The World at the Last Glacial Maximum — 20,000 Years Ago
This map reveals what Earth looked like around 20,000 years ago, during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) — a time when global temperatures were colder and sea levels were more than 110 meters lower than today. Vast areas now underwater were exposed as land, reshaping continents and migration pathways.
The map highlights two major ancient landmasses:
Sunda — the merged landmass of mainland Southeast Asia, Sumatra, Java, Borneo, and nearby islands.
Sahul — the combined continent of Australia, Tasmania, and New Guinea.
These regions are outlined using the 125m depth contour, derived from high-resolution global relief data (ETOPO2), showing how dramatically coastlines shifted during the ice age.
Also shown are the major biogeographic boundaries of the region:
• Wallace Line – separating Asian and Australasian fauna
• Weber Line – marking the center of species turnover
• Lydekker Line – the eastern limit of Asian animal species
These invisible borders help explain why Australia’s wildlife evolved in isolation despite its relative closeness to Southeast Asia.
During the ice age, humans could walk across much of Sunda, but deep-water channels meant that reaching Sahul always required seafaring — making early migration into Australia one of humanity’s earliest maritime achievements.
BP has just changed it CEO, The last one lasted less than two years. The previous one lasted less than four years.
Part of the problem at BP was its belief it could running with the hares and hunting with the hounds. It thought it could do both the woke stuff (renewables) and the dirty stuff. But the margins were different. Fossil fuel projects returned great margins. Renewables’ margins were “peanuts”. The chariot kept falling into ruts as the different horses ran at different speeds.
Earlier this year, UBS denied that it wanted to give up its Swiss passport. The Swiss government had many regulatory disagreements with it. They forced a shotgun marriage with Credit Suisse a few years ago, which made it too big to fail. But too big for the Swiss state to rescue it.
STI had a great run. And my accidental AI stocks did well. Sintel and CSE which I bot in 2020/ 2021 as dividend plays became AI data centre plays in 2025. Long-time family Keppel is above $10. It’s all time high was around $13 in 2007. Since then there have spinoffs and great dividends. So don’t feel sorry for me. Blue chip TLCs are good investments if risk adverse.
Now to possible omens of the Apocalypse starting with
Apollo cuts risk and stockpiles cash in preparation for market turmoil
Recent FT headline
More to the point, Wall Street sell sides expects AI infrastructure build-out to be a key theme in 2026. Infrastructure requires financing.
So this is worrying news:
Tech groups shift $120bn of AI data centre debt off balance sheets Creative financing helps insulate Big Tech while binding Wall Street to a future boom or bust
US tech stocks slide as Oracle data centre setback reignites AI concerns
Oracle’s $10bn Michigan data centre in limbo after Blue Owl funding talks stall
FT headlines. The first was on 24 December 2025 the others are from earlier this month.
Here I’ll report on what Reuters reports about the other neo-clouds and the developers they use. And why problems will emerge. The issue is the extent of the damage on the financial system.
New suppliers like CoreWeave and Nebius often referred to as neo-clouds, are the middlemen of the AI gold rush. They lease data centres, fill them with GPU-heavy clusters, and then rent out the processing capacity to customers ranging from large technology groups to venture-backed AI startups.
The neo-clouds’ rise has helped to quickly scale up the supply of computing.
But it has also concentrated credit risk around the developers that build the data centres. These companies tend to borrow heavily to finance construction, now backed by long-dated leases from neo-cloud tenants.
The financing mechanics leave little margin for error. Developers pay for the construction costs with a mix of common equity and substantial amounts of debt from banks and private-credit lenders. Infrastructure investors often provide preferred equity or mezzanine capital above common equity, earning fixed returns. The residual risk sits with the developer and, ultimately, its creditors.
And as usual banks are lending like it’s Christmas come early.
Emphasis Mine
“Itdoes appear there is now real market fatigue in this singular AI infrastructure story, and the circularity issue in revenue, the rationalization of capex, and the fact that not all players can win at once, are seemingly becoming more accepted by markets,” said David Bahnsen, chief investment officer at the Bahnsen Group.
Tech groups shift $120bn of AI data centre debt off balance sheets Creative financing helps insulate Big Tech while binding Wall Street to a future boom or bust
[T]he projects backed directly by cloud computing giants, also known as hyperscalers. Facilities leased to Microsoft or Amazon benefit from those companies’ robust balance sheets and diversified revenue streams, allowing them to access cheaper financing, although a recent rush of borrowing by peers from Google owner Alphabet to Meta Platforms is testing bondholders’ appetite. When the tenant is a less financially robust intermediary, however, developers have to pay more for debt.
Reuters
And let’s remember banks are needed to create off balance sheet vehicles. These vehicles ultimately are back-stopped by bank loans.
For 2026 remember “Whatever needs to happen will eventually happen.”.
May Fortunas be with you as you dice or play cards in the Casino.
American stocks were tua kee in 2024. Their prices rose by 26% in 2023 and 23% in 2024. This increase is compared with 14% and 2%, respectively, for shares listed in other developed markets. This year has snapped that winning streak despite America’s position at the heart of the AI boom.
A weaker dollar explains some of the shift, though not all of it.
(Above added on 26 December at 5.20 am)
Shares listed in emerging markets have outperformed those in developed markets. This is the first time in years this has happened. MSCI’s indices for each have risen by 27% and 19%, respectively. South Korea’s KOPSI index has soared by nearly 70%. America’s stockmarket may attract the most attention, but this year the real action has been elsewhere.
Europe’s bourses have shone, boosted by Germany’s plans to stimulate its economy and by rising defence spending across the continent. And within Europe another reversal has taken place: the stockmarkets in former “peripheral” countries have outpaced those of the “core”. Standout performers in 2025 include Greece, Italy, Spain and Poland. Once-troubled banks have done especially well.
Economist
Interest rates fell; bond yields not so much
For the most part 2025 has been a year of increasingly doveish monetary policy among the world’s major central banks. America’s Federal Reserve has cut interest rates three times, by 0.25 percentage points each time, as has the Bank of England. The European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada have each opted for four cuts. The outlier has been the Bank of Japan, which raised short-term borrowing costs twice—albeit from the ultra-low starting point of 0.25%.
Yet it is longer-term bond yields that determine the borrowing costs for much mortgage, government and corporate debt, and these have fallen by far less, or risen outright. Yields on ten-year American Treasuries are down by only 0.4 percentage points, and those on British “gilts” by less than 0.1. Germany’s ten-year borrowing cost, at 2.9%, is 0.5 percentage points higher than at the start of 2025. Japan’s has risen to 2%, its highest level since 1999.
Some have begun to call this the “debasement trade”. They fear that central bankers are cutting rates too soon and that governments are borrowing unsustainably. Both raise the risk that inflation will surge again, eroding the real value of currencies and sovereign debt. Bondholders are therefore demanding higher long-term yields as compensation. If consumer price increases accelerate next year, expect the debasement trade to be all the rage.
Economist
Despite all the macro noise, the 30-year yield is around 4.8%, pretty much where it started the year.
A yield of 5% for what is, despite all the macro noise, still considered one of the safest and most liquid long-dated assets in the world, is clearly attractive to many investors. Demand from “real money” buyers such as pension funds, mutual funds and insurance companies, who need to match their long-term liabilities with long-term assets, has been consistently strong.
Reuters
Bitcoin is not digital gold
Since the start of 2025 the price of gold has risen by over 60%. Bitcoin, by contrast, is down by 7%, and suffered a peak-to-trough plunge of over 30% in October and November. Rather than looking for digital alternatives to the yellow metal, investors have turned to more traditional substitutes. Silver has done even better than gold (see chart 3), more than doubling in value this year.
Until recently, bitcoin might have been touted as another debasement trade. The cryptocurrency has a capped supply and is beyond the reach of central bankers, so it cannot be devalued as “fiat” currencies can. Those features spurred hopes that bitcoin might become digital gold, offering a hedge against inflation and government profligacy.
If bitcoin is not digital gold, what is it? It is often described as a proxy for global risk appetite or investors’ techno-optimism. Indeed, bitcoin’s sharp drop late in the year coincided with falls in Nvidia’s share price and those of tech firms more broadly. Over the course of the year, however, these stocks have far outperformed the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin’s faithful adherents may need a more convincing story if they are not to lose even more.
Economist
For 2026 remember “Whatever needs to happen will eventually happen.”
COREWEAVE The AI cloud firm’s Nasdaq debut was muted in March. The stock has jumped 78%. This increase occurred despite opening nearly 3% below its offer price. The Nvidia -backed company raised about $1.5 billion in its IPO for a valuation of about $23 billion on a fully diluted basis.
No dog this.
Unlike
FIGURE The blockchain lender’s shares started trading 44% above their offer price in September, and have gained 7.5% since then.
STUBHUB
The ticket reseller debuted at 8% above its IPO price in September. However, it erased all gains and closed the day lower. Since then, shares have fallen 40%.
FERMI The data-center real estate investment trust, co-founded by former U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry, began trading in October 19% above the IPO price but has lost 61% since then.
But first: Let’s wish Warren Buffett well. He will soon retire as chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway. He has led the company for six decades. At 95, the Oracle of Omaha will stay on as chairman. The CEO will be Greg Abel in January.
Berkshire’s stock has risen by 6,000,000% since 1965, outperforming the S&P 500, which is up by 46,000% over that period.
But he has had some dogs with fleas along the way. Kraft Heinz is the latest.
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway partnered with 3G Capital to buy Heinz in 2013. They then merged it with Kraft in 2015 to create a US$40 billion food giant. The goal was to achieve steady consumer staples. However, the investment struggled with declining sales, increased competition, and cost-cutting issues. This led to major write-downs and shareholder disappointment. Recent plans for a company split have made it a rare, underperforming bet for Buffett.
Because they had a great 2025, seems to be the reasoning of the “experts”.
(Above added on 26 December at 5.20 am)
Contrarians i.e. bears are extinct.
HSBC’s emerging market sentiment survey published in December found bearish views on emerging markets prospects had entirely disappeared, with record net sentiment at the joint highest in the history of the survey.
Reuters
Surely the exuberant optimism should be making analysts think again?
David Hauner, head of global emerging markets fixed income strategy at BofA Global Research, said he had not encountered a single client that was negative on emerging markets despite speaking to more than 100 in recent weeks.
“Everybody is constructive, so this could be a negative signal,” said Hauner, adding: “History suggests that you have to be cautious when everybody agrees on the direction of the market.”
Because the guesses in 2024 about 2025 were right. LOL.
LOOKING BACK
Trump’s big-bang “Liberation Day” tariffs in April led to the biggest fall in stockmarkets for the year. The S&P 500 tumbled by 4.9% in a day (and a further 6% on the following day) and the NASDAQ by 6%. Many tariffs were eventually lowered or postponed, leading stockmarkets to bounce back. Overall, they had another good year.
It was a year of two halves in world markets in 2025: a tariff‑shocked first half and a relief‑rally second, yet the initial instincts of global investors 12 months ago proved mostly right. That may make some wonder how actively they should trade at all.
So if the consensus can be mostly correct – and not a contrarian indicator as often suggested – maybe we should take more notice of this year’s year-end positions.
LOOKING AHEAD
More from Reuters:
Despite more intense hand-wringing about artificial intelligence stocks and jarring politics, this month’s survey looks mighty familiar.
BofA analysts say it’s the most bullish reading in 3-1/2 years, with macro optimism the highest in four years on a “run-it-hot” belief in government policies. Cash levels are at a record low 3.3% – often seen as a sell signal – and a net 38% of funds expect long-term rates to be higher next year, the most in more than three years.
BUT this could upend the guesses
Long-term G7 bond yields climbed everywhere despite central bank easing,
U.S. stocks climbed on Friday, as a rebound in technology shares heading into the final weeks of the year offset tumbling consumer stocks such as Nike. Indexes up: S&P 0.89%, Nasdaq 1.17%, Dow 0.57%
US tech stocks slide as Oracle data centre setback reignites AI concerns 2 hours ago Oracle’s $10bn Michigan data centre in limbo after Blue Owl funding talks stall
FT;s headlines
Wall Street’s main indexes closed lower on Wednesday. The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped to three-week lows. Nagging worries about the AI trade weighed on technology stocks.
The S&P 500 lost 78.52 points, or 1.15%, to end at 6,722.22 points, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 415.97 points, or 1.80%, to 22,695.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 225.85 points, or 0.47%, to 47,888.41.
US 10 Year Treasury Yield was marginally up at 4.151%
—————————————————————–
On 15 December, the Treasury yield curve steepened. It reached its widest in four years on both the 2-10 year and 2-30 year segments. The former surpassed the peaks of April when the initial tariff shock briefly sent Treasuries into a tailspin.
Who is going to lead the Fed is one factor in creeping premia.
Few words on the markets first. Wall Street’s main indexes pared some losses on Tuesday afternoon. The Nasdaq closed up. The S&P 500 and the Dow closed lower due to declines in healthcare and energy stocks. Investors evaluated delayed economic data to gauge the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook for next year. the S&P 500 lost 16.42 points, or 0.24%, to end at 6,800.09 points, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 54.05 points, or 0.23%, to 23,111.46. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 302.67 points, or 0.63%, to 48,113.89.
YIELD CURVES’ STEEP CLIMB
30-YEAR BOND YIELDS’ RAPID RISE
Yields on long-dated bonds around the world are popping higher. The 30-year U.S. yield last week reached 4.8670%, its highest since early September, as it broke convincingly above the 2025 average of 4.77%. Long bonds now have to contend with the prospect of having both a White House seeking to run the economy hot with loose fiscal policy and a dovish-leaning Fed.
Rising long-term yields are not just a U.S. phenomenon. Japan, Britain and Australia have been in the spotlight recently too, with the 30-year German yield last week leaping to its highest point since 2011.
After a super 2025, investors expect shares in European banks to keep heading higher in 2026. This is supported by strong earnings. Crucially, cost savings stemming from artificial intelligence also play a role.
Banks have started to use AI to improve operational efficiency and fraud detection, as well as to reduce staff costs.
Even big investors believe this spiel,
“European banks could be a real beneficiary of AI,” said Helen Jewell, chief investment officer for fundamental equities at BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, with about $12 trillion under management.
Wall Street closed lower on Monday. Investors are waiting for a lot economic data later this week. They are also assessing reports on Federal Reserve candidates. And listening to commentary from policymakers. These activities will hopefully give clues on the interest rate outlook.
The S&P 500 lost 9.95 points, or 0.15%, to end at 6,816.34 points, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 135.14 points, or 0.58%, to 23,060.03. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 41.43 points, or 0.09%, to 48,416.62.
Oracle said cash flow from operations during the quarter was $2.1 billion, while capital expenditure was $12 billion. Oracle raised its estimate for capital expenditure in its fiscal year ending in May from $35 billion to $50 billion.
Oracle’s latest earnings disappointed investors. The software company’s outlook of revenue and profit for the current quarter came in below analysts’ estimates. Additionally, it raised the amount it is spending on data centres by US$15bn. That stirred up market concerns again about the vast sums being splashed out on AI.
American stockmarkets fell on Friday amid fresh fears of a potential artificial-intelligence bubble. The tech-heavy Nasdaq closed down by 1.7% and the S&P 500 dropped by 1.1%. Shares in Broadcom fell by more than 11%. The company reported strong earnings. The outlook was weaker than investors had been hoping for. Broadcom is an AI plAY.
What Oracle and Broadcom tell us about AI stocks
Investors have become more picky about AI plays. Some said that there is now less willingness to indiscriminately reward spending on AI: think Oracle.’
Broadcom shares fell more than 11% on Friday. This happened a day after the chipmaker warned that growing sales of lower-margin custom AI processors were squeezing profitability. This sparked worries that the business may be less lucrative.
Whistling in the dark? Or the conventional wisdom?
Two leading U.S. fund managers, who requested anonymity from Reuters, said worries about a bubble are exaggerated. They said Big Tech “hyperscalers” were still struggling to meet unrelenting demand for more data centers.
“Across our basket of 61 AI-related stocks, we don’t yet see positioning that looks like investors aggressively betting on an AI bubble bursting,” said Peter Hillerberg, cofounder at data and analytics company Ortex Technologies.
Reuters
We shall see if this conventional view is correct. or the many doomsters are right.
Mr Trump said he would allow Nvidia to sell its H200 chip in China. The American government must receive a 25% cut of the proceeds. He didn’t say how this would work. The H200 is not as advanced as Nvidia’s more recent Blackwell or forthcoming Rubin chips. Despite Mr Trump’s loosening of export controls, China’s government is reportedly discussing ways to limit Chinese firms’ reliance on Nvidia. It wants to boost its domestic semiconductor industry instead.
Nvidia considers increasing H200 chip output due to robust China demand, sources say
Reuters headline
Any wonder?
Meanwhile, Wall Street slid. Fears of AI bubble and inflation keep investors away. Dow 0.51%, S&P 500 1.11%, Nasdaq 1.63%. S&P 500, Nasdaq at more than two-week lows. Shares in Broadcom, a chipmaker, fell by more than 11%. It reported strong earnings. But, its outlook was weaker than investors were hoping to see.
The S&P 500 and the Dow boasted record closing highs on Thursday. Investors favored financial stocks after a Federal Reserve policy update. The update was less hawkish than expected. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite underperformed. Oracle’s financial update made investors wary of artificial intelligence bets.
The S&P 500 gained 14.34 points, or 0.21%, to end at 6,902.19 points, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 60.30 points, or 0.25%, to 23,597.26. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 651.37 points, or 1.36%, to 48,709.12.
AND Silver is the winner.
Funny my O&M spec play is flying despite weak oil prices.
Update on 11 December 2025: Oracle forecasts miss Wall Street targets while spending rises, shares tumble 10%. Oracle said that adjusted profit for the current fiscal third quarter would be US$1.64 to US$1.68 per share, below analyst estimates of US$1.72 per share, according to LSEG data. Oracle’s third-quarter revenue growth forecast of between 16% and 18% also missed analyst estimates of 19.4% growth to US$16. Oracle’s third-quarter revenue growth forecast of between 16% and 18% also missed analyst estimates of 19.4% growth to US$16. Its entire forecast range of cloud sales growth missed LSEG estimates of $8.87 billion.
Capital expenditures for fiscal 2026 are now expected to be US$15bn higher. This is more than the US$35 bn the company estimated in September during its first-quarter earnings call.
AND
Major stock indexes jumped while U.S. Treasury yields declined on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected. Investors remained hopeful about further cuts ahead. However, the central bank signaled it will likely pause reductions for now.
The U.S. dollar was lower against major currencies.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 497.46 points, or 1.05%, to 48,057.75, the S&P 500 (.SPX) rose 46.17 points, or 0.67%, to 6,886.68 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 77.67 points, or 0.33%, to 23,654.16
==============================================
Why this happened:
Oracle is a more curious outlier, at 27 times next year’s earnings. The company run by Larry Ellison is almost Apple’s mirror image. It is investing so heavily in AI data centers that the company’s free cash flow will be negative for years, according to Visible Alpha data. That makes its relatively healthy valuation a puzzle. One solution is that Oracle’s earnings, if not its cash flows, are rising fast, making the 2026 multiple seem deceptively high. Using 2028 valuation multiples instead, Ellison’s group trades below Nvidia and Meta.
Larry Ellison, the 81-year-old founder of Oracle, a technology giant, has had a busy year. As well as being part of a group hoping to buy TikTok’s American operations, he is helping to fund an attempt by his son’s Hollywood studio, Paramount Skydance, to buy Warner Bros Discovery, a bigger rival. Investors will hope he hasn’t taken his all-seeing eye off Oracle, which reports results for the three months to November on Wednesday. The cloud-computing company has benefited from the artificial-intelligence boom. Revenue at its cloud-infrastructure division grew by 55% year on year in the previous quarter, to $3.4bn. In September Oracle forecast annual cloud revenue of $144bn by 2030—that briefly lifted its valuation to $935bn.
It has since fallen by nearly a third. Investors are uneasy about colossal spending on data centres. Oracle’s net debt has more than doubled over four years, to $80bn. And they worry about the reliability of cloud revenue from customers such as OpenAI, which is burning through cash itself.
After soaring earlier this year with the election of crypto-friendly U.S. President Donald Trump, cryptocurrencies – along with stocks – plummeted in April on his tariff announcements, but quickly rebounded. Bitcoin went on to hit an all-time peak above $126,000 in early October. But just days later, on October 10, the market plunged again when Trump announced a new tariff on Chinese imports and threatened export controls on critical software. That sparked more than $19 billion worth of liquidations across leveraged crypto market positions, the largest liquidation in crypto history.
Bitcoin has struggled to regain its footing ever since and in November experienced its biggest monthly drop since mid-2021, …
Traders as of late last week had assigned a 15% probability that bitcoin will finish the year below $80,000, compared with the 20% probability they had assigned just a few weeks ago.
That’s still a blow for crypto bulls, including Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the world’s biggest bitcoin hoarding company, which had projected as recently as October 30 that the token would hit $150,000 this year. Analysts at Standard Chartered last year forecast bitcoin would hit $200,000 by the end of 2025, due in part to flows into bitcoin exchange-traded funds.
In a change of tune, Strategy CEO Phong Le warned on a podcast last month of a possible “bitcoin winter.” In October, Standard Chartered forecast bitcoin would fall below $100,000 but said that may be the last time it will hit that low, according to media reports.
Saylor, speaking to Reuters last week, said his company could survive a 95% fall in the price of bitcoin.
Reuters
EQUITIES CORRELATION
Those April and October plunges highlighted the growing correlation between bitcoin and equities, and in particular, artificial intelligence stocks, which share similar attributes and have been hit by worries that valuations are in bubble territory.
Historically, bitcoin and stocks did not move in tandem because crypto was seen as an alternative investment. But with broader crypto adoption by traditional retail investors and some institutions, the correlation looks to be strengthening, analysts said.
Correlation is measured from -1 to 1, with figures above zero indicating a positive correlation. In 2025, the average correlation between bitcoin and the S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab – which tracks a broad basket of companies – was 0.5, compared with an average correlation in 2024 of 0.29, LSEG data shows.
For the tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 index (.NDX), opens new tab, the average correlation this year was 0.52, compared with 0.23 in 2024, according to LSEG data.
Crypto has grown especially sensitive to AI stock moves partly because they have been drivers of broader equity markets, and partly because, like crypto, they are currently seen as somewhat speculative investments, largely dependent on investor sentiment and risk appetite, analysts said.
“Crypto (was) already a little weak after October 10,” said Cosmo Jiang, a general partner at Pantera Capital, a crypto investor. “Things really started to break in risk markets in the recent weeks, because of the AI bull case coming under question.”
Reuters
RATE CUT QUESTIONS
Like stocks, cryptocurrencies also appear increasingly sensitive to the path of interest rates. Fidelity research from last year found little historical data. The data does not indicate that the price of bitcoin increases when the Federal Reserve cuts rates. However, some analysts have observed that crypto tends to rally in line with dovish signals from the central bank.
Analysts also point out that hawkish Fed signals from October onwards weighed on bitcoin. Since then, new economic data has been released. The market is now pricing an 86% chance of a 25-basis-point cut this week.
That rate decision will likely be a key driver for crypto prices in the near term. Analysts also mentioned the outlook for AI stocks as another significant factor.
“The Fed’s support of monetary supply in this scenario is significant. It will be an indicator that crypto is all looking at,” said Mo Shaikh, co-founder and general partner at Maximum Frequency Ventures.
Read the text in the screen shots, not just look at the charts.
Cont’d
Oracle is a more curious outlier, at 27 times next year’s earnings. The company run by Larry Ellison is almost Apple’s mirror image. It is investing so heavily in AI data centers that the company’s free cash flow will be negative for years, according to Visible Alpha data. That makes its relatively healthy valuation a puzzle. One solution is that Oracle’s earnings, if not its cash flows, are rising fast, making the 2026 multiple seem deceptively high. Using 2028 valuation multiples instead, Ellison’s group trades below Nvidia and Meta.
China’s trade surplus exceeded $1 trillion for the first time. Manufacturers aimed to avoid President Donald Trump’s tariffs by shipping more to non-U.S. markets in November. Exports to Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia surged. Figures on Monday showed that China’s exports grew by 5.9% in November, compared with a year earlier. Shipments to the United States dropped by close to one-third from the same month a year before.
AND
Wall Street’s main indexes closed lower on Monday. while Treasury yields gained as investors waited nervously for the Federal Reserve monetary policy update due in two days. The S&P 500 lost 22.56 points, or 0.33%, to end at 6,847.84 points, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 29.33 points, or 0.12%, to 23,549.62. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 208.31 points, or 0.45%, to 47,740.99.
Still way above Fed inflation target. And US consumers are upset with TRUMP about affordability.
U.S. stocks closed out the trading week with slight gains on Friday. Dow 0.22%, S&P 0.19%, Nasdaq 0.31%.
All three indexes recorded a second straight weekly advance.The latest flurry of economic data maintained elevated expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week.
Markets were pricing in an 87.2% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at Fed meeting.
No wonder
US stocks set for double-digit gains in 2026, say Wall Street banks Bullish forecasts come despite recent investor jitters over tech spending and potential bubble in AI sector
FT headline
Bond investors are as usual, more cautious. Yields are high enough to generate positive returns. The expectation of Fed rate cuts provides the opportunity for price appreciation. Yet, this view is tempered by deep-seated concerns over the US government’s debt trajectory and ongoing inflation pressures.
Huh? What was the person who captioned this smoking?
More like reality this. Chinese chips are in the cheap and cheerful basket.
Whatever quality of chips should improve because
The flow of Chinese students to America is dwindling. Their number has dropped by nearly 30% since 2019. Almost 20,000 Chinese scientists left America for China between 2010 and 2021. The Trump administration’s hostility towards China is partly to blame.
Economist newsletter
Oh
China’s quantum leap will eclipse US aircraft carriers, analysts say
The next great arms race won’t be won with aircraft carriers or stealth jets — instead the victor will be the first to master quantum computing.
Experts warn that “Q-Day,” the moment quantum machines can break all classical encryption, could arrive as early the next decade. When that day comes, whoever controls quantum power will hold the keys to global security, able to disrupt financial systems, military networks and critical infrastructure without firing a shot.
China is betting big, mobilizing $140 billion for “hard tech” including quantum computing, while quietly stockpiling stolen data for future decryption. The U.S. and allies are scrambling to migrate to quantum-resistant algorithms before Beijing gains an asymmetric edge.
Analysts say the winner of this race could unlock every secret — from battlefield communications to satellite links — in an instant.
Nikkei Asia
And
Overseas training
Top Chinese companies are training their artificial intelligence models overseas to access Nvidia’s chips and bypass U.S. efforts to prevent their development of the powerful technology, write the Financial Times’ Zijing Wu and Ryan McMorrow.
Alibaba and ByteDance are among the tech groups training their latest large language models in data centers across Southeast Asia. Two persons familiar with the matter stated that training in offshore locations has steadily increased. This came after the U.S. move in April to restrict sales of the H20, Nvidia’s China-only semiconductors. “It’s an obvious choice to come here,” said one Singapore-based data center operator. “You need the best chips to train the most cutting-edge models and it’s all legally compliant.” (HUH?)
One exception is DeepSeek. People familiar with the matter said it is a maker of high-quality and low-cost AI models. DeepSeek is being trained domestically.
Data center clusters have boomed in Singapore and Malaysia, fueled by Chinese demand. Many of these data centers are equipped with high-end Nvidia products, similar to those used by U.S. Big Tech groups to train LLMs.
Above is edited version of Nikkei Asia’s tech newsletter.
Market last night
Dow off 0.07%, S&P up 0.11%, Nasdaq up 0.22%: little change on Thursday. The dollar and Treasury yields rose. Yields rose after a surprisingly strong U.S. labor market indicator called into question how much lower the Fed will cut interest rates next year.
The view that the stock market is in a massive bubble is incorrect over the medium term. It is not bound to crash. So says professor and economic strategist Nouriel Roubini, also known as Dr Doom, argues this point.
For nearly two decades, esteemed economist Nouriel Roubini has worn the nickname “Dr. Doom” with honor. He earned it in the mid-2000s for warning of a housing crash that Wall Street dismissed, until he was proven catastrophically right.
Read the above article to understand his reasoning. Sampler:
“The now common view that the U.S. stock market is in a massive bubble and bound to crash is incorrect over the medium term,” he wrote. On the other hand, what he predicted isn’t necessarily the rosiest. The near-term picture looks like a “growth recession,’ he said, meaning slower, below-potential GDP. It’s not the hard landing or 1970s-style stagflation many have predicted, and it isn’t a bubble popping, but it’s a lopsided economy, as many Wall Street analysts have also noticed.
For the record, Wall Street’s benchmark S&P 500 edged higher in choppy trading on Wednesday. A set of economic data bolstered expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. But, a slide in Microsoft’s shares kept a lid on gains. Dow 0.54%, S&P 500 0.22% and Nasdaq 0.09%
Amazon is ramping up efforts to attract major AI customers to use its services. It’s cloud computing unit on Tuesday said it will adopt key Nvidia technology. This will be implemented in future generations of its artificial intelligence computing chips. It’s AI models are considered rubbish compared to others.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.39%, the S&P 500 rose 0.25% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.59%. Technology and industrial shares drove the gains, while energy and materials led losses.
Added at 9.47am on 3 December 2025
Lets see if the Brits are right
UK pension funds dump US equities on fears of AI bubble Public and private-sector funds concerned over market’s growing concentration in a small number of tech stocks
While Japan and S Korea are spending like there’s no tomorrow on weapons, China’s retrenching its arms spending.
Revenues at China’s giant military firms fell last year. Corruption purges slowed arms contracts and procurement. A study released on Monday provided this information. It was conducted by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, a leading conflict think tank.
Downturn adds to uncertainty over China’s military modernisation. How to invade Taiwan liddat?
Btw, revenues of world’s 100 largest arms firms hit record in 2024, study says. Think American.
Seems this year’s last US$1,000 rise in the price of gold has been explained by US investment bank Jefferies.
Here’s the familiar “flight to safety” narrative.
As at Nov 25th 2025, gold ws up up 56% for 2025. The narrative usually centres on concerns about fiscal dominance. High public debt and lax money are also focal points. Additionally, there is a loss of faith in once hard currencies.
It ain’t central banks or spectulators or EFTs buying.
What almost escaped notice was that another major buyer through the middle of this year was Tether, the issuer of the U.S.-dollar-pegged crypto token, or stablecoin USDT and smaller gold-backed token Tether Gold XAUt.
Investment bank Jefferies calculates gold buying from what’s now the world’s largest digital assets company exceeded official central bank purchases over two quarters through September 30, opens new tab.
By that date, Tether held 116 tonnes of gold for its customers — about $14 billion at prevailing prices. That made it the largest single holder of bullion outside the big central banks, and put it on par with smaller official hoards in countries such as South Korea, Hungary or Greece. Gold’s meteoric rise this year came in two waves. The first was a near‑$1,000 per ounce jump in just four months, peaking in April around the tariff shock and coinciding with a 10% drop in the dollar. The second, another $1,000 leap between mid‑August and mid‑October, came without any further dollar weakness.
Central banks were still the elephants in the room, with aggregate purchases of about 220 tonnes in both the second and third quarters. But the marginal buyer looks to have had an outsized impact.
… As the Jefferies team points out, the second leg of the rally lined up with a rapid pick‑up in Tether’s gold buying: some 26 tonnes in the third quarter alone, or around 2% of total gold demand and roughly 12% of known central‑bank purchases. In the second quarter, Tether accounted for about 14% of central‑bank buying.
“Tether gold demand is likely to have tightened supply in the short term and influenced sentiment, which in turn may have driven speculative flows,” the bank concluded, adding it expects more demand on that scale.
Sunda — the merged landmass of mainland Southeast Asia, Sumatra, Java, Borneo, and nearby islands.
Sahul — the combined continent of Australia, Tasmania, and New Guinea.
Also shown are the major biogeographic boundaries of the region:
Thoughts of a Cynical Investor 