Indonesia: Did u know?

In August 1945 Indonesia became the first colonised country to declare its independence after the second world war.

The year in industrial metals

Indonesia’s a big producer of nickel and tin.

Location, location, location

We are Indonesia’s offshore financial and healthcare centre.

Mighty S$

Indonesia is big

Indonesia an IPO king

And we are the regional (and a global) financial centre? But to be fair, it has done more IPOs than HK.

We are 4th in world on time spent on smartphones

Indonesians are champion talkers. Thais also talk a lot.

Surprisingly Indians and Chinese don’t talk so much.

Indians are Russia’s “Useful Idiots”

As are Indonesians, Kenyans, Nigerians and Mexicans.

Kanna con by Russian BS.

In five countries (see below) — India, Indonesia, Kenya, Nigeria and Mexico — an absolute or relative majority of respondents held positive views of Russia.

The most negative opinions about Russia were to be found in north America, Europe, Australia, Japan, South Korea and Israel (see below).

The richer a country and its people are, the less they are inclined to believe Russian BS.

People from China have not be polled. Wonder why?

Asean & the Ugly S’porean Tourist

Or is it the “Ethic Chinese Ugly Tourist?

Wonder if the use of yellow for S’pore’s “crescent and stars” instead of white is to hint that S’pore is part of China: Our flag: Did you know?. Or that all Chinese (PRC or ethnic) are Ugly?

What do u think?

Taylor Swift R Asean: Did u know?

… East or South East Asia, where her fans or “Swifties” are legion. Singapore, the Indonesian capital Jakarta and the Philippines’ most densely packed city, Quezon, are among the world’s top locations for streaming Swift’s songs, according to Spotify.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66117146

And it’s really good news for STB and the tourist industry. In Asia she’s visiting Japan, Oz and S’pore.

So for fans in this corner of Asia, Singapore which is closer, offers visa-free or visa-on-arrival and plenty of cheap flight options, is an easy pick. The country has long been a popular stop for big music acts because of its impressive public transport and infrastructure – Coldplay is performing at the expansive National Stadium a month before Swift.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66117146

Maybe that dog (with fleas) of a stock that I own FEHT will trade consistently above my cost price. To be fair, if I include the payouts, its been a profitable investment, like Singtel (another flea bitten investment). Too bad Singtel won’t benefit much from her visit. But maybe all those calls and sending of photos might help it. But then they’ll all use WhatsApp. The cheapskates.

El Nino affects palm oil supplies

But brokers are trying to finesse when to buy plantation stocks, saying its too early to buy.

Indonesia and cobalt

Further to Indonesia is the new “Lucky Country”, here’s more on cobalt and Indonesia.

It just overtook Oz and the the Philippines in production

Indonesia is the new “Lucky Country”

It had oil and gas.

As these are running out, it has nickel.

Nickel is at the centre of Indonesia’s efforts to become a clean-energy superpower. The country has one of the world’s two largest reserves of the stuff. In an attempt to capture more of the higher-margin markets for metal-processing and battery-making, a decade ago the government banned the export of raw nickel ore.

Economist

And

Now Indonesia has overtaken Australia and the Philippines to become the world’s second-largest supplier of cobalt, a battery metal, after the Democratic Republic of Congo. Many operations are being driven by joint ventures of Chinese companies and local groups, fuelling western anxieties about Beijing’s dominance of the electric car supply chain.

Economist

And we are its financial centre.

Btw, Oz is the original Lucky Country because of its natural resources.

M’sia and Indonesia are doing their bit to keep planet from overheating

Deforestation in Indonesia and Malaysia has fallen sharply since 2016.

Slower growth in 2023 for major Asean economies

Big slow down for us, M’sia, Vietnam and the Philippines, Indonesia’s slow down is “peanuts”.

But Thailand is the exception what with Chinese and Western tourists expected to come.

The tiny tots’ growth rates are improving from last year.

China’s influence in SE Asia has waxed. US of A’s has waned

We and PinoyLand are in America’s corner.

Forward this to PM-in-waiting and other millionaire PAP ministers

We had a good pandemic but we are now a real laggard.

Vote wisely,

M’sia is projected to expand by 4.0% to 5.0% in 2023, driven by firm domestic demand says its govt. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has forecast Malaysia’s economy to grow 4.7% this year, and 4.9% in 2024.

M’sia is more racist than Oz

But Oz is more racist than Thailand and Indonesia. Btw, I’m surprised that Indonesia is less racist than Thailand.

Where our PAP millionaire ministers are happy to let M’sia outperform us

Many years ago S’pore was tops. I think the methodology was then adjusted.

SGX can only look in envy

The Jakarta Stock Exchange enjoyed record ipo volumes in the first quarter. The $800m raised in these flotations outstripped the sums drummed up on Hong Kong’s or New York’s stock exchanges in the same period. 

Economist

When I was in equities, JSE was a backwater. Today it and the Thai market are …

MNCs creating new Co-prosperity Sphere

As workers earn more in China (Chinese labour costs escalate and the US of A tries to contain China, MNCs are creating new supply chains that by-pass China.

No single country offers China’s vast manufacturing base. Yet taken together, a patchwork of economies across Asia presents a formidable alternative. It stretches in a crescent from Hokkaido, in northern Japan, through South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and Bangladesh, all the way to Gujarat, in north-western India. Its members have distinct strengths, from Japan’s high skills and deep pockets to India’s low wages. On paper, this is an opportunity for a useful division of labour, with some countries making sophisticated components and others assembling them into finished gadgets.

https://www.economist.com/business/2023/02/20/global-firms-are-eyeing-asian-alternatives-to-chinese-manufacturing

Other Lion Cities

Notice they are largely in the Indonesian archipelago: the Hindu influence.

We are in a sweet spot cont’d

Four berths in Tuas Mega Port, have been completed. They are the first of 21 due by 2027. When it is completed in 2040, the complex will be the largest container port on Earth, boasts PSA International.

The IMF expects the region’s five largest economies—Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines and Thailand—to be the fastest-growing bloc in the world by trade volumes between 2022 and 2027. 

https://www.economist.com/interactive/business/2023/01/14/investments-in-ports-foretell-the-future-of-global-commerce

We are in a sweet sport because of our Asean neighbours

And by 2050 Indonesia will be the world’s fourth-largest economy, projects Goldman Sachs.

Asean countries are winners from Sino-US decoupling

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/11/06/who-wins-from-the-unravelling-of-sino-american-trade

And we are Asean’s financial centre and a global port to boot. Our PAP millionaire ministers are very lucky that S’poreans allow them to govern us. But are they grateful? I doubt it.

Who in Asean is dependent on Ukrainian wheat?

Why our millionaire ministers deserve their salaries?

This year, NASDAQ in bear market (more than -20%) and S&P in correction (more than -15%). HK and China have been in bear markets since last year.

STI up 3% this year. And if palm oil keeps on flying, and Covid is under control in the region, expect the tourists from Indonesia and M’sia to come in.

What do Mamas, Russians and Indons have in common?

Their data on deaths from Covid is BS.

The truth

Palm oil prices show how dysfunctional Indonesia is

Despite Indonesia being the world’s largest producer of palm oil,

Indonesia banned exports of palm oil, which is widely used in cooking and packaged foods, in a move that may well push up global food prices further. The country accounts for more than half of the world’s palm-oil supply. Indonesia’s president, Joko Widodo, said he wanted to ensure that the cooking oil remains “abundant and affordable” at home, where prices have rocketed.

Economist

Time to invest in M’sian consumer shares?  M’sia is the world’s second- largest producer of the commodity after Indonesia.

Will help our tourism? All those country bumpkins coming here.

Demand for tech staff

More on Indonesia hot air producer

Further to Why we can’t trust the Indon govt, where I reported that the Indonesia forestry minister almost immediately repudiated an agreement that her president signed at COP26 to end deforestation by 2030to stop the destruction of forests, here’s more data on Indonesia’s efforts to make climate change a reality

Why we can’t trust the Indon govt

Recently after President Joko Widodo signed up at COP26 to a forest deal to end deforestation by 2030. Then almost immediately

Indonesia has criticised the terms of a global deal to end deforestation by 2030, signalling that the country may not abide by it.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-59169547

Via Facebook (and in Indonesian), Environment Minister Siti Nurbaya Bakar

said the authorities could not “promise what we can’t do”.

She said forcing Indonesia to commit to zero deforestation by 2030 was “clearly inappropriate and unfair”.

Despite President Joko Widodo signing the forest deal, she said development remained Indonesia’s top priority.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-59169547

The deal, agreed between more than 100 world leaders, was announced last Monday at the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow. It was the event’s first major announcement. It promises to end and reverse deforestation by 2030, and includes almostUS$19.2bn of public and private funds.

How is S’pore to trust the Indonesian govt?

And why should we vote for the SDP so long as Mad Dog Chee calls the shots there?

Among his wackier ideas is to trust the Indonesian govt. And to spend less on defence.

Raffles knew how to deal with the Indonesians: Haze: What Raffles would have done

Reminder: SingTel’s into fintech/ Fintech mkt in Asean

After winning a digital bank licence here last yr, the Grab-SingTel venture is expected to be in contention for more such licences in the region. I think it’s bidding for one such licence in M’sia with local partners.

The u/m shows why this j/v with Grab could be extremely lucrative.

Of course given the size of SingTel’s earnings’ base, any contribution is likely to be “peanuts” and on the margin. But who knows? The j/v can grow like Topsy, given the size of the addressable market and the connections SingTel can bring via its associates in Thailand, Indonesia and PinoyLand can bring. And there are the Pinoy and Indon maids that need to remit $ home.

In my portfolio SingTel is a dog, good dividend though which I take in scrip form, like Temasek.

So here’s hoping. LOL.

And with plenty of luck, maybe it’s associates in the Philippines and Indonesia may get really lucky:

Mobile phone operators MTN and Airtel have both received partial approval from the Central Bank of Nigeria to operate mobile payments in the country.

BBC report earlier today

The last paragraph was added at 1.80 pm on day of publication.

Asia loves coal

Only Indonesia sells more coal than Australia globally. Coal remains OZ’ s second-biggest export after iron ore.

China and India are the world’s biggest users of coal.

Asean currencies V US$

Indon rupiah stronger than S$. Btw, see how strong is Taiwanese dollar. Stronger than Renminbi. Grandpa Zi must be upset.

Three countries using Sinovac or Sinopharm don’t trust their efficacy

[S]ome countries that relied on two Chinese vaccines have concerns about the drugs’ efficacy so want to offer an extra shot of something else. Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates will offer a shot of Pfizer to those citizens who had Sinopharm while Indonesia plans to give health-care workers who were previously given two doses of Sinovac an extra one of Moderna.

https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2021/08/03/which-countries-are-considering-booster-vaccines-for-covid-19

Covid-19: Spare a tot for our neighbours

Unlike us, they don’t have millionaire PAP ministers.

Low vaccination rates and the rapid march through the region of more transmissible variants of covid-19 mean that almost every country is experiencing its worst wave yet. This month Indonesia surpassed India as Asia’s hotspot. With oxygen supplies dwindling and hospitals overcrowded, some health-care systems are near collapse. Death rates are soaring: Indonesia, Malaysia and Myanmar were among the 20 countries with the most deaths per million people in the week to July 29th. Myanmar in particular is hoping that it will be able to tap into ASEAN’s covid-19 fund. Just 3% of its population is vaccinated.

Yesterday’s Economist Expresso

Low vaccination rates hurts 4 Asean countries

In Be thankful we got PAP govt, I showed a chart showing that M’sia and Thailand had serious problems with mama variant. The second chart below explains why: low vaccination rates in these countries.

Then there’s this too

ASEAN-5” refers to Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. Indonesia and PinoyLand also have low vaccination rates.

Asean blues but we are going great guns

Modified at 2.49 pm on day of publication to include data on S’pore.

Economists have slashed their GDP growth forecasts for Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand, three of the region’s biggest economies.

But for S’pore, MAS has revised higher the economic growth forecast for 2021 and expects that GDP growth could go beyond the initial 4%-6% yoy range forecasted.
• MAS Chief Ravi Menon stated that the increase comes on the back of a smooth
vaccination scheme (36.7% fully vaccinated so far) and stronger global demand.
• Inflation numbers for 2021 were also revised higher, with the forecast for headline CPI
increased to 1.0%-2.0% yoy, up from 0.5%-1.5% yoy.

A bad outlook for tourism is the main reason for dimmer prospects in Thailand. Vaccinations are sluggish and hospital beds are running short. Tourists will stay away.

Pandemic restrictions are another drag on regional growth. With many shops shut, Malaysia’s and the Philippines’ prospects don’t look good.

Although growth forecasts have been revised upward for Indonesia, the region’s biggest economy, daily infections there have surged by 500% in recent weeks.

The greatest risk for South-East Asian economies may be America tightening its monetary policy sooner than expected, which would increase the value of the dollar and make corporate dollar-denominated debt more expensive. GDP forecasts may fall further yet.

Economist

Why there be? unicorns in Indonesia

In Where be unicorns? Not India or Western Europe, I showed a table showing that there are unicorns in Indonesia. There have been five companies that have achieved unicorn startup status (worth than US$1bn) in Indonesia: Gojek, Tokopedia, Bukalapak, Traveloka and OVO.

Why?

Well it’s a big place

And look at the number of people in Java and Sumatra

Where be unicorns? Not India or Western Europe

But America and China. And in SE Asia, Indonesia.

Related posts:

Time for India to ban Paytm, Zomato, Byju and Dream11?

Can India afford to boycott Chinese investors?

Covid-19: Int’l media is racist

As are our ang moh tua kees. Think Tan Jee Say: praising NZ’s PM for what she did in containing the pandemic, while ignoring Asian countries which did better. Of course he was dissing our PAP govt, which to be fair hasn’t done a great job, only a good job. It lets too many mamas in: Covid-19: FTs from India reinfecting S’pore

That are my conclusions after seeing this (from ang moh FT which with Economist gives fair coverage)

The int’l media in general, and the ang moh tua kees praise here praise NZ and its PM. It’s done good things but it’s two islands in the middle of the Pacific Ocean.

Praise Vietnam, China, Korea Indonesia and Japan. FT and Economist do this btw in their coverage.

Bye bye Thai

Foreigners have been selling Thai stocks, and Ms’ian and Indon stocks too. Thailand is in the same category of foreigners fleeing as Brazil and Korea.

In Thailand, investors are concerned about the protests against the govt and the monarchy.

GoJek

A unit of Telekom Indonesia is in advanced talks on injecting capital into GoJek, the Indonesian super app decacorn. Btw Decacorn is a company valued at over US$10 billion.  

Indonesia, S’pore dominate VC funding in 1Q

Indonesia has a problem

Fed’s schemes to lend other central banks US$ were of little help to countries such as Turkey, South Africa, Lebanon or Indonesia. They are all shut out of the system.

A problem for Indonesia, which has to repay US$16.7bn this yr.

Pinoys: Asean tua kees

That was my first tot when I looked at the u/m chart on a ranking of financially stronger/ weaker emerging economies .”M’sia tak boleh” was my second tot.

The Asean ranking: PinoyLand (6th), Thailand (7th), Vietnam (12th), Indonesia (16th) and M’sia (25th).

Btw, S’pore’s not ranked because it’s not an emerging economy (except in accountability: S’pore: Bottom of developed world), but South Korea and Taiwan are still emerging economies, even if Korea is a member of of the OECD.

Covid-19: Must be Tablighi Jamaat again

Tablighi Jamaat, an influential Islamic missionary movement, with its HQ in a New Delhi slum, is now responsible for super-spreading Covid-19 in India after doing it in M’sia and Indonesia: Covid-19 in Islamic countries. In Indonesia and M’sia, it was their mass gatherings that caused serious problems. It also affected S’pore because some of people in the M’sian gathering returned to S’pore.

The Tablighi Jamaat have come into the spotlight after an event they held in the Indian capital Delhi has spawned a number of Covid-19 clusters across the country. But exactly who is this group and why did they hold a big gathering in Delhi? BBC Hindi’s Zubair Ahmed reports.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-52131338

With an irresponsible organisation like Tablighi Jamaat, Muslims have to be afraid, very afraid of being cast as disease carriers in India, M’sia and Inonesia. The people who don’t like Muslims and want to hurt them can only be pleased that Tablighi Jamaat was so socially irresponsible in three countries.

With an organisation like Tablighi Jamaat, Muslims don’t need enemies. Time for Muslims to do some serious soul-searching.

Double confirm, Indonesia lied about its Covid-19 cases

After I published Covid-19: Indonesia caught lying, the BBC and other Western media (but not our constructive, nation-building media and our anti-PAP alt media) reported that Indonesia’s president has admitted to not telling the truth about the Wuhan virus.

In nearby Indonesia, which according to John Hopkins has 172 recorded cases of the virus, President Joko Widodo admitted recently that he deliberately held back information about the spread of the virus to prevent panic.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51939911

Btw, for a time on Thurday, a sharp jump in deaths (19) in Indonesia meant that it outranked Italy (2978 deaths then, a few hundred more since then and overtaking China in the death rankings) in mortality rates, Italy is the centre of the Wuhan virus in Europe. There are at least 36,000 cases of the virus in Italy. So this probably means that there a lot unreported cases in Indonesia.

Related post: Haze: What Raffles would have done

Covid-19: Indonesia caught lying

On February 15, I posted on why experts were sceptical on the Indonesian claim that there were no Covid-19 cases in the country. I thought it was was in denial, lying or deluded that it had missed the bullet on the Wuhan virus: Wuhan virus: Indonesia is known unknown. (Piece is below)

A minister said that the ang mohs were wrong to be sceptical about the reported absence of the virus despite the many Chinese tourists that had visited Bali. He said prayers to Allah prevented the virus from coming in.

Well on 13 March, our constructive, nation-building media reported that there were five Indonesians here who brought in the virus from Indonesia.

Then an Indonesian spokesman was caught lying that S’pore had refused to provide Indonesia with the details of Indonesians with the virus. The Indonesian Foreign Affairs Ministry said that they had the information and that it had been forwarded to the spokesman’s ministry.

And Mad Dog wants us to kiss Indonesia’s ass? And throw away our arms? With a friend like Indonesia, who needs enemies? With Mad Dog as a Singaporean, who needs enemies?

The 15 February piece.

Wuhan virus: Indonesia is known unknown

Extracts from a very long Guardian report (link below) showing why there is good reason to be worried about the reported absence of the Wuhan virus in Indonesia.

A Harvard academic has defended research suggesting a possible underreporting of coronavirus cases in Indonesia, following fierce criticism from the health minister in the world’s fourth most populous country, which insists it has no cases.

Professor Marc Lipsitch analysed air traffic out of the Chinese city at the centre of the outbreak in China and suggested in a report last week that Indonesia might have missed cases. On Tuesday the Indonesian health minister Terawan Agus Putranto called the report “insulting” and said the country had proper testing equipment.

On Thursday, health officials in Indonesia, which has a population of 272 million and is a popular destination for Chinese tourists, said they were retracing the movements of a Chinese tourist who was diagnosed with coronavirus upon his return from Bali. No-one in Bali has yet been found with symptoms.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/14/indonesia-coronavirus-academic-harvard-marc-lipsitch

Note there were no test kits until early Feb

A leading hypothesis for the lack of reported cases in Indonesia is that imported cases were missed, said Lipsitch, who pointed to a Sydney Morning Herald report that the country had no test kits until 5 February in support of the theory.

“If cases have been introduced into Indonesia, then there is a good chance that more cases are circulating via transmission from those cases. If so, they may go undetected for some weeks as the individuals may not seek care or may not be suspected and tested for coronavirus, especially if there is no direct link to China.”

Samples only tested in Jakarta

Currently, the policy in Yogyakarta is to ship all samples from potentially affected patients to testing facilities in Jakarta

Insufficient training to detect virus

Dr Riris Andono Ahmad, director of the Center for Tropical Medicine at Gadjah Mada University in Yogyakarta, said facilities had been set up to handle potential cases but health practitioners have not received sufficient training. “We need to be much more alert,” Ahmad said.

Insufficient public knowledge

“Public awareness of effective prevention measures is not high,” he said. “For instance, there was a lot of panic-buying of masks, but masks only work with people who are already sick. Whereas something that actually works, like washing hands more frequently – I don’t know how many people are really doing it yet.”

And finally, Indonesian officials are BS artists

One senior former diplomat in the country, who did not want to to be named, said he did not believe official assertions that no cases had been found. “There’s a tendency to hide or gloss over serious problems in the top levels of the government,” he said. “I’m a bit concerned.”.

…

Wuhan virus: Indonesia is known unknown

Extracts from a very long Guardian report (link below) showing why there is good reason to be worried about the reported absence of the Wuhan virus in Indonesia.

A Harvard academic has defended research suggesting a possible underreporting of coronavirus cases in Indonesia, following fierce criticism from the health minister in the world’s fourth most populous country, which insists it has no cases.

Professor Marc Lipsitch analysed air traffic out of the Chinese city at the centre of the outbreak in China and suggested in a report last week that Indonesia might have missed cases. On Tuesday the Indonesian health minister Terawan Agus Putranto called the report “insulting” and said the country had proper testing equipment.

On Thursday, health officials in Indonesia, which has a population of 272 million and is a popular destination for Chinese tourists, said they were retracing the movements of a Chinese tourist who was diagnosed with coronavirus upon his return from Bali. No-one in Bali has yet been found with symptoms.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/14/indonesia-coronavirus-academic-harvard-marc-lipsitch

Note there were no test kits until early Feb

A leading hypothesis for the lack of reported cases in Indonesia is that imported cases were missed, said Lipsitch, who pointed to a Sydney Morning Herald report that the country had no test kits until 5 February in support of the theory.

“If cases have been introduced into Indonesia, then there is a good chance that more cases are circulating via transmission from those cases. If so, they may go undetected for some weeks as the individuals may not seek care or may not be suspected and tested for coronavirus, especially if there is no direct link to China.”

Samples only tested in Jakarta

Currently, the policy in Yogyakarta is to ship all samples from potentially affected patients to testing facilities in Jakarta

Insufficient training to detect virus

Dr Riris Andono Ahmad, director of the Center for Tropical Medicine at Gadjah Mada University in Yogyakarta, said facilities had been set up to handle potential cases but health practitioners have not received sufficient training. “We need to be much more alert,” Ahmad said.

Insufficient public knowledge

“Public awareness of effective prevention measures is not high,” he said. “For instance, there was a lot of panic-buying of masks, but masks only work with people who are already sick. Whereas something that actually works, like washing hands more frequently – I don’t know how many people are really doing it yet.”

And finally, Indonesian officials are BS artists

One senior former diplomat in the country, who did not want to to be named, said he did not believe official assertions that no cases had been found. “There’s a tendency to hide or gloss over serious problems in the top levels of the government,” he said. “I’m a bit concerned.”.

…

 

 

Buying STI ETF is buying into HK

I’ve always told young people who want to invest in local shares to buy into one of the two STI ETFs if they believe that the PAP govt is doing a decent job and will continue doing a decent job, and if they believe that it will continue ruling S’pore. A coalition of the Spastics (Mad Dog, Lim Tean and Goh Meng Seng) will ruin S’pore.

But with the troubles in HK, I’ve had to modify that advice by telling them that because the STI Index has a heavy HK component, they have to think about HK’s problems and its long term future.

I tell them that around 13% of the STI Index (by mkt cap) is made up cos in the Jardines Group. Jardine and Matheson (and Sassoon) were the original narco drug barons. Jardines Group is still very HK-based: Dairy Farm, Jardine Matheson, and HK Land. All these cos are in STI, as is Jardine C&C*. See table for the HK exposures of the Jardines Group: SGX-listed stocks that have serious HK exposure. Note that Mandarin Htls is part of Jardines Group.

I’ll end with a link to the constructive, nation-building BT, defending the heavy presence of Jardines in STI Index: https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/are-there-risks-to-having-too-many-jardine-units-in-the-sti. Note a far cry from its snide remarks in 2010. See STI ETFs — Are there values there?.

---

*Jardine C&C is big in Indonesia: Impt of Indonesia to Jardine’s and other local listcos

 

S’pore: Bottom of class in Asean

Don’t believe me? Look at this table where MNCs relocating from China are going to.

To be fair, S’pore’s a developed city-state while the rest of Asean are third-world countries: including M’sia.

Btw, table also shows that PeenoyLand and Indonesia are “shithole” countries as far as manufacturing investments are concerned. Infrastructure problems, poor governance and bad labour and other laws ensure that MNCs don’t relocate there despite cheap labour and in Peenoy’s case, the use of some kind of English.

Asean experts in infowars

(Two excerpts from a very long BBC article)

No, the Asean experts in infowars are not our our very own Terry’s Online Channel or Kirsten Han and PJ Thum minister who are minister Shan’s demons (Praying for minister Shan), but the Indonesian govt.

Indonesia’s Papua province has become the focus of a well-funded social media campaign using bots to promote a pro-government agenda, the BBC has found.

A long-running Papuan separatist movement has flared in recent months, sparking fresh calls for self-rule.

But with access to the region heavily restricted, social media has become a key source for the foreign press.

One expert told the BBC the apparently co-ordinated campaigns were seeking to skew international views of Papua.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-49983667?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.com/news/world/asia&link_location=live-reporting-story

Here’s how it’s done

[A] network of automated fake accounts spread across at least four social media platforms and numerous websites which could be traced to a Jakarta-based media company, InsightID.

The bots would jump on to hashtags being used by groups supporting independence, such as #freewestpapua, so they swamped negative reporting with positive stories about investment in the region, a process known as “hashtag hijacking”.

This technique was also used on Facebook. One such message, in English, said Indonesia had invited the UN to Papua to assess the situation. But the UN has complained that, despite an agreement more than a year ago, an official visit has still to take place.

The company pushed out content on Facebook with paid ads targeting users in the US, UK and Europe.

“The risk of a campaign like this, in a place with so little access to truly independent media, is it skews the perceptions and understanding of the international community in a way that doesn’t reflect reality,” says ASPI cyber researcher Elise Thomas.

“That appears to be the goal, one which someone is willing to spend hundreds of dollars and many months to achieve.”

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-49983667?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.com/news/world/asia&link_location=live-reporting-story

Related post:

Indonesian riots prove minister’s point on zero tolerance of racist remarks?

And since the post’s publication:

A new wave of violence has hit the restive Indonesian region of West Papua after hundreds of protesters, mostly high school students, set fire to several buildings in a town on Monday.

At least 23 people died in the regional capital Wamena, some of whom were trapped inside burning buildings.

The protests were reportedly triggered by a teacher’s racist comments – an allegation the police called a “hoax”.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-49806182?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.com/news/world/asia&link_location=live-reporting

Stop being fascinated with HK riots, look closer home

Alt media and social media is fascinated with the HK riots. They want something like that to happen here isit?

Meanwhile, they ignore the riots in Jakarta where unpopular legislative changes have brought tens of thousands of demonstrators onto the streets

The protests were triggered by bills hurried through in the final days of the parliamentary session, before a new cabinet is appointed and Widodo gets sworn in for a second term. They include an effort to introduce a criminal code outlawing sex outside marriage, among other things, and changes to limit the powers of the country’s ranti-corruption commission, known by its Indonesian initials as the KPK.

What happens in Indonesia also affects us, ang moh tua kees and anti-PAP cybernuts.

 

Neighbouthood’s in a pretty good place

The Philippines, Indonesia and Thailand are in a position to loosen fiscal and monetary policy, according to Pictet.

As is Tun’s M’sia, going by Pictet’s analysis.

Haze: Clearing land without burning is very expensive

Yesterday, the haze got worse. It was also the day I read an article in the Economist. Sharing what it wrote.

It just makes financial sense to clear land by burning it (Me rather than Economist):

Preparing land for plantations without using fire costs around [US]$300-400 a hectare, says Herry Purnomo of the Centre for International Forestry Research, which is based in Indonesia, whereas burning costs [US]$30.

https://www.economist.com/asia/2019/09/19/burning-forests-are-blackening-the-skies-of-south-east-asia

Btw, got to add to US$30, the cost of bribes:

In theory, using fire to do this is illegal, but the local officials who should stop it are easily bought off.

Clearing land by other means is juz dumb human thinking at work, Mr Spock would say (My tot: not Economist’s).

And that’s not all. Indonesian govt helps make cost of burning lower. The Indonesia govt doesn’t bother to collect fines it imposes on burners:

as of February, some [US]$220m in fines owed by plantation companies involved in past fires remained unpaid.

Because so cheap, so no wonder

In one district, according to Doni Monardo of the National Disaster Mitigation Agency, 80% of the fires appear to be intended to convert forest into palm-oil plantations.

Loos like nothing changed from 2015: Indon false pride and BS.

And btw, lol, Haze: PAP govt cares, they really do. So vote wisely especially if you are thinking of voting for Lim Tean’s gang.

He wants us to go to war with Indonesia. He wants us to deal directly with the Riau authorities. Indonesian govt would rightly see this as an infringement of its sovereignty. But then Lim Tean like this:n Whatever happened to Lim Tean’s defamation video? And his jobs rally? To be fair, sometime in early 2019, he delivered his video. It was BS and more than two yrs late.

Indons thrash us, Viet Kong catching up

Where’s M’sia and Thailand?

China: “Do unto others as you would have them do unto you”

The United States should learn how to behave like a responsible global power and stop acting as a ‘school bully’. As the world’s only superpower, it needs to shoulder its due responsibility, and join other countries in making this world a better and more prosperous place. Only then can America become great again.

Chinese’s official Xinhua news agency said recently about the US imposition of more tariffs.

Bit rich of China to say this because the same could be said of China in its relations with Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia over its territorial disputes with these countries. Example: this is what happened when a Peenoy who loves licking Xi’s ass raised PinoyLand’s dispute with Xi

Duterte admitted on Wednesday, September 4, during a press conference in Malacañang that he fully expected Xi to reiterate their rejection of the arbitral ruling and he had no alternative strategy for such a scenario.

“‘Yan ang problema nitong mga yawa na ito sige tanong, ‘Go to China’ ganon. Nandoon na nga ako ilang beses na eh. Baka sabihin pa ni Xi Jinping, ‘Putang ina sampalin kita. Ilang beses na kita sinagot? Sinabi ko na sa iyong amin ‘yan.’ Kasi kung ako tanungin mo, ganon ang sagutin kita,” said Duterte,

(That’s the problem with these foolish critics who keep saying, ‘Go to China.’ I was there many times already. Maybe Xi Jinping will say, ‘You son of a bitch, I’ll slap you. How many times have I answered you? I already said that sea is ours.’ Because if you ask me that question, that’s how I would answer you.)

Xi, according to Duterte, responded to his “reiteration” of the arbitral award by saying, “We will not budge.”

https://www.rappler.com/nation/239397-duterte-knew-raising-hague-ruling-west-philippine-sea-with-xi-futile

Sci-fi? U$20bn plan to power S’pore with Oz solar

What is this Oz man smoking?

‘Just a matter of when’: the $20bn plan to power Singapore with Australian solar

The desert outside Tennant Creek, deep in the Northern Territory, is not the most obvious place to build and transmit Singapore’s future electricity supply … The developers say it will be able to provide one-fifth of the island city-state’s electricity needs, replacing its increasingly expensive gas-fired power …

Sun Cable’s chief executive, David Griffin, is bullish about the possibility of his company helping power Singapore from the outback in less than a decade.

He says the project will use prefabricated solar cells to capture “one of the best solar radiance reserves on the planet”. But he says the major transformation that makes the farm possible is the advent of high-voltage, direct-current submarine cable, which he describes as the “greatest unsung technology development”. Sun Cable’s underwater link to Singapore will run 3,800km.

“It is extraordinary technology that is going to change the flow of energy between countries. It is going to have profound implications and the extent of those implications hasn’t been widely identified,” Griffin says.

“If you have the transmission of electricity over very large distances between countries, then the flow of energy changes from liquid fuels – oil and LNG – to electrons. Ultimately, that’s a vastly more efficient way to transport energy. The incumbents just won’t be able to compete.”

Sun Cable’s backers believe Singapore, as a well-regulated electricity market that runs mostly on gas piped from Malaysia and Indonesia and shipped as LNG, is ripe for competition.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jul/14/just-a-matter-of-when-the-20bn-plan-to-power-singapore-with-australian-solar?fbclid=IwAR0hyiT_gNgXdKpA2CeSweuQCyrpKyIPO6TINQcm4K4tfJnuMhyfNXfJLak

Coming back to “What is this Oz man smoking?” He’s smoking what TRE’s Oz-based funder and grave dancer, and his fellow anti-PAP cybernuts are smoking. Oxygen and the other cybernuts are shouting themselves hoarse that the Spastics’ League will defeat the PAP at the next GE.

But there’s still hope for Oxygen and his fellow cybernuts. After the PAP wins the next GE convincing: Sci-fi story predicts S’pore after next GE?. 

I’ll end with this which helps explain why cybernuts are the way they are:

Change blindness refers to the phenomenon in which viewers fail to detect (sometimes surprisingly dramatic) changes to a visual scene. One way of demonstrating this effect is through a procedure called a “flicker paradigm” in which two very similar scenes alternate, with a few discrepancies between them. Detecting changes in a flicker paradigm is such a surprisingly difficult task that when a team of psychologists led by Ronald Rensink first tried to publish research on the topic in the mid-90s, their results were initially rejected by peer reviewers as impossible. In other words, the fact people could be change blind was so counterintuitive that even visual scientists were inclined to doubt the reality of the phenomenon.

Today, change blindness is an established part of cognitive psychology. Scientists have even introduced the term change blindness blindness to refer to the fact that people tend to be ignorant of their change blindness.

https://atans1.wordpress.com/wp-admin/post.php?post=47371&action=edit

 

 

Temasek’s US$800m investment in obscure Google unit

In 2017, Verily secured U$800m from Temasek in exchange for a “minority stake” (Que the usual KPKBing from TOC and other cybernuts). Funny, they very quiet when earlier this year, Silver Lake (tua kee private equity tech investor) and Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan (tua kee savvy investor) invested US$1bn for “minority stakes” in Verily.

What is Verily?

Verily is Alphabet Inc.’s research organization devoted to the study of life sciences. The organization was formerly a division of Google X, until August 10, 2015, when Sergey Brin announced that the organization would become an independent subsidiary of Alphabet Inc.

Wikipedia

It made $ in 2016: https://www.vox.com/2016/4/13/11586102/verily-alphabet-profitable. Nothing heard since then.

It is, often through partnerships with healthcare companies or universities, using health data for clues that might predict and prevent diseases. Tools it uses include search, AI, cloud services and other such high tech stuff.

It has struck deals with large pharmaceutical companies (Examples GlaxoSmithKline, Dexcom, Sanofi and J&J) , device makers and research institutions (Think Duke University and Stanford Medicine), offering expertise in machine learning and user experience in exchange for deeper knowledge of medicine and regulation. Sounds a good trade.

Temasek has also been working with Google in this region: Indonesia: Temasek, Google & McKinsey singing from the same page.

Google joins Temasek in Go-Jek: Ho Ho Ho: Google agrees with Temasek.

Fyi, Temasek, GIC got this right in our backyard

 

Indonesian riots prove minister’s point on zero tolerance of racist remarks?

If a racist rap video was allowed to remain online, it could normalise offensive speech and such attacks against other races could become mainstream, said Law and Home Affairs Minister K Shanmugam.

Speaking at the CNM Leaders Summit organised by the National University of Singapore’s Department of Communications and New Media on Thursday (Aug 22), Mr Shanmugam expanded on why the Government acted to remove the rap video by YouTuber Preetipls and her brother Subhas Nair, which came in response to a controversial “brownface” advertisement.

Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/preetipls-subhas-nair-rap-video-normalised-offensive-speech-11834928

Constructive, nation-building CNA

Well the following article from the BBC about violent protests in West Papua province is evidence that he isn’t talking cock about the probability of violence when there’s official tolerance of racist language. Racist taunts aimed at a group of students from West Papua in Java have sparked violent protests in Indonesia’s West Papua.

What happened in Java last weekend

The groundswell of anger that has fuelled the latest demonstrators was sparked by an incident in the Javanese city of Surabaya at the weekend.

After accusing Papuan university students of damaging an Indonesian flag during Independence Day celebrations, nationalist groups surrounded their boarding house and goaded them with racist taunts, calling them “monkeys”, “pigs” and “dogs”.

Police in riot gear then stormed the dormitory to force the students out. Authorities said the students were briefly questioned before being set free.

This resulted in violent protests in West Papua

The area’s largest protests in years saw numerous buildings torched – including a jail and a market – and resulted in the Indonesian government deploying thousands of additional security officers to an area which is already the country’s most heavily militarised.

The internet has also been shut down to “restore security”, according to the Indonesian government.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-49434277

But it’s more than racist taunts. Papuan students in Java, told BBC Indonesian they are often made to feel like second-class citizens.

“I have been turned away from student boarding houses and told that they will not receive boarders who are Papuan students,” said Benfa, a Papua student in Yogyakarta.

“We face discrimination and racism daily,” Aris Yeimo, from the Papuan student union, added.

Coming back to the spark that started the riots (the racial taunts),  a few Indonesian politicians are showing some sensitivity. The governor of East Java province apologised for the racism in Surabaya, and President Joko Widodo announced plans to visit Papua. But better not to have allowed the taunts in the first place?

Related post:

Brownfacegate: Did you know Shanmugam also said this?

Typical Chinese reaction to “brownface” ad/ Cina also can get upset

Brownfacegate: The inside story?

S’pore, Indonesia doing well in unicorn breeding

A unicorn is a privately held startup company with a current valuation of US$1 billion or more.

S’pore’s got two: Grab (the mobility platform that wants to conquer SE Asia) and Trax (Computer vision technology for use in retail industry: FT builds tools for bricks-and-mortar retail)

Whatever, we are doing pretty well in unicorn breeding. We’ve got two, while Japan has only three.

But then Indonesia has four  Go-Jek, Tokopedia, Traveloka, and Bukalapak.

Go-Jek is a mobility platform that also wants to rule SE Asia. Tokopedia and  Bukalapak are e-commerce businesses Traveloka provides airline ticketing and hotel booking services online.

Akan Datang: really bad haze

Could be like the one in 2015: Haze, 9/11 & TOC or the one in 2013: P Ravi’s reposting: What the govt should have done.

Indonesia is experiencing the worst annual fire season since 2015 and it’s comparable to the Amazon fires: “Whether or not the situation can be contained will become clear in the coming weeks,” BBC

As fires rage in Brazil’s Amazon rainforest, the south-east Asian nation of Indonesia is witnessing a similarly devastating ecological tragedy unfold.

The dry season has arrived in Indonesia – home to some of the world’s oldest tropical forests – bringing with it its worst annual fire season since 2015.

Close to 700 hotspots have been identified in fire-prone regions in Sumatra, Kalimantan and the Riau islands.

…

Prevailing winds carrying smokes and dust particles have picked up, blowing towards Malaysia and Singapore.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-49444325?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.com/news/science_and_environment&link_location=live-reporting-story

And the usual Indon BS

Military planes, ready with water jets, comb the skies above Kalimantan and Sumatra in search of impending fire.

Btw, the area where the new capital will be is within the areas where there are annual fires

Indonesia is pressing ahead with plans to move its capital from the traffic-choked city of Jakarta to the island of Borneo. The precise location has not yet been revealed – nor has a timeline – but President Joko Widodo formally launched the scheme in parliament on 16 August.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-49406700

 

Chaos can be good for S$, PM, PAP

I kid u not.

HK$ rose against US$ despite the protests and riots that created economic uncertainty. Hmm maybe Mad Dog in power could be good for S$.

S’pore bidding for 2032 Olympics?

Malaysia and Singapore are reportedly considering a joint bid,

Nikkei Asian Review

In a story about Indonesia’s planned bid, the NAR reported the above. It also reported that India was planning a bid and the idea of a North-South Korea bid has also been floated.

It says that India would pose the greatest threat to Indonesia succeeding.

Some Asean currencies are a cheong

We know how the S$ has been performing against US$. But did you know that some Asean Currencies have strengthened against US$? And the Indian rupee? Tell that to the Nairs and maybe they’ll be less uptight about not being Chinese in S’pore: Brownfacegate: Did you know Shanmugam also said this?

At one time local Chinese chauvinists called S’pore either the 3rd or 4th China (depending on whether they excluded HK from China: it was then a British colony). One Harry Lee locked them up but he made sure that Chinese kids had to study Mandarin.

Why Sino-US Cold War is great for our economy

It’ll do for our economy what the Vietnam War did for HK and our economies: spur economic growth

Further to Will the last US MNC leaving China switch off the lights, the charts below show almost nothing is made in America. Almost everything is made in China, and almost the rest in Asean i.e. countries like Vietnam, Indonesia and M’sia.

As the regional trading, financial heart and hi-tech manufacturing centre (Think Ang moh manufacturer employs more people here than in China and planning to employ a lot more) of Asean, we’ll benefit (Think Ang moh who bot S$73.8m flat).

Bang yr balls Oz-based TRE cybernut and funder “Oxygen”. Left S’pore a long time ago but still hates S’pore and wishes us ill. But still has CPF account. Used to evade Oz tax, it’s alleged by Secret Squirrel.

But of course short term we suffer: “Only cold spell coming, but not Winter,” says Heng. 

Vote wisely. Remember: IMF affirms support for PAP policies.

 

 

Temasek, GIC got this right in our backyard

Indonesia is really the place to be in e-commerce.

And Temasek is there: Indonesia: Temasek, Google & McKinsey singing from the same page

As is GIC via Bukalapak: an e-commerce unicorn: https://techcrunch.com/2019/01/18/bukalapak-raises-50m/

Btw, Go-Jek where Temasek has a stake has big plans in Thailand and Vietnam, as does Grab (where Temasek also has a stake).

 

 

HoHoHo: Bad news for Go-Jek and Grab

Uber’s shares sank almost 8 per cent below their offer price on Friday, giving the ride-hailing company a disappointing market value of below $70bn — a far cry from the $100bn valuation it had until recently hoped to achieve.

FT today

Meanwhile Lyft which was valued at U$22.4bn at its IPO closing price (up 9% from its offer price). By May 7th, the day it reported results for the first quarter as a public company, it was worth only US$17bn. Lyft’s share price fell by another 11% the next day.

These performances have

left investors questioning the appetite for unprofitable car-booking companies that have relied on a flood of private capital to fund heated expansion and competition.

FT

As Economist says

Both firms have enough cash to continue to burn money for years, but public investors expect a rapid path to profitability. Making it into the black will require either raising prices or reducing the cut of bookings passed on to drivers. The former will be hard; in many markets ride-hailing competes with other cheap modes of transport, such as buses, bicycles and riders’ own cars.

Think Grab and Go-Jek, and Temasek that has invested in them. Grab and Go-Jek are also losing money.

Btw, in 2018 according to an article in the Tiền Phong newspaper, GIC realised a 60% loss over 4 years after it sold 5.4 million shares in Vietnamese taxi operator Vinasun.

 

Jialat for M’sia and Indonesia/ Even a Chinese M’sian minister is stupid

A pair of Scottish entrepreneurs are aiming to go global with their hope to replace palm oil using coffee waste.

Scott Kennedy and Fergus Moore said they came up with a unique way to extract oil from used coffee grounds which had a wide range of uses.

Palm oil is found in many household products, but environmentalists say demand for it is devastating rainforests in Asia.

Manufacturers are now under pressure to find an alternative.

…

“About 60% of a cafe’s waste is about coffee grounds.

…

“The most exciting part for us is that they have all the same components as palm.

“Palm oil’s in the news for all the wrong reasons. It’s really exciting for us that we could potentially provide a local and more sustainable alternative to all the industries that are currently using palm oil.”

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-48023412

In a sign of how nervous the M’sian govt is of criticism of palm oil, a M’sian minister criticises ‘sensationalised’ signs on palm oil at Singapore Zoo.

https://www.todayonline.com/world/malaysian-minister-criticises-sensationalised-signs-palm-oil-singapore-zoo

And she’s Chinese and from DAP. I tot only stupid, balls-carrying Malay ministers from Bersatu criticise S’pore. Didn’t realise got such people from DAP.

 

 

Indonesia: Temasek, Google & McKinsey singing from the same page

Only Indonesia is outpacing India digitally, according to McKinsey.

No wonder Temasek sees a bright future for e-commerce in the region.

In a report in November [2018], Google and … Temasek calculated the value of south-east Asia’s internet economy at $72bn in 2018.

Previous reports by the pair have predicted a regional internet economy worth $200bn by 2025, but last year they raised that projection to closer to $240bn.

“… south-east Asia’s internet economy hit an inflection point in 2018. Powered by the most engaged mobile internet users in the world, industries like ecommerce, online media, online travel and ride-hailing grew at an unprecedented rate,” they wrote.

“Investors have taken notice, pouring record amounts of funds into the region — now it’s time for everyone else to pay attention.”

FT

Temask has stakes in Indonesian start-ups Go-Jek and Warung Pintat (retail tech start-up). Grab where Temasek has an investment is a rival to Go-Jek in Indonesia.

PAP needs strong Chinese economic growth

Looking at chart, it’s no wonder our finance minister is really worried if Trump paks China really hard. S’pore’s very dependent on Chinese growth because China is an integral part of Asian supply chains.

South Korea, Taiwan, S’pore, M’sia, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines have all benefited from the rise of China as a manufacturing power, especially since the global financial crisis.

Singapore assessing 2019 forecasts amidst escalating trade spat: Finance minister

Singapore has already witnessed a slash in business investments amidst the looming trade wars.

Finance minister Heng Swee Keat thinks that Singapore may have to look out on its economic growth projects for 2019 amidst the escalating US-China trade tensions that have pumped up uncertainty for business investments.

“In the short run, the impact is not fully felt yet,” with Singapore retaining its growth forecast for this year at 2.5% to 3.5%, Heng said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “But any trade tension that sets back globalization will affect everyone, including the countries that are directly involved, but also collateral damage right across all economies.”

Heng acknowledged that the Lion City had already witnessed the effects of the trade war through increased uncertainty and reduced investment by businesses, noting that next year’s situation will depend on how the situation will unfold in the next few months.

The ‘global production frontier’ being diminished could allow a prolonged trade war to severely disrupt the global supply chain thereby hitting countries with long-term growth challenges, the minister said.

“Our priority areas remain for economic restructuring,” Heng explained. “The other big area is looking at infrastructure development” with urbanization being a major trend in Asia.

Here’s more from Bloomberg.

 

Asean “No friend” China, Trump triumphant

In August, M’sia’s PM when in China cancelled several multi-billion dollar projects, including the East-Coast Rail Link and two gas pipelines, talking about runaway costs and affordability.

Less noisily, Burmese officials announced in June that they are reviewing and trying to revise down costs for a US$9bn China-backed port. And there’s more: Indonesia, Bangladesh and Thailand have quietly turned away Chinese financing for new ports, rails and plants. According to Fitch Solutions, this year alone, nearly 38 projects have been cancelled or suspended, up from just 12 in 2016.

Looks like no Belt for Xi’s Road and Belt dream.

Trump must be happy.

Indonesia wasted aid money to detect tsunami

Remember a few yrs ago, it was reported that S’pore funded systems to detect or monitor forest fires in Riau were not maintained by the Indonesian authorities?

Well it now seems a tsunami warning system was not repaired or maintained by the Indonesian authorities.

Talking about the recent Palu tragedy (“The number of people known to have died in Indonesia in Friday’s earthquake and tsunami has risen to 1,347, disaster response officials say.”) the BBC reported

Could more lives have been saved?

It’s possible, as Indonesia does actually have a more advanced tsunami warning system, including a network of 21 buoys which would have dispatched advance warnings based on data gathered by deep sea sensors.

However none of these buoys – donated by the US, Germany and Malaysia after the devastating 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami that killed nearly a quarter of a million people – are working. Some have been damaged by vandals and others have been stolen.

A replacement system has been delayed due to a lack of funds.

Because of this the BMKG predicts post-earthquake tsunamis using a modelling system based on the earthquake depth and magnitude.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-45663054

Sad.

“Government in general, any government anywhere, is a thing of exquisite comicality to a discerning mind.”
―from NOSTROMO (1904)

Go NE Asean, Young S’porean

A report by worldwide management consulting firm McKinsey & Company released on Sept 14 found that eight out of 18 of the world’s best-performing emerging economies — including Cambodia, Laos, Indonesia and Vietnam — are in South-east Asia. These economies averaged at least 3.5%  annual per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth over 50 years, or 5 per cent annual growth over 20 years.

But be warned Cambodia and Laos is bandit country: you can get killed by unhappy biz rivals. Vietnam is a lot safer.

Indonesia? A country of the future. But it has always been like that.

Our fragile neighbours

Think the woes in Turkey are irrelevant to us? Far away Muslim country.

Well look at this table https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/breakingviews/1/951/1238/index.html

If Turkey goes, M’sia (6th with Turkey as Number 1) and Indonesia (8th) are likely to get into trouble.

As could Thailand (15th), India (10th), China (12th) and S Korea (14th)

Peenoys give the lie to the importance of press freedom

In Prosperity with S’porean, Chinese characteristics I quoted the typical ang moh view that

The case for a free press rests not only on classical liberal principles but also on hard data. Cross-country studies show strong and consistent associations between unfettered media, vibrant democracies and limited corruption.

Peenoy Land has a very free press, couresy of American rule, but look at how poor its people are compared to four other Asean countries, three in which press freedom is an expensive luxury. Only Indonesia has a free press.

S$ currencies tua kee

As emerging mkts currencies are sold off, Sino and Indo currencies remain steady versus Trump’s $.

M’sia: Time to buy?

M’sian mkt being ignored. One of least crowded emerging markets. Thailand and China look vulnerable because everyone’s there. Indonesia, Pinoy Land, Taiwan, Korea and India are in between. 

Must be cheap skate cybernuts visting Johor

Diagram shows that M’sia is even worse than Vietnam in not fleecing tourists: must all those freeloading TRE, TOC readers and other cheap skates taking adv of weak ringgit. Tun will not be happy. 

M’sian economy: a safe haven in emerging mkts storm

Tun should chill out on his fears for the M’sian economy. His fiance minister and Najib  are right about how gd the economy is: Either Tun or his Cina finance minister is wrong: OK, OK vis-a-vis other emerging mkts.

Remember the Taper Tantrum of 2013? Back then, the talk was of the Fragile Five (sometimes known as the BIITS): Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey and South Africa:  these large emerging markets had large current account deficits.

Well the tantrum is back with India, Indonesia, Turkey, Pakistan and the Philippines recently raising their official interest rates but despite Tun’s KPKBing M’sia is in great shape. True getting rid of GST is not a great idea but with oil in the US$70s , there’s room for compacency: Mahathirnomics/ Luck of the devil.

Juz tell that to the foreigners selling M’sian equities.

When CIA bombed Indonesia

This

Charles Chong says historian Thum had ‘engineered’ support for himself, points to ‘coordinated attempt’ with ‘foreign actors’ to subvert parliamentary process

and the sebsequent KPKBing by the ang moh tua kees (“witch hunt”) reminded me of documented foreign interference in the affairs of SE Asian countries in the 1950s.

The story of an almost forgotten episode in the histories of the CIA and Indonesia. The CIA’s airforce was supporting rebels in Sulawesi.

http://www.warhistoryonline.com/guest-bloggers/pby-catalina-26-invaders-p-51-mustangs-cia-rebel-air-force-attacking-indonesia-1958-m.html

The CIA was also active in supplying arms to the Acheh rebels at the other end of Indonesia.

This was happening around the time the British detained people like Devan Nair and Lim Chin Siong here for subversion.

Then there was the incident related in Why PAP (and PMs) sue and sue a year later here. Might not be the CIA directly but weren’t the KMT friends of the CIA? 

“Just because you’re paranoid doesn’t mean they aren’t after you.”

― Joseph Heller, Catch-22

Allah also against Uber?/ Our “religion”

In Indonesia Uber “has been outmanoeuvred by Go-Jek’s Go-Car, launched in 2016” says the FT.  It’s also ahead of Grab, co-founded by a cross-wearing M’sian Christian, now living in S’pore: Real reason why Uber lost to Grab.

Indonesia is impt because it’s 2/3 of the regional market according to the FT. But can Allah help out in other SE Asian countries?

Excluding Vietnam (Jesus and Buddha), M’sia (Allah got competition with Jesus, Buddha, Guan Ying, our Harry and the Hindoo gods), the Philippines (Jesus and Durterte), Singapore (Hard Truths) and Thailand (Buddha) have varying prohibitions on motorbike ride-hailing, Go-Jerk’s strength (Allah likes motorbikes?), FT points out.

 

Oversea Chinese not real Chinese

And when the Javanese helped the Chinese in Java

When the Dutch took over Indonesia in the 1700’s, they segregated Chinese merchants and workers that otherwise lived among the Indonesians, culminating in the 1740 Batavia massacre where Chinese were targeted for death. While the Dutch embassy to the Qing dynasty apologized for the East India’s company’s murder of ethnic Chinese, the Qing Emperor told them that any Chinese who leaves Qing territory is no longer Chinese, so he didn’t care. The only people willing to help the Chinese were the Javanese they lived with, leading to the Java War (1741–43) against Dutch rule.

The rest of the Quora article which talks about the Chinese coming in SE Asia before the 19th century migrations.

Ask the Indonesians/Malaysians

In the 1200’s, the Yuan dynasty’s fleet invaded Java but was repelled by the Singhasari kingdom, which in turn benefited from captured Chinese technology such as better ships. A century later the Ming dynasty would send their treasure fleets through Southeast Asia in a mission of peaceful trade, with some Chinese muslims staying behind to join the Muslim communities of Southeast Asia.

The Ming dynasty eventually established a peaceful relationship with the Muslim Malacca sultanate, with thousands of Fujian Chinese immigrating there. When Malacca fell to Portugal, the Ming dynasty responded with a boycott of Portuguese goods (only trading with Malaysians), even executing Portuguese envoys/bandits (sources vary), the Ming dynasty already had previous problems with Portuguese pirates. Relations with Portugal would improve over time though.

When the Dutch took over Indonesia in the 1700’s, they segregated Chinese merchants and workers that otherwise lived among the Indonesians, culminating in the 1740 Batavia massacre where Chinese were targeted for death. While the Dutch embassy to the Qing dynasty apologized for the East India’s company’s murder of ethnic Chinese, the Qing Emperor told them that any Chinese who leaves Qing territory is no longer Chinese, so he didn’t care. The only people willing to help the Chinese were the Javanese they lived with, leading to the Java War (1741–43) against Dutch rule.

 

Ho Ho Ho: Google agrees with Temasek

Years ago, Temasek (along with big private equity firms KKR and Sequioa) invested in Indonesian unicorn Go-Jek. The company provides ride-hailing, food delivery and e-payment services.

Well now, Google has invested in Go-Jek as it seeks to further tap Indonesia’s growing internet economy. Google said on Monday it had chosen to invest in Go-Jek as “there was still more we can do to support and participate in Indonesia’s growth”, noting the country is home to the world’s fifth-largest population of internet users. It did not disclose the size of the investment.

Cybernuts should remember that Temasek and Ho Ching don’t always get things wrong (HO HO HO: How Shi**y is StanChart?).

In fact, Temasek (and GIC) like other professionally run SWFs (Think the Arabs but not the Chinese. Think the Chinese investment in Noble House that will be almost wipewd out.) often get investments more right than wrong.

Another deal Temasek (and GIC) got right: Xiaomi’s IPO will make anti-PAPpyists frus.

Only In Indonesia

Floor collapses at Jakarta stock exchange, Reuters quotes unconfirmed reports.

Dozens of people were seen running from the Indonesia Stock Exchange in central Jakarta on Monday, Metro TV showed, after unconfirmed reports of a collapsed structure, possibly a floor, inside the building.

The director of the stock exchange, Alpino Kianjaya, declined to comment on the incident …

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/15/floor-collapses-at-jakarta-stock-exchange-reports-say

Ho Ching doesn’t rest

PM and wife may be on hols but MUFG and Temasek have just done a deal that hopefully (Indon regulators willing) would see the Japanese bank acquiring a 73.8% stake in Bank Danamon from its largest existing shareholder, Temasek (Temasek wants to be rid of it’s stake after the Indons blocked a merger with DBS Indonesia.)

the Japanese bank will buy 19.9 percent from Singapore state investor Temasek Holdings [TEM.UL] for 15.875 trillion rupiah ($1.17 billion), a deal it expected to close within a few days.

MUFG will then raise the stake to 40 percent, pending regulatory approval, between the second and third quarters of 2018.

MUFG said after that, it sought approval to hold at least 73.8 percent in Indonesia’s fifth-largest bank by offering to buy out other shareholders in addition to acquiring shares from Temasek.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mufg-m-a-bank-danamon/japans-mufg-seeks-majority-of-indonesias-bank-danamon-idUSKBN1EK11H

HoHoHo: Rogue bank and the Indon military

NYT is the first media publication to report that the inquiry StanChart faces involves clients with links to the Indonesian military.

Standard Chartered Faces Inquiry Over $1.4 Billion Transfer by Indonesians

By CHAD BRAY

The London-based bank told regulators about the issue after the money was moved in 2015 by clients with links to the military.

NYT Dealbook

Achtung if got money in Indon, M’sia and India

Nomura says Indonesia, Malaysia and India could be next to implement capital controls.

2017: Put on yr parachutes and crash helmets

Jeremy Cook, chief economist at payments provider World First, said a combative US and a strong dollar would put pressure on Singapore, South Korea and other parts of the EM universe that have relied on US funding and a free and easy trading environment, as well as Indonesia and Malaysia.

The president-elect represents “an almost existential risk to trade”, said Mr Cook.

FT

The good news for S’poreans will be that things will also be bad for Indonesia and M’sia: they are unhappy when neighbours do better. In the past these countries had often provided some relief for the S’pore economy, when other drivers were not working. Not next year though.

Ah well, expect more bitter tots from that very bitter man, TJS.  And S’poreans should worry about servicing their mortgages and jobs.

Every penny counts, so stop drinking BS

Obama ate dog, snake and grasshopper

Is Obama really Chinese? No, he spent his childhood in Indonesia

When he was six, his mother took him to Indonesia, where she had married a local man. There she began what became her magnum opus: a study of peasant blacksmiths on Java. It was a typical anthropological project, an attempt to understand how another tribe sees the world.

Obama ate dog, snake and grasshopper, learnt Bahasa Indonesian, and got used to children throwing stones at his black skin. Aged 10, he returned to Hawaii, where he was born, to live with his grandparents but he continued visiting his mother in Indonesia. He rarely discusses his Indonesian years, presumably because most US voters don’t like their leaders foreign, but this formative experience as a cultural outsider makes him almost unique among US presidents.

An FT writer

Eating more wheat

When I was young, LKY had the “Eat more wheat campaign” to break the rice bowls of the Teochew rice merchants. He didn’t like them momopolising the rice trade with Thailand. He said they were gourging S’poreans.

Well it seems the Indons took his advice to eat more wheat. As for the Peenoys, they as usual imitate ang mohs.

 

The next row with Indons

Haze is Indonesia’s retaliation for helping Google avoid Indon taxes

Taz the line that the Indon VP or Indon minister will take soon.

Because Google uses S’pore as tax haven to avoid paying Indon taxes, Indons will keep on burning and killing 2,200 S’poreans a year*, a senior Indon official is sure to say. Never mind a lot more Indons are killed by haze.

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Btw, expect the cybernuts from The Idiots – S’pore (or TISG) and TRE to start screaming that the PAP govt is allowing S’poreans to die so that Google can make money. And they’ll cheer on Indonesia as they cheered on Pinoy chief gangster for dissing S’pore.

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This is what CNA, part of the constructive, nation-building media reported

Indonesia plans to pursue Alphabet Inc’s Google for five years of back taxes, and the search giant could face a bill of more than US$400 million for 2015 alone if it is found to have avoided payments, a senior tax official said.

…

Most of the revenue generated in the country is booked at Google’s Asia Pacific headquarters in Singapore. Google Asia Pacific declined to be audited in June, prompting the tax office to escalate the case into a criminal one, Hanif said.

“Google’s argument is that they just did tax planning,” Hanif said. “Tax planning is legal, but aggressive tax planning – to the extent that the country where the revenue is made does not get anything – is not legal.”

The tax office will summon directors from Google Indonesia who also hold positions at Google Asia Pacific, Hanif said, adding that it is working with the Indonesian police.

Already Google  has come under scrutiny from Australian authorities for paying tax in Singapore on advertising revenue generated in Australia, where the corporate tax rate is 30%.

Btw, Indons are saying Nasi Goreng is not a S’porean dish. http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-37408343

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*A study that estimates there were 2,200 premature deaths in Singapore due to the 2015 haze crisis is “not reflective of the actual situation”, the country’s Ministry of Health (MOH) said on Monday (Sep 19). The study by researchers from Harvard and Columbia universities in the US also said there were more than 100,000 premature deaths caused by transboundary haze from Indonesian forest fires. 

CNA

 

 

 

 

 

Palm oil prices keep on falling

S’pore, Asean on risky list

Indonesia and PinoyLand head the list, HK is a pretty safe place.

CrossBorder Capital said its Emerging Markets Risk Index fell sharply in May and is now at its lowest level since 2012, having peaked in early 2015.

This measure is based on three components: financing risk, which measures the ability of EM entities to roll over their debt; forex risk, driven by the quality of liquidity in a country and how dependent it is on central bank money; and exposure risk, which flashes a warning sign if a high proportion of investment in a country is in risk assets such as equities and corporate debt, rather than lower-risk government bonds and cash.

FT

M$, rupiah: Here we go again

El Nino: End in sight?

Grass is greener here for Asean FTs?

Look at the ptoblems they have getting jobs ar home.

In Asean, S’pore, M’sia are creditor friendly