Lee Jnr’s report card

What do u think? From Bloomberg

Is this why the PAP is having problems with younger voters?

While the $4G leaders still swear fealty to the Hard Truths (which can be surmmarised as “Own self check ownself” and “You die your problem”), society has evolved to be more caring and accountable because as S’pore has grown more prosperous (in part due to the PAP Old Guard).

Vicious cycle

As a society, we have developed positive-sum beliefs and no longer have zero-sum mindsets?

We have moved from a minister’s very public sneer that implies that the poor don’t deserve to eat decent food:

“How much do you want? Do you want three meals in a hawker centre, food court or restaurant?”

And SM wants us to think of the poor?

to Tharman’s kinder, gentler view of the world. Btw after that sneer Tharman then Finance Minister allocated more to social spending. He was telling his fellow rich kid mama (both from ACS) something.

Why our millionaire ministers remind me of hedgies

They both get paid millions to underperform.

Private sector economists have cut their forecast for Singapore’s economic growth this year to 1 per cent, down from an earlier projection in June of 1.4 per cent.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/singapore-economy-growth-forecast-cut-gdp-mas-survey-3749361

And remember we just missed falling into a recession.

Related post: Our evolving GDP growth guesttimates/ Tharman

Of course our millionaire ministers blame global events “We open economy. Not our fault”. Hedgies also blame global events, e.g.”Fed is irrational, not us”.

Whatever both underperform while making millions.

Pros and Con of voting for the PAP’s “Useful Idiot”

It won’t affect the above because he also a populist: Why the PAP is the real “facking populist” not Jamus.

Seriously, we’ll still get the “goodies” (“Ownself pay Ownself”) because the PAP millionaire ministers have ensured that the elected president has no power, something TKL alluded to when he asked why have an elected president with no power.

It could be a really good idea to vote for the clown TKL to try to show the PAP of the folly with persisting with the idea of an elected president to safeguard the reserves. The judges gently suggested an alternative that was rejected.

Another good reason to vote for him is to show up the stupidity of the millionaire ministers in setting the eligibility for president for “public” sector candidates so low. I mean just because a desk jockey PAP running pet became Speaker, she could be eligible to president. Yes I repent of this: Malay PAPpy that can thrash Chin Bock. Related: More on Hali’s judgement between 2007 -2011/ Meritocracy? What meritocracy?

If he wins, he won’t be able to do anything to constructive or destructive. But: When a ceremonial president goes “rogue”

The only real problem is that he’ll behave like Estrada or Duerte, presidents of PeenoyLand. Not the killings but his talking cock will bring international shame and ridicule.

Personal note:

Funnily enough I worked with two of the candidates. I joined MAS as a junior officer in MAS when NKS was already a rising star. Due to my work I had dealings with him. Very competent guy. Fits LKY’s idea of what the president should do except that he was never a PAP person.

Many years later (around 2008), I and one Mathew John and another helped TKL when he was trying to help the mini-bonders etc. (Remember them?). There were a few early successes but he was very upset by the government’s reaction to the situation (refusing to follow the HK govt response of forcing the banks and finacial cos of paying out)) and got more and more “garang”. I’m sure people like Goh Meng Seng who advised him had a lot to do with his attitude. 

Btw, one of his personally selected aides at NTUC warned me that I’d not be able to work with him for very long. He said that TKL liked balls-carriers more than good advice. His judgment was warped by flattery.

Why the PAP is the real “facking populist” not Jamus

The ex-Speaker of parly should have called the PAP “****ing populist” not Jamus because

I don’t find the Economist’s comments on our CPIB “deeply offensive and uninformed”

I’m not one of those constructive, nation-building S’poreans who think the sun shines from Tharman’s ass. And who find find the Economist’s comments on our CPIB “deeply offensive and uninformed”.

This is why The Economist’s charge that simply because the CPIB reports to the prime minister it can’t be independent strikes many Singaporeans as deeply offensive and uninformed.

T. K .Lim
High commissioner of Singapore
London

When the news of the incident in question went public, I got a call from KL, from an old connection who like me is semi-retired. Like me he invests, but he also does deals: he was once an adviser (Others would say “crony”) to Tun M and Anwar. He is proud that he and Anwar are friends even when the latter was jailed. I suspect he was (like others) funding Anwar when he was in the Wilderness. I was hoping he’d get a post in Anwar’s govt: no such luck. Btw, he’s also a friend of Badawi (Remember him?)

Sorry for the meandering.

He said that in the UK, Oz, NZ, and Canada the anti-corruption investigators never ever have to inform the PM or ministers of their investigations. The latter would only hear of the matter just before someone is charged.

Even in M’sia, he said the PM would be told of pending charges just before the charges are laid. He pretended to be offended when I laughed at this assertion. I said I had assumed Mrs Najib (aka First Lady of M’sa or FLOM) had received a call from the M’sian CPIB telling her that she and her hubbie were bring investigated and could they destroy any evidence that proved they were corrupt.

Back to the original comment, the High Commissioner, it seems reasonable to assume, is trying to muddy the waters between reporting lines on purely administrative matters (budgets, etc.) and seeking permission to investigate or charge. This misrepresentation, I find deeply offensive and uninformed misleading.

Related post: Nation Day quotes: Not from the constructive, nation-building media

PM doesn’t follow EPL games

That tot crossed my mind when I read

Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong says Law and Home Affairs Minister K Shanmugam and Foreign Affairs Minister Vivian Balakrishnan retain his full confidence.

Part of headline in constructive, nation-building Today

If he followed the EPL, La Ligue, Serie A or any other major European league, he’d know that saying “retain his full confidence” is the kiss of death. Whenever the chairman or CEO of a footie team says the manager or head coach or director of football has “his full confidence”, it means that the said person is going to be sacked very soon because the club no longer has confidence in the person.

Shows how out of touch our PM is with the “little people”?

Thailand: Why even bother

The blue lines are the pro army parties that support the ruling govt. They are way behind the two oppie parties

But the Economist headlines its report

The opposition looks set to win Thailand’s election

But the army and the monarchy will remain in control

The army and the royalists should have S’pore style presidential elections.

PAP govt at work

Housing: Voice of the People in 2022

But the voters should thank the millionaire ministers and the (th Immortal?

Because

Property is crashing everywhere, except in Singapore. The Asian city-state’s private residential prices are up 14% year-on-year, according to third-quarter data from Knight Frank. That’s a sharp contrast to major cities like Hong Kong and Sydney, which saw decreases of 7% and 4% respectively over the same period.

…

The city-state boasts a home ownership rate of nearly 90% as of 2021, thanks to the government’s public housing policies. With average annual real wages growing almost 20% since 2017 and total employment expanding, many households are now looking to upgrade to private residences. Yet due to Covid-19 disruptions, net new housing has fallen below the 10-year average. As of the third quarter, 78% of planned private residential units were under construction, down from 90% in the same quarter in 2021, according to the Urban Redevelopment Authority.

https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/singapore-withstands-global-property-downturn-2023-01-03/

Can the millionaire PAP ministers hear the people crying?: Voice of the People in June 2022

Yes they heard the voters’ concerns about inflation

But the 9th Immortal hardened the hearts of the millionaire PAP ministers (Remember that they are probably part of the 1% who felt “No impact all all” about inflation): GST went up 1%age point on 1 January. To be fair to these millionaire ministers, they shelled out a few more peanuts.

Do you hear the people sing?
Singing the song of angry men?
It is the music of the people
Who will not be slaves again!
When the beating of your heart
Echoes the beating of the drums
There is a life about to start
When tomorrow comes

Why PM-in-waiting should be worried

In June 2022 around the time the new Dauphin was anointed this came out:

Only 63% felt positive about him and of that most (45%age points felt “Quite positive”. 19% “Don’t know/ No Opinion”. Wonder what are the %ages now?

Well he’s not done much about the “Cost of living” or “Inflation/ Price rises” except throw a few peanuts our way. So the 45% of “Quite positive” were right to be sceptical.

PAP Old Guard at its best?

This had me thinking of the time when the Pay And Pay party tried to help the plebs.

This was a time rich men like LKY, Lim Kim San and Baker joined “mediocrities” (GCT’s term for those who didn’t earn a lot of $) like Dr Goh and Devan Nair to help S’poreans. Now civil servants become millionaire ministers and many S’poreans think these millionaires sneer at the plebs. Many S’poreans were upset by GCT’s remarks “mediocrities” even after his “clarification”. I’ll say this for PM, born with a silver spoon in his mouth, he doesn’t do sneering at the poor.

The environment in which the Old Guard operated:

Dr PaulA and other younger S’poreans should read the u/m book. While they rightly discount much of the LKY, SPH stuff, as propaganda, they can’t and shouldn’t discount this written by a ex-Special Branch ang moh, after he was sacked by the British. He was married to one Han Suyin and was sacked from Special Branch because of her: In 1956, she published the novel And the Rain My Drink, wherein she described the interrogation techniques used by the Special Branch against Communist suspects.  Comber has written that he was sacked (asked to resign) as Assistant Commissioner of Police (Special Branch) because of said book.

The book describes how bad things once were. A PAPpy would say they make my above bitchings petty. He could also point out that after reading the book, I sent an email to friend in his 60s who moved on from S’pore after Sec 4,”Reading this book reminds me why you did the right thing: go to London. It was a tough time, and the rhetoric from LKY wasn’t reassuring.”. My friend went on to become v.v. rich as a financier.

“I’m invested in S’pore” & S’pore in 50s/ 60s

And Devan Nair had a vision, for the workers, albeit a flawed one: NTUC: What Devan Nair got wrong

Double confirm, PM didn’t read Tocqueville

By planning to repeal S3377A, it’s clear our Beloved Leader never read Tocqueville. LKY never put it on Jnr’s reading list? It’s clear that in his analysis and actiobns LKY knew the dangers of rising expectations: people simply expect more.

This is what I wrote in 2013

Alexis De Tocqueville is famous particularly in the US for Democracy in America. But he also published The Old Regime and the Revolution in1856. In it he talked of the dangers of rising expectations.He argued that revolutions often took place not in times of despair but under improving conditions:

experience teaches us that, generally speaking, the most perilous moment for a bad government is one when it seeks to mend its ways….Patiently endured for so long as it seemed beyond redress, a grievance comes to appear intolerable once the possibility of removing it crosses men’s minds.*

PMs Lee & Najib didn’t read Tocqueville?

Well the LGBTs and their fellow travellers are demanding more, a lot more. Without pausing for breath, or celebrating in public by doing anal sex, they now demand same sex marriage:

377A: Gay marriage looms as new frontline in Singapore battle for LGBT rights

…

Sunday’s announcement amounted to a pyrrhic victory. They say the constitutional amendment on marriage will ultimately hinder progress for LGBT rights.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-62628494

What they are bitching about is that Parliament will have the power to redefine marriage which means the present the definition of marriage as one between a man and a woman will be hard to change,

(Related post: Why S377A is a gate worth storming, or defending/ Legal basis of repeal)

In 2013 I wrote

… I’m sure LKY had read Tocqueville because he was always trying to ensure that S’poreans didn’t have rising expectations of anything. He always wanted us to be aware of the fragility of life. He admitted, a few yrs ago, that the reason why the size of the reserves and the returns on the reserves had to kept a secret from S’poreans was his fear that we would expect more to be spent on ourselves, if we knew how wealthy S’pore was. At the peak of his mental powers, he would never have said this because by saying it he was saying that there was plenty of money that could be spent.

PMs Lee & Najib didn’t read Tocqueville

Xi learned from S’pore?

In June 2019, hundreds of thousands marched through the city to protest against a proposed law that would have allowed criminal suspects in Hong Kong to be extradited to mainland China for trial

party officials in the city were ordered to study an article that outlined a policy known as “keep Hong Kong but not its people”, according to Ching Cheong, a journalist who has studied the Communist Party in Hong Kong for five decades.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/07/01/how-china-is-making-hong-kong-more-chinese

Replace the people of HK.

Xi learned from LKY?

Managing people, the S’pore way cont’d

What S’poreans are most worried about?

Cost of living and Inflation/Price Rises

Not very worried about aging population and our 4G leaders.

Double confirm: Study shows “Pay millions, still get monkeys”

We were also interested to read this new study on corporate pay, from Ossiam and Proxinvest. It found that the more executives and directors are paid, the worse a company’s share price performs.

Moral Money, an FT newsletter

Relevant extracts

Board Remuneration (-2.6%): our results suggest that high board remuneration consistently
penalises equity performance. In fact, if the fee paid by the company to the member as
compensation for being on the board is significant in relation to the member’s net worth, it can
become a subconscious factor affecting their judgment.

https://api.ossiam.net/front.file/Governance%20Data%20Where%20is%20the%20Alpha%20-%20EN%20-%20Final/EN

And

CEO Total Compensation (-3.1%): companies with low CEO total compensation significantly
outperformed companies that award their CEO with large total compensation packages. This
finding could suggest that excessive compensation signals an agency problem in a weak
governance structure that could negatively affect the company’s performance.
• Senior Management Bonus Cap (-4.7%): the result suggests that a lower bonus cap
arrangement can be a highly effective tool and hence contributes significantly to equity
performance. Setting and maintaining an appropriate bonus cap for senior managers can play an
important role in controlling management’s attempts to misappropriate company resources by
paying excessive bonuses.
• Compensation Package (Base Salary (-1.6%), Annual Bonus (-2.0%), Long-Term (-2.1%) and Other
Compensation (-2.3%)): our results show that whether we consider the base salary, the bonus,
long-term or other types of compensation, companies that have a more parsimonious
compensation policy and award relatively less to their senior managers tend to perform better.
Interestingly, the biggest gap is observed for the Other Compensation pillar, which tends to be
company-specific and may eventually hide sub-standard practices in CEO compensation policies.
• Compensation relative to Total (Base Salary (+2.8%), Annual Bonus (-1.0%), Long-Term (-0.9%)
and Other Compensation (+0.6%)): a clear pattern emerges from our results: companies that pay a
more significant part of CEO total package in the form of base salary show better performance.
Meanwhile, when an annual bonus or other form of compensation represents a significant
proportion of total compensation, equity performance tends to lag. This confirms the intuition that a
high base salary proportion of the total package can serve as well-deserved compensation to
effectively motivate the CEO, while avoiding managerial short-termism linked to inherently shortterm incentives (such as a bonus), which possibly has harmful effects on the company’s long-term
growth.

https://api.ossiam.net/front.file/Governance%20Data%20Where%20is%20the%20Alpha%20-%20EN%20-%20Final/EN

Actually no need for study. Juz look at the performance of PM, Tharman, Lawrence Wong, Kee Chiu, Queen Jos and the other millionaire ministers: die die must raise GST.

NO GST rise, more “goodies”, early GE

S’poreans clearly think the 4G leaders are a bunch of overpaid mediocrities:

Majority of Singaporeans say inflation handled ‘badly’, according to Blackbox poll

…

About 55% of respondents in the mid-May survey conducted by pollster Blackbox Research Pte. said the government was handling everyday price rises “badly.” Almost 20% said it was tackled “very badly,” while 36% felt it was dealt with “quite badly.” At the same time, 37% said the government was performing “quite well” and 7% said “very well.”

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/majority-singaporeans-inflation-handled-badly-080041059.html

My best guess is that if the present inflation trends continue, there’ll be no GST rise next year. The voters are angry and a majority of 51% at the next GE (Remember that only 44% of those poll think our millionaire ministers are doing a good job in handling inflation) will do the $G leaders only harm.

My other prediction is an early GE, either in late 2023 or early 2024, General elections are due to be held in S’pore no later than 23 November 2025 to elect the 15th Parliament of S’pore. In 2025 GST will go up by 2 %age poinrs.

To sweeten the ground, there’ll be plenty of goodies using our $: Ownself pay Ownself.

Remember I predicted in 2018 that LW would be PM: Why PAP should make Lawrence Wong PM. And in 2015 that Heng would be PM-in- waiting: The next PM has been unveiled.

Desmond Lee: King Slimer

When I read the headline,

Engaging S’poreans a hallmark of 4G leaders: Desmond Lee

ST

I tot what a King Slimer.

It’s another way of saying that the IG, 2G and 3G leaders didn’t do engaging S’poreans as well as the 4G.

Seriously, it’s an implied criticism of 1- 3G leaders.

If $G leaders so good, why PAP share of vote is back to pass mark of 61% only? And why is 4G leaders NOT listening to the voters on GST rise? Becxause they are $G leaders?

He’s trying to BS us that $G leaders are competent. Think cotton wool comes from sheep: “Do you know about the sheep trees?”

Double confirm: Lawrence Wong is BS King

In early 2018, I wrote that he would become PM (after Heng) because he was full of BS:

Lawrence Wong is a throw smoke specialist, good enough to be PM after Heng’s one term in that post. You heard these predictions here first.

Lawrence Wong: a PM-in-waiting

OL, OK, I was more polite then.

When I read u/m

In his speech, Mr Wong said that progressive social and economic policies could “uplift everyone” regardless of race, language, religion and social background. He added that his own life is an example of this.

He shared that he had come from an ordinary heartland family in Marine Parade and he went to a PAP Community Foundation Kindergarten, Haig Boys’ Primary School, Tanjong Katong Secondary and then to Victoria Junior College — schools that were all near his home. 

“Remember a decade ago, (Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat) said ‘every school is a good school’… That to me was not a slogan; it was a lived experience,” he said. 

“So I can tell you from personal experience that we must continue to ensure every school remains a good school, for I have experienced first-hand the benefits of inclusion and equal opportunities.”

https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/pap-4g-team-social-compact-lawrence-wong-1887876

, it double confirmed that he is the NS King of Kings among the 4Gs, where there’s no shortage of BS kings and queens.

None of these schools are really your typical “neighborhood schools”. His primary and secondary schools had (and still have) long traditions of excellence.

That’s not all. His primary school was one of the better primary schools in the area. And during his time Tanjong Katong Secondary was almost an elite school.

VJC in his time was a newbie but it had very high entrance standards. Today, it’s just outside elite status.

And GST still going up? / Li Hongyi for PM

Die, die GST must go up even after our Leader say this?

Outlook for post-Covid recovery clouded, recession could hit ‘within next 2 years’: PM Lee

The outlook for Singapore’s post-pandemic recovery has clouded and the risks have grown considerably, particularly due to the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

Due to the increase in energy prices, Singapore will be set back about S$8 billion a year

Government support schemes may help ease hardships, but in the long term, “this does not really solve our problem”, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said

https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/pm-lee-hsien-loong-may-day-rally-2022-1887846

We are on autopilot? And 1970s technology? No AI? WTF?

Li Hongyi for PM so that we can have AI technology for autopilot govt.

Seriously, if we have autopilot government, do we need to pay ministers millions of dollars? Juz asking.

What our MSM doesn’t say about Lawrence Wong or his “anointment”

“Lawrence Wong to lead PAP’s 4G team: 8 things to know about him”

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/politics/8-things-to-know-about-lawrence-wong-the-paps-new-4g-leader

But the article doesn’t tell us that

Wong married at 28 but divorced his first wife after three years due to “incompatibility” and he has since remarried.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Wong

Why is the constructive, nation-building ST so prim and proper, and behind the times? It’s been a while since divorcees couldn’t become ministers or senior civil servants. Or when it meant demotion of ministers or senior civil servants. Now divorce is accepted as “acceptable” in society, though cheating on one’s spouse is not acceptable in the PAP, even if the spouse forgives.

A few yrs ago when a retired M’sian grandee asked me for a briefing on Lawrence Wong when it became public knowledge that he was in the running to be PM, he said “Glad to know that you guys are no longer in the 19th century”, when I mentioned he was divorced.

Did you also know that PM thinks LW s is not ready to be PM? Not if ypu read the headlines or opening paragraphs of articles. But read further down and readers will be told:

Mr Lee however emphasised that the leadership transition will only be done when the identified leader of the fourth generation (4G) team, Finance Minister Mr Lawrence Wong, is ready.

https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/no-date-set-yet-leadership-handover-factors-include-best-strategy-fight-next-ge-pm-lee-1874641

But let’s be fair to our constructive, nation-building media. They did report that there were other ministers who wanted the job:

15 out of 19 leaders consulted chose Lawrence Wong as top pick to succeed PM, with no close second: Khaw Boon Wan

https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/15-out-19-leaders-consulted-chose-lawrence-wong-top-pick-succeed-pm-no-close-second-khaw-boon-wan-1874621

Albeit the spin is

Lawrence Wong not being a unanimous pick for top job a ‘natural outcome’ of more robust, inclusive process: Analysts

https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/lawrence-wong-not-being-unanimous-pick-top-job-natural-outcome-more-robust-inclusive-process-analysts-1874766

Wonder if Kee Chui Chan and Ong Ye Kung are among the ones who tried (And are still trying?) to be PM? The former is a true-blue RI boy, while the latter did do his A levels in RI. RI boys are widely believed by the plebs as ambitious, experts back stabbing plebs Like Lawrence Wong. Even RI boys (think Heng) are supposedly not safe from defenestration from other ambitious RI boys.

But ST etc will never tell us things like this. SAD.

“If Lawrence can become a multi-millionaire, so can any ordinary non-elite S’porean”

But first LOL.

The right to lead is not inherited. It has to be earned afresh by each generation of leaders

PM on FB

The above will sound a bit rich to those S’poreans (and not only the usual anti-PAP suspects), who tot that our PM was destined to become PM from the day he went to Catholic High.

Seriously, trumpets please: Lawrence Wong: a PM-in-waiting. Written in 2018.

Related post which explains the title: Lawrence Wong, a divorced Katong boy who went to “lousy” schools and uni but still became PM: Why PAP should make Lawrence Wong PM.

Lesson for PAP millionaire ministers

How to grow the economy with less FTs (where the “T” stands for “Trash” often with fake degrees).

Do what Yum China is doing: automating.

But don’t they love FTs from mamaland? And prefer to fix the Oppo? And raise GST?

How millionaire ministers are solving the inflation problem

Because S’pore is an open economy, inflation threatens household budgets. Inflation is driven by disease-induced supply-chain foul-ups, and rising global food, commodity prices and energy prices.

https://dollarsandsense.sg/singapore-inflation-rate-2021-heres-much-prices-everyday-goods-services-increased/?fbclid=IwAR3hTfr2heVoB4tVbh4dMKUz-_elYE_UxKmzFoDKlPpoYB2z0ejjLVTLNss

The solution: raise GST by 2%age points.

OK, OK there’s some “Ownself pay ownself” via GST rebates etc. But they are “peanuts”.

PAP would love the young to have this Japanese attitude

Young Japanese man

We are literally in a state of emergency with Covid-19, so how can I suddenly entrust my will to another party? I can’t trust any,”

https://www.ft.com/content/9b2debce-60be-41ab-9427-37d209af1d66

All indications are that this is not true here, and in fact in the last GE it was the younger S’poreans who voted for the Wankers (They won a GRC with a very young team) and Team Cheng Bok.

Remember Goh Cock Chok Tong’s exhortation to learn from the Japanese: Learn from Japanese — set example leh elites)? Shumething ignore by the PAP.

What PM doesn’t understand about GDP and GST

PM Lee in his New Year message on Dec 31 said that with the economy emerging from the Covid-19 crisis, the Government has to “start moving” on the planned increase in the GST. We now know GDP was up 7.2% last year.

BUT

As the above illustrate, strong GDP growth does not mean that everyone benefits by having higher wages. Some benefit more than others, many don’t benefit.

But then, one doesn’t expect a cabinet of millionaires to understand the problems many S’poreans face. Ordinary S’poreans are what Goh Chok Tong sneeringly called “mediocrities”. Millionaire cabinet ministers are his ideal “non-mediocrities”.

(Btw, last year I wrote that PM would say that GST would rise in 2022: Chiat lat! Wah lan GST going up in 2022. But fyi, I still stand by my views in 2020 that there’ll be no GST rise until after next GE: Why there’ll be no GST rise until after next GE and Double confirm, no GST rise until after next GE. I don’t think economic growth will justify taking the PAP govt taking the risk. Lawrence Wong will caveat a 2023 rise with a lot of “ifs” and “buts”, allowing him to avoid a rise.)

GST: A very brave local academic

So if S’poreans don’t want a GST rise in 2023, just pray to the Eighth Immortal for GDP growth this year of below 3% this year (MTI’s prediction is “3.0 to 5.0 per cent” in 2022.)

GST: A very brave local academic

Two days ago I sent a message to an overseas connection who follows the politics and economy here

What I hate about the constructive nation building media and academics. No analysis, only paeans of praise: https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/no-good-time-raise-gst-2022-provides-window-opportunity-politically-and-economically-analysts-1781846

It was about the balls-licking and ass-kissing media and academic (Yes, one of these academics is Eugene Tan*, brown-noser in chief) reaction to PM’s message that GST sure to rise.

(Btw, last year I wrote that PM would say that GST would rise in 2022: Chiat lat! Wah lan GST going up in 2022. But fyi, I still stand by my views in 2020 that there’ll be no GST rise until after next GE: Why there’ll be no GST rise until after next GE and Double confirm, no GST rise until after next GE. I don’t think economic growth will justify taking the PAP govt taking the risk. Lawrence Wong will caveat a 2023 rise with a lot of “ifs” and “buts”, allowing him to avoid a rise.)

Whatever, there’s a brave local academic. At the end of a really long analysis piece on the outlook for inflation here in 2022, he wrote:

MORE SUBSIDIES FOR NECESSITIES?

As we begin 2022, Singaporeans will be looking ahead to Budget 2022, slated to be announced in February, and any measures it would have to help counter the rising cost of living.

The Government could provide more subsidies for necessities such as electricity, food and public transport. Another way to help would be to delay the raising of the Goods and Services Tax (GST).

I would even go a step further and suggest that reducing the GST by one to two percentage points for a year or two would help. To help offset the revenue loss, the Government could increase the marginal tax rate in the highest income bracket.

Overall, the inflation rate in November 2021 is not something to be too worried about, but high inflation can indirectly lead to high interest rates, and those who have loans should look at the interest rates or refinancing options more carefully.

Citizens would also appreciate government subsidies to help with costs.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/commentary/inflation-price-interest-rates-increased-cost-living-2404301

Sumit Agarwal, the author, is no Eugene Tan and

is the Low Tuck Kwong Distinguished Professor of Finance, Economics and Real Estate at the National University of Singapore (NUS) Business School, and the managing director of the Sustainable and Green Finance Institute at NUS. He is also the co-author of Kiasunomics and Kiasunomics 2. The opinions expressed are those of the writer and do not represent the views and opinions of NUS.

CNA

I wish him well in his future career outside S’pore. I’m sure he’s an FT where the T stands for Talent.

===========================

*Eugene Tan must be breaking record in ass licking and Eugene Tan must be breaking record in ass licking

History of the PAP 1985-2021

Yesterday, in Putin learning from the PAP?, I wrote that the author of A History of the PAP 1985-2021 said,

the book is both a narrative and analysis of the PAP. It certainly is a narrative with the added bonus that because the PAP was in power during that period the book is also a narrative of S’pore’s economy and govt policies.

But when it comes to analysis, I’m reminded of Animal Farm and in particular what Boxer said

‘If Comrade Napoleon says it, it must be right. ‘ And from then on he adopted the maxim ‘Napoleon is always right’ …

He interviewed all the PAP tua kees and many ikan bilis, but from his coverage and analysis from 1985 till the immediate aftermath of GE2005, I did not learn anything new.

It wasn’t that this was a quiet period

The issues that the PAP faced were many: who was to succeed LKY, how the choice was to be made, why GCT chose Lee Jnr as his deputy and dauphin, ministerial salaries, GRCs, the Jade House row, the elected presidency and the locking up of the reserves, the presidential election, the row with Ong Teng Cheong, the handover to LHL and the 2005 GE.

On all these topics the book revealed nothing that I already knew or had surmised. At best I learnt about whiter shades of white or darker shades of white.

As I digest more of the book, I’ll blog my tots.

Putin learning from the PAP?

I couldn’t help but smile when I read the Economist’s (the PAP’s go-to manual or bible: PAP’s bible challenges “market-based solution”) take on Putin in 2022

The Kremlin’s aim is not to throw out the right to vote, but to get rid of any alternative to Mr Putin.

Now isn’t this what one Harry Lee (Remember him? His son is now PM.) was always doing in S’pore: ensuring there would be no alternative to the PAP in S’pore. It’s a Hard Truth Jnr is trying to keep.

Interestingly, I’ve been reading (not from choice: but as a favour to my ex-boss who wants a review) of the just published A History of the PAP 1985-2021.

The author of the book says the book is both a narrative and analysis of the PAP. It certainly is a narrative with the added bonus that because the PAP was in power during that period the book is also a narrative of S’pore’s economy and govt policies.

As to whether, it’s an analysis, is shumething I’ll blog about in coming days.

Meanwhile here’s the views of someone who thinks the world of the PAP book: https://berthahenson.com/2021/12/27/history-of-the-pap-gems-in-the-footnotes/?

But then, she would say that would’t she?

An ex-colleague of hers in ST alleges that she was (Still is?) a cadre of PAP (Women’s Wing) and that she tot she could be ST’s editor. She resigned, it seems, when the present editor (whom it’s alleged she hates) got the job. She’s since been bitching about the ST’s declining journalistic standards. When she was there in a senior position, a story about a murder had to mention that a relation of the suspect was a WP member.

Whatever, if she was a PAP cadre, she should have declared this fact when penning the elegy to the book. But then ST journalists have double standards, telling us financial people to declare our interests, while they can keep quiet theirs.

Why we get ministers who can’t organise an orgy in a brothel?

but first, a Blessed Christmas if you are Christian. And a merry, happy holiday if you are not Christian. And a a happy 2022.

Coming back to the question, it’s because of the way they are chosen

“When you’re at the top of the hierarchy, you have a lot of influence over people’s careers. There is a natural tendency for people to start to say things that they think you want to hear, that align with your world view, or make you happy.”

The bubble forms slowly, Mr Lesser explains, because at first your peers still see you as something of an equal, they know you and your background. But over time, he says, a “gap starts to emerge”, between the CEO and everyone else.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59043478

PAP govt’s fault S’poreans not running US tech giants

LKY’s gang made sure that S’pore didn’t become a shithouse country like India.

I kid you not. Explaining why mamas run so many US tech giants:

“No other nation in the world ‘trains’ so many citizens in such a gladiatorial manner as India does,” says R Gopalakrishnan, former executive director of Tata Sons and co-author of The Made in India Manager.”

From birth certificates to death certificates, from school admissions to getting jobs, from infrastructural inadequacies to insufficient capacities,” growing up in India equips Indians to be “natural managers,” he adds, quoting the famous Indian corporate strategist C K Prahalad.

The competition and chaos, in other words, makes them adaptable problem-solvers – and, he adds, the fact that they often prioritise the professional over the personal helps in an American office culture of overwork.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-59457015

As a S’porean living here, I’d rather live in the S’pore that the PAP runs rather than shithouse place like India (even if the PAP ministers die die want Mamas to keep on coming here) even if S’poreans don’t develop the skills to run US tech giants.

PAP’s Project BS in action? Or an honest mistake?

At its very recent party conference PM said

PAP not afraid of opposing views but must rebut wrong ones ‘if possible gently, but when necessary firmly’

Read more at https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/pap-not-afraid-opposing-views-must-rebut-wrong-ones-if-possible-gently-when-necessary

And

PAP members call on party to embrace diversity and be open to opposing views

Read more at https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/pap-needs-embrace-diversity-and-be-open-opposing-views-party-members

Very PC and in line with what PM and PAP have been saying recently.

But in the same speech also commended a PAP cadre who died recently.

A FB friend who is a lawyer, a pretty conservative guy and who like me is generally sympathetic to the policies of the PAP govt wrote on FB

PM Lee in his party convention speech commended the late Mr Lionel De Souza, a former police Sargeant, who was a colourful character.

The PAP also granted him a posthumous award for the services he rendered to them over the years.

Mr de Souza was dismissed from the SPF in 1986 for using excessive force – but appealed successfully on the ground of bias of the investigator.

He was well-known for using aggressive and threatening language online in recent years.

The below is an example.

Note what Mr de Souza said : “We will trace you and settle the score with you.”

A clear example of intimidation.

I myself have personally been at the receiving end of one such missive from Mr de Souza some years ago.

If this is the kind of man that the PAP regards as exemplifying its party values, I can only express dismay and disappointment. 

One Adrian Tan (a friend who like me has benefited from the PAP govt’s policies but who has never voted for the PAP) posted in response to the above

I can no longer respect the PM and the PAP because PM commended this guy at a party convention. His antics in cyberspace and the FB is in the public domain. As you said, “If this is the kind of man that the PAP regards as exemplifying its party values, I can only express dismay and disappointment.” 

But let’s be fair to the PM, maybe when he talked about rebutting opposing views “firmly” if necessary, he was thinking that Mr de Souza exemplified what he meant: intimidating and abusive behaviour.

LOL. Or should this be SAD?

Or maybe, the commendation of de Souza was inserted into his speech by a speech writer and PM never bothered to check out who de Souza was.

Or maybe in the PAP loyalty is that important, hence the commendation and award despite the fact that de Souza’s abusive and intimidating behaviour is in the public domain.

I doubt we would ever know the truth.

But whatever it is, it’s not good for the PAP and PM’s credibility. SAD.

PAP: Once upon a time

Uncle Leong in a rant against the PAP shared this photograph. I just had to share it.

Two cheers for the 4G leaders. They finally got something right

When an ex PAP running dog turned into a foaming at the mouth mad dog, wrote a piece (Visit https://www.facebook.com/thenewsingapore/) castigating the $4G’s performance over Covid-19, I had to do something to defend them.

They know the link between vaccination and economic growth and got over 80% of us vaccinated. Two cheers* for this quick action.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) blames low vaccination rates for ‘diverging’ south-east Asia growth vis-a-vis that of the rest of Asia.

It downgraded Indonesia’s (the largest regional economy) by a percentage point to 3.5%. the Thai economy (second largest) eby more than 2 percentage points to 0.8%, and Vietnam’s (the fastest growing regional economy) by 3.8%, from 6.7%.

================

Nike’s woes in Vietnam and Indonesia

Nike’s factories in Vietnam and Indonesia, which make three quarters of its shoes, have been hit by local lockdowns. In Vietnam alone it has cost the firm 10 weeks of production this year.

================================

While downgrading SE Asian growth because of low vaccination, it upgraded our growth rate by half a percentage point to 6.5%. S’pore has vaxxed about 80% of its population. From DBS:

More from DBS, showing that things are looking good.

And before u dismiss the DBS report as the equivalent of the constructive, nation-building ST (i.e. as BS) note DBS maintains ‘below-consensus’ forecasts with ‘bumpy path’ towards endemic Singapore: https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capital/brokers-calls/dbs-maintains-below-consensus-forecasts-bumpy-path-towards-endemic-singapore

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*qualified approval or mild enthusiasm, often used ironically The cybernuts infesting TRE don’t know this.

Turning a Hard Truth on its head

A Hard Truth of LKY is that the wealthier people get, the more conservative they become. Hence getting people to own 99-year HDB flats was (and is) a Hard Truth: the PAP govt tot 99-year leases don’t decay isit?

=============================

Why 30-year old HDB flats difficult to sell/ Why PAP rule will end in 2029.

 If LKY were alive, PAP govt wouldn’t publicly admit that HDB leases end worth nothing?

===========================

Remember the asset enhancement programme when JBJ, and Chiam and two other SDP members got into parly?  Like in Xi’s China, property is an important part of the push for the PAP’s version of the CCP’s “common prosperity”.

Well a new study in the UK may be showing that these two Hard Truths are BS. The study says says that wealthy people are more radical people because they can afford to take risks:  

[R]adicalism is often thought of as a revolt by the poor, a rival theory turns this on its head. In a recent paper Jane Green of Oxford University and Raluca Pahontu of the London School of Economics argue that wealth acts as “insurance”, cushioning voters from the economic dangers of upending the status quo and thus reducing risk aversion. Better pensions and rising house prices mean that pensioners are now much richer, relative to the rest of the population, than they were a generation ago.

https://www.economist.com/britain/2021/09/11/older-voters-help-power-britains-radical-movements

And the really well-off (not those who live in HDB flats) have a beef against the PAP govt. While they have done well from the PAP govt’s real asset enhancement policies (low taxes and economic policies that favour them: think liberal immigration policies), they are unhappy that their children and grandchildren will not have as good a life style as they do.

Hence their willingness to support the PSP by providing backroom help.

Afterword (26 September 2020): After this post appeared, IPS data supporting its conclusion that the well off here are more radical than the plebs appeared: https://mothership.sg/2021/09/ips-survey-low-ses-singaporeans-challenge-authority-bad/)

No mention of “common prosperity” last nite

But first what is “common prosperity”? For the plebs on the street, it’s something Grandpa Xi is using to justify shaking down the tech billionaires and their cos, and banning private tuition.

Common prosperity, Mr Xi pointed out, has been an ideal of the Chinese people since ancient times. It was espoused by his predecessors as Communist Party leader. (Even Deng Xiaoping, who was famously happy to let some “get rich first”, insisted that they then help others to catch up.) The ideal appears not just in Marx but also in Confucius, Mr Xi said. He quoted a well known line from “The Analects”, which says something to the effect that a wise leader worries not about poverty but about inequality; not that his people are too few, but that they are too divided. (It is snappier in the original Chinese.)

…

“We must not allow the gap between rich and poor to get wider,” Mr Xi insisted in January. People in the top fifth of Chinese households enjoy a disposable income more than ten times as high as people in the bottom fifth, according to official figures. Disposable incomes in cities are two and a half times as high as in the countryside. And the top 1% own 30.6% of household wealth, according to Credit Suisse, a bank (compared with 31.4% in America).

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/xi-jinpings-talk-of-common-prosperity-spooks-the-prosperous/21803895

Although the term was not used by PM last night, it was the ghost in the background when he talked about

• Government has accepted three suggestions from a tripartite work group to uplift lower-wage workers
• The recommendations are: Expanding the progressive wages to more sectors;
• Requiring companies that hire foreign workers to pay all local employees a minimum salary of S$1,400;
• And introducing a Progressive Wage Mark to accredit companies that pay all their workers “decent wages” 

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/progressive-wage-model-local-qualifying-story-national-day-rally-ndr-2021-2143121

He said, “Workers have to reskill and become more productive. Employers have to absorb part of the additional wage costs. The Government will help them with transitional support but businesses”

will still have to pass on some of the costs to their customers.

PM

That will make many S’poreans even PAP supporters unhappy.

Whatever, when LKY ruled, we were told that China was learning from us. Will our constructive, nation-building media tell us that when Lee Jnr was PM, we learnt from Xi?

SAD: No sense of civic responsibility

And is the reason why we’ll remain a de facto one-party state for the foreseeable future.

Reason why PAP wins and wins?

But people like Lim Tean and Goh Meng Seng help: Why even with 4G donkeys, PAP will retain power.

And there’s still hope as the last GE showed: Legitimacy problem for the PAP as 9% of voters get smarter.

‘Umbrage’ Is Typical Pappy Quality

No I didn’t think up the above title or topic. An intelligent TRE contributor did. Below is his piece which I commend for yr reading. It’s good.

The recent show of arrogance, talking down and condescending by the paper general who sank two ship is nothing new. If you look carefully at Cotton Chan and Paper General Gan, they talk in similar body language and tone. The typical top down, please do not question, your duty is to take order; the typical army SOP. Remember Cotton Chan was secretly recorded at some business meeting belittling the sheep with his army style talk?

If you look at the exchanges in parliament, most of them are armed with absolute arrogance and condescending style. Remembering how Slyvia Lim was cornered by a pack of wolves for her “test balloon”, those wolves also displayed the “Umbrage” quality.

Pappy loves to groom these “umbrage” quality and put them in key positions. Despite sinking one ship, he is again made captain of another. If you look at the overall, many things are sinking and quality deteriorating, all those lapses and poor quality in new BTOs. This explains the overall deterioration of PAPPY standard since they embraced such quality. Mind you, we complain but 61% is happy with such. Even the recent survey, the young people felt confident with this govt. Honestly, I don’t know what to say. It is a strange phenomenon to why people would embrace such BS quality.

Singapore’s growth cannot be just restricted to massive foreign immigration, all kind of price hikes and changes to CPF policies. This country needs new blood and people with humility to steer this ship in a new direction, the old umbrage ship has shown its decline and the crews’ heads now bigger than the ship.

We have to vote in new crew to either replace these umbrage quality or to have competition so that their heads are not swelling this big. If I were you, I will go and convince 10 more people to VTO “Umbrage Team” out in 2024.

VTO 2024

S’poreans are giving PM the finger

But are the PM and the 4G leaders intelligent enough to understand that S’poreans are sending them a message?

Money talks, bullshit walks in S’pore, so the PAP should be worried that people are donating $ to those the PM successfully sued.

No fan of Roy Nrerng. But he’s spot on when he recently said after raising the money to pay off PM’s defamation suit:

You have used each and every cent and dollar to directly send a message to Hsien Loong that you disagree with his behavior. This is what he will see when he sees the S$143,000 in his bank account! It is not just the damages he asked for. It is a statement that each of you are sending, and I am glad to have helped you carry it to him.

Likewise the fact that Leong Sze Hian crowdfunded the S$133,000 that he was ordered to pay the PM for the defamation suit brought against him by PM Lee shows that many S’poreans don’t like PM’s sue and sue everyone except his White Horse siblings.

And Uncle Leong has raised another S$56,298 to pay PM’s costs of $130,000.

The PAP are being sent a message, but are the PM and the 4G leaders intelligent enough to understand this?

Will next PM be a Visionary, Innovator or Influencer?

I couldn’t help but smile (Or was it a smirk?) and think of the leaders, the PAP 4G team are offering us as PM when I saw this on FB.

Who is the Visionary, Innovator or Influencer among Chan Chun Sing, Lawrence Wong, Ong Ye Kung and Desmond Lee?

My view is that none of them fit into any of the three categories.

But neither did our PM or Goh Chok Tong. They were both Dominators of a sort. Of a sort because LKY could dominate them.

Any of the 4G contenders to be PM is a Dominator? Kee Chiu clowns too much to be a Dominator? Ong Ye Kung could be the one: Ong Ye Kung: “Is he the 4G leader with the killer instinct?”

Heng’s a Hesitator. And Queen Jos is a Denier.

Which personality types are Lawrence and Desmond?

Our Harry foresaw succession crisis

All hail the 9th Immortal.

In A ‘crisis of leadership’ in Singapore, Andrew Loh (one of TOC’s co founders and ex-editors) said that in 2006

The PAP had introduced what it called its “P65″ candidates – those born after 1965.

He then went on to report as follows

Lee Kuan Yew, during a break at a hawker centre/coffeeshop where he held an impromptu media door-stop, responding to a reporter’s question about the quality of the PAP candidates that year.

LKY remarked that well, they were not “first tier”, because the “first tier” people approached by the PAP had declined to join, giving reasons of wanting to spend time with family and to focus on their careers.

Andrew Loh then did a very interesting analysis. He wrote

The “P65″ candidates that year included Josephine Teo, Baey Yam Keng, Michael Palmer, Jessica Tan, Teo Ser Luck, Zaqy Mohamad.

Among them, only Josephine Teo has since risen to a full minister. One was made Speaker but resigned after a scandal. Another has since stepped down from politics altogether.

Anyway, point is: the PAP’s inability to attract top tier talents started that year.

It is stark how it has declined after 2001 when the PAP managed to recruit the “Super Seven” candidates – Tharman, Ng Eng Hen, Vivian Balakrishnan, Raymond Lim, Khaw Boon Wan, Cedric Foo, and the late Balaji Sadasivan.

5 later became full ministers (Tharman was also DPM), while the other 2 were Ministers-of-State.

Even if the so-called “4G” leadership manage to select one to lead, it still does not settle the problem of a thin leadership in the PAP, and thus in the government.

LKY was frank in his revelation. 15 years on, we now see the most dramatic outcome of this lack of talent in the PAP – the length of time it has taken the PAP itself to choose a worthy successor to Lee Hsien Loong.

Related posts

Why even with 4G donkeys, PAP will retain power

Why PAP aiming for 65% of the popular vote

 Legitimacy problem for the PAP as 9% of voters get smarter 

PAP (PM?) wants a “traditional tough guy” to be PM.

Below is a response to Xia suay! Kee Chiu repeats PM’s assurance that same team still in place despite Heng stepping aside as 4G leader .

It’s written by Ajay. In the noughties someone called AJay was a respected voice in our cyberspace. He then went quiet. Wonder if the same person?

Ajay’s post

Opposition supporters in East Coast GRC caused Heng Swee Keat to lose his chance to be prime minister. In doing so, they have elevated Chan Chun Sing and might be responsible for him becoming PM.

The PAP old guard probably prefers someone in traditional tough guy mold to be the PM. All three Prime Ministers were known for their heavy-handed approach towards opposition politicians and activists. Recall the lawsuits against Roy Ngerng, Leong Sze Hian, JBJ, Chee Soon Juan, etc. Being a bit of an authoritarian is a necessary evil in a country that is small, has no natural resources and requires a mostly united population in order to progress without disruptive events. Excessive liberalization could jeopardize progress if it happens too quickly.

Heng going to East Coast was a test of sorts. Heng was known to be a mild, gentle, quiet, hardworking and humble minister who preferred a rational, consultative approach over a combative one. He had spearheaded Our Singapore Conversation which helped the PAP reconnect with the ground after GE2011. Heng was more open to hearing views from the ground and more likely to engage with opposition supporters and MPs than a more hardline PAP politician. He was unlikely to threaten critics or paint them all as troublemakers. The point of presenting Heng as the presumptive prime ministerial candidate and letting him lead the GE2020 effort was to test his support and the theory that those who disagreed with the PAP would really be willing to set aside their grudges and grievances if presented with a more consultative PAP prime minister.

Yet some hardcore opposition supporters could not believe their luck when Heng announced that he was contesting in East Coast GRC, a swingy battleground in Singapore elections. Some of them were commenting in forums that the tiger had come out of the mountain and this was their big chance to knock out a high profile PAP minister. They mocked his now-famous East Coast plan gaffe and ridiculed him throughout the election period. They forgot about the moderate Heng whom they had praised before the election and treated him as just another PAP yes-man whom they wanted to vote against. The result of their actions: Heng squeaking through in East Coast GRC with just 53.39% of the votes against a relatively weak WP team. Despite his openness to have a conversation on national issues, despite his willingness to engage those with alternative views, almost 47% of East Coast residents wanted to boot him out. This result might have weakened Heng’s already shaky standing in the eyes of the party’s old guard, leading to him having no choice but to step down as the prime minister-in-waiting. Him stepping down because of ‘old age’ makes no sense because he would have known that he would be 60 in 2021 when he accepted to be ‘first among equals’ just 2 years ago.

Opposition supporters inadvertently gave the PAP’s old guard the proof that LHL’s approach is still the best. You can’t get more consultative than that because even if you do, those people are still going to vote against you. All that hype about wanting Tharman, Heng, Lawrence Wong, Ong Ye Kung or any other friendly PAP leaders is meaningless if at the end of the day, these approachable, consultative and non-offensive leaders are not able to prevent loss of seats to opposition parties like the WP. Why should people who did not vote for the PAP get to decide what qualities or approach its PM should have? In a Westminster system, the party wins and then party insiders pick the Prime Minister. Voters endorsed this when the majority of them voted for that party to form the government. Back in September 2020, PM Lee spoke out against ‘free-riders’ who voted for the WP in their areas while depending on voters in other constituencies to vote to keep the PAP as the government. We can extend this logic further – should the PAP pander to ‘free-riders’ with their pick for PM?

Couldn’t help but think of PAP’s succession plans

Cuba’s last Castro is set to leave the political stage on Friday when Fidel’s 89-year-old brother Raúl is expected to cede power to a younger generation …

FT

Will PM be around for another 21 years?

Seriously, given that Covid-19 will still be around even if everyone in the world gets vaccinated, how will the PAP define the end of the pandemic? Remember last July, LHL announced that he was putting retirement off indefinitely because of the pandemic. 

E-mail your tots please.

Xia suay! Kee Chiu repeats PM’s assurance that same team still in place despite Heng stepping aside as 4G leader

SAD.

When I wrote Why Heng no longer PM-in waiting, I assumed that the PAP leaders had privately accepted that the $4G team were the problem and there would be a cull: like that of of grassroot leaders in 2012, who told the PAP leaders that all was well before GE2011. Still wondering where the bodies are buried.

A friend (ex WP tua kee, retired honorably) and I regularly talk cock about politics. In 2019, we both tot that the 4G leaders were not up to the mark. After the GE, we agreed that one reason for the PAP “defeat” was that the voters didn’t think much of the 4G leaders. Shortly, after Heng “quit” we agreed that the PAP had listened to the voters even though PM’s said that same team still in place despite Heng stepping aside as 4G leader. I tot this statement was wayang and a cull was coming.

But Kee Chiu’s comments makes me think we were wrong. The PAP has not listened to the voters. They think that 4G’s loss of legitimacy is a PR or marketing problem that can be solved by having a new 4G leader: the rest of the team can remain.

SAD.

Why Heng no longer PM-in waiting

Last year after the GE, I wrote Legitimacy problem for the PAP as 9% of voters get smarter which pointed out that the 4G leaders had failed their test.

Heng’s defenestration means that the PAP has publicly accepted the verdict of 9% of the voters.

Here’s what I wrote

Legitimacy problem for the PAP as 9% of voters get smarter

The really good news for S’poreans and the really bad news for the PAP is that 4G leaders failed their legitimacy test: Why PAP aiming for 65% of the popular vote. (Btw, written in 2018: Why even with 4G donkeys, PAP will retain power.)

Better still for S’poreans, based on what PM, Lawrence Wong and Shanmugan said the PAP is very aware that their legitimacy is waning.

The Wankers campaigned on the premise that the PAP government is more responsive to people’s concerns when it loses elected seats, as they did in 2011, when the PAP suffered its worst election result.

It went on to change immigration policies, a major source of unhappiness for many voters.

It also gave goodies (Remember Ownself fund Ownself: How we fund our SWFs and Property sales also fund our SWFs) to the Pioneer Generation which not only helped them but also those who cared for them:

Real life examples of what Pioneer Benefits mean:

— A mother and her autistic son are Pioneers. The son has been in a nursing home for over ten years, ever since his mother became too frail to look after him. The monthly bill was about S$4,000 a month and was borne by his siblings. Now this bill is “only” a few hundred dollars a month. The mother’s medical bills (she’s in her 90s and suffers from various chronic conditions) are now minuscule.

The extended family is happy.

— Another Pioneer used to pay $30 when she visited a polyclinic every three months for her medicine etc. She now pays $7.

— Another lady lives in a home because of Alzheimers. The cash from the sale of her flat was paying the bills. Now there is no worry of the cash running out before she dies. Her monthly bills have been slashed. Her working daughter (with children and an unemployed PMET husband) is breathing a sigh of relief.

Are you better off now than you were in 2011?

The Wankers strategy hit a sweet spot with about 9% of the voters.

But the Wankers went further. They also talked of not giving the PAP a “blank cheque”.

This too resonated because this 9% of the voters contrasted GE 2011’s aftermath with what happened after GE 2015 when the PAP got 70% of the popular vote, and in the process nearly making 5 Wanker MPs redundant.

Pay And Pay returned with a vengeance.

 Remember VivianB had said in parly in 2015 (juz before GE) that there was no need to change the price of water because of PUB’s improvements in membrane tech and productivity and that the water tariff and WCT reflected the scarcity of water, but prices went up after GE 2017.

Why Pay And Pay govt wants elections earlier than later

And

Pay And Pay

Articles and analysis of various “price increase” written by Uncle Leong (Remember him?)

Water – “PUB: $1.1b profits last 7 years – how much last 53 years? (Feb 24, 2017)

Service & Conservancy Charges – “S & CC: A truly caring Govt?” (Feb 17, 2017)

Gas – “City Gas prices to rise by 4.5 per cent from Feb 1” (Jan 31, 2017)

Electricity – “Electricity: One of the highest in the world? (Jan 1, 2017)

Childcare fees – “Fee hikes at 200 childcare centres this year” (Jan 1, 2017)

Parking – “HDB car park rates increase 60%? (Dec 16, 2016)

Rubbish fees – “Rubbish fees up: NEA surplus up 32.9%? (Nov 8, 2016)

University hostel fees – “University hostel fees up 6.8% p.a. despite $1b surplus?” (Jun 28, 2016)

Taxis licensing – “Taxi drivers hit by triple whammy?” (Jun 24, 2016)

Hawkers’ misc fees – “Hawkers’ misc fees increased by ? %? (Jun 22, 2016)

Why Pay And Pay govt wants elections earlier than later

Then there was the controversy about the presidency: #hardlymahpresident and Elected President: Oh, what a tangled web we weave cont’d.

Now 9% of voters are aware that S’poreans get the goodies when the PAP doesn’t get a “clear” mandate. And that when the voters give the PAP a “clear” mandate, S’poreans got shoved in the ass, though let’s face it, a hard core 35% love the sensation, while 25% believe it’s good for them. SAD.

So this coming National Day, let’s salute the 9%.

WP: Finally

10 years after Aljunied, the WP is finally doing what people like me hope they would do. Better later than never. Btw, I was wrong about Bayee. I tot he would keep on wanking like Low, rather than holding the PAP govt to account.

Indian Supreme Court shares the view of the PAP govt on freedom of speech

Recently, the Indian Supreme Court said that the constitutional right of film makers to free speech did not extend to hurting people’s religious feelings.

Sounds like something Darth Shan would say

who warned the Muslim community that it has responsibility to show that it lives in a multi-cultural society and must be aware of others’ sensitivities, just as it expects others to be sensitive to its sensitivities.

“You have a group of Malay young men, showing the one-finger sign, supporting the group,” CNA quoted the minister.

“If a group of Chinese went and showed the finger sign and said that we should allow it – how would you all have felt? It is the same.” Very true. Something for the Malay community to think about.

As the photo has gone viral “across the Christian community”, Shanmugam said that it was crucial to show that the picture does not represent what the Muslim community thinks. “They won’t realize that this a small group of Malays, but they may think, is this what Muslims think of us? So now we have to send the message that this is not what the Muslim community thinks. These are black metal group supporters, they are not the mainstream community.”

Watain ban: playing the easily offended game can backfire

Btw, I think he would also agree with

There is freedom of speech, but I cannot guarantee freedom after speech.

Idi Amin

Meanwhile in Cynical Historian: What the 2019 statues tell us. In 2019, to celebrate the 200th anniversary of Raffles’ landing, the PAP govt unveiled four statues to celebrate the anniversary. What message did the PAP want to send?

If the PAP wants to stop decline in popular vote, listen to George Shultz’s last words

The last GE saw the PAP again losing while winning. Its share of the popular declined 10 points to around where it was in 2011: around 60% of the popular vote. Worse, it had to rely on P Ravi, PRC running dog Goh Meng Seng and other useful idiots to help achieve this number: PAP’s useful idiots: s/o JBJ, Meng Seng, Lim Tean, P Ravi and Michelle Lee

I was reminded of GE 20120 when I read that George Shultz, a former US secretary of state who significantly shaped foreign policy in the late 20th Century, has died at the age of 100.

Trust is the coin of the realm. When trust was in the room, whatever room that was – the family room, the schoolroom, the locker room, the office room, the government room or the military room – good things happened. When trust was not in the room, good things did not happen.

In an opinion piece for the Washington Post to mark the occasion of his 100th birthday last December, Mr Shultz reflected on the lessons he had learned over his life in politics.

Given the fiasco over contract tracing

Broken promises: How Singapore lost trust on contact tracing privacy

Guarantees that Singaporean phone data would only be used to fight covid-19 were hollow.

Kirsten Han writing in https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/01/11/1016004/singapore-tracetogether-contact-tracing-police/

and the govt’s attempts at damage control

Bill introduced to make clear TraceTogether, SafeEntry data can be used to look into only 7 types of serious crimes

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/proposed-restrictions-to-safeguard-personal-contact-tracing-data-will-override-all-other

I think the PAP govt should take to heart George Schultz’s words:

When trust was not in the room, good things did not happen.

How the PAP can help the poor, grow the economy and win votes while being “prudent” with our reserves

Here’s constructive, nation building advice on how the PAP govt can win back 70% of the popular vote, help the poor, grow economy while keeping extra spending to a minimun. No need to raise GST or raid our reserves.

Have cake, eat it.

MONEY MIGHT not guarantee happiness, but income tends to correlate with contentment.

Economist

The economist reports that a 

recent paper by Matthew Killingsworth of the University of California, Berkeley, finds that happiness continues to increase even as income ascends to plutocratic proportions, with two caveats. First, the more happiness you want, the more expensive it gets. And second, money is not nearly as important as other factors.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/02/05/money-buys-happiness-but-euphoria-comes-dear

From this the Economist (I’ve said before that it’s the PAP’s bible: PAP’s bible challenges “market-based solution”) concludes:

First, helping the poorest is a bargain. In happiness terms, a dollar goes further for someone earning [US]$20,000 a year than for someone on [US]$40,000. Second, economic growth, much maligned as a yardstick of progress, is important as long as it doesn’t come at the expense of other measures of well-being. Happiness relies on many factors, but a more prosperous future is probably a more contented one too.

Remember you heard this first here. LOL.

Myth PAP cares more for GDP than for Sporeans?

Millionaire ministers prefer to lock down economy to save lives seems to be the implication of u/m.

What do you think?

---

Dr Goh and his merry men

For all their academic brilliance Ah Loong and team have not advanced beyond tinkering with the framework that Dr Goh Keng Swee, Hon Swee Sen and Albert Winsemius devised. Evolution is fine to a point. But surely the world has undergone revolutionary change. When they were constructing their model of serving MNCs as a path to grow the economy, serving MNCs was “neo-colonialism”. Today even Red China serves as as the MNCs’ factory.

Problem S’pore, PAP face

Related posts

— Why S’pore’s economic progress went downhill after Dr Goh retired

— Dr Goh’s HK counterpart had similar views on MRT and other major issues

— Why S’pore industrialised in the 60s

— SG50: Three cheers for Goh Keng Swee

---

Remember, the 4G leaders failed their legitimacy test: Why PAP aiming for 65% of the popular vote. (Btw, written in 2018: Why even with 4G donkeys, PAP will retain power.)

And based on what PM, Lawrence Wong and Shanmugan said the PAP is very aware that their legitimacy is waning: Legitimacy problem for the PAP as 9% of voters get smarter

But the bad, sad news is how they are trying to fix the legitimacy problem. Instead of listening to Tharman’s views (see below), the PAP are trying to shift the goal posts, lowering the high water mark of success: now only aiming for 65% of the popular vote as their high water mark of popularity and success, not -70%+ mark of the past: How the PAP plans to fix its legitimacy problem.

And we must be a more tolerant democracy, with greater space for divergent views, and a more active civil society, without the public discourse becoming divisive or unsettling the majority.It will be good for Singapore if we evolve in these three ways. They will each help ensure stability in our democracy in the years to come. And they will tap on the energies and ideas of a younger generation of Singaporeans and their desire to be involved in public affairs.

Part of Tharman’s FB post

TOC’s Ghui no ak East Coast GRC voters isit?/ Everything also must complain

As usual TOC’s star writer Grace Hui is talking cock. In a piece “Who made the decision that Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong should not retire yet?“, she ranted

“People talk about needing checks and balances within Government so that the People’s Action Party cannot “ownself check ownself”. But within the PAP itself, are there checks and balances? Clearly, not all are equal within the party – so whose decision ranks supreme?

‘Has PM Lee Hsien Loong unilaterally decided that he should stay? Did he seek counsel from anyone else within the party? If so, who?

In addition, does this mean that the 4G leadership are far from ready to take power? While former Senior Minister S Jayakumar has tried to say that this is not the case, it remains a fact that PM Lee feels (for whatever reason) that the timing is not right to relinquish power.”

It is also noteworthy that 4G leaders like Lawrence Wong and Josephine Teo had both (on separate occasions) appeared teary-eyed in public, giving the impression that the pressure has gotten to them.

The decision for PM Lee to stay might well be right. Be that as it may, the public still needs to be told of why and how the decision is reached. Last I checked, Singapore is not supposed to be a dictatorship.”

https://www.onlinecitizenasia.com/2020/11/16/who-made-the-decision-that-prime-minister-lee-hsien-loong-should-not-retire-yet/?fbclid=IwAR0i6hCf2cjOEYlBE4trfMoPPOTwSFPkGWKyGwErpkfs7V5l1j13qH1d8Zo

She obviously has forgotten that the voters in East Coast GRC were very lukewarm toward Heng, giving him only a 53.4% electoral margin in East Coast. 

This promoted Reny Choo, one of the founders of TOC, to write after the GE:

It is difficult to see how Heng Swee Keat can take over as PM. Not with a 53.4% electoral margin in East Coast. There is no way to spin this. Singaporeans cannot confidently see our lives and the future of our country in Heng’s hands. 

https://www.onlinecitizenasia.com/2020/07/11/ge-2020-what-the-electorate-said/

So to reply to the talk cock queen who asked “Who made the decision that Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong should not retire yet?”, the answer is the voters of East Coast GRC: go ask one of the founders of TOC wrote.

And the PAP it seems listened. That also cannot isit? Die, die talk cock queen must insist that “the public still needs to be told of why and how the decision is reached”.

Maybe she also sees Remy Choo no ak?

Btw, tots on GE

that 4G leaders failed their legitimacy test: Why PAP aiming for 65% of the popular vote. (Btw, written in 2018: Why even with 4G donkeys, PAP will retain power.)

Better still for S’poreans, based on what PM, Lawrence Wong and Shanmugan said the PAP is very aware that their legitimacy is waning.

Legitimacy problem for the PAP as 9% of voters get smarter

And How the PAP plans to fix its legitimacy problem:

But the bad, sad news is how they are trying to fix the legitimacy problem. Instead of listening to Tharman

And we must be a more tolerant democracy, with greater space for divergent views, and a more active civil society, without the public discourse becoming divisive or unsettling the majority.It will be good for Singapore if we evolve in these three ways. They will each help ensure stability in our democracy in the years to come. And they will tap on the energies and ideas of a younger generation of Singaporeans and their desire to be involved in public affairs.

Part of FB post

, the PAP are trying to shift the goal posts, lowering the high water mark of success: now only aiming for 65% of the popular vote as their high water mark of popularity and success, not -70%+ mark of the past.

Three cheers for the PAP govt: it must be doing shumething right

The whole nature of protest is shifting across South East Asia, says Bridget Welsh, an honorary research associate at the University of Nottingham in Malaysia.

She goes on according to the BBC, “Democracy activists in Thailand and Hong Kong, as well as countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia, are “adapting to growing authoritarianism in a globalised world” with fast-changing tactics that harness the power of technology and visual representation.”

Meanwhile S’pore is really peaceful, and S’poreans really contented (Remember 60% voted for the PAP in last GE.), despite the efforts of Terry’s Online Channel, M Ravi and their cybernut allies to get S’poreans to behave like Thais and Hongkies.

Do the following show how of touch and uncaring are union leaders, PAP MPs and millionaire ministers?

This letter to ST’s Forum seems to show that they don’t really care for 32,000 poor S’poreans, unlike the Wankers.

Forum: How can anyone survive on less than $1,300?

The priority should not be to defend the statistics and policies on why there should not be a minimum wage level (WP MPs and NTUC deputy chief spar over minimum wage, Oct 16).

Instead, one should first consider how any one individual or family can survive on less than $1,300 a month when the cost of living in Singapore is notoriously high.

These 32,000 or so full-time workers urgently need help, and should not be tossed around as statistics whenever the topic of minimum wage is raised; $1,300 a month would not solve all their daily needs but it is a good start to give them some hope.

If we do not lift these 32,000 workers out of the pit of low wages, it is futile to talk about upgrading their skills.

If we cannot help them put food on the dinner table or provide for their basic needs, it is futile to talk about increasing productivity.

Be practical and realistic. These are our fellow Singaporeans who are poor and desperate. These are people we should not ignore regardless of the number.

The question is whether we give them the dignity and respect they deserve.

Ho Ting Fei (Dr)

As the good doctor says, the issue is the suffering of 32,000 S’poreans, not whether the PAP govt’s Progressive Wage Model (PWM) or minimum wages is better.

And whatever the merits of the Progressive Wage Model it’s slow. No wonder we have a national productivity problem when the NTUC, PAP govt and employers set the example of productivity at work: taking their time to implement what they all say are very impt national policies.

A retired union leader upset by Wanker Jamus ‘ comments about “folksy” union leaders inadvertently let the cat out of the bag in a letter to ST’s Forum.

TOC’s “correspondent” used the letter to pen an article headed

Unionist Nasordin and his tripartite partners implement min wages at snail’s rate of 3 sectors in 8 yrs.

It ends

In any case, it can be seen that despite union leaders like Nasordin, who “care deeply for our workers” and push for PWM expansion to other sectors earnestly, they managed only to establish PWM with its associated minimum wage in 3 industry sectors in the last 8 years, since 2012 when PWM was first mooted.

It has been observed from the Singapore Standard Industrial Classification manual that there are at least dozens of of sectors in Singapore. At the rate Nasordin and his tripartite partners go about implementing their PWM model of 3 sectors per 8 years, by the time minimum wages are implemented in all industry sectors in Singapore, the workers would have been retired or dead by then. Unionist Nasordin and his tripartite partners implement min wages at snail’s rate of 3 sectors in 8 yr.

Go read the article.

https://www.onlinecitizenasia.com/2020/10/19/unionist-nasordin-and-his-tripartite-partners-implement-min-wages-at-snails-rate-of-3-sectors-in-8-yrs/?fbclid=IwAR2LpcMaf_FI8N1Gcddot0ar-XKxmS-30_3uRVMr5GeXuf_fzu4AA2VnHys

Related posts: Another reason to introduce minimum wages and More evidence PAP talking cock on minimum wages

Double confirm: Why the PAP die die wanted to hold GE earlier this yr

Economy is really in a bad way. (Btw in May I wrote this: Why Pay And Pay govt wants elections earlier than later)

Ravi Menon, managing director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, said as much as 20% of the city-state’s economy faces “deep scarring” from the coronavirus pandemic.

Aviation and tourism industries are a worry, especially with an expected slow recovery in travel.

S’pore’s trade-reliant economy, already in recession, is facing its worst contraction on record — about 5% to 7% this year. The government has allocated about S$100 billion in stimulus to cushion the blow for businesses and help save jobs:

MAS has kept monetary policy unchanged tomorrow. Fiscal measures will do the heavy lifting in getting the economy back on track, unlike in the US. Sometimes good to have a one party state.

But the bad news is that Heng thinks PAP govt has done enough: Did u know Heng said no more additional round of support measures?

With someone like Jaromel Gee, PAP doesn’t need enemies

“Jaromel Gee, PAP party member and IB, sentenced to three years’ jail and 12 strokes of the cane for committing robbery”

The surprise is that even with people like him, the PAP makes winning looks so easy. So what does the PAP get right?

Views pls.

Why the PAP lost Sengkang: “It was an honest mistake”

In response to Anti-PAP activists: Apologise to the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee, Gary, a reader gave explanation for the WP’s famous victory.

As it chimed with what Secret Squirrel told me about what PAP leaders tot led to the defeat and what Morocco Mole (Secret Squirrel’s side-kick) told me his second cousin removed working in the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee told him, below are Gary’s comments:

Sengkang GRC was a gerrymandering blunder. They tried to stop WP from winning back Punggol East by merging it with other parts of Sengkang. The problem in that plan was that the Sengkang area as a whole has mostly younger voters – a demographic that PAP cannot count on as reliable support. The PAP’s initial loss in Punggol East had already showed its weakness in this region with the same demographic. In Sengkang GRC, the WP only had to persuade young families to support them. Contrast that with East Coast and Marine Parade GRCs where the WP candidates would have to win over a larger share of older voters if they intended to close the gap. The average Merdeka or Pioneer generation Singaporean is not very easy to persuade. On the other hand, a highly educated and younger population in Sengkang could be won over with just charismatic opposition candidates and ground engagement.

It also helped that Lam Pin Min became very unpopular after banning the PMDs – the dude was a MP in Sengkang – an area where PMDs are commonly used by the younger electorate. This is a lesson for any politician. Don’t oppose your constituents’ even if you think they are wrong on an issue. The PAP also scored an own goal by moving Amrin Amin and Ng Chee Meng from Sembawang GRC and Pasir Ris-Punggol GRCs to Sengkang. The PAP trusted that these fresh faces of the 4G – both office holders – would have the pull factor to get votes and beat back the WP challenge in the first tough battle of their careers. The problem was that these two were from other GRCs and didn’t have a high profile as leaders. Charles Chong and Teo Ser Luck would have done better, had they stayed on.

Trying to to stop WP from winning back Punggol East by merging it with other parts of Sengkang the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee helped the PAP to win a GRC?

Buy the members of the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee an abalone and sea cucumber meal. They deserve it as I don’t think they’ll be getting any pay rises soon.

Btw, I doubt ASP Lim and the DPPs in the debacle involving Liew Mun Leong will be getting any pay rises soon. Rumour has it they are already sending out their cvs.

Why there’ll be no GST rise until after next GE

The govt will take steps to strengthen its revenue position like raising the Goods and Services Tax (GST), said PM in waiting Heng Swee Keat on Friday (Aug 28).

I’m sure he knows -that

[T]wo ill-timed increases in the consumption tax, in the name of fiscal probity, both of which pushed the economy into recession.

Economist on Abe’s legacy

So that’s why maybe Heng also said the govt will “carefully monitor” the timing of such moves by considering the state of the economy and spending needs. “Carefully monitor” is his get-out-jail card of being the public face of Pay And Pay.

I mean with the next GE scheduled by end 2026, a recession in 2024 induced by a GST rise in 2023, is a vote loser. The way the economy is tanking (6% contraction expected), GST can only be raised in 2022 (Economy forcasted to grow by 5.5%) at the earliest. But based on the Japanese experience doing it then is risky. That leaves 2023 and, in turn, carries the risk of a recession in 2024.

Any later than 2023, the PAP is dicing with only 51% of the popular vote in the next GE.

And anyway, fiscal tightening should be resisted until recovery’s well underway: not to be nipped in the bud by a Hard Truth that was BS in the first place.

Casting my Chine fortune sticks, I prophesie that there’ll be no GST rise before the next GE. PAP knows the trade-offs and being Mr PAY And Pay could mean that its share of the popular vote falls below the pass mark: 60%.

In the context of a 60- 61% share of the popular vote being mud in the eye for the PAP, anything less than 65% will be seen as less than a smooth transition by the PAP and the voters.

Why PAP aiming for 65% of the popular vote

Related post: How the PAP plans to fix its legitimacy problem.

And remember I predicted this before the analysts: Double confirm: No GST rise this yr.

What the PAP has in common with UMNO

[W]hen PM spoke about the special responsibility that the PAP has for S’pore (Err PM what about Pioneer Generation and Merdeka Generation S’poreans who were not PAP members?) since they built this place, and about free riding Oppo voters reminded me of story a retired tuan besar and Tun “crony” once told me.

After Badawi, UMNO and BN had a bad general election in 2008 (He resigned as PM in 2009), UMNO conducted town hall sessions in urban areas with Malay voters. My friend attended a few sessions, and laughing told me it was a dialogue of the deaf, and an exercise in mutual incomprehension.

Elderly UMNO leaders berated the young Malays as ingrates for forgetting what UMNO did for the Malays.

They, in turn, told him, “All history leh: before our time. What are u doing for us now? Malays are now not all rural farmers. We urban Malays are the future.”

The elders shouted back “Ingrates.”

Going by the election results since then UMNO leaders never listened to the then young Malay voters.

Likewise our PM and the PAP are not listening to the message swing voters sent them: Legitimacy problem for the PAP as 9% of voters get smarter. Their response, lowering winning margin expectations, shows this: How the PAP plans to fix its legitimacy problem.

Double confirm SAD. Because PAP policies have made my retirement a very comfortable one even with Covid-19: “I’m a free rider and really proud of it”. They should be in office with economic policies that are “Feared by the poor, loved by the rich”.

Related post (From 2013): What PM should learn from M’sian voters.

“I’m a free rider and really proud of it”

I’m 65 and have been in comfortable retirement, since around 45 when I couldn’t find a job that would keep me paying income tax at the highest marginal rate: thanks to the PAP’s economic policies that are “Feared by the poor, loved by the rich”.

I was so comfortable that at 55, I never withdrew $ from my CPF account. Now, I’m even happy to delay getting my “Ownself pay ownself” pension until I’m 70.

But despite the PAP’s “Feared by the poor, loved by the rich” policies being juz the thing for me, I’ve never voted for the PAP.

I have had to vote regularly because the Siglap area is considered by the Wankers as friendly ground. Whenever I voted, I voted for the Wankers except in 2015 (Out of respect for one Harry Lee and disappointed in WP Low, more interested in $ than getting his team to voice voters’ concerns). I never ever wanted to give PAP a blank cheque.

I even voted for an ex-Woodbridge patient. LKY was really upset that this Wanker got 25% without even trying. I did feel bad after this incident because the Wankers littered the area after the GE refusing to take down their signage. They were really then under Saint JBJ a party of bicycle thieves, nut cases and mamas: WP Low made the WP a serious multi-racial party led by Teochews.

Mrs PM said “free rider” doesn’t mean “free loader”. But she should have told PM that when she vetted his speech. PM came across as using “free rider” to mean “free loader”.

Actually, I’m happy to admit that I’m a free loader who supports the PAP’s economic policies (“Feared by the poor, loved by the rich”) but who votes Oppo because I don’t want to give PAP a blank cheque.

When S’poreans gave the PAP 69% of the popular votelook what happened:

Pay And Pay returned with a vengeance.

 Remember VivianB had said in parly in 2015 (juz before GE) that there was no need to change the price of water because of PUB’s improvements in membrane tech and productivity and that the water tariff and WCT reflected the scarcity of water, but prices went up after GE 2017.

Why Pay And Pay govt wants elections earlier than later

And

Pay And Pay

Articles and analysis of various “price increase” written by Uncle Leong (Remember him?)

Water – “PUB: $1.1b profits last 7 years – how much last 53 years? (Feb 24, 2017)

Service & Conservancy Charges – “S & CC: A truly caring Govt?” (Feb 17, 2017)

Gas – “City Gas prices to rise by 4.5 per cent from Feb 1” (Jan 31, 2017)

Electricity – “Electricity: One of the highest in the world? (Jan 1, 2017)

Childcare fees – “Fee hikes at 200 childcare centres this year” (Jan 1, 2017)

Parking – “HDB car park rates increase 60%? (Dec 16, 2016)

Rubbish fees – “Rubbish fees up: NEA surplus up 32.9%? (Nov 8, 2016)

University hostel fees – “University hostel fees up 6.8% p.a. despite $1b surplus?” (Jun 28, 2016)

Taxis licensing – “Taxi drivers hit by triple whammy?” (Jun 24, 2016)

Hawkers’ misc fees – “Hawkers’ misc fees increased by ? %? (Jun 22, 2016)

Why Pay And Pay govt wants elections earlier than later

Then there was the controversy about the presidency: #hardlymahpresident and Elected President: Oh, what a tangled web we weave cont’d.

The PAP tot they were the masters, and we the servants.

Related post: Legitimacy problem for the PAP as 9% of voters get smarter.

Why we need to know PAP govt’s projected investment returns and why it’s a secret

Look at this table

It shows that its assumed return targets are BS. Fyi, Calpers is the California Public Employees’ Retirement System, a major global investor. As of 2018, the agency had U$360 billion in assets.

Before I go further, some defining of terms. From shumething I wrote in 2018

[O]ver the last 10 years, Singapore’s net investment returns (NIR) contribution (NIRC) to the Budget has more than doubled from S$7 billion in FY2009 to an estimated S$15.9 billion in FY2018.

…

Waz this NIRC and NIR BS?

NIRC consists of 50 per cent of the Net Investment Returns (NIR) on the net assets invested by GIC, the Monetary Authority of Singapore and Temasek Holdings and 50 per cent of the Net Investment Income (NII) derived from past reserves from the remaining assets.

In other words, we spend 50 per cent of the estimated gains from investment, and put the remaining 50 per cent back into the reserves to preserve its growth for future use.

Associate Professor Randolph Tan is Director of the Centre for Applied Research at the Singapore University of Social Services, and a Nominated Member of Parliament.

Under PAP rule will S’pore become like UK or Venezuela?

Now to why I think we need to know PAP govt’s projected investment returns. In 2016, a reader asked

A Qn: The NIR used for the budget is projected returns. If the projected returns did not materialize, then how? It seemed like insurance agent selling us a policy on projected returns which never materialize.

Am I comprehending the NIR correctly? Because this seemed to me that there might be hefty tax increase down the road if the projected returns did not materialize. This will also affect all the social spending currently on Singaporeans

NIR, Budget untruths, & the President

That is why we need to know the projected Net Investment Returns (NIR) on the net assets invested by GIC, the Monetary Authority of Singapore and Temasek Holdings. Remember NIRC — Singapore’s net investment returns (NIR) contribution (NIRC) -consists of 50 per cent of the Net Investment Returns (NIR) and 50 per cent of the Net Investment Income (NII) derived from past reserves from the remaining assets.

For your info this is what ex-TOC star commentator, Chris Kuan (Today, he seems to be too objective for the team running Terry’s Online Channel: they look to be the ST of S’pore’s cyberspace), wrote:

Your reading of the Constitutional NIR rule is correct – the NIR Contribution is calculated on the expected long term real rate of return (LTROR) on the government’s net assets (assets in excess of its liabilities). Pls note it is REAL returns we are talking about – that is the actual dividends and market valuation of the net assets minus the inflation rate. Therefore not all returns are spent. Then the rule limits the spent to 50% – therefore more than half of the actual or nominal returns are re-invested. Again pls note this is nothing unusual, Norway’s GPF and university endowments permit up to 100% of the returns to be spent.

NIR, Budget untruths, & the President

As to why the PAP govt wants to keep the projected Net Investment Returns (NIR) a secret, I’m sure you are thinking what I’m thinking LOL.

The strange case of the missing $18b in “Contingencies Funds”

In https://atans1.wordpress.com/2020/05/28/cheat-sheet-for-fortitude-budget-hali-tied-of-signing-peanuts/ in May, I pointed out that $18bn was in “Contingencies Funds” in the then latest “Fortitude Budget”.

So when I first heard about the latest $8bn in corporate welfare (OK, OK there’s trickle down to the plebs), I tot “Only $5bn left leh”.

But then I learnt

Fresh S$8b Covid-19 measures funded in part by no mid-year bonus for civil servants, lower military spending: MOF

Constructive, bation-building media

So it seems that the entire $13bn has already been spent, and this new $8bn in corporate welfarism is being funded by squeezing civil servants (not that they don’t deserve having less Bismati rice and chicken thighs in their iron rice bowls) and spending less on the military (Can cut meh? Tot our paper generals need every cent in their budget to keep S’pore safe?) and on the development of infrastructure?

An Adrian Tan commented on FB

Smoke and mirrors. They drew down $13bn more than they needed for contingencies: https://atans1.wordpress.com/2020/05/28/cheat-sheet-for-fortitude-budget-hali-tied-of-signing-peanuts/. Now they say the extra $8bn coming from savings. What am I missing? 

Let’s cut a deal, PAP govt?

No returning to pre-Covid world, with trade and business changed ‘irrevocably’, says Chan Chun Sing

Read more at https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/no-returning-pre-covid-world-trade-and-business-changed-irrevocably-says-chan-chun-sing

So let’s cut to the chase, let’s have a new social contract, PAP govt?

You’ve been floundering trying to find a new one acceptable to ordinary S’poreans since the 2011 GE and PE. Returning part of our money worked in 2015 (Are you better off now than you were in 2011?) but didn’t in 2020 (S’poreans see Fortitude Budget no ak and Legitimacy problem for the PAP as 9% of voters get smarter.)

Here’s the deal.

We keep giving you 60-70% of the popular vote, let u bully the Wankers and Cheng Bock’s gang, and social media, and be mean to the ang moh tua kees and their allies, the drug baron, mules and addicts. And btw sllow you to feel free to takan PM’s siblings and their families.

In return let’s have Albert Winsemius’ Dream for S’pore

“[F]ull employment”

(Its not “full” employment when unemployed S’porean PMETS are deemed employed because they drive taxis or do Grab trips.)

Followed by

“Only when every Singaporean can go to the level of education he needs;

“Only when every Singaporean can establish a family and have children;

“Only when every Singaporean can find a job that he can do to his best capacity;

“Only when he can grow old without financial worries;

“Only when he can get sick without loss of pay;

“Only when he can afford to die without financial worries for his wife and children … then you have a Singapore.”

Dhanablan’s recollection of what Albert Winsemius said: file:///C:/Users/GBT/Downloads/Booklet_-SG50-Winsemius%20(2).pdf

For the record, he was our chief economic adviser from 1961-84, and with Dr Goh Keng Swee and Hon Swee Sen, was responsible for the economic framework that made S’pore a shining city on a tropical island swamp.

Btw, I wrote

For all their academic brilliance Ah Loong and team have not advanced beyond tinkering with the framework that Dr Goh Keng Swee, Hon Swee Sen and Albert Winsemius devised. Evolution is fine to a point. But surely the world has undergone revolutionary change. When they were constructing their model of serving MNCs as a path to grow the economy, serving MNCs was “neo-colonialism”. Today even Red China serves as the MNCs’ factory.

Problem S’pore, PAP face

How the PAP plans to fix its legitimacy problem

I pointed out yesterday

that 4G leaders failed their legitimacy test: Why PAP aiming for 65% of the popular vote. (Btw, written in 2018: Why even with 4G donkeys, PAP will retain power.)

Better still for S’poreans, based on what PM, Lawrence Wong and Shanmugan said the PAP is very aware that their legitimacy is waning.

Legitimacy problem for the PAP as 9% of voters get smarter

But the bad, sad news is how they are trying to fix the legtimacy problem. Instead of listening to Tharman

And we must be a more tolerant democracy, with greater space for divergent views, and a more active civil society, without the public discourse becoming divisive or unsettling the majority.It will be good for Singapore if we evolve in these three ways. They will each help ensure stability in our democracy in the years to come. And they will tap on the energies and ideas of a younger generation of Singaporeans and their desire to be involved in public affairs.

Part of FB post

, the PAP are trying to shift the goal posts, lowering the high water mark of success: now only aiming for 65% of the popular vote as their high water mark of popularity and success, not -70%+ mark of the past.

Trying to dumb down the voters?

But going by the last GE, 9% of S’poreans are that not stupid. They’ll keep giving the PAP 60-61% in the next GE, no matter what goodies come their way.

So how will the PAP react? They make 55%, the high water mark, two GEs from this one.

And they’ll need to because 2029 is a dangerous for year: Why 30-year old HDB flats difficult to sell/ Why PAP rule will end in 2029.

No wonder, Mr otter is confused by the PAP’s comments just as he’s confused by the stock market collapse and the run on supermarket goods earlier this yr.

Btw, I’ll be talking about the HDB issue soon.

Legitimacy problem for the PAP as 9% of voters get smarter

The really good news for S’poreans and the really bad news for the PAP is that 4G leaders failed their legitimacy test: Why PAP aiming for 65% of the popular vote. (Btw, written in 2018: Why even with 4G donkeys, PAP will retain power.)

Better still for S’poreans, based on what PM, Lawrence Wong and Shanmugan said the PAP is very aware that their legitimacy is waning.

The Wankers campaigned on the premise that the PAP government is more responsive to people’s concerns when it loses elected seats, as they did in 2011, when the PAP suffered its worst election result.

It went on to change immigration policies, a major source of unhappiness for many voters.

It also gave goodies (Remember Ownself fund Ownself: How we fund our SWFs and Property sales also fund our SWFs) to the Pioneer Generation which not only helped them but also those who cared for them:

Real life examples of what Pioneer Benefits mean:

— A mother and her autistic son are Pioneers. The son has been in a nursing home for over ten years, ever since his mother became too frail to look after him. The monthly bill was about S$4,000 a month and was borne by his siblings. Now this bill is “only” a few hundred dollars a month. The mother’s medical bills (she’s in her 90s and suffers from various chronic conditions) are now minuscule.

The extended family is happy.

— Another Pioneer used to pay $30 when she visited a polyclinic every three months for her medicine etc. She now pays $7.

— Another lady lives in a home because of Alzheimers. The cash from the sale of her flat was paying the bills. Now there is no worry of the cash running out before she dies. Her monthly bills have been slashed. Her working daughter (with children and an unemployed PMET husband) is breathing a sigh of relief.

Are you better off now than you were in 2011?

The Wankers strategy hit a sweet spot with about 9% of the voters.

But the Wankers went further. They also talked of not giving the PAP a “blank cheque”.

This too resonated because this 9% of the voters contrasted GE 2011’s aftermath with what happened after GE 2015 when the PAP got 70% of the popular vote, and in the process nearly making 5 Wanker MPs redundant.

Pay And Pay returned with a vengeance.

 Remember VivianB had said in parly in 2015 (juz before GE) that there was no need to change the price of water because of PUB’s improvements in membrane tech and productivity and that the water tariff and WCT reflected the scarcity of water, but prices went up after GE 2017.

Why Pay And Pay govt wants elections earlier than later

And

Pay And Pay

Articles and analysis of various “price increase” written by Uncle Leong (Remember him?)

Water – “PUB: $1.1b profits last 7 years – how much last 53 years? (Feb 24, 2017)

Service & Conservancy Charges – “S & CC: A truly caring Govt?” (Feb 17, 2017)

Gas – “City Gas prices to rise by 4.5 per cent from Feb 1” (Jan 31, 2017)

Electricity – “Electricity: One of the highest in the world? (Jan 1, 2017)

Childcare fees – “Fee hikes at 200 childcare centres this year” (Jan 1, 2017)

Parking – “HDB car park rates increase 60%? (Dec 16, 2016)

Rubbish fees – “Rubbish fees up: NEA surplus up 32.9%? (Nov 8, 2016)

University hostel fees – “University hostel fees up 6.8% p.a. despite $1b surplus?” (Jun 28, 2016)

Taxis licensing – “Taxi drivers hit by triple whammy?” (Jun 24, 2016)

Hawkers’ misc fees – “Hawkers’ misc fees increased by ? %? (Jun 22, 2016)

Why Pay And Pay govt wants elections earlier than later

Then there was the controversy about the presidency: #hardlymahpresident and Elected President: Oh, what a tangled web we weave cont’d.

Now 9% of voters are aware that S’poreans get the goodies when the PAP doesn’t get a “clear” mandate. And that when the voters give the PAP a “clear” mandate, S’poreans got shoved in the ass, though let’s face it, a hard core 35% love the sensation, while 25% believe it’s good for them. SAD.

So this coming National Day, let’s salute the 9%.

PAP’s useful idiots: s/o JBJ, Meng Seng, Lim Tean, P Ravi and Michelle Lee

Not me who says this, but a reader from TRE who pointed out that if the PAP had had walkovers in the constituencies where the parties led by s/o JBJ, Meng Seng, Lim Tean, and P Ravi and Michelle Lee stood, the PAP’s share of the vote would be less than 58.7%. (I didn’t verify the figures but it sounds about right because the PAP thrashed the oppo clowns in these areas.)

So Tolonglah Opposition Parties, stop trying to be Indian Chiefs and boosting your own self inflated egos. Become activists, become NGOs, but stay away from polling. Stop insulting us with your mediocre performances.

Veron Rahim writing in TRE

Yes, by calling s/o JBJ, Meng Seng, Lim Tean, P Ravi and Michelle Lee “useful idiots”, I’m putting words into the writer’s mouth. But the facts he points out and which I amplify out justifies my action.

Tharman’s GRC won the biggest majority (75%) and PM’s GRC (72%) the second biggest majority. Surely these %ages helped boast the PAP 61% share of the popular vote? Btw, either Michelle Lee or P Ravi said they “won” in Jurong GRC by “losing”. “Won” as in helping the PAP?

As did Goh Meng Seng. Kate Spade Tin had a 6 point swing in her favour bringing her share of the popular vote to 72%. Well done Kate, she put Chinese male chauvinist Meng Seng in the gutter where he belongs.

The piece in full

GE2020 shows us that we need less ‘Indian Chief’ opposition parties around

* Take Note Only Contested Seats are Counted.

Since 2011 all seats have been contested. But from 2006 and prior, only the contested seats determined the % of votes.

So if the Reform Party and Red Dot United did not run, and Jurong, AMK and Radin Mas were walkovers, the PAP mandate would only be 58.7%

It would be even less, if People’s Voice and PPP did not contest Mountbatten and Macpherson.

Lee Hsien Loong can still proudly say strong mandate because these parties allowed him to. No PAP Prime Minister has had any vote share below 60%. It should have happened this time.

It’s not about giving them a walkover, what’s the point if the contest only serves their purpose to justify their support? I dare say if a stronger opposition party had contested these areas, they would have still lost but their percentage would have been in the mid 30% or higher and that would also have brought the winning percentage for the PAP below 60%.

So Tolonglah Opposition Parties, stop trying to be Indian Chiefs and boosting your own self inflated egos. Become activists, become NGOs, but stay away from polling. Stop insulting us with your mediocre performances.

And no to you combining either. Your entry will not help the Worker’s Party, PSP or SDP. Instead you can become ordinary members of these parties and help them in the groundwork. Or become bloggers.

Veron Rahim

Clear mandate? What clear mandate?

The People’s Action Party (PAP) has received a clear mandate in the general election, but the results also show a desire for a diversity of voices in Parliament, said Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong.

PM Lee said that while the ruling party’s share of the popular vote – 61.24 per cent – was not as high as he had hoped for, it still reflected a broad base of support for the PAP.

Constructive, nation-building ST

Like real

This would be a landslide victory in most democracies. But the numerical majority in actuality suggests a rather humiliating defeat, especially in a ‘crisis’ election called early amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Swings of over 20 per cent occurred, with the WP collecting an average of over 50 per cent in contested seats. The electoral system is so stacked with systemic controls and electoral engineering after 55 years of PAP rule that the outcome does not show the scope of discontent.

Bridget Welsh in https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2020/07/14/singapores-paps-self-inflicted-election-losses/

Bridget Welsh is an ang moh academic. She’s taught at SMU and her base seems to be in a top Taiwanese uni from where she wanders to places like Turkey. She’s now in KL. Unlike our constructive, nation-building academics, who speak with gatangs in their mouths (and with forked tongues, on both sides of their mouth), she speaks like us.

Her father worked in the US embassy in KL and she went to local schools, never losing her local accent.

Do read the above link and the one below.

She’s very prescient. Before GE, when our local academics were predicting a big PAP win (as was I: My GE2020 predictions) she wrote:

Singapore GE2020 showcases that the PAP has less control than they had in the past and they cannot rely primarily on control at home. This longest-serving incumbent party will easily win the election, but will likely be bruised in the campaign. Irrespective of the outcome, PAP will have a hard time trying to make things ‘normal’ after the elections. The ‘not normal’ mode is going to be around for some time.

https://bridgetwelsh.com/articles/singapores-not-normal-election/

Why PAP should make Lawrence Wong PM

But first trumpets for me. Long before (two years ++ before last Saturday night) social media tot that Lawrence Wong is a good choice for the PAP to make PM, I had spotted him:

I had written:

Lawrence Wong is a throw smoke specialist, good enough to be PM after Heng’s one term in that post. You heard these predictions here first.

Lawrence Wong: a PM-in-waiting

Here’s another reason why the PAP should make him PM.

The PAP can say

If Lawrence can become a multi-millionaire, so can any ordinary non-elite S’porean.

PAP pamphlet in GE 2026 campaign

His parents are ordinary S’poreams. Father was a marketing executive while mother was a teacher in Haig Boys’ Primary School: an ordinary middle class Katong family.

He’s no elite school boy or a graduate from an elite university also. He went to Haig Boys’ Primary School, Tanjong Katong Secondary School and Victoria Junior College. Whoever heard of these shit house neighbourhood schools?

He then went to the University of Wisconsin–Madis (Bachelor of Science degree in Economics) and then obtained a Master of Arts degree in Economics at the University of Michigan–Ann Arbor. Not exactly Oxbridge or Ivy League? Juz ordinary, good universities.

He’s juz like most hard working S’poreans: studied at non-elite institution.

To be fair, he then finally went to an elite institution: Kennedy School of Government, Harvard. But this was rather late in life, after he had been talent spotted.

Btw, as he’s divorced and remarried, the PAP can boast that it’s no longer puritanical. Once upon a time, the PAP leadership frowned on divorces and it’s alleged that the PAP’s pit bull terrier was put in purgatory when he divorced. He could have been a minister earlier, it’s alleged.

PM: Why Heng’s the betterest

Heng has got a bad press from the usual suspects on social media and alt media for purportedlt nearly losing East Coast GRC (Only got 53.41% of the vote leh) and for talking cock:

For our East Coast residents, we also have a plan for the East Coast. We have a… East Coast… Singapore… we have it together… an East Coast plan. We care at East Coast

Part of Heng’s speech on nomination day

My avatar has gone onto FB to point out that if he hadn’t parachuted into the East Coast GRC, we could have seen the Wankers win 5 more seats in parly: total of 15. And for talking cock, he really did talk cock.

Seriously, he’s the right PM-in-waiting for us because

For the business community, Heng’s more collaborative approach is a bigger asset heading into such uncertain times. Whereas Lee Kuan Yew instilled “palpable fear in the room” due to “the strength of his intellect and the force of his personality,” Heng seeks out alternative viewpoints, said Ho Meng Kit, chief executive officer of the Singapore Business Federation, which represents more than 25,000 companies.‘Build Trust’“It’s a different style altogether,” said Ho, who previously served as principal private secretary to Lee Kuan Yew. “This time around it’s not just that strong leadership that matters, because no one knows where that future is,” he added. “And that future needs to be co-created between the public sector and the private sector. And in order to do that you need to build trust.

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/singapore-economy/dpm-heng-double-down-trade-will-navigate-different-future-predecessors

For “business community”, substitute “civil society” and the point Ho Meng Kit makes is even more relevant. He’s no bully.

We all want a more civil society and Heng is in a better position to deliver it because he’s more collaborative, and no bully.

GE2020: Could have been 23 Oppo MPs

Emphasis mine.

12,367 votes (0.5% of the PAP’s popular vote) in all the marginal constituencies where the PAP scored around 55% or less (West Coast GRC, East Coast GRC, Bukit Panjang, Bukit Batok, Marymount) – and we might have woken up to headlines that Singaporeans elected 23 MPs from parties other than the PAP.

Or nearly a quarter of Parliament.

That’s how close this election was – in a way that even 2011 and arguably even 1991 wasn’t. To understand this, pay very close attention to the marginal seats (>45%, rounded to 1 decimal place) and count what would happen if all marginal seats flipped.

Carissa Cheow

For a more detailed analysis, click Carissa Cheow …

GE2020: Great piece from TRE

I’m taking my time commenting on the GE result because I got so many things wrong: : My GE2020 predictions.

---

Maybe it’s all about

GE2020: “send money!”

Or

Given the timing of the GE, the election could have been seen by many voters was a referendum on the PAP government’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak. Maybe the result simply tells us that 39% of voters think the PAP govt did a bad job?

One Adrian Tan on FB

As for Sengkang:

Residents said that there was lack of neighbourhood provision shops and hawker centres in Sengkang

The housing estate is home to many young families who felt that the younger WP team could represent them

Residents also sang praises of Dr Jamus Lim, a new candidate of

https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/ge2020-sengkang-residents-give-reasons-why-they-plumped-wp-including-better-connection-candidates

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And I’m not like those “experts” who having got things wrong, start explaining what happened in GE2020.

Whatever, here’s a really good piece from Augustine Low writing in TRE

Amidst the hope and euphoria, we should ask whether it’s a false dawn or a new beginning

There’s a saying, Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.

Haven’t Singaporeans been fooled before? Haven’t we seen this movie that we are now witnessing? What makes us think that things would be any different this time around?

The People’s Action Party (PAP)’s popular vote share for GE2020, although a significant drop from 2015, is still higher than 2011. The PAP lost a GRC for the first time in 2011 and had to do soul searching. It followed up with some position and policy changes and managed to appease ground sentiment and curtail the tide of resentment and unhappiness.

And so in GE2015, the PAP scored a landslide victory in the aftermath of Lee Kuan Yew’s death. The PAP saw this as a resounding endorsement by the people. It could do no wrong. The results of GE2011 were nothing but an aberration, to be consigned to the history books.

After the 2015 sweeping electoral success, water prices went up steeply, impending GST hike was announced, foreign influx continued, Parliament passed controversial changes to the elected presidency, the hotly debated online falsehoods Bill (POFMA) was passed. In recent months, handling of the COVID-19 pandemic became a contentious issue and a general election was called despite pleas and advice to hold back.

Many call GE2020 a watershed election. GE2011 was also dubbed a watershed election, the PAP losing a GRC for the first time. GE2015 was also called a watershed election, coming in the wake of Lee Kuan Yew’s passing.

If we start calling every GE a watershed election, when does it hold significance anymore?

For GE2020, the PAP was true to form, conducting its campaign in predictable fashion.

Raeesah Khan’s past social media posts were whipped up and made a meal of at the height of the hustings. To the PAP, it was an opportunistic strike par for the course. But many of us watched and winced because we had seen it all before, it was trademark gutter politics.

As for the calling into question of Dr Chee Soon Juan’s integrity, we have also seen it before. But the use of an analogy involving spousal violence to make a point – that we have not seen, and it made us wince.

Fear mongering? It happened. As with every GE, Singaporeans were told they could find the PAP losing power overnight and what’s more, winning alone wasn’t enough, the PAP had to win big otherwise investors would lose confidence.

In 2011, late Lee Kuan Yew told Aljunied GRC voters they would “repent” if they voted in the Workers’ Party. For GE2020, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong went to Sengkang GRC and told the voters, “Why settle for PAP-lite? The real thing is much better.”

He must have thought it was witty and amusing because he laughed as he said it. The Sengkang voters, as it turned out, rejected “the real thing” in favour of “PAP-lite”, otherwise known as the Workers’ Party.

But having asked voters to go for “the real thing” in Sengkang, the PAP repeatedly touted the fact that no matter what happens, there would be 12 opposition NCMPs in Parliament. Guess what, where this is concerned, voters would much rather prefer “the real thing” – electing an MP into Parliament is far superior to having a losing candidate as an NCMP.

So when all is said and done, given the results of GE2020, we can expect the PAP to conduct a post-mortem – like it did in 2011. We can expect some fine-tuning, even some position and policy changes.

As for a less divisive, more inclusive style of governance, embracing diversity and aspirations of Singaporeans – that, we shall have to see.

So it’s not yet time to get swept away on a tide of euphoria.

By all means, in the wake of GE2020, let’s look at the glass as half-full. The people have spoken, the rest remains to be seen.

The PAP said of Dr Chee Soon Juan during campaigning: “a leopard does not change its spots.”

The best we could hope for is for the PAP to prove that a leopard can indeed change its spots.

Augustine Low

Btw, glad to see he’s recovered: More evidence that being anti-PAP is bad for yr mental health

GE2020: “send money!”

The very surprising (and pleasant even though I got most things wrong: My GE2020 predictions) results reminded me of what a 19-year old Kenyan, Elsa Majimbo, who has become a social media sensation in Kenya for her humorous viral video monologues.

In one of her Instagram videos the 19-year-old tells the suitor staying at home during the coronavirus not to be “sending hugs, sending money… send money!”

“You want to send useless things and you have my bank details and address?”

Sounds like the message 39% of the voters are sending PM, Heng and the PAP, “Cut the bullshit, send the money”.

GE2020: Terry is right

Terry’s Online Channel is absolutely right

SAD. We already know the result: Why even with 4G donkeys, PAP will retain power and Is there really a better alternative to PAP 4G?.

Be prepared to Pay and Pay: Why Pay And Pay govt wants elections earlier than later.

UNLESS PAP gets only 60% of the popular vote: Why 65% of the popular vote is so impt to the PAP.

Vote wisely.

My GE2020 predictions

OK, OK, more like guesstimates and wishful thinking.

The Wankers will be reduced to Hougang. Bayee will have to shoulder the blame of losing Aljunied because moderate Chinese WP voters are wondering why they should support the Wankers after they fielded Ms Khan who shows no remorse about remarks about Chinese, Christians and the judiciary.

Yes she apologised, but only for hurting feelings, not for the underlying sentiments about Chinese, Christians and the judiciary. In the old days, pre Bayee, WP MP candidates were vetted to ensure that they were white sheets of paper, not colourful sheets of paper. The WP under Low was mindful of its public image as a respectable multiracial, albeit with a yellow flavour.

Bayee will resign as Sec-Gen and Dennis Tan will be the new Sec-Gen. Low has returned!

(Btw, even without Heng leading the PAP team, they’d lose East Coast. The Wankers are only wanking themselves if they really tot they could win East Coast. Even if Ivan Lim were the PAP’s lead candidate, the PAP would win. Fyi, I live juz outside the GRC: in Joo Chiat ward.)

Mad Dog will lose and he’ll go round biting everyone.

Lim Tean’s teams will all lose their deposits. As will Goh Meng Seng. This is wishful thinking rather than guesstimate.

S/o JBJ will finally balek UK. Good riddance to bad rubbish. He spent most of circuit breaker in the UK.

PSP will win the West Coast and Dr Paul win enter parly as an MP.

PAP will win anywhere between 65-70% of the popular vote. But many older votes (65 and above) will not be voting because of fears of catching Covid-19. The authorities have told them: “It is a valid reason to not vote because you are unwell.” There’s no mention of the need to produce an MC when applying to be reinstated as a voter.

Vote wisely to try to keep the PAP’s share of the vote about 60%: why 65% of the popular vote is so impt to the PAP. This is the only way to ensure we won’t have to Pay And Pay: .Why Pay And Pay govt wants elections earlier than later

GE 2020: LKY is dead! Long live LKY!

As usual LHL is talking cock when he said

There will be no LKY bonus or SG50 to help the ruling party

He obviously forgot about the $1200++ we got and all the other Budget goodies: Cheat sheet for Fortitude Budget and other Budgets.

---

More talking cock by LHL

Xia suay! LKY’s really dishonourable son?

Speaking truth to LHY

—–

But then this kind of $ is “peanuts” for him.

Seriously, this GE is still about LKY’s legacy because the PM in waiting is the last direct link we will ever have with LKY: years ago, he was handpicked by LKY for greater things and he passed LKY’s tests with flying colours.

LKY described Heng as the best principal private secretary he ever had.

He has one of the finest minds among the civil servants I have worked with.

“One Man’s View of the World” by one Harry Lee

(To be fair LKY made this snide remark about him: “The only pity is that he is not of a big bulk, which makes a difference in a mass rally.”.

A really wicked tot: Maybe the 9th Immortal arranged for Covid-19 so that Heng could avoid addressing a mass rally? Only joking leh.)

Joke’s aside, this is the last and final chance for voters to ensure that LKY lives through the man he says:

He has one of the finest minds among the civil servants I have worked with“One Man’s View of the World”

Vote wisely.

Criticism of PAP govt’s handling of Covid-19 is really “noise”

Not me but Blackbox.

Interesting that the PAP govt’s standing has not been diminished by the cock up over FTs that resulted a lockdown (albeit a soft one) circuit breaker being imposed. If you read TRE and other anti-PAP alt media or social media, you’d think that the only reason S’poreans are not rioting over the handling of the Covid-19 pandemic is fear of further govt repression.

Reasons why S’pore give the PAP govt the benefit of the doubt on the FT dorms?

FT dorms scandal: Blame NIMBY S’poreans not the PAP govt (Ownself blame ownself)

Covid-19: We have our FT Indian workers, Poland has its coal miners (World wide problem)

Ang mohs rioted meh? Not South Asians? Workers’ dorms are multi-racial? (Pay-back time for rioting)

Covid-19: “Well-off” local family living (almost) like manual workers from India (Many S’poreans live like FT dorm workers)

Would the dorm workers prefer to be repatriated to India and Bangladesh? (Better here than back home)

Schematic on how Covid-19 affects the body explains why infected Indian dorm workers are still alive (Btw Covid-19: Death loves diabetic ethnic Indians in hospital and Covid-19: Ethnic Indians, Pakistanis and Bangladeshis got higher death rates in UK)

FT dorms scandal: Blame NIMBY S’poreans not the PAP govt

Not me but the Economist on Not In My Back Yard S,poreans:

Migrant workers are vital to Singapore’s economy, as they make up two-fifths of the labour force. But they are not a popular cause.

…

So it is brave of the government to pick a fight with voters on the subject, with an election expected within months.

On June 1st Lawrence Wong, co-chair of Singapore’s covid-19 task-force, announced plans to build lower-density dormitories for some 100,000 migrant workers. The new housing, he warned, would inevitably encroach on other residential areas. When the government built workers’ dormitories in one central district in 2009, the pap was subsequently thumped at the ballot box there.

https://www.economist.com/asia/2020/06/20/singapore-promises-roomier-digs-for-migrant-workers

And alt media and anti-PAP social activists keep blaming the PAP for the FT dorm problem.

Notice the deafening licence from the Wankers, Lim Tean and Goh Meng Seng and other oppos on the FT dorms’ problems?

The worst electoral showing for the ruling People’s Action Party (pap) was in 2011, when the opposition put a call for fewer migrants at the heart of their campaign.

Economist

Only the SDP has spoken out on the FT dorms’ problems.

S’pore: Where we really have choices

On her FB page, a friend (real life) who migrated to Australia (her genius of a son could not pass Chinese to save his life and ended up in neighbourhood “good” school: not good enough for mummy) in a conversation about purchasing power parity (The PPP is a macroeconomic tool that allows the comparison of what it costs to buy the same/similar basket of goods across different countries.) wrote: 

In my observation Singapore has a big range, so happily the options are many – in housing, transport, dining & food. If one is happy/limited to shelter in public housing, MRT/uber & airconed hawker centres/bistros you can have a pretty decent life. In Australia the range is much narrower, for instance, there isin’t that many ultra-expensive restaurants nor cheap and good food outlets

She also analysed the relative rankings of S’pore and Oz:

Surprisingly Singapore just scraped through at #50 of the world’s most expensive countries with a price level of minus 4% below average. Australia has the dubious honour of being #6 with a price level of +68% above average.

Whatever, we may be living in a de facto one-party state, but we sure can mix and match our life style choices.

Vote wisely: Is there really a better alternative to PAP 4G?

But try to make sure PAP share of the vote juz exceeds 60%: Why 65% of the popular vote is so impt to the PAP. If more sure to PAP and Pay

Pay And Pay

Articles and analysis of various “price increase” written by Uncle Leong* (Remember him?)

Water – “PUB: $1.1b profits last 7 years – how much last 53 years? (Feb 24, 2017)

Service & Conservancy Charges – “S & CC: A truly caring Govt?” (Feb 17, 2017)

Gas – “City Gas prices to rise by 4.5 per cent from Feb 1” (Jan 31, 2017)

Electricity – “Electricity: One of the highest in the world? (Jan 1, 2017)

Childcare fees – “Fee hikes at 200 childcare centres this year” (Jan 1, 2017)

Parking – “HDB car park rates increase 60%? (Dec 16, 2016)

Rubbish fees – “Rubbish fees up: NEA surplus up 32.9%? (Nov 8, 2016)

University hostel fees – “University hostel fees up 6.8% p.a. despite $1b surplus?” (Jun 28, 2016)

Taxis licensing – “Taxi drivers hit by triple whammy?” (Jun 24, 2016)

Hawkers’ misc fees – “Hawkers’ misc fees increased by ? %? (Jun 22, 2016)

Why Pay And Pay govt wants elections earlier than later

————————————————

*PM’s defamation suit against Uncle Leong coming to court soon. Talk cock, sing song Lim Tean is defending him but charging a lot of money. Not pro bono work.

S’poreans see Fortitude Budget no ak

That’s the conclusion I draw from the following slides from Blackbox dated 4 June 2020. S’poreans not that stupid: they know Fortitude Budget full of BS and smoke and mirrors.

https://blackbox.com.sg/everyone/2020/04/30/covid-19-weekly-community-tracking

Why Pay And Pay govt wants elections earlier than later

Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat says better for S’pore to call for general elections as soon as possible Our next election must take place by April 14, 2021 and some leading Oppo leaders (Think Mad Dog) are more than happy for the PAP govt to continue ruling until the pandemic is tamed: Xia suay! SDP wants PAP to remain in power until after virus threat ends

But Heng said elections ought to happen soon as “the earlier we can rally everybody together to deal with these very significant challenges ahead, and also to deal with these very significant uncertainties in the months and years ahead”, the better to prepare S’pore for the future. He said the economy faces significant long-term challenges that need to be dealt with over the next five to 10 years, he said.

Heng, in response to a question if S’poreans will have to wait until Phase 3 of resuming economic activity before the election: “The sooner that we can deal with the longer term challenges, the better S’poreans will emerge out of this, and S’pore will emerge stronger. So I would say that, yes, elections are coming nearer by the day, and you have to be prepared for it.”

Here’s the point to note

“Our financial position will be a lot weaker in the coming years. And I’m thinking hard about this, about what we need to do, and how we need to continue to find ways that we can manage this difficult financial situation.”

DPM Heng

In simple English, “We got to find the money to pay for all the goodies”: Cheat sheet for Fortitude Budget/ Hali tied of signing?/ Peanuts?. Remember that Mah Bow Tan (Remember him?) once said that that raiding the reserves is not an option?. Well Heng and gang have been raiding drawing down the reserves,

Once election is won by 70%, and Lim Tean, S/o JBJ, Goh Meng Seng, Tan Kin Lian and Mad Dog really trying hard to ensure that the PAP gets 80% of the popular vote, the taxes and levies will up.

GST might go up even earlier than promised: “No money to pay millionaire Hali and ministers salsries”, PAP govt will say.

And tariffs on utilities will go up. Remember VivianB had said in parly in 2015 (juz before GE) that there was no need to change the price of water because of PUB’s improvements in membrane tech and productivity and that the water tariff and WCT reflected the scarcity of water, but prices went up after GE 2017.

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Pay And Pay

Articles and analysis of various “price increase” written by Uncle Leong (Remember him?)

Water – “PUB: $1.1b profits last 7 years – how much last 53 years? (Feb 24, 2017)

Service & Conservancy Charges – “S & CC: A truly caring Govt?” (Feb 17, 2017)

Gas – “City Gas prices to rise by 4.5 per cent from Feb 1” (Jan 31, 2017)

Electricity – “Electricity: One of the highest in the world? (Jan 1, 2017)

Childcare fees – “Fee hikes at 200 childcare centres this year” (Jan 1, 2017)

Parking – “HDB car park rates increase 60%? (Dec 16, 2016)

Rubbish fees – “Rubbish fees up: NEA surplus up 32.9%? (Nov 8, 2016)

University hostel fees – “University hostel fees up 6.8% p.a. despite $1b surplus?” (Jun 28, 2016)

Taxis licensing – “Taxi drivers hit by triple whammy?” (Jun 24, 2016)

Hawkers’ misc fees – “Hawkers’ misc fees increased by ? %? (Jun 22, 2016)

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And income tax and corporate taxes.

Remember after GE, the PAP’s 4G has their mandate ( Why 65% of the popular vote is so impt to the PAP; Why even with 4G donkeys, PAP will retain power; and Is there really a better alternative to PAP 4G? ) and can give voters the finger.

What better way than by increasing taxes and levies?

PAP govt prudent? This prudence?

Our debt already so high. Still want to spend so much money?

How come PAP running dogs (Apologies to the real dogs) in parliament not KPKBing that PAP must be prudent and not pass on the sins of overspending onto future generations.

The PAP govt is throwing US$41.6, more than 10% of GDP to fight the economic and financial consequences of the pandemic in an election year.

Whatever happened to MPs like Liang Eng Hwa, Kate Spade (who else?), Hri Kumat and Arthur Fong: PM aiming left, to hit the centre/ Axed? PAP MPs who don’t get it.

When they so quiet?

Govt change policy, so they sit down and shut up?

Related posts:

Can the hard-hit spend their way out of a recession?

“Prudent banker” is an oxymoron

S’pore: Bottom of developed world

We bottom of the class in the developed world when it comes to accountability. We Third world.

A one time PAP apologist and PAP poster boy, Prof Tommy Koh’s comment, “The way Singapore treats its foreign workers is not First World but Third World,” can be rephrased “The way the Singapore government treats its citizens is not First World but Third World.”

Think the tai chi over the Covid-19 cases among our FT workers living in PAP govt approved dorms. The PAP govt screwed up, denies it screwed up (Not even willing to say “It’s an honest mistake”), and we are in lockdown.

But

Why even with 4G donkeys, PAP will retain power

Is there really a better alternative to PAP 4G?

S’poreans don’t trust Ah Loong’s govt isit?

Economist writes:

Contact tracing helps to direct testing more precisely at those likely to be infected. Using apps helps speed this up.

But only, though, if phone users are willing to adopt the app.

It goes on to cite S’pore’s example as a place where people are not downloading an app.

Here, Singapore’s experience is salutary. Its government rolled out a contact-tracing app, TraceTogether, on March 20th. So far, however, this has been downloaded by only a sixth of Singapore’s population—barely a quarter of the 60% epidemiologists reckon is needed if it is to be effective at breaking the local epidemic.

https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2020/04/16/app-based-contact-tracing-may-help-countries-get-out-of-lockdown

And this despite our app being praised by ang moh human rights activists.

Singapore’s TraceTogether, which has been praised by privacy experts for collecting a bare minimum of data, could provide a template for ang moh apps concerned about privacy. Rather than constantly tracking people, it uses Bluetooth to record the proximity to other app users so that they can be alerted if any app user later test positive for the virus.

BBC technology correspondent

Jeni Tennison of the Open Data Institute:

“[C]urrently, there’s very little transparency about what kind of design is being considered and implemented by the [UK]government.”

She goes on

[T]here are examples out there of good practice. She cites Singapore, which she says generally has a reputation for excessive surveillance of its citizens, but has developed an app which captures the bare minimum of data.

“So every time that you meet somebody with your phone, and they have the same app on their phone, it records the fact that you have met, but it doesn’t record anything about where you are or who those other people are. It’s only there so that if you catch the disease, those people that you have come into contact with or been close to you can get notified about that fact.”

Kirsten Han has unfriended all these ang mohs who show the lies she tells about the PAP govt.

Covid-19 R elections: Valid point/ PAP wayanging, Oppo fell for it

Going by our social habits, Singapotato, a pro-PAP FB page, has a good point. LOL.

Seriously, the Oppo have fallen into a PAP trap.

My view is that the PAP’s hints (nothing more) of an election during the Covid-19 outbreak, was a cunning trap to get the Oppo and the 30% aligned to it to say that OK for PAP to change constitution to remain in power until outbreak is controlled or eradicated.

The Oppo and the 30% fell for it: Xia suay! SDP wants PAP to remain in power until after virus threat ends. So now the PAP can change the constitution to remain in power beyond March next year. PAP can say with a straight face, “There’s a consensus for the change.”

The Oppo and 30% should have said, “Let’s wait until December this year, shall we? Then make a decision on any constitutional amendment.”

The PAP or rather the PM has learnt lessons from the “Malay presidency” is “Calling a deer a horse”? fiasco. Related posts: Hali is also into “Post-truth”, More on Hali’s judgement between 2007 -2011/ Meritocracy? What meritocracy?, and #hardlymahpresident.

With Oppo like ours, PAP will rule forever and a day: Is there really a better alternative to PAP 4G?

GE 2015, repeat of GE 2001? (Edited in 2020)

Read what JG had to say about the then coming 2015 GE. It applies to the coming GE because the Wuhan virus shows that the system set up still works very well. While her comments about electoral boundaries are dated, her underlying analysis is not.

This piece is a shortened version of the original and there’s a link to the original at the end of the piece.

Hope that JG is well and will start writing again.

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Below is a piece that appeared in TRE’s letters section. I commend it for yr reading. V.V. good good analysis. Most of which I agree. Actually a better comparison would be with the GE in 1997, when the SDP dropped from 2 seats to zero. Oppo had two seats from 4. And the PAP had a 5 points increase in its share of the popular vote.

[…]

Dear TRE and TRE readers,

I have read your comments to my earlier article and not surprisingly, many of you are in denial of this possibility. Many of you think I am PAP IB or just out of touch. I am not. I have contributed comments before to TRE (TRE admin can easily check against the email address that I use) and can see that indeed all my previous comments are not pro-PAP.

In Greek mytology, Cassandra warned the people about what was happening but was ignored to the people’s detriment. I can see what is happening and it is my duty to put this red flag right in front of you so you too do not get shell shocked if it happens.

Simply put : GE 2015 will be to PM LHL what GE 2001 is to GCT. And of all people, WP’s LTK knows it and this is why he is strategising accordingly.

Election rides on waves. GE 2011 was a wave election and even the PAP candidates sensed it. The people were angry – Josephine Teo said “sometimes we don’t know why people are so angry”, WP’s LTK risked everything on the table by leaving Hougang SMC and joining the Aljunied GRC. But don’t assume that just because the last election was a wave that favored the opposition, it will be the same this year.

Sometimes the wave can turn and favor the PAP too, although TRE readers find that hard to believe. GE 2001 was a wave election that favored the PAP because the people were scared when the economy fell off the cliff after the 9/11 attacks. Result : Unexpected +10% swing to the PAP and even WP’s LTK Hougang share of votes went down by 1.7%.

GE 2001 was a crushing blow to opposition supporters. They did not see it coming. They could not believe it. They saw the crowds in the opposition rallies and thought they were going to win, this time. It was totally unexpected and a big blow. I’m writing this article so that you do not feel that same way in this GE 2015.

GE 2015 will similarly be a wave election favoring the PAP. The LKY sentiment is still strong, especially among the seniors. Couple that with the Pioneer Package and recently concluded SG50 celebrations which put many people in a good mood. I’ve elaborated on all these in my last post, so will not do this here.

But I will share this lesson from history : Indira Gandhi was assasinated on Oct 1984 and a snap election was held on Dec 1984. Riding on the wave of sympathy votes, Congress party gained 30 seats and a landslide victory. You ignore lessons from history to your peril. Many of you think LKY is no big deal but to _70% of the voting population, he’s a big big big deal.

In any case, the strongest indication that I may be right comes from no other than WP’s LTK himself. Other than CST, he is the only surviving opposition MP who has lived through wave elections that turn against him. So of all people, he’s easily the shrewdest and most battle hardened politician around.

What is PAP’s strategy when they released the electoral boundaries? Simple –

1) Just contain WP’s influence solely to Aljunied GRC and Hougaing SMC. In other words, give up on these.

2) Fortify East Coast GRC by cutting off Feng Shan SMC. I estimate that pro-forma basis, GE 2011 would have seen East Coast GRC at 60% PAP votes, not just 55%, with this change. Dissolve Joo Chiat SMC.

3) Flood all the GRCs that WP is likely to contest in with veteran, strong MPs. Look at Jalan Besar GRC — it now includes the Chinatown ward of ever popular Lily Neo carved out of Tanjong Pagar. Plus heavyweight unionist Heng Chee How. Look at Yishun GRC — it has now included the strongest ward of former AMK GRC, ie. Kebun Baru.

4) Adopt a new strategy of putting in retiring, veteran MPs into winnable areas. Thus move Charles Chong out of Joo Chiat and get him to win back Punggol East SMC. Punggol East SMC was lost in the 2013 BE not because Li Lian was a particularly strong candidate but because “Son of Punggol” made so many rookie mistakes that he was a bad candidate.

Look at how LTK responded.

LTK sensed that this election will be different from GE 2011 and much tougher because this time, the wave will turn towards the PAP.

Look at WP’s message in this GE 2015 –

“I know you are happy with the changes that the PAP has started to make. But you got all these changes, because you voted us opposition into Parliament. If you are so happy now that you don’t vote for us, you will regret it because PAP will take you for granted again”.

I repeat : ” I know you are happy “. In other words, he knows the electorate mood in GE 2015 is not the same as GE 2011.

He knows that the electoral boundary changes PAP has made will make it more difficult to gain ground. His own people are giving him this feedback too — here is what Gerald Giam posted on 6th Aug in his Facebook :

“Visited Simei again yesterday evening. Many residents told us they were glad we were coming back to contest. Had a good chat with one resident who said she was voting for the incumbent because she liked the local MP. I acknowledged that the local MP has done a good job (Jessica’s work at the local and town level is certainly something we look to emulate) but that a general election is about more than just voting for a local MP.”

He also knows that PAP had attacked AHPETC hard enough that while many people still do not fully buy PAP’s story about “integrity problems”, it is enough to cast doubts in middle-ground voters mind, especially those outside of Aljunied GRC. At the same time, he knows that by 31-Aug, the audit results for FY 2014 must be released and more likely than not, it is again a poor audit results.

This is why he has decided to keep the Aljunied GRC MPs intact. In other words, he is playing defensive, not offensive, in this GE 2015. Uncharacteristic of him, he announces this very early so that the PAP will “lose hope” and not field any changes in their weak team in Aljunied. He hopes that he will get _55% of votes this time, so that he can claim a mandate from the Aljunied residents that notwithstanding all the AHPETC audit issues, they back him strongly. This is similar to how, after the Saw affair, there was a BE in Hougang and all talks about “integrity problem” dissolved when they did better in that BE than in GE 2011 itself.

His best hope for a seat pickup is in Feng Shan SMC and he’ll probably field Gerald Giam there. When PAP cut Feng Shan off from East Coast, PAP is already prepared to potentially lose this SMC in order to save East Coast GRC. (Like I said, on a pro-forma basis, this new “East Coast” GRC would have been 60% PAP votes in GE 2011. A 10% swing against the PAP is extremely unlikely.) But to still give this their best fight, they’ll likely use their “use retiring veteran MP” strategy and probably deploy Yeo Guat Kwang there.

What’s the conclusion from all these tea leaves ?

People’s sentiments for or against a ruling party can change. Sometimes the wave goes against the PAP (like GE 2011) but sometimes it goes for the PAP (like GE 1997 and GE 2001).

If you read the wind condition wrongly, you will get crushed. Look at what happened to SDP in pro-PAP wave election GE 1997 : it lost all 4 seats.

LTK is a very shrewd politician who has lived through these waves – both for and against him. He knows that GE 2015 is not going to be a continuation of GE 2011. He knows that in politics, sometimes you live to fight another day. So he is playing defensive this election. He is smart — he can see all the writing on the wall (as I’ve detailed in my earlier “PAP will do very well in this election” post).

The only possible gains for WP is Feng Shan SMC, offseted by the very real possibility of losing Punggol East SMC.

Meanwhile, because all the other GRCs that WP is contesting in such as Yishun GRC, Jalan Besar GRC and East Coast GRC had been significantly fortified by the PAP, PAP’s share of votes will increase, not decrease.

The only other wild card is Marine Parade GRC. PAP did not expect that NSP will give up this so easily and thus did not expect a WP fight here. But they did win by 55% in GE 2011. Couple this with the expected pro-PAP wave and notwithstanding GCT being a liability, they still expect to win this GRC. Even if they win by 55%, it will be good enough. They are thinking long term too — if WP did no better than NSP in contesting Marine Parade, in future GEs, NSP will not give in so easily to WP and 3-corner fights will be more likely to happen.

If what I’ve said is true :

1) Then PAP will likely win _60% of votes this election. As I said, even if GE 2011 share of votes everywhere remain, but only Tanjong Pagar is now included with 70% PAP support due to LKY sentiment, the total pro-forma PAP votes would have been ~62%.

2) WP’s strategy is absolutely the right one. Play defensive, get a stronger mandate from Aljunied GRC to overcome the AHPETC issue, live to fight another day. By GE 2020, the middle class squeeze will get worse especially with Medishield Life coming in place forcing everyone to buy insurance that increases in price every year. And more and more foreigners crowd this place. And then WP will ride that wave to increase its seats.

3) The other parties all need to wise up. Forget about putting their big guns into GRCs. Put their best candidate into one or two SMCs. And instead of working the ground in different GRCs each weekend, just keep walking the same ground in the SMC again and again, just like Ah Lian did to win the Punggol East BE. Concentrate your time and resources there. At least, get a foothold into Parliament and make a name for yourself, then you will get a chance to get more seats and potentially a GRC in the future. Otherwise, you will forever be relegated as a non-entity, someone who makes noise on the Internet only.

JG

*  Submitted by TRE reader.

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Original piece: GE 2015, repeat of GE 2001?https://atans1.wordpress.com/2015/08/23/ge-2015-repeat-of-ge-2001/

Xia suay: life insurance makes a person want to die isit?

I tot the above when I read

[I]dea of unemployment insurance to help retrenched older workers has ‘serious downsides’: Josephine Teo

Constructive, nation-building media

The report goes on:

Mrs Teo said that the Government will “keep an open mind” on unemployment insurance, but pointed out that there are serious downsides to having such a provision. These include reducing workers’ motivation to find work as well as decreasing the willingness of employers to pay retrenchment benefits.

Read more at https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/workers-partys-idea-unemployment-insurance-help-retrenched-older-workers-has-serious?fbclid=IwAR3ODcCR7Oac220dDid0OpipeOJ5KMaLbGVhDPVjEhQc-nFoI_KCagZipvA

I’ll let Chris Kuan and Yeoh Lam Keong explain why Jos’ mouth is full of cock as usual.

Chris Kuan

Contrary to what the Minister said, there are plenty of countries with unemployment insurance and yet low unemployment rates. In my view, there is no universal evidence that it reduces a worker’s incentive to find re-employment, So the whole establishment narrative that unemployment insurance (and jobless benefits) leads to high unemployment is not a universal fact. It is just another moral panic button. However she might be right that unemployment insurance may prove unworkable in Singapore. Why? Because as long as there is easy access to foreign labour, such a scheme may not make it any easier to find re-employment or more importantly provide for better job matches to skills, experience and qualifications which is what it is meant to do. That’s what the establishment failed to mention – that employment protection / stabilization schemes run against the principal policy of growing the economy through access to cheaper labour. It is far easier to say to the plebs that unemployment insurance leads to high unemployment and not say why a labour market with such a hugh foreign worker content, makes it so.

https://www.facebook.com/chris.kuan.94/posts/1282587465264672

Yeoh Lam Keong

Unfortunately, Manpower Minister Josephine Teo does not seem to have a sufficient understanding of labour market economics required to see the important need for unemployment insurance ( UI ) in Singapore for at least three reasons.

First, Minister Teo’s portrayal that countries with UI “usually have persistently high unemployment “ is inaccurate at best and misleading at worst.

Of the 27 member OECD developed countries, 25 operated an unemployment insurance systems including many countries with low unemployment eg Germany, Japan, Switzerland, Korea and Taiwan including some much more competitive export economies with lower unemployment than Singapore ( Germany and Japan ).

Second, there is little evidence of an inefficient reduction in incentive to work in properly designed UI systems as Minister Teo claims . In fact, the labour market evidence shows that UI for about 3 months enables optimum job search that prevents workers from jumping at the first job that may not be such a good match for their skills or experience.

Third, Minister Teo seems oblivious to the trend that artificial intelligence is already increasingly replacing both unskilled and skilled workers and consigning them to a gig economy of much more frequent job shifts, often with lesser paying work.

There are currently an estimated 25-30,000 households who fall into absolute poverty at any one time because of such involuntary unemployment. Without an automatic unemployment protection system , many fall through the cracks of our Commcare and skills retraining systems.

Not putting in place an intelligent unemployment protection system is thus short sighted, inhumane and just poor manpower policy, imho.

More at https://www.facebook.com/lamkeong.yeoh/posts/3512139472194428

But not having unemployment insurance is a Hard Truth and PAP ministers die die must hold onto. It’s not a matter of economic pragmatism.

The Hardest Truth: I’ve blogged before that the PAP doesn’t need that many smart people as it follows most of the Economist’s prescriptions (except on hanging, drug legalisation, free media and a liberal democracy): PAP’s bible challenges “market-based solution”)

Hard Truths

How PAP can make S’poreans happier but won’t

Welfarism the PAP way/ The last word on GST

The PAP way is the American corporate way

We have to move on: Moving on from Hard Truths To Hard Choices.

The problems are

Is there really a better alternative to PAP 4G?

Hard Truth why PAP wins and wins

What if GST goes up today?

I’ve predicted sometime back that GST will not go up this yr: Double confirm: No GST rise this yr.because the economy is weak.

Already, economic forecasts have been slashed:

After seeing its economy grow at a decade-low of 0.7 per cent last year, Singapore is expecting possibly even slower growth in 2020 and has downgraded its gross domestic product (GDP) forecast amid concerns about the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak.

Economic growth for this year is expected to come in at around 0.5 per cent, the mid-point of a new estimated range of between -0.5 per cent and 1.5 per cent, said the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) on Monday (Feb 17).

The previous forecast range announced last November was 0.5 per cent to 2.5 per cent.

Constructive, nation-building CNA

If the PAP govt, die die insists that GST must go up because as PAP supporter Grace Yeo‎ puts it

It’s a no brainer to be populist and say, tax less and give more. BTW, not increasing the GST is not even a new idea. For years and years, politicians hv campaigned against increasing of prices. I can also say to the government too. Mr Government, please don’t increase the GST or for that matter, any direct or indirect taxes. Also, give more and more money to help Singaporeans defray costs of living and to live a better quality of life, especially to the poor, the needy, the vulnerable, and the disadvantaged, and those who are suffering under unforeseen and uncontrollable distress. There, I hv said it – without much thinking and it’s highly popular and appealing, isn’t it? A non-political novice will propose solutions on how to generate more revenue and/or increase net investment returns (NIR). In addition, it’s one thing to get the private sector to fund Changi Airport Terminal 5 and in doing so, cede a degree of control to the private sector, but quite another to look into how to manage and control possible fallouts, including both intended and unintended consequences from having a public-private sector partnership. More importantly, what’s key right now is winning the battle against the virus … The time has come to compel our people to make hard, deep and inconvenient changes, including re-skilling, up-skilling, deep-skilling and multi-skilling themselves (quoted from the NTUC) and such changes will bring about unhappiness and dissatisfaction from many quarters of society …

the recent fall in the S$ will be “peanuts”: S$ tanks as GDP forecasts slashed and Why has M$ strengthened against S$?.

Japan increased its version of GST by 2 points in October last year and the result was that annualised GDP fell by a much steeper than expected 6.3% in October-December 2019.

Japan’s economy shrank at the fastest rate in five years at the end of 2019 as it was hit by a sales tax rise, a major typhoon and weak global demand.

As the PAP 4G needs 65% of the popular vote, I doubt they would listen to Grace Yeo‎ who die die advocates GST going up this yr even though when China sneezes, S’pore in intensive care.

PAP $G leaders not as stupid as her.

With fans like her, the PAP needs enemies like Mad Dog, Lim Tean, Goh Meng Seng, Tan Kin Lian, Tan Jee Say and that guy on Finland’s dole: Anti-PAP activists loi hei wish.

 

 

Hard Truth about Old Guard’s insight on home ownership

It’s a myth that LKY and Dr Goh etc were geniuses for their insight into the importance of home ownership in building a nation and their public housing building programnes.

They were juz good in copying and pasting best practice of ang mosh. From the PAP’s bible*:

After the second world war … Governments across the rich world decided that they had to do more to care for their citizens—both as a thank-you for the sacrifices and to ward off the communist threat.

To this end, they vowed to boost home-ownership. A country of owner-occupiers, the thinking went, would be financially stable. People could draw down on equity in their house when they hit retirement or if they found themselves in difficulty. In the late 1940s and the 1950s manifestos of Western political parties became more likely to identify home ownership as a policy goal, according to research by Sebastian Kohl of the Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies. Over time, the notion that owner occupation was superior to renting became common, even apparently self-evident.

Policies to promote owner-occupation proliferated. In America the Veterans Administration made mortgages with no down-payment available to veterans in the mid-1940s. Canada established the Central Mortgage and Housing Corporation for returning war veterans. In 1950 the Japanese government established the Government Housing Loan Corporation to provide low-interest, fixed-rate mortgages. Changes to international financial regulations also encouraged banks to issue mortgages.

https://www.economist.com/special-report/2020/01/16/how-housing-became-the-worlds-biggest-asset-class

Related post:If LKY were alive, PAP govt wouldn’t publicly admit that HDB leases end worth nothing

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*PAP’s bible

I’ve blogged before that the PAP doesn’t need that many smart people as it follows most of the Economist’s prescriptions (except on hanging, drug legalisation, free media and a liberal democracy). It has been an Economist mantra that market pricing is “betterest” because it uncovers the “correct” price. It is also a PAP Hard Truth.

PAP’s bible

Double confirm: No GST rise this yr

Thanks to the Wuhan virus.

Remember you heard this here first.

During the recent CNY gatherings of the elites, I put my finger to the hot air being emitted from the BS I was smelling and sensed that the consensus was that the PAP govt would really, really like to defer the two points GST rise penciled in for this yr to make sure that it gets 65% of the popular vote needed to show that they have the people’s mandate.

Anything less is F9.

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I wrote this late last yr

A GE late this year as expected by me in 2018 (Akan datang: GE in late 2019) even with vote losers like pending GST rises etc (PAP is like one armed swordsman) would have resulted in a PAP victory of around 62% (How the PAP can get 62% is explained in PAP fighting for every last vote).

But 65%? No way without more dropping GST rise ( How PAP can win 65% plus of the vote) or more goodies. Well a GST rise is set in stone, so got to have more bribes goodies, all with our own money.

Why no GE in Dec 2019

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Only the dogmas that the Hard Truth (Or BS?) that the PAP does not do populist policies ever

By addressing the issue of affordability, will he implicitly be sending the message that he is be ditching dad’s Hard Truth that populism is bad**?

Not if Education Minister Heng Swee Keat, the minister in-charge of Our Singapore Conversation (OSC), is to believed. He told the media this week that OSC is not a knee-jerk, “populist” policy-making exercise. It is not a “major meet-the-people session”, with the govt collating a wish list and then giving the people what they want. He emphasised that OSC does not sacrifice any strategic thinking on the part of the govt for the sake of showing empathy with the people.

Analysing PM’s coming rally speech

and does not admit making mistakes:

All the POFMA orders flying around before an expected GE next yr, reminded me that George Orwell

wrote that because totalitarian regimes insist that the leadership is infallible, history must be perpetually rewritten in order to eliminate evidence of past mistakes. Totalitarianism thus “demands a disbelief in the very existence of objective truth.” Orwell added darkly that “to be corrupted by totalitarianism one does not have to live in a totalitarian country”; one simply had to surrender to certain habits of thought.

https://www.economist.com/open-future/2019/12/04/is-liberalism-really-kaput

Why PAP never admits to mistakes?

(Related post: Why one-party rule sucks for Xi, Lee and Heng)

were preventing the PAP govt from doing what it wanted to do. Ownself sabo ownself.

Well given that the Wuhan Virus will hurt the economy (China sneezes, S’pore in intensive care), this gives the PAP govt a really good excuse to change its mind. PM or Heng can reasonably say:

When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, Sir?

Supposedly said by Keynes.

Don’t believe me? The way is being prepared by ministers and the constructive, nation-building media

ST Lite headline:

Worst hit by Wuhan coronavirus outbreak, tourism and transport sectors to get targeted help in Budget: DPM Heng

ST headline:

Key focus on protecting jobs and helping businesses: Chan Chun Sing

What better way to help tourism and transport sectors and help businesses in general, and protect jobs than by deferring the GST rise until the the economy recovers?

And still give out the Budget”goodies” (our money leh): sweeteners originally meant to make palatable the GST rise. “See how generous we are”.

Christmas 2020 and Chinese New Year 2021 will come early in Feb 2020

We’ll still get a GST rise but maybe next year the world economy will be worried by political turmoil in China as Xi has to explain why he has not lost the mandate of heaven, despite repeated market crashes, African swine fever, the Wuhan virus and H1N1 swine fever. There are credible reports of reports of the last occurring in China.

Other reasons that the PAP will get the votes to take it over the 65% pass mark:

• In a crisis, Is there really a better alternative to PAP 4G?
• Anti-PAPpists caught lying: Fake news that S’poreans panicking about shortage of masks
• PAP listens: China ban after 100,000 sign petition asking for ban

Vote wisely.

 

 

 

 

Kee Chiu admits PAP are failing

Singapore’s political system must evolve, deliver concrete solutions: Chan Chun Sing

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/singapore-political-system-chan-chun-sing-12289372?fbclid=IwAR25Ow1pWejGNvJL3ZBDZz6vDLMnie-fSrxuPJtzBLMuJTLOt3epfIHmHqQ

Well by saying “Singapore’s political system must evolve, deliver concrete solutions” doesn’t this imply that Singapore’s political system is not evolving, delivering concrete solutions? And as S’pore is a de-facto one-party state since 1957 when the PAP came into power with an overwhelming electoral mandate, the PAP cannot blame anyone for a political system that is not evolving, delivering concrete solutions: Why one-party rule sucks for Xi, Lee and Heng

The word “implied” appeared in the POFMA orders against Brad Bowels and Lim Tean. Brad Bowyers

said the authorities had read the four points of his post “wrongly and then said my post ‘implied’ this and ‘implied’ that and so demanded it to be labelled as false”.

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3043034/singapores-fake-news-law-protecting-truth-or-restricting-free

For further reading on the Alice-in-Wonderland world PORMA has created, read: Fake news law: Ownself judge where I wrote:

 “In the proposed fake news law, ministers are judge and jury.”

and

My main concern is that it makes ministers the initial (and in most cases the final and only) arbiters of truth about claims regarding the PAP government’s performance: “Ownself judge ownself”.

And

POFMA these ministers?

And

No, not fake news that deserves to kanna PORMA, but from the PAP’s very own minister for Malay affairs, a few weeks ago

Malay-Muslim community to be consulted on more issues that concern them: Masagos

Malay community not consulted enough about their concerns

And

Electricity tariff to rise 3.5% in January-March to hit 5-year high

Why MSM no kanna POFMA for spreading fake news?

You might also want to read:

“Black is white, white is black”: Our UK ambassador defends POFMA

Fact v opinion & “Lies, damned lies, and statistics”

Why PAP never admits to mistakes?

Fake news is in the eyes of the beholder

The one-party state and fake news

Why I no ak the Select Committee hearings on Deliberate Online Falsehoods 

 

4% growth for China/ Still want to raise GST?

Official figures show that the world’s second largest economy expanded by 6.1% in 2019 from the year before – the worst figure in 29 years. China has faced weak domestic demand and the impact of a trade war with the US.

But things could get worse for China and the world.

China’s GDP could only grow at 4%.

State Grid, China’s largest utility company, is bracing itself for the rate of economic growth to fall to as low as 4% the next five years in the world’s second-largest economy. If anybody has the finger on the economy’s pulse, it is the largest utility company that supplies the power needed to power industry and homes.

If this comes about, bad for world trade and really bad for us: S’pore: the canary in the coalmine

Still want to raise GST, PAP govt with so much uncertainty? But die die must want to be one-arm swordsman: PAP is like one armed swordsman.

The PAP govt should do itself and us a favour, don’t raise GST until there’s more clarity on global economic growth: How PAP can win 65% plus of the vote.

Kee Chiu, Chee trying to fix Heng? Incompetent? Honest mistake?

Usually what gets anti-PAP ang moh tua kees and cybernuts into orgasms of frenzy are ignored by hard working S’poreans. But Bayee’s Pritam’s question in parly and Kee Chiu and his sidekick’s response* has had hard working S’poreans upset.

The following piece that appeared in TRE reflects very accurately what PMETs are saying around their office water coolers and pantries, blue-collar workers are saying in their factoty canteens, and S’poreans in general are saying around their dining tables, and in food courts and kopi tiams.

We can get you the numbers, but you don’t need to know

I refer to this article on Today.

Basically, in Parliament on 6th January, the PAP declared that Singaporeans are getting more jobs, 60,000 local employment. Mr Pritam Singh requested for the specific number in terms of PRs and Singaporeans.

However, Mr Chan Chun Sing vehemently refused to answer that question.
1) Mr Chan deflected the question, and instead questioned Mr Singh’s need for accurate, factual data.
2) Mr Chan made a one-sided universal declaration that ALL Singaporeans are getting good jobs, and ALL Singaporeans are getting increased wages. And he did so by not providing numbers to back his claim.
3) Mr Chan insinuated that there should be no divide between Singaporeans and PRs. He might as well just say out loud there is no difference between a Singaporean and a PR.

My thoughts:
I think it is fairly disturbing that ministers and MPs can evade answering actual questions, and taichi their way out of it. We’re asking for factual numbers and figures! Not a grandfather story! Just answer the goddamned question!

Secondly, we are just supposed to just believe what Mr Chan says at face value, without any evidence? If you are so confident of what you say, you wouldn’t mind showing us the numbers, right?

As Singaporeans, we have the right to accurate and factual information. We cannot allow ourselves to be denied of the truth, just because some politician thinks it is not beneficial for us to know!

We have a right to demand full disclosure of such reports.

Angry Citizen

Given that the PAP is struggling to get 65% of the vote (Ground is not sweet for an early 2020 GE) one can reasonably wonder if Kee Chiu and Chee are trying to sabo Heng, the PM in waiting?

But maybe the MTI ministers are juz incompetent? Or are are making an honest mistake?

What do you think?

Whatever, they should realise that S’poreans (not juz the really hard core 30%ers) are suspicious of the PAP govt’s FT policies: see point 17 in table in Not Fake News: S’poreans still very satisfied with PAP govt.

Why 65% of the popular vote is so impt to the PAP: the pass mark for bragging rights that they have the people’s mandate.

---

*Senior Minister of State for Trade and Industry Chee Hong Tat (Kee Chiu’s side kick in MTI) saka his boss on 8 Jan in a Facebook post to caution against “driving a wedge in society” by differentiating between PRs and citizens, warning that all attempts to drive a wedge between different groups in society should be rejected, calling for people to “stand resolute” against efforts to “stir fear and hatred for political gain”.

POFMA these ministers?

In a liberal, Sino-Asian democracy (I’m thinking of Taiwan or South Korea) that has passed a POFMA-type law administered by a neutral, quasi-judicial entity would the following ministers be sanctioned for falsifying facts?

Ong Ye Kung

A one-party system may give Singapore its best shot at success, because it is a small country that needs to stay nimble, said Education Minister (Higher Education and Skills) Ong Ye Kung yesterday at the Institute of Policy Studies’ annual Singapore Perspectives conference.

Constructive, nation-building ST in 2017

Really? We have become so nimble that it’ll take until November for MoE to decide whether some students will get their PSLE slips even if their parents are too cheap or destitute to pay the children’s school fees.

Kee Chiu for saying

Have economic growth and job creation benefited Singaporeans? And more importantly … have economic growth and job creation benefited Singaporeans more than foreigners. Mr Deputy Speaker Sir, the short answer to both questions is a resounding yes.

Read more at https://www.todayonline.com/commentary/singapores-economic-growth-and-job-creation-have-benefited-citizens-more-foreigners

Really? I’ve heard hard core PAP supporters grumble about FTs stealing their kopi se.

He then scores an own goal asking Pritam Singh what’s the point behind his employment query. Pritam Singh says he wants to counter falsehoods. Ouch: that must hurt.

Pritam wants more clarity on government employment statistics under the various Industry Transformation Maps (ITMs), to show how many jobs are filled by Singaporeans, Permanent Residents (PRs) and foreigners, saying this would help S’poreans track government policies to determine whether they are working to boost employment and improve career prospects, as well as counter falsehoods about such statistics.

He said that the WP would continue to file questions in Parliament to obtain such data.

The Propaganda Information Minister for saying

It is just a convergence or coincidence, possibly an unfortunate one, that the first four correction directions issued under Singapore’s ‘fake news’ law were directed at opposition parties or people affiliated with political parties, Communications and Information Minister S Iswaran said.

Read more at https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/unfortunate-coincidence-first-four-pofma-actions-directed-opposition-politicians

I’ve heard PAP IB members laughing at this comment. As TOC said, it’s the PAP govt who decides when to issue such orders.

What do you think? Should these ministers kanna POFMA?

Before you answer, read: Fake news law: Ownself judge where I wrote:

 “In the proposed fake news law, ministers are judge and jury.”

and

My main concern is that it makes ministers the initial (and in most cases the final and only) arbiters of truth about claims regarding the PAP government’s performance: “Ownself judge ownself”.

And

No, not fake news that deserves to kanna PORMA, but from the PAP’s very own minister for Malay affairs, a few weeks ago

Malay-Muslim community to be consulted on more issues that concern them: Masagos

Malay community not consulted enough about their concerns

And

Electricity tariff to rise 3.5% in January-March to hit 5-year high

Why MSM no kanna POFMA for spreading fake news?

You might also want to read:

“Black is white, white is black”: Our UK ambassador defends POFMA

Fact v opinion & “Lies, damned lies, and statistics”

Why PAP never admits to mistakes?

Fake news is in the eyes of the beholder

The one-party state and fake news

Why I no ak the Select Committee hearings on Deliberate Online Falsehoods 

In a liberal, Sino-Asian democracy (I’m thinking of Taiwan or South Korea) that has passed a POFMA-type law administered by a neutral, quasi-judicial entity, Ong sure kanna POFMA, while the odds are even stevens that the other two will be POFMA.

But in a de facto one-party state, “Ownself check ownself” prevails: will suckling pigs, chickens and ducks vote for Chinese New Year or lambs, sheep and goats vote for Eid? What do you really think?

Ground is not sweet for an early 2020 GE

The advance estimate for GDP growth in 2019 is 0.7%. In general, economists are guessing that 2020 GDP growth will be around 1.4% based on the world economy doing slightly better than last year. True 1.4% is double  last yr’s figure, but its a guess and its from a low base and the effects will only be felt in late 2020 or 2021 (early next yr is the latest for GE), if the guess is accurate. And it presupposes that there’s no serious conflict in the Gulf that will disrupt oil supplies and that Trump and Xi cool their trade war.

 Analysts expect a “tepid recovery” for the Singapore economy in 2020, after advance GDP estimates released Thursday pointed to the worst growth performance for the city state since the global financial crisis in 2009.

… analysts say growth momentum is expected to pick up gradually in the coming quarters.“Despite the lacklustre growth performance, the economy is slowly getting out of the woods,” says Irvin Seah, a senior economist at DBS Group Research in a flash note [last week]

… forecasts that Singapore will register GDP growth of 1.4% in 2020, but notes that this is still below its “potential growth rate” of around 2.5%.“Signs of a turnaround are emerging, but recovery could be weak,” Seah says. “

Meanwhile at Oxford Economics,

economist Sung Eun Jung agrees that while the external outlook has improved, the risk of relations between US and China deteriorating again “remains substantial”.

“On the domestic front, labour market conditions are softening as firms are more cautious about hiring and unemployment rate has been rising steadily since last year,” Sung adds.

Like DBS, Oxford Economics is also maintaining a forecast of 1.4% GDP growth for Singapore in 2020 following the release of the advance estimates.“We still forecast a fiscal expansion in 2020, including some targeted measures to help offset the planned GST (goods and services tax) hike and support ailing industries,” Sung says.

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capital/singapore-economy/analysts-look-forward-better-year-ahead-singapores-2019-gdp-sinks-slowest

The size of the victory in the coming GE (expected shortly after the Feb Budget ) will therefore depend on the Budget goodies (Why no GE in Dec 2019) and how cock the Oppo are (Is there really a better alternative to PAP 4G).

Reminder 1: Heng’s 4G team needs 65% of the popular vote: the pass mark for bragging rights that they have the people’s mandate.

Reminder 2: Not Fake News: S’poreans still very satisfied with PAP govt

Cybernuts’ predicting GE results/ Sad (Hard) truths for 30%ers

Can’t stop laughing at these predictions. The only marginal seat in S’pore is Aljunied GRC. Other than Forthress Hougang, the rest of S’pore has huge PAP majorities.

Conu eat shit:

My prediction is that PAP will suffer heavy losses.
LHL,Grace Foo,Chichen Hen ,Josephine Ho and minister for health mr gan will all loose their seats.All by narrow margins. SDP,PV and SPP will all enter parliament.THIS WILL SURELY HAPPEN as the sun rises every morning.
I sure wish to see the look on LHL face after he is kicked out of parliament.

This was in response to

My prediction for GE2020

1) Aljunied GRC: WP to hold Aljunied GRC with 52%-53% of votes

– PAP will not invest their manpower resource on Aljunied as PAP’s priority is to put heavyweight’s resources safeguarding East Coast GRC. Likely, it would be Victor Lye, Chua Eng Leong and three other candidates.
– SG50 and LKY’s sentiments had faded. PAP’s propaganda had been stirring AHTC till people feel sick about it and noted that PAP’s agenda of stirring AHTC is to bully WP.
– WP had improved on their Town Council’s management.
– WP will heavily emphasis that “If you don’t vote for us, there is only zero to one elected Opposition MP in Parliament”.

2) East Coast GRC

– LTK is the key to win East Coast GRC, together with Nicole Seah, Leon Perera and one new blood.
– PAP has not much heavyweight Minister left. Stroke Heng would still be Tampines GRC’s anchor Minister, Fish Tank Ong would be Sembawang GRC’s anchor and Kee Chiu would be Tanjong Pagar GRC’s anchor. Hence, PAP may send Grace Fu, Josephine Teo, Edwin Tong or Indranee Rajah to replace Lim Swee Say. PAP may keep Tharman to attack Tan Cheng Bock.

3) Fengshan SMC

– WP have 50/50 chances of winning it from incumbent MP Cheryl Chan.

4) West Coast GRC

– The chances of PSP win West Coast GRC are 40-42% (without Lee Hsien Yang) or 50% to 53% (with Lee Hsien Yang).

*Comment first appeared on HWZ.

What’s interesting is that none of these hard core cybernuts are predicting a victory for the Spastics League.

They not that dumb?

The sad truth for the 30%ers

Not Fake News: S’poreans still very satisfied with PAP govt

Is there really a better alternative to PAP 4G?

Malay community not consulted enough about their concerns

No, not fake news that deserves to kanna PORMA, but from the PAP’s very own minister for Malay affairs, a few weeks ago

Malay-Muslim community to be consulted on more issues that concern them: Masagos

Malay-Muslims will get more say in Singapore’s policy-making, in line with the Government’s overall strategy for the future, said Mr Masagos Zulkifli in a media interview pertaining to issues to do with the community on Tuesday (Dec 17).

Ciptasama@M3, or Co-creation@M3, is the name of a new programme to encourage the community to participate in policy-making. It will be launched next year, led by Minister of State for Manpower and National Development Zaqy Mohamad.

https://atans1.wordpress.com/wp-admin/post.php?post=49472&action=edit

OK, OK, he didn’t actually say that “Malay community not consulted enough about their concerns”: its shumething his comments and the constructive, nation-building headline imply. But then in the recent POFMA orders, the word “implied” appeared in the orders against Brad Bowels and Lim Tean. Brad Bowyers

said the authorities had read the four points of his post “wrongly and then said my post ‘implied’ this and ‘implied’ that and so demanded it to be labelled as false”.

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3043034/singapores-fake-news-law-protecting-truth-or-restricting-free

So if PAP govt, can say facts can be implied, so can I: can’t I?

All things “Malay”

Watain fans: Muslims cannot be, but can Malays be?

Anti-PAP Malay that ungrateful meh?

Fake news law: Malays not stupid

The silence of the Malay Minister

NLB is very sensitive about Malays and Muslims

Legendary Malay hero was really Indian/ Blame Mendaki, not PAP

Why PAP thinks we need a Malay president?

Finally, “Malay” race: no such race

If you are wondering how this piece is relevant, think the row between MoM and SDP  Actually I was reminded of what minister said by MoM’s snarky response to the SDP. Look it up.

(Last paragraph added minutes after publication.)

Not Fake News: S’poreans still very satisfied with PAP govt

Further to Mad Dog, Lim Tean and other cybernuts are peddling fake news, BlackBox’s latest (December) Government Satisfaction Index fell 1 point to 79. The change over the last 12 months also fell 1 point. Looks like S’poreans are really satisfied despite what  Mad Dog, Lim Tean, Meng Seng, and TOC’s M’sian Indian goons (Terry and his “bunch of Indians”) and other cybernuts are saying: that S’poreans are so unhappy that the PAP govt will be overthrown by the Spastics League?

Vote wisely.

Why no GE in Dec 2019

The u/m news from the constructive, nation-building CNA reminded me of what Secret Squirrel told me on Christmas Day.

Singapore’s monthly manufacturing output decreased in November after seeing an uptick in the previous months, data from the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB) showed on Thursday (Dec 26).

Manufacturing output fell 9.3 per cent in November on a year-on-year basis. On a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis, production went down 9.4 per cent.

The largest decrease in November was in the electronics cluster, which fell 20.9 per cent. The entire cluster saw a decline in output, except for infocomms and consumer electronics, which grew 29.8 per cent, and data storage segments, which grew 23.1 per cent.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore-manufacturing-output-november-edb-12212126

Secret Squirrel told me that the reason GE would be delayed until after the the Budget is that the ground is not sweet for a PAP victory of 65%+, without a lot more bribes goodies, using our own money. Reminder: Heng’s 4G team needs 65% of the popular vote: the pass mark for bragging rights that they have the people’s mandate.

---

Problems for the PAP govt

Economy: “Only cold spell coming, but not Winter”and S’pore: the canary in the coalmine/ Is the ground sweet for the PAP? But to be fair to the PAP: IMF affirms support for PAP policies.

The headwinds other than a lousy economy going into a GE:

— Double confirm, ground not sweet for PAP

— Another reason why ground is not sweet for the PAP.

— Why one-party rule sucks for Xi, Lee and Heng

—————————————

A GE late this year as expected by me in 2018 (Akan datang: GE in late 2019) even with vote losers like pending GST rises etc (PAP is like one armed swordsman) would have resulted in a PAP victory of around 62% (How the PAP can get 62% is explained in PAP fighting for every last vote).

But 65%? No way without more dropping GST rise ( How PAP can win 65% plus of the vote) or more goodies. Well a GST rise is set in stone, so got to have more bribes goodies, all with our own money.

Btw, how a really dumb TRE cybernut die die insists that TRE not wrong when I wrote: TeamTRE doesn’t know when school holidays begin?/ How Wankers can hold Aljunied

ganeshsk:

October 15, 2019 at 5:33 pm

Well CI technically possible.

Tis school technically closes on 14th October 2 days prior to official date and it is pTM and prize giving for class toppers.

So the nomination the campaign period 10 days might just take place from 9 th of November. and we can election on 17th November.

So I didn’t think TRE got it wrong.

Now a days the void decks are being used more than the school but I am sure the scheduled MOE volunteers will be excused early to attend to election formalities if need be.

 

“Black is white, white is black”: Our UK ambassador defends POFMA

Regular regulars will know that I’m no fan of POFMA (Fake news is in the eyes of the beholder) even though Alex Tan, Brad Bowels and Lim Tean deserve to kanna POFMAed (The last two talk so much cock that even if the authorities wrongly POFMa them, the courts can still find that they deserve to kannna POFMAed for other BS). As to the SDP’s POFMA, if it kanna POFMA, so should the constructive, nation-building ST.

So I had a great laugh when this appeared in the Economist’s letters section: note the implied argument that POFMA is nothing more than “right of reply”. If so why not make “Right of reply” law apply to social media etc, not juz the media? Someone talking cock, me thimks.

Free speech in Singapore

Contrary to your report (“False alarm”, December 7th), our Protection from Online Falsehoods and Manipulation Act should be looked at in the same context as our belief in the right of reply, which in our view enhances rather than reduces the quality of public discourse, and strengthens and safeguards proper public accountability that must necessarily underpin democracies. Online posts that have been corrected remain available in full, but with links to the government’s response appended. Readers can see both and decide for themselves which is the truth. How does twinning factual replies to falsehoods limit free speech?

You also misrepresented the falsehoods that the government corrected. One post not only accused the government of rigging elections and conspiring to convert Singapore into a Christian theocracy, but also made false claims that it had arrested specific critics. Another did not only question the “investment nous of Singapore’s sovereign-wealth funds”, but based this on false allegations of losses that never occurred. The Economist itself recognises how serious a problem online falsehoods are, for example in “Anglichanka strikes again” (April 21st 2018). Fake stories have influenced British politics, notably in the Brexit campaign. Legislatures around the world have been grappling with this problem.

Singapore, a small English-speaking, multiracial, multi-religious city-state open to the world, is more vulnerable than most to this threat. Having observed in Britain and elsewhere the cost of doing nothing, we decided to act. Singapore’s laws are designed to meet our own context and needs. We have no ambition to set any example for other countries, but neither do we make any apologies for defending our own interests.

Foo Chi Hsia
High commissioner for Singapore
London

Ah well, having to write letters like this is the price of a cushy life funded by us tax payers.

The letter reminds me of Race is BS or “post-truth” at work?

“They wanted facts. Facts! They demanded facts from him, as if facts could explain anything.”
―from LORD JIM (1900) by Joseph Conrad

Ms Foo’s other attempts at comedy and post-truths:

Christmas laughs from our comic lady in London

What next? Senior civil servant saying that those who don’t vote PAP don’t wish S’pore well?

Ang mohs told secret of why PAP wins and wins

Our London ambassador on why Reformasi here is for the deluded

PAP govt speaking? No ler North Korean minister

Economist piece on Amos etc: Dark Side cousin responds

Somehow I’m reminded of

Song of the Witches from Macbeth

Double, double toil and trouble;

Fire burn and caldron bubble.

Fillet of a fenny snake,

In the caldron boil and bake;

Eye of newt and toe of frog,

Wool of bat and tongue of dog,

Adder’s fork and blind-worm’s sting,

Lizard’s leg and howlet’s wing,

For a charm of powerful trouble,

Like a hell-broth boil and bubble.

Double, double toil and trouble;

Fire burn and caldron bubble.

Cool it with a baboon’s blood,

Then the charm is firm and good.