Vaccination: no silver bullet/ India shows an alternative

Further to MTF: It’s Time for a Tiger” and “Give MTF beers, give them Tigers”, more reasons to buy PM-in-waiting Larry Wong and his team of millionaire ministers more Tiger Beers?

Look at our vaccination rate:

Still contagious: covid-19 jab efficacy

But the problem for our millionaire ministers and us (and the world in general) is that vaccination is no silver bullet against Covid-19 as once thought:

Still contagious: covid-19 jab efficacy

Fully vaccinated people with breakthrough covid-19 infections were as contagious as unvaccinated people, a British study published on Thursday found. Infections cleared faster in those who had been vaccinated, but their peak viral load was similar to the unvaccinated. The vaccinated and unvaccinated therefore infected a similar share of household members. What made a difference, however, was whether those household contacts had been vaccinated themselves. About 25% of vaccinated contacts tested positive, compared with 38% of unvaccinated contacts.

One reason for the disheartening results is the waning efficacy of covid-19 jabs against infection. Data from the household contacts suggested protection weakened within three months of a second dose. This means that people who are particularly vulnerable to severe covid might need a booster shot earlier than the prevailing six-month cut-off. Masks, ventilation and social distancing may be necessary at times, even in places, such as Britain, with high vaccination rates.

Economist Expresso

So maybe no Tiger Beers for the PAP millionaire ministers for getting us vaxxed?

But the alternative was (or is) for nature to run its course, as in India, and depend on immunity via catching Covid-19:

The world watched anxiously in April and May, when the caseloads were climbing almost vertically. The terror was justified. India was gripped by the first outbreak of the Delta variant (briefly called “the Indian variant”, until the WHO insisted on switching to Greek letters). Its ferocity taught lessons that some parts of the world are still learning. Indians died in untold numbers. To judge by the number of excess deaths, something like 2.3m lost their lives to the disease. Those who survived rued the government’s failure to procure vaccines earlier, when India had positioned itself as a pharmaceutical factory for the world. The rate of vaccinations went from a trickle to an erratic drip, as systems of every kind shut down. And then in June, almost exactly as fast as the wave of infections had shot up, it shot down again. Not 10% of the population had been vaccinated (see chart). Within two weeks it was back down to pre-Delta levels. No thanks to any medical intervention.

https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2021/10/29/how-did-india-beat-covid-19

Note India has been vaccinating like hell since then and now 23.4% or 323m people have been fully vaccinated.

So maybe the PAP ministers deserve their Tiger Beers, after all?

What do you think?

Tesla is King of the Road

In S’pore

The number of new Teslas on Singapore roads has risen more than ten-fold to 487 in the third quarter, from just 30 in the first half, data from Singapore’s Land Transport Authority (LTA) showed.

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-ev-sales-boom-singapore-pushing-rivals-models-off-streets-2021-10-28/

And globally

This week, Tesla surpassed $1 trillion in market value, overshadowing the combined value of five of its biggest rivals, Toyota Motor Corp (7203.T), Volkswagen AG (VOWG_p.DE), Daimler AG (DAIGn.DE), Ford Motor Co (F.N) and General Motors (GM.N).

Reuters

It actually is more valuable than the other top nine carmakers, ending with Ford.

MTF: It’s Time for a Tiger” and “Give MTF beers, give them Tigers”

The Ministerial Task Force got one thing right: Heineken beer sales here were back were back above the pre-pandemic level. That’s a major achievement as the central bank says that domestic GDP is 10% below the pre-pandemic level, while GDP, as a whole, will soon be above the pre-pandemic level because of exports.

Heineken had a bad set of results (37.4% decline in Asian sales). Analysts did not expect the bad numbers that resulted from the return of pandemic restrictions in Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia and Malaysia. Heineken has a very strong presence in Vietnam, one of its largest markets globally.

But beer sales in Singapore, South Korea and Laos were back above pre-pandemic levels.

So the Ministerial Task Force got one thing right. So for them: “It’s Time for a Tiger” and “Give that man a beer, give him a Tiger”. Remember these slogans?

For those not in the know, Heineken brews Tiger Beer, in addition to Heineken, Amstel and Sol brands.

Key question for the developing world’s energy transition

Where’s the money coming from?

A key pledge ahead of an upcoming climate change conference has still not been met and the money is not sure to be available before 2023.

The UK government has set out a new financing plan ahead of next week’s climate change conference – COP26.It talks of how developed countries hope to deliver $100bn a year in climate finance to developing countries.

The original aim was for that target to be reached by 2020.But the financing plan said the target looked “unlikely” to be met but that it was “confident” the target would be hit by 2023.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-59040538

99-year HDB leases would sound good to Berliners

German’s prefer to rent property, not buy them.

In Berlin, where about 85% of Berliners rent, its not a good idea today. Rents have risen by 36% in the past five years, based on median asking prices.

Our HDB home ownership scheme has been criticised by the usual anti-PAP suspects who say that it’s a scam because after 99 years, the apartment reverts to the state. The amount that the “owner” pays to own it for 99 yrs is rental.

Well then the HK govt also cheats its people: there leases are for 99 yrs. And govts in China and Indonesia (among others) also sell land for periods of up to 60 yrs though in these places, there is often an “understanding” that the lease will be renewed upon paying a premium.

Whatever, the “rent”/ “ownership” costs are more predictable unless interest rates start becoming as volatile as electricity tariffs.

I think Berliners would vote for a city government that announces an HDB policy like ours. LOL.

What we and the US have in common

The willingness to spend and spend on the armed forces. In 2019, the military expenditure of Singapore was estimated to be around 3.2% of GDP. In 2020, the military expenditure of the United States was estimated at 3.7 % of its GDP.

I am firmly persuaded that among nations, weakness will never be a foundation for security.

Viscount Palmerston, British PM in the 19th century

One of my favourite novelists George MacDonald Fraser described Palmerston as viewing the world like a sheriff in a cowboy town viewing his town.

China has kept its official defense spending at around 1.3% of its GDP in recent years, which is far below the average global level of 2.6%. But analysts believe that like many other Chinese figures is BS. The real number is a lot higher.

Example

In 2019, Peter Robertson, a professor from the University of Western Australia, argued that using conventional currency conversion as opposed to more accurate “purchasing power parity” (PPP) exchange rates dramatically understated China’s military capabilities and that China’s real military spending was equivalent to US spending of $455 billion, calculated from a PPP perspective.^[20]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_budget_of_China#Unofficial_estimates

The variant of Covid-19 from India threatens more than lives

(Make sure to read the concluding paragraph)

The decision to allow in vaccinated travellers from India reminded me that our PM who presides over a cabinet and govt that die-die must defend the Ceca agreement with India, said recently that the Delta variant (aka the Indian variant) was a game changer in Covid-19 management.

He said

with vaccination, COVID-19 is no longer a dangerous disease for most of us.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/pm-lee-full-speech-covid-19-path-new-normal-2232531

But

[T]he emergence of the Delta variant has put us in a changed situation.

The Delta variant is highly infectious, and has spread all over the world. Even with the whole population vaccinated, we still will not be able to stamp it out through lockdowns and SMMs. Almost every country has accepted this reality.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/pm-lee-full-speech-covid-19-path-new-normal-2232531

What he didn’t tell us is that thanks to the Indian variant (aka Delta variant) of Covid-19 the global economy is stalling. In it’s latest guesstimate, the IMF Those for Japan and parts of developing Asia were downgraded on account of the spread of the Delta variant of the coronavirus and the imposition of restrictions on activity. 

The two possibilities stagflation or a global recession is not good news for global markets.

Whatever, in allowing in travellers from India, the PAP govt is doubling down on its love of all things from India. Imagine the uproar from S’poreans if one of these travellers is infected with Covid-19 and this results in another lockdown that is not really a lockdown: PAP govt’s idea of living with Covid-19?

Interesting chart on three commodities

Goldman Sachs is talking about a new commodities supercycle.

But looking at this chart, we may be looking at a copper supercycle. Remember the green economy need a lot of of dirty copper.

But given China’s property slowdown (meltdown?), I doubt iron ore is in a supercycle.

I’m an agnostic about a food supercycle.

Time to buy a renewable ETF or trust?

The sector has gone to sleep as fossil fuel stocks cheong.

Must ask Chris K waz a good UK renewable investment trust, or a good renewable passive ETF?

Sell Gold, Buy Bitcoin?

Recently, I wrote

I suspect that cryptos are now the real hedge against inflation or stagflation: Bitcoin is above US$60,000.

Stagflation? What stagflation?

Look at this

Bitcoin is trading around US$67,000 while investors angst over inflation and stagflation.

What are basic standards of living? Let the debate begin

A recent report by some academics on basic standards of living (Three cheers for them on insisting that “basic” doesn’t mean just living above poverty levels*) that have gotten the anti-PAP usual suspects on social media and cyberspace cheering and the PAP govt upset.

A study has found that parents with two children aged two to 12 will need to each earn $2,906 a month to meet a basic standard of living
For a couple with two children aged seven to 18, they will need at least S$6,426 a month to meet their household’s basic needs
A single parent living with a young child will need at least S$3,218 a month 
The Ministry of Finance has criticised the study, done by the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy
It said the findings may not be reflective of the circumstances of lower-income families
 

Read more at https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/parents-2-children-need-earn-about-s5800-6400-monthly-basic-standard-living-study

“What People Need in Singapore: A Household Budget Study (2021)” focuses mainly on two types of households, parents with two children (aged seven-12 and 13-18) and single parents with one child (aged two-six).

But as I don’t fall within the above two categories, I’ll talk about “Single elderly person” category.

Two elderly persons living on less than budget of “one elderly person”

Going by the figure that an oldie like me or my mum supposedly needs (I look only at the bottom line numbers, not the breakdowns), MoF has a point (See ** , juz about) about the accuracy of the figures.

Between me (late 60s) and my mum (coming to 99), we live comfortably within the $1421.30 figure meant for only 1 retiree. And we exceed by $3.40, the figure without housing, healthcare, education and childcare: $1196.59): I assme $1200 for our basic monthly needs. And that includes food for our S’pore Special that has been mistaken for a Thai Ridgeback or a Dobie.

It’s not as though we are that frugal or live just above the poverty line. Yesterday, we had duck’s breast for dinner and tonight we’ll have pork ribs for dinner. Both from the Cold Storage deli, not Fairprice.

Of course, our basic-living-expenses budget excludes the costs of our helper and my mum’s hospitalisation bills (SingHealth and private), and my subs for the FT and Economist. Even if we include the cost to us of our helper and my subs, we are well under a budget of $2842.6 ($1421.30 x 2) let alone $2393.18 (1196.18 x2). Hospitalisation fees is very volatile. Mum had bills in 2019 and this year. Zero in 2020.

Maybe despite eating Cold Store deli food regularly, we are lower-income in the eyes of the PAP govt? We get CDC vouchers. We don’t pay income tax because we live on dividends. (Blur? See ** to understand what I’m talking about).

Whatever, very complicated topic: basic living standards because of cost of living assumptions, group dynamics, profile of the surveyed, compilations and computations.

So kudos to the academics for trying. Especially since they come from that bastion of Hard Truths, the LKY School of Public Policy. Maybe, we’ll see them somewhere else or jobless soon?

---

*They have detailed in great detail their assumptions and methodology: https://www.asiaone.com/money/how-much-do-you-need-basic-standard-living-singapore? Do read the article. Not the usual constructive, nation-building BS. It’s from a good financial blog, not the SPH group where PAP enablers turn anti-PAP once they stop getting their 30 pieces of silver: Another running dog turned self-appointed tribune of the HDB plebs.

**

The methodology used to arrive at the Minimum Income Standard (MIS) is highly dependent on group dynamics and the profile of the participants.

…

With most participants having post-secondary education and 15 per cent living in private properties, the findings expressed may not be reflective of the circumstances of the lower-income families situation and understates the support given.

https://www.asiaone.com/money/how-much-do-you-need-basic-standard-living-singapore?

Another running dog turned self-appointed tribune of the HDB plebs

(Apologies to the real dogs for associating them with PAP enablers)

Another retired editor/ journalist starts biting the hand that once fed him (FB post edited to get rid of typos):

A newsroom guru/mentor called PN Balji would often ask: How many of your reporters live in HDB housing? How can they resonate if they cannot relate? It leads me to this post to the arrogant, natural aristocracy: At the core of our culture is the hawker centre. It is where we gather, to escape the claustrophobic confines of pigeon-hole pods. For affordable food, accessible access to conviviality and multi-cultural mingling. Impose restrictions that go against the grain of inclusivity, of natural affinity, of old folk camaraderie as opposed to indifferent, self-entitled country club aristocracy, and you are fucking with the 61.2 per cent force of the heartland. Never underestimate the extent of discontent. There is a difference between policy and people — the cold, calculative logic of policy vs the emotive vox populi of lived reality.

Ken Jalleh Junior

Last year, Balji started this anti-PAP FB page: https://www.facebook.com/thenewsingapore

More on Balji, tua kee running dog, turned self-appointed tribune of the plebs: Feeling free to bite hand that once fed him written in 2015.

Btw, what was the tribune of the plebs?

Tribune of the plebs, tribune of the people or plebeian tribune (Latin: tribunus plebis) was the first office of the Roman state that was open to the plebeians, and was, throughout the history of the Republic, the most important check on the power of the Roman Senate and magistrates. These tribunes had the power to convene and preside over the Concilium Plebis (people’s assembly); to summon the senate; to propose legislation; and to intervene on behalf of plebeians in legal matters; but the most significant power was to veto the actions of the consuls and other magistrates, thus protecting the interests of the plebeians as a class. The tribunes of the plebs were sacrosanct, meaning that any assault on their person was punishable by death.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tribune_of_the_plebs

I despise those who were happy to be PAP propagandists and enablers when they get paid their 30 pieces of silver, but when the silver is stopped, KPKB anti-PAP slogans and clichés. They really have no shame.

But maybe, people like Balji, Ken Jalleh and Bertha Henson were deluded when they were working in the constructive, nation-building ST or the wider SPH group? They thought they were the Fourth Estate propagating the Truth, Democracy etc, not PAP propagandists and enablers. They have realised the truth and are repenting to make sure they go to Heaven?

Whatever, the fact is they repented (if true) only after their 30 pieces of silver stopped.

Stagflation? What stagflation?

The price of gold, the usual safe haven against inflation or stagflation, does not seem to reflect the possibility of stagflation.

Gold is suffering from an expectation that central banks will raise rates to stem the inflationary shock say the experts. But real interest are still negative so there’s no carrying cost.

I suspect that cryptos are now the real hedge against inflation or stagflation: Bitcoin is above US$60,000.

Goh Meng Seng can’t hide from Covid-19

People who

wilfully decide not to vaccinate will have at some point bear the consequences of their decisions

Ho Ching

When I read the above, my tots turned to one Goh Meng Seng, the anti-vaxer wuo conflates opposing the PAP govt with opposing its attempts to keep us safe from Coivid-19 (Forward this to Goh Meng Seng and other S’poreans who wish us ill). With him opposing the PAP, no surprise the majority of voters prefer the PAP.

He cut and ran to HK when the govt announced that S’pore was planning to live with Covid-19. And he very shy to tell people he quit S’pore despite being active on FB propagating his message against vaccines. Subtly of course to avoid getting thrown off FB.

Rumour has it that he left his daughter and wife (a senior HK trade official) here telling them to vaccinate if they must.

The truth is sadder. Refusing to vax (and ordering his wife and daughter not to vax) but afraid of catching Covid-19, he and his family fled to HK. OK “return”.

They had to give up an expat life style here (Wife’s job as a senior trade official based here meant that they lived in a condominium and the daughter attended an int’l school. HK paid these expenses. Meng Seng was free loading off his wife.)

Back in HK, they live in a tiny flat (a three-room HDB flat is more specious) and the daughter’s private school fees have to paid by her parents.

Worse in early October, there was a case of the Indian variant in HK: the first since August.

People who

wilfully decide not to vaccinate will have at some point bear the consequences of their decisions

Ho Ching

Asia loves coal

Only Indonesia sells more coal than Australia globally. Coal remains OZ’ s second-biggest export after iron ore.

China and India are the world’s biggest users of coal.

Why are there port delays?

Further to PSA: The Good and the Bad. the u/m explains why there are delays and why there’s a vicious circle.

PSA: The Good and the Bad

Our ports don’t have the problems that some other major ports are facing. Delays here are relatively minor.

But PSA isn’t that efficient. Two of M’sia’s nearby ports are a lot more efficient.

But to be fair, they most probably don’t have much business most of the time. S’pore is bunched together with many other busy ports.

Teachers: PAP enablers

If you tot our local journalists and editors are running dogs of the PAP govt, spare a tot for our teachers:

Schools serve the same social functions as prisons and mental institutions—to define, classify, control and regulate people.

Michel Foucault

High prices are only transitory?

(Last paragraph added at 3.30pm on day of publication)

Markets seem to have accepted this as conventional wisdom, and there’ll be chaos if the markets discard this view.

But don’t be a contrarian and be a bear.

There’s an academic study arguing that US inflation is overstated by 0.5% just as it was understated during the debts of the pandemic by 0.5%: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/10/13/whats-wrong-with-americas-consumer-price-index

But “Some countries, including New Zealand, South Korea and Norway, have increased their interest rates in recent weeks in a bid to cool their economies and ease inflationary pressures,” BBC. And our central bank has allowed S$ to strengthen.

Anti-ESG investors crying all the way to the bank

Woke, hipster investors are banging their balls. Nice to see contrarians fleece the sheep.

Three cheers for our millionaire ministers?

Yesterday, I grumbled that our millionaire ministers don’t provide value in Millionaire dollar ministers, yet only second in Asean?, They are like paying for a Rolls Royce but getting a cheap and cheerful made-in-China made car, not even a Hyundai. So today I should praise them?

Actually No.

Because the minister responsible for throwing enough people into prison to ensure that gals can go running after midnight safely, and I can safely leave my doors open even when there’s no-one in,

was already a millionaire before becoming a minister (he was a top litigation lawyer), unlike the civil servants (e.g. Lawrence Wong), paper SAF generals (think Kee Chiu Chan) and GLC executives (err Grace Fu) who only became millionaires after becoming ministers.

I give credit where credit is due.

Millionaire dollar ministers, yet only second in Asean?

Something is wrong, very wrong. Especially as the gap between us and Thailand is statistically significant.

Rich Chinese go private

Why Xi is screwing Evergrande

He is trying to reduce leverage in the Chinese real estate industry by forcing the developers to reduce leverage. The coming takeover by state related entities and tycoons doing NS (Think the Mas of Tencent and Alibaba) of Evergrande (the largest and most indebted property developer) will be a major test for the government and CCP.

He’s taking a risk because if the takeover of the company is mishandled, it will burst China’s almighty housing bubble, hitting growth in the process.

He is trying to curb speculation in housing to ensure every Chinese family can own their own home. First time purchasers have declined very rapidly while the speculators are multiplying like rabbits.

He should learn from S’pore: public housing.

Xi trumps Trump

Grandpa Xi is looking for an English-speaking ghost writer to write the “The Real Art of the Deal” which he intends to be a sequel to Trump’s “The Art of the Deal”. No need to be able to speak or write Mandarin. The ability to write entertainingly in English is all that is required.

Xi thinks that he trumps Trump in deal-making. And who can blame him?

Trump got screwed: China is not honouring its “phase one” import commitments.

Asean’s crypto first adopters are global leaders

Not S’pore for sure (Cryptocurrencies in S’pore). Vietnam is the tua kee global crypto adopter by a country mile. Thailand is somewhere further down the list, PinoyLand is even further down the list. We are not on the list.

The impact of 100 – 300% gas price rises in the West on S’pore

How will the recent surge in global natural gas prices, with benchmarks in Europe and the US up nearly 300 per cent and 100 per cent in recent months affect us?

The u/m useful info was stuck at the end of a long CNA article that talked about the global situation. Really bad editing as I bet you most readers would not have bothered to finish reading the piece.

This is a shame so I decided to copy and paste what the constructive, nation-building CNA should have told us up front. Not at the end.

Btw, the effect on us in the short term is “peanuts” but read for yourself:

For Singapore, experts told CNA that surging gas prices will unlikely result in a direct hit to economic activity.

… an uptick in electricity prices may be on the cards if the shortfall in gas supplies pushes global oil prices up.

While about 95 per cent of Singapore’s electricity is generated from imported natural gas, the prices of natural gas are indexed to oil prices, according to the Energy Market Authority which described this as the “market practice” in Asia for natural gas contracts. As such, experts said movements in oil prices, instead of gas, tend to have a bigger impact on electricity prices here.

Ms Eileen Yan, Deloitte Singapore’s infrastructure and capital projects advisory partner, said: “If global energy – oil and gas – prices continue to increase, especially if natural gas prices spike further in the winter season due to increased heating needs, the electricity prices in Singapore would follow the trend as fuel costs are passed through to electricity prices.”

This … will be felt more acutely by industries such as refinery, petrochemical, and transport and transportation, which use oil or natural gas as feedstocks or fuel. Businesses that are big electricity users, like data centres and shopping malls, may also expect more costly utility bills, said Ms Yan.

… any price increase in the cost of electricity will be gradual, according to Dr Ngin Hoon Tong, programme director at the Energy Research Institute of Nanyang Technological University.

… electricity tariffs here are calculated using the preceding quarter’s average fuel price, meaning lesser price volatility and a trickle-down effect that will likely kick in three months later.

SP Group said on Thursday (Sep 30) that the electricity tariff for households in Singapore will increase by an average of 3.1 per cent for the October to December period this year, compared with the previous quarter. This is due to the higher cost of fuel for producing electricity by the power generation companies, it said in a press release.

… Barclays Bank economist Brian Tan said higher energy prices may have “some modest negative spillover effects on the Singapore economy, but these are unlikely to be large”.

Mr Livermore from Oxford Economics Middle East agreed that negative growth spillover will be limited given the small share of gas in Singapore’s trade.

“But should the gas prices translate into higher oil prices, it could have a more material impact as Singapore has one of the largest oil refinery industries globally.”

Mr Tan said while higher gas prices may push up Singapore’s core inflation gauge, which includes energy costs such as electricity and gas tariffs, it is unlikely to be a substantial increase.

“We doubt the Monetary Authority of Singapore will respond to an increase in core inflation that is largely driven by gas prices, especially as such commodity-driven inflation may prove to be transitory,” he said.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/gas-price-rise-europe-us-singapore-economy-2209591

CNA should done a quick summary of the global situation, then tell us the impact on us. And then provide more int’l background info. It can be done.

PAP govt’s idea of living with Covid-19

Tell 9% of households to voluntarily lock themselves up for the next 4 weeks.

8.7% of households in 2017 (latest available data) were 3G households i.e. households with three or more generations living under one roof.

Because

Seniors aged 60 and above, as well as those living with them, have been “strongly urged” to stay at home to reduce their chances of contracting COVID-19 amid a spike in cases.

This is especially so if they are unvaccinated, said the Agency for Integrated Care (AIC) on Thursday (Sep 30).

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/seniors-stay-home-4-weeks-covid-19-vaccine-booster-2212356

this means that 9% of households were told to do voluntarily lockdown for the next 4 weeks.

AIC advised seniors to only go out for essential activities and I suppose that this advice also applies, even if the CNA report doesn’t state it, to those living with them.

Welcome to S’pore’s plan for living with Covid-19: no official lockdown for 9% of households but lockdown all the same.

Cryptocurrencies in S’pore

Two interesting charts showing our level of awareness of cryptocurrencies. Good omen for the government’s attempts via MAS to make S’pore a global centre for all things crypto currencies. In Asia, China has made all activities connected to crypto currencies illegal as it prepares to launch its very own digital currency. And Japan is cautious on the issue having approved several exchanges. They ran into problems.

our central bank with several big banks is experimenting with the code underlying Ethereum. it can be used to create smart contracts.

Btw, Ethereum’s doing well

Big polluters

Buy the polluters

They outperform the woke

Oz links S’pore to AUKUS and QUAD

Brunei, M’sia, and Vietnam also share the link. The dragon will be snorting fire on the four countries.