atans1

Trump wins bigly

In China on 07/08/2018 at 4:49 am

Last night, S&P 500 gained 0.4%, eyes record high

Earlier in the day Trump ramped up trade rhetoric, and Chinese stocks slid (the CSI 300 index of big stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen fell 1.3%). Yuan kept falling.

Meanwhile reports keep coming out from Beijing that Xi is being criticised for going against a former principle of Chinese statecraft

Maintain a low profile. Never take the lead – but aim to do something big.

Deng Xiaoping

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  1. We may be in the middle of a 20-year secular bull ala the 80s & 90s…

    Probably a moderate recession or sharp idiosyncratic crash in the early-2020s to remove some of the froth and then it’s off to the races for the rest of the New Roaring 20s.

    2008 may be seen retrospectively as the Panic Of 1907 where Ben Bernanke acted similarly to JP Morgan to pump money into “too big to fail” companies. Of course JP Morgan did it using private money (his own plus other wealthy bankers & industrialists) while Bernanke used QE & the “full faith and credit of the US govt”.

    2030s will be the dangerous period. Those about to retire or in the early years of retirement will be hit hard by this sequence of returns risk i.e. Gen X and late-Boomers. If PAP haven’t solved the HDB 99-yr lease by this time, there will be hell to pay.

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