Asians are rich in America and they don’t like Biden

And they don’t like Biden.

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Who is bigger tua kee? China or US?

China holds more than $3tn in foreign currency reserves, while the US holds almost none. 

FT’s Martin Wolf

By our millionaire ministers’ standards China must be more tua kee than the USA. So why is PM not licking Xi’s ass?

Because, the USA

can print them … The ability of the US and its allies to freeze a large proportion of Russia’s currency reserves shows what this power means.

FT’s Martin Wolf

Trump and Covid-19

China reacted angrily after US President Donald Trump referred to the coronavirus as the “Chinese virus”.

The foreign ministry spokesman warned the US should “take care of its own business” before putting the blame on China.

But let’s not forget that last week the same Chinese foreign ministry spokesman shared a conspiracy theory, which alleged the US Army had brought the virus into Wuhan.

The allegation seems to imply that the US has a time machine, enabling it bring a dead body containing the virus from the US this year into Wuhan in December 2019.

Whatever, the US secretary of state was not amused and took umbrage that a Chinese official was giving credence to the allegation by talking about it. Btw, secretary of state Mike Pompeo regularly, like me, refers to the virus as “the Wuhan virus”.

So maybe China is right to be upset?

Related post:

The first case could have on 1 December, not 31 December 2019.

Wuhan virus: Jialat, if this true

Why Trump loves the Wuhan (Covid-19) virus

Google, Microsoft shift production from China faster due to virus

Nikkei Asian Review headline

The Nikkei Asian Review reports that the worsening coronavirus outbreak has Google and Microsoft accelerating their shifts in production of new phones, personal computers and other devices from China to Southeast Asia. Factories in Vietnam and Thailand are expected to be the biggest beneficiaries.

Apple is also doing the same.

While Trump would prefer them to move manufacturing back to the US of A, he’d settle for them leaving China.

All in all, the Wuhan virus is hastening not only US-China conspicuous decoupling, but also China’s links with other developed countries.

Note that the word “Covid-19” was added to the title on March 21 at 6.30 am. LOL.

Why Mamas are running US tech giants, not us slit-eyes

Indian supremacists and their Chinese friends are KPKBing about Indian start-ops depend on Chinese money

They point out that as usual Mamas are punching above their weight (like in S’pore law and politics) in the US C-suites and politically. Hello Andrew Yang juz dropped out of the presidential. The ladies with mama blood were booted out a long time ago.

OK, OK, there are 4 mamas heading US giant techs.

Mr Krishna’s recent elevation at IBM mirrors the rise of Satya Nadella at Microsoft and Shantanu Narayen at Adobe. They were Indian-born engineers who took over at prominent US tech companies that were going through a midlife crisis. Then there is Alphabet’s CEO, Sundar Pichai

Meanwhile,

Chinese engineers complain that Silicon Valley has an ethnic glass ceiling, and interviewees, many of whom are naturalised American citizens, compared their status with the relative success of Indians in large tech companies.

“In the US many Indian managers have become big company’s CEOs, but in many ways there’s still a bottleneck for Chinese people,” said Hans Tung, managing partner of GGV Capital, at a recent conference in Beijing. Turning to Eric Yuan, the founder of Zoom, he asked: “What do you think can be done?”.

Mr Yuan is Silicon Valley’s most well-known Chinese immigrant success story. His video conference app Zoom, which listed last April, is valued at almost $21bn. Mr Yuan responded that many Indian engineers were not only proficient at technical work, but also at understanding business models and management.

“It’s Chinese culture: it emphasises obedience and modesty, not confidence,” says Sophie Xu, a PayPal employee who left China for Canada and then the US 17 years ago. “There’s no wild ambition, we love book smarts.”

FT

My interpretation: Mamas suck up to ang mohs while Chinese ignore ang mohs. The latter believe that their work will show how good they are: they think of Grandpa’s Xi rise in China. Mamas not that naive: they know sucking ass matters.

Sama, sama: China & US?

The FT recently reported that the CEOS of 18 small British telecoms companies met at a London bank two months ago to discuss investment, strategy and mergers in the telco sector.

At the beginning of the meeting, to get everyone into a participatory mood, they were asked two questions.

They were asked if they thought the Chinese could eavesdrop through “backdoors” in Huawei equipment. Every single hand went up.

They were then asked, if they thought the US could eavesdrop through key Cisco equipment.

All the hands went straight back up without hesitation

S’pore telcos use a lot of Cisco stuff (internet related) and are starting to use Huawel because its cheap and excellent. Nokia’s and Ericsson’s stuff are expensive and juz OK.

US energy, manufactured exports to China to cheong

Trump has signed a deal with Xi (OK, OK thier sidekicks signed it) on US China trade.

In it, among other things, China has to meet a US$200bn import target in the next two years. If it fails, Trump will restart tweeting bad things about China, raise tariffs etc.

The US Chamber of Commerce estimates that increased Chinese purchases of US agriculture products will account for only about U$32bn of the U$200bn target. This means implying that  will have to import huge amounts of energy, manufactured goods and services to make up the difference.

TikTok data stored here

TikTok said all US user data is stored in the United States, with a backup in Singapore

BBC report

Beijing-based Bytedance owns TikTok, a video-sharing app popular in the US. TikTok says it “does not remove content” based on Chinese sensitivities.

This follows concerns raised by US lawmakers over whether Beijing censors content on the app and data collection.

Background to Trump’s appeal to China on Bidens

Trump had suggested on Thursday that the Chinese authorities could help dig up dirt on Mr Joe Biden and his son Hunter’s business dealings in China. Trump is already facing a  very rapidly escalating political crisis because of an impeachment inquiry.

The impeachment inquiry focuses on a whistleblower’s claim that the president put pressure on the Ukrainian president to investigate Joe Biden, the former vice-president and his potential rival in the 2020 presidential race.

Trump has now exacerbated the situation by asking for help from China, a nation that his own White House labelled a “revisionary power”.

Here’s what the BBC says:

What about the Bidens in China?

In 2013, then vice-president Mr Biden went to China on an official visit, where he met Chinese President Xi Jinping and other officials.

Hunter Biden and his daughter joined the vice-president, who had travelled with family members before.

During the two-day visit, Hunter met a Chinese banker, Jonathan Li, who would eventually become a business partner.

Mr Li founded a private equity fund shortly after the trip, and Hunter was on the board, although a spokesman for the younger Mr Biden told NBC News they did not discuss any business during the trip and the fund had been planned months earlier.

Hunter Biden was also not an equity owner in the fund during his father’s term as vice-president, according to the spokesman.

Hunter has denied meeting any Chinese officials about the business. However, he reportedly helped arrange for Mr Li to shake hands with Joe Biden during his trip to Beijing, which stoked claims of influence-peddling.

This August, Republican Senator and Finance Chairman Chuck Grassley questioned Hunter’s actions on the trip.

He said the younger Biden had a “history of investing in and collaborating with Chinese companies, including at least one posing significant national security concerns”.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-49924579?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.com/news/world/us_and_canada&link_location=live-reporting-story

There is also a story that a Chinese SWF invested a billion US$ in a hedge fund connected to Hunter. No credible evidence of this.

US Cavalry riding to rescue HK from chief Xi?

Or to be a lot more accurate, will the US Congress pass “Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act”?

The proposed bill would allow the US government to place sanctions on Chinese officials who “suppress basic freedoms” in Hong Kong and would require it to regularly certify the city’s “high degree of autonomy” in order for it to continue to enjoy preferential trade and investment policies not available to mainland China.

Last weekend, there was the usual massive peaceful protest followed by small scale but very violent riots. HK protesters were marching, asking the US congress to pass the above act. Many of the marchers, from elderly retirees, young families and students, carried US flags, or placards bearing the face of Donald Trump to call on the him to support them.

————————————————————————————–

How Hongkies justify flying US flag

The US flag is about freedom and bravery,” said one, a 30-year-old who gave his name as Peter. “It’s not about supporting the US government, it’s about the value behind the flag no matter who the US president is at the time. The flag and the freedom doesn’t change.

Quote from FT

Tun manufacturing another row to stir his anti-PAP S’porean fans?

Btw, carrying placards with The Donald’s face on them is a smart way of currying his favour. He can tell Xi, “I’m more popular then you in Hong Kong.”

—————————————————————-

The US Congress will return this week after its summer recess. The Hong Kong bill has widespread bipartisan support.

China’s leaders must either respect Hong Kong’s autonomy and rule of law or know that their escalating aggression will inexorably lead them to face swift, severe and lasting consequences from the United States and the world. Today, that choice is theirs.”

Marco Rubio, a former US presidential candidate and co-sponsor of the bill.

Another example of the Americans’ attitude: Americans and Chinese lay down the law to HK

 

 

 

 

 

With US cos like these, Xi can give Trump the finger

Further to With Apple as a US co, USA doesn’t need enemies, here’s more on US cos who have decided to give Trump, and others who have serious concerns about China — congress, and the defence and security establishments — the bird. The Donald, congress and defence and security establishments think that China is the new USSR and must be contained.

But investments by US companies in China have grown this year despite the worsening trade row. Some American businesses want to benefit from China’s expanding consumer market.

US companies invested US$6.8bn into China in the first half of the year, up 1.5% from the average during the same period over the past two years, according to the Rhodium Group, a consultancy.

Most of the US$6.8bn

went into greenfield projects, such as electric vehicle maker Tesla’s factory in Shanghai, which will be the first wholly foreign-owned auto plant in China. Other large deals included US fund Bain Capital’s $570m investment in data centre provider Beijing Qinhuai.

FT

Btw, this data contradicts China’s official data but the FT says this data is more reliable

And btw2, late last week, The Donald said was ready to use emergency powers to compel US companies to stop doing business with Beijing. But according to the FT, US cos think he’s talking cock.

Here’s why US cos are prepared to put profits before patriotism:

US retailer Costco was forced to close early on its opening day in China, after the store was swamped with shoppers.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49492326

But Grandpa Xi has Chinese cos that are just as unpatriotic as American cos: With cos like these, China doesn’t need enemies like Trump

Trump’s a genius

An unstable one even if he calls himself “a stable genius”.

Mr Trump has portrayed the Fed chief as an economic threat, and few people have come to the central banker’s support. Recently, The Donald called dubbed Mr Powell the “golfer who can’t put”. Populists side with Trump, while Democrats and progressives don’t want to be seen as defenders of Wall St.  They think the Fed is more interested in protecting Wall St, not Main St.

Karen Petrou, managing partner of Federal Financial Analytics, says Mr Trump has set up Mr Powell for blame if, or when, things go wrong. For all the president’s contradictions, he’s a master of political reality, she says.

Mr Trump doesn’t care what rates are. He cares about who voters think is to blame for slower growth and market turmoil, and he is determined to be sure it isn’t him,” she said. “What’s an astute politician to do? Find a fall guy distrusted by Republicans, Democrats, independents, populists, and progressives.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49415776

 

 

 

 

With Apple as a US co, USA doesn’t need enemies

The US-China tech war is all about “decoupling”. But Apple is sourcing its iPhone screens from a Chinese state-owned enterprise, according to the Nikkei Asian Review.

Apple is about to decide on whether to add BOE Technology Group, a leading display maker, to its next iPhone procurement list. If BOE passes the test, their organic light emitting displays, or OLED, will be used in two iPhone models to be released next year. If BOE gets the contract, it will mark a breakthrough for China’s industry.

BOE, which supplies the screens for Huawei’s latest phones, is an emerging industry leader. So from this perspective, Apple’s consideration is rational. But political imperatives could intervene as the US ramps up commercial pressure on China to contain its advances in high-tech.

If Apple chooses BOE’s screens, it could begin to challenge Samsung’s supremacy in the display sector. However, the Chinese company remains vulnerable to a potential clampdown from Washington, possibly restricting supplies of crucial materials from US companies such as Corning, 3M and Applied Materials.

Btw, Trump gave Apple the finger when it  asked him for exemption for some products. He told them to make them in the USA.

With cos like these, China doesn’t need enemies like Trump

Chinese businesses were obeying Trump even before Trump tweeted to US cos, (not Chinese cos)

Our great American companies are hereby ordered to immediately start looking for an alternative to China, including bringing your companies home and making your products in the USA.

Chinese companies are following MNCs in leaving China, and using alternative production bases to mitigate the impact of the trade war with the US

Since last June, 33 listed companies have informed China’s two stock exchanges of their plans to set up or expand production abroad, according to data compiled by the Nikkei Asian Review.

To be fair to them, multiple rounds of tariffs on Chinese goods are only part of the equation. Rising wages and other costs, are prompting Chinese companies to move out of the country.

Why global fish stocks not yet exhausted

Americans don’t care for fish.

How China is squeezing Trump’s balls

Tens of thousands of Chinese tourists are shunning the country as a holiday destination, and companies from Tiffany to Hyatt Hotels are counting the cost.

FT

It goes to say US business love tourists from China because on average they spend U$7,000 per including the costs of flights and accommodation, according to data from the US Travel Association.

After several years of double-digit growth, however, Chinese visitor numbers rose only 4% in 2017 and last year they declined for the first time since 2003. There were 2.99m arrivals in 2018, a drop of 6% from 2017. This trend is continuing this summer. US executives say the slowdown is weighing on profits.

Trump will cry “Uncle” when retailers renting space in Trump properties go bust.

Why Sino-US Cold War is great for our economy

It’ll do for our economy what the Vietnam War did for HK and our economies: spur economic growth

Further to Will the last US MNC leaving China switch off the lights, the charts below show almost nothing is made in America. Almost everything is made in China, and almost the rest in Asean i.e. countries like Vietnam, Indonesia and M’sia.

As the regional trading, financial heart and hi-tech manufacturing centre (Think Ang moh manufacturer employs more people here than in China and planning to employ a lot more) of Asean, we’ll benefit (Think Ang moh who bot S$73.8m flat).

Bang yr balls Oz-based TRE cybernut and funder “Oxygen”. Left S’pore a long time ago but still hates S’pore and wishes us ill. But still has CPF account. Used to evade Oz tax, it’s alleged by Secret Squirrel.

But of course short term we suffer: “Only cold spell coming, but not Winter,” says Heng. 

Vote wisely. Remember: IMF affirms support for PAP policies.

 

 

Will the last US MNC leaving China switch off the lights

Further to Apple planning to leave China with help of Taiwanese Foxconn, big US MNCs such as HP, Dell, Microsoft and Amazon are looking to shift big amounts of their production out of China, says the Nikkei Asian Review. The potential exodus reveals how the US-China tech war is accelerating the already underway cost-push migration of capacity to SE Asia.

The plans vary for each company.

HP and Dell, which together command about 30% of the global personal computer market, are planning to shift up to 30% of their notebook production out of China. Microsoft, Google and Amazon are considering moving some of their game console and smart speaker manufacturing out of the country.

Others are evaluating options.

These plans have not changed since President Donald Trump signalled at the G20 meeting in Japan a possible softening of a ban on US businesses exporting technology to China. US policy is too uncertain, it says

But can US MNCs manage to move? Nikkei doesn’t bother to analyse. Watch this space for analysis.

Huawei bites back

Huawei is planning extensive job cuts in the US, the Wall Street Journal has reported, citing anonymous sources. Huawei has declined to comment.

Not fear of the people singing but fear of US growling made Xi chicken-out

Further to this, Grandpa Xi heard the Hongkies sing, the truth seems to be a lot more complicated.

No, people power didn’t make Xi’s head prefect in HK suspend, as she claimed. rather than withdrawn the extradition bill, arguing the amendment was well intended but had been poorly communicated to the stupid ang moh tua kee Hongkies.

It all has to with America being the tua kee capable of destroying HK’s economy and damaging China. (Today, HK contributes a  mere 3% of China’s GNP, down from 20% in 1997 but when winter’s arrived in the form of an economic slow down and a trade skirmish with the US, every little bit helps.)

[T]he US, began eyeing the territory as another possible stick with which to beat Beijing in the trade war. Congress on Thursday introduced a bipartisan Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act that could remove the city’s unique trading privileges with the US if the government did not uphold its freedoms.

FT

As the BBC reported

US lawmakers have introduced a bill to amend the Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992. The amendment requires the US Secretary of State to “issue an annual certification of Hong Kong’s autonomy to justify special treatment” by the US.

“The bigger issue is probably that the global perception of Hong Kong as a separate part of China is under threat. And that includes official recognition of Hong Kong as a separate customs, immigration, tax and legal jurisdiction,” said David Webb, editor of Webb-site.com and long-time resident of Hong Kong.

“If Hong Kong loses its separate status then, for example, all of the duties that America has applied to Chinese exports would apply to Hong Kong exports. And any prohibitions on transfers of high grade technology to China would apply to Hong Kong as well.”

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48618585

The U-turn is a humiliation for Xi and Beijing. The people of HK will suffer.

Related post: Keeping power in a one-party state

 

Where China can make America Cry Uncle

Stop its students from studying in the USA

The United States is the number one destination for Chinese students seeking to study abroad.

They make up one-third of the total international body in the US and pay significant sums to study at top institutions.

BBC report

Serious money: billions

Winter is round the corner

Morgan Stanley warns on growing risk of US market “downturn”. It says its market cycle gauge moved from “expansion” to “downturn” for the first time since 2007.

Iran today, China tomorrow: What US will do

The US Department of Justice (even under wimp Obama) has gone after foreign banks for trading with countries like Iran: the global financial system being dominated by the US dollar. A French bank was crucified, StanChart bashed on the head etc because they did biz with countries the US didn’t like.

Financial system can be used against China too.

And if sells its US treasury notes, it hurts itself. Also what can it buy with the US$ it holds in lieu of notes? Japan and Germany will make China pay to hold their debt: already at negative yields. And if it sells the US$ it holds for euros etc, how is it going to fund its Belt and Road projects using those currencies.

Where US has to buy from China

Many Chinese surveillance cameras are fitted with artificial intelligence including facial recognition technology, and some can read simple faces, or can estimate age, ethnicity and gender.

There are more than 170 million surveillance cameras and the country has plans to install a further 400 million by 2020.

 

When China and US row

This is what happens to the world.

 

 

(Artist Walker Wright created the skeleton from driftwood while the vomit was made from washed-up plastic.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-48193779?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment_and_arts&link_location=live-reporting-story)

Meanwhile

 

 

 

 

Telsa’s made-in-China “brain”

Only in America: US trade officials have rejected Tesla’s request for relief from the 25% tariffs on the Chinese-made computer “brain” of its Model 3 electric vehicle, says Reuters. The tariff was imposed by The Donald to Make America Great Again.

Telsa is an all-American electric car manufacturer.

Americans love Chinese food

Chinese cooks were exempted from anti-immigration laws aimed at the the Yellow Peril.

In the 1880s, the US passed legislation barring Chinese workers from immigrating to the US. Only a few categories were exempt – including restaurateurs – and historians say this contributed to a boom in Chinese restaurants in the US.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47892747

How Microsoft is subverting China

We read a lot in reputable Western media about how China is attempting to subvert Western liberal democracies. But we don’t hear there about how the US (the Europeans, Antipodeans, Canadians and Japanese juz roll over and play dead ) is striking back, or that China may actually be only defending itself against US subversion.

TrumpLand is using a tactic that Sun Tzu would approve: providing tools to enable lazy, unpatriotic, entitled young Chinese tech workers to demand shorter working hours.

FT headline:

China tech worker protest against long working hours goes viral

Online campaign against working 9am-9pm six days a week hits nerve with youth

It reported that the Chinese organisers are rallying support via a project on GitHub, the Microsoft-owned collaboration platform for coders and developers. The project is called 996.icu, because by working 9am-9pm, six days a week , as the English version puts it, “you might need to stay in an Intensive Care Unit someday”. They insist this is not a political protest.

The movement is being organised by volunteers on collaborative platforms — primarily Microsoft’s GitHub, used for code-sharing, as well as Slack, used for messaging. Both are US tech cos.

JD.com said in response to media reports of employees complaining that their 996 schedule was a way of forcing resignations, “We will not force employees to work overtime, but we encourage everyone to fully invest themselves.” Define “fully invest themselves” please.

Workers of China unite against Chinese tech giants and Make America Great Again.

Downside of China-US trade deal for Asia and Europe

Citi says that should Chinese import capacity not increase and China imports up to an additional US$200bn worth of US goods — “the economies more exposed to China would be the most vulnerable to any adjustment in trade flows”.

Asian economies would be the most exposed if trade flows are adjusted from a proportional market share perspective, while European economies face similar losses across all scenarios.

America is Great Again but no thanks to Trump

Thank Texas, New Mexico and geology. And America’s God?

By 2024 Exxon and Chevron now expect to be pumping almost 2m barrels a day combined from the Permian, which straddles Texas and New Mexico. That is 60 per cent more than previously forecast.

The Permian as a whole will already produce about 4m b/d this year, meaning that this one region — if it were an Opec country — would be the third-largest producer in the cartel, behind only Saudi Arabia and Iraq.

FT report

One in the eye for Allah and his prophet Mohammed?

Mammon of America got a lot more power.

Only in America: Masters’ thesis is K-POP band

And it’s in an Ivy League uni.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-46381997

Recession or not? Conflicting signals

Believe financial indicators or believe real-life data? The models from JP Morgan premised on these different signals give wildly differing results

Economists at J.P. Morgan have developed a model based only on the historical predictive power of the stockmarket, credit spreads and the yield curve; that implies the probability of a recession in America in 2019 is as high as 91%.

[…]

A different model built by J.P. Morgan analysts, this time based on short-term economic indicators such as car sales, building permits and the unemployment rate, put the probability of recession in 2019 much lower, at 26%.

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2019/01/05/what-the-market-turmoil-means-for-2019

The Donald’s dignified response when Muslim woman said F***

Not surprising this behaviour from a Muslim woman Democrat.

Democrat Rashida Tlaib courted controversy when she used explicit language while calling for the president’s impeachment.

[…]

Michigan’s Ms Tlaib made the remark to supporters at a reception hours after she was sworn in on Thursday as one of the first two Muslim women members of Congress.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-46764052

And better still for Trump, she had to be of Palestinian origin

Michigan Democrat Rashida Tlaib has been sworn into office while wearing a traditional garment stitched by her Palestinian-born mother.

Ms Tlaib had been expected to take her oath on a Koran owned by Thomas Jefferson, but changed her mind, according to the Detroit Free Press.

Ms Tlaib and Minnesota’s Ilhan Omar became the first-ever Muslim female members of Congress on Thursday.

What is surprising is that The Donald was so restraint in his reaction.

The Republican president called her comments “highly disrespectful” to the US in a news conference on Friday.

“I thought her comments were disgraceful. This is a person I don’t know, I assume she’s new,” he told reporters.

“I think she dishonoured herself and dishonoured her family using language like that in front of her son and whoever else was there.”

BBC

He could have thrown red meat at his fans by tweeting. “I’m right to want to exclude Muslims from US. MAGA.” and “Had to be Muslim, Palestinian and Democrat congresswoman. MAGA”.

 

Trump wants cheaper oil?

What a f *** moron:

The US exported more petroleum than it imported for the first time in decades last week, marking an astonishing if momentary reversal from its longtime status as the world’s largest oil importer.

FT last week

Announcing OPEC’s  production cuts, the Saudi oil minister alluded to US exports by saying that US shale producers also benefit from an OPEC production cut.

Stable genius? What stable genius?

 

What’s gd for GM is gd for China

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Mr Trump said GM should stop making cars in China.

So no longer true that “What’s good for the country is good for General Motors, and vice versa.”? This statement was made by Charles E. Wilson while president of the General Motors Corporation, a leading United States automobile manufacturer in 1953. Wilson later became secretary of the federal Department of Defense.

The statement has frequently been misquoted as “What’s good for General Motors is good for the country.”

 

M’sia and S’pore are best ad for buying US

In July, Defence Minister Mohamad Sabu had revealed that only four out of 28 Russian-made Sukhoi Su-30MKM and MiG-29 fighter jets owned by the Royal Malaysian Air Force can fly.

Our aircraft F15s and F16s have no such problems.

Btw, the Russian planes were bot in exchange for palm oil.

Only America will visitors be asked if they are terrorists

The Esta (Electronic System for Travel Authorization) is an online US form, which some foreigners can use to waive their need for a full US visa.

One of the questions reads: “Do you seek to engage in or have you ever engaged in terrorist activities, espionage, sabotage, or genocide?”

One Scottish lady ticked “Yes”, by mistake she claimed.

Read whay happened next at https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-45678517.

It wasn’t pretty but sure is black comedy at its finest.

More evidence why USA is bad luck for HSBC

Further to HSBC refuses to learn lesson of past where I grumbled about HSBC’s latest foray into the US consumer mkt (third time after two failures), there’s this

HSBC has said some of its US customers’ bank accounts were hacked in October.

The lender said that the perpetrators may have accessed information including account numbers and balances, statement and transaction histories and payee details, as well as users’ names, addresses and dates of birth.

The BBC understands the firm believes that fewer than 1% of its American clients were affected.

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-46117963

In HK, HSBC uses feng shui experts. Time to fly one of them to the US.

HSBC refuses to learn lesson of past

That it destroys shareholder value by investing in US consumer banking or finance.

HSBC is getting back into US consumer lending almost a decade after it was forced to write off US$10.6bn for its last foray into that US market. In 2003 it purchased subprime lender Household, but the financial crisis resulted in a write-off of US$10.6bn of goodwill. The biz was closed in 2009.

Recently it

said that it is launching a digital lending platform for US customers in the first half of 2019. The platform will be powered by online lender Avant, which has already processed almost $5bn of loans for more than 600,000 customers.

“The US unsecured personal loan market is growing at 20 per cent annually and has surpassed $125 billion in balances,” said Pablo Sanchez, Regional Head of Retail Banking and Wealth Management for HSBC in the US and Canada.

“By adding personal loans to our expanding product suite, we’re meeting the needs of today’s consumers who want a safe, fast and easy way to borrow money online.”

Going online means the bank can address a far broader market than just those in the catchment areas of its almost 230 US branches. The bank, which already offers credit cards, in the US, did not give any target for how much it hopes to lend.

FT

Sounds it is trying to put into practice what playwright Samuel Beckett said

Try Again. Fail Again. Fail Better.

Third time trying in US. Anyone Remember Marine Midland Bank?

In 1980, it acquired

a 51 percent controlling interest in Marine Midland Corporation. By then, it was the 13th largest commercial bank in the United States, with about 300 banking offices across New York and about 25 offices in foreign countries. HSBC acquired full ownership in 1987.

Wikipedia

Ah well there’s the profits from Greater China to keep us shareholders contented. The investment of bank resources into the Pearl River Estuary hopefully makes up being swindled by the Yankees a third time.

Indians taking over the US of A

I kid u not.

The top three fastest-growing languages Indian. And there’s another four Indian languages in the top 10 fastest-growing languages (Chinese in only 7th).

And Indians vote for Trump.

United States of India?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-45902204

And notice that Muslims (Arabic speakers) are up there too.

S’pore invited to WTO reform meeting: US and China not

No, not fake news, but Canadian politics and diplomacy at work.

Canada has not invited the US or China to a high-level meeting on reforming the World Trade Organisation (WTO).

The country will host a “small group of like-minded” trade ministers in Ottawa in late October to discuss the global trade body.

Officials say countries like the US and China will be included at a later date in the reforms discussion process.

The European Union, Australia, Japan, Singapore, and South Korea are expected to attend.

Brazil, Chile, Kenya, Mexico, New Zealand, Norway, and Switzerland are also invited to the 24 and 25 October meeting.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45674264

The hero of the progressives and femnists around the world, PM Trudeau, must still be feeling upset, hurt and confused over having to lick Trump’s ass. Canada had to make concessions to the US in trade talks.

Crazy Pinoy Asians

Only in America.

Frustrated by the lack of Asian people on the marketing posters covering the restaurant, Jevh Maravilla and Christian Toledo took matters into their own hands.

The pair took a photo of themselves, added the McDonald’s branding and hung it on a bare wall in their local restaurant in Houston, Texas.

Now

One of the two friends who caught the attention of millions when they pranked their local McDonald’s has told the BBC that he “wants to push Asian representation further” in “TV and Hollywood”.

Jevh Maravilla, 21, added that “the past few weeks have felt like a dream.”

On the Ellen DeGeneres Show last week the men were each presented with cheques for $25,000 (about £19,000) from the company and told they would be starring in a marketing campaign.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45633982

In S’pore. they’d be caned for vandalism and flamed on social media and the internet for being Peeoys. Sad.

Jack Ma warns Sino US “war” could last 20 years

Trump’s serious about a trade war and Alibaba’s Jack Ma warns trade war could last 20 years.

“It’s going to be a mess.  It’s not a trade war, it’s about competition between two countries.”

,

Let’s thank Trump and Xi for rowing

Big league conference moved here from Beijing

Fallout from the trade war between the United States and China has prompted billionaire media executive Michael Bloomberg, the former mayor of New York City, to relocate a conference of global business and political leaders from Beijing to Singapore.

The event, touted as a rival to Davos, the elite annual conclave in Switzerland, is to take place in Singapore over two days in the first week of November.

Mr Bloomberg made the decision after a Chinese partner last week asked the organisers in New York to postpone the event, according to people with knowledge of the planning.

PAP govt must be doing shumething right, right?

SME caught in Sino Trump tarrif war

Joyce and her dad have only recently found that the speakers they make in their Chinese factory could see a 25% tariff placed on them when they are sold in the US. Speakers are on the most recent list issued by Washington that targets $200bn worth of Chinese goods.

The tariffs have yet to come into effect – in fact, they are currently only under consideration – but both Joyce and her dad are extremely worried about the impact on their company. More than half of their business in China consists of producing speakers for the US market.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45247000

Fortunately they have a plant in Vietnam:

they are already thinking of moving their production to Vietnam to mitigate the Chinese tariff threat.

Still they’ll suffer as these things take time.

Let’s wish them all the best.

Napoleon’s “Luck” and Trump the slave-owner

“I know he’s a good general, but is he lucky?”

― Napoléon Bonaparte

Cardinal Mazarin, chief minister of France, 1642-61, said the question to ask of a general is not, “Est-il habile?” Is he skilful? but “Est-il heureux?” Is he lucky?

Well Hilary certainly is not lucky.

If she had won, she’d have inherited a good economy. So good that

Walmart’s chief executive, said: “Customers tell us that they feel better about the current health of the US economy as well as their personal finances. They’re more confident about their employment opportunities.”

Mr McMillon’s comments echoed those from other retail sector bosses that have posted decent figures in recent days.

FT

Instead the Donald inherited the labours of a black man and his team.

The economy was going to be great guns and the tax cuts and deregulation is turbo charging making it in danger of overheating. The Democrats will inherit a bad economy, again.

The Republicans are lucky again.

No wonder the US progressives are so angry. Maybe they should start believing in a Christian God again?

 

Xi swallows Trump’s sperm

OK, OK it’s Ownself pay Ownself’s Fees.

China imposed a 25% tariff on US soya beans as part of the trade war, and a ship carrying soya beans from the US failed to dock in time to beat the tariff imposition.

One for the Xi?

Well a few weeks later, with the ship still hanging round the Chinese coast, the Chinese customer, state-owned conglomerate Sinograin is paying the US$6m tariff bill so it can get the beans.

More ships are on the way from the US.

FT

One for the Trump.

Trump wins bigly

Last night, S&P 500 gained 0.4%, eyes record high

Earlier in the day Trump ramped up trade rhetoric, and Chinese stocks slid (the CSI 300 index of big stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen fell 1.3%). Yuan kept falling.

Meanwhile reports keep coming out from Beijing that Xi is being criticised for going against a former principle of Chinese statecraft

Maintain a low profile. Never take the lead – but aim to do something big.

Deng Xiaoping

US winning big against China

In a series of tweets on Saturday, Trump said the US market was “stronger than ever”, while the Chinese market “has dropped 27 per cent in last 4 months, and they are talking to us”.

He’s wrong about the “4 months” though: Chinese stocks have lost $2.29tn in value since their high in January, falling 27%.

US elite education and AI

Big advances in AI research are more likely to come from the US due to our education system which needs improvement. But in use of AI in everyday life, China will lead

Cheetah Mobile’s Fu Sheng

Chinese tariffs on US soya backfiring

US soyabean prices plus the tariffs and freight to China were approaching parity with Brazilian soyabeans and shipping costs, limiting a further move upwards on the premium unless there was a dramatic shift in Chinese demand.

FT on Thourday

Chinese will be paying a lot more for soya and meat.

Right time for Trump to declare economic war?

Think about it.

The EU is really having problems getting its economy to fire.

The Chinese are trying to deleverage the economy (all those debts) but afraid that moving too fast could cause a really bad economic slowdown or recession leading to riots.

Meanwhile the US economy is firing on all cylinders, rocket-boosted by tax cuts. It might overheat.

So a trade war now for the US could cause the US to cool down while causing serious damage to Europe and China.

What better time then now for the US to start a war that damages everyone but affects it least?

Trump’s not a dotard after all?

Trump and Republicans take a leaf from PAP’s playbook

Remember the howls of protest from the ang moh tua kees and the other anti-PAP types when the PAP administration reduced state spending on wards that had Oppo MPs? Unfair they screamed.

Seems that ang mohs in the shape of Trump and the Republicans have done something similar. Their Christmas present tax cut clearly favoured loyal red (Republican-voting) states over Democratic blue ones.

Deductions of state and local income and property taxes, known as SALT, when calculating liability for Federal taxes is now limited to US$10,000. The provision hits hardest Democratic-leaning states with high incomes, high property values, and high taxes, like New York, New Jersey, and California.

FT reports that a New York based banker earning US$5m a year, will be paying an extra US$400-500,000 in taxes.

 

 

NYT is grinchy over Christmas present

Doesn’t like Trump’s Christmas present

“Well, we have a tremendous spirit for the tax reform,” Trump said. “This is going to be one of the great Christmas gifts to middle-income people.”

Die die must always say bad things about Trump or his works. But then FT reports that a New York based banker earning US$5m a year, will be paying an extra US$400-500000 in taxes

From NYT’s Dealbook

A merry “Taxmas,” but who’ll get the bigger present?

In a surely coincidental series of announcements, several companies — including AT&T, Comcast, Wells Fargo, Fifth Third Bancorp and Boeing — announced that they were giving their employees bonuses or higher wages, and increasing investment in light of the passage of the Republican tax bill.

An aim of the tax bill is to help American companies, in the belief that they will in turn bolster the economy as a whole. (Justin Fox of Bloomberg View writes that AT&T’s bonuses aren’t a gimmick, but a natural consequence of a corporate tax cut.)

But skeptics have asserted that those companies really just want to get on President Trump’s good side. (AT&T, for example, is seeking approval for its Time Warner deal despite a lawsuit by the Justice Department. At a news conference, Mr. Trump praised AT&T’s bonus and capital investment plans.)

Some back-of-the-envelope calculations, courtesy of Binyamin Appelbaum of the NYT:

A bigger question: How long can any economic stimulus from the tax bill last?

From Patricia Cohen of the NYT:

“The really hard question a year from now is going to be is how much of the miniboom we see is just an acceleration of stuff that was going to happen anyway or additional investment that is really going to spur the economy,” said Mihir A. Desai, a professor of finance at Harvard Business School. And finally The tax overhaul doesn’t change the fact that automation will still cause job losses, and that giants like Apple and Alphabet will still pay lower taxes than nascent rivals, Farhad Manjoo writes in his latest State of the Art. (NYT)

Xi’s an interner sui kee

Mr Xi has

more power than any Chinese leader since Mao Zedong. He is the first living leader to be mentioned in the party’s charter since Mao.

https://www.economist.com/news/china/21730590-does-mean-no-one-can-challenge-him-xi-jinpings-thinking-ranked-alongside-maos

But he and China were nowhere to be found last week when

Tech giants Microsoft, Facebook, Twitter and Google have agreed to do more to remove extremist content within hours of it being posted.

The accord was decided at a two-day meeting between the G7 nations and the tech firms, hosted on the Italian island of Ischia.

http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-41693777

Where’s China, Alibaba and Tencent? Not tua kee enough isit?

Xi and Jack Ma and the head of Tencent must be banging their balls balls that despite China’s billions of internet users it and its  leading cos are not an internet super power, unlike Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States, and Microsoft, Facebook, Twitter and Google.

They just like Putin and Russia: internet pygmies.

The real reason China snubbed PM over OBOR party?

The cybernuts KPKB that PM’s criticism of China’s actions in the South China Sea led to him being excluded from China’s big OBOR party.

Taz not the real reason. China thinks S’pore is the US of A’s running dog par excellence.

——————————————-

MHA said that Prof Huang had co-operated with foreign intelligence organisations and agents to “influence the Singapore Government’s foreign policy and public opinion in Singapore”.
Read more at http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/mha-s-statement-on-huang-jing-lky-school-professor-who-tried-to-9093570

—————————–

China routinely criticises the US for conducing spy missions over the South China Sea and East China Sea. Guess who is helping the US conduct spy missions over the South China Sea?

S’pore.

The BBC reported in Dec 2015

The United States has deployed a P-8 Poseidon spy plane to Singapore for the first time.

It is the latest in a series of US military actions seen as a response to China’s increasingly assertive claims over territory in the South China Sea.

The US says it will also base a military reconnaissance plane at Singapore’s Paya Lebar air base.

US P-8s already operate from Japan and the Philippines, and surveillance flights have taken off from Malaysia.

The P-8 was deployed on Monday, and will remain in Singapore until 14 December.

In addition to the P-8 deployment, the US says it will operate a military plane, either a P-8 Poseidon or a P-3 Orion, from Singapore for the foreseeable future, rotating planes on a quarterly basis.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-35036220

The flights from S’pore unlike that from M’sia and PeenoyLand are regular, not ad hoc.

The flights have one primary aim, monitoring the movements of Chinese nuclear subs based in Hainan.  They also are intended to show the finger to Chinese claims over the South China Sea.

Three littoral combat ships have also been deployed to Singapore since 2013. Now there are none, but two are going to be based here from next year http://thediplomat.com/2017/06/us-navy-plans-to-deploy-two-littoral-combat-ships-to-singapore-in-2018/

So of course China upset.

Btw, here’s serious money to be made from OBOR.

 

US of A got equivalent of our detention without trial

Wht don’t the ang moh tua kees don’t tell us that the USA has the equivalent of the Internal Security Act of detention without trial. They that stupid meh? Or their CIA masters order them not to diss the US of A.

Seriously, more evidence that Amos is a really dumb young adult to seek asylum in the land of the free “where the buffalo roam & the deer and the antelope play,Where seldom is heard a discouraging wordAnd the skies are not cloudy all day.”

Material witness warrants originate in the early 1800s, when getting hold of a witness who had left a jurisdiction before trial might involve a long day on horseback. They allowed lawmen to lock up key – “material” – witnesses at their convenience.

Sporadic use of the warrants caused little controversy until 9/11, when law enforcement seized on them as a means to detain terror suspects without probable cause. At least 70 men were held as material witnesses in the aftermath of the attacks while the Justice Department looked for evidence, according to a 2005 report by Human Rights Watch. A third of them were in prison for more than two months, some for more than six months, and one witness detainee spent more than a year in prison.

Someone arrested on a material witness warrant can in theory be detained indefinitely, and in most states detainees are not granted the basic constitutional protections afforded to suspects under arrest, such as Miranda rights, the right to a public defender, and the right to a prompt appearance before a judge.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-39662428

Emphasis mine.

 

A good word for “populism”

In S’pore the ang moh tua kees like Kitsten Han and Mad Dog Chee share something in common with the PAP: “populism” is a dirty word. Read the link as it shows why a “populist” policy can be the “right” policy.

---

Update at 1.30 pm: Defining “Populism” http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2016/12/economist-explains-18

———————————–

From NYT Dealbook (thru I’m sure gritted teeth as they are Hilary-lovers) another example where “populism” is good:

“We believe that populism’s role in shaping economic conditions will probably be more powerful than classic monetary and fiscal policies (as well as a big influence on fiscal policies).”

— A Bridgewater report on populism, by Ray Dalio, Steven Kryger, Jason Rogers and Gardner Davis.

World should want Trump to play more golf

World safer when he leaves it to experienced men to run the hegemon.

But no, Hilary and her friends diss making world a safer place.

Donald Trump’s golf hobby under scrutiny with Clinton tweet

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-39054971

The genius of Trump

US unions, part of the Democrats’ machine, find themselves on the side of Trump, an anti-union man that white union members support.

Trump’s Inroads in Union Ranks Have Labor Leaders Scrambling

By NOAM SCHEIBER, MAGGIE HABERMAN AND GLENN THRUSH

Many unions have interests aligned with the president’s and are adapting his themes to their objectives, even while denouncing much of his agenda.

NYT Dealbook

Trump pak China cont’d

NEWS ANALYSIS

Trump Injects High Risk Into Relations With China

By JANE PERLEZ AND CHRIS BUCKLEY

As he tosses aside decades of American trade policy, President Trump could also go his own way on other issues with China, including Taiwan and the South China Sea.

Hilary supporter buys US$12bn of stocks

Not fake news.

Warren Buffet’s $12 billion investment. “We’ve, net, bought $12 billion of common stocks since the election,” he said in an interview with Charlie Rose. – Bloomberg

It must have pained the NYT’s Dealbook to report the above.

The bottom line: Trump is not going to destroy the US economy. Taz fake analysis from Hilary’s friends in the NYT, Washington Post etc.

Trump Triumphant.

Double standards of US MSM

It’s not fake news whrn US MSM misreports news (Bit like our ST and other constructive, nation-building media).

No wonder one of Trump’s most senior advisers calls the NYT, the Washington Post and other uS MSM publications, the “opposition party”, not the Democrats: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38766620

The latest example

Then, for a brief moment, it looked as if the White House was declaring a trade war, when reports surfaced on Twitter that Sean Spicer, the White House press secretary, had said that a 20% tariff on Mexican imports would raise the necessary funds.

Those reports, it turned out, were not quite right. Mr Spicer in fact suggested that a deal was nearing on corporate tax reform. He implied that it would include the so-called “border-adjustment” Republicans in the House of Representatives have long sought. That change could pay for the wall, he said. (He later told a reporter he was only discussing “possible” policy moves).

http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2017/01/taxes-and-tariffs

The difference between “alternative news” and “fake news”

The “We love Hilary. Trump sucks” equates the term “alternative news” (used by Trump’s right hand woman when talking about the size of the inauguration crowd) with “fake news”. They have a point on the issue of the size of the crowds going by the photos.

But isn’t this a good example of the proper use of the term “alternative news”?

Mr Spicer said it was “unquestionable” that Mr Trump’s inauguration “was the most watched” ever.

Although Ronald Reagan’s was top in terms of television figures, attracting 41.8 million viewers, Mr Spicer pointed out that the 30.6 million who tuned in to see Mr Trump take the oath of office did not include the millions who watched the ceremony online.

(Extract from a BBC report)

The usual suspects are dissing this argument but really I can’t follow what they are trying to say. All I know is that they are not calling this “fake news” and this I suspect makes them madder.

The Trumpeters are telling a lot of lies but the “We love Hilary” MSM (because they are so emotional that Trump Triumphant cocked a snook at them and won) are letting the Trumpeters get away with murder.

From NYT Dealbook on another reason ehy MSM is so upset:

DRIVEN TO DISTRACTION

Trump Shows How to Smother a Scandal: With a Bigger Story

By BRENDAN NYHAN

As one would-be controversy rapidly succeeds another, it’s clear that there’s only so much the news media and the public can focus on at once.

Trump closes down China

Came across this on Facebook posted by FB pal who didn’t attribute it

Trump’s latest Tweet:

“One week after I take office, China will completely shut down. Factories will stop production, shops will close, stock markets will not trade, and government will grind to a halt.

The wealthy will flee overseas with their families, citizens desperately trade the RMB for foreign currency, doors all across the country will be plastered with red notices. Supermarket food stock will be depleted and food prices will rise.

The people who stay will have nothing to do except day-long drinking and gambling. There will be sound of gunfire on the streets for days!”

China foreign ministry replied on Weibo: “That’s Chinese New Year, you dumb ass.”

A rounding-up error?

Come on NYT. I didn’t hear u complaining about how the Clintons made money and peedled influence. And anyway, really rich people don’t know how much they are worth.

Steven Mnuchin, Treasury Nominee, Failed to Disclose $100 Million in Assets By ALAN RAPPEPORT Mr. Mnuchin, who is testifying before the Senate Finance Committee, also did not list his role as a director of an investment fund in the Cayman Islands on a questionnaire.

 

Trump is the Greatest

“Oh to be a sketchwriter in America” – declares Quentin Letts in the Mail. “Mr Trump is a politician, Jim, but not as we know it,” he writes. “He doesn’t do wriggling and lawyerly evasions. He doesn’t do dainty detours or (ridiculous thought) charm. He just comes out and smashes his critics on the nose.”

BBC

Mad Dog is Trump’s restrainer

No, not our Dr Chee but “Mad Dog” Mattis or James Mattis, the retired general nominated to be secretary of defence

When Democrats and Republicans look to “Mad Dog” Mattis to restraint Trump, you know there’s a problem.

“Mad Dog” Mike is the nickname of Mattis. A soldier’s soldier, and a well-regarded military intellectual and strategist, he was fired by Obama for adopting “aggressive” tactics against Iran when he was commander of Central Command which is responsible for the Middle East theatre.

When the Progressives lie, it’s not a lie

See how the NYT Dealbook reports and analyses the news when a standard bearer of the hard left misrepresents the truth about Trump’s appointees. If it had been Trump who got his facts wrong, I’m sure the headline would be screaming that Trump is lying.

LKY has a point about muzzling the media

Trump Appointees’ Taxes

“Not only is Donald Trump giving a gang of billionaires control of our government, he’s offering them a special tax break just for signing up.”

So said Senator Elizabeth Warren, Democrat of Massachusetts, when criticizing how the tax code allows government appointees to defer paying taxes on stock sales.

Not true, says Andrew Ross Sorkin. The crucial point is that the taxes are deferred — not eliminated.

If there is a benefit, it allows executives to diversify out of their own stock. But if they want to cash out and buy a house, for example, they will pay the full tax bill. Some, like Steven T. Mnuchin, the nominee for Treasury secretary, may actually lose money on some of the assets they have to sell because their holdings are in illiquid assets, like private equity funds, that have to be offloaded at a discount.

Of all the potential conflicts of interest that Mr. Trump and his cabinet picks may present, the tax treatment they receive in this instance is not one of them, Mr. Sorkin writes.

Trump Triumphant

‘Trump Effect’ Is Already Shaping Events Around the World By PETER BAKER Donald J. Trump’s election is influencing markets, currencies and government policies as the world bets on how he will rewrite international rules.

Trump pak China, US regulations/ Unionises his htl workers

From NYT Dealbook: By Amie Tsang

President-elect Donald J. Trump wants to shake up both relations with China and regulatory issues, and he’s not doing it by halves.

Mr. Trump has named:

• Peter Navarro, a strident critic of China, to lead a new White House office overseeing American trade and industrial policy.

• Carl Icahn, the investor, to serve as a special adviser on regulatory issues.

Mr. Navarro, a professor at the University of California, Irvine, is the only credentialed economist in Mr. Trump’s inner circle. He has argued that China is effectively waging economic war by subsidizing exports to the United States and impeding imports from it. He has also made a documentary called “Death by China,” in which an animation of a Chinese knife stabs a map of the United States.

Some economists actually say that automation is a bigger threat to people’s jobs than globalization.

The appointment highlights a division among Mr. Trump’s economic advisers.

Like Mr. Navarro, Wilbur Ross, the president-elect’s choice for commerce secretary, favors increased trade restrictions. But Mr. Trump’s broader circle of advisers is dominated by proponents of free trade.

Mr. Icahn, who made his fortune as a “corporate raider,” will play a role in the selection of a new leader for the Securities and Exchange Commission. That is the regulator that serves as the referee for his battles with corporations.

His appointment has renewed concerns about conflicts of interest in the administration. It comes just as the Trump Organization has resolved labor disputesthat could have posed other conflicts for the president-elect.

One of those labor agreements provides a union contract to workers at the Trump International Hotel Las Vegas (the hotel had previously refused to bargain with the union). The second agreement eases a hurdle to unionization at a recently opened Trump hotel in Washington.

Eric Trump also said that he had decided to stop directly soliciting contributions for his charitable foundation because he recognized that his status as the president-elect’s son means that donors could try to use him to gain access to his father.

Trump has a point on China stealing US jobs

In fact three points that mercantilists (think Germany, China and the PAP administration) would agree with.

For President-elect Donald Trump, the biggest issue in the US relationship with China is trade. Chinese imports do cause job losses in the US: up to 2.4m jobs may have been lost, directly and indirectly, as a consequence of imports from China.

Between 1999 and 2011 America lost almost 6m manufacturing jobs in net terms. That may not be as dramatic as it sounds, since America is a large and dynamic place where around 5m jobs come and go every month. Still, when David Autor of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), David Dorn of the University of Zurich and Gordon Hanson of the University of California, San Diego, looked into the job losses more closely, they found something worrying. At least one-fifth of the drop in factory jobs during that period was the direct result of competition from China.

Moreover, the American workers who had lost those jobs neither found new ones close by nor searched for work farther afield. They either swelled the ranks of the unemployed or, more often, left the workforce … In subsequent research, the authors found that lost factory jobs also had a depressing effect on aggregate demand (and thus non-manufacturing jobs) in the affected areas. In total, up to 2.4m jobs may have been lost, directly and indirectly, as a consequence of imports from China.

http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21707834-truth-and-myth-about-effects-openness-trade-coming-and-going

And

And

But mercantilists have to ask themselves one question. In a world where the US$ is the hegemon and which the global hegemon can print at will, they are lending the hegemon the money that the hegemon uses to buy stuff from them: is this wise?

Remember that the Anglo-Saxon kings defaulted on their loans to the Lombards, bankrupting them. OK, OK, it’s the Anglo-Norman kings of England.

How Trump can have and eat his cake, without global tariff wars?

A central idea is that goods would be taxed based on where they were consumed rather than where they were produced, meaning that imports would be taxed by Washington while exports would not. Tax experts call this a destination-based consumption tax.

From NYT Dealbook:

New Approach to Corporate Tax Law Has House G.O.P. Support By STEVE LOHR A business tax overhaul championed by a Berkeley professor could advance President-elect Donald J. Trump’s job-creation agenda without tariffs or presidential deal-making.

Lips to teeth: US’s and S’pore’s position on Taiwan

====================================

If the lips are gone, the teeth will grow cold
唇亡齿寒

is a chinese saying.

=========================

The US attitude to Taiwan since it was set by Jimmy Carter’s administration in 1979 could be described as constructive hypocrisy. America professes to support Taiwanese democracy and sells it arms to defend itself from its powerful neighbour, while at the same time adhering to a “one-China” policy and refusing to recognise Taiwan as an independent country.

FT

We don’t support Taiwanese democracy (In fact, the PAP and the constructive, nation-building media sneers at it afraid that the sheep S’porean Chinese voters will realise that Chinese can do democracy. Indians always have done democracy (The elites love to talk cock, sing song, steal from the poor  and forget about economic development: think India.) And the Malays don’t matter going by the PAP’s decision to reserve presidency for them every now and then).

And to my knowledge we doesn’t sells arms to Taiwan.

But S’pore adheres to a “one-China” policy and refuses to recognise Taiwan as an independent country. And oh yrs , we train out troops there and send our most advanced weaponry there,

We really old friend of China?

As Global Times right says:

Singapore should learn the lesson that, if it tries to challenge China on important issues, it has to be prepared to bear consequences.

Singapore has long attempted to serve as a bridge or middleman between China and the US, and the mainland and Taiwan. But this will by no means work in the future.

The bilateral relationship used to be based on private ties between former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping* and late Singaporean prime minister Lee Kuan Yew. But nowadays, a simply state-to-state relationship is more feasible.

There are reports that S’pore executives and business people living in China are worried that they will become the next victims of China’s anger. They only need to see what Lotte and K-pop singers are experiencing in China to see what can happen when China is angry with another govt. SGDaily’s FB wall has a FT article on waz happening to Lotte and K-pop singers in China: their balls are being squeezed hard, really hard.

Related article: http://www.scmp.com/business/article/2053679/weaponising-hong-kongs-free-port-status

====================

*And Jiang his successor too. Harry’s daughter once wrote in ST why Dr Goh Keng Swee’s state funeral had to wait because her dad tot he had to meet Jiang.

Remember at Harry’s funeral, no senior Chinese leader came.

US liberal MSM caught lying again?

From NYT’s Dealbook

The audacity of fiscal hype? – President-elect Donald Trump’s plans might not blow up the budget. “The proposed tax cuts may not have as large of an impact on the government’s finances as some analysts project,” U.S. economists at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a report. – Bloomberg

“If you don’t read the newspaper, you’re uninformed. If you do read it, you’re misinformed.”

What do you think of Denzel Washington’s comments?

Update at 5.08pm:

Salena Zito, writing in the Atlantic magazine, summed up Trump’s election campaign by saying: “The press takes him literally, but not seriously; his supporters take him seriously, but not literally.”

But can the press really stop taking literally what the president-elect says?

That’s quite a dilemma for the next four years

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38188074

Don’t tell Trump but US is sua kee, China tua kee

One country [China] consumes 40 to 50%  of the world’s commodities. As we saw in coal this year, when China changes policy, it can turn a market upside down,

says Ivan Glasenberg, the CEO of mining and trading house, Glencore.

I remember the time when the world’s commodity markets danced to the tune of the US economy. So should The Donald.

And how can the US be the number one economy in the world?

In 1980, China had 10 percent of America’s GDP as measured by purchasing power parity; 7 percent of its GDP at current U.S.-dollar exchange rates; and 6 percent of its exports. The foreign currency held by China, meanwhile, was just one-sixth the size of America’s reserves. The answers for the second column: By 2014, those figures were 101 percent of GDP; 60 percent at U.S.-dollar exchange rates; and 106 percent of exports. China’s reserves today are 28 times larger than America’s.

After all

China is number 1

• Manufacturer:
• Exporter:
• Trading nation:
• Saver:
• Holder of U.S. debt:
• Foreign-direct-investment destination:
• Energy consumer:
• Oil importer:
• Carbon emitter:
• Steel producer:
• Auto market:
• Smartphone market:
• E-commerce market:
• Luxury-goods market:
• Internet user:
• Fastest supercomputer:
• Holder of foreign reserves:
• Source of initial public offerings:
• Primary engine of global growth:
• Economy:

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/09/united-states-china-war-thucydides-trap/406756/

And

A study by the Rhodium Group last month found that Chinese investment into the US exceeded US investment into China for the first time in 2015.

FT

The US is the number one  economy because it’s the biggest importer using China’s and other countries money to buy their exports.

“The US is the number one economy in the world, and its political power and military power are based on its economy.

German industrialist quoted by FT

But Trump is happy because he can nuke China to the stone age before China can launch a single nuclear missle against the US. Now taz tua kee.

Yes We Can

Have Economic Stimulus NYT Dealbook By Amie Tsang

Sell government bonds and pile into stocks that will benefit from a free-spending Trump presidency. That’s the verdict from global investors at the moment.

The financial crisis led to a wave of activism from global central banks to make money available. Investors followed their lead, loading up on long-term government bonds while growth was stagnant and political risk abounded. These investors now seem to be on board with Donald J. Trump’s promise to stimulate the economy.

They are also betting on the price of commodities important to the building business like copper, in anticipation of a pickup in government spending. Bank stocks have been bolstered by the belief that the industry will face less regulatory pressure. Higher interest rates would also help their lending margins.

This is not without its risks. If bond yields — which move up as prices go down— shoot up too sharply, investors in the stock market could get jittery and turn tail, leaving chaos in their wake. A sharp increase in bond market rates will also put pressure on emerging markets if investors are drawn by higher interest rates and a stronger American dollar.

Trumpnomics: Sounds about right this analysis

Possibility of stagflation. Short-term gain for long-term pain? That’s the view of economists at Goldman Sachs, who argue that Mr. Trump’s policies would offset any positive impacts over the long-run. – Bloomberg

NYT Dealbook

And no leh, Jeff, markets are not easily seduced. They are worse than hookers. They’ll change their opinions and analyses to vindicate the victor.

By Amie Tsang

Stock markets are easily rattled and they don’t like uncertainty. But they have been on the up since election results came in, so does that mean we are in for more of the same this week and in the long term?

We don’t know. But, Jeff Sommer says, it does mean that markets are easily seduced. The uncertainty around how Donald J. Trump could mean that the bar was set low for him — and the appearance of normality is enough to keep bears at bay. The Republican sweep of Congress also makes it less likely that there will be gridlock in Washington.

And then there are the campaign promises that could promote growth and corporate profits. (Some of them could do the opposite, too.)

Even if we knew how all of them were going to be enforced, it would be hard to know exactly what the result would be.

And markets have historically been bad at pricing in hard-to-predict seismic events. So what do we do?

“After so much inaccurate prognostication about what the near-term market effects of a Trump victory would be, having some modesty about our ability to predict how his policies will play out in the years ahead is very much in order,” Neil Irwin writes.

While this plays out, here are some of the battlegrounds that lie ahead.

Tax Cuts

Republicans want tax cuts and the president-elect wants tax cuts. But they don’t always want quite the same ones.

Mr. Trump has said he was determined to get multinational companies to pay their American tax bills every year. The sting would not be as great if he also cut corporate rates and allowed credits for foreign taxes paid.

House Republicans have been pushing for a territorial system, in which businesses are taxed solely on goods and services sold in the United States. But that encourages businesses to shop around for lower tax rates, ultimately shifting profits and jobs overseas — not ideal for a president who wants more jobs in the United States.

Mr. Trump is expected to insist on a deduction for interest paid on debt-financed projects, a provision dear to real estate developers. But otherwise, he may keep his ideas broad, leaving Congress to pin down the details.

The Federal Reserve

Mr. Trump has embraced criticism that the Federal Reserve is creating more problems than it is solving, and his advisers would like to rein in the institution. Mr. Trump could overhaul its leadership, filling a majority of the Fed’s seven-seat board with his nominees over the next 18 months, even replacing Janet L. Yellen, the chairwoman, in February 2018.

Fed officials have opposed increased congressional oversight, saying that would infringe on the central bank’s operational independence, and they are now facing the possibility of a harder push for changes from emboldened Republicans. From NYT Dealbook

Simpsons’ 2000 episode tells us what Trump’s economic legacy will be

Bart To The Future, first broadcast in 2000, showed how the lives of the main characters might turn out.

A grown-up Lisa Simpson was seen as the White House incumbent, explaining to her staff she has “inherited quite a budget crunch from President Trump”.

She then asks her secretary of state, childhood friend Milhouse Van Houten, how bad the country’s finances are as a result of Trump’s time in office. He replies: “We’re broke.”

http://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-37936369

Well his plans for massive infrastructure spending while cutting taxes sure look that the US will have a massive deficit wen he leaves office.

http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21710013-congress-can-constrain-only-parts-donald-trumps-economic-policy-strap-up

And

Add in the infrastructure spending Mr Trump also wants, and the economy could get much hotter ..

For the record, his infrastructure plans (up to US$1 trillion) are a lot bigger than Socalist Bernie’s plan.

Update at 2pm: A wave of selling sweeping across bond markets resumed on Monday as investors continued to digest the impact of a Donald Trump presidency.

[S]ince inflation and interest rates are seen as likely to rise, investors are seeking assets with a more attractive return. With a Trump administration promising economic stimulus through spending and tax cuts, investors are worried about putting money into low fixed-payment assets, such as bonds.

How Microsoft avoids US taxes using S’pore

The US started kicking the Swiss banks in the head over US citizens evading US taxes via Swiss banks.  Will the US “tighten the screws” on the likes of MS, and will S’pore get caught in the row? Watch and wait.

The hearing featured a case study involving Microsoft’s shifting of IP rights for software developed in America, and the earnings that flow from them, to divisions in lower-tax Puerto Rico, Ireland and Singapore. One witness, Professor Stephen Shay of Harvard Law School, pointed out that in 2011 these three units enjoyed an average effective tax rate of just 4% and managed to book $15.4 billion of pre-tax profit—55% of Microsoft’s worldwide total. Their 1,914 employees generated an eyebrow-raising $8m of profit each, compared with $312,000 each for the 88,000 working in the rest of Microsoft. Whether or not this apportionment of profits complies with transfer-pricing rules, it is “not consistent with a commonsense understanding of where the locus of Microsoft’s economic activity…is occurring,” said Mr Shay. The claim that fair transfer prices were paid is “just not credible given the bottom-line outcome,” he added.

In 2011, the Senate investigators asserted, Microsoft’s parent company was paid $4 billion by Ireland and Singapore for rights that the two subsidiaries used to generate three times that amount in royalty payments from other bits of the group …  A Microsoft man who was grilled at the hearing said the staffers’ sums ignored hefty, regular “buy-in” payments that the foreign subsidiaries have to make to the parent.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/schumpeter/2012/09/corporate-tax-avoidance

Why Lord Rothschild is focusing on US

Recently Lord Rothschild, a 70-something deal-maker and shrewd investor, teamed up with the Rockefeller* family office. He said the US was the place to invest in because of its growing oil production. The two charts in this link explains what he means.

Well Temasek is buying into North America, though its flagship investment is one dog with fleas https://atans1.wordpress.com/2012/05/27/temasek-the-gd-the-bad-and-the-ugly/

Interestingly Lord Rothschild, unlike Temasek, has no plans to invest in Europe. BTW, he has a palace on the Greek island of Corfu. Time to buy the island?

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*The first rich Rockeffer made his fortune in oil refining and distribution.

Financial secrecy: S’pore is only 6th

In a new index on financial secrecy, S’pore is only ranked sixth. The Financial Secrecy Index 2011, puts Switzerland on top, followed by the Cayman Islands, Luxembourg, Hong Kong and the USA.

The Tax Justice Network, the group behind the report, says, “[A] secrecy jurisdiction provides facilities that enable people or entities escape or undermine the laws, rules and regulations of other jurisdictions elsewhere, using secrecy as a prime tool.”

The government’s policy is to encourage the growth of wealth management here so that S’pore can be the Switzerland of the East. Well, the central bank and the Attorney-General’s Chambers have a lot of work to do to make S’pore a better secrecy jurisdiction. Hong Kong is a better secrecy juridiction than S’pore. And S’pore and Hong Kong are rivals in the race to be the leading wealth management centre in East Asia.

At least, this report shows S’pore is a better global citizen than Switzerland, Hong Kong and the USA. But where’s the money in being a responsible, decent chap?

Side-effect of Japanese reconstruction

Higher US (and global) interest rates are in the offing as Japanese govt and investors sell US treasuries to raise funds for reconstruction. Remember Japan is the second largest investor in US government paper. China is the largest.

Reasoning.

If so, S’pore’s interest rates could go up. What with Mah Bow Tan building more HDB flats and plenty of private supply coming on-stream, we could be in for some interesting times. And all these before factoring-in a possibility of a US recession as interest rates rise,