trimmed because the global economy isn’t doing too well.

And things could get worse: The global economy is in a woeful state [Skip the next few paras if pressed for time or an illiterate in finance and economics]. The euro zone, fully 17% of global GDP, is predicted to expand just 0.8% in 2014 according to the IMF. China and Japan, together 25% of global GDP, are slowing. Emerging markets are floundering: a report on the synchronised slowdown from the Fund puts much of it down to weak trading partners (a sort of trade contagion). As the world slows, America seems a prudent place to park cash. Chinese and Japanese holdings of US Treasury bonds—now $2.5 trillion—have doubled in five years, according to the TIC data.

… the euro area. Inflation is just 0.3% and the area is already awash with unemployed workers … end up with both fiscal and monetary policy being relatively tight.

What would happen next? American exporters would get hit twice—first by weak demand from abroad, then as their goods get pricier for foreigners to buy as the dollar continues to rise. But since America is a relatively closed economy, the impact abroad could be bigger. The big risk is that a runaway dollar topples emerging-market economies just as it did in the 1980s and 1990s. A pessimist would argue that many of the conditions now are exactly as they were then. Many emerging markets borrow by issuing bonds in dollars, rather than their own currency. Appetite for these higher-yielding dollar bonds has been strong in recent years: in January 2014 Indonesia issued its largest dollar bond since 1998; according to its Finance Ministry data, India has dollar debts of around $273 billion (15% of GDP). As the dollar rises, the local-currency cost of these debts goes up.

Floating exchange rates make things a little different when compared to the Asian crisis, but would not help that much. Take a country like Brazil, which has inflation of 6.75% (see the WSJ on this) and yet an economy in recession. If its currency continues to depreciate against the dollar then inflation builds up further. The central bank ends up in a bind: raise rates to cut inflation and stem the depreciation, or keep rates low to get the economy back on track. Both paths would be risky, and could cause a wider stress if the contagion of previous emerging-market crises is any guide.

With any luck none of this will happen. But it all could happen. And if you are in the business of forecasting and stress testing, you should prepare for the worst.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2014/10/pessimistic-forecast

So what about the fact that oil prices are close to US$80 from US$105 a few weeks ago

[M]ajor Asian economies, though, will look at falling oil prices less as a stimulant and more as a signal that global growth is faltering. For export-dependent Asia, lacklustre worldwide demand could end up being highly disinflationary.

That’s a big worry for the likes of China, Hong Kong and Singapore. These economies have all seen private credit rise rapidly since the 2008 crisis and need tolerably healthy inflation to help bring down the real value of debt. But China’s 1.6 percent inflation rate is now the lowest since February 2010, while the annual rate of increase in Singapore’s consumer prices has slipped below 1 percent. South Korea, which has historically had a problem of high household debt, can’t afford to allow its meagre 1.1 percent inflation rate to slide further.

http://blogs.reuters.com/breakingviews/2014/10/17/cheap-oil-is-no-tonic-for-sluggish-asian-economies/*

So I wouldn’t be surprised if 50th anniversary celebration events come fast and furious early next yr: to remind S’poreans of the role of the PAP in S’pore’s development from the second largest port in Asia to a global city state, with property prices to match those of global cities like NY and London.

But I’d be surprised if the PAP reminded us one LKY said in 1959,”we must go about our task (of building up a nation) with urgency … of integrating our people now and quickly”, because he said this when revealing that only 270,00 out of the 600,000 voters were born here. 

—–

*Btw two countries where I have investments will benefit: The big exceptions are India and Indonesia. Both governments supply gasoline and diesel to their consumers at fixed, affordable rates. For them, the 25 percent slide in the price of a barrel of Brent crude over the past four months translates into significant budgetary savings, which could be channelled into much-needed infrastructure investment.

 

 

S’pore, M’sia not attractive, Indonesia is

In Indonesia, Malaysia on 05/10/2014 at 4:37 am

In a late Sept report, FT reported that the Barings Fund mgr managing an Asean fund is cautious about topping up his exposure to Singapore and Malaysia due to fears about their economic growth prospects.
Mr Lim has large underweight positions in both countries via his $592.4m Asean Frontiers fund, which targets members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

Singapore makes up almost 30 per cent of the portfolio, compared with 33.7 per cent within the benchmark MSCI South East Asia index. The manager has just over 19 per cent in Malaysia, against the index’s 26.5 per cent.
In July, data showed the Singaporean economy had contracted on a quarterly basis for the first time in two years, while Malaysia is going through a process of budget deficit reduction and may miss its 2014 target.

“Singapore and Malaysia are more developed than the rest of the Asean countries … This makes them more expensive and in the long term they don’t have as good growth potential.

“In terms of size, Malaysia is much smaller than the countries we favour, such as Indonesia, so it is less likely to expand rapidly.”
Mr Lim said he can still find selective opportunities in Malaysia, but ones which do not necessarily rely on the domestic economy. Tune Insurance, an online travel-insurance provider based in the country, is one of the latest additions to his portfolio.

“Tune allows us to access the tourism market without investing in airlines, which have to deal with a lot of regulation and are [involved] in price wars,” he said.

In general, he finds growth companies in Indonesia and the Philippines more enticing.

Baring ASEAN frontiers … holds a 3 per cent overweight position in Indonesia. He is confident 2015 will be a strong year for the country, given that the macroeconomic environment has improved.

Investors had been wary of Indonesia as they awaited the results of presidential elections in July. However, as Joko Widodo has been elected and interest rates are expected to rise next year, Mr Lim said there is now a positive outlook.

… had mixed feelings about Thailand, which makes up 15.1 per cent of his portfolio. This is in line with the benchmark.
“Thailand has a higher risk than the rest of the countries in the region, as there remains a lot of political uncertainty around the constitution,” …

In July, Thailand adopted an interim constitution ahead of the October 2015 elections. This constitution preserves the military-led government, called the National Council for Peace and Order.

Don’t overlook these high SGX highish yielders

In Indonesia, Japan, Reits on 20/09/2014 at 6:28 am

LMIR Trust to acquire Jakarta mall for 3.6 trillion rupiah

Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust (LMIR Trust) plans to bulk up its portfolio by acquiring a five-storey shopping centre in southern Jakarta, Indonesia, for 3.6 trillion rupiah (S$385.7 million) which it plans to pay with cash and new units.

The acquisition of Lippo Mall Kemang (LMK) from PT Almaron Perkasa – a company incorporated in Indonesia which is 92 per cent indirectly owned by the trust’s sponsor PT Lippo Karawaci – could potentially raise the trust’s portfolio by 27 per cent from S$1.42 billion as at end-June to S$1.8 billion.

LMIR Trust’s manager, LMIRT Management, has proposed to issue up to 301.37 million new units to PT Almaron Perkasa, which under the conditional sale and purchase agreement signed on Sept 14 will receive 3.18 trillion rupiah in cash and 420 billion rupiah in units for LMK.

The firm deemed the deal to buy LMK, which enjoyed a high occupancy rate of 93 per cent as at June this year, a “strategic acquisition of a prominent retail mall” located close to residential apartments, a hotel, a wedding chapel, a school and a country club. LMK also serves as the podium of the proposed JW Marriott Hotel, Pelita Harapan school campus, a planned hospital and three condominium towers. (BT this week)

And

From now till end-March 2017, acquisition strategies will be executed in full swing by Accordia Golf Trust (AGT).

The first Singapore-listed business trust with golf course assets in Japan, and also Asia’s first golf trust, AGT currently manages 89 golf courses in Japan, with a combined value of about 160 billion yen (S$1.89 billion).

Together with its sponsor company, Tokyo-listed Accordia Golf, they own 133 golf courses in Japan, and they are the largest golf operator in Japan, with a 5.5 per cent share of the market.

In a media briefing on Monday, chief executive officer Yoshihiko Machida said the trust is now poised to acquire an additional 50 billion yen worth of golf assets, with a preference for 19 golf courses currently owned by Accordia Golf, of which AGT has the first call options right to purchase. (BT this week)

I own a bit of the former and and still thinking of the latter. The issue with these is the strong S$. (Yen was at an all time low against S$ this week).

Equity mkts: India, Indonesia & Pinoyland looking gd/ Don’t forget S’pore

In ETFs, India, Indonesia on 13/09/2014 at 4:34 am

Examining recent price trends, India has stabilized in dramatic fashion following its dismal performance in 2013.  With superior demographics, a skilled work force, and pro-business leadership, India could prove to be an excellent growth engine over the coming decade.  However, investors should also bemindful of the higher than normal price volatility and look to hold any new investment with a long-term viewpoint.

Circling the globe and focusing in on to the Pacific Rim, Indonesia has had a stellar year following a major decline of over 20% in 2013.  The Market Vectors Indonesia (IDX) is currently up 26.5%, yet appears to still have a lot of room to run to reach its all-time highs.  This ETF is weighted primarily towards large and mid-cap financials, consumer staples, and consumer discretionary stocks.

Indonesia stands to build on excellent GDP growth rates that exceed 5% on a year over year basis. Two thirds of their economy is driven by domestic consumption, which could continue to perform well given their stable democracy and large middle class.  Indonesia also boasts one of the lowest debt to GDP percentages in greater Asian region, which should allow the government to continue its key investments in infrastructure.

Finally, stocks in the Philippines are beginning to show signs of life, with a year to date return of 23.4%.  The iShares MSCI Philipines (EPHE) is dominated by 42 large cap stocks primarily centered around the financial, industrial, and telecom sectors.

Although the Thai protests last year pushed the region into a state of disarray, the Philippines has managed to overcome those fears and has held up relatively well.  The Filipino economy is poised to continue its 2014 run on the back of robust economic growth, increased tourism, and a strong fiscal balance sheet.

In addition, the Filipino peso has been very strong relative to the U.S. dollar and other emerging market currencies.  As a result, GDP growth has exceeded 6.5% over the last two years. These two factors bolster EPHE’s chances of trending higher in the near-term, even despite the country’s moderate levels of wage inequality and foreign investment restrictions.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/082914/these-little-known-emerging-market-countries-are-star-performers.asp?utm_source=newstouse&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=NTU-9/5/2014

Three-month flows into Singapore exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are on course to reach the most since Markit Ltd began tracking the data in 2009. Investors took money out of the stock and bond funds for five straight quarters through June, the Markit data show. The benchmark Straits Times Index has rebounded 13 per cent from this year’s low on Feb 5 and Singapore’s sovereign debt returned 3 per cent this year.

Singapore shares are the most attractive among Asia ex-Japan and emerging-market equities, beating Hungary, Chile and China, according to a Morgan Stanley study using measures from earnings to corporate governance and technical indicators. The investment bank predicts companies in the South-east Asian city-state will beat consensus earnings forecasts after the economy expanded at a quicker-than-expected pace in the second quarter.

“The Singapore market is somewhat undervalued for a pretty strong growth environment with positive earnings revisions,” said Jonathan Garner, Hong Kong-based head of Asia and emerging-market strategy at Morgan Stanley. “We also like the fact that the market scores very highly in terms of our political risk and corporate governance model.” BT on Tuesday)

Tourism potential of Indon, Vietnam & Burma

In China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Vietnam on 24/08/2014 at 4:58 am

Number of foreign visitors received in 2013

  • Thailand – 26.5 million
  • Malaysia – 25.7 million
  • Hong Kong – 25.6 million
  • South Korea – 12.1 million
  • Japan – 10.3 million
  • Indonesia – 8.8 million
  • Vietnam – 7.5 million
  • Myanmar – 2 million

I’m surprised that Indonesia has only 8.8m visitors given the popularity of Bali.

Still Mynamar is the place to invest in the tourism biz. Opportunities there from recent BBC article.

Qn for Swee Say: How cheap you want us to be?

In China, India, Indonesia, Vietnam on 14/08/2014 at 4:36 am

manufacturing wages

When I saw the above table, I tot of the Deaf Frog’s “Cheaper, Better, Faster”. There is always somewhere cheaper as above from FT article shows. And MNCs will move there: now moving from Jakarta and Vietnam to central Java. (Btw, $ + US$)

“Cheaper, Better, Faster’

The apologist version of what he meant by a website funded by a organisation headed by one Philip Yeo after being approached by one BG Yeo (taz the rumour). With credentials like these how not to believe meh?

In 2007, Lim coined the phrase to exhort Singaporean companies to increase their competitiveness.

Companies have to be cheaper and better than their competitors internationally, because those who used to be cheap (China) are now getting better, and those that used to be good (United States) are now getting cheaper as well. Hence, Singaporean companies have to be cheaper and better than them, and yet turnaround faster.

He obviously didn’t do an MBA: it’s accepted wisdom that one cannot have all three, only two. Attempts to have all three results in failure. This should cheer on TRE posters: Swee Say is urging a policy doomed to failure.

 

US broker bearish on Indon, bullish on S’pore

In Indonesia on 12/07/2014 at 5:20 am

In its latest ASEAN equity strategy report (written before the presidential polling date ), Morgan Stanley said that it prefers Singapore over Indonesia, global cyclicals over domestic consumption stocks, and defensives over domestic cyclicals. But on its buy list is a stock that is based in Indonesia.

Actually there is another reason to be bearish about Indonesia, short term. We may not know the result until August and a close vote may hobble the “doer” if he wins, as expected.

Back to Morgan Stanley’s report. It argues that based on profitability trends that Singapore and global cyclicals stocks’ profitability has likely bottomed out, while Indonesia and domestic consumption stocks’ profitability has likely peaked. “We believe the trend in quarterly profitability, particularly in Indonesia and Singapore, is likely to be the key incremental catalyst over the next 1-2 months. Signs of cracks in margins have emerged in Indonesia and early signs of improvement in Singapore’s profitability were observed in Q1. Consensus expects profitability to deteriorate in Indonesia and stabilize in Singapore in Q2.”

Although they said that macro developments will continue to play an important role in driving equity markets, the authors believe that incrementally, investors are likely to turn their attention to the outlook for profitability.

Consensus is expecting improvement in Singapore’s profitability in 2015 and 2016, but Morgan Stanley is more optimistic. It expects (for the stocks they cover) expect a Singapore margin (ex REITs) of 7.5% 2014, compared to consensus’ 6.9%.

Similarly for the Morgan Stanley coverage universe, the analysts estimate 7.6% for 2015, compared to the consensus estimate of 7%.

SingTel, Singapore Airlines and Indofood Agri Resources are among the stocks on its buy list.

For SingTel, it ss expecting margin improvement mainly from Optus in Australia.

For SIA, it expects operating margins to improve on yield and load factor improvements. Near-term yield drivers should come from:

i) healthy domestic market and North Asia demand, particularly from China, Europe and Australia;

ii) strategic moves to focus on mid-haul North Asian routes to avoid competition with low cost carriers on short haul, and

iii) effective capacity management to shift capacity from weak demand routes like America/Africa to Europe, Australia and North Asia.

Longer-term yield improvement from FY15 onwards should stem from i) introduction of premium economy class in 2H15, and ii) retrofitting a new cabin design on 19 new aircraft in 2015 and 2016.

As for Indofood Agri, “operational difficulties in South Sumatra are behind us” and yields in the last two quarters since 4Q13 have shown solid improvement”, which supports the call for a recovery.

“In addition, 2Q14 earnings may surprise on the upside as the Street has not fully factored in the gain from inventory destocking, we believe.”

Indon election: The shouter or the doer? And why it matters to us

In Indonesia on 09/07/2014 at 4:26 am

Here’s the best analysis I’ve come across on today’s election on the difference between the two candidates. The election matters to us because one of the candidates has stressed the importance of military might, saying international respect is based on prowess. Given that the Indonesian governing elite has outstanding grievances against S’pore (largely out of frustration, anger that we don’t kow tow to them), if he gets into power, relations will be tenser than normal. No gd for economic ties.

“You cannot understand these two figures [meaning the two candidates, Joko Widodo, known universally as Jokowi, and Prabowo Subianto] without placing them in the context of ten years of SBY,” the acronym by which Indonesia’s current president, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, is known …

But Mr Yudhoyono’s rule has been exceptionally disappointing for many Indonesians. Mr Winters identifies Mr Yudhoyono’s two major flaws as “his inability to follow through and get things done, and his incapacity to show leadership and make tough decisions.” To compensate for the first failing—which Mr Winters described to me more succinctly as “great PowerPoints, no action”—Indonesians have Jokowi, whose reputation first as mayor of Solo and then as governor of Jakarta rests on nuts-and-bolts administrative competence. As has been amply demonstrated during his campaign, he appears to be incapable of making an electrifying speech. Instead, he likes systems and solutions: as he explained, “I go to the ground, I go to the villages, I go to the riverbank, I go to the market to meet the people. I ask them what they want and what they need and we give solutions.” He wants to move as much of Indonesia’s governance online as possible as a way of avoiding, and thus trimming the power of, Indonesia’s incompetent and sticky-fingered bureaucracy.

Unfortunately, “systems and solutions” is not exactly a to-the-barricade rallying cry. And that is where Mr Subianto comes in: he compensates for Mr Yudhoyono’s second flaw, his indecisiveness, by presenting “a message of firm resolve and calls for national dignity”. He is a former soldier, and his rallies often have a military mien. Where Jokowi is calm and low-key, Mr Subianto has shouted himself hoarse during the campaign. His speeches are full of references to “foreign stooges” and “all of you who have a vision of Indonesian broken apart, a poor Indonesia”.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2014/07/indonesias-election

It’s a close race.

S’poreans should hope the doer wins as a rich, growing stable Indonesia is better for us. Foreign investors certainly prefer him: Deutsche Bank reports that if Mr Prabowo wins, 56% of investors surveyed would sell their Indonesian assets and just 13% would buy, while a Jokowi win would cause 74% to buy and just 6% to sell.

True, if the shouter wins the dirty money will keep on flowing. But there will be more rows and tantrums with S’pore. Mr Subianto (Shouter) has stressed the importance of military might, saying international respect is based on prowess. In addition to the uncertain economic climate that these rows will generate, the rows will give the PAP the excuse maintain and even spend more on defence.

And the full potential of Indonesia’s potential middle class will remain untapped. If the Indonesian middle class expands and grows richer, S’pore will benefit as they come here as tourists and gamblers.

S’pore is Asean equities mkt of choice

In Indonesia, Uncategorized on 14/06/2014 at 4:37 am

Singapore equities are Morgan Stanley’s Asean choice compared with those of Thailand and Indonesia, because of their attractive valuations and defensive nature.

“In a rising rate environment, we believe Singapore could be a relatively safe haven (despite its higher earnings volatility), excluding its relatively vulnerable property sector,” a report by Morgan Stanley Research said yesterday.

In a huge plug for the PAP govt (eat yr hearts out TKL, KenJ, TRE readers), S’pore’s relatively low political and policy risk and its healthy banking system, and well managed cash-generating firms are what makes S’pore its top pick in Asean..

This contrasts to the continued political uncertainty in Thailand and the fact that positive developments on the Indonesian macroeconomic front appear to have already been priced in by equity investors. Morgan Stanley report was neutral on Indonesia, and Thailand was the analysts’ least-preferred market.