Enjoy Deepavali but be prepared to suffer during Christmas, New Year and CNY. Interest rates are likely to go up.
Just over a week ago when I wrote this, interest rate futures implied less than a 3o% chance of a tise by the Fed in December (markets didn’t think the Fed would raise), whereas the odds were close to even (could go either way) yesterday morning our time. Then in NY time, interest rate futures moved to price in a 58% possibility of rate “lift-off” occurring in December, up from 50% earlier in the day. Chairman of Fed said December would be a “live possibility” for a rate rise if incoming data supported that expectation.