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Posts Tagged ‘oil’

Oil prices are “right” for PAP

In Energy, Political governance on 24/10/2018 at 10:15 am

Last night Brent touched US$75.88 a barrel — the lowest since early September — before settling at US$76.44 in NY. In early October it was above US$86.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Phew that was a really quick sharp retracement after a very sharp spik in October: Tua kee traders take opposing views on price of oil.

The PAP govt must be relieved oil is now trading below US$80.

A US$ oil price of closer to US$100  than US$60 will pose problems for an early GE in late 2019 esp with the promised rise in GST(See below for GST related posts) after GE: Akan datang: GE in late 2019

According to Citi’s Johanna Chua, Asian countries suffer the most when oil prices rise because, aside from Malaysia, most are net oil importers. Singapore runs a sizable 6.5% oil and gas deficit,

HoHoHo: Why oil price rises are not gd for PAP

 

 

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HoHoHo: Gd news for PAP amid cont’d global equities carnage

In Energy on 19/10/2018 at 7:06 am

In New York, the S&P 500 fell 1.4% to 2,768, while earlier in the day China’s CSI 300 lost 2.4%. Techs look sickly.

But oil’s below US$80 having been at US%86 a week ago. So PAP should be pleased: HoHoHo: Why oil price rises are not gd for PAP

HoHoHo: Why oil price rises are not gd for PAP

In Economy, Emerging markets, Energy, Political economy, Political governance, Public Administration on 15/10/2018 at 11:19 am

Phew that was a quick sharp retracement after a very sharp spik: Tua kee traders take opposing views on price of oil. The PAP govt must be relieved oil is now trading around US$82 (minutes ago) than above US$86 (middle of last week).

A US$ oil price of closer to US$100 will not only make Tun M (M’sia exports oil) more willingly to cut off our water supply but will pose problems for an early GE in late 2019 esp with the promised rise in GST(See below for GST related posts) after GE: Akan datang: GE in late 2019

According to Citi’s Johanna Chua, Asian countries suffer the most when oil prices rise because, aside from Malaysia, most are net oil importers. Singapore runs a sizable 6.5% oil and gas deficit, followed closely by Pakistan, Thailand, Sri Lanka and Taiwan. Indonesia and Vietnam manage slightly smaller deficits of roughly 1%.

So many of these economies see the largest inflation swings when oil prices rise. Chua’s chart ranking the sensitivity regionally over the past six years. See where we stand.

S'pore oilThe ** explained that the spike in inflation here is caused by some one-off stats adjustment of data base. So not really comparable to other countries. But try telling that to cybernuts like Oxygen or Phillip Ang.

But rational readers should get the message. Voters really get hurt by oil price rises. And the promised GST price increase is not going to impress the 10 points of voters that voted for the PAP in last GE, bring the total votes for the PAP to 70%: a great result for the PM and the PAP after the failure of only 60% in 2011.


GST-related posts

GST rise: Anti-PAP activists should take note

How to ensure no GST rise

Countering PAP’s BS that taxes must go up

 

Tua kee traders take opposing views on price of oil

In Energy on 15/10/2018 at 6:59 am

Phew that was a quick sharp retracement to around US$81 after a sudden sharp spike to US$86. I’ll be blogging soon on why the PAP govt must be relieved oil is now trading around US$81 than around US$86.

But interestingly last week as the price spiked to over US$86 and then fell sharply  two major oil traders had opposite views.

Ian Taylor of Vitol, chairman of the world’s largest independent energy trader, told the Oil & Money conference on Wednesday he expected prices to eventually fall towards $65 a barrel, arguing he saw no shortage of crude in the market and the early signs of weaker demand.

FT

But

In the opposite corner is Jeremy Weir of Trafigura, Vitol’s long time rival, who said at the same London event he expects to see “three figure” prices before the recent rally is tempered, which has already seen Brent crude gain 50 per cent in the past 12 months to near $85 a barrel.

FT

Btw, fyi, the hedgies are long oil because of the US Iran embargo. And two major oil cos CEOs say that there’s adequate supply for the bear term future.

 

Noticed? Oil’s spiked to US$85 a barrel

In Economy, Energy on 08/10/2018 at 7:47 am

Not if u only read our constructive nation building (OK, OK, I don’t read BT) or TOC and other anti PAP publications.

What this means

A sharp and sustained rise in oil is one of the nastiest taxes on growth you can get.

FT columnist

So expect GDP growth here and elsewhere to slow down if oil doesn’t fall back to below US$80 (Top of trading range for this yr until late Sept).

Buy Keppel, and SembCorp listcos. And take a punt on the penny stocks in O&M sector?

Whatever, shows Trump is “stable genius”. His much criticised tax cuts earlier this yr, will help cushion the US consumer (and hence the world) againsat this oil price oil if it persists.

Oil: Someone is wrong

In Energy on 24/04/2015 at 1:08 pm

Hedge funds have placed one of their largest ever bets on a rally in oil prices, just as evidence mounts that energy companies are hunkering down for a delayed recovery.

Exchange data show hedge funds and other large speculators have accumulated a record-breaking number of North Sea Brent futures and options contracts equal to almost 265m barrels of oil — the equivalent of almost three days of global oil demand.

At the same time, oil producers and other physical market players have rushed to lock-in prices, selling forward more than half a billion Brent barrels in a bid to protect against future price falls. It is the highest level since the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) started publishing position data in early 2011.

(Today’s FT)

Oil bulls extinct; Only vultures left

In Energy on 06/01/2015 at 1:59 pm

The US oil price fell below the symbolic threshold of US$50 a barrel for the first time since April 2009, before finishing the day at US$50.05: NY last night.

This report appeared on I Jan

Hedge funds finally pulled back from bets on higher oil prices as the market faced its worst year since 2008.

Speculators reduced their net-long position in West Texas Intermediate crude for the first time in four weeks, cutting their holdings by 5 percent in the week ended Dec. 23, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed yesterday. Long wagers dropped the most since August.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-31/hedge-funds-surrender-to-oil-rout-as-bullish-bets-drop.html

Meanwhile junk energy bonds keep on tanking. The vultures are circling.

high yield bonds

Oil crash: US hegemony at work?

In Commodities, Malaysia on 21/10/2014 at 1:16 pm

Lower oil prices … Are they also a potent US weapon against Russia and Iran?

That’s the conclusion drawn by New York Times columnist Thomas L Friedman, who says the US and Saudi Arabia, whether by accident or design, could be pumping Russia and Iran to brink of economic collapse.

Despite turmoil in many of the world’s oil-producing countries – Libya, Iraq, Nigeria and Syria – prices are hitting lows not seen in years, Friedman writes.

Rather than look at the causes, however, Friedman says to look at the result – budget shortfalls in Russia and Iran – and what it means.

Who benefits? He asks. The US wants its Ukraine-related sanctions against Russia to have more bite. Both the Saudis and the US are fighting a proxy war against Iran in Syria.

“This is business, but it also has the feel of war by other means: oil,” he writes.

http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-echochambers-29651742

Btw, weak oil prices makes it more difficult for M’sia to fund its budget.

US$100 oil in 2016: US Army

In Energy on 20/04/2010 at 5:29 am

The US Army is working on assumption that in 2016, the price of oil will be US$100.

The US military has warned that surplus oil production capacity could disappear within two years and there could be serious shortages by 2015 with a significant economic and political impact.

The energy crisis outlined in a Joint Operating Environment report from the US Joint Forces Command …

Connected post

https://atans1.wordpress.com/2010/04/01/oil-neither-too-hot-nor-too-cold/