Rising property prices NOT sign of our virality

Our local PMETs suffer because our PAP millionaire ministers wanted to lower wage costs because they wanted to grow the economy. Rising wage costs is seen as a problem. Hence the flood of FTs.

Maybe they should have have lowered property prices?

There is recent research that

attributes many long-standing economic ills to land. It explores how high and rising land prices affect lending, investment and ultimately productivity, and much of it looks closely at China’s long property boom. The worrying conclusion is that high and rising property prices can also have damaging economic effects, by crowding out productive investment and leading to a misallocation of capital. In the most extreme cases, inflated land prices may already be the cause of a protracted slowdown in productivity growth.

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/07/28/how-high-property-prices-can-damage-the-economy?

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/07/28/how-high-property-prices-can-damage-the-economy?utm_campaign=r.coronavirus-special-edition&utm_medium=email.internal-newsletter.np&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=20221022&utm_content=ed-picks-article-link-5&etear=nl_special_5&utm_campaign=r.coronavirus-special-edition&utm_medium=email.internal-newsletter.np&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=10/22/2022&utm_id=1363799

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Property owners: Thank the PAP govt

Our millionaire ministers deserve their $?

HDB “subsidy” assertions continue

More assertions on the “subsidy” issue

Former Australian prime minister Julia Gillard commented that if you treat voters as sophisticated, they will return the favour. Our millionaire ministers obviously don’t believe this.

They obviously believe thar if they repeat assertions often enough the assertions become the truth, especially if the constructive, nation-building media support the assertions. But they should should remember that the most important component in the constructive, nation-building media has been caught with its pants down. It has admitted lying about its circulation figures after a not constructive, nation-building publication raised issues about the matter.

The SPH media team is now trying very hard to limit the damage.

 t

Housing: Voice of the People in 2022

But the voters should thank the millionaire ministers and the (th Immortal?

Because

Property is crashing everywhere, except in Singapore. The Asian city-state’s private residential prices are up 14% year-on-year, according to third-quarter data from Knight Frank. That’s a sharp contrast to major cities like Hong Kong and Sydney, which saw decreases of 7% and 4% respectively over the same period.

…

The city-state boasts a home ownership rate of nearly 90% as of 2021, thanks to the government’s public housing policies. With average annual real wages growing almost 20% since 2017 and total employment expanding, many households are now looking to upgrade to private residences. Yet due to Covid-19 disruptions, net new housing has fallen below the 10-year average. As of the third quarter, 78% of planned private residential units were under construction, down from 90% in the same quarter in 2021, according to the Urban Redevelopment Authority.

https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/singapore-withstands-global-property-downturn-2023-01-03/

DBS loves industrial Reits, so do I

Of the 11 industrial Reits they cover, DBS has a “buy” call for 10 of them and a “hold” call for Sabana. I hold four of the “buy” recommendations. I’ve been holding two of them (non TLCs) for years, collecting the payouts and smiling. Likewise the one TLC I own. I bot the 4th (non TLC and really cowboy) in March 2020. It’s been a wild ride especially since I opted for scrip not cash. Now marginally underwater, Lower US interest rate increases should help Reits in general.

Property exposure of local banks

Further to The kind of FT turned citizen that S’pore needs, I tot I’ll share this so that someone overseas can KPKB about our banks very, very large exposure to the local property sector.

DBS estimates that approximately 44%-50% of Singapore banks’ loan books are exposed to Singapore properties via residential mortgages and via lending to REITs or other private vehicles may be captured under “financial institutions, investment and holding companies”

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capital/brokers-calls/dbs-explains-what-higher-interest-rates-spell-banks-and-developers-cdl-uol

As the PM’s Mrs made me $ (Tempting fate but thanks again Ho Ching), and I’m not one of those PAP running dogs from our constructive, nation-building media who turn on the PAP like hyenas and jackals once they no longer get paid (Another running dog turned self-appointed tribune of the HDB plebs ), I’ll just keep quiet and look at my bank statement.

I also got exposure to UOB and UOL (via Haw Par: Haw Par: Rediscovered yet again) and Reits.

I’ve never voted for the PAP. But to quote the FT minister, “I’m invested in S’pore”and that is the way I show my appreciation of what the PAP does to keep me in prosperity.

Hwa Hong: When losing is really winning

It’s sweet revenge for the hapless and clueless Ongs who lost out to another family member, Ong Choo Ong: Hwa Hong: Ongs have no stomach for Mexican standoff.

Ong Choo Eng and private equity friends are now in a bad place because of the problems in the UK: volatile sterling and rising interest rates. When he was MD, Choo Eng was always adding to Hwa Hong’s property portfolio UK (mainly London) residential property: Thinking of London property? Think Hwa Hong?. Written in 2014.

The useless Ongs (and me) are looking at our bank statements and smiling.

Meanwhile Ong, Asia Dymon and his other allies will be contemplating higher financing costs and collapsing property prices in the UK. And their clueless M&A adviser and financing bank must be wondering what they all got themselves into.

But don’t need to cry for the winners and their bank: they bot the shares at a 25% discount from its RNAV: Reported NAV is a lot of BS. At the time, it was a good deal for them and a fair deal for me.

Now they need that buffer not to collapse too much, so as not to lose money. UK residential property prices are expected to fall by at least 10%.

HDB tells us flats are juz affordable or unaffordable?

HDB posted this infographic on FB without comment. Is some subversive working in the HDB (and who does not wish the PAP well) illustrating how unaffordable or barely affordable are HDB flats?

ISD must investigate

“Cost of flat up by 44 times while household Income up by 9 times between 1971 & 2021.”.

Assumptions behind “affordable HDB flats”

Commentary: Even with million-dollar HDB flats, housing is still affordable for the average person

Beyond affordability, there are new challenges in the housing market that need attention, says this expert

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/commentary/hdb-bto-private-condo-home-resale-price-affordable-mortgage-inflation-2883131

It’s only affordable because of the repayment period and the large share of income repayment takes.

For new flats

In general, most new flat buyers use less than 25% of their monthly household income to service their monthly instalments, for a 25-year loan. For 4-room flats, which form the bulk of new flat supply, flat buyers would use about 26% of their monthly income if they choose a 20-year loan.

HDB 31 July 2020

Oz: Housing/ Inflation

Two in five homes in Australia are worth less than they were three months ago.  The analysts reckon prices could slip by 15%. 

Hwa Hong: Ongs have no stomach for Mexican standoff

They raised the white flag and will tender their 29.26% stake in Hwa Hong to the consortium led by Ong Choo Eng, a previous MD of Hwa Hong.

So I’ve tendered all my shares.

Without the Ongs block, the consortium faced the probability of failing to achieve a stake of more than 50% in the company. And even if they succeeded, there would be about minority shareholders of about 40%. Hwa Hong: Mexican standoff in the offing/ Must be Asia Dymon again.

As it is, the bidders are likely to be able to take the co private.

So I tendered my shares.

Can’t really complain as the shares appreciated 42% since June. And I had collected a 1 cent dividend in May.

Hwa Hong: Mexican standoff in the offing/ Must be Asia Dymon again

Further to Reported NAV is a lot of BS, here’s more on the unfriendly takeover bid at Hwa Hong.

The current Ong directors and their immediate families, who hold 29.26% of the total number of issued shares, do not intend to accept the Offer. Going by precedent, they won’t be allowed by the authorities to change their minds.

The Ong that is part of the takeover bid was the MD of the company from 1989 to 2021. He was the guy responsible for the good payouts I talked about in Reported NAV is a lot of BS. But his brothers and half brothers didn’t want him handing over the running of the co to his son. They wanted their sons to run the co. Typical Chinese family squabble. Btw, there are those who think that the row between LHL and LSY is a typical Chinese family row along similar lines. LSY’s eldest son’s public comments seem to give credence to the allegations that he thinks as a PES5 Brianac he should be a future LEEder even if the other Brianac Lee did his NS (and is an officer).

Coming back to the bid, the bidders control enough shares to make their offer mandatory. But it remains conditional (more than 50% of shareholders must accept) and it’s hard going because of shareholders like me who are ambivalent about the bid. The bidders are buying in the market at 0.40 cents. Those selling want to take the 40 cents (less commission) and move on.

I tendered 58% of my holdings but I won’t be very unhappy if the takeover fails and my tendered shares get rejected.

Because then there’ll be a Mexican standoff.

The bidders will own anywhere between 30% to a shade under 50%, the other Ongs 29.26% and people like me the balance. A very unstable situation and all to play for.

Even if the bid becomes unconditional, the winners have a Mexican standoff albeit one where they have 50%+ of the votes. They have to contend with critical minority shareholders who will have at least 35% of the votes.

Interestingly, Asia Dymon is part of the bidding consortium. I own shares in Penguin Int’l which Asia Dymon and the MD tried to privatise in 2020. Although they now control the co, they can’t take it private because of people like me. We tot that they should have bid 15% higher. The illiquid shares trade above the takeover price. They stopped the dividend for two years but reinstated it recently at a higher level because presumably they need to finance their loans. A dividend yield of 3.31% is not to be sneered at even if S’pore Savings Bonds now yield 3%.

Asia Dymon never learnt that being a cheapskate is problematic.

Coming soon, never use OCBC to be your adviser when bidding. They can’t even communicate the facts to shareholders.

Err why no rental option?

Just after the latest chapter of the AMK Sers fiasco (Social media and cyberspace went wild when LHY pointed out using a tool used by the govt, those who opt for the 30 or 50 year lease suffer the most from asset depreciation, I got this in my FB feed.

If I was living in one of these Sers flats, I would prefer to rent. I’m 68 and I’m aware I can die at anytime. My dad died around 65.

HK still ahead of us by 67%

Despite its Covid-19 crisis and all the bad things int’l media say about HK

How many square meters of prime real estate does US$1,000,000 buy around the world? Didn’t expect Tokyo and Dubai to be so affordable. Surprised that Sydney is so “unaffordable” relative to Shanghai. Source tps://buff.ly/3NCO9Fe

Property: Be careful, really careful

Our central bank

urges homebuyers to exercise prudence, as housing loans drive increase in household debt

https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/mas-urges-homebuyers-exercise-prudence-housing-loans-drive-increase-household-debt

And well it should

And at the high end, things don’t look that good.

Having said that one of my neighbours is talking of selling and downgrading because he is cash poor. Terrace houses in the neighbourhood are priced at S$3-3.6m each, with corner houses going for S$5.2m. Another neighbour says, why sell unless cash is needed. He’s an ex-SIA pilot who turned 65 last July: great timing his drop-dead gorgeous wife (SIA auntie) says. He’s now a trainer for Boeing.

99-year HDB leases would sound good to Berliners

German’s prefer to rent property, not buy them.

In Berlin, where about 85% of Berliners rent, its not a good idea today. Rents have risen by 36% in the past five years, based on median asking prices.

Our HDB home ownership scheme has been criticised by the usual anti-PAP suspects who say that it’s a scam because after 99 years, the apartment reverts to the state. The amount that the “owner” pays to own it for 99 yrs is rental.

Well then the HK govt also cheats its people: there leases are for 99 yrs. And govts in China and Indonesia (among others) also sell land for periods of up to 60 yrs though in these places, there is often an “understanding” that the lease will be renewed upon paying a premium.

Whatever, the “rent”/ “ownership” costs are more predictable unless interest rates start becoming as volatile as electricity tariffs.

I think Berliners would vote for a city government that announces an HDB policy like ours. LOL.

Why Xi is screwing Evergrande

He is trying to reduce leverage in the Chinese real estate industry by forcing the developers to reduce leverage. The coming takeover by state related entities and tycoons doing NS (Think the Mas of Tencent and Alibaba) of Evergrande (the largest and most indebted property developer) will be a major test for the government and CCP.

He’s taking a risk because if the takeover of the company is mishandled, it will burst China’s almighty housing bubble, hitting growth in the process.

He is trying to curb speculation in housing to ensure every Chinese family can own their own home. First time purchasers have declined very rapidly while the speculators are multiplying like rabbits.

He should learn from S’pore: public housing.

Asian junk bonds yield 12%

Yields on US dollar-denominated bonds issued by riskier Asian borrowers rise to almost 12% as the liquidity (solvency?) crisis at Evergrande, the largest Chinese property developer with the largest debts gets from worse to dire,

Asian property cos love junk bonds

And investors love junk bonds (especially Asian junk) because

Why property prices keeps rollin’ along

Another National day is here and property prices are still ticking up.

Low interest rates are a key driver, not the $4G PAP leaders.

Whatever, let’s join the otters.

Origins of our flag: https://atans1.wordpress.com/2013/08/04/our-flag-did-you-know/

Why I avoid commercial office Reits and developers

About 55% of employers said they expected staff to work from home at least one day a week after concerns about the virus passes, a PWC survey found. And more than 80% of employees said they supported that idea.

Analysts say such a shift could have widespread implications, reducing demand for office and residential properties in expensive city centres. Rents in New York and San Francisco have already dropped.

Why I’m light on office space list cos

In future, 85% of employees would prefer to work remotely at least two to three days a week, according to a survey by CBRE a commercial real estate services company.

And there’s this:

If a white collar job here can be done from home, it can be offshored somewhere cheaper. Could someone else do it more cheaply from KL, JB, Bangkok, Mumbai or Manila? 

Another big problem looming for S’pore

S’poreans want to work from home

An article in the constructive, nation-building ST about S’poreans slowly returning to work in offices reminded of an FT chart in late August or early Sept.

Black mark or slap in the face for the PAP govt’s handling of Covid-19?

Compared with Europe, S’poreans don’t want to return to offices. They all want to skive is it?

Seriously maybe S’poreans think the PAP govt mishandled the Covid-19 pandemic?

The FT reports that whereas the continental European countries think their govts handled the pandemic pretty well, the British and the Americans think their govt’s mishandled the pandemic, hence their reluctance to return to offices.

But then there is this survey: Criticism of PAP govt’s handling of Covid-19 is really “noise”. It shows that S’poreans think the PAP govt is doing a good job in containing the pandemic.

Say one thing, but do another thing isit?

What do you think?

Why I’m into industrial reits?

Rock-bottom interest rates, rising inflation expectations and negative real yields are boosting the present value of future cash flows from real estate. Ultra-low interest rates are also supporting property valuations.

But not all real estate is equal, some are more equal than others.

The less equal than others: Covid-19 has accelerated the growth of online retailing with retail, and especially shopping centres taking the largest hit; hurt the hospitality sector and thrown the future of the office into question. On the last: Derwent, a London UK property co says the true impact of Covid-19 has yet to be felt and warns us to expect sweeping changes to the way we work. 

As for housing, got no money how to buy that condo?

But industrial properties are expected to perform reasonably well. Remember that they are not only used for manufacturing, but for warehousing all the goods ordered online, and as cheap “office” space.

Yields are good if one avoids the TLC industrial reits. They attract a premium whether justified or not.

Covid-19: Property experts, analysts missing this point

Property experts agents and brokers’ analysts tell us that S’pore’s office commercial market sure to recover. Better hurry up and buy.

But they are not telling us what is going to cost serious $

Office owners face millions in extra costs to ‘Covid-proof’ buildings
Landlords including British Land and Canary Wharf Group are adapting workspaces as staff tentatively return

FT

Then there’s the list of safety measures endorsed by the European Property Federation would set landlords back €400,000 (S$646,980) on a €20m (S$32.4m) building, installing temperature scanners in lobbies or more expensive measures such as repainting surfaces with antimicrobial paint.

But then maybe they know that the jobs Heng promises S’poreans will be cleaning jobs pitched at FT levels. Locals will not take the “non living” wage jobs and FTs will come flooding in. LOL.

Wah so many property developers

This table shocked me. Only listcos btw.

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capital/investing-ideas/stay-strongest-developers-weaker-ones-could-cut-selling-prices

Post Covid-19: Not good news for S’pore

In the brave new world post the Covid-19 pandemic, major MNC banks and corporations may no longer need or feel the need to base lots of people in a city like S’pore.

Reading the fortune sticks from CEOs’ comments.

Having thousands of bank workers in big, expensive city offices “may be a thing of the past”, Barclays boss Jes Staley has said.
About 70,000 of Barclays’ staff worldwide are working from home due to coronavirus lockdown measures.This had led to a rethink of the bank’s long term “location strategy”, Mr Staley said.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52467965?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.com/news/business&link_location=live-reporting-story

 Sergio Ermotti (CEO) said UBS was already thinking about moving out of expensive city-centre offices.

CEO of snacks maker, Mondelez, Dirk van de Put says something similar.

Tata’s chairman talks of three quarters of its work force working from home.

Interesting ideas from Germany and US to protecting borrowing home owners and their lenders

Recently I wrote in TRE cybernuts and central bank singing from the same song sheet that our central bank is worried that

Singapore property market faces risks from unsold units, uncertain economy: MAS

Here’s what the Germans do to protect banks and borrowers

German mortgage-lenders embrace an unusual appraisal technique. When assessing the value of a house, they rarely refer to market price; instead they consider “mortgage-lending value”, an assessment of the probable price of a house over the economic cycle. A report from the Bank for International Settlements, a club of central banks, suggests that by discounting short-term price fluctuations, this valuation technique can stop bubbles from forming. Lenders in America once embraced the technique, points out Ed Pinto of the American Enterprise Institute, a think-tank, yet after the second world war it fell out of fashion.

https://www.economist.com/special-report/2020/01/16/what-is-the-future-of-the-rich-worlds-housing-markets

Meanwhile in America

Safe Rate, based in Chicago, offers a new type of mortgage. When local house prices decline, so do borrowers’ monthly mortgage repayments. The benefit for the borrowers is that they save money and are less likely to default. The advantage for investors is that, by preventing foreclosures, more mortgages will be kept going and it is less likely that house prices across a region will spiral downwards.

https://www.economist.com/special-report/2020/01/16/a-decade-on-from-the-housing-crash-new-risks-are-emerging

Hard Truth about Old Guard’s insight on home ownership

It’s a myth that LKY and Dr Goh etc were geniuses for their insight into the importance of home ownership in building a nation and their public housing building programnes.

They were juz good in copying and pasting best practice of ang mosh. From the PAP’s bible*:

After the second world war … Governments across the rich world decided that they had to do more to care for their citizens—both as a thank-you for the sacrifices and to ward off the communist threat.

To this end, they vowed to boost home-ownership. A country of owner-occupiers, the thinking went, would be financially stable. People could draw down on equity in their house when they hit retirement or if they found themselves in difficulty. In the late 1940s and the 1950s manifestos of Western political parties became more likely to identify home ownership as a policy goal, according to research by Sebastian Kohl of the Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies. Over time, the notion that owner occupation was superior to renting became common, even apparently self-evident.

Policies to promote owner-occupation proliferated. In America the Veterans Administration made mortgages with no down-payment available to veterans in the mid-1940s. Canada established the Central Mortgage and Housing Corporation for returning war veterans. In 1950 the Japanese government established the Government Housing Loan Corporation to provide low-interest, fixed-rate mortgages. Changes to international financial regulations also encouraged banks to issue mortgages.

https://www.economist.com/special-report/2020/01/16/how-housing-became-the-worlds-biggest-asset-class

Related post:If LKY were alive, PAP govt wouldn’t publicly admit that HDB leases end worth nothing

—————————————–

*PAP’s bible

I’ve blogged before that the PAP doesn’t need that many smart people as it follows most of the Economist’s prescriptions (except on hanging, drug legalisation, free media and a liberal democracy). It has been an Economist mantra that market pricing is “betterest” because it uncovers the “correct” price. It is also a PAP Hard Truth.

PAP’s bible

S’pore: Lessons for the West’s housing crisis

The Economist has a report on the West’s housing crisis

one of the rich world’s most serious and longest-running economic failures.

S’pore is praised four times (No other city or country is praised that much):

More than nine in ten Singaporeans are homeowners, a higher rate than in any other rich country. And what a nice place it is to live. The city-state is rich, stable and has virtually no crime. The streets are clean.

Singapore seems to confirm what conservatives have long believed: that home ownership makes for richer, happier folk. Lee Kuan Yew, its first prime minister, was a big fan, arguing that it gave ordinary people “a stake in the country and its future”. Margaret Thatcher’s “right-to-buy” programme in the 1980s, allowing Britons in social housing to buy their property at knock-down prices, is said to have been influenced by the Singapore model.

https://www.economist.com/special-report/2020/01/16/home-ownership-is-in-decline

And

Boosting the construction of public housing is also welcome. Singapore, where 80% of residents live in government-built flats, is in some respects the model to copy. The state regularly renovates the buildings and, more controversially, promotes mixing of different sorts of people, to help prevent the emergence of ghettos.

https://www.economist.com/special-report/2020/01/16/what-is-the-future-of-the-rich-worlds-housing-markets

And

Many of those activists argue that overtight land regulation is the root cause of high house prices. To get a sense of the argument, compare Singapore with Hong Kong. Singapore has a fairly elastic planning system. The government owns most of the land. When house-price growth is too strong or the population is rising quickly, the state can release extra land faster than a barman at the Raffles hotel can mix a Singapore sling. In Hong Kong, by contrast, the supply of developable land is controlled by a small clique of oligarchs. What will buy you a cramped bedsit in Hong Kong will buy you a decent-sized pad in Singapore.

https://www.economist.com/special-report/2020/01/16/politicians-are-finally-doing-something-about-housing-shortages

And

Autocratic planning systems do a better job of boosting housing supply. Russia has raised its annual rate of housebuilding from 400,000 a year in the early 2000s to over 1m. Singaporeans who protest against development are routinely ignored, says one with a house located near Tengah forest, some of which will soon be razed to make way for apartment blocks.

https://www.economist.com/special-report/2020/01/16/politicians-are-finally-doing-something-about-housing-shortages

Vote wisely.

60% of S’poreans always do: Why Oppo cock to think that HDB issues will affect the vote

(Last para added on 30 January 2020, at 4.10am)

 

 

Based on joint salaries, what properties available

Here’s a great table from “Here’s the salary you need to earn to afford these homes in Singapore”

https://www.asiaone.com/money/heres-salary-you-need-earn-afford-these-homes-singapore?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR12OUteKQMsmv0WkK7l_waW3MOmm7KPj8gMguNipQlWv3880_5O4Dhoo04#Echobox=1579565572

Btw, nothing great about our property mkt in 2020

The prime sales market in Singapore had an active 2019 despite the cooling measures in place. The city benefited from rising affluence among residents and interest from international buyers. Small price rises are expected in 2020 triggered by pent-up demand.

Sophie Chick, head of Savills world research

Not like M’sia or Manila.

Related posts:

Why S’pore is so shiok for private property investors

Ang moh’s great insight on property mkt

Buying homes the billionaire way: two luxury homes are better than one

Why S$73.8m flat is a steal

But don’t get overgeared: TRE cybernuts and central bank singing from the same song sheet

Property: Get excited about M’sia, Manila

Victoria Garrett, head of residential, Asia Pacific, at Knight Frank writes

The Knight Frank Prime Global Cities Index, which tracks the movement in luxury residential prices across 45 cities, saw 1.1 per cent average annual price growth in Q3 2019, down from 3.4 per cent for the same period in 2018, with secondary cities in Asia — including Taipei, Manila, Guangzhou and Delhi — creeping into the top 10. We expect those markets with strong local economies (Manila, Shanghai and Taipei) to perform strongly in 2020 as well as those cities where wealth forecasts are above the regional average (Bengaluru, Manila, Guangzhou, Ho Chi Min City). [Note she doesn’t mention us. LOL.]

Manila’s prime residential market continues to sprint ahead, with prices rising 5.6 per cent in the first nine months of 2019, adding to the 11.1 per cent rise seen in 2018, according to Santos Knight Frank Research. This is driven by investors buying prime residential property to lease out to employees working in business process outsourcing (BPO) and for Philippine offshore gaming operators. While there are some supply concerns this year, demand should keep pace, and we expect prices to continue rising given the ever-expanding BPO sector.

Malaysia’s residential property market appears to be bottoming out, although it will take time before the market sees a significant improvement. We expect the market to improve gradually with support from government initiatives. The lowering of the price threshold for foreign buyers from RM1m to RM600,000 ($243,000-$146,000) in 2020 for unsold high-rise units in urban areas is expected to help address the overhang, particularly for units in the RM600,000 to RM700,000 range in selected areas.

Remember you read this here first.

Related post: Soon can buy M’sian apt for less than 2-room HDB flat

Another year of sticking to S-Reits

In summary, the models expect recovering GDP growth, extremely low inflation, exceptionally low bond returns, and low but positive equity returns in 2020-22.

Gavyn Davies* talking about the global macro scene for 2020

I tot I would be selling out of my S-Reits in 1Q 2020. Guess I’ll hang around for a bit longer.

*He’s an FT columnist

Gavyn Davies is now chairman of Fulcrum Asset Management and co-founder of Prisma Capital Partners. He was the head of the global economics department at Goldman Sachs from 1987-2001, and was chairman of the BBC from 2001-2004. He has also served as an economic policy adviser in No 10 Downing Street, an external adviser to the British Treasury, and as a visiting professor at the London School of Economics.

FT

Kin Lian talks sense on HDB flat as an investment

Anti-PAP types are using the issue of “HDB lease decay” to try to get S’poreans upset with the PAP: home ownership is above 90% of the population because of HDB flats.

“HDB lease decay” is the term describing the situation where the value of the HDB flat is a big fat zero at the end of the 99 year lease with the value starting to drop very sharply after the remaining lease becomes less than 30 years: (Background reading for those who have not followed the problem with HDB leases of less than 60 years: HDB flats: 35 is a dangerous age) Related link: Older HDB flats: How much value is lost in under 2 yrs.

Tan Kin Lian, PAP cadre gone rogue, wannabe president (He lost his deposit) and the PAP’s useful idiot (He helped the PAP’s preferred candidate win just by standing), waded into the HDB lease decay debate recently. Surprisingly the PAP’s useful idiot said some sensible things.

He wrote that

The phenomenal growth in the value of the HDB flat during the past decades came from three sources:

a) The HDB flats sold prior to 1980 were indeed cheap. It was sold by HDB at subsidized prices, based largely on construction cost. The value of land was negligible then.

b) All property prices, HDB and private, has escalated during the past five decades to the high level today.

c) There was a large boost during the last 15 years due to the influx of foreigners. This has reached its limit.

All this meant a 5 room HDB flat in Marine Parade that was sold for $35,000 in 1975 is now

with a remaining lease of 50 years, [has an] asking [price of] $850,000.

He goes on to say that the above three factors that contributed to the growth in value

is no longer available to the buyer of the HDB flat today. The buyer has to pay the current price, which reflects the high market price today. There is a small subsidy by the government, but not to the same extent as in the past.

The buyer cannot count on the huge growth in property prices in the future. The current prices are beyond the “affordability level”.

The reality is that the buyer of a HDB flat pays a high price for their flat and faces the prospect of the lease decay. It is no longer a good investment. It should be treated as paying advanced rental of the HDB flat for the remaining term of the lease.

He ends

Did the leaders “lie” when they said that HDB flat was a good investment? No, they did not. It was a good investment at that time. But times have changed. It is no longer a good investment today.

He’s right. But do remember that he was Goh Chok Tong’s Organising Secretary in Marine Parade in the 80s. Organising Secretary was and is a tua kee PAP appoitment.

My view has been that for the coming GE (I now think it’ll be in mid 2020. I”ll blog on this soon.), the issue of the ultimate worthlessness of an HDB flat doesn’t matter: Why Oppo cock to think that HDB issues will affect the vote.

It’ll only start mattering in the late 2020s: Why 30-year old HDB flats difficult to sell/ Why PAP rule will end in 2029.

I’ll end with shumething to ponder If LKY were alive, PAP govt wouldn’t publicly admit that HDB leases end worth nothing?

When home ownership is less than 50%?

There be riots?

The high cost of housing in HK

Li [a taxi driver in HK] was amazed at how “cheap” apartments in Singapore are. He lives with his parents in a one-bedroom apartment that is worth HK$6.5 million (US$830,000). He cannot afford to move out and, with his fourteen-hour days, has neither the time nor money to date.

https://sudhirtv.com/2019/11/15/a-longform-on-hong-kong-vs-singapore/

mostly due to the lack of an HDB type building programme because the property tycoons have in the past successfully lobbied against massive public housing programmes in HK.

One cheer for the PAP’s housing policy?

Public housing: a brickbat, two cheers & constructive suggestions

Hong Kong to resume subsidising housing

means that home ownership has fallen below 50% of the population.

In Singapore, home ownership is above 90%.

 

“This was the plan which we had from the very beginning, to give everybody a home at cost or below cost and as development takes place, everybody gets a lift, all boats rise as the tide rises,” LKY

He believed that owning a home gave S’poreans a sense of equity, that they own a part of the city, making them care more for the community. He also felt that home ownership would give Singaporean families an asset and a means of wealth accumulation.

———————

Wealth accumulation? What wealth accumulation?

Why 30-year old HDB flats difficult to sell/ Why PAP rule will end in 2029.

Older HDB flats: How much value is lost in under 2 yrs

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Now I.m not that stupid to think that the riots in HK could have been prevented by an HDB type policy and other economic measures aimed at reducing inequality. HK people are faced with a threat to their ang moh type freedoms: Honkies behaving like spoiled brats adopted by ang mohs (Cont’d)

But more public housing could have eased tensions: Bread and circuses.

Still not too late, if HK and Chinese govts are smart. But they don’t seem to be that smart. But maybe they are worried that a massive HDB type programme will cause unhappiness with those with mortgages to service? A massive HDB-type programme will result in lower values for existing private residential homes.

You might be interested in

Why our housing valuations look decent?

If LKY were alive, PAP govt wouldn’t publicly admit that HDB leases end worth nothing

If LKY were alive, PAP govt wouldn’t publicly admit that HDB leases end worth nothing

Last Saturday, the “Future Of Singapore” launched its housing policy reforms proposal, with speakers talking about proposed reforms to the Hard Truth that HDB leases are worth zero at the end of 99 years.

This reminded me of something interesting I read recently by someone’s whose views I respect (and better still, enjoy reading) and the title of this piece seems to be something he infers.

But first, let me talk about some related matters before introducing you to the writer and his thoughts.

Our cybernuts love to quote our dearly loved and departed Harry that the value of their HDB “will never go down”. They then KPKB that HDB leases will end worth nothing to the owners at the end of 99 years. They think he the 9th Immortal isit?  Can suka suka change the law isit?

They also say that the HDB problem will be a game changer in the coming GE. The PAP will lose a lot of votes and the Coalition of Spastics win win with this: Election manifesto of Spastics League.

My view has been that for the coming GE (I now think it’ll be in mid 2020. I”ll blog on this soon.), the issue of the ultimate worthlessness of an HDB flat doesn’t matter: Why Oppo cock to think that HDB issues will affect the vote.

It’ll only start mattering in the late 2020s: Why 30-year old HDB flats difficult to sell/ Why PAP rule will end in 2029.

And as Dr Paul Thamby (Mad Dog’s minder and Chairman of the SDP) rightly says, if the PAP govt wants to fix the problem, it’s only an administrative matter. He seems to think somewhere along the line, the PAP govt will extend the leases and in return extract money from the plebs.

———————-

Related post: Older HDB flats: How much value is lost in under 2 yrs

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Coming back to the title of this piece and the second paragraph, I enjoy reading Sudhir Thomas Vadaketh even if he tends to go on and on.

In a recent piece comparing S’pore to HK, he has an interesting thought that chimes with the cybernuts views on the HDB problem. He hints that the PAP govt only talked openly about the HDB leases ending worth nothing to the owners at the end of 99 years after Harry’s death because LKY had said of HDB flats:

that their value “will never go down”.

This is what he wrote

Many Singaporeans, meanwhile, may come to believe that their own government—like in Hong Kong, the biggest landowner—has misled their investment decisions. Since independence in 1965 the government has sold public housing with restricted 99-year leases, repeatedly promising, in the words of Lee Kuan Yew, the first prime minister, that their value “will never go down”.

Most assumed the government would reacquire them at fair value. Only recently, following Lee’s death, has it flip-flopped to confirm what some feared: the properties will be worth nothing at the end of their leases. (At which point the government can redevelop the land.)

Put another way, for almost ninety per cent of Singapore’s population, their largest assets and nest eggs, some worth over S$1m (US$740,000), will start to shrink relentlessly to zero at some point during their (or their heirs’) lifetimes.

He then goes on

By contrast those in the upper ten odd per cent, including most politicians and senior civil servants, have wisely purchased freehold homes, many now worth tens of millions of dollars. Their assets will presumably keep appreciating long after their descendants have inherited them (with no estate duties). Singapore appears to have created an intergenerational time bomb of Pikketyan proportions.

https://sudhirtv.com/2019/11/15/a-longform-on-hong-kong-vs-singapore/

Hold yr horses Tommo. Don’t be a cybernut. And anyway, TRE’s cybernut-in-chief thinks S’pore property prices will crash. But Oxygen’s been saying that since he left S’pore decades ago fearing detention. He left S’pore but can’t get S’pore off his mind. He still has a CPF account that he uses to dodge Aussie tax. Talk of being an ingrate. Smart of the PAP to get rid this trash from S’pore.

Seriously, if Tommo is right if Harry were still alive, Larry Wong wouldn’t have dared open his month in 2017. See Fixing Sabo King minister.

And maybe Harry when he was alive, was in private, demanding a technical fix? So that he would not be wrong to say of HDB flats:

that their value “will never go down”.

What do you think?

Final tot: LHY instead of KPKBing that his Tai Kor’s PAP is not their grandfather’s PAP should share with S’poreans what Harry wanted done on the HDB problem: if LKY had any tots on the matter that LHY knows about.

 

TRE cybernuts and central bank singing from the same song sheet

A recurring tune that TRE’s cybernut-in-chief “Oxygen” and his pals (like “Jihadist Joe” aka “Bapak”) shout is that the property market sure to crash and that when that day comes, they shout that they’ll be having orgasms of joy seeing their fellow S’poreans (even anti-PAP voters) suffer. Problem is that they’ve been predicting this since when TRE started (circa 2007, I think).

So my conclusion in reading the u/m headline from the usual constructive, nation-building CNA is that MAS must have been infiltrated by said cybernuts. Time for the ISD to investigate senior central bank officials for being anti-PAP?

Singapore property market faces risks from unsold units, uncertain economy: MAS

Singapore’s property market faces “potential downside risks” from a large supply of unsold units in the medium term and an uncertain economy, said the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) on Thursday (Nov 28).

In its annual Financial Stability Review, the central bank urged prospective buyers, especially households that are highly-leveraged, to be mindful of risks and remain prudent.

Property firms that have built up high levels of leverage and hold large unsold inventory should also exercise prudence …

These concerns come against the backdrop of a moderation in the private residential property market following the cooling measures introduced in July last year.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/mas-financial-stability-review-property-risks-unsold-homes-12133586

Don’t they know there’s a GE (My prediction in 2018 Akan datang: GE in late 2019) and GST rise (How PAP can win 65% plus of the vote) round the corner?

Seriously, just remove Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD) and prices will cheong.

Related posts:

Forgot (ignored?) asset inflation?

Look at our private housing, it’s expensive:

Buying homes the billionaire way: two luxury homes are better than one

Why S$73.8m flat is a steal

Why S’pore is so shiok for private property investors

And even in private property there are govt controls

Ang moh’s great insight on property mkt

PAP whacks greedy pigs

 

 

 

 

Soon can buy M’sian apt for less than 2-room HDB flat

From next yr, foreigners can buy property in federally-governed territories (mostly areas in and around KL), for only 600,000 ringgit (S$198,000: S$200,000 seems to be the value of a 2-room HDB flat in Bedok) following a move by Tun’s government to slash the threshold for foreign buyers by 40% to address an oversupply of high-rise units.

Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng announced the measure in October when he outlined Malaysia’s 2020 federal budget, saying that addressing the oversupply would boost the economy.

Tun (Remember he didn’t want foreigners to buy property in Johor when he came to power?) later warned that “crisis” loomed if the glut in supply was not resolved: “We have to get rid of this overhang so that the market for property becomes healthy again. We need to sell them or the developers will get into trouble.” Mahathir said. The  housing minister, Zuraida Kamaruddin said she hoped the measure would help “restore the financial position of Malaysian developers”.

But Johor or Penang, the places that S’poreans prefer, are not playing ball:

While the central government intends to lower the threshold for units in federally-governed territories next year, individual state governments are not compelled to follow suit.

Although leaders from Penang, Selangor and Johor – states suffering from an oversupply of high-end condominium units – have said they are reviewing their foreign-ownership property thresholds, two of the states have said that the 600,000-ringgit figure is too low.

In some states, foreign buyers are currently limited to property priced at 2 million ringgit(US$480,000)or above.

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3036959/us145000-malaysian-homes-get-cheaper-foreign-buyers-will-locals?fbclid=IwAR2zWYqIOT3HUExC4xH47o9rUF4KNLrsjDFk1McqPVCg2SmkViGZLsMrFIE

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Related posts:

What a 4-room HDB flat buys in Iskandar & KL

S’poreans own Iskandar

Iskandar: Dummies Guide on why it’s rubbish

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I’ll end with

Li [a taxi driver in HK] was amazed at how “cheap” apartments in Singapore are. He lives with his parents in a one-bedroom apartment that is worth HK$6.5 million (US$830,000). He cannot afford to move out and, with his fourteen-hour days, has neither the time nor money to date.

https://sudhirtv.com/2019/11/15/a-longform-on-hong-kong-vs-singapore/

 

Ever wondered why PM wants to build polders?

And not reclaim land the traditional pa’s way, using sand?

In his National Day Rally speech in August, PM talked of building polders along the eastern shoreline from Marina East to Changi. This would protect us from a sea-level rise while also allowing us to gain more land: “new land which we can use for housing and other purposes,” PM Lee said. What he didn’t say was that the land would be sold on 99-year leases, with the revenue going direct to the reserves.

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What are polders?

Polders are land below sea level reclaimed from the sea. They are constructed by first building walls around the area to be reclaimed from the sea and then draining water from it. Water levels in the polders are then controlled by drains and pumps. The Dutch are masters of polder building and maintaining them.

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This is not the PAP govt’s way of copying* what worked in the past: think traditional land reclamation.  Once upon a time, there were hills in Bedok. Earth from these hills was used to reclaim what is now Marine Parade. Flats were then built (and sold on 99 year leases) on the Marine Parade reclaimed land and the now hill-less Bedok.

We soon ran out of local earth to use for reclamation and began importing sand from M’sia and Indonesia. As usual the govts there complained publicly that what we were doing broke their laws, but they quietly allowed the trade to go on so long as their exporters paid bribes. But we had to move on to import sand from Vietnam and Cambodia. There the govts kept quiet about the trade, so long as their exporters paid bribes. At least the govts were not hypocrites like Tun.

But the entire region is running out of sand to sell to

Singapore, a world leader in land reclamation.

The BBC continues

To create more space for its nearly six million residents, the jam-packed city-state has built out its territory with an additional 50 sq miles (130 sq km) of land over the past 40 years, almost all of it with sand imported from other countries. The collateral environmental damage has been so extreme that neighbouring Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Cambodia have all restricted exports of sand to Singapore.

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20191108-why-the-world-is-running-out-of-sand  Written earlier this month.

So we are going to build polders.

Related posts:

I predicted what he’d say: What PM will say in National Dally Rally speech

2025: LKY’s memorial unveiled

We can use 100% green energy by 2035 but won’t

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*Why S’pore’s economic progress went downhill after Dr Goh retired

 

 

Forgot (ignored?) asset inflation?

(Scroll down to read My Comments, if you are adverse to bullshit, from our constructive, nation-building media as they add spin to a MoF report .)

Singaporeans in their 40s better educated, earn more than past cohorts

Constructive, nation-building ST screamed

MediaCorp’s free BS sheet said

Younger Singaporeans in their 40s are more educated and better able to find jobs, they are earning and saving more, and they are on track to longer healthier lives than citizens between the ages of 50 and 79, a new report has found.

The report, released on Tuesday (Oct 22) by the Ministry of Finance (MOF), tracks how socio-economic outcomes have shifted across generations. The study tapped data from the Department of Statistics, and the Health and Manpower ministries.

The report, titled Key Socio-economic Outcomes Across Cohorts, studied a repertoire of socio-economic indicators: Educational attainment; employment and savings; residential-property ownership; health; and family support.

Younger Singaporeans fared better than those in the preceding generations across the majority of these indicators.

Read more at https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/younger-sporeans-better-able-find-jobs-earn-and-save-more-older-citizens-mof-report

My Comments

So what all this gushing to do with the price of eggs? Or rather with the standard of living when the price of assets go up a lot more than salaries?

Here are two examples.

When I started work in the late 70s, I my monthly salary was slightly more than $1000. If I had been married, we would not have been eligible for an HDB flat. If I were starting work today, my starting pay would be around $5,000. HDB’s eligiblity is now $15,000 a month (I think) for a married couple.

With $15,000 entry point the for “affordable” public housing, waz the point of faring “better than those in the preceding generations across the majority of “educational attainment; employment and savings; residential-property ownership; health; and family support”?

The rocketing costs of housing (public and private) have way exceeded the increases in salaries. A new HDB flat in the early 80s in Eunos was $30,000 or thereabouts. Now a BTO four room (actually smaller) could be between $300,000 and $500,000, depending on the locality. Have salaries increased like that? Only for PAP ministers.

And don’t get me started on car ownership. When I joined the workforce, the price of cars had just gone thru the roof (Remember COV?) but I could juz about own one on the never-never. My friend recently told me that his daughters, one a recently graduated doctor and the other an admin service officer (she’s a overseas merit scholar who graduated three yrs ago) can’t afford to own cars. They and their future husbands are saving for the deposit for HDB flats

Read Election goodies: proves the point that PAP needs to be spurred?, written before 2011 GE and remember to vote wisely.

ST’s BS about WeWorks Cont’d

In ST’s BS about WeWorks, recently, I grumbled about ST’s gushing coverage of WeWorks expanding in S’pore while it was facing financial meltdown.

Looks like it’ll close shop here after Softbank’s bail-out:

WeWork is also looking to prioritise three markets — the US, Europe and Japan — and will pull back from other regions including China, India and much of Latin America. It has already begun looking at building closures in parts of its portfolio including in China and other regions.

FT

Morocco Mole (Secret Squirrel’s sidekick), tells me that his cousin, twice removed, working in a leading real estate broker, tells me the landlords that leased space to WeWorks are drowning their sorrows in beer, bracing themselves for terminations. Damages are meaningless because there’s no money to pay them: non recourse to WeWorks.

Time to cut down its newsroom further, SPH?

We threw money at this guy?

To buy properties here?

EDB gifting billionaire money to cheong properties

Buying homes the billionaire way: two luxury homes are better than one

Ang moh who bot S$73.8m flat

Or employ S’poreans?

Only a few months ago I wrote

But if one is a fan of the PAP govt, one can argue that by giving him financial incentives to build his car in S’pore, EDB gets him to manufacture here (creating jobs and expertise), move his HQ here, and buy two properties: killing four birds with one stone.

EDB gifting billionaire money to cheong properties

A few months ago, our constructive, nation-building were trumpeting that S’pore’s a great place because Dyson decided to build his electric car here. Now the media is spinning like hell that his cancellation of his plan to build electric cars here is no big deal. Example CNA says:

WHAT IT MEANS FOR SINGAPORE

With the shuttering of Dyson’s automotive unit, plans for its maiden car plant in Singapore will be scrapped.

If Dyson’s plans had materialised, the plant could have brought about some benefits, said Maybank Kim Eng economist Chua Hak Bin.

“It was a different kind of manufacturing investment,” he said. “Dyson was a lot more futuristic and new tech so we wondered if it would bring parts of the supply chain, in terms of supporting industries, to Singapore.”

When Dyson announced its Singapore plans last year, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong took to Facebook to describe it as “one of the companies creating new and exciting opportunities here” and urged local engineers to “rise to the challenge”.

Trade and Industry Minister Chan Chun Sing also posted on Facebook that he was “happy” about the announcement, as it reflected Singapore’s attractiveness as a base for investments in innovation.

The Economic Development Board, in its yearly report published in February, highlighted autonomous vehicles and smart mobility as one of its key priorities ahead, in a bid to ride on the crest of Dyson’s announcement.

The government agency was in “active negotiations or discussions” with a couple of other electric car makers so as to “build clusters”, its managing director Chng Kai Fong told Bloomberg during an interview in April.

In response to CNA’s queries on its strategy moving forward, EDB’s assistant managing director Tan Kong Hwee said Singapore remains interested in advanced manufacturing activities, including electric vehicles.

“We believe Singapore is well-positioned for activities that leverage on the deep skills of our workforce, the use of advanced technologies such as robotics and automation, and ecosystem of suppliers locally and in the region,” said the emailed response.

“Singapore’s proximity to the markets in Asia will also enable companies to capture growth opportunities in the region.”

The U-turn in Dyson’s plans is set to affect about 20 employees in Singapore. The company told CNA that it has “sufficient vacancies” to absorb most of those affected.

Dyson currently employs about 1,100 people in Singapore, with 350 of them being engineers.

While it may be a lost opportunity for Singapore to produce electric cars, economists think the scrapping of the plant will bring about minimal impact.

“Since the project was very much on the drawing board, I think there will be fairly minimal disruption to local labour force and supply chains,” said Mr Song.

He added: “It would have been a nice feather in the cap. But even without it, we haven’t done too badly going by the investment commitment numbers for the first half of the year.”

At almost S$8.1 billion, Singapore’s fixed-asset investment commitments during the first six months of 2019 already fall within the EDB’s full-year forecast of S$8 billion to S$10 billion.

This despite trade tensions and other global uncertainties slowing down economic growth.

Mr Rajiv Biswas, chief economist for Asia Pacific at IHS Markit, said Dyson has signalled its intention to continue expanding its operations here in Singapore.

“Dyson is expected to continue to develop R&D and technology segments related to electric vehicles, such as battery technology, robotics and artificial intelligence.

“Therefore Singapore’s manufacturing sector may continue to benefit from Dyson’s future R&D in a range of key high technology sectors,” he told CNA.

Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/dyson-hits-brakes-electric-car-what-the-shift-means-singapore-11992980

 

ST’s BS about WeWorks

WeWork to expand to 12 locations in Singapore by year end despite global woes 

ST’s headline screamed today.

The constructive, nation-building ST went on

Co-working space operator WeWork has launched a new space in the Central Business District (CBD) and will add two more locations here in Singapore by the end of the year.

It will have a total of 12 locations in Singapore by this December, which will mark its two-year anniversary in the Republic.

Well FT juz reported

Two people briefed on the fundraising efforts said the office company’s cash crunch was so acute that it had to raise new financing no later than the end of November.

FT says JPMorgan is trying to complete an emergency debt financing package as soon as next week to buy time to restructure after the failed IPO.

Goldman Sachs who is an investor, IPO adviser (like JPMorgan) and customer, is sitting on its hands as JPMorgan tries to get other major banks to also lend money to WeWorks.

It had been tot “current funding arrangements might only carry it through another four to eight quarters unless it rapidly reduced the rate at which it has been burning cash.” LOL.

 

“You don’t need much space to have sex”

Well now you don’t need much space to have a queen bed, furniture and plenty of stuff.  They all can fit into a micro-apartment thanks to Silicon Valley.

Bumblebee Spaces, a robotics company, designs and builds storage and beds for compact living. Furniture and possessions are hidden away inside ceiling boxes, to be raised and lowered at the touch of an iPad. Suspension straps, able to hold up to 3,000lbs, support the boxes, while wall-mounted safety sensors are ready to hit the brakes if something — or someone — stands in the way. A queen-sized bed is lowered from the ceiling, quietly converting a sitting room into a bedroom.

FT

Pixs from a San Francisco rabbit hatch (Or is it chicken cdoop?).

 

Related post: Enough space for Queen Jos to have sex?

 

Why Oppo cock to think that HDB issues will affect the vote

In Christmas, CNY coming early thanks to PAP, I pointed out that the loss of value for resale flats and the older flats has yet to be addressed by the PAP govt. And that there are S’poreans that are unhappy.

But all the KPKBing by cybernuts like Goh Meng Seng (If he still thinks HK better place to bring up his family, how come he so quiet nowadays and btw, I hear his daughter is studying here despite him saying that HK’s education system is better), and Lim Tean (He rents a S$15,000 black and white bungalow from the PAP govt) to stir more unhappiness and discontent, S’poreans are not fooled by their BS.

Our public housing policies mean that public housing is cheap, compared to other major cities, not juz “affordable”.

This table puts into context the issues of

— Falling resale prices causing a problem for the PAP with those who bot resale flats: Double confirm, ground not sweet for PAP and Will this resale flat buyer vote for PAP in next GE?

— 99-year leases: Why 30-year old HDB flats difficult to sell/ Why PAP rule will end in 2029 and Older HDB flats: How much value is lost in under 2 yrs

Christmas, CNY coming early thanks to PAP

Things could be better, a lot better. But 60-70% of voters think (thanks   that housing would be be like in HK, if not for the PAP govt. And while taz not the real pix, they are not that wrong.

Look at our private housing, it’s expensive:

Buying homes the billionaire way: two luxury homes are better than one

Why S$73.8m flat is a steal

Why S’pore is so shiok for private property investors

And even in private property there are govt controls

Ang moh’s great insight on property mkt

PAP whacks greedy pigs

So when will the PAP start worrying about the problem of older flats? Read Why PAP rule will end in 2029.

Christmas, CNY coming early thanks to PAP

HDB sales exercise pushed to September so buyers can benefit from upcoming changes: Lawrence Wong

CNA headline

Mr Wong said that his ministry and HDB have been reviewing how to extend further support to first-timers buying new and resale flats. He will announce the details in September. adding, “We are constantly looking at ways to help young families set up their first homes,” wrote the minister.

The HDB sales exercise is expected to offer about 3,300 flats in Punggol and Tampines.

And to make sure that everyone who has recently bot or is applying for an HDB flat that they owe the PAP one, he reminded S’poreans of

measures which have been introduced in the past years, such as the increase of housing grants for resale flats*, offering flats with shorter waiting times, as well as the flexibility given for students and national servicemen to defer income assessment for housing grants and loans.

“These changes have improved housing affordability and helped young families to secure their own homes earlier,” he added.

Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/hdb-bto-august-sales-exercise-pushed-september-lawrence-wong-11827238

Notice the two elephants in the room that are dancing on his shoulders, he isn’t mentioning?

— Falling resale prices causing a problem for the PAP with those who bot resale flats: Double confirm, ground not sweet for PAP and Will this resale flat buyer vote for PAP in next GE?

— 99-year leases: Why 30-year old HDB flats difficult to sell/ Why PAP rule will end in 2029 and Older HDB flats: How much value is lost in under 2 yrs

If u read this far, suggest u might want read

— The real truths about public housing  my summary of piece by “Tan Jin Meng, a postgraduate from the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy. He has an interest in social policy and economics.”.

— Exposed: Flaws in PM’s HDB spin

Vote wisely. My prediction last yr: Akan datang: GE in late 2019

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*Why 37,000+ sure to vote for PAP

 

EDB gifting billionaire money to cheong properties

In Buying homes the billionaire way: two luxury homes are better than one, I reported that James Dyson was buying not one residential property but two properties S$118.8 (11.2% of S$1bn).

I’m surprised that cybernuts are not KPKB that the EDB is gifting him the money to play our property market

Singapore’s incentives include tax breaks for five years, which can be extended, and R&D grants that can cover up to 30 per cent of the cost of projects that involve product, application or process development, according to the Singapore Economic Development Board. They also offer expensive land at discounted rates, says a person with experience of Singapore’s economic planning. “They definitely would have given [Dyson] a favourable tax break,” they add.

Extract from FT quoted in Ang moh manufacturer employs more people here than in China and planning to employ a lot more.

How EDB got Dyson to come here: “The appeal of Singapore is zero tax”.

But if one is a fan of the PAP govt, one can argue that by giving him financial incentives to build his car in S’pore, EDB gets him to manufacture here) creating jobs and expertise), move his HQ here, and buy two properties: killing four birds with one stone.

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Buying homes the billionaire way: two luxury homes are better than one

Sir James Dyson (Ang moh who bot S$73.8m flat) will purchase his second luxury property according to a report in ST

It says that the S$45m (US$33m) has an infinity pool and indoor waterfall.

The purchase comes after his company moved its HQ from the UK to S’pore: Ang moh manufacturer employs more people here than in China and planning to employ a lot more is to build the first of its electric cars in Singapore, choosing the country over the UK and China..

Earlier this month he bought what is S’pore’s biggest and most expensive penthouse. BT reported that he paid S$73.8m (US$54m) for the “super penthouse”, which has views of Marina Bay Sands and the financial district.

Wonder what TRE’s Oxygen thinks about these purchases. He’s been saying property here is a “sell” ever since he started posting in TRE (at least 8 yrs ago). And he also says the end of PAP rule is nigh.

Meanwhile, I look at my bank statement, see the income from reits and smile.

Ang moh who bot S$73.8m flat

“In order to fix [something], you need a passionate anger about something that doesn’t work well,” James Dyson once said. He’s the man who bot a S$73.8m flat (Why S$73.8m flat is a steal). He is British and he manufactures and sells consumer products (hairdryers, vacuum cleaners and air filters) that are modern looking, well-engineered products. They are also very expensive, even if they are manufactured in the region and China, and not the UK.

Dyson, his private company, already has facilities here (and employs more people than in China — see Ang moh manufacturer employs more people here than in China and planning to employ a lot more) is to build the first of its electric cars in Singapore, choosing the country over the UK and China.

Dyson is planning to break into the automotive industry with a series of electric vehicles, using its existing knowledge in batteries and electric motors to give it the edge over established manufacturers.

What ST & CNA not saying abt Dyson’s move of HQ to S’pore

“The appeal of Singapore is zero tax”: How EDB got Dyson to come here

Electric cars will be made here?

Why S$73.8m flat is a steal

A Mr. James Dyson recently bot a flat for US$55m (S$73.8m). This tops a flat that Facebook co-founder Eduardo Saverin  bot years ago for US$44m.

According to FT’s Lex, Dyson is paying around 40% less per foot than Mr Saverin but that “that could reflect a lower level of luxury”. It goes on

A 26 per cent discount on the list price for the 21,108 sq ft flat is a surer sign of a bargain.

Older HDB flats: How much value is lost in under 2 yrs

Windbag Tan Kin Lian who lost his deposit in 2011 PE but who helped the PAP’s preferred candidate become president has provided some interesting data on how fast a flat can lose value.

A Miss X, he reports, has a HDB flat in Telok Blangah … with a market valuation price of $322,000 as at Dec 2017. The property agent told her that the market price had dropped as her flat had passed the 40 year mark. Later, the market became worse after Lawrence Wong (Fixing Sabo King minister) announced that HDB flat will have no value at the end of 99 year lease.

Miss X could not sell her Telok Blangah flat within 6 months. She had bot another flat nearer her place of work. But HDB did not press her to sell the flat.

She was finally (In late 2018 or early 2019, we are not told) able to get a buyer willing to pay $292,000. HDB gave a lower valuation of $275,000 for the flat. The buyer opted out.

Worse, an agent she had used) is marketing her neighbours’ flats at around $250,000.

From $322,000 to $250,000 within one and a half yrs: a 23% fall. Vote PAP?

The ground is not sweet for the PAP: Double confirm, ground not sweet for PAP and Will resale flat owners still vote for PAP in next GE? contd.

How to get 65% of the popular vote liddat?

Answer: How PAP can win 65% plus of the vote.

Vote wisely.

 

Merdeka Package shows how smart scholars are

It shows how the PAP’s millionaire ministers are killing five birds with one stone.

The Budget especially the Merdeka Generation Package has been condemned by all the usual suspects. Alt media and social media is full of criticism of said Budget. Nothing new here especially from the cybernuts who like Goh Meng Seng are prepared to misrepresent the facts (More on this another day). (Related post: 10- 20% of voters are anti-PAP cybernuts.)

Here’s an interesting angle from 99.co which has no known or even alleged links to the PAP IB or the constructive, nation building media.

THE MERDEKA GENERATION PACKAGE WILL INDIRECTLY HELP WITH AFFORDABLE HOUSING

The Merdeka Generation Package will benefit some 500,000 Singaporeans, mostly from ages 60 to 69. Over S$6 billion will be channelled into outpatient treatment subsidies, Medisave top-ups, and CHAS coverage of chronic illnesses.

But how does this affect Singapore’s housing? One of the biggest contributors to our rising cost of living is healthcare. Singapore’s healthcare inflation is now the highest in the region, and it will grow as our population ages. Anything that mitigates the rising cost of living will indirectly affect our ability to afford housing.

We feel that, while most Singaporeans can afford their HDB flats, taking the strain off healthcare costs will affect the housing considerations of retirees, or those near retirement. It may now be possible for some of them to finish off outstanding home loans instead of downgrading, for example, given CHAS coverage of chronic conditions and greater outpatient subsidies.

https://www.99.co/blog/singapore/how-budget-2019-could-impact-property/?utm_source=homepage&utm_medium=featured_stories

Hmm. Not tot about this. Did you?

What the Merdeka Generation Package does

— makes healthcare more affordable

— makes then housing more affordable

— also lessens pain of weaker HDB prices (Double confirm, ground not sweet for PAP) for resale buyers

— vote buying i.e. spending more of our money on ourselves

— shows the PAP govt cares

Vote wisely.

Maybe that’s why Terry’s Online Channel has been praising the PAP govt — TOC now part of constructive, nation-building media? and Wah lan! TOC praises PAP govt?

But to be fair: Cybernuts can relax: TOC resumes normal anti-PAP service.

Fixing Sabo King minister

I refer to my Double confirm, ground not sweet for PAP (about the discrepancy between falling HDB resale prices, while private property prices keep inching up in an election yr) where I alsomumbled about how the PAP can make the ground sweeter.

This blog is a fan of of Lawrence Wong: Lawrence Wong: a PM-in-waiting.

But if the PM wants to make sure of a strong mandate for 4G leaders (Why PAP aiming for 65% of the popular vote), in addition to promising not to increase GST by two points (How PAP can win 65% plus of the vote), he should publicly sack Lawrence Wong just before campaigning for next GE begins. This should give HDB resale flat owners peace of mind: Sers will cover all expiring leases.

I’ll let the constructive, nation-building media explain why:

In March 2017, National Development Minister Lawrence Wong cautioned home buyers not to assume that all old HDB flats would automatically be eligible for the Selective En bloc Redevelopment Scheme (Sers).

“From what we hear from agents on the ground, in the past, when people buy older flats in a mature estate, the balance lease was not a top-of-the-mind concern,” said Ms Sun.

“But now, it seems like in almost every other deal, that would be the key question asked.”

Owners of old flats concerned about depreciation also tried to sell their apartments, leading to an increase in the supply of resale flats.

https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/hdb-resale-numbers-highest-2012-while-sales-private-homes-dive

No need yet

to promise big lease buyback amounts for old flats lorr. And allow more of the compensation to be withdrawable in cash apart from putting into CPF Life.

This would mean loosening the connection between LBS valuation and the ever-dropping actual market transactions.

Fat cat MD

Btw, cybernuts should realise that not coming from an elite school is no sign of competency: Lawrence Wong went to a neighbourhood school and then VJC, not even Hwa Chong or ACS.

 

 

Double confirm, ground not sweet for PAP

HDB resale prices go down, while private property prices go up.

Confirming flash estimates issued earlier this month*, the URA’s statistics showed that private home prices here soared 7.9 per cent last year as compared with an 1.1 per cent increase in 2017.

However, resale prices of HDB flats continued to dip, falling by 0.9 per cent last year, which was slightly lower than the 1.5 per cent decrease from 2017.

WHY THIS HAPPENED

Property experts pointed out that the disparity in price trends for HDB resale flats and private homes last year was an anomaly as prices for both tend to rise and fall in tandem.

They attributed this to collective sales fever heating up in late 2016 after the Government reduced supply in its biannual sales programme and land-hungry developers turned to en bloc projects to meet land demand.

Ms Christine Sun, head of research and consultancy at real estate firm OrangeTee & Tie, said that while en bloc fever typically triggers an upturn in the property market as a whole, the HDB market was not impacted “very much” last year largely due to increased awareness of the depreciating value of ageing HDB flats.

https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/hdb-resale-numbers-highest-2012-while-sales-private-homes-dive

So how to get strong mandate for 4G leaders (Why PAP aiming for 65% of the popular vote)? Tell you tom.

——————————————————————

*Will resale flat owners still vote for PAP in next GE? contd

 

 

TOC’s “Correspondent” shows that PAP govt really cares for S’poreans

In a story headlined

HDB extends LBS to 5-room and larger units as resale value of old flats continues to slide

TOC’s “Correspondent” inadvertently (He very anti-PAP and his mental health shows it: More evidence that being anti-PAP is bad for yr mental health) shows that PAP cares for those flat owners who have 5-roomers who don’t want to move if they need to downsize by extending the buy-back to five room flats.

In the media report, it quoted part-time security guard Tang Lum Sui, 68, a widower who lives alone in his Jalan Bahagia 5-room flat is all for the extended LBS.

“I don’t want to move out of Toa Payoh because I have lived here all my life, and I like that my son’s family (living in Qatar) can stay with me whenever they come back to Singapore,” he said. Mr Tang, whose flat has 67 years left on the lease, added, “As long as the terms are favourable, I will go for it.”

TOC’s writer (He is not one of the two Indian subversives propagating fake news: Why TOC’s Danisha Hakeem is a menace to the credibility of alt media) then goes further, implying that the leaseback could help if prices fall.

However, Mr Tang should be aware that the value of his 5-room flat is no longer as high as before.

But if he can use the buy-back scheme, why should he worry about falling prices? And even if prices fall so what? All depends on his entry price. As he’s 68, his entry price will be pretty low, assuming he BToed it.

Vote wisely.

 

 

 

 

Will resale flat owners still vote for PAP in next GE? contd

Last yr, private home prices rose nearly 8%* while prices of resale flats fell 0.9%**. (Related post: Why S’pore is so shiok for private property investors)

How to get huge mandate for 4G leaders remembering that one of them, Lawrence Wong*** (Btw, he not from elite school or so-called elite school), is being blamed by alt media (and more importantly by many S’poreans) for being responsible for the collapse in the prices of older flats?

Resale value of older flats has been sliding down ever since National Development Minister Lawrence Wong let the cat out of the bag in Mar 2017 by disclosing that not all old HDB flats are eligible for SER. He added that for most HDB flats, their leases will eventually run out and the flats returned to HDB, which in turn surrenders the land the flats are on back to the State. In other words, the value of the flats will go to zero when their lease ends.

TOC****

Will this resale flat buyer vote for PAP in next GE?

Will resale flat owners still vote for PAP in next GE?

“Houses are for living in, not for speculation”

Exposed: Flaws in PM’s HDB spin

Big problem for PAP. So why is it a surprise in an election yr that Budget is earlier than usual? Really good goodies to try to help us forget that after GE, GST will go up by 2 points as promised.

One can only hope that TOC and other alt media will keep reminding voters of this fact and stop propagating fake news: Why TOC’s Danisha Hakeem is a menace to the credibility of alt media. But don’t hold yr breath.

---

*Private home prices in Singapore rose 7.9 per cent in 2018, compared with a 1.1 per cent rise the year before, according to flash estimates from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) on Wednesday (Jan 2).

However, the rise appeared to have slowed significantly after the Government introduced more measures in July to cool the red-hot market.

Private home prices slowed to a 0.5 per cent increase in the third quarter of 2018, and fell 0.1 per cent in the fourth quarter, URA’s estimates showed.

Source: URA

Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/private-home-prices-property-2018-ura-11078890

**Prices of resale flats in Singapore fell 0.9 per cent in 2018 compared to the year before, flash estimates released by the Housing and Development Board (HDB) on Wednesday (Jan 2) showed.

In the fourth quarter of 2018 alone, prices fell an estimated 0.2 per cent, according to HDB’s resale price index.

Source: HDB

Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/hdb-resale-prices-fell-2018-bto-new-flats-11078892

***Lawrence Wong: a PM-in-waiting

****TOC

[A]ccording to PropertyGuru, housing agents have been trying to sell 5-room units in block 30 at Jalan Bahagia for close to $600K:

But the value of the units transacted at this block has been observed to be sliding down rapidly in the last few years.

Data on PropertyGuru shows that units at the block were indeed transacting at $500 to $600K from 2014 to mid-2016. But the last 2 transactions which occurred in Mar 2018, however, shows that one was sold at $403,000 while the other at $322,888.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ang moh’s great insight on property mkt

Absolutely right

[The] government is quick to intervene and manipulate the market when prices start to climb.

(Related post: Akan datang: GE in late 2019)

What Sarah Vaulkhard, adviser on the overseas desk at Property Vision wrote for FT

Singapore’s real estate market was pretty buoyant in the first half of 2018, with levels of transactions up, backed by high demand and good economic growth. However, as always, the government is quick to intervene and manipulate the market when prices start to climb, and in July it increased the additional buyers’ stamp duty and tightened the loan-to-value ratio.

Singapore will also feel the effects of the trade war between China and the US, as its economy relies heavily on the health of global trade. Interest rates are also likely to go up due to the fall in the Singapore dollar against the US dollar. For 2018, I warned of high levels of supply and this continues to be a real concern. The bounceback in Singapore’s real estate was short-lived and is likely to remain pretty stagnant into 2019.

Second para more accurate than the the headline and accompanying piece in constructive, nation-building CNA (Sometimes ang moh deserve to be tua kee)

Don’t expect Singapore’s private home prices to match growth of 2018: Experts

Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/private-home-prices-2019-outlook-growth-2018-11079606

 

Why Oxygen and other cybernuts are having orgasms this Christmas

They are always wishing ill to striving S’poreans, some of whom are having problems this Christmas, and so making Oz tax dodger Oxygen and his other cybernuts pals really very happy.

The number of properties put up for auction surged by almost 50 per cent this year compared with 2017, even as the number that successfully went under the hammer fell sharply.

There was a rush of listings in the final three months of this year, with more than a third put up in the fourth quarter, according to data released by property consultancy Knight Frank on Friday (Dec 21).

There were 1,120 properties put up for auction — the highest since 2011 — a 47.4 per cent increase from the 760 listings last year.

Out of the 1,120 listings, 41.9 per cent were residential properties, 22.9 per cent were retail units and 24.8 per cent industrial properties.

https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/properties-put-up-for-auction-surge-2018-knight-frank

But let’s be fair to these cybernuts. Only greedy PAP voters who are the cousins of cybernuts mortgage themselves to their eyebrows eyebrows and beyond.

Whatever, Merry Christmas to all.

And ensure a Prosperous New Year by voting wisely. And I don’t mean voting for Mad Dog, Lim Tean or Meng Seng.

Deluded Pine Court pigs still dreaming? They related to TRE cybernuts?

Further to PAP whacks greedy pigs even greedier pigs

two en bloc projects are raising their asking prices.

[…]

Pine Grove near Ulu Pandan Road also raised its price in October by S$140 million to S$1.86 billion, in a bid to secure a majority consensus needed to launch a public tender.

---

Back to 2011

They were gunning for S$2.17bn in 2011 but failed to get anyone to even smell. Analysts said at the time said S$1.3 bn to S$1.4 billion was doable. Details in Even greedier en-blockers

Now only dropping from S$2.17bn to S$1.86 bn.  They think developers more stupid then them is it? They had better realise that Old private flats’ value can also fall off a cliff.

But then they most probably have the same mental defect as TRE cybernuts such as tax dodging Oxygen, pork eating and alcohol drinking Bapak, cheap-skate BS artist Zhenzidan and always and lying rukidding. All cousins leh suffering from the belief that only they are right and everyone else is wrong. One group thinks that S’poreans will get rid of the PAP at the next GE, the other that their properties are worth a lot more than the mkt price. Both have been proven wrong, but persist in their beliefs.

---

The other deluded, greedy pigs?

Those living in

Mandarin Gardens along Siglap Road, for instance, upped its asking price by close to 12.5 per cent to S$2.79 billion in November, after finding out that the land parcel it sits on was undervalued.

Whatever

Analysts said raising the asking price would likely deter developers, especially for mega sites.

“Very often sellers are only interested in what they’ll be getting – that means the premium they’ll be getting – and omit the other costs developers will acquire for the plot of land,” Huttons’ Mr Lian explained.

“It’s not just the reserve price – it’s also the lease upgrading premiums, the differential premiums, the 5 per cent non-remittable ABSD (Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty) plus the 25 per cent remissible ABSD if they cannot sell all their units within the five-year period.”

Knight Frank’s Dr Lee said that some en bloc sellers may have a “loss aversion” mindset when it comes to selling their properties.

“Some of them may have probably bought them at quite high prices and are generally only willing to sell if prices are above a certain mark,” he added.

“In the case of Pine Grove and Mandarin Gardens, they may find their product is very unique and so they want to push up prices … But it might be a bit difficult because there are other options – many options – available in the market.”

Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/more-than-30-en-bloc-bids-fail-to-find-buyers-cooling-measures-11035028

They also don’t realise that there’s a trade war looming between China and US looming and we’ll suffer

Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) growth fell more than expected in November with shipments to most of its major trading partners declining, official data showed on Monday (Dec 17).

Exports fell 2.6 per cent in November year-on-year, data from the trade agency International Enterprise Singapore showed, falling sharply from the revised 8.2 per cent rise the month before.

This was weaker than the 1.2 per cent increase predicted by economists in a Reuters poll.

On a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis, exports contracted 4.2 per cent in November after growing 4.2 per cent in October. The poll predicted a 0.6 per cent expansion from the month before.

Trade to top markets like China, Indonesia and Europe declined. Exports to China fell 16 per cent in November from a year earlier, compared with the previous month’s 25.8 per cent decline.

Electronics exports rose 4.5 per cent in November from the year earlier, recovering from the 3.6 per cent contraction seen in October.

https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/singapore-november-exports-fall-faster-expected

(Related post: PAP needs strong Chinese economic growth)

But then they most probably have the same mental defect as TRE cybernuts such as tax dodging Oxygen, pork eating and alcohol drinking Bapak, cheap-skate BS artist Zhenzidan and always lying rukidding. All cousins leh suffering from the belief that only they are right and everyone else is wrong. One group thinks that S’poreans will get rid of the PAP at the next GE, the other that their properties are worth a lot more than the mkt price. Both have been proven wrong, but persist in their beliefs.

---

 

PAP whacks greedy pigs

Funny anti-PAP types not cheering PAP for making life difficulty for private property owners. But then these anti-PAP types especially the cybernuts from TRE and TOC Lands think that the PAP and private property owners must be hated, and got rid off.

More than 30 collective sales sites have failed to find successful bidders at the close of tender, following the latest round of cooling measures introduced in July.

In a bid to entice developers, around 15 en bloc projects have sought to lower their asking prices, according to Huttons Asia.

One of them is Park View Mansions in Jurong, which relaunched its tender for a second time on Wednesday (Dec 12) at an asking price of S$250 million – 22 per cent lower than its initial asking price earlier this year.

Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/more-than-30-en-bloc-bids-fail-to-find-buyers-cooling-measures-11035028

Wah lan BTO waiting period is six yrs?

Angela Oh, 29, bought her new four-room HDB with the man who is now her husband in 2012 and just moved in this year. The system allows partners to put their names down for new flats, but you must be married by the time it is built.

“The long time that BTOs (Built to Order) take to build really spoils the joy of the proposal,” she says, because marriage becomes about practicality. If you break up during the waiting period, you lose money and are barred from applying for another BTO for a year.

http://www.bbc.com/capital/story/20181210-can-singapores-social-housing-keep-up-with-changing-times?fbclid=IwAR2fzGTXxtmVykT1tgqRlvXQkYIFUU_m5yMDHfP9_ze1Eu37-KtRIfAP52s

But I also read this:

1,000 BTO Flats with Shorter Waiting Times to be Offered in 2018

To help young couples get their first homes earlier, HDB will be offering BTO flats with shorter waiting times in selected projects.

The first batch of 1,000 flats, spread across three projects in the non-mature estates of Sembawang, Sengkang and Yishun, will be launched for sale in the 2^nd half of 2018.

The first batch of flats with shorter waiting times will launch in Sembawang, Sengkang and Yishun in the 2^nd half of 2018.

Construction will not be rushed to meet the shorter wait times. Instead, HDB will commence construction of the flats ahead of their sales launches. Construction work on the three projects is expected to commence in the 4^th quarter of 2017. The flats will be completed between the 4^th quarter of 2020 and the 1^st quarter of 2021.

As a result, flat buyers only need to wait about 2.5 years for their flat from the time of application. There will be no compromise on the quality of the flats since construction time remains the same, at three to four years.

First-timer families will have another reason to rejoice as they will enjoy higher priority when applying for these flats. At least 95% of the 4-room and larger flats are set aside for them, which is a 10% increase from the current 85% quota for non-mature estates.

Flat buyers of these BTO projects can look forward to flats equipped with floor finishes, internal doors, sanitary fittings, and an open kitchen concept (if the layout permits). This will reduce the time needed for renovation so that they can move into their new homes earlier.

Look out for the sales launches of these BTO projects in the second half of 2018! For more information, visit the HDB InfoWEB at www.hdb.gov.sg.

https://www.mnd.gov.sg/mndlink/2017/sep-oct/bto-flats-with-shorter-waiting-times.htm

So waz a realistic median BTO waiting period today?

“Houses are for living in, not for speculation”

Of course not PAP: but Grandpa Xi.

And it’s a statement that the PAP and voters should remember. While a lot of the KPKBing about the price falls in older HDB flats is coming from the usual suspects like P(olitician) Ravi, the SDP (Note the silence of the Wankers: Low, Auntie and Bayee got condos waiting to be seized when they lose court case), and the cybernuts, bet u there were greedy PAP voters didn’t know that a 99-yr lease is juz that and are suffering in silence.

They heard “asset appreciation” and bought resale flats.

Will this resale flat buyer vote for PAP in next GE?

“I bought in the resale market when the prices were quite high some years back,” said Jun Liang, 42, whose apartment is in a 55-year-old block called Selegie House. “When I look at the value now, it would not have appreciated — in fact, after renovation costs it could even be a small loss.”

[…]

Home-owner Jun and his wife bought their apartment in one of the oldest HDB blocks in 2013 after getting married, spending about S$700,000 on the property and another S$100,000 to renovate. Now, they have thoughts of upgrading to a private condo. But, looking at their budget, the couple wonder if they’ve any chance of getting the home they want.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-25/singapore-s-public-housing-envy-of-the-world-hits-rough-patch

I think he’s deluded about a small loss taking into account renovation costs. Remember prices for flats like his took a dive after Lawrence Wong’s warning about the govt taking back the land when the leasehold expires: Why 30-year old HDB flats difficult to sell.

And it’s going to get worse. 🤑🤣😛😢😪😂😝😜

Fat cat medical doctor/ investor quantified the loss

The flats in Selegie House are the small types. The one in question probably a 806sqft 4-rm flat.

If really need to sell today, unlikely to get serious offers much above $500K. Buyers will need big chunks of cash onhand to pay.

Even if SERS, the compensation by HDB based on market valuations will be a big % loss of what he paid, and certainly not enough to buy any replacement new 4-rm flat in city centre area, even if its a subsidized BTO as part of SERS package.

If there’s SERS, HDB might offer them BTO replacement flats in a slightly cheaper district such as Kallang River / Mountbatten area. This was what they did for the Rocher Centre residents when it got torn down for the N-S Highway.

.

Why S’pore is so shiok for private property investors

Look at the table and note that here holding costs (i.e. interest paid) for 5 yrs (assumes no profit from sale after 5 yrs) and fees payable (taxes, duties) very low compared to rest of the world bar a shithole of a city. The PAP govt treats private property investors better than they treat otters (TRE Cybernut says PAP has created paradise for otters not citizens)? $ means US$.

Waz there not to like about the PAP if u are an investor in private property?

Compare this to if u bot a resale HDB flat: Will resale flat owners still vote for PAP in next GE? and Will this resale flat buyer vote for PAP in next GE?

Will this resale flat buyer vote for PAP in next GE?

After reading this post, tell me if you think Jun Liang, the resale flat buyer, will vote for the PAP in the next GE.

Further to Will resale flat owners still vote for PAP in next GE? where I reported that the value of the homes has been falling even as prices of private dwellings rebounded over the past five quarters, leading to a 13.8 points gap in their price performance, the widest in more than a decade. Private home prices rose 0.5% in the third quarter, after climbing 3.4% in the previous three months here’s a really sad story

🤑🤣😛😢😪😂😝😜

“I bought in the resale market when the prices were quite high some years back,” said Jun Liang, 42, whose apartment is in a 55-year-old block called Selegie House. “When I look at the value now, it would not have appreciated — in fact, after renovation costs it could even be a small loss.”

[…]

Home-owner Jun and his wife bought their apartment in one of the oldest HDB blocks in 2013 after getting married, spending about S$700,000 on the property and another S$100,000 to renovate. Now, they have thoughts of upgrading to a private condo. But, looking at their budget, the couple wonder if they’ve any chance of getting the home they want.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-25/singapore-s-public-housing-envy-of-the-world-hits-rough-patch

I think he’s deluded about a small loss taking into account renovation costs. Remember prices for flats like his took a dive after Lawrence Wong’s warning about the govt taking back the land when the leasehold expires: Why 30-year old HDB flats difficult to sell.

And it’s going to get worse. 🤑🤣😛😢😪😂😝😜

Nicholas Mak, executive director and head of research at real estate firm ZACD Group said:

HDB resale prices may fall 1 percent to 2 percent this year, according to Mak.  In the long term, besides undermining public sentiment, declines could threaten demand for private housing, since fewer people will feel wealthy enough to upgrade to condominiums, according to Cushman & Wakefield Inc.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-25/singapore-s-public-housing-envy-of-the-world-hits-rough-patch

Who asked Jun Liang and his wife to believe PM and his ministers on asset values? Exposed: Flaws in PM’s HDB spin 

🤑🤣😛😢😪😂😝😜

And Jun Liang should also worry about the trade war between China and Trump because a slow down in China is terrible for us: we more affected than the rest of Asean:  PAP needs strong Chinese economic growth.

Will resale flat owners still vote for PAP in next GE?

🤑🤣😛😢😪😂😝😜

Resale prices for HDB flats have been on the decline over the last year. Prices fell 0.7 per cent in the third quarter of 2017, 0.2 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2017 and 0.8 per cent in the first quarter of this year, although they inched up 0.1 per cent in the second quarter.

Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/hdb-resale-transactions-up-19-in-q3-as-prices-remain-flat-10865850

🤑🤣😛😢😪😂😝😜

Whatever happened to “asset enhancement”? Exposed: Flaws in PM’s HDB spin 

And Why 30-year old HDB flats difficult to sell/ Why PAP rule will end in 2029

No guesses about why S’poreans are so unhappy that they donated to WP MPs  (How to protest effectively when there’s no GE).

Why private property owners appreciate the PAP

Especially if they are still mortgaged to their eyeballs.

S’pore’s NOT among the global cities that have the highest risk of seeing their property values collapse. We are not even on the “overvalued” list. We are on the “juz right” list.

The cities seeing the highest risk of seeing their property values collapse are HK, Munich, Toronto, Vancouver, Amsterdam and London, says UBS’s latest Global Real Estate Bubble Index.

Milan, S’pore and Boston are “fairly valued”. Ten cities including NY, Sydney and Stockholm are overvalued. Chicago is the only undervalued housing market in the 20-city index.

Still want to vote against the PAP?

Related post: Akan datang: GE in late 2019

First signal: the PAP govt ended the property cycle upswing early. If things had been allowed to run their usual course, we’d have rising property prices in 2019, if not 2020.

The real reason why HDB flats are a touchy topic

Other than the fact that S’poreans have realised or discovered that HDB flats are 99-yr leases not freehold (They read what they agreed to buy? Exposed: Flaws in PM’s HDB spin) the other major headache for the PAP govt in public housing is that housing (private or public) seems to be more about psychological rather than material needs.

In the US and UK

Our space expectations are conditioned not only by where we have lived before, but also by our neighbours.

Because house size is a status symbol, we feel worse off when other people get larger houses.

A recent US study found that an increase in the size of the largest 10% of “superstar” houses had a significant negative effect on their neighbours, even if those people had also moved to bigger homes.

Previous surveys have suggested people would be prepared to have less living space overall if it meant they had more than others.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45420795

Given that more than 80% of Singapore’s population live in HDB flats, no wonder the PAP govt now wants to kick the expiring lease issue into the really long grass.

Exposed: Flaws in PM’s HDB spin

Smell the smoke? From Indonesia or from the PAP & cybernuts?

Think Tun can bring democracy to S’pore? Ponder this

He’s very authoritarian and arbitrary when it comes to dealing with us slit eyes.

Chinese owners getting flat keys but Tun says “No” to moving in: PRC’s flat is not his flat.

Liang Ri Sheng’s family will be one of the first 482 PRC families to get the keys to their Forest City apartments by September. He was planning to have his son stay there so that the boy study in a nearby int’l school.

Now

“One thing is certain, that city that is going to be built cannot be sold to foreigners,” Mahathir said at a news conference on Monday in Kuala Lumpur in response to a question from Reuters. “We are not going to give visas for people to come and live here.”

Another PRC is whistling in the dark

Another buyer, Jackie Chan (not related to the actor of the same name), who bought an apartment in Forest City last year for around $140,000, said he hadn’t expected such a twist.

“When I bought it I was betting on long-term appreciation and didn’t expect there would be such a policy risk. But I’m not aiming for their immigration visa so there’s no impact for me. The investment amount is small so I’m just going to keep it as a vacation home,” said Chan, who lives in Hong Kong.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-forest-city-development/mahathir-takes-aim-at-country-gardens-giant-development-in-southern-malaysia-idUSKCN1LC0KX

Like real. Can believe or not this PRC.

 

Typical product of our education system?

Re “Every school a good school”.

Mr Low Mong Seng, 34, worried that the compensation under Vers may not allow flat owners to purchase a flat of a comparable size. This would be a problem for bigger households, said the swim coach, whose three-room flat in Block 95, Lorong 4 Toa Payoh, has less than 50 years left on its lease.

Hello, don’t people grow up, move out or die? All the residents never marry or die isit? The number of the people remain static isit?

And the issue of how much will a similar flat will cost is always present when selling out of the existing flat. 

As a FB post once put it

My parents bought the flat in 1978 for $19,000. It was fully paid for within a few years. Some time back, a property agent approached me and asked me to sell the flat, saying that I can get $420, 000 for it. I rejected because where are my parents and I going to stay if I sell. How much will a similar flat cost me if I buy a resale?

But to be fair to our education system, Mr Low could best be either die die support PAP heartlander or a cybernut from the hearlands of The Idiots or TOC or TRE. They are beyond help.

Exposed: Flaws in PM’s HDB spin

From a TRE reader

In his NDR speech, PM Loong gave an example of his AMK 4-rm residents, trumpeting how their flats can now fetch $400k when they’ve paid only $25k for their units 40 years ago.

Yes, no one will argue about this fact. First owners of HDB flats were able to make a huge profit from their flats purchased decades ago. This is possible only because they bought their flats cheap.

Leong Piah Mann

Yup, it was all about getting in at a great level and riding the Pacific wave.

But now

Govt ‘smartly’ pegged BTO flats to HDB resale price. Resale price is based on the flat’s valuation price. Owners were given high valuation for their units (and you know who valued your HDB and they BS you it’s about demand that your flat cost that much), so resale price kept heading skyward and BTO price follow suit to the delight of the greedy govt.

Entry point is “rigged”. So how to make money?

And what about the sucker buyer?

When PM Loong bragged about how much profit a AMK 4-rm flat first owner can make from selling his flat, PM made himself look so excellent, like a grade A, top notch leader, but he conveniently forgot to mention about the buyer of that resale flat. After paying $400k for an almost 40yrs old flat, how much will the buyer be able to sell his flat for as it continues to age and ending up as govt’s eventually?

Sorry jialat. Liddat why vote PAP so that $$G ministers also can be “Crazy Rich Asians”?

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Related posts:

The real truths about public housing  my summary of piece by “Tan Jin Meng, a postgraduate from the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy. He has an interest in social policy and economics.”.

Why many PAP voters are ready to be flipped

New Hope: Why Dr Tambyah can flip PAP voters

——————————————————————————————————–

Leong Piah Mann’s comments in full

A Layman’s View On The Hot HDB Issue

I think people should stop arguing about whether we’re “owners” or “lessees” of HDB flats because the PAP and their lackeys can always defend the govt using all kinds of crooked logics. Fact remains, our HDB flats will belong to the govt after 99 yrs.

In his NDR speech, PM Loong gave an example of his AMK 4-rm residents, trumpeting how their flats can now fetch $400k when they’ve paid only $25k for their units 40 years ago.

Yes, no one will argue about this fact. First owners of HDB flats were able to make a huge profit from their flats purchased decades ago. This is possible only because they bought their flats cheap. This is possible only because our govt 40 yrs ago was genuinely caring. This is possible only because our 1G leaders’ main intention of building public housing was to let citizens have a roof over our heads. The Old Guards weren’t greedy. They didn’t price the HDB flats with the intention to make big profit from citizens or to let citizens make profits from their flats. More importantly, they never buy votes using the HDB flats upgrading or asset enhancement policy as election carrots.

As we can see, the situation now is no longer the same. The present govt has become too greedy that their greed has resulted in our  public housing (amongst others) becoming so costly, in fact too costly!

Govt ‘smartly’ pegged BTO flats to HDB resale price. Resale price is based on the flat’s valuation price. Owners were given high valuation for their units (and you know who valued your HDB and they BS you it’s about demand that your flat cost that much), so resale price kept heading skyward and BTO price follow suit to the delight of the greedy govt.

When PM Loong bragged about how much profit a AMK 4-rm flat first owner can make from selling his flat, PM made himself look so excellent, like a grade A, top notch leader, but he conveniently forgot to mention about the buyer of that resale flat. After paying $400k for an almost 40yrs old flat, how much will the buyer be able to sell his flat for as it continues to age and ending up as govt’s eventually?

Mr Owner is lucky and happy but what about Mr Buyer? If VERS is real, how much will the govt compensate Mr Buyer in 30 yrs’ time? For sure he’s going to make a loss. And what if VERS is just an invincible election carrot? If Mr Buyer is 30 yrs old, by the time he’s 89 yrs old, his $400k would go up in smoke. Why didn’t PM Loong talk about Mr Buyer? Don’t tell me getting paid millions of dollars cannot even foresee such an obvious problem?

I’d definitely applaud the govt if Mr Owner is allowed to sell his flat back to govt at the market value of $400k. Then the govt sells that flat to Mr Buyer at $400k but renew the lease to 99 yrs.

Did the govt not plan to have HIP II? They can even have HIP III and HIP IV to keep the flats in good conditions. Continuous upgrading whenever necessary for our future generations to live in, is this not also being fair to our descendants? If there really is a must to tear down any blocks of flats due to safety reasons, then compensate the residents accordingly with SERS.

Our children and grandchildren are our future generations. Families are getting very small these days. Our children can inherit our old flats and continue to live in them. If our govt genuinely cares and thinks for the people, there’s really no need for all our flats to
go back to the state for the govt to redevelop the land and build new flats.

We first heard that CPF money is not our money. Now we realised our HDB flats will not be our flats eventually. What next?

Apparently the scariest thieves in sg wear white not black. So, Singaporeans beware! Please stop inviting thieves into our house and allow them to freely steal our belongings anymore.

Leong Piah Mann

Akan datang: GE in late 2019

Singapore’s next parliamentary general election must be held by 15 January 2021. According to the Constitution, the Parliament of Singapore’s maximum term is five years from the date of the first sitting of Parliament following a general election, after which it is dissolved by operation of law.

Next Singaporean general election – Wikipedia

So far the PAP has signaled trice in recent months that an election will be held in late 2019 or early 2020, after the 200th anniversary of Raffles making S’pore British is co-opted by the PAP to propogandise the benefits of PAP rule, (like the 50th anniversary of getting kicked out of M’sia was co-opted in 2015).

First signal: the PAP govt ended the property cycle upswing early. If things had been allowed to run their usual course, we’d have rising property prices in 2019, if not 2020.

With less than a third of collective sale sites sold so far this year and no deal inked since property cooling measures took effect more than a month ago, one property analyst has declared the current cycle of en bloc fever to be over.

More than 30 collective sale sites have failed to secure a buyer since January, according to data from real estate agencies Huttons Asia, Savills and Colliers.

[…]

“This cycle has reached its end,” said International Property Advisor’s chief executive Ku Swee Yong.

If that is the case, the current cycle would have lasted about two years – If that is the case, the current cycle would have lasted about two years – beginning with the sale of former Housing and Urban Development Company (HUDC) estate Shunfu Ville – shorter than the three-year run that lasted between 2005 and 2007, he said.

https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/more-30-en-bloc-tenders-closed-without-buyer-year-none-successful-after-july-cooling

Rising property prices in 2019 would have been problematic for early elections.

Second signal: goodies for my generation

Just as Singaporeans born in 1949 or earlier received the Pioneer Generation Package to cope with healthcare and other expenses, baby boomers born in the 1950s will receive help from the Government.

Called the Merdeka Generation Package, it will cover areas such as outpatient subsidies, Medisave account top-ups, MediShield Life premium subsidies and payouts for long-term care, announced Prime Minister Lee Hsien at the National Day Rally on Sunday (Aug 19).

Third signal: kicking problem of expiring HDB leases (Why 30-year old HDB flats difficult to sell/ Why PAP rule will end in 2029) into the long grass while details will be worked out in the next 20 yrs or so (Taz how confident PAP is of ruling S’pore)

With Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s speech, the Government has laid out a “visible” programme for Housing and Development Board (HDB) flat owners for the future of their homes, said CIMB economist Song Seng Wun, who added that public housing has been the backbone of Singapore’s wealth creation.

Vers, which Mr Lee said would start about 20 years from now, will see residents of precincts that are about 70 years into their 99-year leases voting on whether they would like the Government to buy back the flats. The Government will compensate them — at terms less generous than the Selective Enbloc Redevelopment Scheme (Sers), which is compulsory — and help them get another flat to live in.

https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/devils-details-flat-owners-should-not-expect-windfall-new-hdb-scheme-analysts

I hope that the Oppo is better prepared this time to handle the PAP’s handouts of goodies. This was written in Sept 2012: Time for Opposition to rethink assumptions, lest it repents after next GE. But the Oppo fought GE 2015 as though it was GE 2006 and 2011 again. The result PAP got 70% of the popular vote. Of course LKY’s death and the 50th anniversary of independence celebrations helped.

One thing is sure, talk cock sing song Lim Tean is sure to make another video. Which reminds me: if he can make videos of himself talking cock, why can’t he produce the video on how to avoid getting sued for defamation he promised for Sept, then Nov 2017 after raising the money for it? Remind Lim Tean, it’s December

 

Value of UK listco’s S’pore property = Mkt cap

A UK listco has its S’pore property to thank for saving it

The Singapore property was bought as Laura Ashley’s Asia headquarters and will be sold for £30.4m, not far off the group’s £31m market capitalisation.

FT

 

Shares to buy?

Supermarket chain Sheng Siong, ground-services provider SATS, ComfortDelgro, SIA Engineering and ST Engineering say DBS. Can’t argue with these at this time, especially the TLCs and the GLC.

With a host of risk factors, including fresh trade-related jitters, threatening to cause more pain for local equities, analysts say it’s time for investors to seek shelter in defensive plays.

“We advocate investors to reposition into defensive stocks, using the rebound in July to pare exposure to cyclical names,” said DBS Group Research analysts Yeo Kee Yan and Janice Chua.

These will be stocks that are not closely linked to the economic cycle, while having a healthy level of cash, decent growth of about 5 per cent ahead and a consistent and satisfactory level ofdividend payouts.

But buying Reits? Taz another analyst suggesting.

Now I’m still up to my eyeballs in Reits. But even I consider them higher risk stuff because they pay out most of their income. Btw, I’ve never been into retail Reits.

 

Time to investigate if housing developers screw public by colluding?

“Unsold number of private properties hit 3-year high as prices continue to rise” screamed headline from a department of the constructive nation-building media.

Bit strange that prices go up when there’s plenty of unsold stock. Shumething not right.

Then this caught my attention (emphasis mine)

Ms Christine Li, senior director of research at real-estate services firm Cushman & Wakefield, attributed the three-year high of unsold numbers of private housing units to the likelihood that developers are spacing out their launches, to avoid direct competitions from nearby projects due to the increased supply.

https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/private-home-prices-climbed-34-second-quarter-2018

Time for the Competition and Consumer Commission of Singapore to investigate if there is illegal collusion or other illegal practices among developers that cause housing prices to be higher than if there were no collusion etc. They juz squeezed Grab’s balls,

S’poreans and mainlanders are the real Chinese

Honkies and Taiwanese are not,

We and mainlanders don’t believe in renting short term (99 yr leases are not short term rental leases no matter what Goh Meng Seng and other cybernuts think)

Property: Why govt was right to act

This chart from Bloomberg article tells it all. The gradual decline between late mid 2013 and mid 2017 had reversed very, very sharply before the latest curbs were anounced. Lawrence Wong for PM: Lawrence Wong: a PM-in-waiting

 

 

The enbloc sales had a lot to do with this the surge in prices.

 

 

 

 

And it’s ownself buying ownself.

 

 

 

Great if my bank offers this service

In early June, the govt released the Digital Readiness Blueprint to help every Singaporean navigate a digital future of cashless payments and other innovations.

Great if my bank, HSBC, offers this service

For people looking to buy or sell a home, it offers to research neighbourhoods, move furniture, remove garbage, paint a house and even decide which bins to take out each week.

FT

Here’s what RBC, a Canadian bank, is attempting to do

RBC aims to offer more end-to-end services — or “ecosystems” — covering wider customer needs than only financial, such as when they want to start their own business, sell their house, or find a new car. For instance, the bank is offering a service for entrepreneurs to register their start-up company with the government, provide it with cloud-based accounting software, supply a branding service and send it letterheads and business cards, all before it has lent the company a cent. For people looking to buy or sell a home, it offers to research neighbourhoods, move furniture, remove garbage, paint a house and even decide which bins to take out each week. Many of these services are supplied by partners integrated into RBC’s digital platform.

FT

 

 

The real truths about public housing

Not Hard Truths but the truths about public housing as revealed by “Tan Jin Meng, a postgraduate from the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy. He has an interest in social policy and economics.”.

But first, a reminder why the topic of HDB housing is a problem for the PAP administration what with its “asset enhancement” policies.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Whatever happened to asset enhancement since 2013 Q2 is a question being asked by more than the anti-PAP activists and their allied cybernuts.

Back to Tan Jin Meng and his truths about HDB: writing in CNA he says

An over-emphasis on home ownership can come at a cost to society. Time for a review of public housing policy

And

Singapore’s housing policy started out with the aim of providing basic, comfortable and safe housing security for Singaporeans. Over the decades, strong public policy support may have led to an over-emphasis on housing ownership, leading to unintended consequences …

Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/commentary/emphasis-home-ownership-hdb-lease-review-of-public-housing-10423116.

But if time-challenged juz read these two extracts

The first explains that the PAP administration has by way of subsidies (Uncle Leong and cybernuts will ask though “Subsidies? What subsidies?”) created an entitlement mentality in public housing:

Addressing the 99-year leasehold issue or the retirement security issue without a cost to the home owner would effectively need a cross subsidy from future tax payers.

Any changes to housing policy that impact prices would need to consider the fact that most voting Singaporeans have a vested interest in keeping house prices up.

The continuous subsidy of housing in Singapore has been underpinned by the Land Acquisition Act of 1966, which had used historical cost for acquiring land, managing to keep new HDB flat prices low. In 1959, the State owned 44 per cent of all land, and by the mid-2000s, it was 85 per cent.

Effectively, the Government redistributed land wealth from land owners to the rest of the population, aided by a growing economy supporting prices. This, however, cannot continue forever as housing leases start to run out, our economy slows, and our population ages.

The Government had, over the decades since independence, resisted calls to liberally expand the social safety net, in order to avoid the development of an entitlement culture – that once you give someone something, you cannot easily take it back without antagonising that person, and you may end up with an intolerable burden for future generations.

Yet, housing remains one social programme where much resources have been poured into.

The other very important truth is

A house is not just a shelter. It is also a leveraged financial asset. You are taking risk on both property prices and interest rates. Singapore’s rapid growth over the first 50 years from independence has led many people to believe that home ownership is a “sure win”, as house prices also rose from wage and population growth.

Sounds like the “asset enhancement” policies got a lot to answer for, and so has our PM who was DPM and the economy czar in the 90s, when the policies were introduced to fix the Oppo.

“Asset enhancement? What asset enhancement?”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Only if buy BTO flat leh, PAP will say. Go back and read what the PM, DPM and other PAP ministers said.

Wonder if our our constructive, nation-building media’s articles from the 1990s are as amendable as the media articles in Airstrip One in “1984”.

PAP definition of Middle Class?

An older managing director at a large bank complained of the struggles of the middle class. When I asked him to define “middle class,” he spoke of people like him, earning between two and four million dollars a year. Young analysts told me they were being priced out of Brooklyn, much less Manhattan, by rising hedge-fund plutocrats and their ilk.

New York based writer

Somehow, I tot of the PAP’s reasoning for the need to pay ex-SAF generals and ex-civil servants millions when they become ministers.

For some reason I tot about the PAP’s changing definition of affordability for HDB flats. Once upon a time it took only up to 10 yrs (Correct me if I’m wrong) to pay off the mortgage, now

The maximum loan repayment period is 30 years *. The maximum loan repayment period for HDB loans is 65 years minus buyer’s age or 30 years, whichever is shorter. The maximum loan repayment period for loans taken through financial institutions is 35 years.

https://www.cpf.gov.sg/eSvc/Web/Schemes/FirstHome/Assumptions

Sad.

Note: Text after quote changedtwo hrs after publication. Sorry, “Writer’s block”.

 

 

TOC saying vote PAP?

I kid u not, Terry’s Online Channel has a gd word for the PAP govt and one of its flagship programmes.

This is what TOC wrote

S$1 million will easily cover the cost of most new and resale HDB flats in Singapore. The median price of HDB resale flats in every neighborhood is below S$1,000,000, so prospective homebuyers could afford a comfortable residence in even the most expensive areas of Singapore.

For example, the median resale price of a 4-room HDB even in Central was S$850,000 in the early months of 2018.

And

S$1 Million is Not Enough to Afford Most Homes in Many Major International Cities

Both quotes from https://www.theonlinecitizen.com/2018/06/09/what-kind-of-home-would-s1-million-buy-in-major-cities-around-the-world/

Is TOC getting paid to say nice things about the PAP govt? One of TOC’s grouses is that mothership gets sponsorship from GLCs. So has TOC saold its soul too?

Btw, the writer is the only numerate person in TOC’s stable of writers and editors.

 

Falling HDB prices: Mad Dog, Meng Seng etc don’t count yr chickens yet

Private property mkt is going thru the roof

The Republic confirmed its biggest quarterly surge in private home prices in nearly eight years on Friday (April 27) — a 3.9 per cent jump that beat an earlier estimate of 3.1 per cent, data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) showed.

This is the highest quarterly price growth since the 5.3 per cent quarter-on-quarter increase in the second quarter of 2010.  In comparison, prices of private residential properties rose 0.8 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year over the previous quarter.

Ms Tricia Song, Colliers International head of research for Singapore, noted that it was “rare to see such a wide variance between the actual and flash numbers”. Flash estimates are based on data from the first two months of the quarter.

Constructive  T

while the Housing and Development Board (HDB) resale market has experienced a contrasting fortune compared to the private with the HDB resale price index contracting by 0.8%  for January to March.

Analysts have said that the increase in housing grants, shorter waiting time for Build-To-Order flats in certain housing estates, a strong supply of new public housing units, and the Government’s pronouncement that it will not renew the leases of HDB flats when they run out are some of the factors pushing down HDB resale prices.

So Mad Dog, Meng Seng, Lim Tean (Collect money from public but Where’s yr defamation video and jobs rally Lim Tean?) and other cybernuts (active or paper) are celebrating the defeat of the PAP in next GE.

But they did not read the ending

In the next quarters, HDB resale prices are expected to eventually rebound, the analysts said.

Given the huge number of en bloc sales since last year, Mr Ismail predicts “a greater demand for HDB resale properties with some en bloc owners considering bigger sized resale flats in the second half of the year”.

For the full year, the analysts said they expect HDB resale prices to be flat or grow by up to 1 per cent.

Not as gd as private property but then GE will not be held next year but the year after: after Raffles200. There’ll be goodies galore for HDB flat owners, trust me.

As to Goh Meng Seng’s BS that he’ll reveal his plan to solve the 99-yr HDB lease “problem” during next GE campaign, he shouldn’t waste his time BSing us. The PAP administration can solve the problem with a stroke of the pen. But will it is the question? More on what PAP administration can do soon.

If Coldstore detainees had gained power

This would have happened when HDB overbuilt

To reduce the property overhang, local governments bought millions of unsold homes from developers and gave them to poorer citizens.

Economist talking about local Chinese govt

Actually, not exactly because as HDB is a govt agency, the flats would have just been given away.

Thankfully for property investors, Coldstore was successful in preventing the whackos from gaining power.

Estate agents so stupid and selfish meh?

Mr and Mrs Ow should lose their licences because they are so stupid that they didn’t know that the shorter time left on any lease, the value of flat goes down. (HDB flats: 35 is a dangerous age and Why 30-year old HDB flats difficult to sell/ Why PAP rule will end in 2029)

I am very concerned if property agents who are suppose to be advising their clients personally had such an unrealistic idea that prices of HDB flats would rise forever that they thought it prudent to pay $580k for a 5-rm HDB flat that was already 35 years old at the time of their purchase.

ST also highlighted another case of HDB owner trapped in buying old HDB flats.

It featured a property agent, Janet Ow, who bought her 5-room flat with her husband, also a property agent, in the old estate of Telok Blangah. They bought the flat at $580,000 some 8 years ago in 2010. Currently, their old flat has just got 56 years left on its lease.

In 2016, they started marketing their flat at $680,000 to $690,000 hoping to make at least a $100K. Bids came in at $620,000 and $630,000 but now offers have also dried up. For more than a year now, they couldn’t sell their flat.

“Those who called asked about the balance of my lease first,” Ms Ow said. “The flat’s age has now become a main concern after National Development Minister Lawrence Wong’s reminder in March last year.”

“Upon knowing the age, sometimes they won’t even proceed with viewings. In 2016, when we put up an ad, we would get around 10 calls. Now, we don’t even get a single call for one to two weeks,” she added.

“If I don’t sell now and prices keep dropping, I will be making losses on my flat eventually.”

Ms Ow and her husband are hoping to sell their flat quickly so that they could get a condo with a fresh lease.

“At least we know we have a long lease ahead of us and can cash out,” she said. “We don’t want another HDB resale flat because the ageing lease problem will crop up again.”

…

In any case, at the moment, Ms Ow said she feels “insecure about the future”.

https://www.theonlinecitizen.com/2018/04/15/owner-sells-3-room-hdb-for-15-less-after-wongs-comment-about-zero-value-of-expired-flats/

Another reason they should lose their licences is that to help her and her hubbie out of their stupidity, they want the govt to screw other S’poreans

Ms Ow said, “Perhaps HDB could look into allowing buyers of flats with less than 60 years left on the lease to utilise their CPF fully (ie, 100%) instead of partially.”

“That will help to alleviate the worry of having to pay cash for part of the purchase. This will help buyers who need to buy flats in an oder estate to be near their parents who may be there,” she added.

Err that means those who use 100% of his or her CPF savings to buy such older flats will not have enough to retire on later because of the near-zero value of the flat.

Robbing blur Peter to pay stupid, s3elfish Pauline isit?

 

Why en-blocers could be in for a nasty surprise

As could all other property speculators and developers and their banks financing them.

They shouldn’t be counting their chickens before they hatch.

If the phoney war between China and the US becomes a real trade war, we’ll be caught in the middle. We are part of China’s great export machine that Trump wants to destroy: see how much as % of GDP do our exports add value to China’s exports to the US.

 

S’pore among top 10 countries owning English properties

Property: Americans and S’poreans alike

In SIBOR up 25%, but property mkt is hot?, I pointed at riasing interest rates do not deter S’poreans from being bullish about property.

Seems the same is true in the US too. And maybe S’porean buyers are thinking like the American buyers.

Mickey Levy of Berenberg, who also offers this detail from the Michigan [Consumer Confidence] survey, widely followed by economists etc. More than half of Americans feel that their own household is better off than it was a year ago – the first time that has been true in too long:t appears that many people are taking rising interest rates as a reason to go out and buy a house now, before rates go up further. Mickey’s conclusion:

In the last year, we have emphasized that when confidence measures are among the highest of all of their historic readings—both on the consumer and business surveys—we find that they are reliable predictors of future consumer spending and business investment.  Accordingly, we take note of this strong University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index that was conducted during the abrupt stock market sell off.  If other surveys that mirror confidence also hold up, that would confirm our expectations that the economy is continuing to build momentum.

FT

Emphasis mine.

Why our housing valuations look decent?

I was fooling around with this https://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2018/02/daily-chart-5 and among other things compared S’pore property valuations with that of HK. Something didn’t seem right about the S’pore valuations when I remembered some Bloomberg stuff I saw in 2016.

This is something cybernuts don’t tell us, especially the one who jets in from HK on his private jet to lecture us on why life in HK is a lot better in HK and why we must all sing “The East is Red” and even the Malays and Indians must be Chinese patriots.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Because of public housing, housing here is a lot more affordable.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-06/singapore-crushing-hong-kong-in-race-to-bring-down-home-prices

Now if the PAP administration were a lot less obssesed about “stealing from the reserves” and “market pricing” (Market pricing? Market market pricing when the state is the largest player in the market what with its control of supply?), housing here could be a lot more affordable.

Coming back to local property prices, if u had keyed in S’pore in the Economist’s interactive model, like I did, you would have seen that valuations (historical and present) here are pretty decent. I suspect public housing data is included. Even if this is not, the public sector housing affects the private sector valuations.

 

 

How to get S’poreans to welcome mass immigration

The calls are getting louder, with more and more voices making the case for Singapore to relook its position on the foreign manpower issue, in the face of a severe demographics slowdown*.

http://www.todayonline.com/singapore/big-read-foreigner-issue-are-we-ready-rethink

The above and a similar ST article a few days earlier is evidence that the constructive, nation-building media is again preparing the way for the flood gates to be opened and for FTs to be allowed in by the cattle truck load (not like now by only the A380 or 747 cattle class load).

The stories reminded me also that

“Opposition to immigration is largely cultural and psychological. Policy options will therefore have to address this.”

Eric Kaufmann, professor of politics at Birkbeck University of London, http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/why-culture-is-more-important-than-skills-understanding-british-public-opinion-on-immigration/)

Eric Kaufmann was talking about the UK, but what he says also applies here.

So somehow, I think talking in general terms that the economy needs FTs wouldn’t work. Think the Population White Paper (Population White Paper: PAP’s suicide note?) which didn’t convince S’poreans that we need FTs by the cattle-truck load.

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A personal view

As I’ve blogged before, FTs by the cattle-truck load is good for me personally because of the wage repression effect, stronger GDP growth, rising property prices etc. But still I’m not even in favour of FTs by the A380 load. I want FTs by the A350 or 787 business class and first class load.

__________________________________________________________

So if the PAP wants to use culture and psychology to get S’poreans to welcome cattle truck-loads of FTs, the constructive, nation-building media should tell S’poreans what will happen to the value of their “affordable” HDB flats that they are paying for via 25-year mortgages, if said FTs are not allowed to come in by cattle truck-loads to beat up taxi uncles and professional women. After all, falling HDB, and private property, prices are a consequence of weak economic growth, which will result from restrictions on immigration: at least according according to the “experts” quoted in the said articles*.

As Moneytheism (particularly the Propery cult) is our religion, the message will sink in very fast that S’pore needs FTs by the cattle-truck load to prevent HDB prices, and private property prices, from collapsing.

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*The article goes on

Last December, economists said it may be time to re-look the Government’s stringent immigration policies following a UOB report on Singapore’s “demographic time bomb” which will start ticking next year, when the share of the population who are 65 and over will match that of those under 15 for the first time.

In January, Monetary Authority of Singapore chief Ravi Menon devoted much of his speech at a high-profile conference on the topic, making an impassioned plea for Singapore to “reframe our question on foreign workers”, given the limited scope in raising birth rates and labour force participation rate (LFPR). This was followed by a commentary penned by National University of Singapore (NUS) academics urging the Republic’s universities to admit more international students, in light of falling numbers.

…

Dr Chua, the Maybank economist, questioned how the targets could be met based on the current workforce size without additional foreign manpower, even after taking into account those who are displaced from positions becoming redundant.

“Manpower policies will need to be fine-tuned…Singapore’s transformation roadmap cannot be fulfilled without some flexibility in its manpower policies,” he said.

…

Dr Chua reiterated that relaxing foreign manpower restrictions during economic upcycles will allow Singapore to capitalise on growing investments and demand. “If restrictions are too tight, business will choose not to invest in the first place,” he said. “That in turn hurts job creation and opportunities for Singaporeans.”

He added that foreigners also “pay their fair share of taxes and contribute to the overall fiscal position, reducing the tax burden on citizens”.

 

 

Why 30-year old HDB flats difficult to sell/ Why PAP rule will end in 2029

A doctor turned fat cat investor responded to Jialat for PAP where I reported a property saleman (OK, OK, he’s title is “research director”) as saying “From the ground, homes with leases of less than 60 years took longer to sell, and at a much lower price …”. (Background reading for those who have not followed the problem with HDB leases of less than 60 years: HDB flats: 35 is a dangerous age)

He wrote

Since 2016/2017 HDB flats older than 39 years have seen a “cliff drop” in prices due to:
(1) Reduction of CPF quantum that can be used for properties with less than 60 yrs lease;
(2) Age of buyer plus remaining lease must be >= 80.

In many mature estates undergoing SERS activities, the price of 40+ year old flats are having 35% discounts against nearby brand new “subsidized” BTO flats. Even with marketing efforts extolling the “higher chance” of SERS for those older flats, buyers are not buying it.

This mini cliff drop has been exacerbated since LW [Lawrence Wong] did an about turn against Old Fart’s & Woody’s asset enhancement propaganda.

Currently majority of HDB flats are still within 25-38 yrs old. The above problem will get worse over the next 10-15 years.

This gives PAPies another 2 terms at least to continue milking Sinkies.

Assuming the next general election is in 2019, this means the PAP will lose power or its two-thirds parly majority in 2029 or thereabouts. Mad Dog will then be 67 and Dr Paul will be about 65. If Mad Dog becomes PM jialat. If Dr Paul becomes PM, let the good times roll.

So if SDP is still headed by Mad Dog as is most likely because he’ll knife Dr Paul in the back to ensure that he’ll rule the SDP, I’ll be forced to vote PAP for the good of S’pore. So I hope he steps down soon.

 

Jialat for PAP

Unhappy HDB “owners”will complicate change of PM (Connecting SMRT failures, 4th gen ministers & change of PM) and other plans.

In yet another sign of a recovery in the private residential market (SIBOR up 25%, but property mkt is hot?), prices went up 1.1 % in 2017, reversing the 3.1%  decline in 2016, figures from the URA showed last  Friday.

But the HDB Resale Price Index (RPI) for 2017 declined by 1.5% , HDB said on Friday.

Worse for those wanting to sell older HDB flats

From the ground, homes with leases of less than 60 years took longer to sell, and at a much lower price … we anticipate the market to improve, especially in areas where former HUDC developments were sold en bloc. Some of these buyers downsized to a HDB flat and kept the proceeds for retirement, or to support their children in purchasing a private home.

Dr Lee Nai Jia, Head of Research at Edmund Tie & Company

http://www.todayonline.com/singapore/private-home-prices-11-2017-reversing-2016s-31-decline

(Trumpets pls: I posted this in April 2017 HDB flats: 35 is a dangerous age. And btw, this Old private flats’ value can also fall off a cliff).)

Anyway, the PAP has a problem if private property prices keep going up while HDB flats prices continue to decline, or stagnate at these levels.

Those with HDB mortgages will not be happy that their their “heavily subsidised” flats have not appreciated in value in line with FTs’ and elites’ private property values, while those with older flats will be doubly unhappy.

Since more than 80% of Singapore’s population live in HDB flats, a growing gap between HDB prices and private housing prices is not good for the PAP.

But at least Mad Dog and the cybernuts will be happy: more of the 70% will be unhappy with the PAP. They can “Keep on wanking and dreaming that the PAP will lose the next GE”.

SIBOR up 25%, but property mkt is hot?

SIBOR up 25%

The three-month Singapore Interbank Offered Rate (Sibor) – the benchmark rate for most residential property loans here – has risen from 0.969 per cent on Jan 3, to 1.212 per cent as of the middle of this month. It is expected to go up further, in line with the Fed interest rate hikes next year.

But property market is hot and getting hotter. See what the property experts salemen say below.

So is cybernut-in-chief and oither haters of the 70% right that the market will tank Good economy = Unhappy hols, cybernuts?

Well so long as the global economy continues to enjoy a broad-based and strong period of growth, Oxygen and pals both at TRE and Chris K’s FB wall* will be banging their balls in frustration. And all indications are that in 2018 the party will continue for a bit longer. After all growth last year was 3.5% and will be easily 3% this yr.

Just be cautious that

The global economy may not grow as fast as predicted because China may experience slower growth than expected. If that happens stock markets will be in trouble as they seem to be priced to perfection.

But whatever, S’pore’s GDP growth will not collapse to 2%, let alone go into a recession. We may not have a great yr, but it ain’t going to a really bad yr.

On China, apart from being S’pore’s largest export market, accounting for 14.8% of total non-oil domestic exports (NODX), China has also been the fastest growing market over the past months. Almost 70 per cent of the NODX growth since July 2016 was driven by China alone. “Any slowdown in this key market will have a ripple effect on the Singapore economy,”  says DBS’s economist.

Whatever, beware property experts salemen talking their own book. Nomura economist Brian Tan urged for caution: “My main concern is that the market may be getting ahead of itself in terms of expecting this pick-up in (the) property market to be sustained.”

After several years in the doldrums, the recovery of the Singapore property market will be in full swing in 2018, experts say.

The jury is still out on whether concerns over a potential supply glut are warranted, but experts point out that how the market shapes up next year will depend very much on demand from buyers. This, in turn, hinges on the one major lever which the Government could yet call upon: The cooling measures, several of which — including the Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR) — have remained in place since 2013.

The predicted market rebound will take place against a background of improved economic showing and jobs market for Singapore. The Republic’s economy had expanded 5.2 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter, the fastest pace in more than three years, prompting the government to raise its full-year economic growth forecast for this year to between 3 and 3.5 per cent, up from 2 to 3 per cent.

“(Property) prices are picking up because of… the higher economic growth, low unemployment and stronger buyer confidence,” said ERA Realty’s key executive officer Eugene Lim.

http://www.todayonline.com/business/looking-ahead-2018-property-market-poised-roar-back-life

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*Even Chris K is reduced to saying that in the old days, growth would be 6% not 3.5%. Funny that he keeps saying at other times that things have changed: so the 3.5% is the old 6%. Anyway cybernuts from TRE might want to move to his FB wall: going by the comments there many have already. Unlike TeamTRE he doesn’t publicise my pieces so taz a reason move if any.

But be warned, he tries to keep things civil. So Oxygen please keep away.

Why S’pore’s growth is so gd this year

And next yr’s should be better.

Nothing to do with the PAP administration.

All down to the recovery in global trade.

Since 2010 global trade has, by and large, shown only lacklustre growth. Once expected to grow regularly at 1.5-2 times global gross domestic product, trade has been growing at, or even below, the rate of broader economic output in recent years, prompting some to proclaim the end of an era of “hyperglobalisation”.

This year is expected to be the best in recent history for global trade. The WTO in September upgraded its forecast for world trade growth, predicting it would expand by 3.6 per cent in 2017. That is largely the result of a better global economy. For the first time since the crisis all of the world’s major economies are in relatively rude health.

FT

Don’t overleverage in property

But the recovery in global trade remains far from a boom and there are still plenty of signs of fragility.

FT again

And yes the scholar and SAF general now running SPH screwed up big time when in ran NOL. selling it when the cycle was turning.

How Norway’s SWF sees S’pore property

Talking about commercial property here, Karsten Kallevig, head of the fund’s property business, might have unwittingly explained why S’poreans vote for the PAP:

the fund had found it harder in Singapore due to “different dynamics” but was persisting there. He added that rents were very volatile in the city state while capital values were more stable. “With pricing and opportunities . . . we have not been able to conclude on anything that for us provides the confidence to start investing there.”

FT report

He is saying, he can’t get in at what he considers to be a gd entry price, yield-wise. Global investors especially SWFs look for relatively attractive yields when investing in commercial property.

What this means is that those invested here in commercial property do so because they continue seeing capital values going up long term. Because they know that S’poreans will keep on voting for the PAP, who is the friend of capitalists? Eat yr heart out anti-PAP cybernuts.

Cybernut exposes himself as PAP mole

When TRE republished this piece of mine about what called Hernando de Soto called “dead capital” (inability to use an asset as collateral) applies to HDB flats, a leading TRE cybernut exposed himself as a PAPy dog who wants S’poreans to thank the PAP for the PAP’s public housing policies.

Rabble-rouser wrote:

How can HDB flats be dead capital? [He obviously never read how Hernando de Soto defined “dead capital”: my note]

…

For the older &/or fully paid up home owners, how many would want to unlock their property equity values to engage in risky entrepreneurial activities? Many would prefer to keep their house equity intact for retirement & health needs.

There are so many ways to monetize or reap money from your HDB flats:
* You can sell your HDB flat on the open market if you really need money. The HDB resale market is very liquid compared to private properties.
* Retirees can do a ‘HDB Lease Buyback’ if they want to stay in their HDB flat while monetizing their flat’s remaining lease for spending money.
* You can rent out 1 to 2 room(s) for rental income with HDB approval.
* If you can stay with your kids, then rent out entire HDB flats with HDB approval for even better rentals.
…
* If you really need money, downgrade from EA/EM, 5-rm, 4-rm to 3-rm, 2-rm Flexi. [Just watch out for Retirement Minimum Sum]

I’m surprised he didn’t add “Vote PAP. They look after S’poreans”.

HDB flat: Dead Capital

Here I wrote why a good public housing system is good for society quoting the uK’s Conservative party in 1951

Housing is the first of the social services. It is also one of the keys to increased productivity. Work, family life, health and education are all undermined by crowded houses.

I also wrote that in S’pore

things started going wrong when HDB flats on 99-year leases became “assets” to be manipulated for political gain (Think “asset enhancement”). The result: “affordable” public housing now means HDB “owners” having to take out mortgages of 25 years. Not a big problem if one buys a BTO flat from the HDB. After paying off the mortgage, there’s 39 years to go before the value of the flat falls over a cliff.

Here’s another problem: The paid-up HDB flat is an example of Hernando de Soto’s “dead capital” at work.

Hernando de Soto is a big name in development economics. He’s a Peruvian economist known for his work on the informal economy and the importance of business and property rights in development.

While S’pore is a developed economy (notwithstanding what the cybernuts say when they post on TRE or Chris K’s FB page), his idea of dead capital and the problems it causes society applies here too.

If I want a loan – to improve my house, or build a business – lenders need collateral. And land or buildings make particularly good collateral because they tend to increase in value, and it’s hard to hide them from creditors.

But the lender needs to be confident it could take the house away from me if I don’t repay the loan. So, I need to prove that the house really is mine. That requires an invisible web of information that the legal system and the banking system can use.

For Hernando de Soto, this invisible web is the difference between my house being an asset – something useful that I own – and being capital – an asset recognised by the financial system.

‘Dead capital’

In poor countries, a lot of assets are informally held. Hernando de Soto calls them “dead capital”, useless for securing a loan. His estimate was that at the start of the 21st Century there was almost $10tn (£7.5tn) worth of dead capital across the developing world – more than $4,000 (£3,200) for every person.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-41650606

We are not a poor country, but we got a lot of dead capital because paid-up HDB flats cannot be used as collateral for a bank loan or any other loan.

Question: My HDB property is fully paid up. Can i remortgage/refinance my HDB flat back to the banks for a loan?

Nope. Government rulings prohibit the remortgaging/refinancing of your fully-paid HDB flat for any additional new cash out loans.

http://www.mortgagesupermart.com.sg/resources/frequently-asked-questions

And the PAP administration KPKBs about the need to create an entrepreneurial, risk taking society? Entrepreneurs need funding and banks and other financial institutions need collateral when making risky loans. And property is the best collateral. No collateral, no funding.

2033: Real reason why PAP rule will really end

When I wrote Today SMRT, TOM Resale Public Housing which tells readers living in HDB flats how much time they have to enjoy “asset enhancement” after paying off their “affordable” 25-year mortgage (before the value of their HDB flats collapses according to calculations made by the constructive, nation-building ST not anti-PAP cynernuts), a regular reader linked my tots to an earlier piece Why 2033 will be the yr PAP rule ends.

By then the problem of large swathes of HDB estates’ (not just blocks here & there) impending demise to zero value will be front & center.

this fat cat rentier pointed out referencing Why 2033 will be the yr PAP rule ends

So u really think Ah Loong wants his son to be the 5th generation PAP PM? Something his siblings and anti-PAP cybernuts allege?

Today SMRT, TOM Resale Public Housing

But first, why a good public housing system is good for society.

Housing is the first of the social services. It is also one of the keys to increased productivity. Work, family life, health and education are all undermined by crowded houses. Therefore a Conservative and Unionist Government will give housing a priority second only to national defense.

1951 Tory conference: Economist

(Note the Tories won the UK general election and ruled until 1964 despite several debacles like the Suez crisis and not getting into the EU.)

Like the Tories, Harry and the PAP Old Guard when they came to power in 1959 also understood the importance of housing in building a cohesive society .

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Related articles

“Housing is Affordable”: The real truth

Recognise this ang moh description of our HDB system?

From conception to death, the PAP looks after S’poreans

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But things started going wrong when HDB flats on 99-year leases became “assets” to be manipulated for political gain (Think “asset enhancement”). The result: “affordable” public housing now means HDB “owners” having to take out mortgages of 25 years. Not a big problem if one buys a BTO flat from the HDB. After paying off the mortgage, there’s 39 years to go before the value of the flat falls over a cliff.

http://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/will-you-still-love-your-hdb-flat-when-its-over-64

Note, it’s not the anti-PAP cybernuts pointing out the fall in value when the flat is 65 years old. It’s the constructive, nation-building ST.

But if one bought a 30-year old HDB resale flat, by the time the mortgage is paid up, one only gets 9 years before the value of the flat falls over a cliff.

In between a BTO and a 30-year old flat:

— If one bought a 20-year old HDB resale flat, by the time the mortgage is paid up, one gets 19 years before the value of the flat falls over a cliff.

— If one bought a 10-year old HDB resale flat, by the time the 25 year mortgage is paid up, one gets 29 years before the value of the flat falls over a cliff.

One by one, the icons of PAP rule are showing their feet of clay. First was and is the MRT system run by SMRT, next will be resale public housing.

——————————————-

Feet of clay

Thou, O king, sawest, and behold a great image. This great image, whose brightness was excellent, stood before thee; and the form thereof was terrible.

This image’s head was of fine gold, his breast and his arms of silver, his belly and his thighs of brass,

His legs of iron, his feet part of iron and part of clay. (Daniel 2:31-33)

…

And whereas thou sawest the feet and toes, part of potters’ clay, and part of iron, the kingdom shall be divided; but there shall be in it of the strength of the iron, forasmuch as thou sawest the iron mixed with miry clay.

And as the toes of the feet were part of iron, and part of clay, so the kingdom shall be partly strong, and partly broken.

And whereas thou sawest iron mixed with miry clay, they shall mingle themselves with the seed of men: but they shall not cleave one to another, even as iron is not mixed with clay. (Daniel 2:41-43)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Property: Freehold rules OK

In Property dev, S’pore style,I reported that CityDev build Amber Park 34 yrs ago and sold each unit at about S$360,000. Now they are buying back at more than S$4.3m per unit, spending S$906.7m in total. Owners are expected to receive between S$4.3 million and S$8.3 million in gross sale proceeds.

If u are wondering why CityDev is prepared to pay so much, it’s because the land it sold and bot back is freehold. No need to top up to renew lease because there’s no lease to renew. Btw, a retired social activist (honourably discharged) must be feeling good. Ten years ago he bot ia newly developed freehold condominium apartment in the Joo Chiat area . He was saying that the market priced the project at a slight premium to a similar 99-yr leasehold project.

Bet u CityDev will now sell the flats on a 99-year lease, keeping the freehold for itself, juz like the govt aka HDB flats.

As to the selling price, a fat cat reader says, “With an average 1000sf unit, that’s $2.6+M”. I’d round that up to S$3m a flat.

Given that CityDev is now so bullish about the property market, what will the cybernuts say now?

When I wrote this Property: TRE nuts will be getting more frus, chief TRE cybernut, Oxygen, went madder with rage, saying I was peddling untruths about a recovering property market.

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Oxygen is so nutty that he

— donated $10,000 to TRE before GE 2015;

— despite living in Oz and KPKBing about wanting his CPF money, he still keeps (or cannot give up?) his S’pore citizenship and so still cannot withdraw his CPF money; and

— dances on graves of dead children, sneering at their grieving parents TRE grave dancer doesn’t deny grave dancing.

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Now that City Dev has shown its faith in the S’pore property market, Oxygen must be banging his balls even harder. And so will his fellow TRE cybernuts like Philip Ang and Ng Cock Lim. Their predictions of a collapse in S’pore property prices remain dreams like their predictions of big losses in 2015 for the PAP.

Worse news for them: this year’s GDP growth is looking good at a forecast of 2.5%. Last yr’s was 2%.

Coming back to property, when u see the greedy residents of Laguna Park and Pine Grove put their flats up for en bloc sales, its peak market time again: Even greedier en-blocers.

That was written in 2011, when they were looking at each enbloc sale grossing S$1.4bn.

They should now remember this: JLL’s Tan advises owners of private residential projects on leasehold sites to be aware that, as the lease gets shorter, the differential premium that developers have to pay gets higher. “This will eat into their sale price,” he says. Old private flats’ value can also fall off a cliff

Property dev, S’pore style

Buy high, sell high, buy higher, sell higher.

CityDev build Amber Park 34 yrs ago and sold each unit at about S$360,000. Now they buy back at slightly more than S$4.3m per unit, spending S$906.7m in total. Owners are expected to receive between S$4.3 million and S$8.3 million in gross sale proceeds.

“The 213,670 sq ft residential site may be redeveloped to accommodate a high-rise apartment development of around 24 to 26 storeys, depending on the technical height controls, its sole marketing agent JLL said.”

What is going to be the selling price of the new units now?

S$5m at a minimum it would seem.

 

Why PAP thinks we need a Malay president?

Even if her i/c says “Indian”.

Because it wants to avoid property prices from collapsing?

A Muslim president will keep some Muslims from becoming radicalised and then becoming terrorists because there hasn’t been a Muslim president since Yusof Ishak? (Btw, even at the time, there were questions whether he was Malay. He comes from Minangkabau stock.)  (Btw, Read what a law professor has to say about the definition of “Malay” in our con.

Here’s what an Indonesian Muslim scholar says about Islam and terrorism

… should stop pretending that extremism and terrorism have nothing to do with Islam. There is a clear relationship between fundamentalism, terrorism, and the basic assumptions of Islamic orthodoxy. So long as we lack consensus regarding this matter, we cannot gain victory over fundamentalist violence within Islam.

Radical Islamic movements are nothing new. They’ve appeared again and again throughout our own history in Indonesia. The West must stop ascribing any and all discussion of these issues to “Islamophobia.” Or do people want to accuse me — an Islamic scholar — of being an Islamophobe too?

What basic assumptions within traditional Islam are problematic?

The relationship between Muslims and non-Muslims, the relationship of Muslims with the state, and Muslims’ relationship to the prevailing legal system wherever they live … Within the classical tradition, the relationship between Muslims and non-Muslims is assumed to be one of segregation and enmity.

Perhaps there were reasons for this during the Middle Ages, when the tenets of Islamic orthodoxy were established, but in today’s world such a doctrine is unreasonable. To the extent that Muslims adhere to this view of Islam, it renders them incapable of living harmoniously and peacefully within the multi-cultural, multi-religious societies of the 21st century.

https://pamelageller.com/2017/09/muslim-scholar-truth-about-islam.html/

Bottom line, PAP wants to keep S’pore safe? Otherwise property prices will plunge if there’s no Muslim president?

=====

According to law professor Kevin Tan in a talk at the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) Forum on The Reserved Presidential Election on Sept. 8, the definition of “Malay” in the Constitution is anomalous because he says“who is a Malay?” is a highly problematic legal question.

Source: Singapore Statutes Online

“With Malay candidates, it gets even more interesting, because I think back in 1988, this formula when it was first brought up, they already recognised that it was almost next to impossible to define who is or is not a Malay…Because it is a social construct, we make it up, about race, about who is and is not a Malay, or Chinese or so on. It is actually socially constructed. In the case of the Malay, it actually says, a person belonging to the Malay Community means any person and here nobody else has this phrase ‘of the Malay race or otherwise’. So this means that I, meaning Kevin Tan can say I am Malay, even though I am not of Malay stock, theoretically. “

My take on the “Malay” race: no such race.

What should really frighten S’poreans

Think twice before u cheong property. Growth in global trade, a very dependent driver for our economy in the past, can no longer be reliably relied on to produce its regular fixes to the S’pore economy and the PAP’s popularity.

S’pore is highly dependent on global trade and global trade growth has slowed in recent years.

International trade has been growing below historic trends for the past five years. The 1.9 per cent growth recorded in 2016, according to the team at the [World Bank], was the slowest since the 2009 collapse in commerce that followed the global financial crisis.

FT in February this year

Martin Wolf of the FT earlier this year on the global trade slowdown

Between 1960 and 2015, world trade increased at an average rate of 6.6 per cent, in real terms, while output grew at an average rate of 3.5 per cent. Between 2008 and 2015, however, average annual growth of world trade was 3.4 per cent in real terms, while world output grew at 2.4 per cent. Not only has the growth of trade slowed, but the gap between trade growth and that of output also fell sharply.

And although growth in trade has picked up this yr, the slowdown could be secular, not cyclical

The man running the world’s biggest sovereign wealth fund says there’s every indication that global trade is suffering from something more serious than a temporary slowdown.

Yngve Slyngstad, chief executive officer of Norges Bank Investment Management, as the fund is known, says the heyday of cross-border trade is probably behind us.

Because

During a recent conference on globalization, the fund’s chief strategist, Bjorn Erik Orskaug, suggested the world might be at an “inflection point” in trade, with shallower value chains and less cross-border production. And then there’s the protectionist agenda some governments are pursuing.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-31/norway-s-980-billion-fund-reveals-bleak-view-on-global-trade

Taz why PM was trying so hard for TPP despite rowing in private with his siblings: TPP sucked but only cybernuts celebrate its demise