Posts Tagged ‘US$ dollar’

A NEW GLOBAL CURRENCY WAR?/ “Good” news for some

In China, Currencies, Property on 17/08/2015 at 1:10 pm

But the good news for those of us who own Reits and good paying yield stocks is that the Fed may not raises rates in September. Good for those mortgaged to their eyeballs too. But TRE ranters will be upset that the coming collapse S’pore property prices will be again delayed once more. They want their fellow S’poreans to die for supporting the PAP. Ah well hope springs eternal.

China held firm on the value of its money for years, as other countries tried to secure an economic advantage by letting the value of their currencies slide on international markets. Some analysts see its jump into the fray as a new phase in a long-raging global currency war, Peter Eavis writes in DealBook. The plunge paused on Friday, but the renminbi was still down 4.4 percent against the dollar this week, a huge drop for China and the steepest drop since the country’s modern exchange system was set up, Neil Gough reports in The New York Times. The move could leave the United States exposed and undermine efforts to pull the world economy out of the doldrums.

The yen, the euro and several other major currencies have fallen in recent years against the dollar as the Federal Reserve has cut back its stimulus, but the countries that don’t join the devaluations can end up suffering if they export less and import more. A steep drop in the value of the renminbi could also intensify some of the forces that have caused the American economy to underperform.

Analysts also fear the currency tensions could worsen entrenched problems in the global economy, like its reliance on the dollar as a so-called reserve currency. This dependence means that the Fed’s actions can change economic conditions in other countries, and not always for the better.

The Fed now faces a problem. It is considering raising interest ratesfor the first time in more than nine years. A rate increase could drive the dollar up even more aainst other currencies, creating an obstacle to the American economy. It could also make life even harder for countries in the developing world, which could experience capital outflows. Companies in emerging markets that borrowed in dollars would have to spend more of their local currency to pay back their debts.

China, too, would struggle if there was an uncontrolled plunge in the renminbi. Chinese entities have borrowed more than $1.6 trillion in foreign currencies. “A sharp devaluation is not in China’s interest,” said Li-Gang Liu, a China economist at ANZ Research. “That could make corporates very panicky.”

Prolonged turbulence and economic pain may then force world leaders to think hard about whether the international system can be changed, Mr. Eavis writes. The easy money pumped out by the Fed over the last decade helped stoke booms in other countries that became unsustainable. As the Fed has pulled back, the adjustment has been jarring for huge economies, like Brazil and China.

“The system is coming back to bite us in the rear,” said David Beckworth, an associate economics professor at Western Kentucky University. “Maybe this experience teaches us that we are more interconnected than we ever were.”

NYT Dealbook

Holiday in M’sia, Indonesia

In Currencies, Indonesia, Malaysia on 15/08/2015 at 4:54 am

Against US dollar.

Malaysia’s ringgit and Indonesia’s rupiah both slid to 17-year lows, after falls of 2 per cent and 1.4 per cent respectively, while the currencies of India, Colombia, Taiwan, Chile, Vietnam, Turkey, Mexico, Brazil and Singapore all ended the week 1-2 per cent softer. FT

But these currencies depreciate against S$ too.

Everyone’s weaker against US$ after yesterday’s RMB devaluation

In China on 12/08/2015 at 1:28 pm

US$: Huat Ah

In Currencies on 08/01/2015 at 1:40 pm

EURO FALLS LOWER Down the euro goes. On Friday, Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank, said in an interview with a German newspaper that the threat of deflation might force his bank to take more aggressive stimulus measures, which could include buying eurozone bonds in bulk, Landon Thomas Jr. and Jack Ewing report in DealBook. His comments prompted the euro to fall to $1.20, a four-and-a-half year low against the dollar.

The dollar also hit a multiyear high against the Japanese yen, and it was also gaining on the fragile currencies in Brazil, Turkey and Russia.

What does it all mean? The moves highlighted a new trend in world currency markets: Global central banks ‒ along with investors also wary of the low returns that their euros have been delivering ‒ have increasingly been switching into dollars and out of euros, Mr. Thomas and Mr. Ewing write. “The expectation is that a rapidly recovering United States economy will push the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates this year, making dollar-based assets more attractive than those denominated in euros, Japanese yen and emerging market currencies,” they write.

The weakness in the euro on Friday came after Mr. Draghi, in an interview in Handelsblatt of Germany, said, “The risks of not fulfilling our mandate of price stability are in any case higher than they were six months ago.” Investors interpreted Mr. Draghi’s comments to mean that the central bank was moving closer to broad-based purchases of government bonds, possibly as soon as its next monetary policy meeting, on Jan. 22.

A worrying combination

In Commodities, Emerging markets, Energy on 17/12/2010 at 5:35 am

A strong oil price and a strengthening US$.


Winners and Losers as the US Dollar Falls

In Economy on 07/12/2009 at 6:00 am

Great US-centric schematic on above.

Useful for followers of local mkt.


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