A megadrought means Nevada, Arizona and California have all stepped up efforts to limit water consumption.
But when California’s governor Gavin Newsom asked residents in March to cut their water usage by 15% compared with 2020 levels, consumption across the state increased by nearly 20% instead.
Will never happen here. One reason why the millionaire PAP ministers won’t be able to have anything close to Silicon Valley here.
Two days ago I sent a message to an overseas connection who follows the politics and economy here
What I hate about the constructive nation building media and academics. No analysis, only paeans of praise: https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/no-good-time-raise-gst-2022-provides-window-opportunity-politically-and-economically-analysts-1781846
It was about the balls-licking and ass-kissing media and academic (Yes, one of these academics is Eugene Tan*, brown-noser in chief) reaction to PM’s message that GST sure to rise.
(Btw, last year I wrote that PM would say that GST would rise in 2022: Chiat lat! Wah lan GST going up in 2022. But fyi, I still stand by my views in 2020 that there’ll be no GST rise until after next GE: Why there’ll be no GST rise until after next GE and Double confirm, no GST rise until after next GE. I don’t think economic growth will justify taking the PAP govt taking the risk. Lawrence Wong will caveat a 2023 rise with a lot of “ifs” and “buts”, allowing him to avoid a rise.)
Whatever, there’s a brave local academic. At the end of a really long analysis piece on the outlook for inflation here in 2022, he wrote:
MORE SUBSIDIES FOR NECESSITIES?
As we begin 2022, Singaporeans will be looking ahead to Budget 2022, slated to be announced in February, and any measures it would have to help counter the rising cost of living.
The Government could provide more subsidies for necessities such as electricity, food and public transport. Another way to help would be to delay the raising of the Goods and Services Tax (GST).
I would even go a step further and suggest that reducing the GST by one to two percentage points for a year or two would help. To help offset the revenue loss, the Government could increase the marginal tax rate in the highest income bracket.
Overall, the inflation rate in November 2021 is not something to be too worried about, but high inflation can indirectly lead to high interest rates, and those who have loans should look at the interest rates or refinancing options more carefully.
Citizens would also appreciate government subsidies to help with costs.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/commentary/inflation-price-interest-rates-increased-cost-living-2404301
Sumit Agarwal, the author, is no Eugene Tan and
is the Low Tuck Kwong Distinguished Professor of Finance, Economics and Real Estate at the National University of Singapore (NUS) Business School, and the managing director of the Sustainable and Green Finance Institute at NUS. He is also the co-author of Kiasunomics and Kiasunomics 2. The opinions expressed are those of the writer and do not represent the views and opinions of NUS.
CNA
I wish him well in his future career outside S’pore. I’m sure he’s an FT where the T stands for Talent.
===========================
*Eugene Tan must be breaking record in ass licking and Eugene Tan must be breaking record in ass licking
A recent report by some academics on basic standards of living (Three cheers for them on insisting that “basic” doesn’t mean just living above poverty levels*) that have gotten the anti-PAP usual suspects on social media and cyberspace cheering and the PAP govt upset.
A study has found that parents with two children aged two to 12 will need to each earn $2,906 a month to meet a basic standard of living
Read more at https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/parents-2-children-need-earn-about-s5800-6400-monthly-basic-standard-living-study
For a couple with two children aged seven to 18, they will need at least S$6,426 a month to meet their household’s basic needs
A single parent living with a young child will need at least S$3,218 a month
The Ministry of Finance has criticised the study, done by the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy
It said the findings may not be reflective of the circumstances of lower-income families
“What People Need in Singapore: A Household Budget Study (2021)” focuses mainly on two types of households, parents with two children (aged seven-12 and 13-18) and single parents with one child (aged two-six).
But as I don’t fall within the above two categories, I’ll talk about “Single elderly person” category.
Two elderly persons living on less than budget of “one elderly person”
Going by the figure that an oldie like me or my mum supposedly needs (I look only at the bottom line numbers, not the breakdowns), MoF has a point (See ** , juz about) about the accuracy of the figures.
Between me (late 60s) and my mum (coming to 99), we live comfortably within the $1421.30 figure meant for only 1 retiree. And we exceed by $3.40, the figure without housing, healthcare, education and childcare: $1196.59): I assme $1200 for our basic monthly needs. And that includes food for our S’pore Special that has been mistaken for a Thai Ridgeback or a Dobie.
It’s not as though we are that frugal or live just above the poverty line. Yesterday, we had duck’s breast for dinner and tonight we’ll have pork ribs for dinner. Both from the Cold Storage deli, not Fairprice.
Of course, our basic-living-expenses budget excludes the costs of our helper and my mum’s hospitalisation bills (SingHealth and private), and my subs for the FT and Economist. Even if we include the cost to us of our helper and my subs, we are well under a budget of $2842.6 ($1421.30 x 2) let alone $2393.18 (1196.18 x2). Hospitalisation fees is very volatile. Mum had bills in 2019 and this year. Zero in 2020.
Maybe despite eating Cold Store deli food regularly, we are lower-income in the eyes of the PAP govt? We get CDC vouchers. We don’t pay income tax because we live on dividends. (Blur? See ** to understand what I’m talking about).
Whatever, very complicated topic: basic living standards because of cost of living assumptions, group dynamics, profile of the surveyed, compilations and computations.
So kudos to the academics for trying. Especially since they come from that bastion of Hard Truths, the LKY School of Public Policy. Maybe, we’ll see them somewhere else or jobless soon?
*They have detailed in great detail their assumptions and methodology: https://www.asiaone.com/money/how-much-do-you-need-basic-standard-living-singapore? Do read the article. Not the usual constructive, nation-building BS. It’s from a good financial blog, not the SPH group where PAP enablers turn anti-PAP once they stop getting their 30 pieces of silver: Another running dog turned self-appointed tribune of the HDB plebs.
**
The methodology used to arrive at the Minimum Income Standard (MIS) is highly dependent on group dynamics and the profile of the participants.
…
With most participants having post-secondary education and 15 per cent living in private properties, the findings expressed may not be reflective of the circumstances of the lower-income families situation and understates the support given.
https://www.asiaone.com/money/how-much-do-you-need-basic-standard-living-singapore?
Here’s constructive, nation building advice on how the PAP govt can win back 70% of the popular vote, help the poor, grow economy while keeping extra spending to a minimun. No need to raise GST or raid our reserves.
Have cake, eat it.
MONEY MIGHT not guarantee happiness, but income tends to correlate with contentment.
Economist
The economist reports that a
recent paper by Matthew Killingsworth of the University of California, Berkeley, finds that happiness continues to increase even as income ascends to plutocratic proportions, with two caveats. First, the more happiness you want, the more expensive it gets. And second, money is not nearly as important as other factors.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/02/05/money-buys-happiness-but-euphoria-comes-dear
From this the Economist (I’ve said before that it’s the PAP’s bible: PAP’s bible challenges “market-based solution”) concludes:
First, helping the poorest is a bargain. In happiness terms, a dollar goes further for someone earning [US]$20,000 a year than for someone on [US]$40,000. Second, economic growth, much maligned as a yardstick of progress, is important as long as it doesn’t come at the expense of other measures of well-being. Happiness relies on many factors, but a more prosperous future is probably a more contented one too.
Remember you heard this first here. LOL.
Shumething I predicted recently: Why there’ll be no GST rise until after next GE.
Since then there’s these two headlines from last week
COVID-19 downturn to be more prolonged than past recessions, slow recovery for jobs market: MAS
Recent headlines in the constructive, nation-building bmedia
S’pore’s recovery from downturn set to take 18 months, twice as long as earlier recessions: Economists
Before these, there was what Heng said in mid October
A hike in Goods and Services Tax (GST) cannot be deferred indefinitely because it is necessary to support future needs such as preschool education and healthcare.
However, the Government will continue to study the timing of the increase in GST rate carefully. In doing so, it will take into account the pace of Singapore’s economic recovery, its revenue outlook and how much spending can be deferred without jeopardising the country’s long-term needs.
Read more at https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/gst-hike-cant-be-deferred-indefinitely-govt-will-carefully-study-timing-increase-dpm-heng
Going by the next PM’s choice of words,
Government will continue to study the timing of the increase in GST rate carefully. In doing so, it will take into account the pace of Singapore’s economic recovery, its revenue outlook and how much spending can be deferred without jeopardising the country’s long-term needs.
if there’s no V-shaped recovery, but a K-shaped recovery (What’s a K-shaped recovery? Recovery is K shaped), as is likely. there be no GST hike until after next GE. PAP doesn’t believe in suicide.
But next time GST rises, it might be up 4 points? Because
it is necessary to support future needs such as preschool education and healthcare.
PM Lawrence Wong circa 2028
Further to Why S’pore is rich, while S’poreans are poor: Chris Kuan opines (Btw, Chris has explained that he was just channeling the FT writer), here’s an interesting piece from a TRE writer. It’s worth a read.
I know it’s not cool to admit to it, but I’m doing well. I am the official owner of a flat that, once you minus the outstanding liability (ie the outstanding mortgage), leaves me with a sum of at least S$200,000 plus. I have a main job in professional services (accounting) and statistically speaking, I produce around US$103,181 worth of value every year.
Yet, despite my statistical wealth, I am economically unsecure. My best hope is that my main job will keep me on for at least another 20-years and a significant number of you who are reading this will support the advertisers on this blog so that I can afford to buy an extra cup of coffee every month. If, God forbid, I have any serious ailments in the immediate future, my best bet is to die instantly so that I don’t become a burden to my family.
What I’ve expressed would seem strange to anyone living outside of Singapore. However, anyone from Singapore will understand because what I’ve mentioned reflects the disparity between “Statistic” Singapore and “Real” Singapore.
As part of “Statistic” Singapore, I’m doing well. There’s a property to my name (I avoid using the word own as there is a mortgage to my name), and property prices in Singapore are generally higher than in most places (logic of small land area and many people living in the area) and therefore my paper worth is comfortable. Singapore also has a relatively high Gross Domestic Product (“GDP”) for a small island with a limited number of people and if you look at the GDP per capita, the only nations with a higher GDP per capita are Luxemburg (Tax Haven for wealthy Germans), Macao (Gambling Haven) and Qatar (gas station). So, as part of “Statistic” Singapore, my share of the national wealth is US$103,181 a year. This makes me better off than my friends in Western Europe or the USA. Measures of our GDP success cab be found in the following links:
It goes without saying that my reality in Singapore is less rosy than what it appears to be in “Statistic Singapore.” Yet, despite this fact, the government has spent countless times talking about our economic statistics and leaving aside the economic devastation brought about by Covid-19, our government inevitably goes back to our GDP statistics.
In fairness to our government, it’s not the only government to fall back onto various economic indicators as how well they are doing. Donald Trump for example cannot stop talking about stock market highs whenever someone talks about his government’s record.
You could say that it’s only natural for everyone to want to show themselves in a good light and economic statistics are probably the best way to do it. So much of our lives are based on economics and I guess you could say that when governments talk about the economy, it’s a way of showing that there’s money to give us goodies.
However, as the differences between Statistic Singapore and Actual Singapore have shown, GDP is a flawed measure of how well a country is doing as it only looks at one aspect of life in a nation. So, could there be another way of measuring how well a country is doing?
I think one of the best ideas comes from the small Himalayan Kingdom of Bhutan, which came up with the concept of Gross National Happiness (GNH). To a certain extent, there are aspects of this measure of happiness which one could say are unique to the Bhutanese situation. We also need to remember that Bhutan is not the idealistic Shangri La that is portrayed to be and looks to India as a centre of economic assistance. There is also the problematic issue of having to conduct surveys on a yearly basis.
Having said that, the basic idea of GNH is right. The Bhutanese has qualified happiness into several aspects, which include things like the environment, health, cultural diversity and community vitality in addition to the usual economic measurements. A graph of what GNH comprises of can be found below:
Now, admittedly its harder to measure GNH with its various aspects than GDP. However, as argue, GDP is a flawed measurement as it only acknowledges the fact that life more than just economics. If you look at the situation in Singapore, you’ll find that our government is obsessed with GDP. All you need to do is to ensure that enough people are employed and nobody actually starves to think that you’ve done a good job. There is, for example, no need to look at the type of jobs that people are getting and whether things like whether I’m worrying on whether I might be able to afford to send my kid to school or whether I get sick or not.
Let’s go back to my personal example. As GDP indicates, I’m doing well. I have a job and a property in my name. The government can claim that it’s technically done well. People like me are producing USD100,000 plus a year and so on and so on.
However, GNH forces those in power to see that people are not just economic digits. Under the GDP measure, you’d be successful if you see that your people have a job even if that job pays $500 a month. However, under the GNH measurement, you have to ensure that people not only have jobs, but they can afford to send their kids to school, live in normal conditions and don’t have to breath toxic air as part of daily life.
Our traditional method of measuring things is too narrow and doesn’t portray things accurately. Isn’t it time we look at trying to measure things more accurately so that we can build a more livable society for the greater number of us?
Tang Li
*Although I’ve been based mainly in Singapore for nearly two decades, I’ve had the privilege of being able meet people who have crossed borders and cultures. I’ve befriended ministers and ambassadors and worked on projects involving a former head of state. Yet, at the same time, I’ve had the privilege of befriending migrant labourers and former convicts. All of them have a story to tell. All of them add to the fabric of life. I hope to express the stories that inspire us to create life as it should be
Why the world’s richest countries are not all rich
FT Headline
The latest international price comparison shows widening gap between material wellbeing and GDP
It goes on
[T]he income from foreign-owned capital is part of GDP, because it originates within the country, but not part of gross national income, because it is not owned by nationals.
FT
Here’s what Chris Kuan wrote on FB commenting on the FT article
“Said this many times before that our high GDP per capita does not really mean Singaporeans are as rich as the numbers say we are. But let’s hear it from Nobel Laureate Angus Deaton – note that Singapore is one of those eleven richest countries mentioned and his concluding paragraph that exclusive focus on GDP per capita or its growth rate makes little sense:
“Eleven of the 12 countries in the list are either investment hubs or resource-based countries. In both cases, consumption is a relatively low share of total GDP, often because profits account for a larger part of national income than wages and salaries.
Over time, profits will contribute to the income of at least some households and, in turn, their consumption. But at any given moment, GDP per capita includes amounts that are not part of people’s current wellbeing, or their own income.
Furthermore, the income from foreign-owned capital is part of GDP, because it originates within the country, but not part of gross national income, because it is not owned by nationals.
This is a reminder that, absent strong redistributive channels, rich resource-based economies are often internally unequal, because the ownership of resources — especially mineral resources — is confined to a few. That GDP tells us nothing about who gets what is another of GDP’s most familiar criticisms. Nor does GDP speak to the sustainability of natural resources or the use of the environment. The problem is not the accounting, but the definition of GDP.
These arguments call not for the abolition of the GDP numbers, which are essential, but for a more intelligent use of the accounts and for measuring what it does not include.
Continuing efforts to integrate environment-economy accounts or to make GDP less oblivious to distributional questions need support. For policymakers, an exclusive focus on GDP per capita or its growth rate makes little sense. To put it bluntly, the top 12 list is not always where a country would want to be.”
Not many, see below. Even got some (luckily only 12%) “disagree with unemployment benefits, as they believe there are enough training and job opportunities”. Queen Jos and other millionaire ministers must be smiling. These people must also be part of this group: Sia suay! 24% of S’poreans are more PAP than the PAP on our reseves)
When posed with a scenario of paying higher taxes to fund unemployment benefits:
Only 31% of Singaporeans feel those unemployed should receive financial support while looking for work, even if it means paying higher taxes. But support is higher among Gen Zs (37%) compared to the older Baby Boomers (23%)12% of Singaporeans disagree with unemployment benefits, as they believe there are enough training and job opportunities
57% of Singaporeans believe in giving financial support to those unemployed, but not at the expense of themselves having to pay higher levels of tax
https://blackbox.com.sg/everyone/2020/09/16/sg-employment-is-there-any-chance-of-going-back-to-the-way-things-were (Yes, Yes I know this was done in August)
S’poreans are a selfish lot. They deserve a Pay And Pay government.
What do you think?
Covid-19 is making govts all over the world ditch their ideologies and becoming pragmatists .
The PAP govt is no exception: its forcing the banks (protected and cosseted by the PAP govt) to be nice to debtors:
With many borrowers expected to continue to face financial issues amid a prolonged COVID-19 pandemic, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is extending its support measures for various groups of borrowers, including allowing those with property loans to apply to temporarily reduce their monthly instalment payments.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/covid-19-mas-extends-financial-relief-measures-borrowers-13202850
Those with renovation and student loans may also opt for a longer repayment period, while small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) will get to partially defer principal payments for some loans and receive customised restructuring options.
The MAS, in its media release on Monday, urged borrowers who are able to resume loan repayments in full to start doing so from January so as to avoid increasing their overall debt.
In the late 70s when I was in London, I heard a story that at a recent PAP cadre conference, the word “socialism” was removed from the PAP’s constitution. So it’s nice to see the PAP returning to its socialist roots. One Harry Lee must be spinning in his urn.
Of course all these moratoriums affect banks’ profits. There’ll be those who can pay and pay, but will ask for a delay. They can use the cash that would have gone to the banks to play the markets.
And there’ll be a day when the banks have to write off the loans that the govt is now forcing them to pretend are not in default, and extend.
But don’t worry, the PAP govt is on top of the situation. In a sign that things could deteriorate for the banks and their investors:
Financial institutions will be allowed to use their security interests in Housing and Development Board (HDB) flats as collateral for liquidity from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), as part of the Government’s plan to improve their access to funding from the central bank amid the COVID-19 crisis.
The new rule is part of the amendments to the Housing and Development Bill passed on Tuesday (Oct 6).
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/banks-pledge-hdb-property-loans-to-mas-credit-liquidity-13212374
Of course, Minister for National Development Desmond Lee had to say
that although banks in Singapore have healthy liquidity buffers, greater access to credit will strengthen their resilience given current economic headwinds and is a “pre-emptive measure”.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/banks-pledge-hdb-property-loans-to-mas-credit-liquidity-13212374
He would have to say this wouldn’t he?
What do you think? Is the minister BSing?
Btw, when banks cut dividends further: Can local bank stocks fall by 37%? (cont’d)
I’m 65 and have been in comfortable retirement, since around 45 when I couldn’t find a job that would keep me paying income tax at the highest marginal rate: thanks to the PAP’s economic policies that are “Feared by the poor, loved by the rich”.
I was so comfortable that at 55, I never withdrew $ from my CPF account. Now, I’m even happy to delay getting my “Ownself pay ownself” pension until I’m 70.
But despite the PAP’s “Feared by the poor, loved by the rich” policies being juz the thing for me, I’ve never voted for the PAP.
I have had to vote regularly because the Siglap area is considered by the Wankers as friendly ground. Whenever I voted, I voted for the Wankers except in 2015 (Out of respect for one Harry Lee and disappointed in WP Low, more interested in $ than getting his team to voice voters’ concerns). I never ever wanted to give PAP a blank cheque.
I even voted for an ex-Woodbridge patient. LKY was really upset that this Wanker got 25% without even trying. I did feel bad after this incident because the Wankers littered the area after the GE refusing to take down their signage. They were really then under Saint JBJ a party of bicycle thieves, nut cases and mamas: WP Low made the WP a serious multi-racial party led by Teochews.
Mrs PM said “free rider” doesn’t mean “free loader”. But she should have told PM that when she vetted his speech. PM came across as using “free rider” to mean “free loader”.
Actually, I’m happy to admit that I’m a free loader who supports the PAP’s economic policies (“Feared by the poor, loved by the rich”) but who votes Oppo because I don’t want to give PAP a blank cheque.
When S’poreans gave the PAP 69% of the popular votelook what happened:
Pay And Pay returned with a vengeance.
Remember VivianB had said in parly in 2015 (juz before GE) that there was no need to change the price of water because of PUB’s improvements in membrane tech and productivity and that the water tariff and WCT reflected the scarcity of water, but prices went up after GE 2017.
Why Pay And Pay govt wants elections earlier than later
And
Pay And Pay
Articles and analysis of various “price increase” written by Uncle Leong (Remember him?)
Water – “PUB: $1.1b profits last 7 years – how much last 53 years? (Feb 24, 2017)
Service & Conservancy Charges – “S & CC: A truly caring Govt?” (Feb 17, 2017)
Gas – “City Gas prices to rise by 4.5 per cent from Feb 1” (Jan 31, 2017)
Electricity – “Electricity: One of the highest in the world? (Jan 1, 2017)
Childcare fees – “Fee hikes at 200 childcare centres this year” (Jan 1, 2017)
Parking – “HDB car park rates increase 60%? (Dec 16, 2016)
Rubbish fees – “Rubbish fees up: NEA surplus up 32.9%? (Nov 8, 2016)
University hostel fees – “University hostel fees up 6.8% p.a. despite $1b surplus?” (Jun 28, 2016)
Taxis licensing – “Taxi drivers hit by triple whammy?” (Jun 24, 2016)
Hawkers’ misc fees – “Hawkers’ misc fees increased by ? %? (Jun 22, 2016)
Why Pay And Pay govt wants elections earlier than later
Then there was the controversy about the presidency: #hardlymahpresident and Elected President: Oh, what a tangled web we weave cont’d.
The PAP tot they were the masters, and we the servants.
Related post: Legitimacy problem for the PAP as 9% of voters get smarter.
Not me but a regular TRE commentator. Worth a read. (Btw, glad that the writer has recovered: More evidence that being anti-PAP is bad for yr mental health.)
Have you heard of the Malaysian core? What about the Indonesian core? Or the Vietnamese core? There simply isn’t any talk of such a thing because it is a given, a birthright that needs no debate and discussion.
Only in this country do we keep talking about protecting a Singaporean core, even worse about restoring a lost Singaporean core.
Singapore was built on the backs of our forefathers. We grew up reciting the pledge with clenched fist. Our sons dutifully made it through National Service.
Yet we have become natural-born citizens who have to be assured that Singaporeans come first, that the long-neglected Singaporean core will be made good and whole once again.
In his parliamentary speech yesterday, West Coast GRC Member of Parliament Ang Wei Neng called for the setting-up of a National Human Resource Committee to nurture a Singaporean core of talent.
He recounted his experience at Changi Business Park before the COVID-19 outbreak, when for the first time he felt “like a foreigner in my own country”. He went on to question why there are so many Employment Pass, E-Pass and S-Pass holders in Singapore.
Also in Parliament yesterday, Minister of State for Manpower and Education Gan Siow Huang stressed that employers should view Singaporeans favourably when hiring and retain citizens over foreigners if retrenchment cannot be avoided.
For years, Singaporeans have been crying out loud but they were given 1,001 reasons why the foreign influx must continue unabated. Those who continued to complain were called racists and xenophobic.
It is only today that politicians from the People’s Action Party are saying the things the people have been saying for more than a decade.
It is only today that the ones who persisted with the vile policies start to say don’t worry, we will look after Singaporean workers first, we will have your backs no matter what.
Instead of jumping for joy at hearing that the Singaporean core will now be protected (or are they only paying lip service?), we should be asking how this travesty has been allowed to happen in the first place.
How on earth did natural-born Singaporeans get sidelined and squeezed out in our own backyard?
Augustine Low
Btw, it’s also a good riposte to PM’s
The Government will always be on the side of Singaporeans. What is the point of creating jobs for foreigners, if it does not benefit Singaporeans? Why would we want to do that?
PM in parly recently.
Where are the S’porean kids from elite schools? Shouldn’t they be helping less fortunate fellow S’porean students?
But don’t blame these privileged, elite kids. They too are victims of S’pore’s world class education system.
He said that during his school days in the 1950s (and mine too in the early 1970s), “only the academically weak students of rich parents take remedial tuition … Today, any parent who can afford the fees will send their children not for remedial but enhancement classes to give their children a head-start”.
Mandarin Ngiam on “elitism”, “social divide”, education etc
I know a middle middle class gal (family lives in an HDB flat) from elite schools who is now an overseas scholar grounded in S’pore because of Covid-19. Not surprised she needed tuition in Chinese, but was surprised that she needed tuition in advanced maths. My cousin’s son needed tuition in chemistry. His mum wondered why in a class size of 25 (ACSI), tuition was needed.
Sorry back to these kids that shame S’pore
As part of a volunteer programme to help underprivileged children, 15-year-old Mihika Mishra used to go to a two-room HDB flat every week to do fun activities with a three-year-old girl and teach her how to read.
“Because of the pandemic, obviously that programme had to shut down. I couldn’t help but wonder what she must be going through,” Mihika said, stating that the girl lived with six others in the flat.
“I wanted to create a platform that allowed children like her to have an escape, just to have some fun or explore activities.
Mihika talked about it with Arsh Sheikh, her good friend and classmate from the Overseas Family School.
…
The solution they came up with was Explorexa, a platform that uses Zoom to host fun and free 45-minute lessons for children aged three to 18. The thrice-weekly sessions, ranging from art and baking to singing and dancing, are taught by fellow students who have some talent or experience in these fields.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/covid-19-free-online-learning-activities-kids-children-explorexa-12995654
I’ll end with this warning from Ngiam:
“Though there will still be the exceptional individual who triumphs against all odds, more and more of our state scholars will come from upper, middle income families with professional parents.”
“There is no easy answer to the problem of an uneven playing field in our schools.”
No returning to pre-Covid world, with trade and business changed ‘irrevocably’, says Chan Chun Sing
Read more at https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/no-returning-pre-covid-world-trade-and-business-changed-irrevocably-says-chan-chun-sing
So let’s cut to the chase, let’s have a new social contract, PAP govt?
You’ve been floundering trying to find a new one acceptable to ordinary S’poreans since the 2011 GE and PE. Returning part of our money worked in 2015 (Are you better off now than you were in 2011?) but didn’t in 2020 (S’poreans see Fortitude Budget no ak and Legitimacy problem for the PAP as 9% of voters get smarter.)
Here’s the deal.
We keep giving you 60-70% of the popular vote, let u bully the Wankers and Cheng Bock’s gang, and social media, and be mean to the ang moh tua kees and their allies, the drug baron, mules and addicts. And btw sllow you to feel free to takan PM’s siblings and their families.
In return let’s have Albert Winsemius’ Dream for S’pore
“[F]ull employment”
(Its not “full” employment when unemployed S’porean PMETS are deemed employed because they drive taxis or do Grab trips.)
Followed by
“Only when every Singaporean can go to the level of education he needs;
“Only when every Singaporean can establish a family and have children;
“Only when every Singaporean can find a job that he can do to his best capacity;
“Only when he can grow old without financial worries;
“Only when he can get sick without loss of pay;
“Only when he can afford to die without financial worries for his wife and children … then you have a Singapore.”
Dhanablan’s recollection of what Albert Winsemius said: file:///C:/Users/GBT/Downloads/Booklet_-SG50-Winsemius%20(2).pdf
For the record, he was our chief economic adviser from 1961-84, and with Dr Goh Keng Swee and Hon Swee Sen, was responsible for the economic framework that made S’pore a shining city on a tropical island swamp.
Btw, I wrote
For all their academic brilliance Ah Loong and team have not advanced beyond tinkering with the framework that Dr Goh Keng Swee, Hon Swee Sen and Albert Winsemius devised. Evolution is fine to a point. But surely the world has undergone revolutionary change. When they were constructing their model of serving MNCs as a path to grow the economy, serving MNCs was “neo-colonialism”. Today even Red China serves as the MNCs’ factory.
Not me but the Economist on Not In My Back Yard S,poreans:
Migrant workers are vital to Singapore’s economy, as they make up two-fifths of the labour force. But they are not a popular cause.
…
So it is brave of the government to pick a fight with voters on the subject, with an election expected within months.
On June 1st Lawrence Wong, co-chair of Singapore’s covid-19 task-force, announced plans to build lower-density dormitories for some 100,000 migrant workers. The new housing, he warned, would inevitably encroach on other residential areas. When the government built workers’ dormitories in one central district in 2009, the pap was subsequently thumped at the ballot box there.
https://www.economist.com/asia/2020/06/20/singapore-promises-roomier-digs-for-migrant-workers
And alt media and anti-PAP social activists keep blaming the PAP for the FT dorm problem.
Notice the deafening licence from the Wankers, Lim Tean and Goh Meng Seng and other oppos on the FT dorms’ problems?
The worst electoral showing for the ruling People’s Action Party (pap) was in 2011, when the opposition put a call for fewer migrants at the heart of their campaign.
Economist
Only the SDP has spoken out on the FT dorms’ problems.
This table shocked me. Only listcos btw.
On her FB page, a friend (real life) who migrated to Australia (her genius of a son could not pass Chinese to save his life and ended up in neighbourhood “good” school: not good enough for mummy) in a conversation about purchasing power parity (The PPP is a macroeconomic tool that allows the comparison of what it costs to buy the same/similar basket of goods across different countries.) wrote:
In my observation Singapore has a big range, so happily the options are many – in housing, transport, dining & food. If one is happy/limited to shelter in public housing, MRT/uber & airconed hawker centres/bistros you can have a pretty decent life. In Australia the range is much narrower, for instance, there isin’t that many ultra-expensive restaurants nor cheap and good food outlets
She also analysed the relative rankings of S’pore and Oz:
Surprisingly Singapore just scraped through at #50 of the world’s most expensive countries with a price level of minus 4% below average. Australia has the dubious honour of being #6 with a price level of +68% above average.
Whatever, we may be living in a de facto one-party state, but we sure can mix and match our life style choices.
Vote wisely: Is there really a better alternative to PAP 4G?
But try to make sure PAP share of the vote juz exceeds 60%: Why 65% of the popular vote is so impt to the PAP. If more sure to PAP and Pay
Pay And Pay
Articles and analysis of various “price increase” written by Uncle Leong* (Remember him?)
Water – “PUB: $1.1b profits last 7 years – how much last 53 years? (Feb 24, 2017)
Service & Conservancy Charges – “S & CC: A truly caring Govt?” (Feb 17, 2017)
Gas – “City Gas prices to rise by 4.5 per cent from Feb 1” (Jan 31, 2017)
Electricity – “Electricity: One of the highest in the world? (Jan 1, 2017)
Childcare fees – “Fee hikes at 200 childcare centres this year” (Jan 1, 2017)
Parking – “HDB car park rates increase 60%? (Dec 16, 2016)
Rubbish fees – “Rubbish fees up: NEA surplus up 32.9%? (Nov 8, 2016)
University hostel fees – “University hostel fees up 6.8% p.a. despite $1b surplus?” (Jun 28, 2016)
Taxis licensing – “Taxi drivers hit by triple whammy?” (Jun 24, 2016)
Hawkers’ misc fees – “Hawkers’ misc fees increased by ? %? (Jun 22, 2016)
Why Pay And Pay govt wants elections earlier than later
————————————————
*PM’s defamation suit against Uncle Leong coming to court soon. Talk cock, sing song Lim Tean is defending him but charging a lot of money. Not pro bono work.
Our debt already so high. Still want to spend so much money?
How come PAP running dogs (Apologies to the real dogs) in parliament not KPKBing that PAP must be prudent and not pass on the sins of overspending onto future generations.
The PAP govt is throwing US$41.6, more than 10% of GDP to fight the economic and financial consequences of the pandemic in an election year.
Whatever happened to MPs like Liang Eng Hwa, Kate Spade (who else?), Hri Kumat and Arthur Fong: PM aiming left, to hit the centre/ Axed? PAP MPs who don’t get it.
When they so quiet?
Govt change policy, so they sit down and shut up?
Related posts:
We bottom of the class in the developed world when it comes to accountability. We Third world.
A one time PAP apologist and PAP poster boy, Prof Tommy Koh’s comment, “The way Singapore treats its foreign workers is not First World but Third World,” can be rephrased “The way the Singapore government treats its citizens is not First World but Third World.”
Think the tai chi over the Covid-19 cases among our FT workers living in PAP govt approved dorms. The PAP govt screwed up, denies it screwed up (Not even willing to say “It’s an honest mistake”), and we are in lockdown.
But
The former disagree with “The PAP is always right”, always willing to challenge the PAP on issues where they think the PAP doesn’t get it, or where they think there are better alternatives to the path the PAP is taking. In this category are the likes of Yeoh Lam Keong, Chris K, Dr Paul Thambyah (even if he’s chairman of the SDP), Mr Chiam, Dr Tan Cheng Bock and the PSP are like that. This is a good example of how these people think and behave.
The Wankers’ Party and its members, when they stop wanking themselves, and find their balls (as they occasionally) do are also in this camp.
The anti-PAP types are those who say “The f**king PAP bastards are always wrong”.
They could be sincere social justice warriors like Terry Xu of Terry’s Online Channel, Gilbert Goh and Teo Soh Lung. They could be ang moh tua kees like PJ Tham and Kirsten Han.
Or self serving opportunists like Goh Meng Seng, Lim Tean, Mad Dog, Tan Kin Lian, Tan Jee Say and that guy on Finland’s dole, who do not wish S’pore well: Anti-PAP activists loi hei wish.
Or juz cybernuts like grave-dancing Oxygen and other TRE and TOC ranters.
I can’t make my mind whether Donald Low and Tay Kheng Soon oppose the PAP or are anti-PAP.
I’ll end with Dr Tan Cheng Bock’s FB post:
Wuhan Virus – Stay Calm. Take Care. Be Considerate.
In 2003, Singapore faced the SARs virus. Our country overcame and learned invaluable lessons in outbreak management and spread containment. We then applied these lessons to counter subsequent threats such as the swine flu and the H1N1 bird flu.
Today, the Wuhan virus has landed on our shores. It is a new virus that the world has never seen before. Worldwide, governments and health professionals are sparing no effort combating this mutant strain – learning its behaviour, treating patients and hopefully finding a vaccine soon.
At the frontline, brave doctors, nurses, paramedics, hospital, laboratory and clinic staff are literally risking their lives to lead the fight. They have my utmost admiration. Let’s do everything we can to support our health workers.
For the rest of us, we can also play our part. The DORSCON level in Singapore is now orange. Understandably, some people have acted in fear by storming the supermarkets to the extent that NTUC Fairprice has had to impose purchase limits for paper products, rice and instant noodles.
What we can do may not seem much compared to our courageous health workers. But if everyone chips in, it will send a signal that we stand with them. To do so, we also need to be brave in the way we react.
Stay Calm
The 1st thing we can do is to Stay Calm. It takes courage not to panic. If parents remain cool and steady, your children will learn to do so as well. Don’t forward rumours on social media. Don’t panic buy groceries. Don’t blame others. Worry and stress will also affect your health and the quality of your sleep. Panicking helps nobody, least of all ourselves.Take Care
The 2nd thing we can do is to Take Care. Take good care of your personal health and hygiene. If we stay healthy, we will help free up the medical profession to treat those who really need medical care and attention. Exercise regularly. Eat healthy. Keep your living areas clean. Wash your hands often. You will be an asset to those in need when you are strong.Be Considerate
The 3rd thing we can do is to Be Considerate. Think of the well-being of others. Look out for the interest of our senior citizens and young children. Stay home if you are unwell. Wear a mask if you have a cold or are coughing. Your cough may be harmless but you will ease the worry of others when you wear a mask.If you are under quarantine, follow all the prescribed regulations to stop the spreading of disease. Don’t avoid giving your information for contact tracing. Co-operate fully. It may seem a little more troublesome and take up your time, but it is the right and good thing to do. Keep others safe and others will keep you safe.
Let’s do this together with our frontline heroes. Don’t leave this fight to them. This virus is everyones problem, and together, with God’s grace, we shall overcome. Remember, Stay Calm, Take Care and Be Considerate.
For country, For people.
Commentary: Is low growth the new normal for Singapore?
Hoon Hian Teck is Professor of Economics at the Singapore Management University.
A shrinking citizen workforce, the law of diminishing returns to capital, and the time needed to bring about a culture shift towards indigenous innovation all portend low growth for Singapore. Is there any reason to remain optimistic?
He then goes into great detail about the
shrinking citizen workforce, the law of diminishing returns to capital, and the time needed to bring about a culture shift towards indigenous
which inevitably lead to low growth.
I couldn’t disagree with his analysis, even if I tot he overdid the gloom: remember I’m invested in shares here and got landed property here.
He ends his gloomy analysis
IS THERE A CASE FOR OPTIMISM?
A shrinking citizen workforce, the law of diminishing returns to capital, and the time needed to bring about a culture shift towards indigenous innovation all portend low growth for Singapore. Is there any reason to remain optimistic?
The answer is yes. Singapore has been able to achieve domestic social and political consensus to reinvent itself to ride on opportunities thrown up by the global economy, and find new ways of overcoming our constraints.
When it faced a severe recession in 1985, caused in part by wages running ahead of productivity, workers accepted a 15-percentage point cut in employers’ CPF contribution rate, which was gradually restored.
Having recovered, workers’ skills were developed to take advantage of the growing financial sector fuelled by funds flowing into a booming region from 1989 to 1998.
Through government initiatives announced over recent Singapore Budgets, firms have also been encouraged to embrace automation, digitalisation and reskilling, and rely less on foreign labour in a manpower-lean economy.
More recently, bold plans for the Greater Southern Waterfront after the ports are relocated away from Tanjong Pagar to free up valuable land to be redeveloped in the downtown region were announced just last year.
So Singapore can surely find the necessary gumption to reinvent itself again and overcome its constraints.
In a u-turn from the numbers-driven analysis he was using in explaining why the economy was growing slowly, he introduced non-quantitative factors to explain why we’ll soon have strong growth. As an intelligent being would say “Does not compute”. It doesn’t does it?
His concluding optimistic remarks remind me of the use of Deus ex machina. This
is a plot device whereby a seemingly unsolvable problem in a story is suddenly and abruptly resolved by an unexpected and unlikely occurrence. Wikipedia
I get the impression that he suddenly realised that he doesn’t wanted to be accused by a PAP MP as someone “who does not wish S’pore well”, anti-PAP activists PJ Thum and Kirsten Han were so accused (and rightly so): Kirsten Han trying to defecate herself and PJ out of self-made crater. If he were branded as wishing S’pore ill like them, he could lose his job. They had nothing to lose, unlike him.
So he u-turned and ended up as yet another constructive, nation-building academic PAP running dog (Apologies to the real dogs).
Mean of me to call our academics running dogs (Apologies to the real dogs again)?
BSing academics protected from fake news law?
Local academics propogate fake news?
Fixing the Oppo: Constructive, nation-building media and academics at work
What do you think?
Apologies also to a regular reader who was a head of a department in an atas faculty in NUS. People there don’t need to be PAP running dogs (Apologies to the dogs again) to get ahead. Sheer brain power only.
Usually what gets anti-PAP ang moh tua kees and cybernuts into orgasms of frenzy are ignored by hard working S’poreans. But Bayee’s Pritam’s question in parly and Kee Chiu and his sidekick’s response* has had hard working S’poreans upset.
The following piece that appeared in TRE reflects very accurately what PMETs are saying around their office water coolers and pantries, blue-collar workers are saying in their factoty canteens, and S’poreans in general are saying around their dining tables, and in food courts and kopi tiams.
We can get you the numbers, but you don’t need to know
I refer to this article on Today.
Basically, in Parliament on 6th January, the PAP declared that Singaporeans are getting more jobs, 60,000 local employment. Mr Pritam Singh requested for the specific number in terms of PRs and Singaporeans.
However, Mr Chan Chun Sing vehemently refused to answer that question.
1) Mr Chan deflected the question, and instead questioned Mr Singh’s need for accurate, factual data.
2) Mr Chan made a one-sided universal declaration that ALL Singaporeans are getting good jobs, and ALL Singaporeans are getting increased wages. And he did so by not providing numbers to back his claim.
3) Mr Chan insinuated that there should be no divide between Singaporeans and PRs. He might as well just say out loud there is no difference between a Singaporean and a PR.My thoughts:
I think it is fairly disturbing that ministers and MPs can evade answering actual questions, and taichi their way out of it. We’re asking for factual numbers and figures! Not a grandfather story! Just answer the goddamned question!Secondly, we are just supposed to just believe what Mr Chan says at face value, without any evidence? If you are so confident of what you say, you wouldn’t mind showing us the numbers, right?
As Singaporeans, we have the right to accurate and factual information. We cannot allow ourselves to be denied of the truth, just because some politician thinks it is not beneficial for us to know!
We have a right to demand full disclosure of such reports.
Angry Citizen
Given that the PAP is struggling to get 65% of the vote (Ground is not sweet for an early 2020 GE) one can reasonably wonder if Kee Chiu and Chee are trying to sabo Heng, the PM in waiting?
But maybe the MTI ministers are juz incompetent? Or are are making an honest mistake?
What do you think?
Whatever, they should realise that S’poreans (not juz the really hard core 30%ers) are suspicious of the PAP govt’s FT policies: see point 17 in table in Not Fake News: S’poreans still very satisfied with PAP govt.
Why 65% of the popular vote is so impt to the PAP: the pass mark for bragging rights that they have the people’s mandate.
*Senior Minister of State for Trade and Industry Chee Hong Tat (Kee Chiu’s side kick in MTI) saka his boss on 8 Jan in a Facebook post to caution against “driving a wedge in society” by differentiating between PRs and citizens, warning that all attempts to drive a wedge between different groups in society should be rejected, calling for people to “stand resolute” against efforts to “stir fear and hatred for political gain”.
Further to Mad Dog, Lim Tean and other cybernuts are peddling fake news, BlackBox’s latest (December) Government Satisfaction Index fell 1 point to 79. The change over the last 12 months also fell 1 point. Looks like S’poreans are really satisfied despite what Mad Dog, Lim Tean, Meng Seng, and TOC’s M’sian Indian goons (Terry and his “bunch of Indians”) and other cybernuts are saying: that S’poreans are so unhappy that the PAP govt will be overthrown by the Spastics League?
Vote wisely.
S’poreans are not unhappy with the PAP govt. In fact, they are very happy with the PAP govt.
If you listen to what Mad Dog, Lim Tean, Meng Seng and other cybernuts say, you’d think that S’poreans are ready to vote out the PAP because they are unhappy with the PAP. But Blackbox data tells us otherwise.
Going more granular
18th century English philosopher, Edmund Burke, wrote:
“Because half a dozen grasshoppers under a fern make the field ring with their importunate chink, whilst thousands of great cattle, reposed beneath the shadow of the British oak, chew the cud and are silent, pray do not imagine that those who make the noise are the only inhabitants of the field.”
Translated for the benefit of cybernuts, “Six noisy grasshoppers share the field with thousands of cattle. Do not imagine that those who make the noise are the only inhabitants of the field.”
Vote wisely.
Btw, time to issue more POFMA orders?
Above was what I tot when I read a constructive, nation-building headline that screamed
Singapore watches Hong Kong ‘with concern’; current situation at ‘breaking point’: Chan Chun Sing
Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/singapore-hong-kong-concern-breaking-point-chan-chun-sing-12104088
As usual he’s clueless. Can he really be an RI boy? But then Tan Kin Lian is also an RI boy. As is Tan Jee Say and Lim Hng Kiang. Thank God, Peter Lim, Edmund Wee (Creative thinking at URA), Rashid Hussain (Remember him?), Dr Paul Thamby (makes sure Mad Dog takes his pills), Ang Yong Guan and Erika Poh are also from RI.
Seriously, Kee Chiu and his fellow millionaire ministers are watching the wrong place. They should be watching the riots in Chile with fear and trepidation because while S’poreans are starting to think like the Chileans who riot, the PAP govt is behaving like the clueless Chilean govt (headed by a billionaire president), prior to the riots. Btw, it Chilean govt is still clueless. But I want to emphasis what it and PAP govt miss about what the voters in both countries really want.
Let me explain.
Further to What riots can achieve, about how the Chilean rioters forced the govt to scrap MRT price rises, increase minimum wages etc, here’s a quote that TOC’s M’sian Indian goons and cybernuts will say applies here too
Most Chileans worry about “low pensions, lack of access to decent housing, health care and medicine, and of again falling into the poverty from which they escaped”, the rector of the Catholic University, whose economists dreamed up the Chilean “model”, wrote this week.
Economist
Here’s where the situation sounds like S’pore, giving the lie to what PAPpies like Kee Chiu and Kate Spade Tin (Remember her?) about poverty being absolute, not relative,
“Chile’s problems are more to do with the expectations that come from success. Standards have become higher and . . . the last administration and this administration do not offer anything fresh, any vision for the long-term economic future of the country.”
(Nicholas Watson, Latin America managing director at the consultancy Teneo talking to the FT.)
And
[P]roblems are more to do with the expectations that come from success. Standards have become higher
FT
Other than rising expectations, the really big problem in Chile that is very relevant in S’pore is
the last administration and this administration do not offer anything fresh, any vision for the long-term economic future of the country
FT
Yes, yes, I know the PAP always has a master plan for the future. And PM and Heng have been talking about the latest. But as I’ve explained before, it’s all copy and paste.
———————————————–
Another decade, yet another copy and paste restructuring report
“I’m sorry but
“We are feeling the pains of restructuring, but not yet seeing the dividends of our hard work. But we are pursuing all the right strategies, and I am confident that given time these strategies will work for us.”
smacks of “Jam to-morrow and jam yesterday – but never jam to-day”
Pardon my cynicism.
We’ve been here before. How many times has economy been “restructured” since the 80s? And how many times have SMEs been helped to “restructure and tide through challenging times”?”
And
Another decade, another restructuring report?
In the 80s, one Lee Hsien Loong as trade and industry minister headed a committee to recommend changes in the economy. In the early noughties when DPM he headed another committee on the same issue.
In 2010, one Tharman and his committee produced the 2010 Economic Strategies Committee (ESC). And now there’s the CFE. It’s a bit early, but then there wasn’t a report in the 90s: so maybe making up for lost time?
If Lee Hsien loong’s 1980s plan was so successful, why keep needing plans every decade? Plan succeeded, but circumstances change said people from constructive, nation-building media like Balji and Bertha then. Really?
Here’s a riposte to recent platitudes by Heng that Mad Dog Chee vetoed the SDP from using: “Pull the other leg Heng, it’s got bells on it”
—————————————————————————————————
What I’m really saying (in the box above) is that the time is coming soon that the copy and pasting will not work even incrementally.
Returning to what’s happening in Chile
This arson was part of a collective nervous breakdown in Chile, ranging from peaceful protests demanding a fairer and less unequal society, to nightly looting of supermarkets and feral criminality, with marauding delinquents robbing homes.
Economist
Turning to my comment that S’poreans are starting to think like the Chileans who riot.
Singapore citizens feel stuck in their social classes, according to a survey of 4,015 people aged 18 and above that was conducted between August 2018 and January this year by a state-backed research organisation.
Asked by the Institute of Policy Studies at the National University of Singapore if they felt their financial status would improve in a decade’s time, more than five in 10 said they would experience negligible financial mobility while fewer than one in 10 felt their fortunes would decline.
This pessimism persisted across education levels. Only 44 per cent of those with a degree were hopeful of upward mobility in 10 years’ time, with the figure falling to 40.6 per cent for Singaporeans with vocational training or a polytechnic diploma. For those with a secondary school education or below, such as food deliveryman Alroy Ho, 32, only 23.8 per cent expected to do better in future, with 10.6 per cent thinking they would be worse off.
No not Terry’s Indian M’sian goons trying to stir the pot for CIA or MI6 $ but the
The findings, released on October 29 in a paper titled Faultlines in Singapore: Public Opinion on their Realities, Management and Consequences, asked respondents for their views on five topics researchers thought could affect social cohesion. These were race, religion, immigration, class, and lesbian, gay, transgender and bisexual issues.
South China Morning Post
And the SCMP goes on
Argie president Mauricio Macri’s plan to delay payments on more than U$101bn of debt, is a de facto default.
Todd Martinez, director of sovereign ratings at Fitch debt agency, had earlier told the BBC’s Today programme that Argentina had three options to repay what it owes – most of which is in US dollars – and none of them “looks very viable”.
“It comes down to a simple equation,” he said. “Argentina can either (sic) dip into its savings, borrow new money or achieve a budget surplus.
True of a country, true of an individual. Over-borrowing and over-spending have consequences. Btw, a Hard Truth of the PAP is be prudent. Problem is this leads to the vice of being over-prudent and leads to meanness. Think PAP: Will PM, tonite, give peace of mind on CPF Life Standard?
But to be fair to the PAP: Reason why CPF Life so mean?
Vote wisely.
If a racist rap video was allowed to remain online, it could normalise offensive speech and such attacks against other races could become mainstream, said Law and Home Affairs Minister K Shanmugam.
Speaking at the CNM Leaders Summit organised by the National University of Singapore’s Department of Communications and New Media on Thursday (Aug 22), Mr Shanmugam expanded on why the Government acted to remove the rap video by YouTuber Preetipls and her brother Subhas Nair, which came in response to a controversial “brownface” advertisement.
Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/preetipls-subhas-nair-rap-video-normalised-offensive-speech-11834928
Constructive, nation-building CNA
Well the following article from the BBC about violent protests in West Papua province is evidence that he isn’t talking cock about the probability of violence when there’s official tolerance of racist language. Racist taunts aimed at a group of students from West Papua in Java have sparked violent protests in Indonesia’s West Papua.
What happened in Java last weekend
The groundswell of anger that has fuelled the latest demonstrators was sparked by an incident in the Javanese city of Surabaya at the weekend.
After accusing Papuan university students of damaging an Indonesian flag during Independence Day celebrations, nationalist groups surrounded their boarding house and goaded them with racist taunts, calling them “monkeys”, “pigs” and “dogs”.
Police in riot gear then stormed the dormitory to force the students out. Authorities said the students were briefly questioned before being set free.
This resulted in violent protests in West Papua
The area’s largest protests in years saw numerous buildings torched – including a jail and a market – and resulted in the Indonesian government deploying thousands of additional security officers to an area which is already the country’s most heavily militarised.
The internet has also been shut down to “restore security”, according to the Indonesian government.
But it’s more than racist taunts. Papuan students in Java, told BBC Indonesian they are often made to feel like second-class citizens.
“I have been turned away from student boarding houses and told that they will not receive boarders who are Papuan students,” said Benfa, a Papua student in Yogyakarta.
“We face discrimination and racism daily,” Aris Yeimo, from the Papuan student union, added.
Coming back to the spark that started the riots (the racial taunts), a few Indonesian politicians are showing some sensitivity. The governor of East Java province apologised for the racism in Surabaya, and President Joko Widodo announced plans to visit Papua. But better not to have allowed the taunts in the first place?
Related post:
Brownfacegate: Did you know Shanmugam also said this?
Typical Chinese reaction to “brownface” ad/ Cina also can get upset
HDB sales exercise pushed to September so buyers can benefit from upcoming changes: Lawrence Wong
CNA headline
Mr Wong said that his ministry and HDB have been reviewing how to extend further support to first-timers buying new and resale flats. He will announce the details in September. adding, “We are constantly looking at ways to help young families set up their first homes,” wrote the minister.
The HDB sales exercise is expected to offer about 3,300 flats in Punggol and Tampines.
And to make sure that everyone who has recently bot or is applying for an HDB flat that they owe the PAP one, he reminded S’poreans of
measures which have been introduced in the past years, such as the increase of housing grants for resale flats*, offering flats with shorter waiting times, as well as the flexibility given for students and national servicemen to defer income assessment for housing grants and loans.
“These changes have improved housing affordability and helped young families to secure their own homes earlier,” he added.
Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/hdb-bto-august-sales-exercise-pushed-september-lawrence-wong-11827238
Notice the two elephants in the room that are dancing on his shoulders, he isn’t mentioning?
— Falling resale prices causing a problem for the PAP with those who bot resale flats: Double confirm, ground not sweet for PAP and Will this resale flat buyer vote for PAP in next GE?
— 99-year leases: Why 30-year old HDB flats difficult to sell/ Why PAP rule will end in 2029 and Older HDB flats: How much value is lost in under 2 yrs
If u read this far, suggest u might want read
— The real truths about public housing my summary of piece by “Tan Jin Meng, a postgraduate from the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy. He has an interest in social policy and economics.”.
— Exposed: Flaws in PM’s HDB spin
Vote wisely. My prediction last yr: Akan datang: GE in late 2019
*Why 37,000+ sure to vote for PAP
I know economists are forecasting a recession (How bad things are described at the footnote*) but was surprised the constructive, nation-building ST Super-lite reported this fact in the following manner:
The Government is “not expecting a full-year recession at this point”, Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat said on Friday (July 12), but economists are warning that there is a high likelihood of a technical recession ahead.
Showing that it no ak Heng (Heng trying to make distinction between “a full year recession” and “technical recession”, using economists to show its disrespect isit? Or is ST Super-lite juz clueless?
Waz more the economists were given a lot of pixel space to comment:
WHAT ANALYSTS SAY
Economists said that Singapore’s economic prospects have clearly deteriorated due to downside risks such as the trade war, as well as the slowdown in China and global growth, and the worsening tech cycle downturn.
Nearly all analysts interviewed by TODAY said chances are high that there could be a technical recession, which is defined by two consecutive quarter-on-quarter declines.
Referring to the latest result as “a near stall”, OCBC bank’s head of treasury research and strategy Selena Ling noted that the first half of this year’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) year-on-year growth was at a “paltry” 0.6 per cent, the weakest first half growth since 2009.
It “clearly heightens the risk of a technical recession if growth momentum remains tepid going into the third quarter,” she said.
Mr Joseph Incalcaterra, HSBC Global Research’s chief economist for the Association of South-east Asian Nations, said that the weakness in Singapore’s GDP is “a harbinger of further growth deterioration across the region”.
He added: “What surprised us is how broad-based the deterioration was in Singapore, suggesting that unlike other neighbouring economies, domestic-facing sectors are not strong enough to offset external headwinds.”
Dr Chua and Ms Lee from Maybank Kim Eng, who had previously forecasted a “shallow” technical recession, have downgraded their outlook to a deeper one.
Retrenchments in manufacturing and trade-related sectors are likely to worsen as firms cut back on hiring amid rising uncertainties, they said.
Mr Alvin Liew, an analyst from United Overseas Bank, said that the official forecast could be downgraded to a range of 0.5 per cent and 1.5 per cent in August, highlighting the possibility that the Government’s 0.1 per cent year-on-year flash estimate for the second quarter could be revised into negative territory as well.
MTI’s forecast had put GDP growth at between 1.5 per cent and 2.5 per cent for the whole of 2019.
Remember that S’pore is seen as one of the barometers for global demand given its export-orientated economy: S’pore: the canary in the coalmine
Related posts: PAP: tropical White Walkers?
Winter’s here, and it’s an Antarctic winter
Winter is here, how big will the anti-PAP vote be?
Expect MAS to “manipulate” S$ lower
Even MSM tells us “Ground is not sweet economically”
Ground is not sweet economically/ Authorities may have to do something but no gd options
—————————————————————————————————
*How bad things are
On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annualised basis, GDP contracted by 3.4%, way below the median forecast of 0.1% in a Reuters poll. This was a reversal from the 3.8% growth in the previous quarter and marked the worst quarter-on-quarter performance since the third quarter of 2012. The economy also registered its lowest growth in a decade, expanding just 0.1% on year in the second quarter, missing a forecast rise of 1.1%.
Mao and other revolutionaries will not be happy that despite all the suffering and deaths they inflicted on the Chinese to build a Communist state that, “40% of the overall global luxury watch consumption is Chinese.” This was said by the chief executive Davide Traxler of Parmigiani Fleurier, a once great brand.
He says half the lossmaking watch brand’s social media budget will go on China because “Those consumers also consume in London and Paris and wherever they go, but marketing has to be done in their home countries.” Other areas that buy luxury watches are the rest of Asia, the US and Middle East.
Europeans are too poor according to him.
That’s the downside of countries that provide generous help for the poor. The money got to come from somewhere.
Winter is here and the White Walkers are expected to land at Changi Int’l or the port any time soon.
S’pore’s recent gloomy economic data
— Electronics exports, a major driver of Singapore’s growth over the past two years, saw their biggest decline in more than a decade, hit by a global downturn in the semiconductor industry, data showed last week.
— Overall exports in May declined the most in more than three years as shipments to China slumped.
— The number of retrenchments rose 40% in the first quarter of 2019 from a year ago, driven by cuts in the manufacturing sector, according to official data released this month.
The authorities have to act if there’s going to be a GE this yr. Problem is that there are no good options.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore closely tracks data and there is a growing chance it may ease its currency-focused monetary policy for the first time in nearly three years.
Some say the central bank could even ease outside of its bi-annual meeting schedule as it did in January 2015 when it sought to counter deflationary pressures amid slowing growth.
But a more accommodative stance won’t be enough to reinvigorate the economy, said CIMB Private Banking economist, Mr Song Seng Wun, as a weaker Singapore dollar will not necessarily push up exports.
“Singapore businesses won’t suddenly become so competitive that we are going to be selling a lot more of our goods and services,” he said.
The finance ministry also has limited space to help given already-low tax rates, along with numerous incentives and cost offsets and an expansionary budget this year.
…
Further stimulus could come in the form of tax cuts and more rebates but factory operators aren’t waiting for the government to come to their rescue.
Reuters
Reuters also reported Mr Sam Chee Wah, general manager at Feinmetall Singapore, whose products are used for testing semiconductor wafers, as saying
[H]e’s been bracing for a tech slowdown since last year – holding back hiring and major capital investments. He’s now considering offering discounts or delayed payment terms to customers.
With US-China hostilities showing no signs of abating, Singapore will have to weather the storm for some time to come.
We are not out of the woods yet,” said Ms Sian Fenner, lead economist at Oxford Economics. “We haven’t seen the worst.”:
— Winter is here, how big will the anti-PAP vote be?
— S’pore: the canary in the coalmine/ Is the ground sweet for the PAP?
How 4G leaders going to get 65% of the popular vote( the pass mark for bragging rights that they have the people’s mandate)?
Remember
— Another reason why ground is not sweet for the PAP.
And there’s the promised 2 percentage points GST rise coming possibly, when the economy’s in a recession. This when the PAP govt has huge budget surpluses.
Next week, will forecast what the PAP govt will do.
Economists again lowered their guesstimates for S’pore’s expected growth in 2019 after the year’s first quarter saw its slowest growth in nearly a decade, the latest economic survey from the central bank said on Wednesday. The economists guess this year’s GDP to be 2.1%, down from the previous forecast of 2.5 per cent.
This follows the S’pore’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) – which measures manufacturing activity and sentiment – declined 0.4 point from the previous month to 49.9 in May, said the S’pore Institute of Purchasing and Materials Management (SIPMM) on Monday (Jun 3). This is the first contraction in 32 months or since 2016.(Fyi, a PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion, while one below the benchmark line points to contraction.)
Worse according to a report released by the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW) and financial forecasting firm Oxford Economics released around the same time as the PMI data
Export-dependent Singapore is expected to be hurt the most among major South-east Asian economies, as fears of more trade tariffs between the United States and China set in.
Singapore’s economy is projected to slide from the 3.1 per cent growth last year to 1.9 per cent this year, before recovering slightly to 2.2 per cent in 2020.
Singapore’s projected performance this year falls below the 4.8 per cent growth forecast for the year across the region.
Why Milliennals will vote for the PAP
Heng said last Saturday our time
It is “not a given” that having an opposition party, or having multiple parties, will “result in the best outcome for our society” …
“So the question is this: As our society becomes more diverse, as our people are better educated, better exposed all round the world, how do we harness the energies of everyone in a constructive way and to take Singapore forward? Rather than spend time scoring political points, debating for the sake of debating.”
Buffett said last Saturday at his co’s AGM:
In the end Berkshire should prove itself over time. There are no perpetuities and it needs to deserve to be continued in its present form.”
Since the time GCT and Ah Loong took over, the one-party state leaders have run into one problem after another: asset inflation, MRT breakdowns, immigration etc etc. The younger leaders have not proved themselves. They have been living off the legacies and ideas of the Old Guard.
PAP has lost “output legitimacy”
The PAP govt has lost “output legitimacy”: Discuss
Memo to Paper General heading Computer Security Agency
Even PAP voters don’t trust the PAP to tell the truth
But because there’s some form of Opposition, the PAP govt is forced to spend more of our money on S’poreans (not on foreign investment bankers and other advisers on our reserves) to keep its share of the popular vote above 60%.
Hard Truth why PAP wins and wins
Merdeka Generation: PAP cares for u, really they do
Under PAP rule will S’pore become like UK or Venezuela?
Imagine if there was no Oppo candidates to vote for? We’d have to eat bitter while our reserves pile up.
Vote wisely. Vote tactically.
The first anniversary of regime change in M’sia is coming. This reminded me how happy the ang moh tua kees and their cybernut allies were last yr, saying that regime change was coming here. PJ Thum even asked Tun to bring change here: PJ Thum cares about S’pore?
The ang moh tua kees and their cybernut allies should have read, “Unpopular Culture: The Ritual of Complaint in a British Bank”, published in 2004, was written by a John Weeks, a US academic.
He spent six years observing NatWest (a UK bank, and since 2000 part of RBS, with retail and commercial operations in England and Wales ), investigating why the staff (from the CEO to the tea-ladies) spent so much time grumbling about it.
Their gentle KPKBing, he found, was a sign of affection for NatWest and of loyalty to each other: they were not unhappy with their employer.
An outsider might have assumed the complaining meant the staff disliked the bank, they did not.
Likewise “outsiders” like Kirsten Han, Mad Dog, PJ Thum, s/o JBJ etc, and their cybernut allies like Ozzie-based “Oxygen” (He fled S’pore yrs ago butcan’t get S’pore off his mind: he still has a CPF account and it’s alleged he uses it to evade Oz taxes) think that S’poreans dislike the PAP govt: when in fact our KPKBing about the PAP govt is a sign of affection for the PAP govt and other S’poreans. No wonder, our Harry called us affectionately “champion grumblers”.
Related posts showing why ang moh tua kees and cybernuts are not real S’poreans but clueless”outsiders”:
Cluelessness of ang moh tua kees
10- 20% of voters are anti-PAP cybernuts
What the anti-PAP cybernuts have in common with US progressives
Kee Chiu Cybernuts who want to migrate to Bangladesh
TOC’s Correspondent latest rant on Heng reminded me that Heng implies we need FTs by the cattle truck load, the presumptive PM because because the population is ageing and not reproducing, while we need a 10m population.
Well recently the FT had a piece headlined
Demographic time-bomb: Finland sends a warning to Europe
Facing a rapidly ageing population, the country’s difficulty in passing reforms highlights the hurdles ahead
But interesting it reports in the article that “experts in Finland say the debate on ageing needs to be rethought”.
An expert
Prof Vaarama says that it is wrong to classify all people aged over 65 as “old”. She argues true old age starts at 80-85. Before that, people could still be working and be consumers in the new so-called “silver economy”. “Society doesn’t yet understand what longevity is. We should look at how we can benefit from this population,” she adds.
Time for the policy thinkers in the SDP and people like Tay Kheng Soon to think more about issue. The PAP won’t change their mind about a Hard Truth.
The KPKBing about very draconian laws further restricting the space on the internet and social media is evidence, anti-PAP activists say, that the PAP govt is very authoritarian with very little democratic accountability. Very true: look at the area shade pink. Among developed “countries” only HK (Remember Goh Meng Seng thinks HK is paradise), is worse.
So what? Look at the area shaded pink in these two charts, and vote wisely and tactically.
Totful, caring or juz KS pushy parents want their children to more easily move up the economic ladder.
This is something that our constructive, nation-building media wouldn’t dare tell u about. Funnily neither does alt media (TRE excepted, if it republishes this piece).
The Great Gatsby curve illustrates the connection between concentration of wealth in one generation and the ability of those in the next generation to move up the economic ladder compared to their parent. Shows that in S’pore very difficult to move up the economic ladder. We are in same boat as UK, USA, France, Italy and Switzerland.
No wonder S’poreans migrate to Australia, NZ and Canada. They hope their children can be more mobile economically.
Equal Opportunity in S’pore? What equal opportunity?
They are no longer wanted or employable.
This TRE reader got it right
Over 40s being retrenched are common. The army also tell regulars to GTFO after they turned 40. Just observe those Hollywood stars – over 40 no more leading man or lady.
Sad.
Remember Goh Cock Chok Tong’s tots about building 5G leaders? This cock talk had me laughing because he (and his DPM, one Lee Hsien Loong) cocked up Dr Goh’s economic framework that took a lot from the Germans:
The Germans have a name for their unique economic framework: ordoliberalism. Its origins are perfectly legitimate – a response of Germany’s liberal elites to the breakdown of liberal democracy in 1933. It was born out of the observation that unfettered liberal systems are inherently unstable, and require rules and government intervention to sustain themselves. The job of the government was not to correct market failures but to set and enforce rules.
[…]
The ordoliberal world view is asymmetric. Current account surpluses are considered more acceptable than deficits. Since the rules are based on national law, ordoliberals do not care about their impact on the rest of the world. When they adopted the euro, the rest of the world suddenly did start to matter.
FT
As a very junior officer in the central bank, it was clear to me that Dr Goh tot
The job of the government was not to correct market failures but to set and enforce rules.
Cock Goh and Lee Jnr aided and abetted by people like Tharman (ang moh tua kees’ think the sun shines from his black ass) moved to a pseudo market economy where
Current account surpluses are considered more acceptable than deficits.
And where GLCs dominated the economy, sometimes wayanging against one another (think telcos).
To be fair, I think they were, and are, not cynically conning S’poreans. They really believed in their version of the mkt economy.
Coming back to Dr Goh, Dr Goh was really ordoliberal not socialist nor free market liberal. That was how he made S’pore great. The 2G, 3G and 4G leaders remain clueless on what made S’pore great.
[The folowing was added at 1.35pm]
As I wrote
For all their academic brilliance Ah Loong and team have not advanced beyond tinkering with the framework that Dr Goh Keng Swee, Hon Swee Sen and Albert Winsemius devised. Evolution is fine to a point. But surely the world has undergone revolutionary change. When they were constructing their model of serving MNCs as a path to grow the economy, serving MNCs was “neo-colonialism”. Today even Red China serves as as the MNCs’ factory.
Related posts
— Dr Goh’s HK counterpart had similar views on MRT and other major issues
— Why S’pore industrialised in the 60s
— SG50: Three cheers for Goh Keng Swee
But won’t.
Because it’ll go against one of LKY’s Hardest Truths: S’pore should not have supportive social systems and institutions thereby making it easier for people who don’t or won’t work hard (But do you want cybernuts living off yr money and dissing you and the govt for not giving them more money?) to fall through the cracks.
But seriously Hard Truths seem to have forgotten about those who can’t work hard because they are too sick, too old or have to care for others.
So we only 34th globally. But PAP govt will point out we are top dog in the neighbourhood. Bit like having a bungalow house surrounded by slums.
The UN’s Sustainable Development Solutions Network ranking of the happiest countries in the world
suggest that happy societies are those with supportive social systems and institutions that make it harder for people to fall through the cracks.
Why is Finland so happy? | March 2018
In March 2018 Finland was named the happiest country in the world by the UN’s Sustainable Development Solutions Network. Three Nordic cousins—Norway, Denmark and Iceland—took the next places. The UN report uses global polling data from Gallup to measure how pleased people feel with their lives, and tries to explain the differences in results using variables such as GDP per person, social support, healthy-life expectancy, freedom to make life choices, generosity, and freedom from corruption. Its results suggest that happy societies are those with supportive social systems and institutions that make it harder for people to fall through the cracks.
(Emphasis mine)
S’pore’s trade-reliant economy will see a slowdown in the next 12 months, according to a survey of economists by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. All 23 respondents cited intensifying trade friction as a risk to growth.
Economists … project that gross domestic product (GDP) growth could ease to 2.6% from an estimated 3.3% for 2018.
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-economy-five-things-watch-2019-014107270.html
Look at where that will place us in the 2019 sweep stakes: around where the better developed countries will be.
For that we pay the best global rates for ministers? Even the constructive, nation-building media don’t deny that S’pore’s ministers top the global league for ministers but say they deserve their salaries.
Really?
They would say that, wouldn’t they?
Look at the table and note that here holding costs (i.e. interest paid) for 5 yrs (assumes no profit from sale after 5 yrs) and fees payable (taxes, duties) very low compared to rest of the world bar a shithole of a city. The PAP govt treats private property investors better than they treat otters (TRE Cybernut says PAP has created paradise for otters not citizens)? $ means US$.
Waz there not to like about the PAP if u are an investor in private property?
Compare this to if u bot a resale HDB flat: Will resale flat owners still vote for PAP in next GE? and Will this resale flat buyer vote for PAP in next GE?
Remember Khaw saying this?
It was a very different era. Finance was tight, so we really had to scrutinise every dollar of spending.
The government of the day thought very hard if we could really afford an MRT line. It took months to think through and debate through this major strategic decision.
It was not easy. Some of you who are younger might not remember.
But I remember, as a civil servant, the big debate which was televised on the options – an all-bus system or an MRT system.
There were proponents for the MRT, as a city without MRT is almost impossible. But there were others who were extremely worried whether we can really afford it.
So sometimes today we spend money as if money comes easily. We forget that it was not too long ago. So when there are people who criticise the North-South and East-West Lines on why we did not do this and that, we were simply short of cash.
http://www.todayonline.com/singapore/comparing-singapores-newest-and-oldest-mrt-lines
He left out the elephant in the room: Dr Goh Keng Swee. He wasn’t convinced that an MRT would be cost effective. Hence the scrutiny the project underwent, even after the cabinet (sans Goh) had agreed to build it.
A contemporary of his, Sir John Cowperthwaite, HK’s financial secretary (17 April 1961 – 30 June 1971) had earlier opposed the building of the MRT system in HK, citing the cost: despite the traffic jams in the streets. Construction only began after he retired.
Here’s more on Sir John Cowperthwaite, who came to HK as a British civil servant in 1945. He should be interesting to S’poreans because he had views, some like that of Dr Goh, some unlike, on how to have a prosperous, thriving economy in a small state.
Like Dr Goh, he was for
Low taxes, lax employment laws, absence of government debt, and free trade are all pillars of the Hong Kong experience of economic development.
And
No deficit government financing, which could merely push costs to a future generation and make the territory vulnerable to financial upheaval.
[…]
Public housing would be funded, but only for tiny flats; reservoirs would be built, but users would be charged.
[…]
Requests by industry for subsidies were routinely rejected.
Architect of Prosperity: Sir John Cowperthwaite and the Making of Hong Kong
Sounds like a PAPpy?
But throughout the 1960s, Cowperthwaite refused to implement free universal primary education, contributing to the relatively high illiteracy rate among today’s older generation in HK.
And he really believed in the importance of the private sector, unlike the PAP (not excluding Dr Goh) who talked the talk of the importance but the private sector, but who made sure GLCs dominate the local economy.
“I myself tend to mistrust the judgment of anyone not involved in the actual process of risk-taking.” This faith was rewarded. As industries such as cotton spinning, enamelware and wigs declined and Cowperthwaite declined to offer assistance, businesses shifted their attention to promising areas such as toy and electronics production, and then finance. Migrants found work in the expanding industries, becoming a cog in a productive engine rather than merely a cost.
(Economist review)
But he allowed private sector cartels to continue to dominate the HK economy. In his time, it was the Hongs (Jardines, Swire and other ang moh Hongs) and the big banks (HSBC and StanChart). A tradition continued today with local property cos controlling the property mkt (no massive affordable public housing), and Cheung Kong, Jardines and Swire having a big share of the retail mkt, and HSBC and Bank of China dominating the finance sector.
Those were my tots when I read in the construction, nation-building CNA
Stop thinking of people in terms of social class or income: Indranee Rajah
What can Singaporeans do to help bridge the gap between social classes? For Minister in the Prime Minister’s Office Indranee Rajah, the answer is very simple: Think of people as people.
She was responding to a question from a participant at a dialogue and closed-door screening of the Channel NewsAsia documentary “Regardless of Class” on Monday (Oct 29). The documentary explores the class divide in Singapore and how it affects society.
Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/stop-thinking-of-people-in-terms-of-social-class-or-income-10876762
I mean who was the cock that tried to sabo the PAP govt when it was trying to showcase why S’poreans should be happy with the PAP by saying around the time of the National Day celebrations
that those in the private sector earning less than $1m are “very mediocre people”. And that the PAP only chose ministers from the private sector if they were earning $1m or more.
Anyone using money to distinguish between “mediocre” and “not mediocre” people is thinking in terms “of people in terms of social class or income”.
Or is she trying to be a stand-up comic, like Tharman?
Tharman trying to tell jokes
— Tharman trying to tell jokes again?
— Property: Tharman trying to crack jokes again
—
In Hard Truth why PAP wins and wins I wrote about goodies for oldies from the PAP govt as its way of of bribing making sure that the vast majority of the Pioneer and Merdeka Generations continue voting for the PAP. As far as I’m concerned, we got the money for this and more, a lot more. Think of the buget surpluses: How we fund our SWFs
But if the cybernuts are right that our reserves have been lost, implying that the income from our reserves that goes into the Budget is fake $, then we are in trouble.
After all over the last 10 years, Singapore’s net investment returns (NIR) contribution (NIRC) to the Budget has more than doubled from S$7 billion in FY2009 to an estimated S$15.9 billion in FY2018.
Waz this NIRC and NIR BS?
NIRC consists of 50 per cent of the Net Investment Returns (NIR) on the net assets invested by GIC, the Monetary Authority of Singapore and Temasek Holdings and 50 per cent of the Net Investment Income (NII) derived from past reserves from the remaining assets.
In other words, we spend 50 per cent of the estimated gains from investment, and put the remaining 50 per cent back into the reserves to preserve its growth for future use.
Associate Professor Randolph Tan is Director of the Centre for Applied Research at the Singapore University of Social Services, and a Nominated Member of Parliament.
The money finally runs out because of too many bribes goodies for voters to keep them voting for the PAP. So if there’s really no money because the reserves are squandered as alleged by Phillip Ang (CPF class action: Phillip Ang’s “reply’ to fellow cybernut) and other cybernuts, then S’pore under the PAP will become like UK and Venezuela.
In the UK
‘Everything is just stretched to its limit’
“There are more people requiring services,” says Simon. “We’re an ageing population and there are more children in schools. It’s alright them saying they’re putting more money in, but per individual it doesn’t equate.”
Like many locals, the men are worried about Scarborough Hospital, which is part of York Teaching Hospital NHS Foundation Trust. It is facing a reorganisation and locals fear departments could be closed in their town.
And in Venezuela
From schoolteacher to cleaner
Maria Eugenia Carrillo was enthusiastic about the system of free schooling introduced by Hugo Chávez in the early 2000s. But increasing pressure by her bosses to include political content in lessons bothered her. And then there was the poverty.
“I saw my children sick and hungry, their parents looking for food among the rubbish and diseases like measles running rampant through the school,” she says.
“When parents came to pick up their children they stopped asking ‘what did you learn today?’ and asked instead: ‘What did you eat today?'”
Image caption “I always dreamed of living and dying in Venezuela.”The 52-year-old teacher says that the political pressure caused her so much stress that her fibromyalgia became more acute – until she decided she had to leave Venezuela, flying to Madrid in October 2017.
Without official papers, she has no chance of working as a teacher, and is cleaning homes for cash.
“I always dreamed of living and dying in Venezuela,” she says. “I even had a beach house until a Chavista [a supporter of Venezuela’s government] took a shine to it and moved in. I couldn’t do anything. I was paralysed by the fear of being arrested.”
And
The irony of Spain and Venezuela’s reversal in fortunes is not lost on Cándido Soengas, who escaped poverty and dictatorship in 1950s Spain by crossing the Atlantic.
Now, he has been forced to return to Spain, as living conditions unravelled in the Venezuelan capital.
“I never expected to come back,” 87-year-old Mr Soengas says in the garden of his Madrid retirement home, reminiscing on the life he and his late wife made for themselves in Caracas.
“I was happy in Venezuela. There were always people about to lend me a hand and when I brought my children up, we wanted for nothing.”
“They were good times.”
“They were good times,” hopefully I won’t say this 25 yrs from now when I’m his age.
(Or “Why oldies are getting more goodies” or “You massage my back, and I scratch yrs”)
The Merdeka generation are getting goodies, juz like the Pioner Generation. Both generations in their prime have given the PAP solid support (over 60% of the popular vote).
PAP is juz rewarding voters who keep it in power
Not only that, but as S’poreans are living longer, keeping the Merdeka generation (and the balance of the Pioneer Generation) contented with the PAP govt means that the PAP’s hegemony can last at another 20 yrs.
The average Singaporean can expect to live 85.4 years in 2040, up 2.1 years from the average of 83.3 years in 2016, according to a new study by a global health research organisation.
Singapore is expected to maintain its third-place ranking in average life expectancy in 2040, if recent health trends continue.
By then, Spaniards are expected to live the longest — an average of 85.8 years — pipping the Japanese, who are expected to live an average of 85.7 years.
Add to that having people like Mad Dog, Lim Tean and Meng Seng as opponents and the PAP will rule forever and a day.
Further to The Hard Truth about hawker food
Will S’poreans still love (and eat) our hawker food if it’s no longer cheap because hawkers are paid more?
What if the Hard Truth is that they (especially the anti_PAP cybernuts from TRE love the food because hawkers are exploited in the making and selling of the food?
(My musings)
Seriously, here’s what doctor turned fatcat rentier said responding to the above link
Depends how serious govt views social impact of cooked / prepared food.
S’pore society today relies a lot more on buying prepared food as compared to 2 or even just 1 generation ago.
If govt treats having cheap prepared food as important as public healthcare, then there would need to be overt rent & price controls. No 2 ways about it.
The economic & social conditions that pushed people into hawking in the olden days is completely different from the economic, social & corporate realities today.
His solution to keep food cheap?
Just like foodcourt stalls, govt will eventually need to allow 3rd world foreigners (who are willing to accept much lower wages) to operate hawker centre stalls.
Er tot PRC reds already doing this illegally and using dog meat (from killed strays) to make char siew?
In Ang mohs told secret of why PAP wins and wins, I quoted our London ambassador on why the PAP thinks it wins and win.
She also wrote
The alternative—a constant merry-go-round of contending parties—does not necessarily produce better outcomes. Politicians fail to keep the promises they make, the people become disillusioned, and eventually lose faith in democracy. Witness the low voter-turnouts in many Western democracies.
FOO CHI HSIA
Doesn’t this sound as though she’s saying that those of us (self included) who want a viable opposition so that we can have a system whereby power can change hands in a GE are S’poreans who do not wish S’pore well?
Er,tot civil servants cannot engage in politics? And whatever happened to a neutral that our ministers and senior civil servants talk and boast about? They talking cock meh?
Seriously, our ang moh tua kees are forever bitching that civil service is not neutral.
But why should it be neutral?
Given that the PAP has ruled S’pore since 1959 (and first had the voters’ mandate in 1957), how can they expect the civil service to be neutral as it’s expected to be in the Westminster system? They don’t know their UK politcal history.
The UK (where of the Westminster model originated) has had two recent periods where one party ruled for a long period: 1979 — 1997 (Tories) and 1997 — 2010 (Labour). During both periods, the neutrality of the civil service was called in question by serious, fair-minded people, not the usual loonies and fruitcakes i.e. the British version of our cybernuts The complaint made by retired senior servants among others was that civil service was being co-opted by the governing party during both periods: ministers made sure the “right” civil servants were promoted.
Since the PAP has had repeatedly won the mandate (by wide margins) to push around and bully S’poreans, how can the civil service here not not be neutral ? Voters have made the choice: the PAP way or the highway.
And given that we are defacto one-party state, (“Why CCP’s fears are PAP’s fears”: Keeping power in a one-party state and Would this happen in a one-party state?) how can any sane, rational voter expect a neutral civil service here?
Ending on the theme of a one-party state, here’s two parting tots to ponder
Communist party theorists have long railed against the danger of “peaceful evolution”, in which Communist rule is slowly undone as democratic ideals, from civil society to the rule of law, seep in through the back door.
FT
Same here?
Having read https://www.todayonline.com/big-read/big-read-grumbling-and-rumbling-social-enterprise-hawker-centres-whats-rub while there seems to be some hanky hanky about the way social enterprise hawker centres are run, the bottom line is that cheap hawker food is an unreasonable demand if the PAP govt is not willing to do something about rentals.
And if S’poreans don’t force the govt to rethink the issue of rentals, then Fishball Story’s Mr Ng is right to say
that Singaporeans should not continue to think that hawker food must be kept at traditionally low prices. When prices increase, hawkers can enjoy better margins and be more motivated to sustain their career “if they see good returns for their hard work”.
“We can start by paying a little more. If you want cheap food, I’ll give you budget-quality food. If you want good, proper food, expect to pay more.”
With the Government putting the pressure on hawkers to keep their food prices down, “there is no way hawkers can survive in the long run”, he added.
S’poreans have to realise that if rents are high, they got to Pay and Pay, juz like for ministers’ salaries, COEs etc.
Phew that was a quick sharp retracement after a very sharp spik: Tua kee traders take opposing views on price of oil. The PAP govt must be relieved oil is now trading around US$82 (minutes ago) than above US$86 (middle of last week).
A US$ oil price of closer to US$100 will not only make Tun M (M’sia exports oil) more willingly to cut off our water supply but will pose problems for an early GE in late 2019 esp with the promised rise in GST(See below for GST related posts) after GE: Akan datang: GE in late 2019
According to Citi’s Johanna Chua, Asian countries suffer the most when oil prices rise because, aside from Malaysia, most are net oil importers. Singapore runs a sizable 6.5% oil and gas deficit, followed closely by Pakistan, Thailand, Sri Lanka and Taiwan. Indonesia and Vietnam manage slightly smaller deficits of roughly 1%.
So many of these economies see the largest inflation swings when oil prices rise. Chua’s chart ranking the sensitivity regionally over the past six years. See where we stand.
The ** explained that the spike in inflation here is caused by some one-off stats adjustment of data base. So not really comparable to other countries. But try telling that to cybernuts like Oxygen or Phillip Ang.
But rational readers should get the message. Voters really get hurt by oil price rises. And the promised GST price increase is not going to impress the 10 points of voters that voted for the PAP in last GE, bring the total votes for the PAP to 70%: a great result for the PM and the PAP after the failure of only 60% in 2011.
GST-related posts
GST rise: Anti-PAP activists should take note
Countering PAP’s BS that taxes must go up
Can’t stop laughing at our ungrateful, envious cybernuts. In their KBKBing that S’pore is ranked below Bangladesh, Namibia, Costa Rica, Guyana, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Kosovo and Palestine, they come across to the 35% swing voters as saying that these countries are better places to live in vis-a-vis S’pore.
Know any cybernut wanting to move out of their rented two-room HDB flat and move to Bangladesh, Namibia, Costa Rica, Guyana, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Kosovo and Palestine? I doubt any exist. They know life is better here. They juz behaving like ex-local MSM journalists who bite the hand that once fed them. They are worse because because cybernuts still get fed.
I agree with Calvin Cheng. I know, I know, it’s getting to be a habit ( When being a minister turns from a calling into a job for life) . But what can I say except that he seems to have mellowed.)
Singapore ranks below countries such as Bangladesh, Namibia, Costa Rica, Guyana, Moldova, Kazakhstan and even Kosovo and Palestine.
Ask yourselves if any Singaporeans, no matter how relatively poor, would rather live in those countries.
This highlights the sometimes shrill obsession with inequality, rather than focusing on absolute standards of living. Both are important, but I would argue that absolute standards of living are far more important. We should make sure our poor and even our average Singaporeans have good standards of living, regardless how they compare to rich Singaporeans.
We must be careful to keep our priorities right and balanced, and not give in to the politics of envy that has rend many Western societies apart in recent years.
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When I said Calvin Cheng was a dickhead
Riposte to Calvin Cheng’s defence of UA
Calvin, Amos & other cyber-vermin: the global perspective
Why MLC has to talk about Calvin
Coming back to the report and our cybernuts. Here’s another reasoned perspective on the Oxfam report,
There is a need “to have a better conversation about inequality” in Singapore, he added. “But it cannot be premised on research that is not well-suited for the challenges we face in Singapore, and ultimately, doesn’t produce a measure that correlates well with the living reality of Singaporeans, who know that inequality is a problem here, but is not characterised by the poverty and absolute deprivation seen in many countries of similar ‘rank’.””
Walter Theseira, academic, NMP
But at high level. “Affordable public housing”, pay and pay for govt services, COEs got us to be like this? How to afford 5Cs? Why many PAP voters are ready to be flipped
After I wrote Akan datang here: A six-figure salary is ‘low income’ I remembered an observation that I kept forgetting to blog on. And I promptly forgot about it until yesterday after I wrote Why anti-PAP Save S’pore Fund won’t work.
I keep getting the sense from talking to young S’poreans and their parents and grandparents that more and more young S’poreans are asking out loud: “Can I get a job that will actually pay me enough to live on (let alone be able to have a family someday)?”
And their parents and grandparents fear that their children’s (or grandchildren’s) lives will not be better and more prosperous than their own: it’ll be worse, a lot worse. Many moons ago, one P (for Politician) Ravi (Remember him?) told me that his fear for his children’s future led him to stray from the narrow, white road of Hard Truths, even though he, his siblings and his mum had benefited from the PAP govt policies: the policies, combined with their efforts and a bit of luck, took them out from poverty. But he didn’t think the PAP’ govt’s policies will ensure that his children’s lives will be better and more prosperous than his own.
The Singapore Dream of the 5Cs of condominiums, cars, country clubs, cash and credit cards are no more. Most young S’poreans know they can’t afford condominiums, cars and country clubs, and they’ll be always short of cash (all in CPF leh they’ll moan). And they know that maxing out on their credit cards is a sure way to bankruptcy: PAP govt tot them to count.
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NUS survey bears out my observation
Out of 25 aspects about living in the country, Singaporeans ranked the affordability of cars as being the least satisfied with, followed by the affordability of properties, cost of living, ratio of locals to foreigners, and affordability of healthcare.
“Increasingly (over the years), they are upset about the affordability of cars and properties, so you can surmise from there that they are concerned with the issue,” said Tan.
So it’s not surprising that the young have different aspirations: an observation made by Mr Masagos Zulkifli, the Minister in charge of Muslim Affairs. The young are realistic of the possibilities of life under the PAP govt: only the rich and the anointed ones get richer, the rest pay and pay. Their parents and grandparents are also realistic about the young’s prospects.
The support for Dr Tan Cheng Bock in PE 2011 and his enduring popularity (despite the PAP’s increase of the popular vote in GE 2015 to 70% from 60%) shows that there are unhappy PAP voters out there waiting to be tapped: Why the PAP fears Dr Tan Cheng Bock.
Therein lies the opportunity for the Oppo.
But then the PAP can rely on the likes of Lim Tean: A disgraceful chamber of horrors and Silence of Goh Meng Seng (self-proclaimed Indian chiefs with no Indians behind them) to keep S’poreans fearful and contemptuous of a liberal democratic alternative to one-party rule.
With enemies like these two, how can the PAP ever lose? Sad.
Let’s hope they take the hints from Dr Tan Cheng Bock:
[S]ome may also need to stand down and serve from the backroom if it is for the good of the country.
…
I believe that the men and women I met yesterday, were more than willing to make way for better men and women who would stand in their place. They have guts. They have put themselves out there.
Somehow I don’t think they will. What do you think?
In response to PAP’s cock-ups since the 1980s where I wrote:
one is left wondering why the Oppo parties couldn’t and can’t (WP is expected to lose Aljunied in next GE) make a more serious dent in the PAP’s popularity with 60- 70% of the voters? Only Tan Cheng Bock (ex-PAPpy) can.
Is it repression and fear?
Or is the PAP juz lucky what with the quality of Oppo leaders …?
the retired NUS professor who had listed the PAP’s cock-ups since the 80s, I quoted, answered
[T]he leninist government model assumes a network of best talents that are attracted by a good ruling ideology and by distribution of material rewards from national resources controlled by the group – so by definition, opposition parties are left with inferior talent and lack resources to effectively compete; elections are meant to be “exams” in which citizens give the government a “mark” – a low mark leads it to improve itself through genuine effort, not intimidation, bribery, propaganda; you can contrast the situation in neighbouring countries to see that failure to observe these rules eventually leads to breakdown
I think he’s right. Remember our Harry liked to compare the PAP’s system of choosing leaders to the Roman Catholic church’s method of choosing leaders: cardinals elect a pope who in turn appoints the cardinals. And the pope like the church is always right. Sounds like PAP?
He went on to make a more telling observation
I also point out that the various past “blunders” I discussed are already baked into the system, and there is no simple way to reverse them; whoever currently running the country can only take the situation as it exists and work from there onwards
Harry and the rest of the Old Guard, contrary to the belief of many S’poreans, therefore bear responsibility for the problems we now face. It’s not all the fault of their successors, even if they are not as good as the Old Guard
It’s already happening in parts of the US
A family getting by on $117,400 (£87,970) in one US city can now be considered ‘low income’, according to government figures. How can that be the case?
That workers with six-figure salaries could be considered “poor” is something that might surprise many people.
But taking into account income and housing costs that is the reality for some families – who may be eligible for housing assistance – according to a recent report from the US Department of Housing and Urban Development.
In San Francisco and nearby San Mateo and Marin Counties it said $117,400 for a family of four was “low income”, while $73,300 (£54,900) was “very low income” – the highest figures anywhere in the country.
So don’t be surprise if those couples here on a combined low six-figure salary start thinking of themselves as hard done by the PAP administration, despite the low levels (“peanuts”) of income tax and GST.
Remember the Singapore Dream of the 5Cs of condominiums, cars, country clubs, cash and credit cards? How many S’poreans can realistic afford condominiums, cars, country clubs and still have cash? Credit cards are now nothing but bait to get consumers to over spend so that banks can charge them usurious eates
A NUS survey points out
Out of 25 aspects about living in the country, Singaporeans ranked the affordability of cars as being the least satisfied with, followed by the affordability of properties, cost of living, ratio of locals to foreigners, and affordability of healthcare.
“Increasingly (over the years), they are upset about the affordability of cars and properties, so you can surmise from there that they are concerned with the issue,” said Tan.
Related posts
S’poreans unhappy enough to make mad Dog PM?
Will people like Mr Ang and his family ever vote for Oppo?
In Is PAP in “decline and disintegration”? I wrote that PAP was in stagnation phase that began in 1990
A regular reader, a retired NUS professor lists the things the PAP got wrong since the 1984.
[S]everal major PAP blunders started in 1984 during the election campaign of that year
1. elected president: LKY had already reached 60 by that year, and this was then the public sector retirement age; so he had to face the question whether he was stepping down; the thinking at the time was to move to the presidency – under the then constitution, parliament would decide; he being who he is, the position would not be merely ceremonial, but it must be his legal background that made him uncomfortable, and a decision was made to enhance the position; the resulting controversy led to his undertaking not to be the first elected president, Goh Chok Tong’s decision to invent the post of Senior Minister to keep LKY in the cabinet, the elected president Ong Teng Chong’s conflict with cabinet, regular embarrassment about a 3-men committee rejecting candidates causing a no contest, etc
LKY could have just retired in 1990, started a newspaper column (modern idea would be blog), a charity/research foundation, a senate, and he would have remained the most influential person in the country, taking into consideration his son and his 2nd cousin were both in cabinet; it was quite unnecessary for him to feel insecure about his own place in singapore society even if he held no elected office; if he had been a blogger posting articles daily, every important person in singapore, the cabinet ministers especially, would have eagerly read them as soon as they were posted
2. HDB asset enhancement: during the campaign LKY got annoyed by opposition claiming “your HDB apartmen[t] is on 99-year lease; you dont really own it”, and announced “HDB will stop building in opposition districts”; at the time I actually did not understand why that should cause anyone to worry; but the Northeast MRT line provided part of the explanation – no population increase, no new infrastructure; the Mathias Yao–Chee Soon Juan Straits Times Forum series of letters provided some more – poor infrastructure, lower HDB value; with HDB apartments traded on the open market (previous owners are allowed to go back and buy a new apartment from HDB after 5 years).. Soon Permanent Residents, who are not entitled to buy from HDB, buying on the open market caused the HDB asset values to rise beyond affordability
3. CPF: with people living longer, the idea of delaying CPF money return was raised in 1984 and initial reaction was negative; again LKY was annoyed; soon the idea of minimum sum was adopted, later compulsory annuity, which would have been workable if most people can still get a substantial part out in cash at 55; with the weak salary increases in the past decade or so (partly because of foreign labour, e.g., IT used to have highest paid new graduates, before the industry bought in PRCs and Indians) and low interest rate, more and more people found themselves not meeting the minimum sum requirement, and every increase in minimum sum value makes more people angry
2011
[M]uch of PAP’s recent electoral adversity was self inflicted; the major examples I recall
1. James Gomez case 2006: LKY, Wong Kan Seng and George Yeo spent far too much time talking about a minor issue (LHL and GCT both kept quiet – they could afford to); the Aljunied voters punished George Yeo, and WP identified the electorate as vulnerable, put effort into the ground work and won it decisively in 2011
2. Tin Pei Lin case 2011: it was sound strategy to find some younger, especially female, faces, but the party should have made the effort to find someone with a track record as a political operator in her own right, not just a polished presenter with management consultancy experience recommended by a personal connection; I also believe if they introduced her at the end, after people have grown bored with all those familiar CVs of civil servants, generals, professionals, executives, etc, she might have enjoyed a better reception, so they botched the presentation in addition to selection
3. Joo Chiat case 2011: it was also sound strategy to replace old by young, but Charles Chong is older than Chen Soo Sen so the change could not be justified on that ground; Chen also enjoyed certain personal support which did not readily transfer via party loyalty; Workers Party ended with nearly 50%
4. Hougang case 2012: Teo Chee Hean dwelt far too long on Yaw Shin Leong’s personal and business failings, which Yaw’s former supporters preferred not to be reminded of, whereas upbeat talks about the wonderful things PAP would do for Hougang if elected, might have more fully exploited the unexpected opportunity; after the Hougang moralizing, the Palmer case was a particularly hard blow – PAP candidates are like anyone else
[W]hether the party would learn from these mistakes, and whether it would make new ones in 2016, is of course to be seen; given the resources available; it certainly has the potential of doing much better
Looking at the above, one is left wondering why the Oppo parties couldn’t and can’t (WP is expected to lose Aljunied in next GE) make a more serious dent in the PAP’s popularity with 60- 70% of the voters? Only Tan Cheng Bock (ex-PAPpy) can.
Is it repression and fear?
Or is the PAP juz lucky what with the quality of Oppo leaders: clowns like Lim Tean (Lim Tean: A disgraceful chamber of horrors), Goh Meng Seng (Silence of Goh Meng Seng) and Pritam Singh (WP distributing unsafe food (pass expiry date) and getting financial advice of cybernut resulting in having to take down misleading video after Lawrence Wong kicked Bayee’s ass)?
Email yr answers pls.
NIMBYism is a problem in developed countries bar S’pore.
A really bad example of “Not In My Backyard” is Heathrow’s expansion. They’ve been talking about it since the 70s (I first used that airport in 1976). UK’s parliament has finally decided to let Heathrow build a third runaway.The majority of 296 for third runway is welcomed by business and deplored by locals: court challenges are expected.
Here’s someone complaining to the FT about the decision
What utter tripe. Of course the most important question is whether the runway is “needed”, and for this Country, in this Century; the answer is no. There is little to be gained environmentally or financially for the Citizens of the UK. BAA – yes. Transit passengers- yes. BA- yes. Travel operators- yes. But for tax payers, Children who breathe the air, and UK PLC as a whole, who will suffer ever poorer traffic delays and travel costs. Nope. It’s a scam. Like The Privatised Utilities, and the whole Brexit fiasco. Heathrow expansion is a bl33dy scam.
NIMBYism is kept in check in S’pore not because 70% of S’poreans are constructive and nation building, putting the needs of S’pore (as defined by the PAP) before self, but because S’pore is a one-party authoritarian state.
Here in Welfarism the PAP way I gave an example (share of taxes paid) that the PAP did welfare: corporates get welfare, not the people
Here’s another: the new requirement that Integrated Shield Plans (IPs) with riders have a co-payment portion of at least 5%.
When the PAP introduced this welfare scheme for insurers, a minister talked about “buffet syndrome” of policyholders.
Well the insurers should have allowed to wallow in their own urine and shit.
The problem was self-created. The “free” riders were created to increase their profits, or so they tot. Now that it was not working for them, the PAPpies should not be riding to their rescue. They should simply stop marketing the products. And start increasing the premiums for existing holders to reflect previous pricing mistakes.
But to be fair to the corporate loving PAP govt: the change has not mandated any change for the 1.1m people who already have full riders for their Integrated Shield Plans (IPs) – which means they still will pay nothing for hospital bills.
But the freeloaders and scroungers that are the insurance industry will not stop lobbying for this to change. They had wanted the co-sharing to apply to the existing contract, or so Secret Squirrel and Morroco Mole tell me.
But the PAP govt didn’t want another public row what with its plans to raise GST after the next GE.
[Update at 5.25pm: Trumpets please.]
My prediction that GST increase would be announced but delayed is correct: Heng announced GST increase of 2% from 7% to 9% to “fund recurring government expenses”. Increase will take place between 2021 and 2025 in a progressive manner. Handouts of GST vouchers will be made permanent once the increase is put in place.]
“Thus has it always been, thus shall it ever be”.
The FT talking about how Japanese mgt do earnings guidance
[T]he pattern is too consistent for comfort, often strays into the deliberately deceptive, and is carried out as part of a habit of systemic conservatism*
reminds me of our Budget’s forecast of expenditures and revenues in the coming year. Consistently expenditures will be found to have been overestimated, and revenues underestimated when the next Budget comes around the following year.
The result?
Economists expect bumper surplus for 2017
Part of headline from today’s ST. ST went on to gush
United Overseas Bank economist Francis Tan expects an overall surplus of $3.1 billion for FY2017, compared with the official initial estimate of $1.91 billion. UOB’s econometric model projects that the Government may see $2 billion more in revenue than expected, due mainly to higher corporate income tax receipts and stamp duties.
Mr Tan expects corporate income tax revenue to hit $14.8 billion, higher than the official estimate of $13.6 billion. If so, corporate income tax would regain its place as the largest contributor to revenue, ahead of the projected $14.11 billion net investment returns (NIR) contribution.
“Thus has it always been, thus shall it ever be” as the saying goes.
So remember that expenditures will be overestimated, and revenues understimated when we are told in the Budget statement that GST has to be raised because expenditure is rising for welfare and other goodies.
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So why is there is surplus still?
Between FY2007 and FY2016, Singapore’s revenue has grown from S$43 billion to S$83 billion, based on revised FY2016 estimates. Over the same period, however, government expenditure has more than doubled from S$33 billion to S$71 billion.
Constructive, nation-building Today
http://www.todayonline.com/singapore/pressures-main-revenue-sources-prompt-govt-look-ways-grow-pie
And Err what about using more from income from reserves** and designating land sales as revenue, not chips for Ho Ching and GIC?)
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Whatever, my bet is that there’ll be an announcement of a GST increase of 2 % but that the increase will be deferred so that Tharman’s promise will be kept
To be fair to PM Lee, both the MOF and he have clarified that consistent with DPM Tharmans 2015 remarks, we do not have to raise taxes before the end of the decade.
So there’s really no need to get our fiscal knickers into a twist about GST or income tax increases till after the next GE folks..
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*”Earnings guidance in markets everywhere is often a victim of the management instinct to lowball first so as to triumph later with an overshoot. In Japan, though, the pattern is too consistent for comfort, often strays into the deliberately deceptive, and is carried out as part of a habit of systemic conservatism. CEOs are not financially incentivised to reach for the stars, so opt for comfortable survival meeting targets they know are achievable.”
FT
**Long quote from https://www.theedgesingapore.com/how-will-singapore-fund-its-rising-budget-0
The reserve option
One other way of funding soaring spending on healthcare and social spending is to tap reserves built up over past decades. “If the government feels that, based on current revenue projections, it is not able to fund increased social spending and is looking for new sources of revenue, then its first consideration should be whether reserves should be tapped,” says Donald Low, associate dean at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy.
In a chapter in a book he co-authored, Hard Choices, published in 2014, Low argues that it is the baby boom generation — the group of people now entering or in retirement and at whom increased healthcare and social spending is targeted — that contributed the most to the accumulation of national reserves. “A significant part of our reserves is the result of fiscal surpluses generated in the 1980s and 1990s — the period when the baby boom generation was most economically productive,” he wrote. “Now that the generation that contributed the most to our reserves is entering retirement, it is only fair from an intergenerational perspective that the state reverses part of that transfer.
“To impose the fiscal burden of looking after the needs of the baby boomers onto subsequent generations in the form of higher taxes while continuing to accumulate reserves is not only unequitable but also inefficient… because continuing with a strategy of growing our reserves regardless of context implies a negative discount rate — that is, we favour the interests of a future generation more than those of the current generation… which has immediate needs.”
Singapore has, in fact, been tapping more of the investment returns of its reserves in recent years. In FY2016, Temasek Holdings was included under the so-called Net Investment Returns framework, which allows the government to spend up to 50% of its expected long-term returns. That year, NIR Contribution amounted to $14.37 billion and helped turn a $5.59 billion basic deficit to an overall surplus of $5.18 billion. The NIRC was the single largest contributor to the government coffers in both FY2016 and FY2017.
The NIR framework was implemented in 2009 to include expected long-term real returns on the government’s net assets managed by GIC and the Monetary Authority of Singapore. It was a major change from the previous Net Investment Income framework, under which the government could only spend investment income comprising dividends and interest.
Yet, should Singapore not be careful about using its reserves to fund the Budget? Should we not hold on to it for that proverbial rainy day? “But isn’t it the case that future generations are likely to be richer, for one, and, with [total fertility rate] at 1.2, the future generation is going to be a smaller generation [too]?” Low retorts. “So, we’re saving for a future generation that’s likely to be richer and almost certainly a smaller cohort than the baby boom generation. That seems like a regressive transfer of resources.”
He adds, “I think we have a social obligation to reduce inequality. In Singapore’s context, given that the baby boom generation helped to accumulate a large part of our reserves, one way of reducing inequality would be to tap the reserves to fund their needs. Another would be to introduce or increase existing wealth taxes.”
Still, other analysts do not expect the government to make more changes to the NIR framework, at least for now. “I think it’s good policy to use the good times to save up for the future,” says Wan.
A doctor turned fat cat investor responded to Jialat for PAP where I reported a property saleman (OK, OK, he’s title is “research director”) as saying “From the ground, homes with leases of less than 60 years took longer to sell, and at a much lower price …”. (Background reading for those who have not followed the problem with HDB leases of less than 60 years: HDB flats: 35 is a dangerous age)
He wrote
Since 2016/2017 HDB flats older than 39 years have seen a “cliff drop” in prices due to:
(1) Reduction of CPF quantum that can be used for properties with less than 60 yrs lease;
(2) Age of buyer plus remaining lease must be >= 80.In many mature estates undergoing SERS activities, the price of 40+ year old flats are having 35% discounts against nearby brand new “subsidized” BTO flats. Even with marketing efforts extolling the “higher chance” of SERS for those older flats, buyers are not buying it.
This mini cliff drop has been exacerbated since LW [Lawrence Wong] did an about turn against Old Fart’s & Woody’s asset enhancement propaganda.
Currently majority of HDB flats are still within 25-38 yrs old. The above problem will get worse over the next 10-15 years.
This gives PAPies another 2 terms at least to continue milking Sinkies.
Assuming the next general election is in 2019, this means the PAP will lose power or its two-thirds parly majority in 2029 or thereabouts. Mad Dog will then be 67 and Dr Paul will be about 65. If Mad Dog becomes PM jialat. If Dr Paul becomes PM, let the good times roll.
So if SDP is still headed by Mad Dog as is most likely because he’ll knife Dr Paul in the back to ensure that he’ll rule the SDP, I’ll be forced to vote PAP for the good of S’pore. So I hope he steps down soon.
Neither does ST nor any other constructive, nation-building publication or channel tell us what makes a country stable, safe, fair, providing its citizens with a good quality of life.
But first. Did you know thatWorld Economic Forum ranks S’pore 55th out of 144 countries in the Global Gender Gap report? No wonder the wimmin with hairy armpits at AWARE are always anti-PAP.
Sorry, coming back to the title
If you’re looking for what makes a country great, it seems, don’t look at its GDP or unemployment rate. Look at its commitment to its citizens – and how long it’s stuck to that commitment for.
http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20180111-how-can-you-measure-what-makes-a-country-great
The BBC article says
So what can make for these strong underpinnings – the kind that help make a country stable, safe, fair and provide its citizens with a good quality of life?
The main factors seem to be two. Whether it’s social progress or overall quality of governance that a country is after, the important things seem to be the level of commitment to those institutions… and the amount of time it’s had them.
“We measure outcomes, not inputs: you can’t change your social progress just by changing the law or spending a bit of money. So a long-term commitment to social progress seems to be one factor” of success, Green says.
Similarly, Botero points out, countries that have developed robust government institutions over a long period of time – like the US or UK – have been in less danger of losing those protections.
Local historian Loh Kah Seng posts articles on Facebook about the industrialisation of S’pore. Here’s one piece that I tot would interest because it shows the link then betweewn GDP growth and how it benefited the ordinary S’porean:
The main reason why Singapore pursued rapid industrialisation after the Second World War was not that the existing economy, based on the entrepot trade, was doing badly.
It was rather the high population growth rate, as increasingly people settled down in Singapore instead of returning to their home countries.
In the 1930s, more Chinese women entered Singapore and formed families. Just before war broke out, the Deputy Controller of Chinese Labour reported ‘swarms of Chinese children in their teens, mostly local born, and still more who have not yet reached their teens’.
This trend increased near the end of the Japanese Occupation, when multiple children were born, who became known as the postwar ‘baby boomers’.
In 1961, Singapore had a population of 1.6 million. The growth rate between 1947 and 1957 was 4.5% per annum – the highest in the world – while the size of a nuclear family in was 5.4 persons in 1957 and 5.6 in 1970.
Goh Keng Swee’s study of low-income households in 1956 found that a fifth of the households lived in poverty, with a monthly income under the minimum of $102.
High population growth created impending problems of employment and dependency. Under the entrepot economy, many of the growing children and teens would likely be unemployed or underemployed. Furthermore the entrepot trade was unlikely to grow. A youthful two thirds of the population would have to rely on the work of a third.
Labour-intensive industries, on the other hand, would absorb many more people. The aim of the State of Singapore Development Plan for 1961-1964 was to increase the number of jobs for young people entering the workforce each year.
When TRE republished this piece of mine about what called Hernando de Soto called “dead capital” (inability to use an asset as collateral) applies to HDB flats, a leading TRE cybernut exposed himself as a PAPy dog who wants S’poreans to thank the PAP for the PAP’s public housing policies.
Rabble-rouser wrote:
How can HDB flats be dead capital? [He obviously never read how Hernando de Soto defined “dead capital”: my note]
…
For the older &/or fully paid up home owners, how many would want to unlock their property equity values to engage in risky entrepreneurial activities? Many would prefer to keep their house equity intact for retirement & health needs.
There are so many ways to monetize or reap money from your HDB flats:
* You can sell your HDB flat on the open market if you really need money. The HDB resale market is very liquid compared to private properties.
* Retirees can do a ‘HDB Lease Buyback’ if they want to stay in their HDB flat while monetizing their flat’s remaining lease for spending money.
* You can rent out 1 to 2 room(s) for rental income with HDB approval.
* If you can stay with your kids, then rent out entire HDB flats with HDB approval for even better rentals.
…
* If you really need money, downgrade from EA/EM, 5-rm, 4-rm to 3-rm, 2-rm Flexi. [Just watch out for Retirement Minimum Sum]
I’m surprised he didn’t add “Vote PAP. They look after S’poreans”.
Here I wrote why a good public housing system is good for society quoting the uK’s Conservative party in 1951
Housing is the first of the social services. It is also one of the keys to increased productivity. Work, family life, health and education are all undermined by crowded houses.
I also wrote that in S’pore
things started going wrong when HDB flats on 99-year leases became “assets” to be manipulated for political gain (Think “asset enhancement”). The result: “affordable” public housing now means HDB “owners” having to take out mortgages of 25 years. Not a big problem if one buys a BTO flat from the HDB. After paying off the mortgage, there’s 39 years to go before the value of the flat falls over a cliff.
Here’s another problem: The paid-up HDB flat is an example of Hernando de Soto’s “dead capital” at work.
Hernando de Soto is a big name in development economics. He’s a Peruvian economist known for his work on the informal economy and the importance of business and property rights in development.
While S’pore is a developed economy (notwithstanding what the cybernuts say when they post on TRE or Chris K’s FB page), his idea of dead capital and the problems it causes society applies here too.
If I want a loan – to improve my house, or build a business – lenders need collateral. And land or buildings make particularly good collateral because they tend to increase in value, and it’s hard to hide them from creditors.
But the lender needs to be confident it could take the house away from me if I don’t repay the loan. So, I need to prove that the house really is mine. That requires an invisible web of information that the legal system and the banking system can use.
For Hernando de Soto, this invisible web is the difference between my house being an asset – something useful that I own – and being capital – an asset recognised by the financial system.
‘Dead capital’
In poor countries, a lot of assets are informally held. Hernando de Soto calls them “dead capital”, useless for securing a loan. His estimate was that at the start of the 21st Century there was almost $10tn (£7.5tn) worth of dead capital across the developing world – more than $4,000 (£3,200) for every person.
We are not a poor country, but we got a lot of dead capital because paid-up HDB flats cannot be used as collateral for a bank loan or any other loan.
Question: My HDB property is fully paid up. Can i remortgage/refinance my HDB flat back to the banks for a loan?
Nope. Government rulings prohibit the remortgaging/refinancing of your fully-paid HDB flat for any additional new cash out loans.
http://www.mortgagesupermart.com.sg/resources/frequently-asked-questions
And the PAP administration KPKBs about the need to create an entrepreneurial, risk taking society? Entrepreneurs need funding and banks and other financial institutions need collateral when making risky loans. And property is the best collateral. No collateral, no funding.
We all know the failures of SMRT and MRT. So no need to elaborate.
But the problems at SMRT and MRT and the failure of the PAP administration to hold anyone to account except “the maintenance team” (Though to be fair the team failed to empty the holding tanks beneath tracks so they can absorb rainwater without jamming the service.) shows that the PAP administration has really lost “output legitimacy”.
I wrote this four years ago between GE 2011 and 2015. The results of the two elections showed not that the PAP regained “output legitimacy”; but showed that the PAP spent more of our money on ourselves in between Are you better off now than you were in 2011?(Death of LKY also helped):
The ST has for several weeks been writing about the loss of trust between the people and the govt, and laying the blame on the people (“daft”) who are distracted by the new media’s DRUMS beating the RAVII theme ( OK I exaggerate but juz a little). (BTW, here in a different context, I’ve looked at the role the new media plays: amplification, not distortion of the dissenting, inconvenient voices to the PAP’s narrative which the local media propagandises, while suppressing the former.)
Actually, the loss of trust is due to the PAP govt’s loss of “output legitimacy” since the 1990s.
“Output legitimacy” is the idea that elected leaders make decisions that are unpopular in the short term but will be approved by voters once their success has been demonstrated. A govt aiming for “output legitimacy” (most govts don’t, but the PAP is an exception) is a bold, self-confident govt because the govt and the politicians need to be proved right by events. Sadly for S’poreans and the PAP, the record doesn’t look that great for one LHL. He had been DPM, and in charge of economic and financial issues, and the civil service, since the 1990s, until he became PM in 2004.
Yet events have showed that S’poreans are discontented, not happy with the achievements of his govt. The PAP only polled 60% (lowest ever) in the 2011 GE, and three cabinet ministers lost their seats, with the WP winning for the first time ever a GRC. In the subsequent PE, the PAP’s “preferred” candidate and a challenger (ex PAP man too) polled 35% each. The preferred candidate won by a very short nose.
— https://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/08/16/analysing-pms-coming-rally-speech/
— https://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/08/23/govt-needed-natcon-survey-to-find-these-things-out/
After all S’poreans’ concerns that housing, healthcare and public transport will remain affordable, and on education are the result of govt policies
His dad introduced the concept “output legitimacy” to S’pore (although not the term: too highfalutin perhaps?), partly because it suited LKY’s personality (intellectual thuggery, the belief that “leaders lead” and shouldn’t be governed by opinion polls, and micromanaging**), and partly because while S’pore was a leading Asian city in the 50s and 60s (as LKY and PAP haters like to remind us ad nauseam), that wasn’t saying much for most S’poreans: err bit like now, one could reasonably argue. Examples:
— When the PAP came into power in 1959, unemployment was over 10%; and
— in 1960, 126,000 man-hours were lost in strikes as compared to 26,000 in 1959.
Source: book reviewed here
There were then things that had to be done that would upset many people most of the time for a while. But if the policies worked, then the results would be visible. Well, at the very least, the voters were prepared to give LKY and the PAP, over 70% of the popular vote and all the parly seats for over a decade.
The world’s now a bit more complex since then, and S’poreans’ expectations have rightly risen, so whether it is ever possible that the PAP govt can ever recover “output legitimacy” is open to question even if it has the ‘right” people leading it. But at least it’s willing to spend more of our money on making life a more comfortable for ourselves. Maybe that should be its articulated goal, to frame our expectations of its “output legitimacy”.
Maybe the constructive, nation-building media, and new media outlets that believe in constructive criticism, like the Breakfast Network and the Independent*** can help the PAP govt? Better than flogging the dead horses of trust, daft people and that the internet beats DRUMS to the RAVII theme.
—
*Recriminations, Accusations, Vilifications, Insinuations & Insults
**Remind me of the bible verses: “Are not five sparrows sold for two farthings, and not one of them is forgotten before God?” or “Are not two sparrows sold for a farthing? and one of them shall not fall on the ground without your Father.”
***Independent sucks because it got its branding wrong. Name is so traditional media. In fact there is an established UK newspaper by that name.
Names with a whiff of the establishment seem old hat. Chris West, founder of Verbal Identity, specialists in linguistic branding, says that “they appear to be hankering after a debased culture of corporate magnificence”. Consumers think of them as pompous, self-serving, impersonal. The advantage of calling your business Wonga and GiffGaff lies in the rejection of superfluous formality. We perceive them as younger, more in-touch, less “corporate”. As Mr West concludes, “they sound like words we might hear at the pub”.
Then there is the quality of its writing. But that shows up the pedigree of two of its founders.
As for BN, it’s a work-in-progress, and it’s a gd training place for budding journalists: got ex-TOCer who has learnt to write proper, readable English. So I wish it well, even if I’ve heard allegations about its funding. And it has a great name. Spent a lot of cash getting its name right?
Btw, Breakfast Network morphed into TMG which has just announced that it’s closing. No money. The Independent has morphed into The Idiots.
Related post: Parable of the contented dog/ No need to be grateful to the PAP
Looks like NOL was sold juz when the shipping cycle was about to turn (finally).
Yesterday FT’s authoritative Lex column said under the title “Container shipping: surf’s up
Industry volume growth is expected to hit 5 per cent this year, from 3.8 last year. Scrapping rates have picked up, while new capacity on order is finally falling. Such newfound discipline might last longer than in previous cycles because consolidation has increased the market share of the top six operators to almost two-thirds, from two-fifths in 2013. Four alliances have become three.
Well the ex-general, scholar and ex-Temasek MD running NOL is now CEO of SPH. Good luck to the shareholders.
Here’s real meritocracy at work: US navy when there’s a suspected systematic problem PM, this is accountability
PAP will never let this happen because, if we become a Smart city, no more cushie jobs for PAPpies.
As a TRE reader put it when TRE republished my piece that the post of Speaker is a BS post*:
Trim the fat:
September 7, 2017 at 5:10 pm (Quote)We should just install a couple of Smart robots , programmed to do the jobs of Sg President and Speaker of parliament.
Both are robotic roles in our sunny sg.
Trim the fat wherever possible n see how much money can be saved!
Well we could extend the programme to the entire cabinet including the post of PM. And to all senior civil service posts, govt agencies, and TLC and other GLC posts.
Juz programme them to apply Hard Truths and the Economist.
*Incidentally because it’s a BS posts, PAPpies are right that Tan CJ has what it takes to be Speaker. I perceive him as a Talk Cock Sing Song artiste. Btw, going by Hali’s “presidential” statements, she’s now one of these artistes.
Sad.
What the lure of being able to cry all the way to the bank can do.
But first contrasting HK and S’pore in one sentence:
Tycoons are as synonymous with the story of modern Hong Kong as founding prime minister Lee Kuan Yew is with Singapore.
FT
But thinking about it, both share a common preoblem resulting from this contrast.
The article then goes on to analyse why young Hongkies are unhappy with the legacy of these tycoons. They dominate the HK economy, stifying the aspirations and creativity of the young. Even a tycoon’s heir can feel so frustrated that he has to enter the family business, in order to get on.
Sounds like the legacy that Harry left us. Because of Hard Truths, TLCs and other GLCs dominate our economy, stifling the aspirations and creativity of the young.
And the job market ain’t that good even for elite local grads.
Recently I spoke to a friend whose daughter, an NTU maths scholar, is just about to join a big local bank’s data mining development team on a one year internship (very decent pay). So far so good.
But the catch is that out of the previous cohort of NTU maths grads who finished their internships, only 3 out of 10 manage to get permanent jobs, some continuing on a yr to yr contract. They are told it’s the economy.
Meanwhile LKY’s son rows with his siblings and fixed the presidency so that a presidency reserved only for Malays, has none of the three declared candidates having an i/c saying “Malay”. As I wrote here:
The PAP’s candidate and a candidate who speaks Malay badly both have i/cs saying “Indian” while the third person has one saying “Pakistani”. Even for me who knows about the thin culture line between Malays and some Indian Muslims* am shocked that there isn’t someone with an i/c saying “Malay” willing to stand. Don’t want to be regarded as selling out to the PAP isit? Or unlike “Indians” and “Pakistanis” feeling piseh to stand in a presidency reserved only for “Malays”.
Dr Paul of the SDP has been sharing this quote on FB.
“…Singapore shall forever be a sovereign democratic and independent nation, founded upon the principles of liberty and justice and ever seeking the welfare and happiness of her people in a more just and equal society,” Harry Lee.
Regular readers will know by now that I’m not to fussed about abstract notions (unlike people like Teo Soh Lung and the other ang moh tua kees who join über white horses to pak PAP) about democracy, liberty and justice in S’pore: these are after all juz abstract nouns.
But I care about “welfare and happiness” of S’poreans because S’pore is a wealthy city state that can afford to spend more on S’poreans. It’s the PAP’s failure to spend more of S’poreans’ money on S’poreans that makes me criticise the actions and machinations of the PAP administration, not abstract notions about democracy, liberty and justice. Money talks, BS walks.
Pls read this
HOW NOW SINGAPORE? Revisiting Lee Kuan Yew’s Hard Truths
Tay Kheng Soon
It’s all about using CPF to pay off the bank mortgage. And don’t count on an en bloc sale to keep the value of flat up. The older the group of flats, the more the developer has to pay to govt to top up to 99 years. He’ll bid accordingly. He’s not like Bill Ng, the ATM (or one-armed bandit) that keeps on paying and paying.
Sometime back I featured this great graphic from ST on how the value of a HDB flat will fall over a cliff after the first 35 years. Extracted from http://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/will-you-still-love-your-hdb-flat-when-its-over-64.
But private 99 year old properties are different right?
The reasoning of the salesmen is that banks usually finance leaseholds if the property to have a remaining lease of 30 years on the maturity of the loan
According to OCBC, when it comes to financing of leasehold properties, the requirement is for the property to have a remaining lease of 30 years on the maturity of the loan. “The quantum of loan to be granted is dependent on the bank’s credit assessment, which includes assessment of debt servicing capacity,” says a spokesman in an email response.
https://www.theedgeproperty.com.sg/content/perils-owning-ageing-leasehold-properties
But what these people don’t say is that banks only do this if borrowers can use CPF monies. Banks generally provide financing for the purchase of a leasehold property if home buyers are able to use their CPF.
This is the tricky bit because according to the article I linked to above
CPF has several ways to calculate this [eligibility]…
The first formula is based on the sum of the age of the applicant and the remaining lease on the property. The total must be equal to or exceed 80 years, says Huang. For instance, if the buyer is 40 and the remaining lease on the property is also 40 years, the total is 80 years. This means that the buyer is eligible to use his CPF contribution for the purchase of the leasehold property.
If the buyer is only 30, however, and the remaining lease on the property is 40 years, the total equals 70 years. In this case, the buyer will not be eligible to use his CPF contribution towards the purchase of the leasehold property. “This implies that young people cannot use their CPF to buy old leasehold properties,” says Huang.
And
CPF also requires that a property have a remaining lease of at least 60 years. If the lease on a property is below 60 years, but more than 30 years, a valuation limit is set on the amount of CPF contribution that can go towards the payment of the property.
… the numerator in the ratio will be the remaining lease on the property when the purchaser turns 55. Assuming the buyer is 40 today and the remaining lease on the property he wants to buy is also 40 years, when he turns 55, the remaining lease will be 25 years. The denominator will be the remaining lease today, which is 40 years. The ratio of 25 years/40 years is equivalent to 62.5%.
This means if the property purchase price is $1 million, the buyer can withdraw from his CPF up to a limit of 62.5% of the value, that is, $625,000, explains Huang. “And that percentage is the valuation limit.”
What all this means is that there’s a restricted pool of buyers for older flats if there are problems using CPF monies.
So what? Can always have collective sale right? The article helpfully disabuses
JLL’s Tan advises owners of private residential projects on leasehold sites to be aware that, as the lease gets shorter, the differential premium that developers have to pay gets higher. “This will eat into their sale price,” he says.
Using a recent HUDC enbloc sale
For Rio Casa, if the differential premiums were included, the total land cost would amount to $649.8 million, according to SLP Research (see chart). SLP’s Mak points out that the differential premiums account for about 30% of the total land cost for some of these HUDC estates.
It’s all about financing.
Here’s a great graphic from ST on how the value of a HDB flat will fall over a cliff after the first 35 years. Extracted from http://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/will-you-still-love-your-hdb-flat-when-its-over-64.
They are demonised by govts round the world because of the costs they impose on society.
It is the long-living healthy (non-smoking, non-obese) who ultimately generate the highest lifetime medical costs says a letter writer to the Economist.
Something to chew on
“Counting calories” (August 13th) takes it for granted that obesity costs the National Health Service “billions of pounds each year”. According to a widely cited study from 2008 by Pieter van Baal, a Dutch economist, it is the long-living healthy (non-smoking, non-obese) who ultimately generate the highest lifetime medical costs. Because obese people die younger on average, they require fewer years of medical care and are less likely to fall victim to the expensive morbidities associated with old age. Obesity prevention is important to improving public health and should not be seen purely as a way of saving money.
TAMAY BESIROGLU
London
Here’s an interesting comment from a FT reader commenting on (What else?) Brexit. He’s saying that Brexit (and the Eurozone crisis) should be blamed on cuts to the benefits of what conservatives, the PAP (including Tharman) and the majority of S’poreans (self-included) would call the “undeserving poor”. (They (and me) would be in favour of helping the “deserving poor”.)
The UK is a federation of sorts. On 23 June, it essentially failed. It failed because London had allowed (over a period of ca 30 years) swathes of the country to become impoverished. The transfer union which once existed had been rolled back so much that living standards of the majority of voters had fallen.
London has been rolling back this transfer union because “the elite” has been making the argument that a transfer union makes people lazy. “We must cut benefits (transfers) to encourage people to get on their bikes!” – sounds familiar?
So here’s the problem: … the eurozone will fail if it cannot improve the living standards of its citizens BUT the observation about the dependency transfers induce also holds. The challenge for the eurozone (as much as all our social democracies) is how to square this particular circle?
The Roman emperors got it right. Bread and circuses for the Roman mob, whether deserving or not. Preserving the peace and maintaining power, were more important than rewarding the “deserving” and punishing the “undeserving”. Now that’s an eternal truth.
And here’s another eternal truth: it’s more efficient to help everyone in need whether they deserve it or not http://gladwell.com/million-dollar-murray/.
Trying to differentiate between the “deserving” and ‘undeserving” ends up costing more.
Post said that the man had been sober for several months. But he could relapse at some point and perhaps trash another apartment, and they’d have to figure out what to do with him next. Post had just been on a conference call with some people in New York City who run a similar program, and they talked about whether giving clients so many chances simply encourages them to behave irresponsibly. For some people, it probably does. But what was the alternative? If this young man was put back on the streets, he would cost the system even more money. The current philosophy of welfare holds that government assistance should be temporary and conditional, to avoid creating dependency. But someone who blows .49 on a Breathalyzer and has cirrhosis of the liver at the age of twenty-seven doesn’t respond to incentives and sanctions in the usual way. “The most complicated people to work with are those who have been homeless for so long that going back to the streets just isn’t scary to them,” Post said. “The summer comes along and they say, ‘I don’t need to follow your rules.’ ” Power-law homelessness policy has to do the opposite of normal-distribution social policy. It should create dependency: you want people who have been outside the system to come inside and rebuild their lives under the supervision of those ten caseworkers in the basement of the Y.M.C.A.
That is what is so perplexing about power-law homeless policy. From an economic perspective the approach makes perfect sense. But from a moral perspective it doesn’t seem fair. Thousands of people in the Denver area no doubt live day to day, work two or three jobs, and are eminently deserving of a helping hand—and no one offers them the key to a new apartment. Yet that’s just what the guy screaming obscenities and swigging Dr. Tich gets. When the welfare mom’s time on public assistance runs out, we cut her off. Yet when the homeless man trashes his apartment we give him another. Social benefits are supposed to have some kind of moral justification. We give them to widows and disabled veterans and poor mothers with small children. Giving the homeless guy passed out on the sidewalk an apartment has a different rationale. It’s simply about efficiency.
Funny that the PAP administration’s cost-benefit analysis don’t show this? Not really, because “costs” and “benefits” are in the eye of the beholder i.e. figures can always be fudged. Now that’s another eternal truth.
But first, dare PM, Zorro, Kee Chui or anyone in the PAP or the NTUC dare say they are safeguarding S’poreans’ jobs or wages? (Sorry, the image can’t appear in the post: OK in draft. Go to http://www.theguardian.com/books/gallery/2015/aug/08/the-bodleian-treasures-online-in-pictures and scroll down) (I’ll leave PM’s outrageous attempt at misrepresenting our views on FTs for another day)
Let’s look at the facts of job protection for locals here. I”ll let Manpower Minister (and previously NTUC head) Lim Swee Say speak first.
In an interview last week, said that the government will hold fast to its goal of having a two-thirds Singaporean core in the economy, and this will be the structure of the country’s workforce in the “medium to long term”. BS
NCMP Yee says Lim talking cock over optimistic view of maintaining 1/3 FTs in “medium to long term” For starters, FT workforce already more than 1/3
On his blog [Link] on 21 Aug, JJ pointed out that former Manpower Minister Tan Chuan-Jin had admitted that the one-third FT target is possible only for this decade, during a Parliamentary debate 2 years ago.
“That I agree with.”
“Whilst doing our own computations for alternative models, we had then studied all the publicly available numbers about population in Singapore. There will be net addition to the local workforce from 2013 till 2020, the end of this decade. This is because there will be more Singaporeans turning of age to be included into the workforce than there are Singaporeans retiring.”
He noted that beyond 2020, in order to get the kind of economic growth the PAP government had wanted in the White Paper, there has to be more addition of foreign labour without any addition of local manpower.
“How much to add will depend on productivity growth, which the government had set a target of 2-3%. Sadly, this productivity growth has been near zero or negative in recent years.”
He therefore questioned Lim’s talk of maintaining the 2:1 ratio of Singaporean to foreign workers in Singapore’s workforce in the “medium to long term”.
“So, Mr Lim’s comments that the two-thirds Singaporean core will be something for the ‘medium to long term’ is rather puzzling. What is ‘medium to long term’?”
“His predecessor (Tan Chuan-Jin) had already agreed with me that ‘by 2020 our own domestic labour force growth will basically end up at about zero. So whatever growth we have thereafter will largely be foreign labour growth’ and that ‘it (foreign workforce) is really about one-third for this decade until about 2020.”
Worse, the proportion of local work force seems to be decreasing while that of foreign work force is increasing.
“At the point that I had asked the question in March 2013, based on available manpower data of 2012, locals made up 63.0% of the workforce. By 2014, this figure has dropped to 61.9%. It was 62.1% in 2013 (Source: http://stats.mom.gov.sg/Pages/Labour-Force-Summary-Table.aspx).”
| Mid 2012 | Mid 2013 | Mid 2014 | |
| Total Workforce (‘000) | 3,361.8 | 3,443.7 | 3,530.8 |
| Local Workforce (‘000) | 2,119.6 | 2,138.8 | 2,185.2 |
| % Local | 63.0% | 62.1% | 61.9% |
In other words, as of last year, the proportion of foreign workers in our work force was already 38.1%, more than 1/3.
“Is Mr Lim’s definition of long-term up to 2020 only? If it is beyond 2020, how is he going to achieve that because even with a growing local workforce in this current decade, the ratio has been declining well past the two-thirds ratio already while productivity has failed to improve?”
Hear, hear for JJ, This is the kind of questioning I expect when I voted for WP at the last GE.
Back to the interview. Zorro said that the tightening of Singapore’s foreign manpower was not a reaction to past mistakes, but was rather a reflection that realities had changed. The inflow of foreign manpower was a hot topic during the 2011 General Election, and Mr Lim identified the “determination to manage” the growth of the foreign workforce here as the key shift in manpower policy since.
“It’s not so much because the policy of the past was a mistake but rather, we are now having a new stage of growth and therefore we have to pursue a new direction,” he said.
Oh how very convenient that “a new stage of growth” comes at a politically convenient time?
If anyone believes this, they’ll believe anything.
He went on to say, “Every country has to find the right balance … But on the whole, I would say that we have managed the process a lot more effectively compared to some other cities and countries. Through the manpower quota system, we have ensured foreign manpower spread across all sectors and companies.”
Manpower quota system? As TRE pointed out: for foreign PMETs, that is, foreign EP holders, there is no quota imposed in Singapore.
In the US, for example, the congress controlled their H-1B visa (equivalent to Singapore’s EP) for foreigners tightly. The current US law limits to 65,000 the number of foreign nationals who may be issued a H-1B visa each fiscal year. US laws also exempt up to 20,000 foreign nationals holding a master’s or higher degree from US universities from the cap on H-1B visas. In addition, excluded from the ceiling are all H-1B foreign workers who work at universities, non-profit research facilities associated with universities, and government research facilities. Universities can employ an unlimited number of foreign workers as cap-exempt. This also means that contractors working at but not directly employed by the institutions may be exempt from the cap as well. In FY2010, 117,828 H-1B visas were issued by US government. In FY2012, it was 135,991 [Link].
In Singapore, for example, the figures given by the government for the number of EP holders at the end of 2010 and 2011 were 142,000 and 176,000. That means, there is an increase of 34,000 foreign EP holders in Singapore in 2011 [Link]. If we were to add in S-Pass holders, the increase in number of foreign PMETs in 2011 came to 49,000. That’s already almost half of what the whole of US issued in FY2010.
Also, spouses of H-1B visa holder in US are not allowed to work at all. But in Singapore, spouses of EP holders can work through obtaining a Dependant’s Pass [Link].
Coming back to the protection of jobs and wages, it would seem that the PAP and NTUC can safely say that they are protecting FTs jobs and wages here, given the absence of quotas for employment pass holders. What do you think?
SDP’s Dr Paul Tambyah said something recently that deserves to be very widely known. At a recent forum organised by the National University of Singapore Society where representatives from nine opposition parties and the ruling PAP were present, Dr Paul Tambyah said that young local doctors complaining about the hours and working conditions in hospitals, were told that the hospitals could always employ FTs at lower salaries. If our brightest citizens (even straight As can’t get into the local medical schools) are threatened with FT replacements, what about the Vocational Institutes’ grads?
Yet at the forum Sim Ann representing the PAP said, “We always put SGs front and centre.”
I ask again, “If our brightest and most expensively educated get threatened with being replaced by cheaper FTs, are the Normal streamers safe?”
– Peter Georgescu, the chairman emeritus of Young & Rubicam.
For all their academic brilliance Ah Loong and team have not advanced beyond tinkering with the framework that Dr Goh Keng Swee, Hon Swee Sen and Albert Winsemius devised. Evolution is fine to a point. But surely the world has undergone revolutionary change. When they were constructing their model of serving MNCs as a path to grow the economy, serving MNCs was “neo-colonialism”. Today even Red China serves as the MNCs’ factory.
And many of our PMEs have not gone beyond thinking like clerks, hence they are easily replicable by cheaper FTs?
My friend (member of a small subset of an ethnic minority) posted this on Facebook:
Baghdadi Jew (David Marshall) was able to be Chief Minister because in the 1950s, majority electorate was non-Chinese. Please check the 1950s census.
Fact: many immigrant Chinese did not have voting rights then
LKY as an opposition MP fought hard in legislative assembly in 1955/56 to give citizenship and voting rights chinese and Indian immigrants staying here.
By 1959 GE, the Chinese had become majority and PAP rode on their support to a landslide victory.
He, a stickler for facts was responding to the often repeated comment that since our first Chief minister and first opposition legislative member was a Ceylonese Tamil, waz this about S;porean Chinese not being prepared to have a non Chinese PM? https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10153129351119541&set=gm.382442271965075&type=1&theater
The answer is that the many local Chinese did not have the vote because they were what today Gilbert Goh, and Goh Meng Seng and his fellow cybernuts would call FTs. So much so that majority electorate was non-Chinese.
It was Harry and the PAP that fought for one S’porean, one vote.
But he soon repented: hence Coldstore, GRCs, Spectrum etc etc.
Our very own Harrry and Pope John Paul II (pope in late 80s) had the same view on one topic
Liberation Theology, the controversial movement based on the conviction that the gospels enjoin the Church to put the poor first, which preoccupied and divided Latin America’s Catholics for much of the 1960s, 70s, and 80s. John Paul believed it had tempted some priests and bishops into quasi-Marxist and even violent ideology, and as Pope he cracked down on some Liberation Theologians.
http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-33024951
Sounds like he would have OKed (I’m not saying that he approved Spectrum, juz that he might have had blessed it if he had been consulted) what our Harry did to our Catholic “Marxists”: Vincent Cheng Kim Chuan, Teo Soh Lung, Kevin de Souza, Wong Souk Yee, Tang Lay Lee, Ng Bee Leng, Jenny Chin Lai Ching, Kenneth Tsang Chi Seng, Chung Lai Mei, Mah Lee Lin, Low Yit Leng, Tan Tee Seng, Teresa Lim Li Kok, Chia Boon Tai, Tay Hong Seng and William Yap Hon Ngian.
Would Harry have arrested the present Pope if he were here then working as a priest?
Jorge Bergoglio rejected Marxism – although he cheerfully accepts that he has many Marxist friends – but accepted many of Liberation Theology’s principles, espousing what Austen Ivereigh calls “a nationalist version” of the movement, or a so-called “Theology of the People”.
And he just issued “Laudato Si” encyclical where Francis says that sins against creation are very different from broken financial promises made between people, and everyone is responsible for everyone else because is a moral debt of the rich to the poor: The obligation is universal and implies a preference to those most in need. That is because the poor gain most from generosity and suffer most from hard-heartedness. http://blogs.reuters.com/breakingviews/2015/06/24/edward-hadas-unforgiving-pope-is-right-on-money/
Tell that to Ah Loong who grudgingly spends our money on welfare for ourselves becauses it’s good politics and good for the economy. https://atans1.wordpress.com/2015/06/19/spending-more-on-poor-middle-class-not-juz-cause-ge-coming/
Seriously, I now understand why S’pore has a tradition of Catholics fighting for social justice: people like the above and lawyer Peter Low: social justice is in the DNA of the Catholic church:
the economic writings of both John Paul and Francis also reflect the same intellectual tradition – one known as Catholic Social Teaching. It was originally articulated in an 1891 papal document called Rerum Novarum, in which Pope Leo XIII addressed what he called the “spirit of revolutionary change” then sweeping Europe.
Some of it is very clearly designed to be a rebuttal of the communist ideas that were part of that change, but it is also a critique of aspects of capitalism. So it is an unfamiliar mix that does not fit neatly into the left-right divide that dominated the politics of the following century.
Prof Maurice Glasman, a British economist who used to be a close confidant of Ed Miliband, studied Catholic social teaching for his PhD. He was attracted by the way it rejects the conventional ideologies of both left and right.
It’s not communist or even socialist:
“It really opposes this idea that there is just the state or the market,” he says. “It believes in activating society – what it calls solidarity – so that it can resist the domination by the rich of the poor, but through trade unions and vocational associations and what’s called subsidiarity, which is the decentralisation of power.” Glasman says it is opposed to communism because it “upholds private property” and is “anti-collectivist”.
But some Americans (and I’m sure PAPpists) are not impressed:
Glasman has a vivid memory of being attacked by an American economist after giving a paper at a recent Vatican conference on Catholic social teaching. “You know there’s a word for what you’re saying, Baron Lord Professor or whatever you are,” the challenge began. “Yeah, it’s called Communism. You’re trying to interfere with the prerogatives of management, you’re trying to interfere with capital, and you’re trying to interfere with prices. And that’s been tried – and that’s the Soviet Union.”
But Pope and Cardinal Marx believe in social justice.
During the subsequent discussion Glasman was delighted to find himself supported by both the Pope and the Archbishop of Munich, the appropriately named Cardinal Marx.
So what has all the above to do with Amos, son of mother Mary? Given the involvement of the Church in fighting for social justice, it’s reasonable to conclude that it’s highly likely that Amos is really autistic, sliming the church that is no friend of Harry and Thatcher who he also mocks. Only an autistic would put all three in the same category.
The PAP administration continues to throw our money at ourselves
— Poineer Generation benefits
— smaller SingHealth bills for younger oldies
— extra $ for civil servants
— improving public transport
— “savings” etc etc bonds
Must make Goh Meng Seng, Roy Ngerng, Han Hui Hui and their fellow cybernuts infesting TRE despair, and TOC despair. PAP really spending money on citizens, albeit their own money.
Doubtless post GE, they expect the goodies to stop. And S’poreans will be squeezed again. These will make the cybernuts and TOC happy again, pAP screwing the stupid voters who vote for them.
Well think again. There is a new fashion in economic thinking as this extract shows
[O]n June 15th economists at the IMF released a study assessing the causes and consequences of rising inequality. The authors reckon that while inequality could cause all sorts of problems, governments should be especially concerned about its effects on growth. They estimate that a one percentage point increase in the income share of the top 20% will drag down growth by 0.08 percentage points over five years, while a rise in the income share of the bottom 20% actually boosts growth. But how does inequality affect economic growth rates?
[T]he recent rise in inequality has prompted a new look at its economic costs. Inequality could impair growth if those with low incomes suffer poor health and low productivity as a result, or if, as evidence suggests, the poor struggle to finance investments in education. Inequality could also threaten public confidence in growth-boosting policies like free trade, says Dani Rodrik of the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2015/06/economist-explains-11
The Hard Truths ‘ version is
Economists say that some inequality is needed to propel growth. Without the carrot of large financial rewards, risky entrepreneurship and innovation would grind to a halt. In 1975 Arthur Okun, an American economist, argued that societies cannot have both perfect equality and perfect efficiency, but must choose how much of one to sacrifice for the other. While most economists continue to hold that view …
And we know the author, enforcer of Hard Truths has gone to the hall where Mao, Stalin, Lenin, Churchill and Hitler are dining at the high table.
And we got plenty of $ without resorting to a GST increase (https://atans1.wordpress.com/2015/03/02/after-the-goodies-gst-hikes-acoming-soon/). It’ll come from our NIR
Plenty of money there:
SingFirst is proposing to spend an additional S$6 billion a year – over and above what the government is spending – to tackle what it described as “rising inequality”, funded from the net investment returns (NIR). The NIR allows the government to spend up to 50 per cent of expected long-term real returns on its net assets managed by the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC), Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and more recently Temasek Holdings.
SingFirst said the money will be spent to provide free education, higher subsidised child care and higher transport subsidies, among other things. The biggest ticket item is an old-age pension of S$300 a month for 600,000 senior citizens. The party also wants to phase out the Goods and Services Taxes (GST) by increasing taxes on higher income individuals.
(CNA)
Doubtless Meng Seng* and friends will be quoting Philip Ang**, their financial expert, on why there is no NER.
Funny that Tan Jee Say wants to abolish GST. It’s regressive but that can be overcome by real cash rebates to the poor and middle class, not the PAP’s pseudo rebate to the CPF accounts. In general, economists like GST because of its simplicity and because it taxes consumption, not investment or savings.
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*After last GE, Meng Seng said he would monitor and report on Bishan GRC’s spending plans, ’cause he said the projects they promised were more than Bishan could afford. Err not heard anything from him.
**When analaysing London commercial property (when trying to slime GIC), he leaves out the rental yield, saying yield is irrelevant. Well the reason why the Arab SWFs and big property investors love London is that it offers good rental yields.
In a BBC Online piece dated 24 December, the writer said that Zimbabwe’s president Mugabe and his family “[are] holidaying in Singapore this Christmas.”
Well as Mugabe doesn’t brook any checkers to his power, maybe our PM should ask him for advice since PM grumbles that too many checkers results in him and the PAP administration being unable to get things done: “You will have a lot of checkers, you have no workers… There will be gridlock, like in other countries,” he said. – See more at: http://www.straitstimes.com/news/singapore/more-singapore-stories/story/too-many-checks-will-lead-checkmate-20141208#sthash.m4oKYKQZ.dpuf
Well there is no-one to check Mugabe who has been PM since 1987. The country is a mess http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-30578027 while Robert Mugabe and his ministers in the Office of the President and Cabinet are living large despite a stubborn economic crisis at a time government revenues are dwindling due to a shrinking tax base. – See more at: http://nehandaradio.com/2014/12/28/mugabe-spends-big-amid-poverty/#sthash.FmNmxOnn.dpuf
I don’t think PM wants this outcome here. What do you think?
Telling oil cos that the oil price falls MUST be passed on to motorists.
And to other users of oil-based products.
But as this is S’pore, pigs will fly first. PAP doesn’t do populism even when its the right thing to do economically and popularly. The Hardest of Hard Truth is “Be popular by being unpopular”.
Pump prices
The Daily Telegraph’s front page story focuses on a Treasury warning to petrol companies and supermarkets that oil price cuts must be passed on to motorists.
The main UK fuel suppliers and distributors have denied pump prices have not been reflecting recent falls in the price of oil but Danny Alexander, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, is to write to them.
The Daily Mail suggests critics are likely to say that Mr Alexander should be proposing further cuts to fuel duty rather than just pleading with the petrol giants.
And the Sun concurs. Its leader column also says there is “plainly scope for more cuts” from the fuel companies and wonders about the “crippling fuel surcharges airlines slapped on flights” when the wholesale prices soared.
BBC Online
Conventional wisdom is that the next GE will be held after the 50th anniversary celebrations of S’pore’s independence which will be a celebration of all things PAP. So the Oppo parties are not gearing up for an early GE (end of this yr or before Aug 9 next yr.)
And this piece of news doesn’t disturb the narrative:With the January 2017 deadline for the next General Election looming closer, the Elections Department (ELD) has been calling up public servants for training to be election officials, as part of the electoral process … , the ELD said in an emailed statement: “ELD prepares and organises the Public Service to conduct elections in Singapore. Amongst other work, ELD selects and trains public officers on an ongoing basis to perform election duties during an election.” (CNA 17 October)
There have been early training sessions before with no elections following. The conducting of training sessions is a lousy leading indicator.
But think about the economic prospects of S’pore and the training could be a sign of early elections.
No govt wants to hold a general election in a recession or when a a recession is likely. Already the growth rates for this yr and next yr have had to be trimmed because the global economy isn’t doing too well.
And things could get worse: The global economy is in a woeful state [Skip the next few paras if pressed for time or an illiterate in finance and economics]. The euro zone, fully 17% of global GDP, is predicted to expand just 0.8% in 2014 according to the IMF. China and Japan, together 25% of global GDP, are slowing. Emerging markets are floundering: a report on the synchronised slowdown from the Fund puts much of it down to weak trading partners (a sort of trade contagion). As the world slows, America seems a prudent place to park cash. Chinese and Japanese holdings of US Treasury bonds—now $2.5 trillion—have doubled in five years, according to the TIC data.
… the euro area. Inflation is just 0.3% and the area is already awash with unemployed workers … end up with both fiscal and monetary policy being relatively tight.
What would happen next? American exporters would get hit twice—first by weak demand from abroad, then as their goods get pricier for foreigners to buy as the dollar continues to rise. But since America is a relatively closed economy, the impact abroad could be bigger. The big risk is that a runaway dollar topples emerging-market economies just as it did in the 1980s and 1990s. A pessimist would argue that many of the conditions now are exactly as they were then. Many emerging markets borrow by issuing bonds in dollars, rather than their own currency. Appetite for these higher-yielding dollar bonds has been strong in recent years: in January 2014 Indonesia issued its largest dollar bond since 1998; according to its Finance Ministry data, India has dollar debts of around $273 billion (15% of GDP). As the dollar rises, the local-currency cost of these debts goes up.
Floating exchange rates make things a little different when compared to the Asian crisis, but would not help that much. Take a country like Brazil, which has inflation of 6.75% (see the WSJ on this) and yet an economy in recession. If its currency continues to depreciate against the dollar then inflation builds up further. The central bank ends up in a bind: raise rates to cut inflation and stem the depreciation, or keep rates low to get the economy back on track. Both paths would be risky, and could cause a wider stress if the contagion of previous emerging-market crises is any guide.
With any luck none of this will happen. But it all could happen. And if you are in the business of forecasting and stress testing, you should prepare for the worst.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2014/10/pessimistic-forecast
So what about the fact that oil prices are close to US$80 from US$105 a few weeks ago
[M]ajor Asian economies, though, will look at falling oil prices less as a stimulant and more as a signal that global growth is faltering. For export-dependent Asia, lacklustre worldwide demand could end up being highly disinflationary.
That’s a big worry for the likes of China, Hong Kong and Singapore. These economies have all seen private credit rise rapidly since the 2008 crisis and need tolerably healthy inflation to help bring down the real value of debt. But China’s 1.6 percent inflation rate is now the lowest since February 2010, while the annual rate of increase in Singapore’s consumer prices has slipped below 1 percent. South Korea, which has historically had a problem of high household debt, can’t afford to allow its meagre 1.1 percent inflation rate to slide further.
So I wouldn’t be surprised if 50th anniversary celebration events come fast and furious early next yr: to remind S’poreans of the role of the PAP in S’pore’s development from the second largest port in Asia to a global city state, with property prices to match those of global cities like NY and London.
But I’d be surprised if the PAP reminded us one LKY said in 1959,”we must go about our task (of building up a nation) with urgency … of integrating our people now and quickly”, because he said this when revealing that only 270,00 out of the 600,000 voters were born here.
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*Btw two countries where I have investments will benefit: The big exceptions are India and Indonesia. Both governments supply gasoline and diesel to their consumers at fixed, affordable rates. For them, the 25 percent slide in the price of a barrel of Brent crude over the past four months translates into significant budgetary savings, which could be channelled into much-needed infrastructure investment.
Could be govt wants S’poreans to get married and then breed earlier? Finish poly or vocational training, get a job, earn money and then get handcuffed and breeding is the master plan?
How did I come to think such tots? I had read an article in BT on S’pore’s latest population report, and a piece in the Economist on how the cost of a college education is forcing young Americans into later and later marriages.
BT on 26 September reported that according to the latest Population report released on Sep 25 by the National Population and Talent Division (NPTD — the same people who came up with the population White Paper that was rubbished by scholars). the statistics show a growing number of singles in this country, and when they do marry, it’s at a much later age.
This is the bit from the Economist: the cost of college can delay the day when young people feel they can afford an engagement ring, let alone a family. A third cited their finances as the reason they were not yet hitched, compared with just 20% of those over 35. As one Eminem fan at a recent music festival in Atlanta romantically put it “I’m just trying to sort things one at a time. I’ve got a girlfriend but I’ve also got college debt.”
http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2014/09/marriage-market
With voters annoyed with the govt’s, “We love FTs, even two-timing Raj and Hui Hui”, there seems to be a mnarked slowdown in the FT intake, so The Republic’s population growth has slid to its lowest in a decade, fertility rates have fallen further, and ageing continues at a rapid pace … negative repercussions on the economy …
Latest government figures released by the National Population and Talent Division (NPTD) on Thursday show that the total population grew at its slowest pace in 10 years, expanding just 1.3 per cent to 5.47 million as of June this year.
The easing in total population growth was driven by slower expansion in the non-resident population, which now stands at 1.6 million – an increase of 2.9 per cent compared to 4 per cent a year ago. This was, in turn, a result of the government’s tight restrictions on foreign labour inflows, which saw foreign employment growth slow to 3 per cent versus 5.9 per cent the previous year.
The spin for FTs like Hui Hui. (Ever heard of QC? Though thinking about it, Hui Hui’s a natural life insurance agent, second-hand car salesperson,more of this soon,, sans her looks and voice.)
By granting 20,000 new citizens and 30,000 new permanent residents (PRs) annually in the past few years, the government has kept immigration numbers stable. This is even as the citizen population continues to age, and as Singaporeans have fewer than enough babies to replace themselves. With increasing life expectancy and low fertility rates, there are more citizens in the older age groups today. The proportion of citizens aged 65 years and above rose to 12.4 per cent in 2014 from 11.7 per cent a year ago, while the median age of Singaporeans increased to 40.4 years from 40 years previously. This means the old-age support ratio – which is the number of citizens in the working age band of 20 to 64 needed to support one older citizen – is shrinking rapidly.
It fell from 11.4 in 1980 to 8.4 in 2000, before sinking further to 5.2 in 2014. At the same time, the resident total fertility rate (TFR) fell to 1.19 in 2013 from 1.29 in 2012, which was a “dragon year” on the Chinese zodiac. While NPTD said that the dip from 2012 to 2013 was gentler compared to previous post-dragon years, the overall TFR of 1.19 is far below the replacement level of 2.1.
Taken on their own, the latest population statistics paint a rather grey picture of Singapore’s future. A shrivelling old-age support ratio would mean greater pressure on the working population [Tot govt claims that the great thing about CPF is that it’s not dependent on younger workers unlike ang moh pension systems] and more stress on fiscal policy – worrying trends which population experts have long flagged. (BT 26 September)
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*And we don’t know if post next GE, the floodgates will open again.
S’pore’s govt is forever trying to copy the successes of other places. Examples
— Israel’ and Silicon Valley’s tech prowess (forgot about Estonia meh?);
— Germany’s SMEs’ structure;
— China’s internet, social media censorship practices (thank god we got Yaacob, a Malay, doing it, not the People’s Voice, TKL who wants S’pore to adopt the Chinese practice of all bloggers and posters registering their identities with the govt before they can comment);
— Scottish biotech prowess (the imported Scots went home);
— Swiss standard of living (apparently we reached it but don’t realise it; costs compared); and
— American social conservatives’ values on family (though not on abortion).
The has been adding to global warming (all that hot air, and methane from BS) and a waste of effort, money.
The govt should heed the words of a reader of the Economist (required reading of cabinet, civil service but apparently not Jason Chua and the other morons of that pro-PAP FB page, “Fabrications about the PAP”):
“What politicians and policymakers are looking for is a panacea. Imitating Germany will not work. There have been many attempts to imitate Silicon Valley, but no one has succeeded. It is impossible to copy the culture, thinking and collective experience found in a company or a country.”—on “German lessons”, July 12th 2014.
I could add that stopping aping might even help the PAP . I mean we like Israel got NS and high tech weaponry. But why we no got Israel expertise in civilian high tech meh?. Btw, why NS and the welfare state go hand in hand.
The PAP should walk the talk of what DPM Teo said on 21 July
Singapore has to strengthen its track record of trust, knowledge, connectivity, and livability to attract global companies to set up shop in the country, but must also position itself where it can add most value, said Deputy Prime Minister Teo Chee Hean.
“To achieve sustainable growth, Singapore cannot simply continue to do more of the same, or to put in more resources in a linear fashion,” said Mr Teo, who was speaking at an annual scholarship award ceremony for the Economic Development Board (EDB) on Monday (July 21). (CNA)
The govt should remember that the world class port and the airport and the financial centre were developed without aping any other place. As was SIA, and Keppel Corp’s rig-building businesses. The starting point was the expertise already here, expertise that juz needed nurturing. And Dr Goh aped no-one when he developed Jurong and let the MBCs in.
Growing the economy doesn’t mean more FTs, nor more start-ups, nor more financing of SMEs (owners use money to buy property, flashy cars and donate to WP LOL), but an innovation ecosytem.
This comment by someone analysing the stagnation in the West applies here too
What we need if we are to avoid the much-feared “secular stagnation” is not many small startups—or an obsession with financing “SMEs”–but an innovation ecosystem in which these new firms are made relevant through a dynamic interaction of public and private investments. This requires a public sector able and willing to spend large sums on education, research and those emerging areas that the private sector keeps out of (because of high capital intensity and high technological/market risk); large firms which reinvest their profits not in share-buybacks but in human capital and R&D; a financial system that lends to the real economy and not mainly to itself; tax policy that rewards long run investments over short run capital gains; immigration policy that attracts the best and the brightest from around the world; and rigorous competition policy that challenges lazy incumbents rather than letting them get away with high prices and parasitic subsidies.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/schumpeter/2014/02/invitation-mariana-mazzucato
Given the importance the PAP places on growth (a growing economy translates into voters: a Hard Truth that went wrong when the PAP forgot that growth must benefit voters), one can only hope it focus on creating an innovative ecosystem, rather than talk about it, as it has done for yrs on end.
Related post: https://atans1.wordpress.com/2014/03/13/productivity-ageing-population-immigration/
(Or “Back to the future for WP in next GE?”
In the course of helping the author of Dissident Voices in the research for the sequel, I borrowed the WP 50th Anniversary Commemorative Book from the National Library, Marine Parade branch. I couldn’t find it on the shelves so I asked the librarian if it was “protected” by an invisibility field or was only available to the “right” people. No, it wasn’t hidden away under lock and key. It was openly displayed on the shelf near the PAP’s 50th anniversary book. But it is such an inconspicuous volume that I missed it.
The book told me things that the ST never reported about the 1984 and 1991 general elections. Remember that these events happened before the internet age. If the media didn’t report something, it didn’t exist for practical reasons (Somewhere I blogged on how the 1988 results for Eunos GRC came as a surprise: WP nearly won).
I learnt that the 1984 election manifesto was entitled”Wake Up to Your Freedom , It’s Time”. calling for the people to vote for “the Hammer for a caring society”. The WP called for
— Free and adequate medical care for the needy
— Commission to review education policy
–Free schooling and equal opportunities in education for children from poor families
— Workers’ rights
— Reduced CPF contributions and the right to take your CPF savings at 55
— Adequate care for the aged
— Greater share forSsingaporeans in the economic wealth
— Help for the disabled
— Abolition of tax subsidies and privileges for the rich
— Reasonable compensation for acquired properties
— Abolition of tax on water, light and telephone services
— Review of all fees paid to government and statutory boards
— Guaranteed personal for every citizen
— Freedom from exercise of arbitrary power and protection of citizen’s rights
All this in response to the younger PAP’s ministers call to vote for the PAP for a Swiss std of living.
Compare this to the 2011 manifesto (Key Highlights) which has since been watered down. No more public tpt nationalisation.
I find the 1984 manifesto more stirring and, more importantly, rationally relevant today. True the ideas in the manifesto sounded like pie-in-the-sky in 1984 (when I voted for the WP because I believed that a one-party state was bad for S’pore even though I was happy with most of what LKY, Dr Goh and the other Water Margin “bandits” were doing for us: ya I that ungrateful), but the ideas are no longer rubbish.
According to the PAP we now have a Swiss standard of living (huh? OK, like us the Swiss are unhappy about immigration, so unhappy that in a recent referendum they told the govt to restrict immigration)), and it’s a fact that we got oddles of money in the reserves (though you wouldn’t think so reading Chris Balding and his mindless “hate S’pore” groupies) thanks partly to Dr Goh’s ideas: doesn’t this mean we can now afford the things WP was calling for in 1984?
As regards the danger of overspending, we got the capital, and part of the income from it locked away from the govt in power, whether it be PAP or not. So the govt can only spend what it raises in taxes and the like, what with borrowing requiring the president’s approval.
So the ground is fertile for trying shumething new without worrying that the new policies cannot be reversed.
Another interesting fact I learnt is that according to the book in the 1991 GE, speeches centred mainly on bread-and-better issues:
— The PAP would give beautiful promises before elections but there would always be strings attached — service charges would see a hike soon after.
— Under PAP’s reign, it would be difficult to maintain a family and provide decent education for the next generation.
— Their policies have promoted social inequality and a widening of the rich-poor divide.
— Job security for the workers was pathetically limited.
Sounds familiar? Back to the future?
So, all in all, JBJ and his merry men of bicyle thieves*, ex-Woodbridge patients* , opportunists and economic illiterates were prescient. More prescient than me at least (trained lawyer and wannabe corporate financier). They were prescient earlier than Dr Chee who was still in shorts in 1984. Remember he had been banging away since the 1990s about growing inequality etc as the SDP rightly never fails to remind us. Well JBJ and his merry men had been doing so earlier.
With this track record, why doesn’t WP remind us that it called the future right in 1984 and 1991?
One reason could be that Low is a modest man, not prone in triumphalism; he was Organising Secretary in 1988. Another reason could be that the WP thinks that in the real world the public has a bad impression of the WP in those years even though JBJ is fondly remembered in cyberspace. History began only in 2001, after Low took power from JBJ.
It’s a fact (not a Hard Truth or a Heart Truth) that after the 1997 GE, the WP went AWOL (or is it MIA?).
It went so AWOL or MIA that it could only field two candidates in 2001. It had wanted to field a GRC team too but one James Gomez** it is alleged screwed up, even though publicly Low took responsibility for the balls-up. In 1988, in the first GE under the uber gerrymandering GRC system, it fielded 32 candidates of uneven quality and contested 6 GRCs and 14 SMCs. In 1991 it fielded 13 candidates in 2 GCs and 5 SMCs. in 1996 it fielded 14 candidates in 3 GRCs and one SMC (Houygang). The candidates in 1991 and 1997 were the kind of people voters were comfortable with.
True the leadership had a major distraction that started when JBJ as the editor of the Hammer, even though he didn’t understand written Tamil, published a letter written in Tamil. Let these extracts tell the story.
| Legal Action: An Tamil Article Published on THE HAMMER | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| In November 1995, the Party and the whole of its Central Executive Council found itself the object of two defamation suits filed by five PAP Tamil MPs and eleven members of the Organising Committee of the Tamil Language Week arising from an article published in the Party organ, “The Hammer”. The Plaintiffs’ complaint in both suits was that the article implied that their efforts to promote the Tamil Language had been less than sincere.Members of the Central Executive Council under suit by PAP Tamil MPs and the Organising Committee of the Tamil Language Week were:- | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
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| Eventually, in September 1997, the Party and its Central Executive Council members agreed to pay the five PAP Tamil MPs by 6 instalments, damages for defamation of $200,000/- (inclusive of legal costs). The suit by the eleven members of the Organizing Committee was in the course of hearing at time of writing. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
…
|
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(Above extracts from http://archive.is/lSomP#selection-1561.0-1583.184)
(Update at 6.52 on day of publication: More on nuances of the defamation case: http://article14.blogspot.sg/2012/03/who-got-facts-wrong-kenneth-jeyaretnam.html and http://www.google.com.sg/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CCkQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.lrwc.org%2Fws%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2012%2F03%2FDefamationinSingapore.pdf&ei=N3ErU56GM877rAfhr4D4BA&usg=AFQjCNEGC0kB5Gwv5vdRztQr1ooO1060KA&bvm=bv.63316862,d.bmk)
Whatever the reason for not invoking the past in the past since 2001, the WP should seriously rethink the strategy of trying to be near-clones of the MIW. It was the right strategy in the noughties, and it culminated in the victories in 2011 (it campaigned as the voters’ co-driver to the PAP), 2012 and 2013. Huat ah.
But is it the right strategy for the next GE? For the reasons given above, I think not. It’s like the by-election strategy that was adopted by accident in 1991 (JBJ didn’t want it but he couldn’t get enough WP candidates); gd idea for its time but by the end of the decade had outlived its usefulness.
What do you think?
Especially if the ideas expressed here (http://thehearttruths.com/2014/03/19/truth-exposed-how-the-pap-will-crash-the-singapore-economy/take root in the real world), not juz cyberspace i.e.”cowboy towns” (actually paper-warriors’ alternative reality).
As someone who wants for starters, an opposition that deprives the PAP of a two-thirds parliamentary majority, I don’t want the next GE to be a rerun of the 1997 one.
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*OK, OK . Only one of each. But there were many “strange” MP candidates, pre 1988. But thinking about it only those who perceived reality differently from other S’poreans would have dared take on the PAP in the 70s and 80s. Remember LKY was no wimp like Goh or Pinkie; he was the leader of Water Margin “bandits”.
**Yup the same Gabra Gomez of 2006. His instructors in BMT would sure have been real nervous during range, and grenade throwing. In 2011, SDP made sure he kept away from the form filling.
“Troubles come in threes” is an old English saying.
he PAP may have reason to agree. The PAP has had three unflattering rankings. First off was the one early this yr from the people behind the Corruption Index.
Remember Ng Eng Hen getting upset with Transparency International (TI) for giving Singapore a “poor” rating last year for the way it spends money buying weapons. He said that TI’s assumptions for its assessment were flawed. He questioned its move to group Singapore in the same category as Iraq and Afghanistan. TRE rightly pointed out that given if the government finds TI not to be credible as Dr Ng has alleged in Parliament, perhaps the government should stop using TI’s rankings and surveys altogether.
For a start perhaps, CPIB could stop using TI’s rankings on its website. Presently, it prominently displays TI’s CPI on its home page.
Next, CPIB could remove all references to TI on its website [Link]:
[Err don’t think this is done]
Also, PM Lee should remember not to quote TI in his speeches anymore [Link]:
(http://www.tremeritus.com/2014/02/19/dr-ng-condemns-tis-defence-spending-rating-for-sg/)
Smart people TeamTRE. TRE readers should note that the public face of TRE is a scholar and elite schoolboy. And they hate elites even though one of elites is on TeamTRE. Kinda irrational?
This was followed by EIU naming S’pore as the most expensive city in the world. Tharman rubbished this: My take on Tharman’s take.
BT, part of the constructive, nation-building SPH came out with a piece rubbishing the basis of the index Index and saying that it was not applicable to locals. Extract from BT is at end of article. Kinda long and boring.
Finally there was S’pore’s appearance at 5th spot in the Crony-Capitalism Index http://www.economist.com/news/international/21599041-countries-where-politically-connected-businessmen-are-most-likely-prosper-planet.
So far, there has been conspicuous silence from the govt and its media running dogs (apologies to the dogs) allies, even though the new media is flogging the story with glee, together with the takeover of Olam: anything to do in the PAP?
Could it be that the PAP has realised that silence is golden when it comes to responding to unflattering rankings. Perhaps it has realised the self-defeating nature of rubbishing the unflattering ranking. It gives more publicity to the ranking, shows how hurt it feels and its rubbishing leaves PAP supporters wondering if the assumptions or basis of flattering rankings too are rubbish especially if the rankings come from the same organisation like in case of TI’s rankings.
As someone who hates triumphalism of any sort (the fates get tempted), I hope that the PAP’s silence extends to flattering ratings too. Pigs likely to fly first.
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SINGAPORE may have climbed five spots to claim the “unenviable title” of the world’s most expensive city, according to a bi-annual ranking compiled by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), but economists downplay the significance of the results.
While acknowledging the undeniable existence of rising price pressures here, economists The Business Times spoke to cautioned against extrapolating that the cost of living for locals has skyrocketed.
This is because two key factors – currency fluctuations and the survey’s expatriate focus – would “automatically limit” such deductions.
In order to achieve comparative indices, EIU’s Worldwide Cost of Living survey converts each country’s prices into US dollars. Therefore, a weaker yen pushed Tokyo – last year’s most expensive city – down to sixth place, and this paved the way for Singapore to claim the dubious honour this time around.
Therefore, Singapore’s ascent to costliest city was due in part to currency fluctuations – EIU noted that over the last decade, Singapore has seen 40 per cent currency appreciation.
Said UOB economist Francis Tan: “There’s so much (buzz) about Singapore taking the top spot, but a lot of this has been fuelled by the fluctuations in different currencies. I wouldn’t read too much into it, because next year we could be number 6 again.”
Mizuho Bank economist Vishnu Varathan added: “If one were to look at cost of living from the point of view of a domestic person, then currency movements arguably don’t matter as much.”
CIMB economist Song Seng Wun was also keen to highlight the survey’s expatriate focus and its purpose as a tool for determining foreigners’ salaries.
In its description of the survey, EIU said: “The survey itself is a purpose-built Internet tool designed to help human resources and finance managers calculate cost-of-living allowances and build compensation packages for expatriates and business travellers.”
Still, emphasising that the basket of goods is “fairly broad to address a lot of essentials”, Jon Copestake, editor of the report, told BT: “The survey is also comparative between locations so it could be argued that if a city is most expensive for expats, then why not for everyone?”
But Mizuho’s Mr Varathan pointed out that “the survey has got inherent biases”: “As they’re looking to compare (like-for-like) items, they probably missed out on some local stuff, and that’s going to work against us. For example, if we take the price of a cappuccino, it will likely set you back about $5. But that’s not the same as getting Ah Poh’s coffee at Golden Shoe.”
Limitations aside, all three economists agreed that the survey results are worth reflecting upon, especially since currency fluctuations only tell part of the story.
Noting that Singapore’s rising price prominence has been “steady rather than spectacular”, EIU said that the city-state was the 18th most expensive city 10 years ago.
It said that Singapore has some structurally expensive items that “skew the overall cost of living upwards”, including cars. This has meant that transport costs in Singapore are almost three times higher than in New York.
Added EIU: “In addition, as a city-state with very few natural resources to speak of, Singapore is reliant on other countries for energy and water supplies, making it the third most expensive destination for utility costs.”
Although the survey’s findings could suggest that Singapore may be losing its cost competitiveness, UOB’s Mr Tan thinks otherwise: “There’s a reason why Singapore is expensive, and there’s a price to pay for everything. If (multinational corporations) want to be in a country where you push a button and things work, where there is near-zero political risk, where the business environment is vibrant – they’ve got to pay a premium for that.” 5March BT
I came across this in the latest copy of the Economist in the letters section:
Petty’s cash ledger
SIR – You credited William Petty with inventing economics in the 17th century, but did not do full justice to his cost-benefit calculations (Free exchange, December 21st). The good doctor estimated the value of a person to be somewhere between £60-90 and in “Political Arithmetick” he suggested these values could be used “to compute the loss we have sustained” from the plague and war. In 1667 he argued that given the value of an individual and the cost of transporting people away from the plague in London and caring for them, every pound spent would yield a return of £84 as the probability of survival increased. (He also suggested that an individual in England was worth £90, and in Ireland £70.)
In a lecture on anatomy in 1676 Petty argued that the state should intervene to assure better medicine, which could save 200,000 subjects a year and thus represented a sensible state expenditure. Today’s economic estimates are more refined and the data are more exact, but the arguments presented by Petty still resonate in public policy.
Rashi Fein
Professor emeritus of the economics of medicine
Harvard Medical School
This set me thinking that since the govt is forever touting the importance of costing out the benefits of any spending proposal (something I agree with), maybe it should tell us how much it values a S’porean in monetary terms? Esp since the PM has just said that that more social spending does not mean better results http://www.tremeritus.com/2014/01/11/like-a-war-zone/
As pigs are likely to fly first maybe the SDP RI brains trust (Paul A, Wee Nam, Ang -Drs three- etc) can “force” the govt to do so by coming up with their own SDP valuation, and what they calculate is the PAP valuation.
As to the co driver doing something? They wearing white?
https://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/12/13/why-a-2015-ge-is-now-more-probable/
(There is some analysis of what one LKY said tagged on at the end but yes it’s analysis about M’sia week (previous) ).
Going by this extract from BT, seems that Dr M has forgotten that there was almost no money left in the Treasury when he stepped down.
FORMER Malaysian prime minister Mahathir Mohamad said yesterday that Putrajaya should cut its own costs before burdening the public with higher taxes and tariffs.
It was his first public comment on what has fast become a contentious issue among Malaysians: an increasing cost of living that is set to escalate in 2014.
After the general election (GE) in May, Malaysia was put on notice by the international rating agencies that it had to get its fiscal discipline right. Prime Minister Najib Razak responded by first cutting fuel subsidies and raising petrol prices by 10 per cent in September.
In his October Budget, Mr Najib abolished sugar subsides and pledged to cut total subsidies by 17 per cent in the financial year. The Budget did not achieve that, so most commentators expect more fuel subsidy cuts possibly in the second half of the year. Mr Najib also promised a 6 per cent goods and services tax (GST) by next April.
Yes, yes, I know Badawi accused him of over-spending. But the fact that Badawi and now Najib are having to cut back govt spending shows that Dr M overspent when he was in power. Sadly this never happened here. If only GCT had spent more, LHL, would not be in so much shit. But don’t pity PM: he was DPM then, and in charge of economical and financial matters.
Coming back to Dr M. We can’t be too hard on him given that one LKY said that S’pore was a “barren rock” before the PAP took power. He must have got HK in mind when the British seized HK from the Chinese. I’ll let a HK official tell the story, It was on this day, January 20 in 1841 that a treaty was signed ceding Hong Kong to the United Kingdom.
To cut a long story short, Captain Charles Elliot of the British Royal Navy had negotiated the terms of the agreement and reported them to Lord Palmerston who was then the Foreign Secretary in London.
Lord Palmerston was outraged that Britain had got such a raw end of the deal. He promptly dismissed Captain Elliot from his post and famously declared that Hong Kong was, and I quote: “A barren rock with nary a house upon it. It will never be a mart for trade.”
S’pore as all TRE readers will be able to tell you was the second most important port in Asia, though they may not tell you (because they may not know) that it had problems, problems outlined below*.
LKY would have been on safer ground if he had told S’poreans what might have happened if S’pore had gotten bad govt (like in Burma). But then S’poreans could rightly have asked if there were credible alternatives. The answer to that is not so obvious and detracts from the narrative that the PAP made S’pore. It didn’t: S’poreans of my parents’ generation made modernS’pore on the colonial foundation. The PAP helped in the making.
—
*Singapore Correspondent. Political Dispatches from Singapore (1958-1962)
(http://artsonline.monash.edu.au/mai/new-book-singapore-correspondent/) by Leon Comber*Publisher: Marshall Cavendish International Asia
“Singapore Correspondent” covers five years of Singapore’s colourful political past – a period of living turbulently and sometimes dangerously. It is a collection of eye-witness dispatches, sent from Singapore to London, spanning a time when Singapore was emerging from British colonial rule and moving forward to self-government and independence. Many of the early struggles of the People’s Action Party (PAP) are described as the focus is on the political struggle taking place in which the PAP played a major part. Many important events which have long been forgotten are brought to life. These dispatches prove that political history need not be dull, and indeed can sometimes be entertaining and lively.
* MAI Adjunct Research Fellow
Reviewed here: https://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/01/18/im-invested-in-spore-spore-in-50s-60s/
Related: https://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/01/25/when-55-of-voters-were-fts/
Santa’s critics note that higher profits and productivity have not resulted in higher pay for the elves. They were seeing their real incomes squeezed even before the Fairy Tale of Wall Street had an unhappy ending in 2008, and then took pay cuts rather than lose their jobs. With welfare being cut, most plumped for a job over the dole even if it meant a cut in living standards.
Santa accepts that the workforce has made sacrifices. But he insists these are vital to keep the company going at a time of cut-throat global competition. The elves have to understand, he adds, that the alternative to zero-hour contracts and pay cuts would be that the jobs would be outsourced from Lapland to a lower-cost grotto in the far east.
Doesn’t Santa sound like PM or his dad or VivianB or “cheaper, faster” Zorro etc? I’m so confident that readers will agree that I wouldn’t give examples. This isn’t ST.
As to Scrooge, this is how Dickens described Scrooge before Scrooge repented and became a Dr Chee type of person (actually better than Mad Dog as Scrooge had his personal wealth to spend on the poor, Dr Chee is depending on our reserves and higher taxes)
“Oh! but he was a tight-fisted hand at the grindstone, Scrooge! a squeezing, wrenching, grasping, scraping, clutching, covetous old sinner! Hard and sharp as flint, from which no steel had ever struck out generous fire; secret, and self-contained, and solitary as an oyster. The cold within him froze his old features, nipped his pointed nose, shriveled his cheek, stiffened his gait; made his eyes red, his thin lips blue; and spoke out shrewdly in his grating voice. A frosty rime was on his head, and on his eyebrows, and his wiry chin. He carried his own low temperature always about with him; he iced his office in the dog-days and didn’t thaw it one degree at Christmas.”
“Even the blindmen’s dogs appeared to know him; and when they saw him coming on, would tug their owners into doorways and up courts; and then would wag their tails as though they said, ‘No eye at all is better than an evil eye, dark master!”
Mean of Dickens? Scrooge when asked for donations for the poor, “There are many things which I might have derived good, by which I have not profited” and “Are there no prisons?”. Sounds very much like our very own VivianB when he was welfare minister?
Merry Christmas.
The PAP govt is forever warning that if it loses power, or even loses one more parly seat, chaos will ensure.
Happily 40% of voters no longer believe this self-serving nonsense (hence LKY had to warn Aljunied voters that they would repent; and sneerer of the elderly poor, ACS boy is highlighting every molehill of the WP Aljunied town council), though I must point out that .70% of voters voted for two prominent ex PAPpies in the presidential election. The ex-PAP man who denounced PAP lost his deposit. Dr Chee’s man only got 25%: credible but only ’cause there were two credible ex-PAPpies challenging one another.
So all the more surprising that our constructive, nation-building media hasn’t been highlighting the dire economic situation in Thailand which can be reasonably blamed on Thailand’s more democratic system. Now that BN has closed down, time to bring back Bertha Henson to ST and make her editor? Yaacob’s sis (and Cherian George’s Mrs) isn’t doing the “right” things by the PAPpies, Spock – another bald, pointy ears: SPH’s Managing Editor elder brother?– could conclude.
So far as investors and businessmen crave certainty and predictability, the only thing certain in Thailand these days is unpredictability. The prime minister, Yingluck Shinawatra, Mr Thaksin’s sister, now seems to have only the shakiest grasp on power. It’s a fair bet the election she has called for February 2014 will never even happen. She has assembled forums to discuss vague concepts of “reform”, to appease Mr Suthep. At the same time Mr Suthep pushes for a completely new government to be run by an unelected “people’s council”. That is also known as a coup.
For Thai businessmen, this is coming at the worst possible time: the beginning of the tourist season. Tourism is vital to the national economy. Last year the country pulled in about 22m visitors. Overall, the tourism-and-travel sector contributed about $28 billion to Thailand’s economy, which would make it worth 7.3% of GDP for 2012, according to the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC). Including tourism-and-travel’s indirect impact on the economy would make the sector’s value rise to $64.3 billion, or 16.7% of GDP. The sector employs about 2m people directly, and far more indirectly.
There are already signs that the ongoing street protests and occasional political violence and thuggery are putting plenty of people off coming to the country—hardly surprising, as dozens of foreign governments have issued warnings against travelling to Thailand. The political situation is estimated to have reduced the number of inbound tourists in the month to mid-December by 300,000 people, or 8% of the number expected, says Yutthachai Soonthronrattanavate, president of the Association of Domestic Travel.
That is worrying, as is the thought that the current turmoil could drag on to the election in February, or even longer if that proves inconclusive—in other words, throughout the high season. Mindful of the value of the tourism industry, Mr Suthep’s mobs have promised not to occupy and close down Bangkok’s international airport, as their predecessors, the “yellow shirts”, did in 2008. That is now well understood to have hurt the tourist industry, and the wider economy.
That will not be enough to offset the difference however, as even more tourists are now attuned to Thailand’s problems and willing go elsewhere on their merry ways. Bangkok also makes a bundle as a destination for conferences and conventions, but now organisers are actively considering going to other South-East Asian venues rather than endure the road closures and traffic chaos that accompany endless rounds of street demos (to say nothing of the threat of violence).
The government’s own grandiose spending plans have been thrown up in the air too.A key part of the government’s economic strategy had been to boost domestic demand by Keynesian-style spending, the political failure to have a functioning government has effectively undermined that whole strategy. Plans to borrow as much as $68 billion for new railways and roads are to be put on the back-burner as parliamentary and constitutional approval for these bills is delayed indefinitely. Many businesses, such as construction companies, stood to benefit from those expenditures, and now their plans have been derailed as badly as any holidaymaker’s. Thailand’s growth rate for 2013 is likely to weigh in at 3% or so, relatively modest for the region. The government’s hope to achieve a rate of 7% for 2014 now looks wildly optimistic.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2013/12/business-thailand
Merry Christmas, all, PAPpies and TRe readers, included.
No other Asean news for this week’s Asean-round-up. Lazy leh.
The govt and the constructive, nation-building media keep shouting at us that a rapidly aging population (and the stas do show this aging as a fact, no bull here) will lead to disaster if FTs like two-timing new citizen Raj or Tammy’s killer or the FTs that beat up S’poreans and then fled S’pore*, or a looney, violent bank director are not allowed in by the container load. They point to Japan as what can happen if FTs are not allowed in: economic stagnation. The truth is more complex. As I reported here HSBC, a bank, in 2012 published research that Japan is doing pretty well when compared to other developed countries, including immigrant friendly countries like the US and the UK (though the UK is now repenting its liberal immigration policy)
Whatever the impact of an ageing population on S’pore’s prosperity, here’s a piece of evidence casting doubt on the assumptions (stated or unstated) behind the need to have a population of 6.9m by 2030. It comes from academics from the University of Edinburgh.
The idea that dependent older people represent a great demographic challenge of our age has been turned on its head …The research questions an assumption behind arguments for health, social care and immigration policies … The paper demands society rethink some of its assumptions about elderly dependency – drawing a distinction between the ‘young old’ and the ‘old old’…
Here’s more from the BBC’s Home (i.e. domestic affairs) editor (Note that the paper in question is based on British statistics but the argument seems applicable elsewhere as he points out)
“The extent, speed and effect of population ageing have all been exaggerated and we should not assume that it will strain health and social care systems,” Professor John MacInnes and senior research fellow Jeroen Spijker write in the article ‘Population Ageing: The timebomb that isn’t?’
Healthier and fitter
The mistake people have been making, the paper suggests, is to assume that all pensioners are dependent and all working-age adults are workers.
They point out that, while it is true there are now more people over 65 in the UK than children under 15, rising life expectancy means older people are effectively “younger”, healthier and fitter than previous generations.
“Many behaviours and attitudes (including those related to health) are more strongly linked to remaining life expectancy than to age,” it says.
In 1841, life expectancy at birth was 40 years for males and 42 years for females.
By 1900 it was 52 and 57 and today it is 79 and 83. So the point at which we enter ‘old age’ has also been changing.
Equally, using age to define the adult working populations makes little sense, the authors suggest, because “there are more dependents of working age (9.5 million) than there are older people who do not work”.
So they calculated an alternative measure, what they call “the real elderly dependency ratio”, based on the sum of men and women with a remaining life expectancy of up to 15 years divided by the number of people in employment, irrespective of age.
Important implications
Using this measure, the paper calculates that old-age dependency in the UK fell by one third over the past four decades – and is likely to stabilise close to its current level.
The measure suggests similar falls in many other countries.
“Our calculations show that – over the past four decades – the population far from ageing, has in fact been getting younger, with increasing numbers of people in work for every older person or child,” the authors say.
“The different story of population ageing told by our real elderly dependency ratio has several important implications for health policy and clinical practice.”
In policy terms, this analysis to one of the central challenges of an ageing population might be something of a game changer. Rather than seeing longevity itself as an expensive problem, focus could shift towards managing morbidity and remaining life expectancy.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24921171
The continued refusal of the govt to accept that the issue of ageing population is a complex one and the unwillingness to question its Hard Truth on the issue continued in the face of evidence that the Hard Truth is doing real harm looks all too similar to the intellectual fetters that led central bankers to persist in tighten monetary policy in the early 1930s when faced with a global Depression.
It also shows that they are unlike LKY and Dr Goh Keng Swee who were willing to challenge the conventional wisdom that allowing MNCs in amounted to neo-colonialism. And demographics is not the only issue where the PAP govt is wedded to Hard Truths. Take welfare, where there is evidence that gd welfare systems do not reduce the will to work: they do not make people lazy e.g. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-24974745: another University of Edinburgh study.
Maybe, time to send scholars there to learn to walk on the wild side, and think unHard Truths? After all University of Edinburgh is a great university. It juz doesn’t produce the ruling elite of the UK or the US. Our scholars to to unis where the UK and US ruling elite are educated.
BTW, here’s an article on using robots to as carers for the elderly: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-24949081
—
This call by a PAP,NTUC MP provoked me and someone else into some chim tots, MWC [Migrant Workers’ Centre] cautions workers and employers alike to access the Work Injury System honestly and fairly so that it can provide meaningful compensation to workers who have suffered physical incapacity or impairment from legitimate injuries suffered in the course of their work.
Someone posted on Facebook: From the way the statement by MWC is phrased, I think they should seriously rename themselves the Migrant Worker EMPLOYERS’ Centre, as it is clear they are more concerned about the employers’ interests than they are with the workers they claim to represent.
If the employer alienates the migrant worker for fighting for what he believes he truly deserves, shouldn’t the MWC take the employer to task for such a clearly discriminatory practice that is against MOM’s employment guidelines? Why side with the employer?
I responded to the poster: The unsaid assumptions (reasonable for a NTUC and PAP MP) are that the employers are usually fair-minded people, while migrant workers are out to cheat their fair-minded employers. LOL
I also posted:No matter how gd any system is, it can be gamed. The only way out is to give someone discretion to catch the gamers. Problem is that this leads to other problems*. BTW, gaming the rules is the reason the govt gives as an excuse not to legislate rights to many things that in other societies are accepted as part of the social fabric. Sadly the co-driver tends to agree with the govt. Only the SDP is prepared to challenge this self-serving excuse, not that I’m saying gaming will not happen. We juz have to accept that fact and change the rules, and accept that there will be abuses. Juz try to minimise it.
And as cutting and pasting this post, it struck me that the MAP, NTUC MP does not take into account in the statement, the imbalance of power and resources between the aggrieved migrant worker and an employer. One is on subsistence wages (by our standards at least), the other most probably drives a BMW or Mercedes and owns an apartment or two. This PAP, NTUC doesn’t know the meaning of social justice, and the need to level the odds in favour of the migrant worker.
—
*I was thinking of corruption. S’poreans are always complaining of the rigidity of the public service. One reason for such rigidity is that giving discretion to public servants, opens the doors to their exercising their discretion in return for monetary and other incentives. Hence the rule book.
And ST reported the proof.
Can someone from govt, or its running dogs* in the think-tanks or the constructive, nation-building media explain this ST headline (and accompanying story) on 24th October?
ITE graduates in demand as SMEs face manpower crunch
Job-matching scheme places ITE and poly students in local firms
ST went on
Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are stepping up efforts to recruit Institute of Technical Education (ITE) graduates in a bid to combat the manpower squeeze.
The aim is to place some 300 with local companies every year over the next five years, said Minister of State for Trade and Industry Teo Ser Luck yesterday.
The job-matching, which is part of Spring Singapore’s SME Talent Programme, has sent 32 polytechnic and ITE students to 15 firms since it was launched in June.
Seven trade associations and chambers have also reached out to more than 1,600 students to apply for jobs such as retail associates, clerks and technicians. Employers are eager for more.
(Backgrounder: http://www.tremeritus.com/2013/10/24/demand-for-ite-grads-picks-up-when-foreign-quota-reduced/)
It’s reasonable to conclude from the ST story that this demand for ITE and poly grads is the result of the govt’s very slight retreat from its “We love FTs, first, last and always” policies**. So whatever happened to the Hard Truth that the the more FTs, the more and better jibs for locals? Seems more like BS doesn’t it? But then the line between a Hard Truth and BS can be pretty thin.
(Gd related article: http://www.theonlinecitizen.com/2013/10/where-are-the-good-jobs-prime-minister)
for the record, Yeoh Lam Keong, former chief economist at GIC, has called for the immigration policy to be reversed. “What we need to do is to be much more stringent on admitting such unskilled labour. We’ve really got no excuse to be so relaxed about this kind of immigration.” (BTW, he has also called for the government to return to its roots to meet and serve the needs of ordinary citizens over public housing, education, healthcare, welfare and other services.)
If readers want to read, good, evidence-based critiques of govt policies, not the usual rhetorical rubbish that appears from most of the usual suspects most of the time, Uncle Leong excepted, follow “Lam Keong Yeoh” on Facebook.
Related posts:
https://atans1.wordpress.com/2012/09/17/rewriting-lkys-views-on-fts-and-if-so-why/
https://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/08/17/sccci-sme-survey-proves-lkys-point/
https://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/01/25/when-55-of-voters-were-fts/
https://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/03/12/alternative-to-fts/
https://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/03/17/alternative-to-fts-ii/
For all the highfaluting talk of govt and talk-cock artists especially in the local media, we don’t do things like this even though Burma is in Asean (our backyard):
[I]n Burma – or Myanmar – social media sites and the whole internet have been inaccessible for years.
PM’s comments, “there are countries like China, Vietnam and India which are hungry and anxious to steal the lunch from us”, is pure inflammatory rubbish worthy of Gilbert Goh. They are not trying to steal from us. They are trying to improve themselves, by working harder (and perhaps smarter) than us. PM should leave anti-foreigner comments to Gilbert Goh and friends. Even TRE, TOC not into this kind of rubbish. The PM shouldn’t. But maybe he wants to talk on 5 October at GG’s “regime change” day.
Three other things wrong about his comment:
— Why is he comparing S’pore to these countries esp Vietnam? Tot, PM and his govt say we first world country like Switzerland, or global city like NY or London? I mean even manufacturers from China are moving to Vietnam because labour is cheaper there? What next compare us with Bangladesh or Burma?
— Productivity is more impt than working hard
And it seems that more productive—and, consequently, better-paid—workers put in less time in at the office. The graph below shows the relationship between productivity (GDP per hour worked) and annual working hours:
The Greeks are some of the most hardworking in the OECD, putting in over 2,000 hours a year on average. Germans, on the other hand, are comparative slackers, working about 1,400 hours each year. But German productivity is about 70% higher.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2013/09/working-hours
It’s all about working smart, like the decadent Japs that LKY mocks but who outperform the ang mohs. https://atans1.wordpress.com/2012/10/05/honest-conversation-on-fts-lets-have-it-not-juz-pretend-that-weve-having-it-iswaran/
— “Insatiability, and the 15-hour week — Lessons in life and work”
http://www.economist.com/blogs/prospero/2013/09/insatiability-and-15-hour-week
The most stinging rebuke to PM’s line of reasoning comes close to the end of this longish, but intellectually entertaining piece.
BTW, if PM is genuine about wanting us to trust the govt, in addition to not imitating Gilbert Goh and friends, he should
— ensure that this kind of inflammatory rubbish doesn’t appear in our constructive, nation-building media
No, not the PAP or one of its running dogs talking; but the Economist (Err OK it is part PAPpy friendly ecosystem https://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/09/02/sporeans-avoiding-low-paid-jobs-are-not-lazy-or-daft-juz-rational/, on economic and financial matters, though not when it comes to things like human rights, hanging, democracy, drugs, gays and media freedom.)
The regeneration of Manchester regeneration hasn’t benefited the whole population of the city equally. This is certainly true. The authors of the Manchester Independent Economic Review, published in 2009, found that in the first decade of the new millennium, while in absolute terms, every part of the city improved, inequality in the city had actually sharply increased. The richest bits of the city got richer at a much faster pace than the poorest bits.
I’m not sure that is a bad thing however. Even if we accept that growing inequality across the country is a bad thing, in this case, it strikes me as evidence of success. After all, as this Work Foundation report found, the most equal parts of Britain are towns such as Burnley and Sunderland. Those places are not more equal because the money is spread out more fairly. They’re more equal simply because everyone is poor. Manchester’s growing inequality, like London’s, is proof that it has managed to create well-paying jobs for at least a minority of its population.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/blighty/2013/09/manchester
Surprised our constructive, nation-building media, and the Breakfast Network and Independent are not telling us that rising inequality shows things are working. Maybe the media are waiting for media guidance.
But unlike Manchester, S’pore doesn’t have Manchester’s culture life that students find attractive: Cultural life feeds off economic success. After all, Burnley and Sunderland are not known for their great independent record shops and nightclubs. And it doesn’t have too EPL teams. BTW, for MU fans, the explanation for the defeat is simple: Allah and the Pope had the better of Yahweh on Sunday.
On the clubbing scene attracting students, I knew a German gal who chose to study in Manchester because of the nightclubs. She hated the weather though when she got there. BTW, while she was a party animal, she did very well in the IB exams, a perfect score.
Related posts:
https://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/09/23/the-pap-govt-has-lost-output-legitimacy-discuss/
https://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/09/06/ingratitude-uniquely-sporean-blame-the-internet-not-really/
The ST has for several weeks been writing about the loss of trust between the people and the govt, and laying the blame on the people (“daft”) who are distracted by the new media’s DRUMS beating the RAVII theme ( OK I exaggerate but juz a little). (BTW, here in a different context, I’ve looked at the role the new media plays: amplification, not distortion of the dissenting, inconvenient voices to the PAP’s narrative which the local media propagandises, while suppressing the former.)
Actually, the loss of trust is due to the PAP govt’s loss of “output legitimacy” since the 1990s.
“Output legitimacy” is the idea that elected leaders make decisions that are unpopular in the short term but will be approved by voters once their success has been demonstrated. A govt aiming for “output legitimacy” (most govts don’t, but the PAP is an exception) is a bold, self-confident govt because the govt and the politicians need to be proved right by events. Sadly for S’poreans and the PAP, the record doesn’t look that great for one LHL. He had been DPM, and in charge of economic and financial issues, and the civil service, since the 1990s, until he became PM in 2004.
Yet events have showed that S’poreans are discontented, not happy with the achievements of his govt. The PAP only polled 60% (lowest ever) in the 2011 GE, and three cabinet ministers lost their seats, with the WP winning for the first time ever a GRC. In the subsequent PE, the PAP’s “preferred” candidate and a challenger (ex PAP man too) polled 35% each. The preferred candidate won by a very short nose.
— https://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/08/16/analysing-pms-coming-rally-speech/
— https://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/08/23/govt-needed-natcon-survey-to-find-these-things-out/
After all S’poreans’ concerns that housing, healthcare and public transport will remain affordable, and on education are the result of govt policies
His dad introduced the concept “output legitimacy” to S’pore (although not the term: too highfalutin perhaps?), partly because it suited LKY’s personality (intellectual thuggery, the belief that “leaders lead” and shouldn’t be governed by opinion polls, and micromanaging**), and partly because while S’pore was a leading Asian city in the 50s and 60s (as LKY and PAP haters like to remind us ad nauseum), that wasn’t saying much for most S’poreans: err bit like now, one could reasonably argue. Examples:
— When the PAP came into power in 1959, unemployment was over 10%; and
— in 1960, 126,000 man-hours were lost in strikes as compared to 26,000 in 1959.
Source: book reviewed here
There were then things that had to be done that would upset many people most of the time for a while. But if the policies worked, then the results would be visible. Well, at the very least, the voters were prepared to give LKY and the PAP, over 70% of the popular vote and all the parly seats for over a decade.
The world’s now a bit more complex since then, and S’poreans’ expectations have rightly risen, so whether it is ever possible that the PAP govt can ever recover “output legitimacy” is open to question even if it has the ‘right” people leading it. But at least it’s willing to spend more of our money on making life a more comfortable for ourselves. Maybe that should be its articulated goal, to frame our expectations of its “output legitimacy”.
Maybe the constructive, nation-building media, and new media outlets that believe in constructive criticism, like the Breakfast Network and the Independent*** can help the PAP govt? Better than flogging the dead horses of trust, daft people and that the internet beats DRUMS to the RAVII theme.
—
*Recriminations, Accusations, Vilifications, Insinuations & Insults
**Remind me of the bible verses: “Are not five sparrows sold for two farthings, and not one of them is forgotten before God?” or “Are not two sparrows sold for a farthing? and one of them shall not fall on the ground without your Father.”
***Independent sucks because it got its branding wrong. Name is so traditional media. In fact there is an established UK newspaper by that name.
Names with a whiff of the establishment seem old hat. Chris West, founder of Verbal Identity, specialists in linguistic branding, says that “they appear to be hankering after a debased culture of corporate magnificence”. Consumers think of them as pompous, self-serving, impersonal. The advantage of calling your business Wonga and GiffGaff lies in the rejection of superfluous formality. We perceive them as younger, more in-touch, less “corporate”. As Mr West concludes, “they sound like words we might hear at the pub”.
Then there is the quality of its writing. But that shows up the pedigree of two of its founders.
As for BN, it’s a work-in-progress, and it’s a gd training place for budding journalists: got ex-TOCer who has learnt to write proper, readable English. So I wish it well, even if I’ve heard allegations about its funding. And it has a great name. Spent a lot of cash getting its name right?
including Switzerland and Israel
S’poreans are rightly asking why they should do NS to defend two-timers like new citizen Raj who openly boasted on how his son will avoid NS, while still getting his PR status. (Related post on two-timer Raj)
In return, the govt has been moaning that S’poreans no longer believe in the value of NS. It tries to make NS more “valuable” for us via gimmicks rather than hard cash (“Money talks, BS walks”) and addressing the the issue of defending someone like new citizen Raj and his family.
Apart from addressing the issue of defending people like new citizen Raj and his son, methinks the ministers and ESM should reach for a 6th September article in FT (behind a pay-wall). It is an opinion written by Mark Mazower, professor of history at Columbia University and author of ‘Governing the World”. It is entitled, “The west needs a replacement for the warrior spirit”.
Cutting to the chase, I quote the following:
The late Charles Tilly demonstrated in a series of brilliant sociological studies the extent to which warfare and welfare have historically been tightly connected. Rulers who wanted citizens to fight learnt the hard way that they had to give them something more concrete and appealing to fight for than the privilege of dying in their name. That is why the advent of mass conscript armies, unified around allegiance to the nation, coincided with the dramatic 20th-century transformation in the nature of the state and the swift post-1945 expansion of social rights in the shape of public housing, healthcare and schooling.
During the two world wars, military service resulted in the percentage of the population in uniform in the UK and the US approaching an extraordinary 10 per cent. This kind of warfare accustomed entire societies to new egalitarian norms and demonstrated the indispensability of the state itself as mediator in industrial relations, and as economic strategist and planner. The lessons were learnt and applied after the war as well, underpinning much of the west’s managed capitalism in the years of the post-1945 economic boom.
Get it PAP govt? NS and the welfare state go together. Israel and Switzerland, countries still with NS, have gd welfare systems, BTW.
Maybe, since the PAP doesn’t want a welfare state, scrape NS? Has the additional benefit to the PAP of getting rid of the issue of us defending new citizen Raj and his family. We might be willing to be more amenable to more two-timing new citizens, like Raj.
Get it PAP govt?
Related post: https://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/09/17/where-ns-leads-to-successful-high-tech-start-ups/
No, not us. We are none of these, though we got many of the u/m conveniences, sort of.
Estonia (population 1.3m) is a world leader in technology. Estonian geeks developed the code behind Skype, Hotmail and Kazaa (a precursor of the Napster file-sharing software). In 2007 it became the first country to allow online voting in a general election. It has among the world’s zippiest broadband speeds and holds the record for start-ups per person. Its 1.3m citizens pay for parking spaces with their mobile phones and have their health records stored in the digital cloud. Filing an annual tax return online, as 95% of Estonians do, takes about five minutes. How did the smallest Baltic state develop such a strong tech culture?
Mr Ilves, a co-founder of Skype the president says Estonia’s success is not so much about ditching legacy technology as it is about shedding “legacy thinking”. Replicating a paper-based tax-filing procedure on a computer, for instance, is no good; having such forms pre-filled so that the taxpayer has only to check the calculations has made the system a success. Education is important, too: last year, in a public-private partnership, a programme called ProgeTiiger (“Programming Tiger”) was announced, to teach five-year-olds the basics of coding. “In the 80s every boy in high-school wanted to be a rock-star,” says Mr Hinrikus. “Now everybody in high-school wants to be an entrepreneur.” Mr Hinrikus is a co-founder of Skype.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2013/07/economist-explains-21
Interestingly, some time back ST had a piece entitled “Generating bright ideas in S’pore”. It mentioned Google and Facebbok but not Skype. Wonder why?
Related post: https://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/05/19/estonia-doing-it-spore-still-talking-about-it/
Related link on why S’pore can only talk cock: http://wikileaks.org/cable/2007/02/07SINGAPORE394.html
So PM is working hard on his National Day Rally speech, at least he said so about a week ago. (He shouldn’t be working hard, he should be working smart: hard work is no substitute for using one’s intellect, which PM has in spades, effectively. If working hard were all that mattered, the FTs toiling on our work sites would have it made.)
We have been told that he will focus on public concerns that housing, healthcare and public transport will remain affordable, and on education (I assume, affordability and the stress it causes pushy parents with average kids). He will most probably talk about jobs (including low or stagnating salaries, and how the govt is tackling these issues), as the concerns for good jobs has also been raised at these talk cock sing song Our S’pore Conversation sessions.
Interestingly in February 1958, this was written by an ang moh reporter: “But, governors may come and may go: but the problems of government are the same. The problems that remain in Singapore are housing, health services, education and expansion of industry.”*.
Well the PAP won the 1959 general elections and have governed S’pore since then, and the problems are the same.
By addressing the issue of affordability, will he implicitly be sending the message that he is be ditching dad’s Hard Truth that populism is bad**?
Not if Education Minister Heng Swee Keat, the minister in-charge of Our Singapore Conversation (OSC), is to believed. He told the media this week that OSC is not a knee-jerk, “populist” policy-making exercise. It is not a “major meet-the-people session”, with the govt collating a wish list and then giving the people what they want. He emphasised that OSC does not sacrifice any strategic thinking on the part of the govt for the sake of showing empathy with the people.
But, he would say this wouldn’t he? Let’s juz ignore the DRUMS and the noise, and focus on the effects. “It doesn’t matter whether a cat is white or black, as long as it catches mice,”, said one Deng Xiaoping.
Anyway, Simon Johnson, once the Chief Economist at the IMF, home of austerity’s the answer to almost any economic problem, and now the Ronald A. Kurtz Professor of Entrepreneurship at the M.I.T. Sloan School of Management, Populism and irresponsibility are not, in fact, synonyms. Populism can be sound, he argues. He argues that populism is often used in a pejorative way – as a putdown, implying “the people” want irresponsible things that would undermine the fabric of society or the smooth functioning of the economy.
So what if the people are to be “pampered”? If it is right thing to do by them, do it. According to Simon Johnston, the issue is whether a ”populist” measure in question is a responsible one. If it is, then the label doesn’t matter, juz do it. (https://atans1.wordpress.com/2012/03/20/a-populist-measure-can-be-a-sound-measure-ex-imf-chief-economist/)
“It doesn’t matter whether a cat is white or black, as long as it catches mice.”
Filial piety aside, he should openly embrace, or at least quietly hug in the dark, responsible populism, given the measures he has been taking like civil service pay rises, help for poor in renting flats etc etc. (https://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/07/16/minister-you-thinking-of-yr-govt/)
Next, hopefully (from the perspective of PAPpies, and those of us S’poreans who treasure stability, efficiency and rent-seeking over human rights and democracy), PM works smart on his “likeability”, not on his power point presentation. One of these days, I’ll blog on why he has a great personal story to tell. A preview: overbearing, overachieving father with high expectations who refuses to retire gracefully into old age. And there is more.
PM’s dad was respected and feared. But PM’s not his dad, and times have changed. Kind-heated intellectual thuggery, bullying and hectoring are no longer in fashion with voters. So being “likeable” is very impt.
An analogy with the Catholic Church (Dad used to claim that PAP cadre system was based on the way the cardinals elected the pope, while the pope chose the cardinals, though analysts have pointed out that the PAP’s cadre system more closely resembles the Leninst way organising a “dictatorship of the proletariat”. The best example of this is the way Chinese leaders are elected to run the ruling party and the country.) shows why PM needs to be likeable if the PAP is dominate S’pore politics and life for another 50 years.
So far people have generally taken at face value the image of Francis as a “barefoot pope” who is personally modest, feels compassion for the disadvantaged and is endowed with a basic human warmth that his predecessor seemed at times to lack. He is simply likeable, and that ensures that he commands some respectful attention (even from those who disagree with him) when he seems to be speaking from the heart.
In the leader of a religious organisation whose core beliefs are not open to negotiations, style matters a lot. People can sense hypocrisy and pomposity, and they can also sense the opposite. (http://www.economist.com/blogs/erasmus/2013/07/pope-gays)
As he works smart (not hard) on his speech, he should remember the recent Cambodian elections where the opposition united against a strongman leader who brought prosperity to his country and who sued his opponents for damages and who keeps the media on a very tight leash. It has at least deprived the govt of its two-thirds majority (if not winning the election). (https://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/08/03/cambodian-elections-harbinger-of-sporean-ge/)
All to play for PM.
And keep up the good work of reforming the system. I may not always agree that he is doing the “right” things but I will concede that are trying hard, whatever his motives. But, like the Red Queen in “Through the Looking-Glass, and What Alice Found There”, he is running to keep up with S’poreans rising expectations of change and a better life. To quote Tocqueville as I did here:
experience teaches us that, generally speaking, the most perilous moment for a bad government is one when it seeks to mend its ways….Patiently endured for so long as it seemed beyond redress, a grievance comes to appear intolerable once the possibility of removing it crosses men’s minds.*
And there is the problem of changing a party where there are people like Kate Spade, Charles Chong and VivianB (Don’t do compassion, and sneer at the poor), Lee Bee Wah (Doesn’t do meitocracy at STTA, and her dog used to run away. She now keeps her gates shut tight. My dogs lead such a gd life that one even refuses to leave the house for daily walks), Seng the MP with hearing problems, Ong Ye Kung and Lionel de Souza.
PM would have heard Dr Goh say, as I have, “Oppositions don’t win elections, govts lose elections.”
To sum up: What S’poreans need and want to hear from the PM is what the PAP govt stands for, what it believes, how the govt now would be different from the one before. And that needs to be set out with absolute clarity in a language that S’poreans can understand and empathise with.”
The problem is that PM has been part of the govt since the 1980s, and DPM, and economic, financial and civil service czar in the 1990s and early noughties, and PM since 2004, making it difficult, if not impossible, for him to say move on from the past. He was a major creator of the problems that caused the disconnect between a substantial number of voters and the PAP govt, that he as PM now has to repair.
Even dad would find this impossible to do.
Churchill and FDR juz might have managed to do it, but our PM is no Churchill or FDR, let alone his dad.
—
*Singapore Correspondent. Political Dispatches from Singapore (1958-1962)
(http://artsonline.monash.edu.au/mai/new-book-singapore-correspondent/) by Leon Comber*Publisher: Marshall Cavendish International Asia
“Singapore Correspondent” covers five years of Singapore’s colourful political past – a period of living turbulently and sometimes dangerously. It is a collection of eye-witness dispatches, sent from Singapore to London, spanning a time when Singapore was emerging from British colonial rule and moving forward to self-government and independence. Many of the early struggles of the People’s Action Party (PAP) are described as the focus is on the political struggle taking place in which the PAP played a major part. Many important events which have long been forgotten are brought to life. These dispatches prove that political history need not be dull, and indeed can sometimes be entertaining and lively.
* MAI Adjunct Research Fellow
Reviewed here: https://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/01/18/im-invested-in-spore-spore-in-50s-60s/
Related: https://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/01/25/when-55-of-voters-were-fts/
**Coming a few days after dad launched his latest book on Hard Truths, it may look like he’s giving dad a very tight slap+. Tot that was job of co-driver? Trying to make WP redundant? Or Low and gang not doing enough, preferring to share out contracts and enjoying their salaries? And this reminds me of: Former Singapore Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew’s views expressed in his new book, One Man’s View of the World, are “obsolete,” said Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.
The views represented the Mahathir generation, he added.
“We should not always look at the dichotomy between rights and race, black and white.
“For example, he (Lee) talks about race-based policies, but there is very little understanding of the discourse in the last decade,” he said.
Anwar said Lee was still “trapped in the old mindset,” when he used to be in the opposition during Malaya before Singapore was established.
“His thoughts are not so relevant now in the context of the present day. That is what prompted him to make sweeping statements to generalise the situation in Malaysia,” Anwar told reporters … [Star]
+Filial piety? What filial piety? At least PM learned the lesson from dad that eggs must be broken to make omelets: that the ends justifies the means. LKY should be proud that his son has at least learned this.
I kid you not, miracles can happen. LKY agrees with the Blogging 7, Uncle Leong, E-Jay, s/o JBS, NSP, SDP and all the usual players of DRUMS. The latter have always argued that low productivity is the result of the FT policy. Not included Low or WP among the latter as I don’t know itheir stand on this issue.
Stoolies Foils, Comedy Straightmen ST: On the issue of making productivity gains, we lag behind many developed countries. In manufacturing and services, Singapore’s productivity is only 55 per cent to 65 per cent of that in Japan and the United States.
LKY: Because we have large numbers of migrants who do not fit into the workforce so easily and who do not speak English.Some hold work permits and do not stay for long – they leave within a few years, after developing skills.
http://www.cpf.gov.sg/imsavvy/infohub_article.asp?readid=1072294113-18605-1765558123
This appeared in Tuesday’s BT:
Manufacturing firms in Singapore relied on low-skilled foreign workers as substitutes for machinery between 2003 and 2008, sacrificing productivity levels in the process, according to a study.
The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) study released yesterday, however, found that other factors – unrelated to foreign workers – could have also caused the decline in automation, underscoring the need for greater R&D and product innovation.
The five years in question mark the government’s most recent period of liberal foreign labour policy. Between 2003 and 2008, the dependency ratio ceiling – which specifies the maximum proportion of foreign workers that companies can hire – was raised to 65 per cent; levies for unskilled work permit holders were reduced; and firms were allowed to hire work permit holders from China.
In its study of 1,500 manufacturing firms over that period, MTI found that those which hired relatively more low-skilled foreign workers relied less on machinery for production.
Doesn’t LKY’s words and the MTI study show that the govt talk of increasing productivity over the yrs (from 1990s onwards) was juz that: talk? And now, the guy that was charged with leading the productivity drive in the late 1990s is now the chairman of Temasek? Isn’t S’pore a meritocracy, unlike M’sia?
Where LKY and the DRUMS would disagree is what would have happened if FTs didn’t come in by the cattle-truck load:
But you ask yourself how many small and medium-sized companies will pack up if we cut off the foreign workers?
But isn’t it a chicken-and-egg situation? Precisely because it is so easy and cheap to hire foreigners, the SMEs continue to rely on them. If the tap were tightened, they would be forced to find new ways of operation. There will be some that will shut down, but maybe some level of churn is necessary so that the economy can go on to be more productive.
You cut them off and you find the SMEs just caving in.
Would that be a bad thing, or could that just be a necessary transition?
If our SMEs collapse, we will lose more than half of our economy.
In a way, that is what the Government is now trying to do. They are trying to slow down the growth in the foreign labour force.
Yes, because the Singapore public feels uncomfortable with so many of them. Not because of the economics. From an economic point of view, we should grow.
So how do you see this ending now that we have started to tighten the tap? Does it mean that we will lose half of our economy?
As you bleed out the present workers on work permits, the economy will shrink. But we are keeping the same level and just slowing down the inputs of new workers. Not stopping them. You stop it, you are in trouble.
The DRUMS would argue that the SMEs wouldn’t collapse or move on. They would adapt. I don’t think any elected govt would dare take the risk of allowing SMEs to collapse. It could lose power. As Dr Goh liked to say, repeating a Western political aphorism, “Oppositions don’t win elections, govt lose them.”
Related posts:
Jokey
https://atans1.wordpress.com/2012/11/18/why-productivity-is-so-low-here/
https://atans1.wordpress.com/2012/09/30/no-wonder-spores-productivity-so-low/
https://atans1.wordpress.com/2010/08/27/productivity-ntuc-learn-from-china/
https://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/05/22/singas-ft-replacement/
Serious
https://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/05/23/us-experience-on-growing-gdp-via-productivity/
:
Thoughts of a Cynical Investor 